Search found 9341 matches

by nedsaid
Sat Apr 21, 2018 5:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How much does tinkering hurt returns?
Replies: 2
Views: 183

Re: How much does tinkering hurt returns?

If I had to guess, it would be that tinkering could cost you 1% to 2% a year in returns. That is if you are changing your basic investing approach. You also have to understand that there are ebbs and flows to the markets, times when one investing approach will outperform another. For example, Small-...
by nedsaid
Sat Apr 21, 2018 5:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I continue to hold REITs?
Replies: 46
Views: 2941

Re: Should I continue to hold REITs?

You and everyone here have been so kind with your input...thank you very much. I was looking at the account and noticed it's barely 3% of the portfolio. I'm just going to hold it. You're right: locking in the loss makes no sense this early. At least the dividends are good. What bothers me is that i...
by nedsaid
Sat Apr 21, 2018 5:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I continue to hold REITs?
Replies: 46
Views: 2941

Re: Should I continue to hold REITs?

What were you wanting me to post? A dry recitation of numbers? Pretty much, I showed people how to use the information presented at Morningstar. Most of it can be accessed for free, without a subscription. Where was I advocating active management? Active management is defined by the BHB and BSB stu...
by nedsaid
Sat Apr 21, 2018 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I’m still not a fan of international bond funds
Replies: 61
Views: 2739

Re: I’m still not a fan of international bond funds

What I love about is board is no one gets away with even the tiniest mistake. That's good. It keeps us all honest! Rick Ferri I came to Larry Swedroe's defense and now I will come to yours. Not that you need me to defend you. What I try to tell people is that markets and the economy are dynamic. So...
by nedsaid
Sat Apr 21, 2018 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I continue to hold REITs?
Replies: 46
Views: 2941

Re: Should I continue to hold REITs?

Another saving grace is that the recent tax law is advantageous to REITs and that will help too. I'm not entirely sure about that (but would welcome discussion). I gather the ability to exclude a part of pass through income benefits REITs, but the inability to deduct some debt may hurt them, since ...
by nedsaid
Sat Apr 21, 2018 3:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I continue to hold REITs?
Replies: 46
Views: 2941

Re: Should I continue to hold REITs?

The thing is that the Original Poster was wavering in his or her committment, the worse thing you can do is buy something you are excited about and then sell in disappointment when performance isn't what was expected. People will repeat this pattern of buy high, sell low and wonder why their return...
by nedsaid
Sat Apr 21, 2018 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I continue to hold REITs?
Replies: 46
Views: 2941

Re: Should I continue to hold REITs?

Just curious do you have any data to support this notion? WIthout data it just sounds like any other person pushing active management and if you beieve in it or not it is overall a loser's game (plenty of data and studies to support that). Good luck. Didn't you read my post? I cited the path that t...
by nedsaid
Sat Apr 21, 2018 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I’m still not a fan of international bond funds
Replies: 61
Views: 2739

Re: I’m still not a fan of international bond funds

I’ve never been a big fan of international bond funds (see my “All About Asset Allocation” book and other posts I’ve made here in the past). They have higher fees than comparable US bond funds and hedging currency adds another hidden layer of cost. On top of that, at the present time, the yields st...
by nedsaid
Sat Apr 21, 2018 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NYT article: Everyone should hire a financial planner
Replies: 90
Views: 5741

Re: NYT article: Everyone should hire a financial planner

I know I have gone into mild heresy on this forum but I have advised people to seek help and advice even if they think they have a good grasp of investing and personal finance. I am mostly do-it-yourself as an investor but I have had my insurance company, my favorite mutual fund company, my independ...
by nedsaid
Sat Apr 21, 2018 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I continue to hold REITs?
Replies: 46
Views: 2941

Re: Should I continue to hold REITs?

Sorry for any thread redundancy. Last year, I added some REIT (VNQ) to my IRA portfolio (app 5%) and has done nothing but lose money. Frankly, with rising rates and with the state of commercial real estate, I'm not sure I have confidence with it in the long run. I thought it would be a good way to ...
by nedsaid
Wed Apr 18, 2018 6:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6393
Views: 1371460

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I think people are missing the fact that the FED can't distort something it's a part of. :twisted: (more so than ever) Except that the Fed did some unprecedented things, for example, the purchase of Mortgage Instruments to help bring down mortgage rates. Historically, the Fed limited its purchases ...
by nedsaid
Wed Apr 18, 2018 6:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unimpressive category averages of managed futures, multialternative, market neutral, etc.
Replies: 82
Views: 5008

Re: Unimpressive category averages of managed futures, multialternative, market neutral, etc.

I might be wrong but I have two theories on what happened. First, was Peak China, my thought is that China's rates of economic were growth peaking right around 2008, just in time for the Beijing Olympics. As Chinese growth slowed, so did the formerly insatiable demand for commodities. Second, is th...
by nedsaid
Wed Apr 18, 2018 5:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The World in 2050 — An Emergent Middle Class
Replies: 35
Views: 3770

Re: The World in 2050 — An Emergent Middle Class

Things can go wrong, for one thing, we will find out the effect of demographics upon economic growth rates. With slow or even negative population growth, you wonder how this bodes for economic growth. My suspicion is that population growth is a powerful factor in economic growth and slower populati...
by nedsaid
Wed Apr 18, 2018 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "5 Common Misconceptions About Index Funds"
Replies: 4
Views: 1688

Re: "5 Common Misconceptions About Index Funds"

Index funds are great investment products and whatever "drawbacks" they have are far less than for active funds. These type of funds should be the core of any investors portfolio.
by nedsaid
Wed Apr 18, 2018 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unimpressive category averages of managed futures, multialternative, market neutral, etc.
Replies: 82
Views: 5008

Re: Unimpressive category averages of managed futures, multialternative, market neutral, etc.

...The raison d'etre of CTAs (commodity trading advisors, i.e. managed futures) has always been crisis alpha... Well, look at the chart. Both the index and the category average existed in 2008-2009. What do you mean by "crisis alpha?" If you mean that they stayed level instead of plunging in 2008-2...
by nedsaid
Wed Apr 18, 2018 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The World in 2050 — An Emergent Middle Class
Replies: 35
Views: 3770

Re: The World in 2050 — An Emergent Middle Class

That is the hope anyway, the future should be bright for stock investors. Things can go wrong, for one thing, we will find out the effect of demographics upon economic growth rates. With slow or even negative population growth, you wonder how this bodes for economic growth. My suspicion is that popu...
by nedsaid
Wed Apr 18, 2018 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rise in rates continues - good for fixed income investors and banks
Replies: 6
Views: 1129

Re: Rise in rates continues - good for fixed income investors and banks

Rates are going up and that should be good for banks. For investors holding bond funds (most of us) this news hasn't been so good. The Vanguard Intermediate Term Treasury Fund has lost 1.65% YTD and the TBM fund has lost 1.54% YTD. Those are nominal returns but currently inflation is running a litt...
by nedsaid
Wed Apr 18, 2018 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle Attends Warren Buffett's Shareholder Meeting
Replies: 5
Views: 791

Re: John Bogle Attends Warren Buffett's Shareholder Meeting

John Bogle is one of the good guys. It is nice to see him get well deserved recognition. Now onto the Presidential Medal of Freedom.
by nedsaid
Wed Apr 18, 2018 11:39 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Broke up with my girlfriend for financial reasons: crazy?
Replies: 53
Views: 3036

Re: Broke up with my girlfriend for financial reasons: crazy?

Hello Bogleheads, I just broke up with my girlfriend of 6 months for financial reasons, and wanted to share what happened with this forum, as it seems to be incredibly difficult for me to find a significant other who shares my financial goals, and I'm wondering if I'm being too strict with my stand...
by nedsaid
Wed Apr 18, 2018 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What advantages do a personalized portfolio have over a target date fund, in your opinion?
Replies: 49
Views: 2832

Re: What advantages do a personalized portfolio have over a target date fund, in your opinion?

This is an interesting question because I once asked a Fidelity adviser who was trying to sell me on portfolio management the same question. I asked what would be the difference between the service he was offering and just buying one of their target date funds and he said that was a really good que...
by nedsaid
Tue Apr 17, 2018 8:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6393
Views: 1371460

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Oh Oh. I joked a lot about how this thread was a contrary indicator. With the exception of the August 2015 through February 2016 market correction, it seemed that after this thread would pop up again that the market would rally. Now it seems that every time someone posts after a market rally that th...
by nedsaid
Tue Apr 17, 2018 8:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NAESX - is not really Small Cap?!
Replies: 36
Views: 2154

Re: NAESX - is not really Small Cap?!

If your Small-Cap fund or ETF has a bunch of Mid-Caps in it, no reason to panic. Those of you who believe in factor tilting, Mid-Caps give you most of the returns of Small-Caps with less volatility. Some people, Mel Lindauer included, believe that Mid-Caps are the "Sweet Spot" of the stock market. J...
by nedsaid
Tue Apr 17, 2018 9:26 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Allegiant Airlines...Anyone watch CBS 60 Minutes?
Replies: 55
Views: 5599

Re: Allegiant Airlines...Anyone watch CBS 60 Minutes?

I no longer trust 60 minutes, I haven't watched them in years and refuse to in the future. After the fiasco of "fake but accurate" memos and all the hubbub around Dan Rather, I do not trust them or anything they say. I also won't watch NBC news magazines (Dateline NBC) after the GMC Pick-Up fiasco w...
by nedsaid
Tue Apr 17, 2018 9:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NAESX - is not really Small Cap?!
Replies: 36
Views: 2154

Re: NAESX - is not really Small Cap?!

I assumed the definitions of large, mid, and small were universal. This thread blew my mind! :shock: Dive into the taxonomy of CRSP indices and you will find it much more surprising than just drawing lines in different places. They have a megacap index, largecap index, midcap index, and smallcap in...
by nedsaid
Mon Apr 16, 2018 10:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Don’t Exclude Emerging Markets
Replies: 30
Views: 3018

Re: Larry Swedroe: Don’t Exclude Emerging Markets

Emerging Markets have long been a favored investment of mine, one of the "Tiger in the Tank" volatile asset classes that I invest in. These include US Small-Cap Value, US Mid/Small-Cap Growth, International Small-Cap, Emerging Markets, and REITs. EM tends to be volatile and has stretches where it bo...
by nedsaid
Sun Apr 15, 2018 11:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Asset allocation for self-employed, independent contractor
Replies: 6
Views: 392

Re: Asset allocation for self-employed, independent contractor

This question is geared primarily to those of you that are independent contractors with no employees and your self-employment is a significant (or main/only) source of your household income. I am interested to hear how you view your business and your human capital in terms of investment risk. Do yo...
by nedsaid
Sun Apr 15, 2018 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bull Market Timing
Replies: 60
Views: 4390

Re: Bull Market Timing

Can someone remind me why we shouldn’t try to time the market? This bull market has been incredible but it doesn’t take a genius to look at historical averages and see we’re near the end here... I’m trying to stop worrying about the inevitable and just ride it out but it’s tough when you’re dollar ...
by nedsaid
Sun Apr 15, 2018 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: First Post: HSAs & American Funds v. Vanguard returns
Replies: 6
Views: 373

Re: First Post: HSAs & American Funds v. Vanguard returns

There are active fund groups that do a really good job. American Funds are one and T Rowe Price is another. If you have your 401k with American Funds, you are in good hands. Keep in mind, that over long periods of time, index funds will outperform the vast majority of active funds and the longer the...
by nedsaid
Sun Apr 15, 2018 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 24 years old - Evaluate my finances
Replies: 11
Views: 1265

Re: 24 years old - Evaluate my finances

My comments boil down to two things. First, put some money aside for a down payment on a home. At some point you will get the itch to move out. If you are in a low cost of living area, you should be able to swing buying a starter home. Condos are okay but are more volatile in price than single famil...
by nedsaid
Sun Apr 15, 2018 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Seeking retirement/investment advice
Replies: 6
Views: 743

Re: Seeking retirement/investment advice

I appreciate you taking the time to read this and offering advice as we are hoping to retire in the next few months and have a lot of decisions to make. We plan to see a local, very well-respected fee-based financial planner next month but thought I'd put this up and learn from a Boglehead too. Her...
by nedsaid
Sun Apr 15, 2018 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Complete Portfolio Redesign - Leaving EJ - Asset Allocation
Replies: 2
Views: 294

Re: Complete Portfolio Redesign - Leaving EJ - Asset Allocation

Hello BH community, I am looking for some help to completely redesign a high six-figure total portfolio (Taxable, Roth, 401k, Cash Balance Plan, HSA) to be more aligned with the Boglehead Philosophy. Nedsaid: Thanks for posting and welcome to Bogleheads. These real life portfolios and real life fin...
by nedsaid
Sat Apr 14, 2018 2:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is an 80/20 Asset Allocation Appropriate?
Replies: 20
Views: 2319

Re: Is an 80/20 Asset Allocation Appropriate?

When I was a young man in my twenties, I was pretty conservative. My IRA was at the bank invested in Certificates of Deposit until a friend went into the brokerage business. I moved my IRA account to him but even then I bought three zero coupon treasury bonds and a 5 year Certificate of Deposit. Did...
by nedsaid
Sat Apr 14, 2018 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is an 80/20 Asset Allocation Appropriate?
Replies: 20
Views: 2319

Re: Is an 80/20 Asset Allocation Appropriate?

At ages 57 and 54, it seems that an 80% Stock/20% Bond is too aggressive, even if you don't plan to touch the money for ten years. I am age 58 and am invested 66% stocks and 34% bonds and cash, I feel like I am invested a bit aggressively for someone my age. Let's look at the Vanguard 2025 fund and...
by nedsaid
Sat Apr 14, 2018 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What hedge strategies do you employ?
Replies: 29
Views: 2411

Re: What hedge strategies do you employ?

I am an inflation hawk as I am old enough to remember the higher inflation of the 1970's and the sudden big rise of gas prices. Pretty much, my portfolio is built to fight inflation. 2/3 of my portfolio is in stocks, both US and International. A portion of my stocks are in Real Estate Investment Tru...
by nedsaid
Sat Apr 14, 2018 11:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help me decide what to do with my 30 year old NML whole life policies
Replies: 15
Views: 1134

Re: Help me decide what to do with my 30 year old NML whole life policies

My inclination would be to keep the policies. My understanding is that you can do a tax free exchange and roll the cash value of the policies into an annuity. Those would be my top two options. Guaranteed rates of 5% are just not available today, that is a very nice return from a fixed income invest...
by nedsaid
Sat Apr 14, 2018 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Don’t Underestimate Buyback Power
Replies: 12
Views: 2331

Re: Larry Swedroe: Don’t Underestimate Buyback Power

Larry makes a good point here. The power of buybacks increasing Earnings Per Share and a shareholder's percentage stake in the company has been known for years though probably underappreciated by many investors. A couple of cautions, announced buybacks are not always followed through and the issuanc...
by nedsaid
Sat Apr 14, 2018 11:10 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Mid-40s in tech - how to pass off as acceptably young
Replies: 111
Views: 9752

Re: Mid-40s in tech - how to pass off as acceptably young

I’m in the same boat as you are and have realized that the ONLY solution to this problem is strict anti age discrimination legislation. Let me know if you want to start a crowdfunding page. The OP is over 40 and thus is covered by age discrimination legislation already. Since he's in California, th...
by nedsaid
Sat Apr 14, 2018 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is an 80/20 Asset Allocation Appropriate?
Replies: 20
Views: 2319

Re: Is an 80/20 Asset Allocation Appropriate?

On allocation, I think something that's missing is how much of your retirement costs will be covered by SS and a pension if any. This is an important point, the more of your living expenses that are covered by guaranteed income streams like Social Security and Pensions, the more aggressive you can ...
by nedsaid
Fri Apr 13, 2018 11:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is an 80/20 Asset Allocation Appropriate?
Replies: 20
Views: 2319

Re: Is an 80/20 Asset Allocation Appropriate?

Well, REITs are stocks and they should be counted as part of your stock allocation. When REIT funds started to come available, I was an early adopter. I also have owned a big Timber REIT for years and years. So I have over the years been pretty enthusiastic about them. When interest rates got to be ...
by nedsaid
Fri Apr 13, 2018 11:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard vs Independent Certified Financial Planner
Replies: 15
Views: 1320

Re: Vanguard vs Independent Certified Financial Planner

Thanks Longleaf. That was my sense about Vanguard, and in general I agree with your comment about bogleheads.org serving as a crowdsourced CFP. With a recent change in our financial circumstances (recent inheritance, greater proportion of savings in taxable accounts) I feel like it could be helpful...
by nedsaid
Fri Apr 13, 2018 10:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is an 80/20 Asset Allocation Appropriate?
Replies: 20
Views: 2319

Re: Is an 80/20 Asset Allocation Appropriate?

At ages 57 and 54, it seems that an 80% Stock/20% Bond is too aggressive, even if you don't plan to touch the money for ten years. I am age 58 and am invested 66% stocks and 34% bonds and cash, I feel like I am invested a bit aggressively for someone my age. Let's look at the Vanguard 2025 fund and ...
by nedsaid
Fri Apr 13, 2018 10:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Introduction to Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS)
Replies: 53
Views: 4635

Re: Introduction to Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS)

Finally, I never intended the presentation to end up here. I agreed to let Siamond post it here after the fact. I can tell you unequivocally that our goal was to educate people, not offend them. Would I do another Metro-Boston presentation? Yes. Would I allow it to be posted here? Absolutely not. S...
by nedsaid
Fri Apr 13, 2018 10:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar: "3 of Our Favorite Target Date Series"
Replies: 1
Views: 657

Re: Morningstar: "3 of Our Favorite Target Date Series"

I find myself becoming more and more of a fan of Target Date and Target Risk type of funds. Target Date funds are meant as retirement investments that are aggressive when you are young and get more conservative as you approach retirement. Target Risk funds keep you at a constant risk level: conserva...
by nedsaid
Fri Apr 13, 2018 8:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Introduction to Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS)
Replies: 53
Views: 4635

Re: Introduction to Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS)

On the Perspective 2 slide we get the following observation which is stated as a known fact, but rejected by many financial experts. Investors with large stock allocations do not need to buy TIPS because stocks are a good inflation hedge. We often hear this opinion - Is it true? The truth is stocks...
by nedsaid
Thu Apr 12, 2018 11:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unimpressive category averages of managed futures, multialternative, market neutral, etc.
Replies: 82
Views: 5008

Re: Unimpressive category averages of managed futures, multialternative, market neutral, etc.

john4546 wrote:
Thu Apr 12, 2018 10:58 am
Someone send this memo to Swedroe.
I will make a bold prediction, that is that Larry has read this and a personal message is on its way to Nisiprius.
by nedsaid
Thu Apr 12, 2018 11:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle on stock turbulence: ‘never seen a market this volatile to this extent in my career’
Replies: 88
Views: 12278

Re: Bogle on stock turbulence: ‘never seen a market this volatile to this extent in my career’

Hi nedsaid, I have a question. Have you checked your private messages in the last few days? :wink: BobK Hi Bob, You got a detailed personal message as an answer. I really appreciate your nice and thoughtful message. The personal contact and exchange of ideas is the best of Bogleheads. Best regards,...
by nedsaid
Thu Apr 12, 2018 7:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2000-09 worst decade for large cap stocks in 109 years
Replies: 45
Views: 3867

Re: 2000-09 worst decade for large cap stocks in 109 years

Nedsaid, First, for investors really worried about inflation, there now exist inflation-indexed bonds (TIPS) and inflation-indexed cash investments (I-Bonds). Nedsaid: Yes, I own TIPs and I am a big believer in them. I also own I-Bonds as well. Second, I think it's important to deconstruct an inves...
by nedsaid
Tue Apr 10, 2018 9:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle on stock turbulence: ‘never seen a market this volatile to this extent in my career’
Replies: 88
Views: 12278

Re: Bogle on stock turbulence: ‘never seen a market this volatile to this extent in my career’

When I looked back at Quarterly GDP growth rates after the Reagan Tax Cuts, I was pretty astonished at what I saw. It took about a year but the economy roared strongly as a result. The Fed lowered rates a lot after the summer of 1981 after causing the recession and that created the boom. The tax cu...
by nedsaid
Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle on stock turbulence: ‘never seen a market this volatile to this extent in my career’
Replies: 88
Views: 12278

Re: Bogle on stock turbulence: ‘never seen a market this volatile to this extent in my career’

I want to make a few public comments about this discussion with Bobcat2 and my view of economists in general. First of all, my economics courses were among my favorites in college. I took a year of economics classes in college on my way to a Bachelors' Degree in Business Administration. So while I h...
by nedsaid
Tue Apr 10, 2018 7:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle on stock turbulence: ‘never seen a market this volatile to this extent in my career’
Replies: 88
Views: 12278

Re: Bogle on stock turbulence: ‘never seen a market this volatile to this extent in my career’

Very comprehensive replies there by nedsaid! I did notice the lack of word "deficit" when the tax cut benefits were mentioned. How does one talk tax cut without ever thinking about budget deficit? If I were a cynic, I would say deficit only matters when the "other party" is in power. But then that ...