Search found 10276 matches

by nedsaid
Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Active Isn’t All Bad
Replies: 7
Views: 911

Re: Larry Swedroe: Active Isn’t All Bad

The interesting part of the recent study is where the investigator created pairs of active and passive funds with similar goals and similar expense ratios. I haven't read the article yet, but I'm going to be curious to see where they found an active fund and a passive fund with similar expense rati...
by nedsaid
Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are bonds the Maginot Line of Modern Investing?
Replies: 41
Views: 3266

Re: Are bonds the Maginot Line of Modern Investing?

I do agree that inflation is something to worry about. It's the one thing I'm not fully prepared for, and the only thing I still somewhat worry about. I think a short-term bond fund, or a short-term CD ladder offers some protection again inflation, correct? We do buy $10,000 of i-bonds every year. ...
by nedsaid
Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7401
Views: 1553023

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

letsgobobby wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:25 am
And this was the thread I was trying to link.

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=253655
Yes, that thread helps make the point about market breadth.
by nedsaid
Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Active Isn’t All Bad
Replies: 7
Views: 911

Re: Larry Swedroe: Active Isn’t All Bad

https://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-active-isnt-all-bad?nopaging=1 Larry starts out the article with a John Bogle quote: “Stock picking pros aren’t stupid. They’re just expensive.” The article begins with a review of recent publications from Fama French and Vanguard showing t...
by nedsaid
Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7401
Views: 1553023

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Nedsaid, yes I believe a poster has noted this before. He was told it was always this way, so not too worry. https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=260753 https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=255695 A "shrinking" US Stock Market is yet another reason to diversify Int...
by nedsaid
Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are bonds the Maginot Line of Modern Investing?
Replies: 41
Views: 3266

Re: Are bonds the Maginot Line of Modern Investing?

Valuethinker, my understanding was that the French loss in World War II had much to do with tactics. My understanding is that the French tanks were actually better than the German ones but that the Germans massed their tanks in Armored Divisions whereas the French spread the tanks out among the infa...
by nedsaid
Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7401
Views: 1553023

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I see that the Chinese Stock Market has been taking a big hit and according to the financial press, this is affecting the US Market. Another worry is rising Italian bond yields. Always something to worry about. It's a good thing that markets climb a wall of worry. :wink: Yep, the markets have not e...
by nedsaid
Fri Oct 19, 2018 9:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are bonds the Maginot Line of Modern Investing?
Replies: 41
Views: 3266

Re: Are bonds the Maginot Line of Modern Investing?

Good read from Matt Topley about some comments by Jeremy Schwartz https://matttopley.com/topleys-top-ten-october-19-2018/. It's a truism that generals fight the last war and that investors prepare for the last down turn. I think we underestimate the chance of a 1970s type scenario where both bonds ...
by nedsaid
Fri Oct 19, 2018 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7401
Views: 1553023

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I see that the Chinese Stock Market has been taking a big hit and according to the financial press, this is affecting the US Market. Another worry is rising Italian bond yields. Always something to worry about. It's a good thing that markets climb a wall of worry. :wink: Yep, the markets have not e...
by nedsaid
Thu Oct 18, 2018 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7401
Views: 1553023

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I see that the Chinese Stock Market has been taking a big hit and according to the financial press, this is affecting the US Market. Another worry is rising Italian bond yields. Always something to worry about.
by nedsaid
Thu Oct 18, 2018 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear
Replies: 74
Views: 9509

Re: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear

It shouldn't be hard to see what I am trying to do here, be conciliatory and to encourage people to agree to disagree. The moderators do a great job but it is up to forum members to police themselves as much as possible. It is fun when investment authors post here, it adds to the forum. Larry is cer...
by nedsaid
Thu Oct 18, 2018 1:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear
Replies: 74
Views: 9509

Re: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear

I guess it is time for my last comment on this topic. Larry has certainly helped a lot of people with his unselfishness in talking to a lot of Bogleheads and answering their questions. The exchange of information has been good too. But Larry, and ultimately his firm, have benefitted from feedback fr...
by nedsaid
Wed Oct 17, 2018 7:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear
Replies: 74
Views: 9509

Re: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear

Taylor Thanks, it wasn't diredt but it was about diversification which you did call the something of scoundrels, implying it. Again thanks for the apology What amazes me still is that my motives are questioned when I've tireless answered thousands of questions and PMs and gotten so many thank yous ...
by nedsaid
Wed Oct 17, 2018 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear
Replies: 74
Views: 9509

Re: Scoundrel?

So I decided it was not worth spending time having to answer over and over again the same questions while still being accused of all kinds of things, including most recently by all people that gentleman Taylor Larimore of being a scoundrel. Larry: I cannot recall ever accusing you of being a "scoun...
by nedsaid
Wed Oct 17, 2018 2:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"
Replies: 203
Views: 10610

Re: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"

... If Vanguard had a Mars Index Fund, I would probably invest in that too... Under some of the premises that get talked about on here, many would justify that as being additional "diversification", and on the grounds of it being the universe of investable products portfolio you should hold it at m...
by nedsaid
Wed Oct 17, 2018 2:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear
Replies: 74
Views: 9509

Re: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear

My last comment, as I have pointed out investors need to understand that prospectuses are written by lawyers to avoid lawsuits so statements are always the broadest and most conservative that they can be and very often do not reflect the reality. This is a good example If you knew what you were tal...
by nedsaid
Wed Oct 17, 2018 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"
Replies: 203
Views: 10610

Re: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"

JoMoney, you should invest your money in a logical fashion and not because of a form of political correctness. Being a US only investor doesn't make you xenophobic. It is simply a difference of opinion. If Mr. Bogle wants to be a US only investor and has his logical reasons for doing so, more power ...
by nedsaid
Wed Oct 17, 2018 10:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"
Replies: 203
Views: 10610

Re: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"

The "they're riskier" argument works for Russian stock valuations and other emerging markets. I don't see that argument working for the UK, France, Germany or any other developed nation. Bogle always talks about how US multinationals already give you US exposure. Well, don't you get US exposure fro...
by nedsaid
Wed Oct 17, 2018 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 321
Views: 33741

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

AnalogKid22 wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 9:32 am
watchnerd wrote:
Tue Oct 16, 2018 11:10 pm
So bummed at these gains
Almost half of which have been erased today.
Darn it, this thread has jinxed the market! :wink:
by nedsaid
Wed Oct 17, 2018 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear
Replies: 74
Views: 9509

Re: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear

Swedroe’s article disingenuously offers that “there is an old saying” that “there is a time for every activity...” etc. (pre-lapsarians may recall the literate version of Ecclesiastes 3.1,”To everything there is a season; and a time to every purpose under heaven.”) This is Swedroe stealth quoting f...
by nedsaid
Tue Oct 16, 2018 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear
Replies: 74
Views: 9509

Re: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear

I don’t know of any specific “test”. All those strategies have been present for a very long time. They’ve been done by banks and hedge funds. Just now open to the public. Certainly always worry that investable by public is a bad sign. It's certainly not a good sign. Once a strategy is released to t...
by nedsaid
Mon Oct 15, 2018 12:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Hedge Fund’s & Undervalued Stocks
Replies: 1
Views: 394

Re: Larry Swedroe: Hedge Fund’s & Undervalued Stocks

One reason I am not concerned that markets will become less efficient with the rise of indexing is that there is lots of money still out there in hedge funds. Reason two would be the rise of factor investing even with more passive techniques. Reason three is that active management in retail funds wi...
by nedsaid
Mon Oct 15, 2018 12:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 2018 Good For Gurus
Replies: 7
Views: 1082

Re: Larry Swedroe: 2018 Good For Gurus

If the gurus have a positive score in 2018, it will be the first time in 9 years. Not good odds.
by nedsaid
Mon Oct 15, 2018 12:19 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please help with asset allocation - 63 yr old
Replies: 12
Views: 1396

Re: Please help with asset allocation - 63 yr old

What I would do is look at the asset allocation models for the Target 2020 Funds. Take a look and see what Vanguard, Fidelity, and T. Rowe Price are doing. You will get the best thinking of what the mutual fund industry thinks is appropriate for someone your age. Vanguard is at 53.52% stocks and 46....
by nedsaid
Sun Oct 14, 2018 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Invest in target date fund or do myself? Poor return Schwab Private Client
Replies: 23
Views: 2331

Re: Invest in target date fund or do myself? Poor return Schwab Private Client

Thanks everyone for input. Replies to questions: $550K is in IRA $450 in taxable Total now is 38% US Stock; 31% intl; 5 core bond; 14 in muni bond Thomas Partners $160 K (owned by Schwab)has done fine but the rest managed by Private Client not good So sounds like my option is to move IRA into a VTI...
by nedsaid
Sun Oct 14, 2018 8:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it better to have fewer investment choices?
Replies: 23
Views: 1718

Re: Is it better to have fewer investment choices?

I am rolling over a Variable Annuity to Fidelity. I will use Taylor's 3 fund portfolio: US Total Stock Market Index, an International Stock Index, and a US Bond Index. The simple portfolios work just fine.
by nedsaid
Sun Oct 14, 2018 8:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Invest in target date fund or do myself? Poor return Schwab Private Client
Replies: 23
Views: 2331

Re: Invest in target date fund or do myself? Poor return Schwab Private Client

I am new member. Low 60's age, should be mod aggressive investor. Have one million to invest and don't need money for at least 10,to 15 years. Schwab Private Client for 4 years and lagged against all benchmarks. Am now down -4.3% YTD w 67% stock. Husband in Vanguard 2020 target fund only 1%. No one...
by nedsaid
Sun Oct 14, 2018 7:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does international really buy you diversification?
Replies: 43
Views: 4464

Re: Does international really buy you diversification?

I see this as a recurring theme over tye past 20years or so - a fall in us stocks leads to a fall in European stocks the next day.if these walk so much hand under hand, are we really getting any diversification by investubg in international stocks? International bonds, on the other hand, might be a...
by nedsaid
Sun Oct 14, 2018 6:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sears, a 125 year old company is now a penny stock.
Replies: 123
Views: 14440

Re: Sears, a 125 year old company is now a penny stock.

Keep this in mind whenever anybody starts saying that a portfolio of a few good blue-chip stocks are not risky, if they are stocks in truly great companies, household names, that "aren't going to go away." Because "everybody will always need" refrigerators, sensible clothing, and durable tools. Wel...
by nedsaid
Sat Oct 13, 2018 11:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Why Emerging Markets Matter
Replies: 82
Views: 6330

Re: Larry Swedroe: Why Emerging Markets Matter

Lower correlations with US equities and greater expected returns are why I personally am overweight EM relative to IDM in my IPS. If this actually benefits me in the long run is yet to be seen. This is why I made the comment that Emerging Markets are the new REITs. I remember seeing data back in 20...
by nedsaid
Sat Oct 13, 2018 11:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7401
Views: 1553023

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Why are the long term interest rates moving up? Fed only controls short term rates. So for long term rates to go up that means lot of long term bond selling going on, meaning prices dropping and yields going up. If money is moving out of long term bonds it's definitely not going into stocks since s...
by nedsaid
Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7401
Views: 1553023

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

The classic too much money chasing too few goods and services argument. An interesting data point related to the too much money question. At last week's BH conference, Gus Sauter gave a presentation on the Endowment model and Private Equity. (slides and video are on the forum somewhere.) A key take...
by nedsaid
Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7401
Views: 1553023

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Why are the long term interest rates moving up? Fed only controls short term rates. So for long term rates to go up that means lot of long term bond selling going on, meaning prices dropping and yields going up. If money is moving out of long term bonds it's definitely not going into stocks since s...
by nedsaid
Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7401
Views: 1553023

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I think what is happening is that interest rates are moving, so far in October the yield on the 10 year treasury has moved up from 3.09% to 3.22%. Pretty good move in just 10 days! The 30 year US Treasury has moved from a yield of 3.24% to 3.39%. That is a fairly big move in a few days. This is the...
by nedsaid
Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7401
Views: 1553023

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I think what is happening is that interest rates are moving, so far in October the yield on the 10 year treasury has moved up from 3.09% to 3.22%. Pretty good move in just 10 days! The 30 year US Treasury has moved from a yield of 3.24% to 3.39%. That is a fairly big move in a few days. No one know...
by nedsaid
Thu Oct 11, 2018 1:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7401
Views: 1553023

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I think what is happening is that interest rates are moving, so far in October the yield on the 10 year treasury has moved up from 3.09% to 3.22%. Pretty good move in just 10 days! The 30 year US Treasury has moved from a yield of 3.24% to 3.39%. That is a fairly big move in a few days. No one know...
by nedsaid
Thu Oct 11, 2018 1:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7401
Views: 1553023

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I think what is happening is that interest rates are moving, so far in October the yield on the 10 year treasury has moved up from 3.09% to 3.22%. Pretty good move in just 10 days! The 30 year US Treasury has moved from a yield of 3.24% to 3.39%. That is a fairly big move in a few days. No one know...
by nedsaid
Thu Oct 11, 2018 1:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Why Emerging Markets Matter
Replies: 82
Views: 6330

Re: Larry Swedroe: Why Emerging Markets Matter

Lower correlations with US equities and greater expected returns are why I personally am overweight EM relative to IDM in my IPS. If this actually benefits me in the long run is yet to be seen. This is why I made the comment that Emerging Markets are the new REITs. I remember seeing data back in 20...
by nedsaid
Wed Oct 10, 2018 8:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7401
Views: 1553023

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Wow. Dow 30 Index is now down 831 points today. The market isn't loving the higher interest rates. Something is going on here, are the hedge funds doing something we don't know about? It doesn't make any sense to me but markets sometimes do stuff like this. Pretty irrational. Why do folks assume th...
by nedsaid
Wed Oct 10, 2018 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 321
Views: 33741

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Just out of curiosity, I decided to check the market averages when this thread started on August 27, 2018. I found this below at Zacks Equity Research. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) advanced 0.5%, to close at 25,790.35. The S&P 500 gained 0.6% to close at 2,874.69. The Nasdaq Composite Inde...
by nedsaid
Wed Oct 10, 2018 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 RBD?
Replies: 28
Views: 2063

Re: S&P 500 RBD?

FIREchief wrote:
Wed Oct 10, 2018 2:28 pm
Well it is October.... :twisted:
Reminds me of the famous Mark Twain quote:
OCTOBER: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks in. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February.
by nedsaid
Wed Oct 10, 2018 3:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7401
Views: 1553023

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Wow. Dow 30 Index is now down 831 points today. The market isn't loving the higher interest rates. Something is going on here, are the hedge funds doing something we don't know about? It doesn't make any sense to me but markets sometimes do stuff like this. Pretty irrational.
by nedsaid
Wed Oct 10, 2018 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Timber as an alternative - didn't work so well...
Replies: 19
Views: 2788

Re: Timber as an alternative - didn't work so well...

Well, Timber did work for me. I purchased shares of Plum Creek Timber in 1989 and it was probably the best investment I ever made. I later on owned shares of Willamette Industries and exchanged into Weyerhauser shares after Weyerhauser made a cash purchase of Willamette. Also owned other forest prod...
by nedsaid
Wed Oct 10, 2018 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities
Replies: 197
Views: 10101

Re: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities

...I think the difference in payout and how the payments are funded make pensions less like SPIAs than you believe they are. They are *similar* in that they pay a set amount per month, but the differences are important. For my spouses government pension, the funding is based upon both her contribut...
by nedsaid
Wed Oct 10, 2018 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities
Replies: 197
Views: 10101

Re: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities

My main point is that people are not bashing pensions because there are key differences between many (most?) pensions and SPIAs: 1) pensions often better funded (i.e. employer contributions, especially for government pensions), and 2) the funding of the pension occurs over decades, not all at once ...
by nedsaid
Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities
Replies: 197
Views: 10101

Re: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities

My main point is that people are not bashing pensions because there are key differences between many (most?) pensions and SPIAs: 1) pensions often better funded (i.e. employer contributions, especially for government pensions), and 2) the funding of the pension occurs over decades, not all at once ...
by nedsaid
Wed Oct 10, 2018 1:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities
Replies: 197
Views: 10101

Re: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities

There are better ways of addressing longevity risk. You hinted at this in your article but never addressed the "better ways." Could you let us in on what those better ways are? By the way, thanks much for contributing to this thread. You aren't being dumped on, this is a tough crowd. Just ask Larry...
by nedsaid
Wed Oct 10, 2018 1:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities
Replies: 197
Views: 10101

Re: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities

Not a scam, you are getting the higher payouts because of mortality credits. In other words, as an annuity owner, you get a higher payout because of those who die early. Hopefully, if you purchase one, you don't want to be one of those chumps who dies early. But this is a trade-off and there are tr...
by nedsaid
Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Why Emerging Markets Matter
Replies: 82
Views: 6330

Re: Larry Swedroe: Why Emerging Markets Matter

Lower correlations with US equities and greater expected returns are why I personally am overweight EM relative to IDM in my IPS. If this actually benefits me in the long run is yet to be seen. This is why I made the comment that Emerging Markets are the new REITs. I remember seeing data back in 20...
by nedsaid
Mon Oct 08, 2018 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Biggest bubble in the history of mankind(?) Is it time to sell?
Replies: 40
Views: 3798

Re: Biggest bubble in the history of mankind(?) Is it time to sell?

Ron Paul is calling this the Biggest bubble in the history of mankind and is forecasting a 50% drop in stocks: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/05/ron-paul-us-barreling-towards-a-recession-and-theres-no-escape.html Even Jack Bogle suggested to sell 5 or 10% of equities at the Bogleheads conference, and...