Search found 31 matches

by matt.danley
Wed Jul 02, 2014 10:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 70 and need Portfolio Help First Post
Replies: 6
Views: 865

Re: 70 and need Portfolio Help First Post

Good Evening Shayne, Welcome to the forums! While we are all very happy to assist you with ideas on how to manage your money, please remember that everyone's situation is different, and what is best for me might not be what is best for you. That being said, please let me summarize how I understand y...
by matt.danley
Mon Apr 22, 2013 10:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Americans over-invested in Equities?
Replies: 15
Views: 3789

Re: Are Americans over-invested in Equities?

Good point. I don't see necessarily see "private business" as a sole occupation. The private business could easily be a side job that provides decent income aside from your main job. The ultimate goal of course being having enough "passive" income to provide enough to cover livin...
by matt.danley
Wed Apr 17, 2013 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Americans over-invested in Equities?
Replies: 15
Views: 3789

Re: Are Americans over-invested in Equities?

Thanks for all the replies. One of my extreme interests in investing is asset allocation, so I found the disparities between the individuals in different countries pretty profound. The disposable income idea seems plausible, but my thinking is that disposable income per capita would be pretty equal ...
by matt.danley
Mon Apr 15, 2013 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Americans over-invested in Equities?
Replies: 15
Views: 3789

Are Americans over-invested in Equities?

I cam across this article earlier today that caught my eye: m I was wondering what you guys/gals thought about the idea that Americans are nearly twice as invested in securities as our overseas brethren. Also, I wonder if the "insurance" portion of the investments include future social sec...
by matt.danley
Thu Apr 04, 2013 1:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investment Simulation Tools/Data
Replies: 1
Views: 283

Re: Investment Simulation Tools/Data

Hi! I feel the same way concerning TBM-type funds. Personally, I split my bond allocations out. I don't mind the extra overhead, but the Boglehead mantra is simplicity, simplicity, simplicity. I personally use IEF as my core bond holding (my wife has corporate bond exposure via VWINX), so I would vo...
by matt.danley
Thu Apr 04, 2013 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can this 24-ETF portfolio be simplified?
Replies: 30
Views: 3354

Re: Can this 24-ETF portfolio be simplified?

DBC PowerShares Commodity 4% IAU iShares Gold Trust 4% GLD Gold 1% In my personal opinion, you could reduce your holdings to eight (or fewer) ETFs based on the broader asset classes. For Equities: You could actually just use VT or VTI/VXUS, but slice-and-dicers usually prefer to separate out US/Int...
by matt.danley
Sat Jan 26, 2013 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wimpy Market Timing
Replies: 82
Views: 5966

Re: Wimpy Market Timing

Hey xram, Personally, I am glad you are wanting to spend some additionally time with your investments. In my experience, market timing does little to add RETURNS, but does provide protection against extreme DRAWDOWNS. This is well worth the 30 minutes per month I spend with my spreadsheets/charts to...
by matt.danley
Sun Jan 20, 2013 6:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pimco Commodity Strategy - PCRIX, Is it Equities or Bonds
Replies: 16
Views: 1874

Re: Pimco Commodity Strategy - PCRIX, Is it Equities or Bond

Has anyone looked at the actual [latest] holdings of this fund? There are a lot of TIPs, but there are also mortgage bonds, credit default swaps, international bonds, etc. This is almost like a Total Return Bond/Derivative Fund with Commodity exposure overlaid. Edit: It's decidedly a small percentag...
by matt.danley
Sun Jan 20, 2013 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Movement from bonds
Replies: 32
Views: 2613

Re: Movement from bonds

Then what? When do you get back in? It sounds like a good way to get out of the market for life if things never take a turn back to your comfort zone for buying. If you win at a casino and never go back to another casino, that is great. But do you never invest again? [Rude comment removed by admin ...
by matt.danley
Sun Jan 20, 2013 10:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Movement from bonds
Replies: 32
Views: 2613

Re: Movement from bonds

Just to add a different perspective, you could also devise a system that you add to your Investment Policy Statement that would act as a "stop" (sell price) should the value of your bond holdings hit a certain price level. Just make sure you follow your "plan" with military preci...
by matt.danley
Sat Jan 19, 2013 10:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: "Forever" Vanguard Index Fund Portfolio Allocation Strategy
Replies: 26
Views: 5635

Re: "Forever" Vanguard Index Fund Portfolio Allocation Strat

That said, what do you think of this idea? It would be a 50% stock and 50% bond allocation with a slightly higher allocation to foreign stock index holdings: VBMFX 20% VWEHX 15% VBIIX 15% VTSMX 18% VEURX 4% (I want a slight overweight in Europe as they come out of the PIIGS crisis which should bump...
by matt.danley
Thu Jan 17, 2013 9:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Feedback on this Asset Allocation Strategy
Replies: 2
Views: 400

Re: Feedback on this Asset Allocation Strategy

1. My Recs: 1a. Bonds: I would up the allocation to at least 30% personally. Also, I would drop EMB and go with a corporate bond fund instead. The debt is USD denominated so you don't really gain any currency risk here. Your portfolio needs credit risk, so add something like LQD or the Vanguard equi...
by matt.danley
Tue Jan 15, 2013 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Information you should have before buying gold
Replies: 99
Views: 8402

Re: Information you should have before buying gold

Bill Off the top of my head, here are the top five I'm currently having to address A) we need to invest in fast growing economies like China b) we need to buy gold c) we need to stay short with bonds d) we need to avoid Europe e) structured notes with downside protection Best wishes Larry So basica...
by matt.danley
Mon Jan 14, 2013 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What are people's thoughts on commodity funds?
Replies: 52
Views: 4000

Re: What are people's thoughts on commodity funds?

Ultimately, the argument against a broad basket commodities index ETF is the fact that roll yield is variable. GSCI is largely a spot-based index, but the only way to invest in it is through futures contracts which may have positive, negative, or zero roll yield that substantially changes the return...
by matt.danley
Mon Jan 14, 2013 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What are people's thoughts on commodity funds?
Replies: 52
Views: 4000

Re: What are people's thoughts on commodity funds?

Browser wrote:If you could select one commodity to buy and hold for the next 20 years, which one would it be?


Water? :) Or Carbon Credits depending how long people stay upset over "climate change".
by matt.danley
Mon Jan 14, 2013 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What are people's thoughts on commodity funds?
Replies: 52
Views: 4000

Re: What are people's thoughts on commodity funds?

... neither of these are passive, index oriented investments in the bogleheads style and actually investing in them successfully requires some modicum of acumen. The only index I have found of any worth was developed by Rho Asset Management. m This is not a bogleheads style index, but a very useful...
by matt.danley
Mon Jan 14, 2013 12:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What are people's thoughts on commodity funds?
Replies: 52
Views: 4000

Re: What are people's thoughts on commodity funds?

It seems that in trades that there are winners and losers. You would have to consistently win. It is not about winning percentage. The only thing that matters is how much you make when you are right and how much you lose when you are wrong. Being very profitable with 30-40% win rates is within the ...
by matt.danley
Sun Jan 13, 2013 10:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What are people's thoughts on commodity funds?
Replies: 52
Views: 4000

Re: What are people's thoughts on commodity funds?

Anyone wanting optimum exposure to commodity prices should invest directly in the futures contracts. There have been a myriad of traders that has amassed fortunes by utilizing the same momentum characteristics you so eloquently described (read: trend following). Look up the past performance of AHL, ...
by matt.danley
Sun Jan 13, 2013 9:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Overhaul Review
Replies: 9
Views: 1550

Re: Portfolio Overhaul Review

Commodities deserve a place in most investors' portfolios due to their strong positive correlation to unexpected inflation. Most futures-based commodity ETFs (DBA, DBC, DJP, etc) have a nice negative correlation to TLT which gives you a way to diversify interest rate risks more directly as well. Add...
by matt.danley
Sun Jan 13, 2013 12:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any reason to buy TIPS?
Replies: 44
Views: 4863

Re: Any reason to buy TIPS?

Why not just purchase I bonds if you're looking at TIPs? At least there you [theoretically] won't lose purchasing power. As long as you trust the CPI numbers. Of course, this is impossible to do in tax-advantaged accounts.
by matt.danley
Sun Jan 13, 2013 12:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Vanguard Wellington
Replies: 23
Views: 9348

Re: Vanguard Wellington

How about VWELX, then VEIEX for more equity risk and VFITX for more interest rate risk?
by matt.danley
Sat Jan 12, 2013 11:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Overhaul Review
Replies: 9
Views: 1550

Re: Portfolio Overhaul Review

Gorgeous spreadsheets! I am an Excel nerd myself. The one thing that really got me away from my endless slicing-and-dicing ways was putting all of my [old] ETFs on a chart and looking at what they did during 1999-2001 and 2007-2009. We slice-and-dice for performance and diversification, but in extre...
by matt.danley
Sat Jan 12, 2013 5:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio help for 23 year old
Replies: 42
Views: 4390

Re: Portfolio help for 23 year old

Hey AllySK, My personal stance is that I do not invest in fund-of-fund type investments. Not only do you directly pay the ER on your fund, but you are also losing the ERs of all the funds that your fund holds. I think it is much more efficient to spend the extra 30 minutes per year managing your own...
by matt.danley
Wed Jan 09, 2013 10:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: More research = more confusion
Replies: 31
Views: 2714

Re: More research = more confusion

What is your risk appetite like? 60/30/10 allocation is essentially 70/30 in periods of downturns. Can you hold through a ~30-35% drop in your retirement portfolio if the market drops ~50% again? The reason why most investors don't perform as well as "buy and hold" is because they are inca...
by matt.danley
Wed Jan 09, 2013 9:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Request for Portfolio help and Bond guidance
Replies: 23
Views: 1750

Re: Request for Portfolio help and Bond guidance

The fixed income fund portfolio supposedly tracks the performance of the Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index. It is a new fund in our 401k that has done 4% since April. The average bond duration is 6.6years. The Real return Portfolio has done 6.6% and The Portfolio has risk characteristics compar...
by matt.danley
Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: admiral shares
Replies: 3
Views: 660

Re: admiral shares

The Schwab ETFs (and mutual funds too by the looks of it) are just as cheap as Vanguard's. Why not just set up your 3-4 Index portfolio with their funds?
by matt.danley
Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Young Investor - Probably need help [Portfolio]
Replies: 15
Views: 1255

Re: Young Investor - Probably need help [Portfolio]

I'd ask yourself how many years you are comfortable waiting to get to a target allocation and writing out various options so you can see them on paper. For example, if you sell 50% right away, you live with a year in which 2 stocks are 39% of your portfolio, and it takes you 1 year to get to your d...
by matt.danley
Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Young Investor - Probably need help [Portfolio]
Replies: 15
Views: 1255

Re: Young Investor - Probably need help [Portfolio]

As for those 4 stocks you bought- you say they were undervalued when you bought them: Are they still undervalued now that they have risen 100%? Would you still buy them today? You bring up a good point. I was kind of hoping to hold these stocks for at least a year in order to avoid short term gains...
by matt.danley
Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Request for Portfolio help and Bond guidance
Replies: 23
Views: 1750

Re: Request for Portfolio help and Bond guidance

DBR - is your inference that we should learn about bonds but not from bond experts ? Who else can we learn from ? Just as we learn from Bogle, Swedroe, Bernstein and Ferri, we learn about bonds by reading articles and books written experts like Annette Thau. Is Thau a "supposed expert" ? ...
by matt.danley
Wed Jan 09, 2013 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Young Investor - Probably need help [Portfolio]
Replies: 15
Views: 1255

Re: Young Investor - Probably need help [Portfolio]

Do you need the money? If not, then there is no hurry to sell. No one knows where the stock market will be tomorrow, next Tuesday, or a year from now. Use this forum for the spirit, but you have to understand your own psychology when it comes to managing your own money. If you like XOM and IBM and y...
by matt.danley
Wed Jan 09, 2013 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Request for Portfolio help and Bond guidance
Replies: 23
Views: 1750

Re: Request for Portfolio help and Bond guidance

This would be the easiest: m Let me know if the link doesn't work. At this point if you career, I would be most worried about drawdowns. Can you withstand a 15% loss of your portfolio if we see another 50% stock market drop in the next 10 years? I'm not trying to scare you out of holding equity, sin...