Search found 1336 matches

by Scooter57
Sat Jul 04, 2020 3:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Have muni bonds become too dangerous?
Replies: 52
Views: 5122

Re: Have muni bonds become too dangerous?

What is different this time is that never before have ALL issuers been dealing with a huge loss of the revenue needed to support their bonds simultaneously. Before it was one city here or one state there, but not all at the same time.
by Scooter57
Fri Jul 03, 2020 8:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Allan Roth: Muni bond default risk
Replies: 33
Views: 2133

Re: Allan Roth: Muni bond default risk

Hudson, the only issue with waiting for the drop to sell is that these muni funds go up a penny at a time but drop like a rock, 10 or 20 cents a day when there is worrisome news. I still prefer paying tax on gains to harvesting tax losses.
by Scooter57
Fri Jul 03, 2020 6:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Allan Roth: Muni bond default risk
Replies: 33
Views: 2133

Re: Allan Roth: Muni bond default risk

Not short munis. Short corporates. The yield on short munis is not worth the risk. As far as the Fed goes, it is impossible to discuss the issues without getting into matters which cannot be discussed due to forum rules. Suffice it to say I don't think the Fed or any one else would bail out muni bon...
by Scooter57
Fri Jul 03, 2020 5:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should I change asset allocation to feel less anxiety
Replies: 54
Views: 3519

Re: Should I change asset allocation to feel less anxiety

@Behave Vanguard is NOT a nonprofit organization. The funds are supposedly "owned" by the shareholders, but the company earns money from other activities. It is increasingly pushing their for-profit advisory services. Furthermore it is not a public company so we don't know how top: executives are pa...
by Scooter57
Fri Jul 03, 2020 1:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Allan Roth: Muni bond default risk
Replies: 33
Views: 2133

Re: Allan Roth: Muni bond default risk

I am glad to see Allan Roth stating something I have been saying for a while. The impact of the shutdown and the chilling effect of an uncontrolled epidemic on the sources of municipal income is not something that you can see in backtesting, because this time really is different. Previous muni bond ...
by Scooter57
Fri Jul 03, 2020 1:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should I change asset allocation to feel less anxiety
Replies: 54
Views: 3519

Re: Should I change asset allocation to feel less anxiety

OP also mentions concern about job stability with the current pandemic. Without knowing any details, the general suggestion for all entering or in the workforce is to keep up with technology as it affects your work and make sure you are viewed as a proactive, positive force for workplace changes th...
by Scooter57
Fri Jul 03, 2020 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4000
Views: 304432

Re: Coronavirus and the market

The people who are sitting home collecting unemployment and supposedly taking in more than they get working are those whose jobs pay the very lowest wages who don't earn enough to invest as every penny they make goes to feed, clothe, and house their families. The idea that they are sitting at home i...
by Scooter57
Fri Jul 03, 2020 12:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund is changing
Replies: 113
Views: 20313

Re: Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund is changing

They did this to me some years ago with the Tax Managed International Fund which I had switched into from the Developed Markets index fund. They merged it with Developed markets. Before that they changed my Utilities Income fund into the Dividend Growth Fund. Completely different strategy and lower ...
by Scooter57
Thu Jul 02, 2020 3:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is investment a competition?
Replies: 43
Views: 2348

Re: Is investment a competition?

Competitive thinking is what leads to the "never enough" mindset that makes people always dissatisfied with what they have. Figure out what you need to live comfortably without anxiety. If your savings and investment strategy gets you there, you are all set. Money solves the problems money solves, b...
by Scooter57
Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pros and cons of quality factor at this time.
Replies: 13
Views: 638

Re: Pros and cons of quality factor at this time.

The very high valuations on quality stocks would make me think twice. If you combine metrics for both quality and valuation, you end up with far fewer stocks to choose from than the 800 in the Vanguard quality factor ETF. My own screening along those lines turned up only a few stocks that met both q...
by Scooter57
Mon Jun 29, 2020 2:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ready for (forced) early retirement?
Replies: 40
Views: 4614

Re: Ready for (forced) early retirement?

Use your IT skills for something of your own. You are way too young to retire. You'll be bored after you recover from the stressful job and worse, you will find most people you would want to socialze with are still working and not around during the day. I was in IT way back when and made the decisio...
by Scooter57
Mon Jun 29, 2020 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pros and cons of quality factor at this time.
Replies: 13
Views: 638

Re: Pros and cons of quality factor at this time.

I will modestly take the other side. "Value" and "Quality" may be mushy subjective ideas that are prone to marketing abuse. "Value Factor" and "Quality Factor" are well defined. Let us not muddy the waters unnecessarily. I would suggest you try to identity the return factors and risks you want to t...
by Scooter57
Mon Jun 29, 2020 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pros and cons of quality factor at this time.
Replies: 13
Views: 638

Re: Pros and cons of quality factor at this time.

The problem seems to me to lie in how you define "Quality." There are as many ways to define it as there are companies putting together seductive packages for investors, many of whom are too naive to look under the hood or are prevented from doing it by the limited amount of information the ETF prov...
by Scooter57
Fri Jun 26, 2020 6:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Outlook on Muni Funds
Replies: 14
Views: 1559

Re: Outlook on Muni Funds

Ratings are not kept up-to-date. The pandemic has created unforseen havoc that can leave prudent, well run municipalities looking at huge unforseen deficits. College stadiums at big sports schools, airports, downtown parking garages in once busy downtowns, college dorms at once packed schools, etc e...
by Scooter57
Fri Jun 26, 2020 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Outlook on Muni Funds
Replies: 14
Views: 1559

Re: Outlook on Muni Funds

The Fed may buy muni bonds, but they can't pay the interest due on them. I would not be surprised to see interest payments on quite a few muni bonds get suspended. I have cut my muni holdings for that reason.
by Scooter57
Sat Jun 13, 2020 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hertz (bankrupt) may issue new stock
Replies: 74
Views: 6448

Re: Hertz (bankrupt) may issue new stock

Day traders are who is buying this stock and pushing up its price. A classic madness of crowds. But it was irresponsible for them to approve the stock issue. It's musical chairs and whoever ends up holding these shares when the music stops runs out of greater fools--and money.
by Scooter57
Thu Jun 11, 2020 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Podcasts, websites or blogs for seniors with limited income?
Replies: 5
Views: 361

Re: Podcasts, websites or blogs for seniors with limited income?

A search for blogs with the word "frugal" turns up many possibilities, though they are rarely about investing. None of my retired friends who have not lived lifestyles focusing on acquiring wealth invest. They do follow the frugal strategies.
by Scooter57
Thu Jun 11, 2020 2:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on today's sell-off?
Replies: 194
Views: 16239

Re: Thoughts on today's sell-off?

This whole market has been propped up by faith in the Fed to the point where nothing else matters. If something should occur that damages that faith we will be in completely new territory. This belief that the Fed can keep asset prices rising without regard to the health of the companies that make u...
by Scooter57
Thu Jun 11, 2020 12:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on today's sell-off?
Replies: 194
Views: 16239

Re: Thoughts on today's sell-off?

This recent surge occurred on low volume, with much of it attributed to retail day traders. There have been so many messages posted all over the web to the effect of, "Now that I've recovered most of my losses I'm going to take money off the table." The news that opening the economy in several aggre...
by Scooter57
Thu Jun 11, 2020 12:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Digital Advisor "algorithm change"
Replies: 57
Views: 4760

Re: Vanguard Digital Advisor "algorithm change"

Can you double check that this wasn't a mistake. I have been given misinformation by Vanguard staff in the past that was contradicted the next time I called in. That is such an egregious change that I would call in several times and ask to go up the ladder of accountability, i.e. talk to the rep's m...
by Scooter57
Thu Jun 11, 2020 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead Threads Market Up/Down Sell
Replies: 5
Views: 383

Re: Boglehead Threads Market Up/Down Sell

Older investors who have accumulated enough for a comfortable retirement may sell not out of panic but to preserve gains. There is nothing that says that a person must continue to take risks with their life savings when they no longer have the ability to earn more money. There is no one size fits al...
by Scooter57
Mon May 25, 2020 8:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I have no risk tolerance: where am I supposed to keep my money?
Replies: 73
Views: 6739

Re: I have no risk tolerance: where am I supposed to keep my money?

Alternatively, build your own business and earn enough that you don't have to piggyback on the earnings of megacorps, while preserving what you earn in a CD ladder. The idea that the only way to get enough money to retire is to invest, hoping the market goes up, is a fallacy. We have done very well ...
by Scooter57
Tue May 05, 2020 5:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Moving from High taxed state to no income tax state
Replies: 44
Views: 3155

Re: Moving from High taxed state to no income tax state

We did the tour of all the low tax states and came home deeply grateful to live where we live, taxes and all. There are so many intangibles that make up the feel of place. Things we take for granted did not exist in these other places, like quiet small towns and houses with land, all just a short dr...
by Scooter57
Tue May 05, 2020 3:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Getting 300k cash. What should we do with it?
Replies: 23
Views: 4005

Re: Getting 300k cash. What should we do with it?

Go to Ally.com and buy two 11 month no penalty CDs at $150k each. Put a different Payable on death beneficiary on each one. You can close these CDs any time online in minutes and have your money in two days. I have done this with no problems.

This gives you time to decide how to deploy
by Scooter57
Tue Apr 21, 2020 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?
Replies: 239
Views: 16758

Re: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?

So back in December of 2018 I looked at market valuations and the growth of my stock index fund investments over the past couple decades and cut way down on my stock investments as I still had a very nice gain from the previous decade's investing. The market did shoot back up, based on what struck ...
by Scooter57
Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Active v. passive funds in a crisis
Replies: 11
Views: 1097

Re: Active v. passive funds in a crisis

In a crisis nowadays you have the problem that stocks are all chained together in thousands of ETFs, so if there is bad news about one company that has a large position in many ETFs, those ETFs all fall and drag down all the other stocks in their indexes even if they are doing fine. That is why you...
by Scooter57
Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's Not Different This Time
Replies: 353
Views: 33866

Re: It's Not Different This Time

We are not missing the point. Layoffs are happening in already stressed industries and disproportionately among small businesses like independently owned restaurants and stores. While no one expects 30% unemployment to last, there will be a significant number of businesses for which this was the fin...
by Scooter57
Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?
Replies: 239
Views: 16758

Re: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?

Agree with all of this. I will be looking at the market valuation based on PE from 2019 earnings. When it looks cheap to me based on what companies made in 2019 I plan to Dca back in. To me, cheap is PE under 15 and lower. Do yourself a favor and evaluate "valuation" using more criteria than just p...
by Scooter57
Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Active v. passive funds in a crisis
Replies: 11
Views: 1097

Re: Active v. passive funds in a crisis

There are some very high quality actively managed funds. Many long-time posters on this forum are enthusiastic investors in the Wellington Fund, for example. Many of Vanguard's bond funds are actively managed, which is a plus, because bonds can be analyzed intelligently by someone who understands th...
by Scooter57
Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will Dividends get reduce substantially
Replies: 2
Views: 352

Re: Will Dividends get reduce substantially

Look at the portfolio holdings of your funds to see exactly which stocks they own. You can find this list on the Portfolio tab of the Vanguard web page for the fund. Oil companies will most likely be cutting dividends, airlines, entertainment companies and other companies that are under severe press...
by Scooter57
Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is it not possible to build a recession proof portfolio?
Replies: 22
Views: 1671

Re: Why is it not possible to build a recession proof portfolio?

A huge piece of a truly recession-proof portfolio is Personal Capital, which is the useful skills you have mastered that are of value to other people. This is too often forgotten when people talk about growing assets and planning for a comfortable retirement. Coming out of our educational system it ...
by Scooter57
Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mutual fund vs ETF Expense Ratio
Replies: 6
Views: 331

Re: Mutual fund vs ETF Expense Ratio

ETF prices have gotten out of whack with NAVs in ways that work against the majority of investors when things get busy. When everyone is buying, you pay a premium, when everyone is selling the price drops to a discount. I think it is worth paying the very small difference in expense ratio to buy a f...
by Scooter57
Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cramer on buying index funds during downturn
Replies: 56
Views: 5965

Re: Cramer on buying index funds during downturn

When I started studying investing some seven years ago and following a number of individual stocks to get a better feel for what stocks represented and how they behaved, I watched Cramer every evening for a month or two. What I noticed was that almost any time he got enthusiastic about a stock and h...
by Scooter57
Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Goldmans View - $110 S&P 500 EPS in 2020 (-33%), then $170 EPS in 2021 (+55%) - Near Term 2k S&P Going to 3k
Replies: 12
Views: 1534

Re: Goldmans View - $110 S&P 500 EPS in 2020 (-33%), then $170 EPS in 2021 (+55%) - Near Term 2k S&P Going to 3k

Goldman's business is selling the public stock and collecting huge fees from running IPOs. Take their estimates of anything with that in mind. Or check their past predictions to see how accurate they are. From what I've read in Bloomberg over the past three months, the high worth clients of many fin...
by Scooter57
Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's Not Different This Time
Replies: 353
Views: 33866

Re: It's Not Different This Time

I think I've only seen one definition of "different" on this thread and that is permanent destruction of capital. Maybe there are more but that's what I usually think of when I start hearing "it's different this time." The definition of "permanent destruction of capital" has a lot to do with how ol...
by Scooter57
Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Young people: Only thing that matters now is maintaining income
Replies: 30
Views: 3290

Re: Young people: Only thing that matters now is maintaining income

A friend of mine who was an attorney in a very wealthy Connecticut community told me that many of her clients who lived in great splendor were only a month or two of unemployment away from financial ruin because everything they owned was heavily financed. In 2008 a lot of those people lost everythi...
by Scooter57
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Federal Estimated Tax Payments
Replies: 6
Views: 527

Re: Federal Estimated Tax Payments

Thanks! Until my state delays payments for quarterlies and sales taxes, I will probably just go ahead and do my April quarterlies in April because it is too much hassle to keep all these differing deadlines in mind. At my age, remembering anything not routine gets to be a challenge <sigh>
by Scooter57
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Young people: Only thing that matters now is maintaining income
Replies: 30
Views: 3290

Re: Young people: Only thing that matters now is maintaining income

Live beyond your means all you want, and then when you lose your job you were convinced was utterly safe, and your home gets foreclosed, and your car towed away by the repo man, and your children get sick and you are afraid to go to the doctor because you can't afford the deductibles, you will final...
by Scooter57
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 and Dow Futures Hit Limit Down After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open
Replies: 155
Views: 13404

Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

True, but where were the high level meetings with financial experts and representatives from all the constituencies involved? The plan just rejected did not require companies to retain their workers or abstain from buybacks. It did not include measures to address the shortages of supplies. And it d...
by Scooter57
Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where will you be?
Replies: 10
Views: 978

Re: Where will you be?

Younger, more productive people are less susceptible to the virus, with the retiree-aged cohort being more susceptible. The 4% death rate is higher than flu season, but nothing like the historical plagues. The situation is more sad than the "end of world" about which some in the media are hinting, ...
by Scooter57
Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: all value portfolio to gain better returns per Paul Merriman?
Replies: 9
Views: 449

Re: all value portfolio to gain better returns per Paul Merriman?

The problem with investing in "value" stocks is that there are as many definitions of value as there are value investors. The mutual funds and ETFs that call themselves "Value" funds use very simple easily screened parameters to determine what is value, and as a result many of their holdings are, by...
by Scooter57
Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Federal Estimated Tax Payments
Replies: 6
Views: 527

Re: Federal Estimated Tax Payments

Are we talking about the quarterly tax payments for Schedule Cs (and Ds) here? If so, can someone point me to where they postponed this payment? Thanks!

[OT comment removed by admin LadyGeek]
by Scooter57
Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 and Dow Futures Hit Limit Down After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open
Replies: 155
Views: 13404

Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

FWIW, some investors might be relieved that the decision to spend several trillion dollars was not made in only 36 hours based on some hasty back of the envelope calculations without consultations with experts who might be able to offer thoughtful input. The 2008 response took time and drew on the ...
by Scooter57
Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 and Dow Futures Hit Limit Down After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open
Replies: 155
Views: 13404

Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

FWIW, some investors might be relieved that the decision to spend several trillion dollars was not made in only 36 hours based on some hasty back of the envelope calculations without consultations with experts who might be able to offer thoughtful input. The 2008 response took time and drew on the b...
by Scooter57
Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What "happens" on the stock exchange trading floors?
Replies: 12
Views: 1674

Re: What "happens" on the stock exchange trading floors?

Apparently a lot, if not all of it, was for tourists and to give a backdrop for cable TV investing shows. Oh, and to have a place wherec guys from IPOs and other celebrities could ring a bell now and then. It has become a piece of theater to a put human face on what is actually a huge network of com...
by Scooter57
Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's Not Different This Time
Replies: 353
Views: 33866

Re: It's Not Different This Time

I agree 100%. I have posted several times that a knowledge of history puts it all in perspective. The coronavirus is no doubt a bad thing (I am a physician and very much in the front line thick of it right now) with likely large economic displacement, however it is nowhere near what has transpired ...
by Scooter57
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflationary effects pending?
Replies: 40
Views: 3343

Re: Inflationary effects pending?

We kept inflation at bay by exporting manufacturing and well paid manufacturing jobs to countries where people would work for what would be slave wages in the developed world and where child labor is still permitted. We are now learning the down side of not having factories in the US and European co...
by Scooter57
Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's ok to do nothing
Replies: 20
Views: 2306

Re: It's ok to do nothing

If you are old, the basis your heirs will pay tax on is the value of your holdings the day you died. Tax loss harvesting now will not be an issue for their basis in inherited taxable stock. Unless, of course the tax laws change.
by Scooter57
Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?
Replies: 239
Views: 16758

Re: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?

So back in December of 2018 ... [...] The market is now considerably below where I sold in 2018 .... Really? VTSAX (i.e. the US Total Stock Market) was up more than 42% since 12/21/2018 by mid-February 2020. As of today VTSAX is down less than 5% since late December 2018. That 42% gain meant nothin...
by Scooter57
Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If Stocks WILL Go Lower Than it is Now...
Replies: 133
Views: 11407

Re: If Stocks WILL Go Lower Than it is Now...

Go look at a graph of the S&P 500 for the 10 years after July 2000 and tell me how much missing out an investor experienced over the next years if they stayed in long CDs, which were paying well over 5%. Then look at the graoh of the Dow from 1930 to 1950. That is 20 years where investors would have...