Search found 366 matches

by Streptococcus
Tue May 26, 2020 7:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 90% VTSAX?
Replies: 15
Views: 2030

Re: 90% VTSAX?

Your emergency fund seems too low at $80K, for a high-earner spending $120K/year. I say this because [1] your emergency fund will only last ~8 months, [2] high-earner job searches can take a long time and you need to be realistic about age discrimination. I looked at your taxable portfolio and didn...
by Streptococcus
Mon Apr 20, 2020 5:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Share your experience if you timed the market
Replies: 38
Views: 2299

Re: Share your experience if you timed the market

Did you time the market during this recession? Or shortly before it. How did go? Or how is it going so far? Did you lose big? Win big? Any regret? Please share your experience. Unless it's real-time, never believe anyone on the Internet or your brother-in-law or your next-door neighbor how about ho...
by Streptococcus
Mon Apr 20, 2020 5:42 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Share your experience if you timed the market
Replies: 38
Views: 2299

Re: Share your experience if you timed the market

Did you time the market during this recession? Or shortly before it. How did go? Or how is it going so far? Did you lose big? Win big? Any regret? Please share your experience. Unless it's real-time, never believe anyone on the Internet or your brother-in-law or your next-door neighbor how about ho...
by Streptococcus
Mon Apr 20, 2020 2:54 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Share your experience if you timed the market
Replies: 38
Views: 2299

Share your experience if you timed the market

Did you time the market during this recession? Or shortly before it. How did go? Or how is it going so far?
Did you lose big? Win big? Any regret?

Please share your experience.
by Streptococcus
Thu Apr 16, 2020 12:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: To Risk or not to Risk
Replies: 13
Views: 439

Re: To Risk or not to Risk

No!
I side with husband
Stock market investment should have long term view >5-10 years
As far as I’m concerned, over the next few months, the economy could very possibly fall into a depression with the market dropping 30-50% for several years
by Streptococcus
Fri Apr 10, 2020 3:40 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: who’s rebalancing into Fixed income?
Replies: 6
Views: 489

Re: who’s rebalancing into Fixed income?

First time recession and there is a lot of learning going on for me: Lesson1: I confirmed that having a relatively large portfolio, I do not need a separate E-fund to sleep well at night as I can just sell my bonds and use them as E-fund. Having 5 years of living expenses in Bonds help relieve anxi...
by Streptococcus
Fri Apr 10, 2020 3:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: who’s rebalancing into Fixed income?
Replies: 6
Views: 489

Re: who’s rebalancing into Fixed income?

First time recession and there is a lot of learning going on for me: Lesson1: I confirmed that having a relatively large portfolio, I do not need a separate E-fund to sleep well at night as I can just sell my bonds and use them as E-fund. Having 5 years of living expenses in Bonds help relieve anxi...
by Streptococcus
Fri Apr 10, 2020 2:59 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: who’s rebalancing into Fixed income?
Replies: 6
Views: 489

who’s rebalancing into Fixed income?

First time recession and there is a lot of learning going on for me: Lesson1: I confirmed that having a relatively large portfolio, I do not need a separate E-fund to sleep well at night as I can just sell my bonds and use them as E-fund. Having 5 years of living expenses in Bonds help relieve anxie...
by Streptococcus
Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 63106

We hit bottom days ago...

For those who are sitting out thinking that “this time is different” or we are in for another 30% decline or don’t buy the dip, etc. Are you sure? A few days ago I made the case that the market will be down 60% from its high. Today I make the case that we hit bottom a few days ago. And if you’re out...
by Streptococcus
Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I refinance or stay put
Replies: 4
Views: 544

Re: Should I refinance or stay put

Do you still expect to move? If yes, don't refi. This assumes you have appropriate EF; for rental, too. If the move was something your family wanted I can't fathom Corona-scare changing my mind and I'd let the market dictate the sales. I would likely aggressively price the primary home and if the r...
by Streptococcus
Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I refinance or stay put
Replies: 4
Views: 544

Re: Should I refinance or stay put

Do you have poor credit? 4.5% is a high rate for a refinance on a primary home, even for a cash-out. It might be better to keep your existing mortgage (or refinance it to a 15-year without a cash-out if you can get a lower rate), and take out a HELOC against the rest of your home equity. The advant...
by Streptococcus
Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I refinance or stay put
Replies: 4
Views: 544

Should I refinance or stay put

My family was planning on moving across the US (for a new job) when the whole COVID-19 crisis started. And before our move, we planned on selling one of our rentals and our primary home but now with the crisis, there is a chance we won't be able to sell for a while and I'm trying to make contingency...
by Streptococcus
Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thread: It’s your First recession (or not) and you’re staying the course
Replies: 65
Views: 3666

Re: Thread: It’s your First recession (or not) and you’re staying the course

* Retired. Long-time investor, been through Tech Crash, Great Recession, etc. All the downturns have made me a lot of money. I never expected to have as much as we do. OP----You will do just fine because, based on your opening post, you understand what even so many on this board miss: Successful In...
by Streptococcus
Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thread: It’s your First recession (or not) and you’re staying the course
Replies: 65
Views: 3666

Re: Thread: It’s your First recession (or not) and you’re staying the course

It's my second recession. And now I have no choice but to stay the course, because I got out the first week of March, then incorrectly called the bottom the following week and got back in, only to find I had run head on into my employer's plan's frequent trading policy. So then I had this wonderful...
by Streptococcus
Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thread: It’s your First recession (or not) and you’re staying the course
Replies: 65
Views: 3666

Re: Thread: It’s your First recession (or not) and you’re staying the course

I’ve been investing since the 90s I invested during the tech crash, credit crisis and virus crisis Downturns will always cause me to lose increasing amounts because my net worth increases so much from one bear to the next If you don’t lose increasing amounts your net worth isn’t growing To lose hun...
by Streptococcus
Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:01 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thread: It’s your First recession (or not) and you’re staying the course
Replies: 65
Views: 3666

Thread: It’s your First recession (or not) and you’re staying the course

This is my first recession and I have already lost over... well I’m not counting. Probably a lot more than 200K I started investing at the beginning of the last bull and while I was reading the books by Ferri, Swedroe, Bogle, etc. I always had a feeling that I have what it takes to stomach the wrenc...
by Streptococcus
Sun Mar 22, 2020 2:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I feel no fear and no pain. Is now the time to reallocate more toward equity?
Replies: 43
Views: 2541

Re: I feel no fear and no pain. Is now the time to reallocate more toward equity?

There are many rebalancing studies that come to the conclusion that rebalancing more frequently doesn't increase portfolio performance. But performance is not necessarily a reason to rebalance. Many say maintaining desired risk level is a reason to rebalancing. So you can look and check the asset a...
by Streptococcus
Tue Mar 17, 2020 1:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: TLH all funds - Lack of options
Replies: 5
Views: 260

Re: TLH all funds - Lack of options

stan1 wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 12:25 pm
Use ETFs if you want more choices and no frequent trading restrictions.

Domestic:
VTI, SCHB, ITOT, VOO, SPY, IVV, etc. (many)

International:
VXUS, IXUS, VEU, and VEA/VWO
Can I sell VTIAX, VFWAX and VTSAX and replaced them with VTI and VXUS the same day?
by Streptococcus
Tue Mar 17, 2020 12:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: TLH all funds - Lack of options
Replies: 5
Views: 260

TLH all funds - Lack of options

So yesterday, as I was TLH, I sold most of my funds. I have a 3 fund portfolio. I sold VTIAX and VFWAX which are my 2 international funds, and VTSAX, my domestic fund. I did no sell VLCAX, my other domestic fund but plan on selling the losing shares of it today. I tax lost harvest using the specific...
by Streptococcus
Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:37 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Poll - Coronavirus - How much cash do you keep home?
Replies: 21
Views: 1120

Poll - Coronavirus - How much cash do you keep home?

How much cash do you keep home during this crisis that could end in 2 months or be the gateway for the next great depression? A. No cash at home; e-fund is your portfolio which has no cash B. No cash at home but Yes cash in your bank accounts C. Less than $1000 at home D. $1000-$3000 at home E. $300...
by Streptococcus
Mon Mar 16, 2020 4:59 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Need advice on my situation
Replies: 19
Views: 1278

Re: Need advice on my situation

I would not sell anything. If I’m in your shoes and I have heighten anxiety about the unpredictable future, I try to cut my expenses further. To the minimum. Get rid of all unnecessary expenses. Cut your bills for the next few months. You may find out that your current 4-5 month E-fund becomes 7-8 m...
by Streptococcus
Mon Mar 16, 2020 4:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll - How much of a crash are you predicting?
Replies: 82
Views: 5356

Re: Poll - How much of a crash are you predicting?

Teriyaki wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 4:44 pm
If you're so sure that the market is going to fall at least 40 %, I sure hope you're currently shorting.
If someone tells you he/she is sure about what’s going to happen, he/she should be tested :D
by Streptococcus
Mon Mar 16, 2020 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll - How much of a crash are you predicting?
Replies: 82
Views: 5356

Poll - How much of a crash are you predicting?

How much do you anticipate the stock market will drop from the beginning of the year when it’s all said and done?
Feel free to be optimistic. We all need it. :D

A. 40%
B. 50%
C. 55%
D. 60%
E. Over 60%

My hunch is 60% :shock: :shock: and I predict an ocean of capitulation threads.
by Streptococcus
Mon Mar 16, 2020 10:37 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 5/25 and Annual Rebalancing -> Recommendation
Replies: 15
Views: 680

Re: 5/25 and Annual Rebalancing -> Recommendation

The further complication here is I may lose my job in June if the economic environment does not improve. I would ensure a reasonable amount of cash/ low volatility investments are present to ensure basic needs are met and then, and only then, consider rebalancing into stocks. furwut, 1) I have 1 1/...
by Streptococcus
Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:56 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Purchase order timing
Replies: 3
Views: 176

Re: Purchase order timing

What would It be if I purchase at 7pm tonight when I know today’s closing performace? If these are mutual funds, the exchange would be priced at the price at close of business Tuesday. If you really want to do intra-day re-balancing/TLH you should convert to ETFs. Thank you. I’m not trying to do in...
by Streptococcus
Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:46 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Purchase order timing
Replies: 3
Views: 176

Purchase order timing

Say right now, 10am, I see that my VTSAX funds is down 10% and It is time to rebalance. the market might still swing wildly before closing. I want to rebalance now because i wont be able to do it tonight. Lets also say it will close today at minus 11%, then tomorrow it will close at + 9% and the nex...
by Streptococcus
Sat Mar 14, 2020 4:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing into stocks when they fall is unrealistic
Replies: 126
Views: 10575

Re: Rebalancing into stocks when they fall is unrealistic

The common advice to decide on a stock/bond allocation and to rebalance to it periodically is unrealistic. In this market you would be selling bonds to buy stocks. VIX is 75, about 5 times its usual level. So after stocks have fallen drastically, and you have become substantially poorer, you should...
by Streptococcus
Fri Mar 13, 2020 3:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I really hope...
Replies: 16
Views: 1167

Re: I really hope...

Triple digit golfer wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 3:07 pm
I rebalanced yesterday. :beer

I won't brag and say I bought, because that is misleading.
If you rebalanced yesterday, does that actually become actual before opening today? I'm not sure.
by Streptococcus
Fri Mar 13, 2020 3:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I really hope...
Replies: 16
Views: 1167

Re: I really hope...

whereskyle wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 3:00 pm
... that no one sold yesterday.

Stay the course.

:sharebeer
:D :)
We really should not try to time the market. This is so crazy :D
by Streptococcus
Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: IPS says to go 100% in Downturn
Replies: 38
Views: 3441

Re: IPS says to go 100% in Downturn

I invest over 100k a year. If I go 100% stocks after a 40% dip and it dives another 50% I’ll put 100K in stocks that year. And the next year. And the next... Streptococcus, So what? The 60/40 will still beat 100/0 when your portfolio is big enough at 1 million or 2 million. In fact, with 60/40, you...
by Streptococcus
Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: IPS says to go 100% in Downturn
Replies: 38
Views: 3441

Re: IPS says to go 100% in Downturn

OP, Why do you think that you would make more money by this type of market timing move versus a fixed AA of 60/40 or 70/30 with 5/25 band based rebalancing? KlangFool Great question - I own a simple lazy portfolio I believe that a 20-40% dip would make international stocks (VTIAX) greatly undervalu...
by Streptococcus
Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:01 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: IPS says to go 100% in Downturn
Replies: 38
Views: 3441

Re: IPS says to go 100% in Downturn

I have a similar clause in my IPS, but the criteria are forward-looking-valuation-based instead of recent-history-based. Here is what it says: - Hold 70/30 when Damodaran's 12-month adjusted ERP is between 4% and 6% - When ERP has been outside of this band for more than 3 months, adjust AA as follo...
by Streptococcus
Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: IPS says to go 100% in Downturn
Replies: 38
Views: 3441

Re: IPS says to go 100% in Downturn

KlangFool wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:18 pm
OP,

Compare your system versus a fixed AA of 60/40 with 5/25 band based rebalancing.

What happened if you have a sequence of 2 x 40% drops? The 60/40 will win.

KlangFool
I appreciate your comment KlangFool :beer
by Streptococcus
Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: IPS says to go 100% in Downturn
Replies: 38
Views: 3441

Re: IPS says to go 100% in Downturn

OP, Why do you think that you would make more money by this type of market timing move versus a fixed AA of 60/40 or 70/30 with 5/25 band based rebalancing? KlangFool Great question - I own a simple lazy portfolio I believe that a 20-40% dip would make international stocks (VTIAX) greatly undervalu...
by Streptococcus
Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: IPS says to go 100% in Downturn
Replies: 38
Views: 3441

Re: IPS says to go 100% in Downturn

Nate79 wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:03 pm
It's easy to write these plans when the market was going up. I fail to understand why you are asking. It's either your plan or not. But it seems you have already failed in your plan since you had to ask.
I’m really comfortable with my plan. And with asking. And executing. Thank you :beer
by Streptococcus
Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: IPS says to go 100% in Downturn
Replies: 38
Views: 3441

Re: IPS says to go 100% in Downturn

I think that if you have a long investment horizon and stable employment then it is a good way to ultimately own more shares. This is my first bear market with any real skin in the game. It is surreal to watch my portfolio lose a sizable chunk of its value, but I believe that it is the best long-te...
by Streptococcus
Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:40 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: About to give up on International
Replies: 11
Views: 788

Re: About to give up on International

I will the international stocks you’re selling
by Streptococcus
Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: About to give up on International
Replies: 11
Views: 788

Re: About to give up on International

I will the international stocks you’re selling
by Streptococcus
Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: IPS says to go 100% in Downturn
Replies: 38
Views: 3441

Re: IPS says to go 100% in Downturn

I think it's a good plan, since it's something you've thought out beforehand. Anything can happen in equity markets, so you'd have to be sure you are comfortable without the ballast of bonds. I am in a similar position to you - first real bear market - and it is disconcerting to see money literally...
by Streptococcus
Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: IPS says to go 100% in Downturn
Replies: 38
Views: 3441

Re: IPS says to go 100% in Downturn

Can you share your reasons why these IPS allocation increase would not be sound? It's bold, but I don't see it as "unsound" unless you find it intolerable. How much experience did you have with market downturns when you wrote this IPS? Were you invested in 2007 when things went south? It is now tim...
by Streptococcus
Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:38 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: IPS says to go 100% in Downturn
Replies: 38
Views: 3441

Re: IPS says to go 100% in Downturn

So your IPS says to time the market. I guess if that's what you're going to do you should probably have something in your IPS related to closeness to retirement when you do it. My IPS does say to time the market as described above in a downturn if I’m still 50% or less of my number. There also inst...
by Streptococcus
Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: IPS says to go 100% in Downturn
Replies: 38
Views: 3441

IPS says to go 100% in Downturn

Hello bogleheads, I recently reread my IPS as I remembered there was a mention on what to do during the next bear market. It says to rebalance AND increase my AA from 70/30 to 80/20 when the SP drops by 20% AND then stay put Then to go 100% stocks if it drops by 40%. It does not matter if it continu...
by Streptococcus
Sun Feb 09, 2020 12:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Advice about a Sabbatical
Replies: 3
Views: 543

Advice about a Sabbatical

Hello Bogleheads, A few months ago, I decided to change job. So I recently quit my job. I have a new job offer available in another State, commencement date is right after the summer. But in reality, a part of me really wants to be bold and take this chance to realize a project of mine: taking a sab...
by Streptococcus
Fri Feb 07, 2020 11:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to save BIG in a HCOLA
Replies: 64
Views: 5146

Re: How to save BIG in a HCOLA

The commute/traffic will be worse in reality than what people tell you. Renovating is extremely expensive - I haven’t priced it, but I’d guess building is too. Personally, I think it’s unrealistic to cut your income and move to a more expensive area while expecting to save at the same rate. As othe...
by Streptococcus
Wed Jan 29, 2020 3:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to save BIG in a HCOLA
Replies: 64
Views: 5146

Re: How to save BIG in a HCOLA

Is renting long term a viable (efficient) financial option in NoVa? We plan on buying a home only if it makes sense financially. If renting makes more sense we will just be renting. We have a “gypsy” lifestyle and plan on moving to “the beach” :beer in 6 years when all the kids are in college. You ...
by Streptococcus
Wed Jan 29, 2020 2:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to save BIG in a HCOLA
Replies: 64
Views: 5146

Re: How to save BIG in a HCOLA

Is renting long term a viable (efficient) financial option in NoVa? We plan on buying a home only if it makes sense financially. If renting makes more sense we will just be renting. We have a “gypsy” lifestyle and plan on moving to “the beach” :beer in 6 years when all the kids are in college. You ...
by Streptococcus
Wed Jan 29, 2020 2:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to save BIG in a HCOLA
Replies: 64
Views: 5146

Re: How to save BIG in a HCOLA

Is renting long term a viable (efficient) financial option in NoVa? We plan on buying a home only if it makes sense financially. If renting makes more sense we will just be renting. We have a “gypsy” lifestyle and plan on moving to “the beach” :beer in 6 years when all the kids are in college. Stre...
by Streptococcus
Wed Jan 29, 2020 2:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to save BIG in a HCOLA
Replies: 64
Views: 5146

Re: How to save BIG in a HCOLA

...Living xpenses without housing becomes 89K. We have no car payment so it’ll be less. I cant see us spend 89K a year without housing but what do I know about NoVa? :confused I'm confused too because those numbers don't add for me. 240 - 46 (taxes) - 80 (savings) - 36 (housing) = 78, not 89. Our n...
by Streptococcus
Wed Jan 29, 2020 2:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to save BIG in a HCOLA
Replies: 64
Views: 5146

Re: How to save BIG in a HCOLA

...Living xpenses without housing becomes 89K. We have no car payment so it’ll be less. I cant see us spend 89K a year without housing but what do I know about NoVa? :confused I'm confused too because those numbers don't add for me. 240 - 46 (taxes) - 80 (savings) - 36 (housing) = 78, not 89. Our n...
by Streptococcus
Wed Jan 29, 2020 2:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to save BIG in a HCOLA
Replies: 64
Views: 5146

Re: How to save BIG in a HCOLA

The biggest expense in a HCOL area is the cost of living. There is no magic here. Keep you living expense down by purchasing the smallest house you can stand and be happy in. You look at the bay area and people are buying houses 4x-5x of income because they feel they have no choice. This is a recip...