Search found 776 matches

by Scooter57
Thu Nov 08, 2018 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Whats your number to walk away?
Replies: 301
Views: 45432

Re: Whats your number to walk away?

From observing my elders I figured out that when you "walk away" from engaging in the work that gave your life meaning you are almost certain to deteriorate. Everyone I watched in the generation above me who retired had grandiose plans. They were going to write books. They were going to do executive...
by Scooter57
Thu Aug 16, 2018 8:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Maturing Credit Union 3% CD's this year
Replies: 52
Views: 5932

Re: Maturing Credit Union 3% CD's this year

One thing to keep in mind with NWFCU is that their early withdrawal penalty can be higher than other institutions. Their 60 month has a 1 year EWP.
by Scooter57
Wed Aug 15, 2018 6:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Maturing Credit Union 3% CD's this year
Replies: 52
Views: 5932

Re: Maturing Credit Union 3% CD's this year

A 3% 15 month CD turned up this week for residents of RI, CT, and MA at the Pawtucket CU. My friends in manufacturing tell me that the prices of raw materials have surged thanks to the new tariffs. This will start pushing consumer prices up pretty soon and that is going to ramp up inflation. If that...
by Scooter57
Tue Aug 14, 2018 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Automating TLH at Vanguard
Replies: 11
Views: 1132

Re: Automating TLH at Vanguard

How wise is it to install a plugin to your browser that could potentially be harvesting your Vanguard login and account info and directing it elsewhere?

Mind you, I'm not saying this one does that but without reading the code a person would have no way of knowing.
by Scooter57
Mon Jul 23, 2018 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are socially responsible funds just another marketing ploy?
Replies: 25
Views: 2315

Re: Are socially responsible funds just another marketing ploy?

When I saw pharmaceutical companies notorious for selling products they know harm and kill people listed as "socially responsible" just because they recycle their garbage I decdied the whole concept is, indeed, a scam.
by Scooter57
Tue Jul 17, 2018 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3% APY 14 month CD (New England States Only)
Replies: 6
Views: 1009

Re: 3% APY 14 month CD (New England States Only)

The catch here is that you have to have the money you move in in a bank account that will work with ACH. They won't let me wire money or send them a check. The CD is selling today and tomorrow only, so if your money is in the Vanguard Money Market fund you woudl have to wire the money today into a b...
by Scooter57
Sun Jul 01, 2018 4:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Share Buybacks and Value Destruction
Replies: 10
Views: 1169

Re: Share Buybacks and Value Destruction

<snip> Better yet, because we borrowed, we still have all our prior cash. We can give high-performing workers bonuses and raises. Or raise starting wages to attract stellar talent. Or ramp up R&D or open new plants. Or some of all of that. [/quote] Let's see. I'm a board member and/or top executive...
by Scooter57
Sat Jun 30, 2018 2:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Share Buybacks and Value Destruction
Replies: 10
Views: 1169

Re: Share Buybacks and Value Destruction

The biggest problem is that executives of big companies earn so much more from manipulating the stock price than they do from selling product that huge amounts of money have been borrowed to pay for both dividends and buybacks. Much less attention is given to improving the product and innovating. Wa...
by Scooter57
Thu Jun 28, 2018 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund (VMMXX) breaks 1.00 (% not $)
Replies: 236
Views: 45326

Re: VMMXX at 2%

I had a lot of money in the Prime Money Market Fund in 2007-2008. I slept like a baby while many of my friends who were about to turn 60 were panicking. Now that I'm a decade older, that peace of mind is even more valuable. The government-supplied inflation number may be very different from your PER...
by Scooter57
Mon Jun 18, 2018 10:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mean Reversion in Long-Term Stock Returns?
Replies: 25
Views: 2287

Re: Mean Reversion in Long-Term Stock Returns?

High frequency programmed trading, negligible trading fees, the move to replacing dividends with stock buybacks that unequally reward top management at the expense of long-term stockholders, and government intervention in the bond markets are all factors that only came to the fore in the past decade...
by Scooter57
Tue Jun 12, 2018 5:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Maturing Credit Union 3% CD's this year
Replies: 52
Views: 5932

Re: Maturing Credit Union 3% CD's this year

I called NWFCU Moday and was told by the CSR that Heritage Club members can not withdraw without penalty.
by Scooter57
Sun Jun 10, 2018 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Maturing Credit Union 3% CD's this year
Replies: 52
Views: 5932

Re: Maturing Credit Union 3% CD's this year

You can add beneficiaries to CDs at NWFCU which will let you cover more than $250K with insurance.
by Scooter57
Wed May 23, 2018 7:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Vanguard switching all accounts to brokerage accounts?
Replies: 90
Views: 17732

Re: Why is Vanguard switching all accounts to brokerage accounts?

I just got the dreaded conversion banner on my account this morning. I saw it a couple years ago and ignored it, but I'm wondering if this time they will force me. Any insight as to whether anything has changed that will make me have to do this? My old rep who I had dealt with for years passed away ...
by Scooter57
Wed May 16, 2018 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5 yr CD up to 3.41% APY, NO EWP for seniors in IRA, but with catch
Replies: 43
Views: 6030

Re: 5 yr CD up to 3.41% APY, NO EWP for seniors in IRA, but with catch

If you are investing outside of an IRA, you can make a deposit to a NWFCU share account at any Credit Union Coop Branch in the US. So you can open the accounts in the morning, drive to your local Coop branch, deposit the money into the NWFCU share account at your local CU (if it's a Coop member), ph...
by Scooter57
Mon Apr 23, 2018 2:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Making decisions based on past performance works (except when it doesn’t)"
Replies: 17
Views: 2408

Re: "Making decisions based on past performance works (except when it doesn’t)"

There is always a chance that 95% of people surveyed believeing that stocks go up in the long term might be a signal on the order of the "Death of Equities" article that kicked off the upward trend of the last 35 years. But in reverse. I remember my mom, who was a serious investor long before that 1...
by Scooter57
Mon Apr 23, 2018 7:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Vanguard Web Site Down?
Replies: 121
Views: 9449

Vanguard Internal Server Error on Sign In

[merged into existing thread - moderator prudent] I'm unable to access my accounts today. So I phoned my Flagship representative, who as usual was unavailable, and then asked to speak to another rep. He told me that yes, there were problems with the web site that they were working on with no time g...
by Scooter57
Thu Apr 19, 2018 9:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your Money Or Your Life
Replies: 49
Views: 7453

Re: Your Money Or Your Life

You can live frugally and very comfortably if you do the following: 1. Move out of a huge city with insane housing prices. Life is so much more pleasant when you aren't in a high stress environment that you will find a lot of necessities, aren't. There are plenty of smaller cities and tows scattered...
by Scooter57
Wed Apr 11, 2018 8:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much money can a CPA save you?
Replies: 52
Views: 6543

Re: How much money can a CPA save you?

My mother used two different CPAs. The first cost her money by making serious mistakes in her taxes that resulted in a large IRS penalty. The second talked her into establishing several completely unnecessary trusts with himself as the trustee. He charged about $8000 a year per trust for accounting ...
by Scooter57
Thu Mar 08, 2018 10:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Amazon Can Blow Up Asset Management
Replies: 31
Views: 5930

Re: How Amazon Can Blow Up Asset Management

The idea that the publishers formed a cartel missed hugely important points. Amazon was selling books at a huge loss for years, in order to destroy all their competitors who couldn't just keep issuing stock to pay their bills. They were losing $2 on every copy my publishing company sold through them...
by Scooter57
Wed Mar 07, 2018 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Amazon Can Blow Up Asset Management
Replies: 31
Views: 5930

Re: How Amazon Can Blow Up Asset Management

As someone who has been a vendor to Amazon since it began I'll just say that Amazon's pattern is to start out by offering you all kinds of too good to resist benefits, all possible because they can sell at a loss and just keep making more money selling shares. But once they get that 80% market share...
by Scooter57
Wed Mar 07, 2018 2:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe’s New Book Available: Reducing Risk Of Black Swans
Replies: 130
Views: 15512

Re: Larry Swedroe’s New Book Available: Reducing Risk Of Black Swans

I would only venture to attempt to predict a world series winner by watching the teams playing during the last month of the season. Any reference to statistics will only mislead. We Red Sox fans knew we were doomed going into the last two playoffs despite all appearances because we saw the team flag...
by Scooter57
Tue Mar 06, 2018 7:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Regrets / Pearls
Replies: 37
Views: 6932

Re: Regrets / Pearls

Pearls Don't wait for retirement to live the life you want to live. Your 50 year old self will be working very happily at 70 if you don't work mainly for money in your 30s but to do the work you know you were put here to do. The happier you are with what you do all day long, the less money you need....
by Scooter57
Mon Mar 05, 2018 3:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe’s New Book Available: Reducing Risk Of Black Swans
Replies: 130
Views: 15512

Re: Larry Swedroe’s New Book Available: Reducing Risk Of Black Swans

I simply do not see how the whole factor thing is anything but very fancy backtesting. Yes, it worked over many periods in the past, but it may very well have stopped working now for many reasons, starting with the way that computer trading has changed markets and moving on to "once everyone knows s...
by Scooter57
Mon Mar 05, 2018 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (January 2018)
Replies: 28
Views: 3613

Re: madsinger monthly report (January 2018)

I've also found the newsletter helpful. I learned about it here from Madsinger's report and subscribed five years ago, when I was just starting to study investing. I only took it for a year, but did follow his advice to invest in Prime Cap Oddyssey Agressive Growth (POAGX) which I have continued to ...
by Scooter57
Mon Mar 05, 2018 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe’s New Book Available: Reducing Risk Of Black Swans
Replies: 130
Views: 15512

Re: Larry Swedroe’s New Book Available: Reducing Risk Of Black Swans

I am mystified as to why this forum seems to worship Swedroe when he is continually changing course and recommending new portfolios that are supposed to give the investor some advantage. The portfolios are based on academic research which is, in turn, always based on backtesting, since no one can re...
by Scooter57
Fri Mar 02, 2018 8:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Didn't get alerts from Vanguard
Replies: 14
Views: 2352

Re: Didn't get alerts from Vanguard

Did you check your spam folder? I am getting all expected alerts.
by Scooter57
Thu Mar 01, 2018 5:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard CFP rcommendations of non-index funds?
Replies: 10
Views: 1707

Re: Vanguard CFP rcommendations of non-index funds?

My Flagship advisor completely ignored my specific questions and gave me a list of Vanguard funds to move all my assets into. I don't remember the specifics as it was five years ago, but it wasn't the Three Fund portfolio or what Bernstein was recommending. I had already begun studying investing but...
by Scooter57
Wed Feb 28, 2018 6:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard CFP rcommendations of non-index funds?
Replies: 10
Views: 1707

Re: Vanguard CFP rcommendations of non-index funds?

When I have had a consultation with their advisors in the past (a perk of my Vanguard membership level), the "advisor" made no real effort to determine my goals or assess my actual need and ability to take risk. They had a single standard portfolio to recommend and put a lot of pressure on me to swi...
by Scooter57
Wed Feb 28, 2018 8:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5-year CD vs. 6-year CD; double EWP with longer maturity
Replies: 21
Views: 1487

Re: 5-year CD vs. 6-year CD; double EWP with longer maturity

My experience with direct CDs is that the bank wants to renew them automatically upon maturity. If I get a "special rate" for some odd period, like 37 months, it will renew at an unfavorable rate for another 37 months unless I take action to keep that from happening. With a brokered CD, the money j...
by Scooter57
Sat Feb 24, 2018 4:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Atlantic Article: This Is What Life Without Retirement Savings Looks Like
Replies: 26
Views: 5094

Re: Atlantic Article: This Is What Life Without Retirement Savings Looks Like

Many people, especially from the socioeconomic class that tends to visit investing forums, have an inflated idea of how much money people need to have to live comfortable, meaningful lives. I live in an area full of unspoiled nature which has never offered decent jobs. Our median family income is $5...
by Scooter57
Fri Feb 23, 2018 11:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund (VMMXX) breaks 1.00 (% not $)
Replies: 236
Views: 45326

Re: Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund (VMMXX) breaks 1.00 (% not $)

Prime money market has average maturity of 47 days.

Purepoint Financial and Live Oak Bank currently offer 1.60% apr savings accounts online. But the way things are going if Prime Money Market keeps rising, they bank rates are going to have to rise considerably to remain competitive.
by Scooter57
Fri Feb 23, 2018 5:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why Vanguard short-term bond instead of CD
Replies: 31
Views: 4596

Re: why Vanguard short-term bond instead of CD

No, I can't. My bank doesn't offer it... their CD rates aren't particularly great either. Why limit yourself to one bank? There are dozens of banks and Federal credit unions open to depositors around the country. The worst service I've experienced has been with local institutions both small and lar...
by Scooter57
Wed Feb 21, 2018 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why Vanguard short-term bond instead of CD
Replies: 31
Views: 4596

Re: why Vanguard short-term bond instead of CD

Nothing wrong with a CD, but I can use Federal Money Market and Short-Term Treasury Index (or longer term) fund and tune the relative duration to match a CD ladder of similar length and get the simplicity of not having additional accounts floating around to manage, and Vanguard accounts make naming...
by Scooter57
Wed Feb 21, 2018 10:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why investors shouldn’t panic over falling bond prices
Replies: 36
Views: 7023

Re: Why investors shouldn’t panic over falling bond prices

So the 2.90% SEC yield on VBTLX isn't that bad, right? Better than CDs right now. Thanks for all your help understanding this! Absolutely not. Go have a look at Vanguard's summary of the funds performance which you'll find here: https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/list#/mutual-funds/asset-cl...
by Scooter57
Wed Feb 21, 2018 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why Vanguard short-term bond instead of CD
Replies: 31
Views: 4596

Re: why Vanguard short-term bond instead of CD

There are quite a few rate rise scenarios where a bank CD with an early withdrawal penalty of 3 tor 6 months interest comes out way ahead of a bond fund paying the same interest. There is a cost to trading brokered CDs or bonds on Vanguard which may be as high as $250. Beyond that, bond funds have a...
by Scooter57
Mon Feb 19, 2018 3:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why investors shouldn’t panic over falling bond prices
Replies: 36
Views: 7023

Re: Why investors shouldn’t panic over falling bond prices

Just a wild guess, but it may have something to do with the financial incentives management have. If your compensation is tied to the rate of growth in assets under management (or even worse, growth of new money coming into the firm) It may explain all the Vanguard ads touting low expenses. That so...
by Scooter57
Sun Feb 18, 2018 11:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why investors shouldn’t panic over falling bond prices
Replies: 36
Views: 7023

Re: Why investors shouldn’t panic over falling bond prices

Vanguard is not an unbiased source now that they have put a fortune into attracting new customers. If the new customers pull their money outoff bond funds it's a problem for them. If you rely on the advice of anyone without understanding exactky what you own and how it is expected to work you will m...
by Scooter57
Sun Feb 18, 2018 11:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 6 and 12 MO CD's or Treasury Bills
Replies: 13
Views: 3237

Re: 6 and 12 MO CD's or Treasury Bills

Any reason why you can't use the NASA Credit Union 2.25% 11mo CD?
by Scooter57
Sun Feb 18, 2018 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Fund Distributions as Interest Rates Rise
Replies: 3
Views: 824

Re: Bond Fund Distributions as Interest Rates Rise

Another factor is how fast the bonds age out of the fund. I.e. what percentage of the whole fund is bonds bought at current rates. Also, if investors are taking money out of the fund at a much higher than normal rate, that must force the fund (and all other funds like it) to sell bonds even if it wo...
by Scooter57
Sun Feb 18, 2018 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yields Spreads and the Economy
Replies: 8
Views: 1052

Re: Yields Spreads and the Economy

Fears of inflation are not just based on the Fed. Oil prices have risen 50% since I filled my basement oil tank at the end of this past August. Crude was a $40/a barrel while it is now over $60. I paid 50% more for my last heating oil fill. Gas prices haven't risen as fast, but probably will as refi...
by Scooter57
Sun Feb 18, 2018 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the most the stock market has ever been down in 5 year period?
Replies: 19
Views: 3352

Re: What is the most the stock market has ever been down in 5 year period?

The Nikkei 225 in Japan hit a peak in 1989 and was still down 80% 20 years later. Now, 29 years later it is still down 37% from the peak. This was without a war or a economic collapse. Other more complex factors play a huge role along with the extremely inflated valuations. http://www.macrotrends.ne...
by Scooter57
Sun Feb 18, 2018 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GMO forecast
Replies: 26
Views: 3197

Re: GMO forecast

I don't think its illogical to take a risk when there's an expected return higher than that risk. Life is just that, from our ancestors venturing out to hunt down a mammoth to us investing in stocks. The difference between investing and gambling seems to be that gambling is a zero-sum game (with fe...
by Scooter57
Sat Feb 17, 2018 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GMO forecast
Replies: 26
Views: 3197

Re: GMO forecast

Alternatively, you can conclude that if very intelligent value based investors are able to make a strong case for a permabear position that does not match actual stock progress, it shows what a completely illogical gamble investing really is. The Bogleheads philosophy rests on the idea that the mark...
by Scooter57
Sat Feb 17, 2018 11:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bberg: bond bulls say they'll have the last laugh
Replies: 16
Views: 2412

Re: Bberg: bond bulls say they'll have the last laugh

The investing landscape was very different in the early 1970s, so different that you can't really draw useful conclusions. Commissions were huge to buy anything. Mutual funds had huge fees and commissions too. This limited how often people traded and even who invested. There were no money market fun...
by Scooter57
Sat Feb 17, 2018 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why investors shouldn’t panic over falling bond prices
Replies: 36
Views: 7023

Re: Why investors shouldn’t panic over falling bond prices

Consider the source. Alliance Bernstein has a stake in keeping investors buying bonds and bond funds. All this backtestng is bogus because a 1% rate increase when bonds are at 8% is very different than one at 2%. Plus we are in a completely different market environment now with people day trading bo...
by Scooter57
Wed Feb 14, 2018 5:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Misguided Beliefs of Financial Advisors
Replies: 15
Views: 3428

Re: The Misguided Beliefs of Financial Advisors

Real world dialogue: Person is an educated person with a college degree who inherited a good chunk of money. Person: My financial advisor does great for me. (Pause for preening.) Me: What is their training? Person: I don't know. A friend recommended her. Me: Does she have any certifications? Person:...
by Scooter57
Mon Feb 12, 2018 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has Seeking Alpha Become Worthless?
Replies: 29
Views: 8410

Re: Has Seeking Alpha Become Worthless?

To be fair, Seeking Alpha is a crowd-sourced platform. There is no one message. I made quite a bit of money using the value strategy promoted by one of their more visible authors. I only stopped using it because a) I'm getting to the age where my judgement might begin to deteriorate without my knowi...
by Scooter57
Sun Feb 11, 2018 8:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Barron's Magazine
Replies: 15
Views: 1794

Re: Barron's Magazine

They sent me some kind of freebie deal some years ago. I found it useful only in that any company they profiled enthusiastically seemed to tank over the next few months--a negative indicator like Cramer enthusing. Otherwise a complete waste of time. Worse they insisted on sending me huge printed pap...
by Scooter57
Sun Feb 11, 2018 8:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has Seeking Alpha Become Worthless?
Replies: 29
Views: 8410

Re: Has Seeking Alpha Become Worthless?

Their business model hasn't been able to adapt to the switch from desktop to mobile among their readership. They were paying too much for their content in view of the ad revenue they were getting. Much of their traffic is people who treat them as a forum and hang out in comment sections. If you've e...
by Scooter57
Thu Feb 08, 2018 5:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Volatility as a cause of volatility?
Replies: 18
Views: 1517

Re: Volatility as a cause of volatility?

Once again investors, including a lot of institutional traders, have invested heavily in cockamamie derivatives no one really understands. That brought back bad memories. Plus, no one is sure which institutions took the XIV bath and whether their losses will ripple.