Search found 751 matches

by Chan_va
Tue Jun 19, 2018 5:32 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much car to buy reasonably?
Replies: 72
Views: 3540

Re: How much car to buy reasonably?

The right answer on any car thread is always - a Miata.

Fun, reliable, low cost, trackable..... ticks all your boxes.
by Chan_va
Sat Jun 16, 2018 3:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Washington GET 529 Reopened: Good deal?
Replies: 43
Views: 5268

Re: Washington GET 529 Reopened: Good deal?

We are currently WA state residents but unlikely to be so when it comes time to claim benefits. Thoughts on the role of the GET program in our case? I guess we are betting that the instate tuition in WA keeps up with the national average. How should I think about the mix between a traditional 529 an...
by Chan_va
Wed Jun 13, 2018 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Imagine a 10 year, 0%, noncallable loan
Replies: 49
Views: 2985

Re: Imagine a 10 year, 0%, noncallable loan

As other people have pointed out, this is equivalent to bidding on the bond yield, which means your APR is no longer 0%. So let's assume that the banker puts this up for bidding. He/she already has 1 bidder - the US treasury, which is currently offering 3% on a T year t note. So you are going to hav...
by Chan_va
Wed Jun 13, 2018 11:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Deep History of Stock & Bond Returns
Replies: 75
Views: 4939

Re: The Deep History of Stock & Bond Returns

Thanks for sharing the data. Any similar long term data on real returns of real estate and commodities? I have seen a few studies (The Amsterdam house price index over 400 years for e.g), but I haven't seen any comprehensive data on the topic.
by Chan_va
Tue Jun 12, 2018 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]
Replies: 198
Views: 11359

Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Folks, while skepticism is healthy, outright hostility is not. OP has made a claim, and offered to provide data to test his claim. OP, we don't need detailed transaction history. It would be a lot simpler, and you wouldn't have to reveal too much personal data, if you started with a test portfolio. ...
by Chan_va
Tue Jun 05, 2018 9:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, you can diversify a market portfolio
Replies: 190
Views: 9370

Re: Yes, you can diversify a market portfolio

Not sure I follow your argument. Lets look at 2 portfolio's Portfolio 1: 100% VOO (S&P 500 ETF) Portfolio 2: 50% VOO, 50% SSO (2x leveraged S&P 500 ETF) Using your definition of diversification (weighted average of volatility/portfolio volatility), I get Portfolio 1 diversity=1.0 Portfolio 2 diversi...
by Chan_va
Tue May 22, 2018 5:07 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Checked under the hood of index funds and investment firms
Replies: 8
Views: 1619

Re: Checked under the hood of index funds and investment firms

Can you give us an example of what you are referring to? Sure there may be some bad apples but there are a ton of good options from Fidelity, Schwab, Blackrock etc.

Also, you can buy vanguard funds/etf’s at a full service brokerage with better service and get the best of both worlds.
by Chan_va
Wed May 16, 2018 6:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This is Unbelievable - another Vanguard customer support odyssey
Replies: 59
Views: 12219

Re: This is Unbelievable - another Vanguard customer support odyssey

Another datapoint on Vanguard growing faster than it's support and systems can handle. I have enough assets at Vanguard to move from one tier to the next. But Vanguard wont move me since they don't have enough staff to support clients at the next tier. As someone else mentioned, I would gladly pay a...
by Chan_va
Thu May 03, 2018 1:09 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to treat a mortgage in context of long term investment
Replies: 12
Views: 1234

Re: How to treat a mortgage in context of long term investment

Op, you are mostly right with 2 caveats 1. The "duration" of a 30 year fixed rate mortgage is closer to 9 years, so you would compare it to a bond of that duration 2. A fixed rate mortgage has option value wrt inflation/deflation. You can think of it as a non callable negative bond, but you have the...
by Chan_va
Thu May 03, 2018 12:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allocating to last year's S&P (joke? riddle? paradox?)
Replies: 47
Views: 3386

Re: Allocating to last year's S&P (joke? riddle? paradox?)

Nisiprius, Haven't you just proven that a 2 year moving average is less volatile than the time series itself? If you could do this, you could take your argument further, and construct a combination of n-year moving averages (lots of standard stats techniques to do this) to smooth away as much volati...
by Chan_va
Thu May 03, 2018 12:04 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do you know when you have "won the game"?
Replies: 142
Views: 15637

Re: How do you know when you have "won the game"?

OP, I hate to be the one to break it to you, but you aren't the outlier that you think you are in NW. You have a paid off home with 3.5M in investable assets, a real estate investment that (hopefully) is cash flow positive. That puts you somewhere in the "above average" category here. You are not cl...
by Chan_va
Tue May 01, 2018 12:58 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do you know when you have "won the game"?
Replies: 142
Views: 15637

Re: How do you know when you have "won the game"?

Boglehead answer: When you can live on the interest on your interest. Anything less is wildly reckless. MrMoneyMoustache answer: Trick question, because everyone has won the game. Show me a family of 4 spending more than $5 a year living in Manhattan, and I will show you flagrant excess. The Truth (...
by Chan_va
Mon Apr 23, 2018 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard factor funds slow to catch on
Replies: 50
Views: 5103

Re: Vanguard factor funds slow to catch on

For those of you using Vanguard's Personal Advisory Services (PAS) have they started pitching a factor strategy? That would seem to be the easiest way for Vanguard to get these funds off the ground.
by Chan_va
Thu Apr 05, 2018 5:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Asking for a raise/promotion with another offer in hand
Replies: 103
Views: 7152

Re: Asking for a raise/promotion with another offer in hand

Not sure what industry/area of the country you are in, but here is some advice that would apply in the tech world, and maybe more broadly 1. Decide if you want to leave, or if you will stay if your current employer offers x. 2. If you decide that you will stay if your current employer offers x, Be o...
by Chan_va
Mon Apr 02, 2018 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6636
Views: 1432686

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Folks,

There is a reason Equity Risk Premium has the word "Risk" in it. People have been lulled by the relentless rise of the market over the past few years. That is not normal. The equity market has always been volatile. It's precisely times like this when sticking to your AA matters most.
by Chan_va
Mon Apr 02, 2018 10:52 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Career Move: Please convince me why I should not work in tech
Replies: 74
Views: 7337

Re: Career Move: Please convince me why I should not work in tech

OP, You are spot on and haven't missed anything. Take the plunge into tech. If you have the chops to get hired at a top tier tech company, it's definitely worth it. There is likely more risk, but the risk/reward ratio is in your favor. P.S - I hire people like you at a Tier-1 tech company. PM me if ...
by Chan_va
Thu Mar 29, 2018 10:42 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Mystery: Gas bill says therms increased 33% year over year but temperature stayed the same. Why?
Replies: 26
Views: 1850

Re: Mystery: Gas bill says therms increased 33% year over year but temperature stayed the same. Why?

It could be a case where averages are deceiving, and outliers matter. Have you had a lot more really cold days and really warm days this year? The energy efficiency as the temperature drops is not linear.
by Chan_va
Thu Mar 29, 2018 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Exit / Bonus Farming plan... what can go wrong?
Replies: 34
Views: 2960

Re: Vanguard Exit / Bonus Farming plan... what can go wrong?

So what are the best bonuses out there for transfers right now?
by Chan_va
Tue Mar 27, 2018 3:39 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Savannah or Charleston?
Replies: 49
Views: 4287

Re: Savannah or Charleston?

I vote for Savannah. Charleston when I visited was too "touristy" and a little bit like any other burgeoning hip town. Savannah is one of those places you can walk along on a hot summer eve below dripping Spanish Moss, marvel at slightly dilapidated old buildings, stop by actual holes in the wall, a...
by Chan_va
Thu Mar 08, 2018 7:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Illusion of "The Long-Term Average" in Investing
Replies: 61
Views: 7921

Re: The Illusion of "The Long-Term Average" in Investing

I agree with the premise here. However, that raises a more insidious question. Isn't the whole Boglehead investing approach based on the assumption that over the "long term", equities "tend to" go up? What if that is not true? What if the last 80 years of data is a pimple of calm in a sea of volatil...
by Chan_va
Mon Feb 26, 2018 4:41 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [What UN-frugal thing do you do? What do you splurge on?]
Replies: 567
Views: 38845

Re: What UN-frugal thing do you do?

Booked a 1 week vacation that will cost me 3x my monthly rent.
by Chan_va
Mon Feb 26, 2018 3:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Meeting my tenant the first time - need help
Replies: 14
Views: 1462

Re: Meeting my tenant the first time - need help

Do not tell the tenant that you are having issues with the manager. They may be friends. Do not let the manager go with you for the visit. Tell the tenant you are doing a owner annual walk through inspection and meet the tenants visit. Notify them of your walk through. Look for signs of bad activit...
by Chan_va
Fri Feb 23, 2018 12:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Grand Velas, Cabo
Replies: 0
Views: 188

Grand Velas, Cabo

Folks,

We (family of 4, kids aged 3 and 7) are looking to go for a week to Cabo at the Grand Velas. Reviews online seem good, but I would like to hear of any personal experiences regarding the food, service, family friendliness etc.

Thanks!

chan_va
by Chan_va
Sun Jan 21, 2018 2:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone donated a car to charity?
Replies: 25
Views: 1604

Re: Anyone donated a car to charity?

It's fairly painless. If the value of the car is less than $500, you can just claim it with a justification from KBB. If it's more than that - the charity will need to provide you documentation of auction value. Should take a couple of months. Research the charity that you can considering. Most char...
by Chan_va
Mon Jan 08, 2018 12:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New 529 Plan Rules
Replies: 22
Views: 2455

Re: New 529 Plan Rules

Does anyone know what the list of approved expenses are for a public elementary school?

Can I pay using a 529 for

- Books/ supplies?
- Camps when school is out of session (e.g. Easter break) ?
- Tutors/extra classes outside school?
by Chan_va
Thu Jan 04, 2018 12:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Airbnb - Guide a beginner
Replies: 28
Views: 3068

Re: Airbnb - Guide a beginner

I have had much better luck booking through professional rental management companies. As someone of a non-Caucasian background, I have found that many times, AirBnB locations have mysteriously filled up right after I make a request to book.
by Chan_va
Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:33 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: My 2017 Budget
Replies: 36
Views: 4782

Re: My 2017 Budget

Family of 4, VHCOL area. Total 2017 spend - 132k. Looking at the responses here, I need to do some trimming of the budget Top 5 categories Rent - 35% Travel - 14% Food - 12% - A lot going to restaurants here, need to do better Childcare - 11% Cars - 8% - includes lease payment on one car, insurance ...
by Chan_va
Mon Jan 01, 2018 9:57 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What frugal thing did you do today?
Replies: 483
Views: 43053

Re: What frugal thing did you do today?

Being frugal should extend beyond your personal world. Maybe to resource use. So to take a longer shower purposely at the gym is not frugal at all. Frugal is about money but also about waste of a resource when it is not necessary. You don't do things because you can, you do them because you should....
by Chan_va
Sat Dec 16, 2017 2:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What 529 plan are you using?
Replies: 20
Views: 2837

Re: What 529 plan are you using?

I used to live in VA and have moved out. But still use the VA plan. They have good low cost Vanguard funds. But their age based portfolio’s seem overly complex. I just use the index funds and plan to adjust the glide path myself.
by Chan_va
Thu Dec 14, 2017 1:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to find a good realtor that negotiates well
Replies: 21
Views: 1686

Re: How to find a good realtor that negotiates well

Are you in a buyers market or sellers market where you are? In general, with sale comps and other listing prices being pretty transparent on the internet, there isn't much negotiating a realtor can do nowadays.
by Chan_va
Tue Dec 05, 2017 6:17 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Week in San Diego over Christmas
Replies: 17
Views: 1319

Re: Week in San Diego over Christmas

Thanks for the suggestions folks. Much appreciated.
by Chan_va
Tue Dec 05, 2017 12:46 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Week in San Diego over Christmas
Replies: 17
Views: 1319

Week in San Diego over Christmas

Folks, We will be in San Diego for a week over the Christmas break. Staying in La Jolla. Family of 4 (kids 8 and 4), and it’s our first trip there. Any suggestions for an itinerary, must-do’s, places to eat, day trips, etc.? In general we like the outdoors, hikes, and I love a good local craft beer....
by Chan_va
Wed Nov 08, 2017 1:55 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What is the story with the Apple iWatch Series 3?
Replies: 26
Views: 2372

Re: What is the story with the Apple iWatch Series 3?

I have the latest 3 series watch with cellular. I recently went for a run on the trail with just my watch, where I tracked my mileage and heart rate, used Apple maps to find a barber near the trail, paid for a haircut with Apple Pay on the watch, called my wife from the watch to tell her I was runni...
by Chan_va
Sun Oct 15, 2017 1:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What are you driving? And would you buy your current ride again?
Replies: 130
Views: 9259

Re: What are you driving? And would you buy your current ride again?

16 golf Gti manual.

Fun, but if I were to buy again I would buy the dual clutch. The manual on the vw is just not as precise and fun as say a Miata.
by Chan_va
Fri Sep 15, 2017 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Distressing news -> Flight to Safety ?
Replies: 75
Views: 8164

Re: Distressing news -> Flight to Safety ?

If you truly believe a storm is coming, exchanging out of TBM into treasuries is a bit like adding plywood cladding to your underground bunker, while leaving your glass windows open.
by Chan_va
Sat Aug 19, 2017 2:28 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: "Structured" Flip Flops, Slides
Replies: 30
Views: 3991

Re: "Structured" Flip Flops, Slides

Pure click bait. I clicked on this thread thinking this was about some fancy new options strategy that investment banks were structuring.
by Chan_va
Thu Aug 17, 2017 1:36 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is $9000 too much for a sectional sofa ?
Replies: 130
Views: 11644

Re: Is $9000 too much for a sectional sofa ?

The real question is - "What $5K watch do you wear when lounging on the sectional?"
by Chan_va
Tue Aug 01, 2017 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "the top 1 percent of families had $1.08 million or more saved in 2013."
Replies: 26
Views: 4780

Re: "the top 1 percent of families had $1.08 million or more saved in 2013."

This specifically looks at amount in 401k plans. The top 1% have ~8M in net worth.
by Chan_va
Thu Jul 27, 2017 5:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. Stock Market — My, How You’ve Changed!
Replies: 52
Views: 6201

Re: U.S. Stock Market — My, How You’ve Changed!

I don't really see why historical returns become irrelevant as markets change. Investors are always going to demand a risk premium for investing in risky assets. To me as an investor, the risk premium I expect is roughly the same if I am investing in a market dominated by risky railroad businesses a...
by Chan_va
Wed Jul 26, 2017 11:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: BMW Z3 or Z4 or nothing at all?
Replies: 79
Views: 7642

Re: BMW Z3 or Z4 or nothing at all?

Owned a 1999 Z3 3.0 for 7 years. Looks good, but expensive to maintain. Terrible chassis balance and prone to nasty snap oversteer.

As with any "what car to buy" question, the right answer always is - a Miata.
by Chan_va
Mon Jul 10, 2017 1:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Information, New Viewpoint on Investing?
Replies: 28
Views: 3005

Re: New Information, New Viewpoint on Investing?

I used to believe that 'alpha' was a myth. Paradoxically after spending time on the forum, I have come to believe that it is possible for the small investor to generate some alpha. But the catch is that for a small investor, the time, effort and mental energy required is too great for the payoff. An...
by Chan_va
Sun Jul 09, 2017 3:32 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: can't logon to vanguard account [Website Down]
Replies: 92
Views: 5549

Re: can't logon to vanguard account [Website Down]

I don't think those not in the tech sector realize how basic this is. It's not about my making critical transactions at 10 am on Sunday. It's a symptom of a much deeper problem. If vanguard can't roll out routine upgrades without taking the site down- something your average blogger can now do easily...
by Chan_va
Sun Jul 09, 2017 11:19 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: can't logon to vanguard account [Website Down]
Replies: 92
Views: 5549

Re: Is Vanguard down this AM (7/9/17)?

Guys this is not your average mom and pop website. This is a website and backend that manages trillions of dollars. There is no excuse for any downtime. Is is routine to have clusters of servers and have updates done on a rolling basis that results in no downtime. Websites that are far less critical...
by Chan_va
Thu Jun 01, 2017 2:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Changing Car Cabin Air Filter - after how much time
Replies: 45
Views: 3762

Re: Changing Car Cabin Air Filter - after how much time

On most cars, its a simple DIY job. You can buy cheap non OEM filters. Dont. When you do replace it, replace it with the OEM part.
by Chan_va
Thu Jun 01, 2017 10:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Drowning in debt
Replies: 52
Views: 6086

Re: Drowning in debt

What did you purchase with the $140k HELOC? For privacy, I don't wish to disclose it here. I can say it is an asset that I expect to appreciate at 5% per year and costs next to nothing to keep. Sell the asset and pay off the HELOC. You are arbitraging a potential gain of 5% vs. a certain loss of 4%...
by Chan_va
Mon May 29, 2017 8:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Approach for 'doing better' with emergency funds?
Replies: 23
Views: 2699

Re: Approach for 'doing better' with emergency funds?

What is your marginal tax bracket? There are things that matter in investing and things that don't. A 2% swing one way or another on an emergency fund falls into the latter. Dont sweat it.
by Chan_va
Sun May 21, 2017 2:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield Curve and the Next Stock Market Correction
Replies: 36
Views: 4350

Re: Yield Curve and the Next Stock Market Correction

If I understand right, you are asking the following question. Given a particular value (PE 10?) of the stock market, is there a bond duration that minimizes the loss function of the portfolio over time period Y? If you frame it that way, then the answer becomes - no way to know since you have to pr...
by Chan_va
Sun May 21, 2017 2:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield Curve and the Next Stock Market Correction
Replies: 36
Views: 4350

Re: Yield Curve and the Next Stock Market Correction

If I understand right, you are asking the following question. Given a particular value (PE 10?) of the stock market, is there a bond duration that minimizes the loss function of the portfolio over time period Y? If you frame it that way, then the answer becomes - no way to know since you have to pre...
by Chan_va
Sun May 21, 2017 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value vs Equal vs Other Weighing
Replies: 13
Views: 1276

Re: Value vs Equal vs Other Weighing

nisiprius, Regarding stock, what confuses me is the following: imagine you have a stock that because of any other reason other than changes in fundamentals becomes overvalued (i know value can change a lot depending on each investors' perspective, but lets assume it is a fixed number or a range of ...