Search found 9116 matches

by nedsaid
Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New reduced rate on REIT Dividends
Replies: 15
Views: 2079

Re: New reduced rate on REIT Dividends

All - I have not seen any posts on this matter, so I apologize in advance if it has been covered. My understanding is that under the new tax bill, there is a 20% haircut on ordinary REIT dividends. So if you receive $100 in REIT ordinary dividends, only $80 is subject to tax; so effectively providi...
by nedsaid
Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Case for Higher Int'l Allocation? Larry Swedroe article on home bias
Replies: 69
Views: 4000

Re: A Case for Higher Int'l Allocation? Larry Swedroe article on home bias

There are actually some logical reasons for having a home country tilt, not the least of which is the fact that your home country's inflation, which impacts your spending power, also has a much greater impact on domestic stock market returns than international returns. Tyler at Portfolio Charts had...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 11, 2018 8:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 5574
Views: 1260645

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I am a somewhat of a newer investor (7 years) but not a young investor (mid-60's and retired and taking 3.4% for living expenses). I did put money into the Total Stock Market Index on Friday. I am currently running a 60/40 very simple portfolio (60% Total Stock Market Index and 40% Total Bond Marke...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 11, 2018 7:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Soul searching on interest rates
Replies: 15
Views: 1273

Re: Soul searching on interest rates

I think you're mixing two very different concerns: The finances of the state of New Jersey and those of the US Government. The US government issues borrows in its own currency. If it borrows and spends $100, that money will make it through the economy and eventually ends up in the hands of someone ...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 11, 2018 6:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are REITs essentially taboo for years now with rising rates?
Replies: 55
Views: 5150

Re: Are REITs essentially taboo for years now with rising rates?

I am keeping my REITs though I have no plans to purchase more. A while back, I sold about 20% of my REITs and elected to keep the rest. Historically, these yield 6% to 8% and with low interest rates and the income investors piling in, these rates got to be down to about 3%. I just checked the invest...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 11, 2018 5:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best place to exchange dollars to euros?
Replies: 18
Views: 716

Re: Best place to exchange dollars to euros?

I take foreign cash with me when I travel. I use AAA to buy my foreign currency. Using bank ATM's oversees are also a good deal but not at the airport. Don't use Travelex or American Express at the airport, you won't get a good rate there.
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 11, 2018 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity halts investor purchases of three VIX-focused ETFs
Replies: 12
Views: 1283

Re: Fidelity halts investor purchases of three VIX-focused ETFs

We had at least one major inverse volatility ETN (Credit Suisse) go bust and another ETF hung on by the skin of it's teeth. So, it's not surprising at all that brokers would curtail access to some of the riskier products to retail investors. It is surprising to me. I mistakenly thought brokers prov...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 11, 2018 5:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 5574
Views: 1260645

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

So they (TIAA) clearly think that the worst of the declines are over. We'll see if they're right. +1 Thanks for posting willthrill81, great perspective on the market activity........ Time to get my "buying shoes" on :moneybag I would caution that stocks are cheaper and not necessarily cheap. These ...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 11, 2018 5:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 5574
Views: 1260645

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

How do you know the market is overvalued today? 1) In late January, people were posting pics of their 401k statements on Facebook, bragging about how rich they were getting and were virtually guaranteed of an early retirement. 2) And I know a few friends and family that are actually borrowing money...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 11, 2018 5:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 5574
Views: 1260645

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

This from Michael Batnick at the Irrelevant Investor. I resemble this remark. -1% Mock the permabears -2% Meh -3% Yawn -4% Off the highs -5% Pullback -6% Healthy correction -7% Buying opportunity -8% Stay the course -9% This too shall pass -10% Correction territory -11% I’m a long-term investor -12...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 11, 2018 5:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 5574
Views: 1260645

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Cramer said that excessive XIV trading (the volatility index symbol, an ETF of some sort I guess) causes the wild swings in the total market. Is this true? Is it a derivative of some sort? How would trading just this one thing cause volatility in the whole stock market? It sounds like the tail wagg...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 11, 2018 5:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe's portfolio: does the fact that SC are expensive cause a problem?
Replies: 21
Views: 1735

Re: Larry Swedroe's portfolio: does the fact that SC are expensive cause a problem?

Although I use Price to Earnings as my primary market barometer, there are a few things you have to take into consideration. First of all, you have to know which set of ratios you are looking at. I primarily look at forward P/E's based upon future estimated earnings. The market looks forward and so ...
by nedsaid
Sat Feb 10, 2018 7:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Rising Rates Increase Worries
Replies: 86
Views: 12907

Re: Larry Swedroe: Rising Rates Increase Worries

I never thought I would be posting on a forum defending some of the policies of the Roosevelt Administration. Certainly, I am on the other side of the aisle but I will acknowledge the good things that they did. The thing is, I knew a lot of people with memories of the Great Depression and WWII inclu...
by nedsaid
Sat Feb 10, 2018 6:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: Seeing Valuations Clearly
Replies: 1
Views: 604

Re: Swedroe: Seeing Valuations Clearly

This is a good article by Larry, he has reminded us of the relationship between valuations and future expected returns. He also has reminded us of the changes in Generally Accepted Accounting Principles which has made the definition of earnings more conservative. In other words, the accountants have...
by nedsaid
Sat Feb 10, 2018 5:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Rising Rates Increase Worries
Replies: 86
Views: 12907

Re: Larry Swedroe: Rising Rates Increase Worries

There absolutely is doubt that WWII ended the Great Depression . Not only is there doubt, there are volumes of research which assert the opposite. If war did increase real economic output, why wait around for a war? We could reinstitute the draft, build new weapons factories and ship yards, and bom...
by nedsaid
Sat Feb 10, 2018 5:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 4 Horsemen Of Your Portfolio
Replies: 107
Views: 10133

Re: Larry Swedroe: 4 Horsemen Of Your Portfolio

I think what will happen, out of necessity, is the comeback of the extended family. Who would be in this extended family? Not sure there are many cases where anyone other than the children would take on this care. If we're talking about the children, then the first question is "are there children?"...
by nedsaid
Sat Feb 10, 2018 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 4 Horsemen Of Your Portfolio
Replies: 107
Views: 10133

Re: Larry Swedroe: 4 Horsemen Of Your Portfolio

My take on the article, is that Larry is pretty much right and that we need to be very nice to our family members. You might need them someday. The thing is, I don't think we have a retirement crisis, I believe Western Countries are maintaining too many households. The idea that we all need to reti...
by nedsaid
Sat Feb 10, 2018 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Rising Rates Increase Worries
Replies: 86
Views: 12907

Re: Larry Swedroe: Rising Rates Increase Worries

The thing is, of course consumers suffered from war time rationing. We were marshalling resources for the war effort. In a guns vs. butter battle for priorities, guns won. This should hardly be surprising. Again, as much as I like Reason Magazine, there was just no political will for the type of pol...
by nedsaid
Sat Feb 10, 2018 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Rising Rates Increase Worries
Replies: 86
Views: 12907

Re: Larry Swedroe: Rising Rates Increase Worries

I'd just like to point out that some of what is being presented in this post as fact is in actuality conjecture that is not widely accepted by economists. Specifically: WWII being good for the global economy (broken window fallacy); Public deficit equals private surplus (ignores capital surplus); e...
by nedsaid
Fri Feb 09, 2018 11:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The stock market is officially in a correction... here's what usually happens next"
Replies: 83
Views: 13093

Re: "The stock market is officially in a correction... here's what usually happens next"

"Stay the course" is not the same as "Buy and hold." Corrections and bear markets can often be an opportunity to rebalance, sell an unwanted fund, tax-loss harvest or move to another company. Best wishes. Taylor Hi Taylor, I want to thank you again for the guidance I received from you, Mel, and Bob...
by nedsaid
Thu Feb 08, 2018 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 5574
Views: 1260645

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Haven't you been paying attention in the past lew years? Valuations are outdated. Bogleheads know that valuations don't matter, ever. At least that's the impression I have been getting from reading Bogleheads.com in the last few years. No, Bogleheads know that valuations aren't actionable. I hope y...
by nedsaid
Thu Feb 08, 2018 8:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 4 Horsemen Of Your Portfolio
Replies: 107
Views: 10133

Re: Larry Swedroe: 4 Horsemen Of Your Portfolio

I think what will happen, out of necessity, is the comeback of the extended family. Who would be in this extended family? Not sure there are many cases where anyone other than the children would take on this care. If we're talking about the children, then the first question is "are there children?"...
by nedsaid
Wed Feb 07, 2018 11:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 4 Horsemen Of Your Portfolio
Replies: 107
Views: 10133

Re: Larry Swedroe: 4 Horsemen Of Your Portfolio

In the article, Larry raises four concerns that investors need to be thinking about. He calls these the Four Horsemen and they are historically high equity valuations, historically low bond yields, increasing longevity, and the risks of long term care. Larry also discusses that the Medicare trust fu...
by nedsaid
Wed Feb 07, 2018 11:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 4 Horsemen Of Your Portfolio
Replies: 107
Views: 10133

Re: Larry Swedroe: 4 Horsemen Of Your Portfolio

The Four Horsemen. Hmmm. Where have I heard of this before? Of course, we draw inspiration from the four Horsemen of the Apocalypse which is an echo of the Four Horses and the Four Chariots of the Old Testament Book of Zechariah. And of course we think of the Four Horsemen of Notre Dame, from a famo...
by nedsaid
Tue Feb 06, 2018 10:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1246
Views: 185774

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

It looks like QSPIX acted like bonds, which is okay. If I was a QSPIX investor, I would expect higher than the 2-3% return that you will get out of bonds over the next decade. If you do all the fancy stuff and still have the return of bonds, you may as well just be in bonds. If I owned this fund, I...
by nedsaid
Tue Feb 06, 2018 10:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1246
Views: 185774

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

It looks like QSPIX acted like bonds, which is okay. If I was a QSPIX investor, I would expect higher than the 2-3% return that you will get out of bonds over the next decade. If you do all the fancy stuff and still have the return of bonds, you may as well just be in bonds. If I owned this fund, I...
by nedsaid
Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1246
Views: 185774

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

So it looks like QSPIX acted pretty much like bonds during this period of market turbulence. Probably some people were fantasizing that this fund would shoot straight up. My guess is that it is doing about what it is designed to do. The question is, is this a better diversifier than plain old bonds...
by nedsaid
Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1246
Views: 185774

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

So it looks like QSPIX acted pretty much like bonds during this period of market turbulence. Probably some people were fantasizing that this fund would shoot straight up. My guess is that it is doing about what it is designed to do. The question is, is this a better diversifier than plain old bonds...
by nedsaid
Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?
Replies: 309
Views: 30287

Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Actually, I kind of miss the bull market. Hopefully this dip is temporary.
by nedsaid
Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1246
Views: 185774

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

So it looks like QSPIX acted pretty much like bonds during this period of market turbulence. Probably some people were fantasizing that this fund would shoot straight up. My guess is that it is doing about what it is designed to do. The question is, is this a better diversifier than plain old bonds?...
by nedsaid
Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hitting The Sell Button
Replies: 226
Views: 27148

Re: Hitting The Sell Button

I just checked my asset allocation and it is exactly the same. Gee whiz, how can that be? My guess is that bonds have fallen a little bit too. It just doesn't make sense. Hi nedsaid...Last month, when you posted the thread, I remember writing to you about it. What you seemed to be saying [what I in...
by nedsaid
Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 5574
Views: 1260645

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Fourth, valuations matter and matter a lot. I was getting a bit uneasy at Forward P/E ratios in the market getting to almost 22. Lots of optimism there. We were getting to where the market was pricing in a perfect investing environment, which almost never exists in the real world. Somebody at a hed...
by nedsaid
Mon Feb 05, 2018 9:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RBD alert [Really Bad Day]
Replies: 86
Views: 9994

Re: RBD alert [Really Bad Day]

About the only good thing about this sudden downdraft in the stock market is that I won't have to worry about rebalancing for a while. My decision to gently rebalance from stocks to bonds as the market kept hitting new highs looks pretty good now. I started this process in July 2013 and continued u...
by nedsaid
Mon Feb 05, 2018 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong
Replies: 125
Views: 10403

Re: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong

Forward P/E's of the US Total Stock Market Index, at least as measured by the Fidelity product are about 20. They had crept up to almost 22. That seems more reasonable valuations. Isn't forward P/E all garbage and guesses? Well, it is what we have to work with. Quite often, earnings forecasts are o...
by nedsaid
Mon Feb 05, 2018 9:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1246
Views: 185774

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

How has this fund been performing during the recent downdraft? You would expect this environment would be where these kind of funds would really shine. At least today on February 5, 2018, the fund fell 0.56% when the general stock market was down about 4%. Bonds were up today.
by nedsaid
Mon Feb 05, 2018 9:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong
Replies: 125
Views: 10403

Re: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong

Forward P/E's of the US Total Stock Market Index, at least as measured by the Fidelity product are about 20. They had crept up to almost 22. That seems more reasonable valuations.
by nedsaid
Mon Feb 05, 2018 9:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 5574
Views: 1260645

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

First, markets do awfully weird things for no apparent reason. I see absolutely no logic in the market dropping over 600 points on Friday and over 1,100 points the next Monday. Really, what has changed in the last couple of weeks? Not much. What changed was that a long-standing correlation structur...
by nedsaid
Mon Feb 05, 2018 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hitting The Sell Button
Replies: 226
Views: 27148

Re: Hitting The Sell Button

What I will say is that I am glad that I have been rebalancing my portfolio since July 2013. I hated selling stock but I am glad that I did. My asset allocation was 66% stocks and 34% bonds and cash just before we saw this dramatic and recent downdraft. I just checked my asset allocation and it is e...
by nedsaid
Mon Feb 05, 2018 8:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong
Replies: 125
Views: 10403

Cape Fear: Do you feel vindicated?

Those of you who have been watching the CAPE or PE10 and warning us about the market being overvalued, do you feel some vindication right now?
by nedsaid
Mon Feb 05, 2018 8:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RBD alert [Really Bad Day]
Replies: 86
Views: 9994

Re: RBD alert [Really Bad Day]

About the only good thing about this sudden downdraft in the stock market is that I won't have to worry about rebalancing for a while. My decision to gently rebalance from stocks to bonds as the market kept hitting new highs looks pretty good now. I started this process in July 2013 and continued un...
by nedsaid
Mon Feb 05, 2018 8:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 5574
Views: 1260645

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Today is a reminder of several things. First, markets do awfully weird things for no apparent reason. I see absolutely no logic in the market dropping over 600 points on Friday and over 1,100 points the next Monday. Really, what has changed in the last couple of weeks? Not much. Second, you never kn...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 04, 2018 5:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Economist - “Factor investing” gains popularity
Replies: 22
Views: 2446

Re: Economist - “Factor investing” gains popularity

There is no doubt that factor investing is gaining in popularity. This may not be such a good thing for factor investing returns going forward. I found it interesting that Cliff Asness, who is knowledgeable, brilliant, and honest, wrote that the market factor is his favorite factor. Other factors m...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 04, 2018 5:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Approaching Retirement/Portfolio Guidance/Asset Allocation/General Guidance
Replies: 1
Views: 238

Re: Approaching Retirement/Portfolio Guidance/Asset Allocation/General Guidance

Wow. You are pretty aggressively invested for near retirees. I gulped when I saw that you had 93% in stocks. Last week's market volatility should have given you a bit of heartburn, the DOW was down over 600 points on Friday. I am age 58 and have 66% in stocks and think I am hanging way out there. Wh...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 04, 2018 5:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the relationship between interest rates, bonds, stocks, inflation, growth of the economy, etc.?
Replies: 4
Views: 432

Re: What is the relationship between interest rates, bonds, stocks, inflation, growth of the economy, etc.?

Well, essentially you are asking for a crash course in the markets and the economy. Hard to do in a single thread or a post. Ray Dalio has a pretty good video on YouTube. This should answer some of your questions.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHe0bXAIuk0
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 04, 2018 4:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSM believers, defend thyself! (In a good natured, friendly debate.)
Replies: 59
Views: 6377

Re: TSM believers, defend thyself! (In a good natured, friendly debate.)

The US Total Stock Market Index is my biggest holding and it has been a great investment. This discussion reminds me of the "tastes great" vs. "less filling" beer commercials that were run years ago. Or a Yankees fans vs. Red Sox fans type of thing. My take is that those who invest with the Taylor L...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 04, 2018 4:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Blood in the water- buying?
Replies: 117
Views: 15884

Re: Blood in the water- buying?

So this is the general premise, that when there is blood in the water you buy your investments. How many have done this in the last three trading days? How many were actually sitting on enough cash to do so? Especially considering that so many here are not advocates of holding large cash positions ...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 04, 2018 4:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When diversification doesn’t work
Replies: 33
Views: 2589

Re: When diversification doesn’t work

During 2008-2009 someone in Bogleheads posted, I should take the time to find the posting, that all that diversification means is that in a crisis you can watch all your investments plummeting at different speeds. If there was a Boglehead's Hall of Fame for best posts, this quote should be in it. W...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 04, 2018 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When diversification doesn’t work
Replies: 33
Views: 2589

Re: When diversification doesn’t work

During 2008-2009 someone in Bogleheads posted, I should take the time to find the posting, that all that diversification means is that in a crisis you can watch all your investments plummeting at different speeds. If there was a Boglehead's Hall of Fame for best posts, this quote should be in it. W...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 04, 2018 1:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Rising Rates Increase Worries
Replies: 86
Views: 12907

Re: Larry Swedroe: Rising Rates Increase Worries

What is not conjecture is that the Federal Reserve Bank has to return its profits to the US Treasury. So to the extent that the Fed buys US Treasury Debt, the US Government is essentially making an interest free loan to itself. I have been very dissatisfied with the standard explanations for a coup...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 04, 2018 2:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alan Greenspan says there are bubbles in both stocks and bonds
Replies: 87
Views: 7901

Re: Alan Greenspan says there are bubbles in both stocks and bonds

Clearly, there was a lot of money sloshing around in the aftermath of the 2008-2009 financial crisis, bear market, and Great Recession. The monetary spigots were turned on full blast to avoid a second Great Depression. It shouldn't be surprising that the values of many asset classes have been pushed...