Search found 8661 matches

by nedsaid
Sun Nov 19, 2017 1:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar - AQR: The Vanguard of Alternative Investing?
Replies: 27
Views: 1317

Re: Morningstar - AQR: The Vanguard of Alternative Investing?

matjen wrote: What is interesting to me is that we haven't even entered an environment where these types of funds should really shine. When we do, if they perform as expected AQR will explode. If they falter and prove no/little better than beta then major trouble. 1+ I don't think there's any doubt...
by nedsaid
Sat Nov 18, 2017 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Personal Advisor Services/Portfolio Review
Replies: 25
Views: 1286

Re: Vanguard Personal Advisor Services/Portfolio Review

First time post, LONG time reader. Getting my finances in order before wife and I retire next year at 56 and are planning on using Vanguard Personal Advisor Service. (Retiring is a scary step and we personally feel more comfortable with an actual person and are OK with fee for now.) Anyways, after ...
by nedsaid
Sat Nov 18, 2017 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should we be using high equity retirement portfolios? - Some cFIREsim scenarios.
Replies: 47
Views: 3451

Re: Should we be using high equity retirement portfolios? - Some cFIREsim scenarios.

I don't know. From my experience and having known a lot of "old" people and becoming one myself, it just doesn't seem practical that people are going to maintain 100% and 90% stock allocations throughout retirement. It seems that most people I know get more risk averse as they get older.
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 17, 2017 8:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Goldman Sachs mulls the death of the value factor
Replies: 18
Views: 1939

Re: Goldman Sachs mulls the death of the value factor

I will say it again, there are always good reasons for excessive pessimism.
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 17, 2017 8:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Goldman Sachs mulls the death of the value factor
Replies: 18
Views: 1939

Re: Goldman Sachs mulls the death of the value factor

...When BusinessWeek comes out with a "Death of Value" cover, a huge rally in the Large Value stocks will be ahead. It took about 3-4 years after the infamous "Death of Equities" article for one of the greatest bull markets ever to ignite... The "Death of Equities" article is fine. It is constantly...
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 17, 2017 8:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 6026

Re: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?

So I am not telling people to run for the hills in terror. I am not telling people to sell their stocks. What I am saying is that additional caution at this point is warranted. I understand your points, I really do. I'm not saying you are wrong. The chances for a crash or future lower returns (for ...
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 17, 2017 3:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 6026

Re: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?

Yes, Homer there are more variables than P/E ratios. Market sentiment would be another factor to look at. There are also other Value metrics like Price/Book, Price/Sales, and Price/Cash Flow. P/E is the best known of the metrics and it is a good shorthand when thinking about the markets. Another var...
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 17, 2017 2:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where did you first learn about investing?
Replies: 80
Views: 2812

Re: Where did you first learn about investing?

Wall $treet Week with Louis Rukeyser.
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 17, 2017 2:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 6026

Re: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?

I just think it is foolish to say that valuations don't matter, they clearly do. None of this is exact, we can sustain high stock returns if P/E ratios keep expanding. But they won't keep expanding into infinity. At some point, there will be a reversion to the mean. At some point if this keeps us, ...
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 17, 2017 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An hour with David Swensen at Council of Foreign Relations
Replies: 12
Views: 887

Re: An hour with David Swensen at Council of Foreign Relations

Except Swenson isn't marketing to us, he runs the Yale Endowment. He is not part of the Wall Street hype machine. That approach DRIVES the rhetoric of the machine, the belief in "fundamentals" and security analysis as a predictor of performance. The company I worked for currently trades at about $8...
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 17, 2017 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow
Replies: 192
Views: 12896

Re: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow

I've been re-reading Buffett's letters to shareholders, and as usual, he's made some observations that few others in the financial world have made. 1. He agrees that share repurchases are more tax-efficient to shareholders, given the current U.S. tax regime. 2. But he says that managers of corporat...
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 17, 2017 10:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An hour with David Swensen at Council of Foreign Relations
Replies: 12
Views: 887

Re: An hour with David Swensen at Council of Foreign Relations

There is a transcript of the interview. Here is one of many great nuggets: "You know, I have never been a big fan of quantitative approaches to investment. And the fundamental reason is that I can’t understand what’s in the black box. And if I don’t know what’s in the black box, and there’s underpe...
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 17, 2017 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Goldman Sachs mulls the death of the value factor
Replies: 18
Views: 1939

Re: Goldman Sachs mulls the death of the value factor

Yes, we have discussed the difference between Buffett and the academics when it comes to Value. I think I will go with Buffett on this one, as he has his billions and the academics do not. We have to keep in mind that Charlie Munger taught Buffett about Quality so Buffett has modified the Benjamin G...
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 17, 2017 10:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 6026

Re: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?

Simply to note that the record of Wall Street analysts on catching turns in earnings is very poor (David Dreman did a pretty good demolition job on that). Thus, the forward PE is almost certainly wrong. Nedsaid: Yes, Wall Street analysts do tend to be overoptimistic. But earnings estimates are what...
by nedsaid
Thu Nov 16, 2017 8:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Goldman Sachs mulls the death of the value factor
Replies: 18
Views: 1939

Re: Goldman Sachs mulls the death of the value factor

An interesting article from from GS explaining the reasons why value has underperformed for a long spell: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-08/goldman-sachs-mulls-death-of-value-investing-after-losing-decade . GS believes a conjunction of macroeconomic factors and monetary policy are ...
by nedsaid
Thu Nov 16, 2017 8:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 6026

Re: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?

I just think it is foolish to say that valuations don't matter, they clearly do. None of this is exact, we can sustain high stock returns if P/E ratios keep expanding. But they won't keep expanding into infinity. At some point, there will be a reversion to the mean. At some point if this keeps us, ...
by nedsaid
Tue Nov 14, 2017 9:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 6026

Re: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?

We got the 14% growth because of P/E expansion, the speculative return that Mr. Bogle talks about. Stock prices ultimately will reflect actual economic growth and actual corporate earnings growth. Historically, corporate earnings grow probably more like 6% a year on a sustainable basis. Trees do no...
by nedsaid
Tue Nov 14, 2017 9:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Regret of selling winning stocks early
Replies: 64
Views: 8498

Re: Regret of selling winning stocks early

The buy decision is relatively easy to make, the sell decision is much more difficult. I would have thought from a trader's perspective that it would be the opposite? This year I've had two positions go up 30% in two months and I've sold them immediately. I knew there was a chance they might go up ...
by nedsaid
Tue Nov 14, 2017 9:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 6026

Re: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?

What would you say if forward P/E ratios were at 32 rather than 21 as they are today. Is there a point at which you would start listening to experts? What am I bid? One of the problems with assessing what a normalized P/E should be for an entire universe of stocks for a given country over time is t...
by nedsaid
Mon Nov 13, 2017 9:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is all the recent talk about a bond bubble?
Replies: 22
Views: 2267

Re: What is all the recent talk about a bond bubble?

I know if you buy a bond and keep it to maturity, your return is total dividend, with no possible loss (except default). I know if you have a bond fund, it is different. I know that a bond fund can be short, medium, or long term, and each has its pros and cons. So what is going on with all this cov...
by nedsaid
Mon Nov 13, 2017 9:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Regret of selling winning stocks early
Replies: 64
Views: 8498

Re: Regret of selling winning stocks early

Yes, you have suffered from the "Nedsaid effect" which occurs when the investment you sell outperforms what you bought to replace it. This seems to have happened to me at a ratio of 2:1 or even 3:1. Thus my reluctance to sell investments, heck I don't even like to rebalance my portfolio! A trader I...
by nedsaid
Mon Nov 13, 2017 8:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 6026

Re: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?

We got the 14% growth because of P/E expansion, the speculative return that Mr. Bogle talks about. Stock prices ultimately will reflect actual economic growth and actual corporate earnings growth. Historically, corporate earnings grow probably more like 6% a year on a sustainable basis. Trees do no...
by nedsaid
Sun Nov 12, 2017 8:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Am I loopy for thinking about doing this? [Change stock allocation]
Replies: 10
Views: 1357

Re: Am I loopy for thinking about doing this?

Well, you have to run the numbers. When do you plan to take Social Security? Will you have pension income? How much will you need to withdraw from your accounts when you retire to live on? How much in dollars and how much as a percentage of your portfolio? I would use conservative return numbers to ...
by nedsaid
Sun Nov 12, 2017 8:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow
Replies: 192
Views: 12896

Re: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow

Fair enough. I'd also note that where you are focusing on dividends stock buybacks have similar characteristics. That often isn't much acknowledged by those who are very focused on the positive feeling of having a dividend deposited in their account. Yes, share buybacks should be considered also. K...
by nedsaid
Sun Nov 12, 2017 8:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Makes U.S. Treasuries the World's "Safe" Asset?
Replies: 24
Views: 2450

Re: What Makes U.S. Treasuries the World's "Safe" Asset?

What is the evidence that US treasuries are safer? Not sure this would be a productive discussion. One could check the price of sovereign credit default swaps to see how global investors rate the creditworthiness of various countries' government debt around the world — the U.S. vs. Germany vs. Japa...
by nedsaid
Sun Nov 12, 2017 7:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bucket #2: Which Bond Funds Do You Recommend?
Replies: 7
Views: 1113

Re: Bucket #2: Which Bond Funds Do You Recommend?

Nick, there are a lot of opinions on this but pretty much any good investment grade, intermediate term diversified bond fund would fit the bill. The Vanguard US Total Bond Market Index would be perfectly fine. If you were really risk averse, you could use an Intermediate Term US Treasuries fund. As ...
by nedsaid
Sun Nov 12, 2017 7:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow
Replies: 192
Views: 12896

Re: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow

Hoops 777, I have brought up the very same point about Jack Bogle and his comments on dividends many times. For some reason, income from investments is important to him whether it is bond yield or dividend yield. He has recommended using a slice of the stock portion of the portfolio for higher yiel...
by nedsaid
Sun Nov 12, 2017 7:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow
Replies: 192
Views: 12896

Re: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow

Perhaps people are somehow mixing concepts having to do with individual stock investing vs. stock mutual fund investing? (As to where to reinvest dividends?) It is tempting to (have done some of both) do some of both in spite of the (highly likely?) fact that the average person will see more succes...
by nedsaid
Sun Nov 12, 2017 7:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 6026

Re: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?

According to Rob Arnott's group, Research Affiliates What did they predict in the past? Were they correct? I just did a quick google search and I'm not finding a lot of their old predictions. I did see something where Rob Arnott was part of a group that predicted a lower equity premium going forwar...
by nedsaid
Sun Nov 12, 2017 7:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow
Replies: 192
Views: 12896

Re: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow

Hoops 777, I have brought up the very same point about Jack Bogle and his comments on dividends many times. For some reason, income from investments is important to him whether it is bond yield or dividend yield. He has recommended using a slice of the stock portion of the portfolio for higher yield...
by nedsaid
Sun Nov 12, 2017 6:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow
Replies: 192
Views: 12896

Re: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow

Thanks nedsaid for taking the time to help straighten me out. I realize now I was being way too simplistic as well as fatally flawed :happy I was so stuck on the dividend I did not include the other reasons why investors would buy a dividend stock in my thinking :x You know it is kind of alarming i...
by nedsaid
Sun Nov 12, 2017 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman: The One Fund Every Investor Should Own
Replies: 122
Views: 18224

Re: Paul Merriman: The One Fund Every Investor Should Own

Mel Lindauer wrote:
Sat Nov 11, 2017 6:32 pm
Perhaps those who think small caps are a slam dunk should take a look at this thread:

viewtopic.php?p=3609736#p3609736

YMMV.
Don't forget about those mid-caps though!
by nedsaid
Sun Nov 12, 2017 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow
Replies: 192
Views: 12896

Re: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow

I was not in any way saying Larry does not live in the real world,I was adding the why people buy vs just number crunching.I was making my point that maybe since so many of the shares of dividend stocks are only bought BECAUSE they pay dividends, and that these shares maybe compose half the value o...
by nedsaid
Sun Nov 12, 2017 2:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Makes U.S. Treasuries the World's "Safe" Asset?
Replies: 24
Views: 2450

Re: What Makes U.S. Treasuries the World's "Safe" Asset?

Countries that have their debt denominated in their own currency cannot default unless they for some reason choose to. Such a nation can create more money whenever it is needed to service the debt. The problem isn't so much default but possible debasement of the currency through inflation. Such coun...
by nedsaid
Sun Nov 12, 2017 1:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow
Replies: 192
Views: 12896

Re: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow

Man, I never went to parochial school but there are people here who see fit to enforce discipline on investing scofflaws. If arguing against misguided ideas (like dividends investing > total return investing) is worthy of criticism, OK. I'd argue that letting inaccurate statements stand unchallenge...
by nedsaid
Sat Nov 11, 2017 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How does this target date fund look?
Replies: 14
Views: 707

Re: How does this target date fund look?

You can always quibble over asset allocation but this looks like a pretty good low cost investment option. You have approximately a 50% stock/50% bond portfolio and that is age appropriate for a recent retiree. If we had another really bad 50% down bear market, your losses would be 23-25% or so, if...
by nedsaid
Sat Nov 11, 2017 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman: The One Fund Every Investor Should Own
Replies: 122
Views: 18224

Re: Paul Merriman: The One Fund Every Investor Should Own

Just thinking out loud and asking. I have been spending a lot of time on Paul Merriman's website. Look like he is really into teaching investors with his books, videos, articles. Also, looks as he is just trying to help investors get better returns if possible (always state no guarantee) just looki...
by nedsaid
Sat Nov 11, 2017 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How does this target date fund look?
Replies: 14
Views: 707

Re: How does this target date fund look?

You can always quibble over asset allocation but this looks like a pretty good low cost investment option. You have approximately a 50% stock/50% bond portfolio and that is age appropriate for a recent retiree. If we had another really bad 50% down bear market, your losses would be 23-25% or so, if ...
by nedsaid
Sat Nov 11, 2017 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow
Replies: 192
Views: 12896

Re: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow

"the price of your shares falls by the amount of the dividends" This is what I don't agree with. Over the long term (5-10 years or more) if cash is held in a company rather than being paid out as a dividend, nobody knows for sure what would happen to the market price of the stock. That money could ...
by nedsaid
Sat Nov 11, 2017 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value Averaging with Bonds: an example
Replies: 2
Views: 373

Re: Value Averaging with Bonds: an example

This is a very interesting idea, I have heard of this being done for stock funds but not for bond funds. I hope other people respond to your post, though you don't post often, they are always worthwhile to read. Thanks for posting. I hope a great discussion ensues.
by nedsaid
Sat Nov 11, 2017 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yay, my question was answered by Jack
Replies: 40
Views: 3662

Re: Yay, my question was answered by Jack

I just watched the 2017 Q&A and Mel asked Jack my question. I now have the blessing from Jack that my strategy is perfectly sound. The question I asked was: If one were to look at social security as part of their fixed income, what will be wrong with holding the balanced index for life and never lo...
by nedsaid
Sat Nov 11, 2017 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow
Replies: 192
Views: 12896

Re: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow

Man, I never went to parochial school but there are people here who see fit to enforce discipline on investing scofflaws. If arguing against misguided ideas (like dividends investing > total return investing) is worthy of criticism, OK. I'd argue that letting inaccurate statements stand unchallenge...
by nedsaid
Sat Nov 11, 2017 7:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much does diligent rebalancing add to a portfolio?
Replies: 35
Views: 2266

Re: How much does diligent rebalancing add to a portfolio?

I played around in Portfolio visualizer, using an allocation that roughly corresponds to the asset allocation that my own portfolio has had over the years. It appears that since I did not rebalance from bonds to stocks during the 2008-2009 bear market and financial crisis, that I may have sacrificed...
by nedsaid
Sat Nov 11, 2017 7:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow
Replies: 192
Views: 12896

Re: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow

I am not getting started again, but probably 98 pct of the investing public thinks Fama and French is something on aisle 7 at the supermarket, which is why I tried to defend them in the first place, but alas, I was overwhelmed by technical correctness and I lost my case, dooming millions to living ...
by nedsaid
Sat Nov 11, 2017 7:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you keep anything in your portfolio as a monument to your bad decisions?
Replies: 67
Views: 4218

Re: Do you keep anything in your portfolio as a monument to your bad decisions?

I still have some shares from AIG, which I bought after their vertiginous drop. Being my usual contrarian, I thought this would be a terrific deal if I were to buy at a (fairly) low point and wait 5+ years. Well, 8 years later, I didn't lose my shirt on those, but certainly didn't do terribly well ...
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 10, 2017 6:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Individual Stocks
Replies: 22
Views: 1398

Re: Individual Stocks

Thanks for chiming in. How many stocks do you need for a good sample? My guess would be 50. The election polls usually have samples of 1,200 likely voters or something like that. I know of the techniques to pick the 20 or so stocks to replicate the S&P 500. Election polls assume that the sample siz...
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 10, 2017 5:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Individual Stocks
Replies: 22
Views: 1398

Re: Individual Stocks

Right now, I have 18 stocks in my brokerage IRA. Over time, it has varied from 15-20 stocks. The exception was when I was starting out, I had one! But I branched out over time and 15-20 seems to be optimal for a small investor. Plus most of my stocks are well-known names that you will recognize. Pr...
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 10, 2017 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does the S&P 500 just *seem* expensive because of sector weights?
Replies: 9
Views: 1097

Re: Does the S&P 500 just *seem* expensive because of sector weights?

This is food for thought. The sectors argument is a good one for International investing. For example, the Canadian stock market is concentrated in four sectors. The US Stock Market is tech heavy. An international portfolio would avoid the sector concentration of individual country stock markets. An...
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 10, 2017 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Individual Stocks
Replies: 22
Views: 1398

Re: Individual Stocks

The last I looked, my individual stock portfolio beat the US Total Stock Market Index by a whopping 0.10% over the last 15 years. When I looked a few months earlier, I was trailing over 15 years by something like 0.83%. So it is not like I have set the world on fire. Wow. It is incredible that over...