Search found 117 matches

by Frank2012
Thu Oct 15, 2020 4:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield Chasers Rejoice: Oil Stocks at 6.44% !!!
Replies: 51
Views: 4980

Re: Yield Chasers Rejoice: Oil Stocks at 6.44% !!!

This is a pretty good thread on oil...so for those inclined to make bets on individual stocks (not a fund or ETF), what would be your stock picks?
by Frank2012
Sun May 03, 2020 9:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Collapse in Global Inflation Expectations
Replies: 106
Views: 6729

Re: The Collapse in Global Inflation Expectations

SimpleGift wrote: Thu Apr 30, 2020 12:34 pm Implications for investors in the years ahead?
I would say the investment implications of a low inflation, deflationary environment would be:

1. Save much more;
2. Spend much less; and
3. Maybe own a little more cash on the fixed income side than you normally would.
by Frank2012
Tue Apr 21, 2020 11:38 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I'm out [of the market]
Replies: 109
Views: 12155

Re: I'm out [of the market]

So Friday I decided to pull the plug and sold all stock and bound funds and put it in prime money mkt. Of course my Vanguard advisor discouraged me from taking this action. I had been invested in approx. 33% cash, 33% bonds, and 33%funds. Down approx 6% this year. The way I look at it is my wife an...
by Frank2012
Tue Apr 21, 2020 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Munger/Buffett on riding out the storm
Replies: 76
Views: 10832

Re: Munger/Buffett on riding out the storm

Buffett and Munger are shrewd businessmen. I find interviews with them interesting, but always assume they are using the interview to their advantage (much like politicians). I never take their words or demeanor at face value. I agree they Buffett and Munger are shrewd businessmen...and I think the...
by Frank2012
Tue Apr 21, 2020 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.
Replies: 151
Views: 15202

Re: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.

HEDGEFUNDIE wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 7:34 am I have three words for you, my animal fur-clad friend.

Long. Term. Treasuries.
So true HEDGFUNDIE. And notwithstanding Ray "Cash is Trash" Dalio, I'm really loving cash right now.
by Frank2012
Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100-Year Crisis Every Decade?
Replies: 22
Views: 1728

Re: 100-Year Crisis Every Decade?

Can we expect a 100-year crisis every 10-20 years or so? I expect the stock market to crash hard / go bear every 10 years or so from "something", whether it's a 100 year something or not. I build my AA with that in mind. Do you not? Good point. I do, and still get nervous anyway. I have 70/30 bond/...
by Frank2012
Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100-Year Crisis Every Decade?
Replies: 22
Views: 1728

Re: 100-Year Crisis Every Decade?

It seems like 2008 was literally the financial crisis that happens every 100-years. A But if we literally have a 100-year flood every decade or so, how does this affect our investment plan? Right now, the covid crash is the crash of the year. The fact that you thought it was the crash of the centur...
by Frank2012
Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thinking about moving Investments to Cash, Need Help
Replies: 25
Views: 1972

Re: Thinking about moving Investments to Cash, Need Help

OP, at 40-years old you are YOUNG and have decades to recover. Do nothing and ride it out would be my humble opinion....
by Frank2012
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100-Year Crisis Every Decade?
Replies: 22
Views: 1728

Re: 100-Year Crisis Every Decade?

When we discuss setting appropriate asset allocations in these boards, the standard advice is to assume you will see a 50% decline in equities *at some point*. It’s part of the Bogelheads canon. We may be heading towards that 50%, or we might not. But folks shouldn’t be as surprised as they seem by...
by Frank2012
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100-Year Crisis Every Decade?
Replies: 22
Views: 1728

Re: 100-Year Crisis Every Decade?

Where did you get the idea that significant stock market drops happen only once every hundred years? That’s never been the case. JT I meant it figuratively, not literally... substitute the concept of a "100-year flood" with whatever rare, black swan time frame you want. Also, by "black swan" I mean...
by Frank2012
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where's Warren Buffett During This Crisis?
Replies: 181
Views: 26174

Re: Where's Warren Buffett During This Crisis?

Leesbro, Yes I can point you to it, and in previous posts I've suggested you do a google or youtube search and you will easly find it. Or do a YahooFinance search...but you can find it. Interesting that Frank can't find it either. United Airlines (UAL) currently has a P/E of 2. The market cap is $6...
by Frank2012
Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Utilities - worth another look?
Replies: 192
Views: 20907

Re: Utilities - worth another look?

Portfolio 2 is not better diversified. It is concentrated in utilities. It may have had lower volatility in the past but there is the risk of a black swan in utilities. There may be good reasons to concentrate in a particular sector but you should be aware of the risks in doing so. What possible bl...
by Frank2012
Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100-Year Crisis Every Decade?
Replies: 22
Views: 1728

100-Year Crisis Every Decade?

It seems like 2008 was literally the financial crisis that happens every 100-years. And yet here we are in 2020 with a 100-year pandemic. Can we expect a 100-year crisis every 10-20 years or so? What are the odds that we'd have two potentially depression level risks so close together? A few observat...
by Frank2012
Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where's Warren Buffett During This Crisis?
Replies: 181
Views: 26174

Re: Where's Warren Buffett During This Crisis?

I have. Can you point me to one that’s less than 10 days old? Wait. What? 10 days is old to you? Are you kidding me? The last 10 days have been a lifetime in the financial world. Yes, certainly, anything from Buffett prior to 10 dats ago is old. And doesn’t address my original comment that he suspi...
by Frank2012
Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where's Warren Buffett During This Crisis?
Replies: 181
Views: 26174

Re: Where's Warren Buffett During This Crisis?

Yes, I can and did use Google and saw that. It’s not what Frank2012 said. It’s a compilation from prior interviews. He said he’s currently doing a lot of interviews. I’d like to see one. Leesbro, simply google, youtube, etc. and you will see Warren lighting up the map. I have. Can you point me to o...
by Frank2012
Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where's Warren Buffett During This Crisis?
Replies: 181
Views: 26174

Re: Where's Warren Buffett During This Crisis?

I watch and have not seen it. Can you point me to a source? [OT comment removed - moderator prudent] https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-12-quotes-coronavirus-coke-market-crashes-2020-3-1029019507 Yes, I can and did use Google and saw that. It’s not wha...
by Frank2012
Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where's Warren Buffett During This Crisis?
Replies: 181
Views: 26174

Re: Where's Warren Buffett During This Crisis?

Warren Buffet is doing a lot of interviews on CNBC and elsewhere talking book as usual. I watch and have not seen it. Can you point me to a source? [OT comment removed - moderator prudent] https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-12-quotes-coronavirus-coke-m...
by Frank2012
Sat Mar 21, 2020 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where's Warren Buffett During This Crisis?
Replies: 181
Views: 26174

Re: Where's Warren Buffett During This Crisis?

Warren Buffet is doing a lot of interviews on CNBC and elsewhere talking book as usual.
by Frank2012
Sat Mar 21, 2020 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where's Warren Buffett During This Crisis?
Replies: 181
Views: 26174

Re: Where's Warren Buffett During This Crisis?

Warren Buffet is doing a lot of interviews on CNBC and elsewhere talking book as usual.
by Frank2012
Sat Mar 21, 2020 5:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are Utilities Dropping So Fast?
Replies: 15
Views: 1783

Re: Why are Utilities Dropping So Fast?

I suspect utilities are getting crushed for all of the following reasons: 1. Investors selling safe havens (e.g., bonds, gold, utilities, etc.) in a flight to cash. 2. Fear that recession/depression will cause a slow down in energy demand, so utilities will take a hit to profits, 3. Fear that utilit...
by Frank2012
Sat Mar 21, 2020 5:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETFs at Discount to NAV: Anyone Freaking Out?
Replies: 68
Views: 4557

Re: ETFs at Discount to NAV: Anyone Freaking Out?

This kind of thing happening to bond ETFs is now 2-for-2 during big market uncertainty - 2008 and 2020. Lots of apologists saying “don’t worry, this is a feature, not a bug.” Everyone has to decide for themselves if these products are behaving in a way that makes them suitable for them, and shouldn...
by Frank2012
Fri Mar 20, 2020 5:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Munis getting slaughtered!
Replies: 194
Views: 18791

Re: Munis getting slaughtered!

justsomeguy2018 wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 1:56 pm Ugh so much for safety in bonds.

Should i sell at a loss and invest in treasuries, or just hang on and hope the govt bails them all out?
It doesn't bother me one bit that my muni bond fund is getting "slaughtered". I don't intend to bail out of it. In fact, I view this as a buying opportunity.
by Frank2012
Sat Mar 14, 2020 2:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETFs at Discount to NAV: Anyone Freaking Out?
Replies: 68
Views: 4557

Re: ETFs at Discount to NAV: Anyone Freaking Out?

No not freaking out. Which number do you believe to be more correct. The NAV calculated by some accountants at the mutual fund company or the ETF price as determined by the entire market? I guess I would trust the accountants over panicky investors (or hedge fund managers) dumping ETF shares and ca...
by Frank2012
Sat Mar 14, 2020 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wondering About Rick Ferri’s Outlook
Replies: 8
Views: 1044

Re: Wondering About Rick Ferri’s Outlook

I suspect he's busy right now helping his paying customers. I suspect that Rick Ferri has gotten a lot of paying clients by posting his advice and outlook on the Bogleheads forum. In addition, Rick has been very generous with his time on this forum, and in the media. I think he's probably not too b...
by Frank2012
Sat Mar 14, 2020 1:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETFs at Discount to NAV: Anyone Freaking Out?
Replies: 68
Views: 4557

ETFs at Discount to NAV: Anyone Freaking Out?

For those investing in ETFs, does it freak you out that an ETF can trade at a discount to Net Asset Value (NAV)? So your ETF may be worth less than the value of the actual stocks/bonds in the ETF. At least with a mutual fund, the value of the fund reflects the assets in the fund. Fidelity has some g...
by Frank2012
Sat Mar 14, 2020 1:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What stocks are you buying and holding for long term?
Replies: 19
Views: 1649

Re: What stocks are you buying and holding for long term?

Hello, The market has dropped, and we all know to buy stocks when the market has dropped big and hold for the long term (+1 to 5 years or when a target price is reached). What stocks are you now buying or considering investing in for the long term? I am considering: BA, CCL,VISA, XOM, and sbux. Sha...
by Frank2012
Sat Mar 07, 2020 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: your thoughts on buying XOM,BP,RDS,XLE as income play
Replies: 37
Views: 3605

Re: your thoughts on buying XOM,BP,RDS,XLE as income play

I have about $240 in XOM and I am down $50, wondering if I should cut my losses and sell or hang on for recovery. Yes I know it is a tiny amount but I am just dipping my toes in taxable account investing to learn the ropes. I bought XOM so i wouldnt get pissed if gas prices went up, ha. A few disco...
by Frank2012
Tue Mar 03, 2020 7:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hottest Bond Market in History Is Starting to Make Some Nervous
Replies: 63
Views: 6985

Hottest Bond Market in History Is Starting to Make Some Nervous

Interesting article on Bloomberg.... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-03/hottest-bond-market-in-history-is-starting-to-make-some-nervous?srnd=premium Thesis is that if "everyone" piles into bonds and bond funds, and then we get some good news (e.g., coronavirus not as bad as feared, n...
by Frank2012
Sat Feb 08, 2020 6:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS
Replies: 116
Views: 10979

Re: TIPS Negative Real Yield - SOLD!

Well, we'll just have to agree to disagree on this one. I also will further clarify "uneducated TIPS-hating retail investors" as "uneducated TIPS-hating retail investors and the FAs who steal their money trying to convince them that they're getting greater returns." :P Well I am okay if you want to...
by Frank2012
Sat Feb 08, 2020 2:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS
Replies: 116
Views: 10979

Re: TIPS Negative Real Yield - SOLD!

The nice thing about TIPS is that uneducated retail investors hate them (many don't understand real vs. nominal), so the rest of us can buy them at a better deal! 8-) No, it's not just "uneducated" folks or "TIPS hating retail investors" that don't use TIPS or TIPS funds. Some super-savvy retail in...
by Frank2012
Sat Feb 01, 2020 12:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE) - Good Time to Jump In?
Replies: 20
Views: 4265

Re: Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE) - Good Time to Jump In?

OP here - thanks all for the thoughtful replies. I went ahead and jumped in on Weds (the -800pt day for the DJIA). Limit order executed at $74.80 - week low was Thurs at $73.15, but I'm nor crying about jumping the gun! 😊 I take the points about market timing but I respectfully disagree - making a ...
by Frank2012
Thu Jan 02, 2020 9:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do TIPS work? How do we know?
Replies: 168
Views: 8877

Re: Do TIPS work? How do we know?

There seem to be three main modes of TIPS usage: A) buying individual TIPS (often laddered) and holding them to maturity B) buying and selling individual TIPS C) buying TIPS-focused mutual funds or ETFs e.g. VTIP (and holding or selling as one sees fit) Years ago, I experimented with C, until I obs...
by Frank2012
Wed Jan 01, 2020 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do TIPS work? How do we know?
Replies: 168
Views: 8877

Re: Do TIPS work? How do we know?

There seem to be three main modes of TIPS usage: A) buying individual TIPS (often laddered) and holding them to maturity B) buying and selling individual TIPS C) buying TIPS-focused mutual funds or ETFs e.g. VTIP (and holding or selling as one sees fit) Years ago, I experimented with C, until I obs...
by Frank2012
Sun Dec 15, 2019 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do TIPS work? How do we know?
Replies: 168
Views: 8877

Re: Do TIPS work? How do we know?

But we've not had unexpected inflation since TIPS came into existence in 1997, so we've never seen how TIPS react to unexpected inflation. I'm not so sure that TIPS will offer any protection against unexpected inflation. This is incorrect. We absolutely have had many instances of unexpected inflati...
by Frank2012
Sun Dec 15, 2019 7:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do TIPS work? How do we know?
Replies: 168
Views: 8877

Re: Do TIPS work? How do we know?

But we've not had unexpected inflation since TIPS came into existence in 1997, so we've never seen how TIPS react to unexpected inflation. I'm not so sure that TIPS will offer any protection against unexpected inflation. This is incorrect. We absolutely have had many instances of unexpected inflati...
by Frank2012
Sat Dec 14, 2019 1:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do Outdoor Patio Heaters Work (Out Door Order Curve Patio Heater)
Replies: 3
Views: 620

Re: Do Outdoor Patio Heaters Work (Out Door Order Curve Patio Heater)

I would say if the heating radius suits your needs - the heat supplied will definitely make for a comfortable atmosphere. Let us know how it goes if you move forward. Well I had some mad money so I bought the Out Door Order Curve Patio Heater. Fired it up and wife and I have been sitting out on the...
by Frank2012
Sat Dec 14, 2019 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do TIPS work? How do we know?
Replies: 168
Views: 8877

Re: Do TIPS work? How do we know?

Be careful with what your definition of "do TIPS work" is. Does TIPS protect against expected inflation? The answer is not so well. Stocks most likely will do a better job with that. Does TIPS protect against unexpected inflation ? The answer yes it does. https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/ISGCTIPS....
by Frank2012
Sat Dec 14, 2019 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do TIPS work? How do we know?
Replies: 168
Views: 8877

Re: Do TIPS work? How do we know?

Be careful with what your definition of "do TIPS work" is. Does TIPS protect against expected inflation? The answer is not so well. Stocks most likely will do a better job with that. Does TIPS protect against unexpected inflation ? The answer yes it does. https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/ISGCTIPS....
by Frank2012
Sat Dec 14, 2019 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do TIPS work? How do we know?
Replies: 168
Views: 8877

Re: Do TIPS work? How do we know?

That being said, TIPS only 'hedge' the funds used to buy the TIPS, not the rest of your portfolio. This is a critical point lost on many people. This fact makes TIPS a poor hedge against inflation for the overall portfolio unless most of the portfolio is invested in TIPS. Call_Me_Op and willthrill8...
by Frank2012
Sat Dec 14, 2019 11:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do TIPS work? How do we know?
Replies: 168
Views: 8877

Do TIPS work? How do we know?

Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are Treasury bonds whose principal amount is adjusted for inflation. TIPS were first auctioned in January 1997. Since 1997, interest rates have gone down and inflation has been low. So it seems to me that TIPS have never experienced an inflationary envi...
by Frank2012
Mon Dec 02, 2019 6:30 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do Outdoor Patio Heaters Work (Out Door Order Curve Patio Heater)
Replies: 3
Views: 620

Do Outdoor Patio Heaters Work (Out Door Order Curve Patio Heater)

Fellow Bogleheads:

I'm interested in buying an outdoor patio heater such as the Out Door Order Curve Patio Heater (MSRP: $1700) as shown here:

http://www.outdoororder.com/the-curve/


Does anyone own an outdoor patio heater? Does it work? Was it worth the price?


Thanks!
by Frank2012
Thu Nov 21, 2019 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Hedge Against a Minksy Moment?
Replies: 7
Views: 1037

Best Hedge Against a Minksy Moment?

What is the best hedge against a Minsky Moment (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsky_moment)? 1. Cash? 2. Treasury bonds? 3. Gold? 4. Total Bond Market Fund? 5. Money Market Fund? 6. 50/50 Stock/Bond portfolio and time in the market (i.e., set asset mix, rebalance and otherwise do nothing)? 7. Time ...
by Frank2012
Mon Sep 02, 2019 7:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bad time to buy total bond?
Replies: 32
Views: 4828

Re: Bad time to buy total bond?

It seems like bond indexes are at all time highs or so. Is now a bad time to invest in total bond? Interest rates are rising some were saying, so best not to? Or is it interest rates are falling and may even go negative, so best to? Or nobody knows nothing so just stay the course, buying the total ...
by Frank2012
Mon Sep 02, 2019 7:34 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VALIC Fixed Interest Option (FB 125)...Any Good?
Replies: 3
Views: 1108

Re: VALIC Fixed Interest Option (FB 125)...Any Good?

Thanks Darkhelmet and Megbad,

Yep, it looks like VALIC FB 124 is NOT a stable value fund, but is instead an annuity backed by the financial might of AIG.

I'm taking a pass on this and will just stick with Vanguard Total Bond.

Thank you!
by Frank2012
Fri Aug 16, 2019 8:40 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VALIC Fixed Interest Option (FB 125)...Any Good?
Replies: 3
Views: 1108

VALIC Fixed Interest Option (FB 125)...Any Good?

Does anyone have the VALIC Fixed Interest Option fund (ticker FB 125)? I have this fund in my 401k along with the Vanguard Total Bond fund. I was thinking of making an investment to further diversify my fixed income holdings. However, I'm concerned by some of the following statements in the fund des...
by Frank2012
Mon Jul 08, 2019 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: The Historical Imperative For International Diversification
Replies: 347
Views: 21929

Re: Larry Swedroe: The Historical Imperative For International Diversification

Really sad to see such comments Is the word helpful not mean good? Nitpicking if I have ever seen it. And everyone should know by now that I have no control over the titles chosen. FYI my title was historical perspective helps to avoid biases. (:-)) One other comment, what I find interesting is tha...
by Frank2012
Sat Jun 29, 2019 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Zero Interest Rates Forever...if true, is it actionable?
Replies: 25
Views: 3424

Re: Zero Interest Rates Forever...if true, is it actionable?

Forever was meant to be hyperbole. But it may well be that rates stay low for a long time, and rising federal debt will definitely provide extra incentive to keep them low. We are heading I to interesting times. I actually thought the article was insightful. I agree, and I find the article an inter...
by Frank2012
Thu Jun 27, 2019 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A time to EVALUATE your jitters
Replies: 431
Views: 417489

Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

Jitters? I have high anxiety! I'm 30% stocks and 70% bonds/cash...this allows me to sleep at night.
by Frank2012
Thu Jun 27, 2019 9:07 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Stock / Bond Allocation Sweet Spot
Replies: 26
Views: 3289

Re: Stock / Bond Allocation Sweet Spot

For me, the sweet spot is 30% stocks / 70% bonds...helps me sleep a night
by Frank2012
Thu Jun 27, 2019 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Zero Interest Rates Forever...if true, is it actionable?
Replies: 25
Views: 3424

Re: Zero Interest Rates Forever...if true, is it actionable?

Great comments from my fellow Bogleheads! In particular, save more, live within your means, and work longer. Can't argue with that....