Search found 683 matches

by Svensk Anga
Thu May 21, 2020 1:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does Capital one send emails when their interest rate decreases?
Replies: 25
Views: 1075

Re: Does Capital one send emails when their interest rate decreases?

I'm not aware of any banks that notify account holders when interest rates drop. Cap. One recently dropped from 1.5% to 1.3% APY on their Performance Savings account (within the last week or days, I think). I’ve been getting emails from American Express bank when their rate drops. Not a peep out of...
by Svensk Anga
Tue May 19, 2020 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“
Replies: 138
Views: 8708

Re: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“

It does make sense to look at the numbers before assuming our opinions on a given country we have never been set foot in is correct.:http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/ctryprem.html The ERP for it is 7.30% compared to 6.01% for USA. The country risk premium is 1.29% for it ...
by Svensk Anga
Sun May 10, 2020 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Going by PORTFOLIO VISUALIZER Wellesley Income fund lasted 35 years with a 9% withdrawal could this be right?
Replies: 32
Views: 2685

Re: Going by PORTFOLIO VISUALIZER Wellesley Income fund lasted 35 years with a 9% withdrawal could this be right?

I did not check it, but believe it could be right. A wide range of safe withdrawal rates is possible. The 4% of the SWR “rule” is just the low end of the range in the US historically. The issue is you cannot know on the day you retire what maximum SWR the markets and your allocation will support. Th...
by Svensk Anga
Tue May 05, 2020 11:11 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: strong value/ small value tilt and the concern of extensive small company bankruptcies/ tough times for large value
Replies: 9
Views: 748

Re: strong value/ small value tilt and the concern of extensive small company bankruptcies/ tough times for large value

The White Coat Investor posted on SCV just yesterday. Check this link: https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com/small-cap-value-strategy/ My guess is that the market tends to over-react in a crisis. SCV, having fallen further, might well rebound stronger as the crisis passes. It has tended to be a stronger...
by Svensk Anga
Sun May 03, 2020 7:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me understand TIPS
Replies: 15
Views: 822

Re: Help me understand TIPS

You had to pay a premium because the coupon rate (0.125%) is higher than the real yield (-0.32%). You should earn the inflation rate minus 0.32%/year if you hold to maturity. It depends a bit on how you invest those coupon payments twice a year. The value of your bond decaying from $1022.26 at purch...
by Svensk Anga
Sat May 02, 2020 9:33 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: IRS Get My Payment up and running
Replies: 369
Views: 24305

Re: IRS Get My Payment up and running

I got my payment today. I entered banking info a week ago after they apparently uploaded the 2018 tax return data. Get My Payment never provided a notice that it was coming, even this am. On a whim, I checked get my payment this morning after getting the deposit yesterday. IRS now says it is schedu...
by Svensk Anga
Fri May 01, 2020 5:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: IRS Get My Payment up and running
Replies: 369
Views: 24305

Re: IRS Get My Payment up and running

I got my payment today. I entered banking info a week ago after they apparently uploaded the 2018 tax return data. Get My Payment never provided a notice that it was coming, even this am.
by Svensk Anga
Fri Apr 24, 2020 7:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Jim Cramer] "Stop Buying Index Funds"
Replies: 37
Views: 6029

Re: [Jim Cramer] "Stop Buying Index Funds"

nisiprius wrote:
Fri Apr 24, 2020 5:46 am
. The SEC is allowing a 45-day delay on filing 10-K and 10-Q forms and the financial press expects many companies to delay earnings reports?
It seems to me that delayed reporting increases the risk that the guy on the other side of your trade has some not yet public information. No thanks.
by Svensk Anga
Mon Apr 20, 2020 9:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why was crude E&P up today?
Replies: 3
Views: 346

Re: Why was crude E&P up today?

Maybe a bunch of folks rushing in to buy at the presumed low?
by Svensk Anga
Sun Apr 19, 2020 8:53 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to get more information about stable value fund in 401(k)
Replies: 2
Views: 273

Re: How to get more information about stable value fund in 401(k)

I can’t find a published current yield for my SVF. It pays interest once a month and when it does, I calculate the average yield for that month.
by Svensk Anga
Fri Apr 17, 2020 4:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hypothetical iBond/Stable Value Fund Question
Replies: 4
Views: 267

Re: Hypothetical iBond/Stable Value Fund Question

Sometimes I bonds are clearly a better deal than TIPS (like now till the end of the month) and sometimes TIPS look better than I bonds. I could see buying the I bonds when they are an anomalously good deal and skipping it when it is questionable. If TIPS are priced correctly relative to nominal bond...
by Svensk Anga
Wed Apr 15, 2020 9:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: IRS Get My Payment up and running
Replies: 369
Views: 24305

Re: IRS Get My Payment up and running

I got something like "unable to determine eligibility". They have had my 2018 return for over a year and it clearly qualifies.

We have to file with an identity protection PIN. I wonder if this could be blocking access?
by Svensk Anga
Tue Apr 14, 2020 5:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: International Growth (VWIGX) Outperformance
Replies: 28
Views: 1344

Re: International Growth (VWIGX) Outperformance

I looked at the 10-year growth chart on Vanguard. For the first six years, it was running essentially a dead heat with the MSCI index. Four years ago, it started to pull ahead. The fund uses two management companies. One of the managers started in 2016, coincident with the divergence. Watch for that...
by Svensk Anga
Sun Apr 12, 2020 11:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When to take social security
Replies: 24
Views: 1794

Re: When to take social security

I used to think that the option of taking SS early might be a cute way to dodge a stock market decline. A very recent post from Oblivious Investor, Mike Piper, has forced me to alter my thinking. See here: https://obliviousinvestor.com/social-security-in-a-down-market-does-it-make-more-sense-to-file...
by Svensk Anga
Sat Apr 11, 2020 2:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: CARES act 401k withdrawal
Replies: 6
Views: 544

Re: CARES act 401k withdrawal

I am pondering a variation on your plan. I am in retirement. My plan includes spending down our taxable portfolio first. We will be out of fixed income/cash in taxable by the end of 2021, so would have to sell stocks to meet expenses early in 2022. I thought we could take the CARES withdrawal in ord...
by Svensk Anga
Mon Apr 06, 2020 8:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: reasons for US tilt in Total US/Intl that don't also support Developed tilt in Developed/Emerging
Replies: 46
Views: 1691

Re: reasons for US tilt in Total US/Intl that don't also support Developed tilt in Developed/Emerging

I hold very little emerging, but not because I wouldn't like to, just because I decided the complexity wasn't worth it. I tilt my entire 30% ex-US stake to small/value via FNDC, a fundamental developed small index. I hold a very small amount of Total International (VTIAX) in my 401k to rebalance up...
by Svensk Anga
Sat Apr 04, 2020 4:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Barbell Strategy in Regards to Duo-career Couples
Replies: 16
Views: 1533

Re: Barbell Strategy in Regards to Duo-career Couples

Having one government job in the family sure was comforting in 2008/2009. The other was corporate in a sector known for boom and bust cycles. There is something to be said for having this diversification. I don't know that I would give up much salary to get it though. Two highly correlated jobs plus...
by Svensk Anga
Sat Apr 04, 2020 1:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Technical Question on Roth IRA Conversion
Replies: 12
Views: 584

Re: Technical Question on Roth IRA Conversion

Open a new Roth and put the conversion there. The new account will have to be a brokerage account since they don’t do mutual fund accounts any more. I would label it as Roth from rollover IRA or some such since I think the ERISA protections survive conversion.
by Svensk Anga
Wed Apr 01, 2020 4:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why can't investors stop watching the financial markets?
Replies: 14
Views: 1401

Re: Why can't investors stop watching the financial markets?

In the era of retirement funding largely via IRA/401k, one’s future well being is very much tied to how the financial markets perform. In the good ole days of pensions, that was your employer’s problem, at least for the subset who had a pension. For a good part of the self funded retirement crowd, I...
by Svensk Anga
Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you incorporate I bonds into your retirement plans?
Replies: 25
Views: 1598

Re: How do you incorporate I bonds into your retirement plans?

I built a CD and TIPS ladder to cover routine expenses from early retirement to age 70 and maximum SS. I added I bonds to handle non-routine/lumpy expenses like car or AC replacement and big insurance deductibles. They work well for the non-routine since you can redeem them at any time after a year ...
by Svensk Anga
Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Safety of Vanguard Money Market Funds
Replies: 18
Views: 2103

Re: Safety of Vanguard Money Market Funds

Sounds like you might want to move to CD’s and or high yield savings accounts spread around over several banks to stay within FDIC limits. Yields on mm are going to nil anyway.
by Svensk Anga
Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Time to tax GAIN harvest. Which lots?
Replies: 13
Views: 534

Re: Time to tax GAIN harvest. Which lots?

I would lean toward harvesting lot 2, with the highest basis. This would give you the largest block of funds to sell later with minimal tax consequences. If any of this might go to a beneficiary with a step up in basis, best it is the lowest basis lots.
by Svensk Anga
Sat Mar 21, 2020 4:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds in taxable Stocks in tax deferred
Replies: 6
Views: 378

Re: Bonds in taxable Stocks in tax deferred

I made this mistake coming out of the 2008/2009 crash. I was aiming for early retirement in about six years and I thought the short time horizon till spending down my taxable account meant that I should have fixed income there. My tax deferred was thought of as long term, so I continued to buy equit...
by Svensk Anga
Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Low international (VXUS) dividend
Replies: 12
Views: 666

Re: Low international (VXUS) dividend

If you look at the distribution page for this fund at Vanguard, it is apparent the the majority of the payout comes in June and December. I guess a lot of foreign companies are on semiannual schedules rather than quarterly. The present decline is not much of the annual yield. December 2019 was much ...
by Svensk Anga
Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio's paradigm change
Replies: 46
Views: 2838

Re: Ray Dalio's paradigm change

In the personal finance area, an interesting touchstone for me is to see whether people writing general advice for mass affluent retirement savers mention savings bonds or not . This is an example of a decent investment with interesting characteristics different from other asset classes, that are r...
by Svensk Anga
Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone else think this is a once in a lifetime opportunity to buy treasuries?
Replies: 68
Views: 8445

Re: Does anyone else think this is a once in a lifetime opportunity to buy treasuries?

TIPS real yields look pretty good today, but not once in a lifetime levels: https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield Notice how much they have come up since earlier in the month. You are likely to see some deflation near term so nom...
by Svensk Anga
Wed Mar 18, 2020 4:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Treasury extends [tax payment date 90 days, filing deadline still April 15]
Replies: 80
Views: 2914

Re: Official IRS statement on tax payment due date

As I read it, the 1st quarter estimated tax payment is due 7/15. No mention of the second quarter payment which presumably is still due 6/15.
by Svensk Anga
Tue Mar 17, 2020 12:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Treasury extends [tax payment date 90 days, filing deadline still April 15]
Replies: 80
Views: 2914

Re: Treasury extends tax filing by 60 days

Well, at least one thing is going my way lately. I abused the safe harbor rules in 2019 and so owe quite a bit. Of course, with short term rates cratering, the time value ain’t much.
by Svensk Anga
Sun Mar 15, 2020 6:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: One-way rebalancing: typical practice?
Replies: 35
Views: 1579

Re: One-way rebalancing: typical practice?

Maybe I'm a one-way rebalancer. I don't know what my stock allocation limit is, but I apparently have not hit it yet, whatever it may be. There are two camps of retirement planners, safety first and probability. The probability folks look to history and calculate that this and such approach with reb...
by Svensk Anga
Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Timing - Should we have seen this coming?
Replies: 67
Views: 3828

Re: Market Timing - Should we have seen this coming?

I think the Covid bottom might have been a week ago, or at least not much lower. It could be that what really roiled the markets this week was the Russian/OPEC oil price war. That event you likely did not / could not see coming. Other disease scares were barely noticed by the markets. If Covid by it...
by Svensk Anga
Tue Mar 03, 2020 9:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Can Fed “Tools” Save This Market?
Replies: 36
Views: 2299

Re: How Can Fed “Tools” Save This Market?

I don't understand why people expect the Fed to try to "save this market." The job of the Fed, written into law in 1977, is: "promote effectively the goals of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long term interest rates." Nothing there about the market. So what about the Fed's job? Empl...
by Svensk Anga
Sat Feb 29, 2020 11:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you have won the game, how much risk do you take?
Replies: 78
Views: 7029

Re: If you have won the game, how much risk do you take?

It's not very confidence-inspiring when people say that over the tiny bit of history we have their accumulaion would have funded their retirement. It seems likely there will be worse and better outcomes than we have seen before at some point in history, even if that point is hundreds or thousands o...
by Svensk Anga
Sat Feb 29, 2020 10:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: stop playing the game, 0/100 and hyperinflation scenario
Replies: 60
Views: 4464

Re: stop playing the game, 0/100 and hyperinflation scenario

The 4% rule/25x expenses idea is based on planning for constant inflation-adjusted spending throughout retirement. Real retirees do not maintain constant spending. They spend at a good clip early on, then spending goes into a long steady decline until a very late life peak when medical expenses beco...
by Svensk Anga
Tue Feb 25, 2020 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3949
Views: 296680

Re: Coronavirus and the bear market

I think that valuations were high enough and that the bull had gone on long enough (if you ignore 19.9% corrections), that folks were getting nervous that the party might end soon and any bit of bad news could have triggered a sell-off. Once it starts, it becomes contagious (no pun intended). I thin...
by Svensk Anga
Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: [401K]Explain technically how staying allocated Aggressive is superior over Conservative "time the market"
Replies: 14
Views: 1411

Re: [401K]Explain technically how staying allocated Aggressive is superior over Conservative "time the market"

It's a bit like trying to pick the fastest lane of traffic on the interstate freeway during rush hour. I like that analogy. It is something we all can identify with. Another issue is that market returns do not synchronize with recessions. The markets are forward looking for the most part. They will...
by Svensk Anga
Mon Feb 24, 2020 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks in retirement
Replies: 5
Views: 710

Re: Stocks in retirement

This is quite a contrast from the Pfau/Kitces approach of a "bond tent" (high bond allocation at retirement, then rising equity glide path). In fact, it may make sense for today’s retirees to keep as much as 60% of their investment assets in equities, especially in their first decade of retirement, ...
by Svensk Anga
Sun Feb 23, 2020 8:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffet on renewable energy
Replies: 94
Views: 6890

Re: Warren Buffet on renewable energy

I think wind turbines are an environmental disaster. They kill birds and bats by the hundreds. The emit low-frequency noise, so they cannot be located near people. You still need all the fuel burning plants for back-up, so have to have all the capital for two systems or accept your lights going out ...
by Svensk Anga
Sun Feb 23, 2020 12:37 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Golfers - how often do you get new clubs?
Replies: 46
Views: 2663

Re: Golfers - how often do you get new clubs?

If your driver's head volume is less than 460 cc, you might do well to update there. You already have cavity back irons, which are a major upgrade from the old forged blades for forgiveness. My guess is that everything since then is only marginal improvement, driven by the needs of the manufacturer'...
by Svensk Anga
Sun Feb 23, 2020 10:35 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Tip Toeing Into Energy Sector
Replies: 76
Views: 3235

Re: Tip Toeing Into Energy Sector

I could see the movement toward ESG investing putting relative downward pressure on these stocks for some time. The underlying businesses may do well, but the stocks maybe not.
by Svensk Anga
Wed Feb 19, 2020 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would you ever hold enough Fixed Income to cover you until a certain age?
Replies: 55
Views: 3158

Re: Would you ever hold enough Fixed Income to cover you until a certain age?

Yes, we do hold sufficient fixed income to get to our planning age, 95, but with one caveat. Following Bill Bernstein (Ages of the Investor), I am counting half of our equities' dividend stream as reliable income. Our fixed income is mostly a ladder of CD's and TIPS to get to maximal SS at age 70. A...
by Svensk Anga
Wed Feb 19, 2020 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you objectively set Stock vs Bond Allocation
Replies: 81
Views: 5955

Re: How do you objectively set Stock vs Bond Allocation

I like the strategy laid out in this post for allocation as of the retirement date: https://obliviousinvestor.com/an-ideal-retirement-spending-strategy/ Note that aside from the bonds used to bridge to a maximal SS benefit, an equity-heavy portfolio tested well. But many allocations outside the brid...
by Svensk Anga
Sun Feb 16, 2020 6:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: At what age did you begin adding bonds?
Replies: 138
Views: 7482

Re: At what age did you begin adding bonds?

I really started adding bonds at 50. I set a glide path to get me to my desired bond allocation by an intended age 55 retirement. The bond allocation was calculated to satisfy liability matching rather than as a percentage of the portfolio. Markets cooperated so it worked out well.
by Svensk Anga
Wed Feb 12, 2020 7:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tactic to Induce Myself to Keep Working
Replies: 26
Views: 2879

Re: Tactic to Induce Myself to Keep Working

You might see if you can negotiate an unpaid leave of absence if your annual vacation time is not enough. This could turn into an annual thing, though I suspect your employer will frown on that. or it could be an extended one time deal. Take a month (or more) off. Call it a trial retirement, but wit...
by Svensk Anga
Wed Feb 12, 2020 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: At what point is this a bubble?
Replies: 157
Views: 14197

Re: At what point is this a bubble?

We probably are in a bubble (it seems Greenspan era Fed policies create these) just based on these IPOs alone (so reminiscent of dotcom), but who knows how long it goes and when it pops. I think the WeWork IPO would have sailed right through in 1999 without any scrutiny. Seems that the market is mo...
by Svensk Anga
Tue Feb 11, 2020 6:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Prof. Damodaran Equity Risk Premium
Replies: 2
Views: 377

Prof. Damodaran Equity Risk Premium

Professor Damodaran (Professor of Finance at the Stern School of Business at NYU) is out with his annual estimate of the equity risk premium, as of 1/1/2020. See here: http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2020/02/data-update-3-for-2020-price-of-risk.html He estimates the ERP as 5.20% above the risk-f...
by Svensk Anga
Sun Feb 09, 2020 10:52 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Roth Conversion Dilemma
Replies: 6
Views: 599

Re: Roth Conversion Dilemma

If your income and tax situation will accommodate it, you could sell stocks up to the limit of the 0% LTCG bracket one year and do Roth conversions to your desired limit the next. It helps to use specific ID for sales so you can sell the highest basis lots and therefore raise the most sales proceeds...
by Svensk Anga
Sat Feb 08, 2020 6:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do I have 2 Vangaurd settlement funds?
Replies: 7
Views: 917

Re: Why do I have 2 Vangaurd settlement funds?

Sure wish Vanguard would allow for fractional share buying of ETF's like Fidelity is starting to do now. Currently, I have to wait until my settlement account shows a trade amount that's higher than the ETF share price I'm looking to buy and then go in and make the purchase manually every time. I l...
by Svensk Anga
Sat Feb 08, 2020 6:16 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: NY Solar Farms- Scam?
Replies: 33
Views: 3740

Re: NY Solar Farms- Scam?

The catch is by going "green" via this operator, you are supporting plowing up nature and paving it with solar panels. If you must go solar, they belong on buildings, above parking lots, other spaces already developed. Have you ever been to upstate NY? Plenty of it was plowed up hundreds of years a...
by Svensk Anga
Sat Feb 08, 2020 5:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HSA: How much in your account is enough
Replies: 9
Views: 1477

Re: HSA: How much in your account is enough

Fidelity annually publishes a number for out of pocket costs for a retired couple. It is about $250,000 - $300,000 now, in today’s dollars. You might shoot for that plus whatever your stack of receipts totals when you retire. Medicare premiums, dental, vision, hearing aids, deductibles, and copays w...
by Svensk Anga
Fri Feb 07, 2020 10:46 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: NY Solar Farms- Scam?
Replies: 33
Views: 3740

Re: NY Solar Farms- Scam?

I live in western New York. In the last few months I have received several mailings from Solar Farms NY asking me to join and lower my energy bill. Makes it sound like it is free money- so I smell a rat. Apparently this company is installing solar panel farms on waste land and by joining I get "ene...