Search found 534 matches

by michaelsieg
Mon Mar 19, 2018 10:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Single Greatest Predictor of Future Stock Market Returns
Replies: 40
Views: 10047

Re: The Single Greatest Predictor of Future Stock Market Returns

Interesting concept, thanks for reviving this thread. I had not heard about this metric before. Unfortunately the link to the original article does not seem work anymore, it would be interesting to read it.
by michaelsieg
Fri Mar 16, 2018 9:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Need Advice Rental Property -- Rent not covering PITI
Replies: 18
Views: 1640

Re: Need Advice Rental Property -- Rent not covering PITI

It really depends on what your mid- and long-term plans are. If you move back to the area within 2-3 years, the decision would be different than if you are sure you are never going to live there anymore, in which case I would sell. We had a similar situation, when our family moved in the middle of t...
by michaelsieg
Sun Feb 25, 2018 11:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Blasphemy... DO PEEK!
Replies: 100
Views: 9374

Re: Blasphemy... DO PEEK!

Thanks for posting Siamond - I like the article and the website is also interesting. Another thing that I found interesting in the article was the fact that in the last 30 years 10% corrections occur more than 2.3 times per year on average and 20% corrections about 0.7 times per year. That is more t...
by michaelsieg
Fri Feb 23, 2018 7:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Terminology question: what does "losing money" mean?
Replies: 71
Views: 3098

Re: Terminology question: what does "losing money" mean?

This discussion raises an interesting point about how one should measure one's portfolio return and progress. I use Longinvest's excel spreadsheet and entered the data going back to early 2015, but I have to be honest, I have not adjusted for inflation when looking at the returns. Is anyone deductin...
by michaelsieg
Thu Feb 22, 2018 11:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What seems to matter
Replies: 25
Views: 3722

Re: What seems to matter

Thanks for posting Robert. Really appreciate your input to the forum.
by michaelsieg
Thu Feb 01, 2018 11:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do you see any issues with my investment policy statement?
Replies: 13
Views: 896

Re: Do you see any issues with my investment policy statement?

I like that you are doing an IPS, I wish I had done that at your age.... I think in your age the savings rate is of paramount importance, probably more important than your AA when you start and I would specify how much you want to save and I personally wrote down that I pay myself first with each pa...
by michaelsieg
Mon Jan 15, 2018 10:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Sell or Keep a rental condo
Replies: 36
Views: 2608

Re: Sell or Keep a rental condo

Between my wife and I we make appx $135k gross salaries. The renal income could push into a higher tax bracket over time. I would say a higher tax bracket is a good thing, as it means you earn more :happy - Don't forget, your income will still be taxed at the same rate, the higher rate just applies...
by michaelsieg
Sat Jan 13, 2018 12:32 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Sell or Keep a rental condo
Replies: 36
Views: 2608

Re: Sell or Keep a rental condo

On a 55k investment in 2010, you have been netting about 10.5k income /year for the past 7 years. I would look at this as an investment that creates cashflow, which has no correlation or very little correlation with equity markets. To be honest with you, I can't think of a better investment generati...
by michaelsieg
Wed Jan 10, 2018 9:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is it time for me to "call in rich"?
Replies: 75
Views: 12577

Re: Is it time for me to "call in rich"?

Congratulations BH87! What a great achievement. I am not sure that I can give you any good advice, you know very well that your plan to retire is as solid as it can get. What seems important to me is that you prepare for retirement not only financially, but that you have a plan about what you want t...
by michaelsieg
Sat Jan 06, 2018 9:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: As a German: Should I go 100% US stocks?
Replies: 62
Views: 4939

Re: As a German: Should I go 100% US stocks?

Manuel, Something that is different in Germany compared to the US is that many German companies and employers offer traditional defined benefit pension plans. If you are one of the lucky ones who is enrolled in a pension plan, then that should influence your asset allocation between fixed income and...
by michaelsieg
Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:46 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Water filtration system - worth it?
Replies: 37
Views: 2956

Re: Water filtration system - worth it?

We recently installed a Franke system under the kitchen sink, it also has a hot water heater and separate cold water line (both of them go through the filter), and me and my wife drink much more tea since we have it, as the boiling hot water is really there in an instant. The filter apparently is ex...
by michaelsieg
Fri Nov 24, 2017 11:14 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: best cordless drill??
Replies: 71
Views: 5104

Re: best cordless drill??

I like the Milwaukee, has a good balance in the hand, but is a bit more pricey than the competitors in the large box stores.
by michaelsieg
Fri Nov 10, 2017 10:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wes Gray: Do Trend Folowing Managed Futures Increase Safe Withdrawal Rates?
Replies: 14
Views: 1295

Re: Wes Gray: Do Trend Folowing Managed Futures Increase Safe Withdrawal Rates?

Dave,
Thanks for posting this interesting article.
I just looked up the minimums at VG to buy QMHIX, it is 5M. Which brokerage do you use to buy these AQR funds?
Thanks
Michael
by michaelsieg
Sun Jun 18, 2017 10:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard High-Yield Corporate Fund Investor Shares VWEHX
Replies: 47
Views: 5809

Re: Vanguard High-Yield Corporate Fund Investor Shares VWEHX

This fund seems to always cause a lot of emotional reactions - for or against it. If this funds is suitable for the mother of the poster depends on many other things that we don't know - I know of many elderly retirees who completely shy away from equity risk and as this fund clearly has equity risk...
by michaelsieg
Sun May 28, 2017 11:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DON'T pay off your mortgage; instead reduce Sequence of Return Risk
Replies: 206
Views: 19449

Re: DON'T pay off your mortgage; instead reduce Sequence of Return Risk

In a high tax bracket, even tax-exempt bond yields may be higher than after-tax mortgage rates, which means that investing in tax-exempt bonds is better than paying down a mortgage. I am in this situation and I am not sure if I completely agree. It comes down to the 100s of threads if people should...
by michaelsieg
Sun May 21, 2017 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Value Stocks Have Disappointed"
Replies: 42
Views: 6588

Re: "Why Value Stocks Have Disappointed"

"So, value enthusiasts, rejoice, investing in cheap stocks has not gone the way of John Cleese’s parrot." Thanks for posting Robert, I liked the 2001 quote of Bill Bernstein in the linked article "Of Mines, Farms, Forests, and Impatience": A much more reasonable supposition is that the Nasdaq 100 s...
by michaelsieg
Mon May 08, 2017 10:11 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: HAPPY BIRTHDAY MR. BOGLE: Let's Get The Party Started One Day Early
Replies: 68
Views: 5336

Re: HAPPY BIRTHDAY MR. BOGLE: Let's Get The Party Started One Day Early

Happy Birthday Jack - and thank you for all you have done and all you do!
by michaelsieg
Wed May 03, 2017 10:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Which High-Yield Online Savings Account Should I Open?
Replies: 72
Views: 12147

Re: Which High-Yield Online Savings Account Should I Open?

I have used the Dollarsavingsdirect savings account for a few years and it has worked well, it is all online, FDIC insured and the money is usually transferred the next day if you need it. I have it linked to my checking account with a different bank. No minimums. Have no relationship with them, but...
by michaelsieg
Sat Apr 29, 2017 10:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Which High-Yield Online Savings Account Should I Open?
Replies: 72
Views: 12147

Re: Which High-Yield Online Savings Account Should I Open?

Dollarsavingsdirect has a 1.25% savings account - the rate went up last month
by michaelsieg
Wed Mar 01, 2017 7:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why can't I save enough to have decent vacation or restaurant meal
Replies: 125
Views: 13823

Re: Why can't I save enough to have decent vacation or restaurant meal

HCOL areas usually means higher salary.
That is not always true. For instance in medicine, many specialists in HCOLA urban areas often get paid significantly less than in more rural areas.
by michaelsieg
Tue Feb 14, 2017 10:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Foreign REIT vs. USA REIT?
Replies: 20
Views: 3073

Re: Foreign REIT vs. USA REIT?

I agree with Wolf359 about the asset location. The other issue I see is that your workplace S&P 500 fund has an ER of 0.62 - this raises the ER of your entire portfolio to almost 0.5%. It might be better to get a lower cost market index fund in a different account (assuming this is the cheapest mark...
by michaelsieg
Wed Jan 25, 2017 8:59 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: HAPPY 93RD BIRTHDAY, TAYLOR!
Replies: 199
Views: 12176

Re: HAPPY 93RD BIRTHDAY, TAYLOR!

Happy birthday Taylor!
It was such a pleasure to meet you in person at the last BH conference!
All my best wishes
Michael
by michaelsieg
Sun Dec 11, 2016 9:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: which pickup truck
Replies: 67
Views: 8955

Re: which pickup truck

It's not considered full sized, but I love my 2017 Ridgeline. The new one does look really nice. I have a 2007 Ridgeline truck and really like it, even though it has limits if you need to do heavy duty towing. I have about 110k miles on it and had no issues. I hope it lasts another 5 years, will pr...
by michaelsieg
Thu Nov 24, 2016 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Market Strategy Now
Replies: 24
Views: 5003

Re: Bond Market Strategy Now

Forgot - Happy Thanksgiving to everyone!
by michaelsieg
Thu Nov 24, 2016 1:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Market Strategy Now
Replies: 24
Views: 5003

Re: Bond Market Strategy Now

I think it is important that you stick with your AA that you decided in the past. This is especially important in times of volatility. Your bond allocation and duration (to me) looks reasonable. So if your 10/45/45/ bond allocation is off, I would mechanically rebalance to my desired AA. Your alloca...
by michaelsieg
Sat Nov 12, 2016 11:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why patience and discipline are key to investing, it's temperament not intellect
Replies: 38
Views: 6100

Re: Why patience and discipline are key to investing, it's temperament not intellect

Thanks for posting Larry, The data you present make a strong argument for staying the course. I have a question about the implementation of the portfolios you backtested. You mention to have risk factors in equal parts in your model portfolios (e.g. beta, size value momentum). But when I look at fac...
by michaelsieg
Wed Aug 17, 2016 11:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Medical Billing Question - Hospital Discharge Instructions led to acetaminophen OD
Replies: 69
Views: 6751

Re: Medical Billing Question - Hospital Discharge Instructions led to acetaminophen OD

Putting aside prohibited medical facts, as a personal consumer issue this is not true. EPIC will flash an alert that the dose exceeds a maximum recommended dose, but these are frequently bypassed with a single click. In fact there are so many alerts on so many issues that behaviorally providers bec...
by michaelsieg
Wed Aug 17, 2016 8:55 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Medical Billing Question - Hospital Discharge Instructions led to acetaminophen OD
Replies: 69
Views: 6751

Re: Medical Billing Question - Hospital Discharge Instructions led to acetaminophen OD

I and glad that ultimately all was well. It seems like 2 separate "safety nets" didn't work. I would be surprised if today's EMRs would allow to print out discharge medications, that would lead to an overdose - the big players such as Epic or Centricity essentially don't allow you to write for a too...
by michaelsieg
Wed Aug 17, 2016 8:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Pension and taxes...
Replies: 8
Views: 1324

Re: Pension and taxes...

There are many threads regarding "lump sum payout" versus a traditional pension on this site. Before you decide what to do, I would read some of them and then do the math carefully. Often, taking the pension is the better value, especially with today's low interest rates ( even if the pension has be...
by michaelsieg
Sun Jul 31, 2016 8:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone else create "mirror" accounts?
Replies: 9
Views: 1608

Re: Does anyone else create "mirror" accounts?

I like longinvest's return spreadsheet, that you can find in the wiki or if you use the google search box on the top of the page. It gives you an internal rate of return across all your accounts and a time weighted return and it is easy to use. It would be easy to set up a separate "mirroring" sprea...
by michaelsieg
Mon Jul 25, 2016 8:59 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What bond fund do you recommend (VBTIX, VAIPX, PIMCO Stable Income Fund)
Replies: 6
Views: 965

Re: What bond fund do you recommend (VBTIX, VAIPX, PIMCO Stable Income Fund)

I was trying to find out more information about this fund for you, but I could not find a ticker symbol and the morningstar search box also didn't give any useful results. I think from looking at your link, and looking at the volatility (low), that this is a stable value fund. I would call the retir...
by michaelsieg
Sun Jul 24, 2016 11:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What bond fund do you recommend (VBTIX, VAIPX, PIMCO Stable Income Fund)
Replies: 6
Views: 965

Re: What bond fund do you recommend (VBTIX, VAIPX, PIMCO Stable Income Fund)

Is the PIMCO stable income fund a stable value fund that guarantees a certain APR? If so, most stable value funds give a fixed interest rate return (our plan updates the interest rate every 6 months, I believe) and have less (no?) term risk (i.e. the fund does not go down in value when interest rate...
by michaelsieg
Mon Jun 06, 2016 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What would a Boglehead do? [401(k) contributions vs. paying off loans]
Replies: 42
Views: 3705

Re: What would a Boglehead do?

I recently in a similar situation also went the HELOC path - I would be inclined in shifting the debt to a HELOC and still max out the retirement savings, but obviously there might be individual situations where this might not be reasonable.
by michaelsieg
Mon May 16, 2016 10:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rich But Middle Class
Replies: 233
Views: 27746

Re: Rich But Middle Class

We also like that they will be able to interact, compete against and surround themselves with the best and brightest, which should help them to reach their full potential. We live in a similar extremely HCOL area like you and we were also considering sending our kids to private schools starting wit...
by michaelsieg
Mon May 02, 2016 9:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to do with VGPMX (Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining)?
Replies: 129
Views: 22560

Re: What to do with VGPMX (Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining)?

How high can it go?
Only needs to go up another 100% for me to break even....
by michaelsieg
Fri Apr 22, 2016 8:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: switching from snow tires to the warm season
Replies: 7
Views: 981

Re: switching from snow tires to the warm season

Thank you all for your responses! Do you take the Ridegline off road ever or is it strictly a street truck? I mainly drive on the road, sometimes drive in our backyard, to get things in and out, but rarely - so I don't need an off-road tire. Bloom2708 - thanks so much for your input, I am going to l...
by michaelsieg
Fri Apr 22, 2016 2:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: switching from snow tires to the warm season
Replies: 7
Views: 981

switching from snow tires to the warm season

Last fall, after reading this thread: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=178009, I got the Michelin latitude x-ice snow tires for my Ridgeline truck at Costco, and I have been really happy with them when we had significant snow this winter. Now that we are hopefully done with snow, the...
by michaelsieg
Wed Apr 20, 2016 10:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mortgage advice for second home.
Replies: 18
Views: 1955

Re: Mortgage advice for second home.

I also would try to avoid LTC gains taxes in your situation. The best mortgage rate will be likely for your primary home. In MD you also pay state and county income tax on LTC gains. I live in a high-tax rate county (like you probably too). My LTC gains taxes in MD for an investment last year that h...
by michaelsieg
Sat Apr 16, 2016 2:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Postnuptial agreement for Physician
Replies: 94
Views: 9102

Re: Postnuptial agreement for Physician

I think most things that needed to be said have been said. A postnuptial agreement makes absolutely no sense in your situation - it is very different, if one side brings significant assets into a marriage. No matter how the marriage will turn out, it makes it easy that you both essentially start fro...
by michaelsieg
Wed Apr 13, 2016 9:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 282
Views: 52026

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Greayfox, I liked your way of looking where the "center of gravity" for these markets are. I was surprised that the EM is in the Red See about 100 miles south of Mecca (hope I entered the numbers right) and the average for the developed Markets were north to the Red See in Turkey (surprising to me, ...
by michaelsieg
Sun Apr 10, 2016 2:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Honda Odyssey
Replies: 41
Views: 4784

Re: Honda Odyssey

One of the best purchases we ever made. Get a model with a built-in DVD player, it makes long-distance trips much easier for the kids. We have a 2007 that we bought new and I hope it will last until they are all off for college (another 11 years...may be a bit optimistic :))
by michaelsieg
Sun Apr 10, 2016 1:55 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: My current bicycle tour in Italy
Replies: 39
Views: 5308

Re: My current bicycle tour in Italy

Drive safely, looking forward to see your updates!
Loved your diary from last year
Hope it is not too cold there - good luck with the weather!
Michael
by michaelsieg
Thu Apr 07, 2016 9:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Efficient frontier?
Replies: 21
Views: 3195

Re: Efficient frontier?

I agree that the efficient frontier is not that important for the OP. The key question for him is to have a careful look at his risk tolerance. I think it really matters to look at the maximal drawdown of a portfolio if equity markets have a bear market. There was a good discussion on this topic in ...
by michaelsieg
Thu Apr 07, 2016 8:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which individual countries hold the most promise for future investment gains?
Replies: 86
Views: 7470

Re: Which individual countries hold the most promise for future investment gains?

As to my list of similar to US culture countries it includes Canada, UK, South Africa, HK, S. Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Germany, Netherlands & Scandinavia. At least with these you know the rules will most likely not change in the future. Packer I look at country specific investing similarly as Pa...
by michaelsieg
Tue Apr 05, 2016 9:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 50/ can I cross the finish line?
Replies: 51
Views: 8342

Re: 50/ can I cross the finish line?

I would second what has been said before, pay off the mortgage - I would not refinance in your situation - you probably have significant long-term capital gains, so it might make sense to take some of your bond portion to pay off the mortgage, to avoid taxes. You will be surprised how good if feels ...
by michaelsieg
Fri Apr 01, 2016 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recency, relativism, patience, discipline and tracking error
Replies: 6
Views: 780

Re: Recency, relativism, patience, discipline and tracking error

Thanks for posting Larry, I liked the article, especially the part about the patience that is needed in investing. You write in your article that the balance between domestic and international/EM is almost as important as the equity/bond mix. What balance do you currently recommend for the average i...
by michaelsieg
Wed Mar 30, 2016 9:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: FLTMX vs FSITX for taxable account
Replies: 11
Views: 1229

Re: FLTMX vs FSITX for taxable account

Thanks Grabiner - I really appreciate your posts!
by michaelsieg
Wed Mar 30, 2016 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: FLTMX vs FSITX for taxable account
Replies: 11
Views: 1229

Re: FLTMX vs FSITX for taxable account

Grabiner, Thanks for your thoughtful response. I am in MD like you, have you looked into the MD municipal bond funds? VG does not offer any, but T Rowe Price has an intermediate duration fund (MDXBX)- which fund would you recommend, if you were looking for a MD specific intermediate (good quality) M...