Search found 10175 matches

by nedsaid
Tue Sep 25, 2018 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are target funds off-target?
Replies: 32
Views: 2256

Re: Are target funds off-target?

Target Date funds definitely have their flaws. For one thing, fund companies, including Vanguard, have tinkered with such things as asset allocation, choice of underlying funds, glide paths. Second, such funds may not always be a good fit. For example, we have US only investors here who don't want I...
by nedsaid
Tue Sep 25, 2018 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DIYers Taking a Toll
Replies: 33
Views: 3135

Re: DIYers Taking a Toll

My oldest son was on track to be a wealth manager at a major brokerage. He recently left the field and is pursuing another opportunity. Several of his colleges are doing the same. The reason they mentioned for leaving is the DIYers are not buying their more lucrative investment products thus there ...
by nedsaid
Mon Sep 24, 2018 10:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My CAPE10 based IPS
Replies: 49
Views: 2682

Re: My CAPE10 based IPS

Letsgobobby, your approach is sound. You are correct to be concerned about valuations and future expected returns. It sounds like you are a lot like me in this regard, in actual fact I have been pretty sparing in portfolio adjustments. I made one in early 2000, another in 2005, another in 2007-2008...
by nedsaid
Mon Sep 24, 2018 10:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My CAPE10 based IPS
Replies: 49
Views: 2682

Re: My CAPE10 based IPS

About Swedroe's math, the pre-GAAP earnings allowed companies to unduly defer losses, not to permanently hide them. A permanent downward adjustment to CAPE is... weird. He also picked one varying factor in the middle of 10,000 other historical changes in corporate life, and assigned an arbitrary we...
by nedsaid
Sun Sep 23, 2018 10:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Corporate debt bubble?
Replies: 20
Views: 2384

Re: Corporate debt bubble?

Since at least 1971, debt is money. As the economy grows, it is necessary that debt grows to support it, or else we will fall into deflation. Yes, when President Nixon completely took us off the Gold Standard, the currency was allowed to float, no longer being pegged in any way to the price of Gold.
by nedsaid
Sun Sep 23, 2018 10:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Corporate debt bubble?
Replies: 20
Views: 2384

Re: Corporate debt bubble?

Hello, Recently, there was an article in USA Today about corporate debt, being the new bubble/bust. I just wonder about the soundness of balance sheets out there. Possible dividend and buyback cuts? Opinions? Random walker.......I need that Warren Buffett bikini analogy!! When interest rates were v...
by nedsaid
Sun Sep 23, 2018 10:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My CAPE10 based IPS
Replies: 49
Views: 2682

Re: My CAPE10 based IPS

Letsgobobby, your approach is sound. You are correct to be concerned about valuations and future expected returns. It sounds like you are a lot like me in this regard, in actual fact I have been pretty sparing in portfolio adjustments. I made one in early 2000, another in 2005, another in 2007-2008,...
by nedsaid
Sun Sep 23, 2018 10:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity: REIT funds
Replies: 8
Views: 1036

Re: Fidelity: REIT funds

viz wrote:
Sun Sep 23, 2018 8:01 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Sun Sep 23, 2018 5:51 pm
I own the Fidelity REIT index and the Vanguard REIT Index ETF. Satisfied with both.
Thanks! I assume you are referring to FRXIX for Fidelity. Correct?
Yes, that is correct.
by nedsaid
Sun Sep 23, 2018 5:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity: REIT funds
Replies: 8
Views: 1036

Re: Fidelity: REIT funds

I own the Fidelity REIT index and the Vanguard REIT Index ETF. Satisfied with both.
by nedsaid
Sun Sep 23, 2018 4:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What is right place for MLPs in portfolios?
Replies: 12
Views: 689

Re: What is right place for MLPs in portfolios?

MLPs are Master Limited Partnerships. These trade just like stocks, often have higher dividend payouts, and are often related to energy. They also create K-1 forms which can create a tax preparation nightmare. I would in general not recommend these. A few of these worth consideration but I think the...
by nedsaid
Sun Sep 23, 2018 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My CAPE10 based IPS
Replies: 49
Views: 2682

Re: My CAPE10 based IPS

Here it is, for those who have asked (in summary form, omitting elements of the IPS which are specific to my situation or otherwise personal): * 60/40 stocks/bonds * Bonds 50/50 total bond/stable value until 10 year treasury > 6% * Stocks 50/50 US/international, can go up 75% international based on...
by nedsaid
Sun Sep 23, 2018 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Emotional Investor - I'm a mess and need help!
Replies: 75
Views: 5087

Re: Emotional Investor - I'm a mess and need help!

First of all, you are not alone. We all grapple with emotions. I know with me, the twin bear markets of 2000-2002 and 2008-2009 were not fun. It was tough to see my accounts down by what amounted to two years of take home pay. I joked that I was working for free! At least until the markets recovered...
by nedsaid
Sun Sep 23, 2018 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A bump on the road from active to passive
Replies: 31
Views: 2986

Re: A bump on the road from active to passive

If Star Fund has been successful, just enjoy your success. I would not let your commitment to passive indexing cause you to bail from a fund that has been wildly successful. Sort of like when people complained to President Lincoln about General Grant's drinking. Lincoln wanted to know what Grant was...
by nedsaid
Sat Sep 22, 2018 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR podcast: stocks are not real assets and do not hedge against inflation risk
Replies: 25
Views: 2012

Re: AQR podcast: stocks are not real assets and do not hedge against inflation risk

Yep. We forget about the stagflation of the 1970's. Inflation spikes are bad for both stocks and bonds. One reason I didn't give up on REITs. Would you say that REITs are good inflation hedges? I haven't given much thought to them, after reading an article by Swedroe, in which he concluded: The fin...
by nedsaid
Sat Sep 22, 2018 8:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR podcast: stocks are not real assets and do not hedge against inflation risk
Replies: 25
Views: 2012

Re: AQR podcast: stocks are not real assets and do not hedge against inflation risk

Sorry, didn't listen to the podcast, but IIRC the argument from the AQR camp is that stocks have historically not been priced as if they are real assets (prices don't respond to changes in inflation or inflation expectations that would follow if they were real assets, unlike some other assets). So ...
by nedsaid
Sat Sep 22, 2018 7:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are We Headed For A Passive Index Meltdown?
Replies: 60
Views: 9002

Re: Are We Headed For A Passive Index Meltdown?

The Hedge Funds and the Factor Funds will keep the markets efficient. Active management is not going away either but I expect passive to increase its market share. Factor funds apply quantitative screens/weighting and can be implemented in a passive structure. These funds aren't active but they are...
by nedsaid
Fri Sep 21, 2018 8:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar free "Portfolio Makeover"
Replies: 5
Views: 777

Re: Morningstar free "Portfolio Makeover"

Shoot, we do Portfolio Makeovers all the time here at Bogleheads. I see Money Magazine do these as well. We didn't see it as competition for the good work done by Bogleheads nedsaid. It was simply an opportunity to get another informed point-of-view by someone I believe is well respected in this co...
by nedsaid
Fri Sep 21, 2018 8:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 285
Views: 27646

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Well yes, 1982 through 2012 was a bull market in bonds that was huge. As I recall, long treasuries actually had a slightly better performance than the stock market itself over that time period. There was also a tremendous bull market in stocks from 1984-1999. That is one heck of a wind at the back ...
by nedsaid
Thu Sep 20, 2018 9:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Would Stop Orders with ETFs protect against a downturn?
Replies: 21
Views: 1240

Re: Would Stop Orders with ETFs protect against a downturn?

Stop orders are a great way to lock in your losses. Markets are volatile enough to make this a poor strategy. Pretty much you are buying high and selling low, not a prescription for investing success.
by nedsaid
Thu Sep 20, 2018 9:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar free "Portfolio Makeover"
Replies: 5
Views: 777

Re: Morningstar free "Portfolio Makeover"

Shoot, we do Portfolio Makeovers all the time here at Bogleheads. I see Money Magazine do these as well.
by nedsaid
Thu Sep 20, 2018 8:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSP to Increase Stock Holdings in L Funds
Replies: 48
Views: 2460

Re: TSP to Increase Stock Holdings in L Funds

Another sign this bull market is nearing it's end. We still have a bit to go probably, because my office-mates aren't daytrading yet like they were in 97-99'. On point, so I wonder if that means that those funds already below the target path (take the L-Income fund for instance), will gradually ris...
by nedsaid
Thu Sep 20, 2018 8:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Do You Like My New 'Doo
Replies: 154
Views: 31318

Re: How Do You Like My New 'Doo

On September 18th, I did another round of mild portfolio rebalancing from stocks to bonds, a bit over 1% of my portfolio. Right now, I have the following asset allocation in my portfolio: US Stocks 47.19% International Stocks 18.37% Bonds 30.17% Cash 3.56% Other 0.16% This is a continuation of my pr...
by nedsaid
Thu Sep 20, 2018 10:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In defense of Hedge Funds
Replies: 19
Views: 1043

Re: In defense of Hedge Funds

Um...stock index funds do take into account the returns of companies in the index that fail... Explain please. Stock indexes will sometimes remove companies that fail to meet some criteria (e.g. share price, profitability, liquidity, etc.) but they include the performance of those companies in the ...
by nedsaid
Thu Sep 20, 2018 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robert Shiller interview: "Market could get a lot higher"
Replies: 28
Views: 4486

Re: Robert Shiller interview: "Market could get a lot higher"

The Shiller P/E 10 or CAPE is a good idea. Benjamin Graham discussed the idea of smoothing out earnings way back when. It is a good idea to look to the past to get an idea of what might happen in the future. Problem is, nothing is foolproof. For one thing, changes in Generally Accepted Accounting Pr...
by nedsaid
Thu Sep 20, 2018 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In defense of Hedge Funds
Replies: 19
Views: 1043

Re: In defense of Hedge Funds

edge wrote:
Thu Sep 20, 2018 10:13 am
Um...stock index funds do take into account the returns of companies in the index that fail...
Explain please.
by nedsaid
Thu Sep 20, 2018 9:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In defense of Hedge Funds
Replies: 19
Views: 1043

Re: In defense of Hedge Funds

How about survivorship bias? Good luck. Everything is survivorship bias. It is a really overused term in my opinion. Even the broad indexes exhibit survivorship bias. As far as I know, no one born in 1865 is still living. In the same way, a whole lot of companies that existed then don't exist today...
by nedsaid
Thu Sep 20, 2018 9:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In defense of Hedge Funds
Replies: 19
Views: 1043

Re: In defense of Hedge Funds

How about survivorship bias? Good luck. Everything is survivorship bias. It is a really overused term in my opinion. Even the broad indexes exhibit survivorship bias. As far as I know, no one born in 1865 is still living. In the same way, a whole lot of companies that existed then don't exist today...
by nedsaid
Thu Sep 20, 2018 9:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are We Headed For A Passive Index Meltdown?
Replies: 60
Views: 9002

Re: Are We Headed For A Passive Index Meltdown?

The Hedge Funds and the Factor Funds will keep the markets efficient. Active management is not going away either but I expect passive to increase its market share.
by nedsaid
Tue Sep 18, 2018 7:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 285
Views: 27646

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

MJW wrote:
Tue Sep 18, 2018 7:19 pm
I think now is a great time to throw the rest of my savings into the market...maybe even take out a loan to sweeten the pot!
Well, today was a good up day but yesterday was a down day. You missed your chance. :wink:
by nedsaid
Tue Sep 18, 2018 7:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6846
Views: 1496894

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I last rebalanced back in December 2017. Continuing on my program of mild rebalancing that has continued since July 2013. So I am five years into this program. My rebalancing is mild as each time I have sold 1% or less each time. That should put me at about 65% stocks and 35% bonds and cash. Market...
by nedsaid
Tue Sep 18, 2018 7:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 285
Views: 27646

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

After yesterday's 'buying opportunity', stocks are right back up. The S&P 500 index is up 0.61% so far today :D . I admit it. I posted in the "freefall" thread yesterday because I wanted the markets to go up so that I could rebalance. A few folks responded and by golly the market was up strongly to...
by nedsaid
Tue Sep 18, 2018 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 285
Views: 27646

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

After yesterday's 'buying opportunity', stocks are right back up. The S&P 500 index is up 0.61% so far today :D . I admit it. I posted in the "freefall" thread yesterday because I wanted the markets to go up so that I could rebalance. A few folks responded and by golly the market was up strongly to...
by nedsaid
Tue Sep 18, 2018 7:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6846
Views: 1496894

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I last rebalanced back in December 2017. Continuing on my program of mild rebalancing that has continued since July 2013. So I am five years into this program. My rebalancing is mild as each time I have sold 1% or less each time. That should put me at about 65% stocks and 35% bonds and cash. Market...
by nedsaid
Tue Sep 18, 2018 2:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 285
Views: 27646

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

After yesterday's 'buying opportunity', stocks are right back up. The S&P 500 index is up 0.61% so far today :D . I admit it. I posted in the "freefall" thread yesterday because I wanted the markets to go up so that I could rebalance. A few folks responded and by golly the market was up strongly to...
by nedsaid
Tue Sep 18, 2018 2:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6846
Views: 1496894

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Dow is down 92 points, S&P down 16, and the Nazz down 114. Could this be the start of a correction? Pretty much, I want the market at all time highs and to rebalance my portfolio again. So if this thread gets going again, maybe it will rally. Pretty much, since that darned "Soar" thread started, th...
by nedsaid
Mon Sep 17, 2018 7:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unchanging opinions
Replies: 25
Views: 2190

Re: UNCHANGING OPINIONS

I remember the days when basic research would be done and we would just let it go where ever the facts would lead. Today, it seems that research must have a predetermined result. There were never days when basic research would be done and let it go where ever the facts would lead. Never. Sure, some...
by nedsaid
Mon Sep 17, 2018 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: CalSTRS Pension - Does refund of contributions make sense?
Replies: 7
Views: 678

Re: CalSTRS Pension - Does refund of contributions make sense?

This gets to where you almost need an actuary to figure out if you are getting a good deal. My rule of thumb is that pensions are hard to get nowadays and that in most cases you are better off with the pension rather than a lump sum. The problem here is that California has a pension crisis on their ...
by nedsaid
Mon Sep 17, 2018 6:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6846
Views: 1496894

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Dow is down 92 points, S&P down 16, and the Nazz down 114. Could this be the start of a correction? Pretty much, I want the market at all time highs and to rebalance my portfolio again. So if this thread gets going again, maybe it will rally. Pretty much, since that darned "Soar" thread started, the...
by nedsaid
Mon Sep 17, 2018 6:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Personal Advisor - .30%
Replies: 23
Views: 3114

Re: Vanguard Personal Advisor - .33%

IMO, Vanguard PAS is good for investors that may not fully trust themselves to stay the course. With PAS, you cannot make changes to your portfolio. You must follow their plan and any changes from that plan require a consultation with an adviser. Sometimes that's enough to keep someone from making ...
by nedsaid
Mon Sep 17, 2018 6:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unchanging opinions
Replies: 25
Views: 2190

Re: UNCHANGING OPINIONS

I can't tell you how many times "new information" from studies turned out to be just plain wrong. I think of the studies that told me that coffee was bad for you. Not too long afterwards, you would learn that coffee was good for you. Same with eggs. There is a surprising number of scientific studie...
by nedsaid
Mon Sep 17, 2018 9:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unchanging opinions
Replies: 25
Views: 2190

Re: UNCHANGING OPINIONS

I can't tell you how many times "new information" from studies turned out to be just plain wrong. I think of the studies that told me that coffee was bad for you. Not too long afterwards, you would learn that coffee was good for you. Same with eggs. There is a surprising number of scientific studies...
by nedsaid
Mon Sep 17, 2018 9:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Costly race to bottom on mutual fund fees”
Replies: 13
Views: 1774

Re: “Costly race to bottom on mutual fund fees”

My take on the article is that low fees CAN lead to bad investor behavior, such as frequent trading, but it isn't necessarily so. I would say this is not a problem for most Bogleheads, who tend to be buy and hold. I just don't believe that Fidelity Zero Funds are going to suddenly cause buy-and-hold...
by nedsaid
Sun Sep 16, 2018 4:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Question [about Vanguard's asset allocation recommendations]
Replies: 10
Views: 1183

Re: A Question for the Bogleheads

If you are a follower of Vanguard/Bogle methodology, you should care very much about what Vanguard thinks. It appears that Vanguard is disagreeing a bit with their founder. For example, Vanguard has upped their International allocation of stocks from 20% to 30% and now 40%. Bogle would recommend a m...
by nedsaid
Sun Sep 16, 2018 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are the "best" factors?
Replies: 23
Views: 1767

Re: What are the "best" factors?

Allocating to a 3-fund portfolio is easy for DIY, but it seems like factor investing is less straightforward. I can see why this approach is being promoted today, as it necessitates all manner of funds and advisors, which is an opportunity for fees. Although I don't think factor investing is quite ...
by nedsaid
Sun Sep 16, 2018 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Opinions on American Funds
Replies: 28
Views: 1870

Re: Opinions on American Funds

They are respectable funds that have done well, but the expenses don’t justify the potential benefits in the future. JT This. Also, I can’t really tell what exactly is in each fund. My Af funds didfairly well going through the great recession. I have sold and then bought Fidelity indexfunds. I nowk...
by nedsaid
Sun Sep 16, 2018 3:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Considering Quitting Job - Seeking Advice. Would you do it?
Replies: 154
Views: 11583

Re: Considering Quitting Job - Seeking Advice. Would you do it?

Camillus: To me, a methodical and graceful resignation will come across better to other employers than getting fired. Should I end up never working again, then I agree. There is no way to reduce hours. The nature of the work is driven by requests from above.....senior management requests data, lost...
by nedsaid
Sun Sep 16, 2018 3:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Mom has retired and I need to help
Replies: 12
Views: 2110

Re: Mom has retired and I need to help

My mom has recently retired. She really knows nothing about investing. I am about a year in to a self-education that started with the Bogleheads Guide to Investing and now includes much reading/listening to the WCI, JL Collins, and these forums. Just when I think I've got my own portfolio figured o...
by nedsaid
Sun Sep 16, 2018 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Parent's variable annuity - rollover?
Replies: 6
Views: 340

Re: Parent's variable annuity - rollover?

You could rollover into a much cheaper Vanguard or Fidelity Variable Annuity. The amounts in your dad's annuity are small enough ($10K or so) that I probably wouldn't bother.
by nedsaid
Sun Sep 16, 2018 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are the "best" factors?
Replies: 23
Views: 1767

Re: What are the "best" factors?

Oddly enough, Momentum seems to be the best factor. Sometime ago, I saw an article, I think it was a Larry Swedroe article, that showed that Momentum had the best returns and was most persistent. I was pretty surprised. I would have thought that Value was the best. My guess is that Quality/Profitabi...