Search found 926 matches

by Scooter57
Fri Feb 08, 2019 12:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Navy Federal CU 6 month 3% CD vs NASA CU 15 mo 3.20% CD
Replies: 11
Views: 1467

Re: Navy Federal CU 6 month 3% CD vs NASA CU 15 mo 3.20% CD

I already have a NASA account, so buying additional CDs has been easy. They have a history of offering better than average rates.
by Scooter57
Fri Feb 08, 2019 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When to add safety?
Replies: 10
Views: 996

Re: When to add safety?

rasta wrote:
Fri Feb 08, 2019 12:06 pm
safety from what?

in the long run stocks are actually safer than bonds
Except when they aren't.

Russian stocks in 1918 for example.

Japanese stocks in 1989.
by Scooter57
Thu Feb 07, 2019 4:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Navy Federal CU 6 month 3% CD vs NASA CU 15 mo 3.20% CD
Replies: 11
Views: 1467

Re: Navy Federal CU 6 month 3% CD vs NASA CU 15 mo 3.20% CD

What about the 3.25% 25 mo NASA CD? If rates stagnate or drop a longer maturity might be nice to have.
by Scooter57
Sat Feb 02, 2019 6:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Prime Money Market yield over 2.5%
Replies: 148
Views: 22323

Re: Vanguard Prime Money Market yield over 2.5%

NASA FCU just raised its rates on 15, 25, and 49 mo Certificates. You need to add $10k new money to rollover a maturing CD.
by Scooter57
Sat Jan 26, 2019 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why the odd-duration CDs?
Replies: 13
Views: 1289

Re: Why the odd-duration CDs?

Unfortunately, after a brief period this fall when the rates on the brokered CDs were competitive, they've dropped to where there is a strong incentive to go with the credit union CDs. The highest brokered CDs right now that aren't callable pay 3.15%. You can get up to 3.63% on a CU CD. This has bee...
by Scooter57
Fri Jan 25, 2019 7:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why the odd-duration CDs?
Replies: 13
Views: 1289

Re: Why the odd-duration CDs?

These odd CDs always roll over to standard length CDs with very low rates. Many people don't understand how to keep them from rolling over. Strange but true. I've known some in person.
by Scooter57
Thu Jan 24, 2019 6:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reasons to own Vanguard ETFs over Admiral shares?
Replies: 94
Views: 7924

Re: Reasons to own Vanguard ETFs over Admiral shares?

When the market gets crazy, ETF prices can diverge significantly from the actual NAV of the mutual fund. When I was watching a few ETFs I saw this happen more than once. With the fund, the price you get is the price of the underlying securities at the close. With ETFs you can also be tempted to set ...
by Scooter57
Thu Jan 24, 2019 6:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I left Wealthfront
Replies: 71
Views: 18647

Re: Why I left Wealthfront

Good thing Vanguard's concept of low-cost investing hasn't changed since the company was founded. Unfortunately, as I have learned over the 30+ years I've been investing in Vanguard funds, they do change the investment thesis of their funds just enough to be painful to those of us invested in taxab...
by Scooter57
Thu Jan 24, 2019 5:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield difference between total bond and MMF less than 1%
Replies: 94
Views: 6535

Re: Yield difference between total bond and MMF less than 1%

And when the bond yield goes up, you lose money (but make it back up again in dividends), whereas you just keep getting more with the money market. And the inverse is true and rates decrease. Are you better off in money markets in a rising yield environment and bond funds in a falling? Dunno. I sus...
by Scooter57
Thu Jan 17, 2019 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement savings new research
Replies: 29
Views: 6118

Re: Retirement savings new research

To make this work the person must ensure they don't get laid off and must also maintain the physical and mental skills needed to do their job.

This can be harder to do then the retirement theorists think.
by Scooter57
Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle has died at age 89
Replies: 856
Views: 49223

Re: John Bogle is dead at 89

A truly good man, still reaching out to help others with his brilliance right up until the end. A life well lived.
by Scooter57
Wed Jan 16, 2019 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Forward P/E ratios and subsequent 10-year returns
Replies: 6
Views: 533

Re: Forward P/E ratios and subsequent 10-year returns

Here's an interesting analysis of this question:

Seeking Alpha: Analysts Do A Great Job Predicting The Past. The Future? Not So Much.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/386679 ... uture-much
by Scooter57
Wed Jan 16, 2019 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Around 43K in dividends last year - feel good about it ?
Replies: 174
Views: 16338

Re: Around 43K in dividends last year - feel good about it ?

Buybacks only benefit those who sell, who happen to be execs paid with huge amounts of stock options. The buy and hold investor is sold the myth that the price per share will rise, but go look at big buyback users like IBM to see how this does not work out in reality.
by Scooter57
Wed Jan 16, 2019 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PG&E Bonds
Replies: 49
Views: 5161

Re: PG&E Bonds

... Not to be alarmist or anything. Just wondering what happens when banks have to come up with half a trillion dollars. . . Bloomberg says that Vanguard holds about $415 million of municipal bonds issued on behalf of PG&E Corp. ... and all but $2 million of the bonds held by Vanguard are backed by...
by Scooter57
Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When do brokered CD rates typically increase?
Replies: 9
Views: 1146

Re: When do brokered CD rates typically increase?

As I understand it the secondary market for brokered CDs is very slim, so to sell your CD you'd have to offer a higher interest rate than is available with new issues. Plus there are the transaction fees which at Vanguard are $1 or $2 per thousand up to a limit of $250 per transaction. (The cost is ...
by Scooter57
Tue Jan 15, 2019 10:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PG&E Bonds
Replies: 49
Views: 5161

Re: PG&E Bonds

Hmmmm.

Who are "Banks of last resort?"

What impact does this bankruptcy have on their balance sheets?

Is this the Black Swan that tips over the banking system 2008 style?

Not to be alarmist or anything. Just wondering what happens when banks have to come up with half a trillion dollars. . .
by Scooter57
Sat Jan 12, 2019 7:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Around 43K in dividends last year - feel good about it ?
Replies: 174
Views: 16338

Re: Around 43K in dividends last year - feel good about it ?

If you don't have other sources of income to live on than your investments a case could be made that you came out ahead because you didn't have to sell stock shares in December at their lowest prices to pay your bills. An argument could be made that the fund managers and companies sold stock shares...
by Scooter57
Fri Jan 11, 2019 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Around 43K in dividends last year - feel good about it ?
Replies: 174
Views: 16338

Re: Around 43K in dividends last year - feel good about it ?

If you don't have other sources of income to live on than your investments a case could be made that you came out ahead because you didn't have to sell stock shares in December at their lowest prices to pay your bills. And if a portfolio of non dividend paying stocks you were comparing yours to was ...
by Scooter57
Fri Jan 11, 2019 9:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REGISTRATION FOR 2019 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST [Entry deadline has passed]
Replies: 674
Views: 12935

Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2019 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Are those last 4 entries typos? The order of magnitude is way off. They might be skewing the average. It would be nice to see the median and standard deviation, too.
by Scooter57
Fri Jan 11, 2019 9:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard explains the increase in ex-us allocation
Replies: 34
Views: 4668

Re: Vanguard explains the increase in ex-us allocation

Decades of investing in international have provided me with more tax loss harvesting opportunities than I care to remember. I can't help wondering if Vanguard is recommending these funds because the execs benefit when they grow. Though the funds are supposedly "owned" by shareholders the execs are a...
by Scooter57
Wed Jan 09, 2019 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round
Replies: 105
Views: 12569

Re: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round

<< If we did get to where money was becoming worthless good luck on trying to keep yourself fed with shavings from your Krugerrands.>> The goal would be to use the gold to get to somewhere else. <<Arable land, a seed store, and a barn full of milkable animals would probably be the best investment f...
by Scooter57
Wed Jan 09, 2019 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round
Replies: 105
Views: 12569

Re: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round

Gold is a very poor hedge. It is taxed as a collectible and the trading costs are obscene. If we did get to where money was becoming worthless good luck on trying to keep yourself fed with shavings from your Krugerrands. Arable land, a seed store, and a barn full of milkable animals would probably b...
by Scooter57
Wed Jan 09, 2019 9:11 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: HRBlock Appears to be Calculating Tax Wrong 1/4/2019
Replies: 25
Views: 2226

Re: HRBlock Appears to be Calculating Tax Wrong 1/4/2019

I ran my numbers through TurboTax, which didn't calculate the 20% QBI deduction but with it added in manually the tax calculation matched. So there is something I missed but what it might be is a mystery. Right clicking in HRBlock did not bring up any information. I did my best to try to find where ...
by Scooter57
Tue Jan 08, 2019 11:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A cursory look at valuations
Replies: 32
Views: 2615

Re: A cursory look at valuations

TTAC looks like a very one note kind of approach with a high expense ratio and a very short history. Not the end of thing I would ever buy.
by Scooter57
Mon Jan 07, 2019 6:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Total Bond Market over CDs?
Replies: 22
Views: 2610

Re: Why Total Bond Market over CDs?

There is no need to mark to market a CD bought directly as you know exactly what the early withdrawal penalty is and can easily find out what the rate would be if you broke it early. https://www.depositaccounts.com/tools/ewp-calculator.aspx There is also a helpful calculator that tells you if you wi...
by Scooter57
Mon Jan 07, 2019 3:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Total Bond Market over CDs?
Replies: 22
Views: 2610

Re: Why Total Bond Market over CDs?

There are threads on this very topic at least weekly. I would suggest you search the archives and read the regular arguments for both sides. There is a good case to be made for both sides. My short take. Bond funds automatically reap the benefit of increasing rates. No. They don't. The NAV of the b...
by Scooter57
Mon Jan 07, 2019 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A cursory look at valuations
Replies: 32
Views: 2615

Re: A cursory look at valuations

Valuing stocks based solely on P/E makes as much sense as determining you health only by taking your temperature. There are a lot more factors to be considered. Yes!. Like the ever important interest rates, which are at vey low levels. What else you have in mind? Kindly elaborate. H :greedy When I ...
by Scooter57
Sun Jan 06, 2019 9:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A cursory look at valuations
Replies: 32
Views: 2615

Re: A cursory look at valuations

Valuing stocks based solely on P/E makes as much sense as determining you health only by taking your temperature. There are a lot more factors to be considered.
by Scooter57
Sun Jan 06, 2019 9:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The next 20 years for stocks should be a lot better..
Replies: 10
Views: 2614

Re: The next 20 years for stocks should be a lot better..

Barron's sent me free magazines for a while. Every company they waxed enthusiastic about did poorly going forward. I see no reason to believe any of their predictions. They parrot the analysts who serve Wall Street and whose mission is to get the public to buy the stock offerings they underwrite. No...
by Scooter57
Sat Jan 05, 2019 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Investing Risk
Replies: 18
Views: 1470

Re: Total Investing Risk

Is "investing" glorified gambling? It has had much better odds up to now. A long bear market is not out of the question. It depends a lot on how much you've saved, how much you spend, and how old you are. I think most people have no choice but to invest and take what the market gives them so I woul...
by Scooter57
Fri Jan 04, 2019 9:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Was it a mistake to move into PenFed 5-year CDs a year ago?
Replies: 61
Views: 8701

Re: Was it a mistake to move into PenFed 5-year CDs a year ago?

The CD had no principal risk, unlike the muni fund. Some of us like to not have to worry sbout what happens if rates rise or investors shun munis for some reason--like changes to the tax code. I was quite pleased with my big slug of PenFed 3% CDs.
by Scooter57
Fri Jan 04, 2019 9:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: HRBlock Appears to be Calculating Tax Wrong 1/4/2019
Replies: 25
Views: 2226

Re: HRBlock Appears to be Calculating Tax Wrong 1/4/2019

I would suggest opening your taxes in H&R Block again, then selecting the Forms menu item. Pick "Open Forms", the open your 1040. Scroll down to line 11a. Right mouse button on the input field with the amt, and pick "Jump to related". It gives the ways this value can be calculated. I show 6 ways. T...
by Scooter57
Fri Jan 04, 2019 9:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: HRBlock Appears to be Calculating Tax Wrong 1/4/2019
Replies: 25
Views: 2226

Re: HRBlock Appears to be Calculating Tax Wrong 1/4/2019

If all you have is income taxed at the regular rate (e.g., not capital gains), the calculation is as simple as originally described. The formula is: tax = bracket_rate * income - discount, where bracket_rate is the rate that your last dollar is taxed at, income is total income discount is the amt y...
by Scooter57
Fri Jan 04, 2019 6:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: HRBlock Appears to be Calculating Tax Wrong 1/4/2019
Replies: 25
Views: 2226

Re: HRBlock Appears to be Calculating Tax Wrong 1/4/2019

I checked the filing status first thing and it is correct. The number would still be wrong with another status. This particular calculation only involves the ordinary income which was calculated properly. The point about the interview is probably germane I guess I'll run the numbers through TurboTax...
by Scooter57
Fri Jan 04, 2019 6:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to compare CD to Bond fund
Replies: 14
Views: 1095

Re: How to compare CD to Bond fund

Bsnkrate.com is not as useful as https://depositaccounts.com if you are looking for the best CD rates.

The Penfed early withdrawal penalty is brutal. There are others listed that are better.
by Scooter57
Fri Jan 04, 2019 6:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10240
Views: 1806502

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

All we've learned is that just about any news can move the stock market up or down 3.something percent. Monday a bad report about something else could take it back down as much as it just went up. What I look at is the bigger picture. The big downs that almost recover followed by another and another...
by Scooter57
Fri Jan 04, 2019 3:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: HRBlock Appears to be Calculating Tax Wrong 1/4/2019
Replies: 25
Views: 2226

HRBlock Appears to be Calculating Tax Wrong 1/4/2019

I am trying to estimate my taxes carefully this year before I pay my quarterly withholding so that I don't end up with a huge refund that may be delayed due to the shutdown or if someone else files with my SSN (as happened to a neighbor.) I am using the PC version of the HRBlock downloadable softwar...
by Scooter57
Thu Jan 03, 2019 11:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: investing Uncomfortably
Replies: 88
Views: 7872

Re: Larry Swedroe: investing Uncomfortably

One of the first things I learned when I started reading this forum was that though DFA funds had slightly outperformed Vanguard broad market index funds in the past the advantage disappeared when you took into account another factor: the advisory fees you had to pay to get access to those funds. I ...
by Scooter57
Thu Jan 03, 2019 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10240
Views: 1806502

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Not sure I understand the question - but yes, ultimately every stock will reflect the actual underlying business. Obviously today in this particular case I don't think it does, that's why I bought. That is the theory. But "Ultimately" can be a very long time and throughout that time the price of a ...
by Scooter57
Thu Jan 03, 2019 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10240
Views: 1806502

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Let's also remember that Apple's free cash flow is around 70 bn per year, so trading at or below 10x free cash flow now. Sweet. Was $70B. Their dropping guidance implies dropping revenues going forward and dropping cash. Beyond that, do you really think the price of this particular stock bears any ...
by Scooter57
Wed Jan 02, 2019 7:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gus Sauter: the next "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast guest
Replies: 28
Views: 2172

Re: Gus Sauter: the next "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast guest

Ask him why for the past 5 years Vanguard has become so aggressive in growing the company to the point that it is straining infrastructure and making old timers like me (with Vanguard since 1988) concerned that chasing AUM may be of more benefit to executives whose salaries have an AUM component tha...
by Scooter57
Wed Jan 02, 2019 7:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10240
Views: 1806502

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I just read there is now twice as much corporate debt as there was ten years ago. That's not quite as troubling a statistic as is sounds if you adjust for public company growth and equity prices. The total market cap of all public companies is around triple what it was 10 years ago. You should not ...
by Scooter57
Wed Jan 02, 2019 5:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10240
Views: 1806502

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

The next shoe is going to involve corporate debt of U.S. companies that overindulged in issuing bonds when rates were low. The more intelligent parts of the financial press have been talking for months about the escalating amount of corporate debt due to very cheap money and how it is going to all h...
by Scooter57
Wed Jan 02, 2019 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10240
Views: 1806502

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

The amazing thing to me is that rates have only recently gotten even back to having a positive real-return. True! But the worrysome thing is that a decade of those super low rates seems to have educated investors that "money wants to be free." As we have seen in the print media business (books, mag...
by Scooter57
Wed Jan 02, 2019 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The big Value Trap year of 2018
Replies: 35
Views: 3691

Re: The big Value Trap year of 2018

Valuethinker, I'm not sure anything as sophisticated as machine learning is picking the stocks in the so called value indexes. The criteria looked like they mist be very crude. P/E, price to book, etc with little consideration given to debt level and none to how the earnings wete being achieved and ...
by Scooter57
Wed Jan 02, 2019 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10240
Views: 1806502

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I see an ironic and paradoxical situation developing. People believe stock should drop because rates rise. This causes the Fed to signal fewer rate rises. There is a slight recovery because of the belief the Fed will pause rate rises. So the market goes back up, giving the Fed no reason to pause ra...
by Scooter57
Tue Jan 01, 2019 6:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Internet effect on markets?
Replies: 2
Views: 273

Re: Internet effect on markets?

My guess is that people invested in funds and ETFs who are watching prices change by the minute are much more likely to behave impulsively and gamble now than they were in the past when you saw the price s of stocks, funds, and indexes in the paper the next morning or on a big day in the evening new...
by Scooter57
Tue Jan 01, 2019 4:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: should I be in VTFMX or VTI/BND as new retiree?
Replies: 5
Views: 667

Re: should I be in VTFMX or VTI/BND as new retiree?

Given the low yield of BND and the various issues surrounding corporate debt and interest rates, it might be worth considering a ladder of CDs. Check out rates available at depositaccounts.com and from your brokerage. A five year ladder could work well. If you buy from online banks and CDs watch the...
by Scooter57
Tue Jan 01, 2019 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The big Value Trap year of 2018
Replies: 35
Views: 3691

Re: The big Value Trap year of 2018

At the beginning of the year I used some software to apply various valuation metrics to the stocks in the Vanguard value Index Fund and then went more deeply into evaluating the few stocks I fond that looked potentially undervalued. I learned that by the metrics I have found useful when stock pickin...
by Scooter57
Tue Jan 01, 2019 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REGISTRATION FOR 2019 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST [Entry deadline has passed]
Replies: 674
Views: 12935

Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2019 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

1905

Since I'm always wrong when I guess anything this should ensure we all have a prosperous year.