Search found 741 matches

by Scooter57
Mon Feb 19, 2018 3:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why investors shouldn’t panic over falling bond prices
Replies: 14
Views: 2839

Re: Why investors shouldn’t panic over falling bond prices

Just a wild guess, but it may have something to do with the financial incentives management have. If your compensation is tied to the rate of growth in assets under management (or even worse, growth of new money coming into the firm) It may explain all the Vanguard ads touting low expenses. That so...
by Scooter57
Sun Feb 18, 2018 11:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why investors shouldn’t panic over falling bond prices
Replies: 14
Views: 2839

Re: Why investors shouldn’t panic over falling bond prices

Vanguard is not an unbiased source now that they have put a fortune into attracting new customers. If the new customers pull their money outoff bond funds it's a problem for them. If you rely on the advice of anyone without understanding exactky what you own and how it is expected to work you will m...
by Scooter57
Sun Feb 18, 2018 11:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 6 and 12 MO CD's or Treasury Bills
Replies: 10
Views: 931

Re: 6 and 12 MO CD's or Treasury Bills

Any reason why you can't use the NASA Credit Union 2.25% 11mo CD?
by Scooter57
Sun Feb 18, 2018 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Fund Distributions as Interest Rates Rise
Replies: 3
Views: 657

Re: Bond Fund Distributions as Interest Rates Rise

Another factor is how fast the bonds age out of the fund. I.e. what percentage of the whole fund is bonds bought at current rates. Also, if investors are taking money out of the fund at a much higher than normal rate, that must force the fund (and all other funds like it) to sell bonds even if it wo...
by Scooter57
Sun Feb 18, 2018 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yields Spreads and the Economy
Replies: 8
Views: 843

Re: Yields Spreads and the Economy

Fears of inflation are not just based on the Fed. Oil prices have risen 50% since I filled my basement oil tank at the end of this past August. Crude was a $40/a barrel while it is now over $60. I paid 50% more for my last heating oil fill. Gas prices haven't risen as fast, but probably will as refi...
by Scooter57
Sun Feb 18, 2018 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the most the stock market has ever been down in 5 year period?
Replies: 19
Views: 2944

Re: What is the most the stock market has ever been down in 5 year period?

The Nikkei 225 in Japan hit a peak in 1989 and was still down 80% 20 years later. Now, 29 years later it is still down 37% from the peak. This was without a war or a economic collapse. Other more complex factors play a huge role along with the extremely inflated valuations. http://www.macrotrends.ne...
by Scooter57
Sun Feb 18, 2018 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GMO forecast
Replies: 17
Views: 1565

Re: GMO forecast

I don't think its illogical to take a risk when there's an expected return higher than that risk. Life is just that, from our ancestors venturing out to hunt down a mammoth to us investing in stocks. The difference between investing and gambling seems to be that gambling is a zero-sum game (with fe...
by Scooter57
Sat Feb 17, 2018 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GMO forecast
Replies: 17
Views: 1565

Re: GMO forecast

Alternatively, you can conclude that if very intelligent value based investors are able to make a strong case for a permabear position that does not match actual stock progress, it shows what a completely illogical gamble investing really is. The Bogleheads philosophy rests on the idea that the mark...
by Scooter57
Sat Feb 17, 2018 11:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bberg: bond bulls say they'll have the last laugh
Replies: 16
Views: 2110

Re: Bberg: bond bulls say they'll have the last laugh

The investing landscape was very different in the early 1970s, so different that you can't really draw useful conclusions. Commissions were huge to buy anything. Mutual funds had huge fees and commissions too. This limited how often people traded and even who invested. There were no money market fun...
by Scooter57
Sat Feb 17, 2018 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why investors shouldn’t panic over falling bond prices
Replies: 14
Views: 2839

Re: Why investors shouldn’t panic over falling bond prices

Consider the source. Alliance Bernstein has a stake in keeping investors buying bonds and bond funds. All this backtestng is bogus because a 1% rate increase when bonds are at 8% is very different than one at 2%. Plus we are in a completely different market environment now with people day trading bo...
by Scooter57
Wed Feb 14, 2018 5:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Misguided Beliefs of Financial Advisors
Replies: 15
Views: 2812

Re: The Misguided Beliefs of Financial Advisors

Real world dialogue: Person is an educated person with a college degree who inherited a good chunk of money. Person: My financial advisor does great for me. (Pause for preening.) Me: What is their training? Person: I don't know. A friend recommended her. Me: Does she have any certifications? Person:...
by Scooter57
Mon Feb 12, 2018 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has Seeking Alpha Become Worthless?
Replies: 20
Views: 3358

Re: Has Seeking Alpha Become Worthless?

To be fair, Seeking Alpha is a crowd-sourced platform. There is no one message. I made quite a bit of money using the value strategy promoted by one of their more visible authors. I only stopped using it because a) I'm getting to the age where my judgement might begin to deteriorate without my knowi...
by Scooter57
Sun Feb 11, 2018 8:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Barron's Magazine
Replies: 15
Views: 1490

Re: Barron's Magazine

They sent me some kind of freebie deal some years ago. I found it useful only in that any company they profiled enthusiastically seemed to tank over the next few months--a negative indicator like Cramer enthusing. Otherwise a complete waste of time. Worse they insisted on sending me huge printed pap...
by Scooter57
Sun Feb 11, 2018 8:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has Seeking Alpha Become Worthless?
Replies: 20
Views: 3358

Re: Has Seeking Alpha Become Worthless?

Their business model hasn't been able to adapt to the switch from desktop to mobile among their readership. They were paying too much for their content in view of the ad revenue they were getting. Much of their traffic is people who treat them as a forum and hang out in comment sections. If you've e...
by Scooter57
Thu Feb 08, 2018 5:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Volatility as a cause of volatility?
Replies: 18
Views: 1146

Re: Volatility as a cause of volatility?

Once again investors, including a lot of institutional traders, have invested heavily in cockamamie derivatives no one really understands. That brought back bad memories. Plus, no one is sure which institutions took the XIV bath and whether their losses will ripple.
by Scooter57
Mon Feb 05, 2018 6:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard REIT fund changes objective, name & index
Replies: 15
Views: 2391

Re: Vanguard REIT fund changes objective, name & index

I had no problem with the switch to the CRSP indexes. But when Tax Managed International becane Developed Markets I was much less happy.
by Scooter57
Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard REIT fund changes objective, name & index
Replies: 15
Views: 2391

Re: Vanguard REIT fund changes objective, name & index

This is why I won't ever again buy any Vanguard funds except the total stock market/s&p index funds in my taxable account. They changed fund objectives and constituents on me several times and I ended up with holdings that weren't what I'd signed up for that cost me taxes when I got out of them. Let...
by Scooter57
Tue Jan 23, 2018 2:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can a divorced spouse claim SS on the record of an ex- who died too young to claim?
Replies: 5
Views: 839

Can a divorced spouse claim SS on the record of an ex- who died too young to claim?

As I understand it, a person who was married for more than ten years and did not remarry has the choice of claiming Social Security on their own record or their ex-'s record. But what if the higher earning spouse died before they were 62? Can the surviving divorced spouse who is of retirement age cl...
by Scooter57
Fri Jan 19, 2018 10:23 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why I canceled my Connexus 3% 60 Month CD application
Replies: 2
Views: 864

Why I canceled my Connexus 3% 60 Month CD application

I signed up for the 3% Connexus Credit Union CD online yesterday. I have bought many CDs from credit unions online over the past few years. Because this is currently the highest rate available, I expected there would be some delay. These credit unions often get overwhelmed when they have a very good...
by Scooter57
Wed Jan 17, 2018 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Amount of Treasury Bonds to Double -- Does Supply/Demand Apply Here?
Replies: 4
Views: 734

Re: Amount of Treasury Bonds to Double -- Does Supply/Demand Apply Here?

There's an interesting article on Bloomberg today about how much of the supposedly offshore corporate hoardings have been stashed in treasuries and will now be taken out and put into stock buybacks. This puts money only into the pockets of those who sell stock--executives paid in stock options espec...
by Scooter57
Tue Jan 16, 2018 7:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone pondering moving to a cheaper place and downsizing?
Replies: 63
Views: 4615

Re: Anyone pondering moving to a cheaper place and downsizing?

Many years ago, when I decided to give up my high paying corporate job for lifestyle reasons, I did just that. Our house price had doubled in 3 years. We sold it and moved to a much cheaper condo rental. The invested proceeds from the sale of the house paid our rent for the next few years. I was abl...
by Scooter57
Tue Jan 16, 2018 7:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Amount of Treasury Bonds to Double -- Does Supply/Demand Apply Here?
Replies: 4
Views: 734

Amount of Treasury Bonds to Double -- Does Supply/Demand Apply Here?

from: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bond-market-braces-for-1-trillion-tsunami-of-treasurys-this-year-2018-01-16 "The Deutsche Bank strategists estimate the actual amount of debt issuance in 2018 will be closer to $1.15 trillion, doubling the $559 billion from last year. The lion’s share will ste...
by Scooter57
Sun Jan 14, 2018 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax Exempt Bond Funds - Considerations after Tax Reform
Replies: 12
Views: 1925

Re: Tax Exempt Bond Funds - Considerations after Tax Reform

Houseblend, Because stock dividends and capital gains are treated separately by the tax code, they aren't relevant to this discussion. But bond or CD income would be, making this of particular interest to retirees with taxable assets and a preferance for fixed income: For example, a retiree who has ...
by Scooter57
Sat Jan 13, 2018 4:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shares Are Wildly Overpriced. But Bonds May Be Even Worse
Replies: 35
Views: 5788

Re: Shares Are Wildly Overpriced. But Bonds May Be Even Worse

That graph of bond fund prices since the mid-1980s Nisiprius loves so much is irrelevant. Bond yields have steadily declined since that period with only little blips where they rose for a short period of time. CDs were paying 12% at the time that graph starts out. They were paying 10% years later. I...
by Scooter57
Sat Jan 13, 2018 4:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax Exempt Bond Funds - Considerations after Tax Reform
Replies: 12
Views: 1925

Re: Tax Exempt Bond Funds - Considerations after Tax Reform

David, Thanks! That makes a lot of sense. The other thing that strikes me is that there is more incentive now to move taxable income to tax-exempt bonds for people who are nearing 157K in taxable income because of that sharp 8% surge in the tax rate that kicks in at that level, from 24% to 32%. The ...
by Scooter57
Fri Jan 12, 2018 4:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax Exempt Bond Funds - Considerations after Tax Reform
Replies: 12
Views: 1925

Tax Exempt Bond Funds - Considerations after Tax Reform

I haven't seen any recent discussions here about whether there are new issues to consider when buying tax exempt bond funds now that tax reform has passed, though the recent rise in the Vanguard Muni Money Market Fund has come up for discussion. Quick math shows me that the tax-equivalent yield of m...
by Scooter57
Tue Jan 02, 2018 8:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did everyone in the early 80s have their money in CDs?
Replies: 77
Views: 6289

Re: Did everyone in the early 80s have their money in CDs?

Back in the early 1980s when I had my first decent job my mother, who was quite the investor, told me to put my savings in the T Rowe Price Prime Money Market Fund. This was something brand new and it was paying 17% at the time I invested, which was enough to keep up with the rampant inflation. I on...
by Scooter57
Fri Dec 22, 2017 1:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [Pass-Thru Entities Questions Thread]
Replies: 140
Views: 9649

Re: Queston about pass through income in new tax law

An important question would be, would tax exempt income be included in the total income that defines whether a pass-thru business owner has gone over that $157,500/$315,000 limit? And what about capital gains from sale of taxable stock and or funds? That could make it important to sell taxable inves...
by Scooter57
Tue Dec 19, 2017 12:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: TurboTax Prices
Replies: 171
Views: 21167

Re: TurboTax Prices

Hi, I saw quite a few people complaining about difficulty installing the Amazon download for the Deluxe version. Has anyone here downloaded it on a Windows 7 machine running AVG and had difficulty getting it to install? Also, if it won't install, will Intuit customer service offer help or am I stuck...
by Scooter57
Tue Dec 19, 2017 11:56 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ally Bank 11 month [No-Penalty CD]
Replies: 382
Views: 31728

Re: Ally Bank 11 month No Penalty 1.75%

Hi folks, It's been a while since I posted here. But I have been reading all along. I had opened some of these 11 month no-penalty CDs on Dec 7. They told me the 10 days had expired and I had to close them and open new ones. It took me all of about 10 minutes to do this online. Just be sure you move...
by Scooter57
Sat Mar 01, 2014 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks that Don't Pay Dividends - Greater Fool Driven?
Replies: 73
Views: 6329

Re: Stocks that Don't Pay Dividends - Greater Fool Driven?

Jack, Bravo! Your post pulls together disparate points I'd seen made in boooks like Financial Shenanigans and elsewhere. The issue of how stock options, buy backs, and EPS manipulation reward executives at the expense of shareholders is one I have become much more concerned about, too. Especially si...
by Scooter57
Fri Feb 28, 2014 2:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: huge discrepency in retirement spending models
Replies: 10
Views: 1203

Re: huge discrepency in retirement spending models

My parents spent more money in their last decade than they had ever spent before due to both needing full time care. Both were extremely healthy all their lives so their bodies were robust. But in their 80s for one and 90s for the other their judgement, memory, and in one case eye sight failed. Ten ...
by Scooter57
Fri Feb 28, 2014 2:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar and the Scam of Forward-Looking Earnings
Replies: 11
Views: 1390

Re: Morningstar and the Scam of Forward-Looking Earnings

Many US companies do issue estimates of their next year and next quarter earnings. Some issue updates when conditions change. Analyst estimates use those numbers and others they seem to pull out of thin air. Typically they start out too optimistic and drop as the earnings report date approaches. How...
by Scooter57
Thu Feb 27, 2014 6:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks that Don't Pay Dividends - Greater Fool Driven?
Replies: 73
Views: 6329

Re: Stocks that Don't Pay Dividends - Greater Fool Driven?

Steadyeddy,

When Vanguard funds own that stock, they just vote the board recommendations. And for many larger stocks almost all the shares are owned by funds that do the same. You are dreaming if you think mutual fund holders have any way to counteract stupid or venal management decisions.
by Scooter57
Thu Feb 27, 2014 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks that Don't Pay Dividends - Greater Fool Driven?
Replies: 73
Views: 6329

Re: Stocks that Don't Pay Dividends - Greater Fool Driven?

If Joe sells his bakery, then the buyer will have to buy my share. But Joe might just do what most bakeries do, which is close with no prior warning, give up the lease and sell off the equipment for a lot less than they paid for it. (This has happened to every local bakery I have fallen in love with...
by Scooter57
Thu Feb 27, 2014 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks that Don't Pay Dividends - Greater Fool Driven?
Replies: 73
Views: 6329

Re: Stocks that Don't Pay Dividends - Greater Fool Driven?

The house analogy falls apart, because the value of a house is that someone can live in it. If they can't, for example, if it turns out to be built on a toxic waste dump or because the nuclear plant 9 miles away just melted down, it's value disappears. The utility of the house is what gives it it's ...
by Scooter57
Thu Feb 27, 2014 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks that Don't Pay Dividends - Greater Fool Driven?
Replies: 73
Views: 6329

Stocks that Don't Pay Dividends - Greater Fool Driven?

Perhaps this is a really dumb question, but the more I study investing, the more I am starting to wonder about the underlying assumptions about what gives value to a share of stock. In theory, we are buying a share of a company when we buy the stock. Now if I buy a share of Joe's Bakery down the roa...
by Scooter57
Wed Feb 26, 2014 5:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Be careful with Turbotax [Importing data from Vanguard]
Replies: 20
Views: 3767

Re: Be careful with Turbotax [Importing data from Vanguard]

I did the download from Vanguard and VBS and checked every entry against my paper statements. No duplications. The only issues were some bonds I had sold where VG did not report the basis or acquisition date. I had to hunt around to find out where to put that data in, then I had to manually change t...
by Scooter57
Tue Feb 25, 2014 3:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Question for Dr. Bernstein
Replies: 55
Views: 6771

Re: Bond Question for Dr. Bernstein

Calm man, Twenty 1099-divs work out to $5 million worth of CDs for a single person with no family with which to do POD accounts. With a joint account you could cover $10 million. This is way more than most of us will ever be putting into fixed income. You could put together a reasonable CD ladder to...
by Scooter57
Sun Feb 23, 2014 8:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Question for Dr. Bernstein
Replies: 55
Views: 6771

Re: Bond Question for Dr. Bernstein

PJW, I am well aware of everything you explained, but it doesn't address the question of why anyone should invest in a bond fund when they can get better yield with less risk in CDs. Right now the yield on 3, 4, and 5 yr CDs even with full penalties for early withdrawal can be much better than any s...
by Scooter57
Sun Feb 23, 2014 8:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has anyone seen the Japanese Stock Market?
Replies: 73
Views: 9503

Re: Has anyone seen the Japanese Stock Market?

My understanding is that the Japanese people who would correspond to the investing class in the US, people who retired during the 25+ years after the Japanese collapse, had much, much better pensions than Americans retiring now will see due to the paternalistic way their corporations behaved. That m...
by Scooter57
Sun Feb 23, 2014 7:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Value averaging
Replies: 5
Views: 623

Re: Value averaging

I don't value average my fixed income with a path, just my equity investment. I use two paths, one for US equity and one for International. The end of the path for international is a value that would make it 25% of my total equity investment, with US equity set so that it would be 75% of that alloca...
by Scooter57
Sun Feb 23, 2014 5:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Question for Dr. Bernstein
Replies: 55
Views: 6771

Re: Bond Question for Dr. Bernstein

Biffer, I haven't read that book, though I have seen the Lazy Portfolio derived from it which is the 3 fund portfolio. Glad to hear that it does discuss CDs. For decades I have wondered if something was wrong with me because I have always invested in them and they have always helped me sleep very we...
by Scooter57
Sun Feb 23, 2014 4:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Question for Dr. Bernstein
Replies: 55
Views: 6771

Re: Bond Question for Dr. Bernstein

Dr. B, When we can buy 3-5 year credit union CDs paying over 2% that can be broken with penalties of only 6 months interest why on earth should we bother with short term bond funds paying .75% or limited term tax exempt funds paying .71%? This simply makes no sense to me. It seems to me that the tim...
by Scooter57
Sun Feb 23, 2014 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard brokerage tax forms are now out
Replies: 24
Views: 3170

Re: Vanguard brokerage tax forms are now out

So is it safe to do our taxes now based on the brokerage statements or can we expect more problems to show up?
by Scooter57
Sun Feb 23, 2014 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Am I buying "high" on index investing?
Replies: 27
Views: 4566

Re: Am I buying "high" on index investing?

I agree that the public tone on these forums is exemplary! Re the Three Fund portfolio, it's important to be aware, if a person does go that way, that they are investing heavily in the largest, most fully mature companies in the two stock indexes. This might be exactly what they want to do, but if t...
by Scooter57
Sun Feb 23, 2014 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Am I buying "high" on index investing?
Replies: 27
Views: 4566

Re: Am I buying "high" on index investing?

Phineas, You are very quick to take my post personally. You are not alone, as I received hate mail via PM, too, in response to my post. Perhaps you and the other haters are assuming that only some of the anonymous posters giving advice on this board are official Bogleheads--yourself, for example) an...
by Scooter57
Sun Feb 23, 2014 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Investors Jump Back Into the Trading Game
Replies: 30
Views: 2987

Re: Small Investors Jump Back Into the Trading Game

The rise in margin debt suggests a lot of these traders are shorting stocks and SPY.

That's probably good news for people fearing the market is about to tank.
by Scooter57
Sat Feb 22, 2014 8:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Am I buying "high" on index investing?
Replies: 27
Views: 4566

Re: Am I buying "high" on index investing?

The "what if everyone indexed" question occured to me when I started to study investing last winter not because of reading some Finance journalist porn--which I wasn't reading, but because I have an active analytic mind that likes to think through all dogmas presented as final truth. I poisted a mes...