Search found 10255 matches

by nedsaid
Mon Oct 15, 2018 12:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Hedge Fund’s & Undervalued Stocks
Replies: 1
Views: 276

Re: Larry Swedroe: Hedge Fund’s & Undervalued Stocks

One reason I am not concerned that markets will become less efficient with the rise of indexing is that there is lots of money still out there in hedge funds. Reason two would be the rise of factor investing even with more passive techniques. Reason three is that active management in retail funds wi...
by nedsaid
Mon Oct 15, 2018 12:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 2018 Good For Gurus
Replies: 3
Views: 485

Re: Larry Swedroe: 2018 Good For Gurus

If the gurus have a positive score in 2018, it will be the first time in 9 years. Not good odds.
by nedsaid
Mon Oct 15, 2018 12:19 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please help with asset allocation - 63 yr old
Replies: 12
Views: 1146

Re: Please help with asset allocation - 63 yr old

What I would do is look at the asset allocation models for the Target 2020 Funds. Take a look and see what Vanguard, Fidelity, and T. Rowe Price are doing. You will get the best thinking of what the mutual fund industry thinks is appropriate for someone your age. Vanguard is at 53.52% stocks and 46....
by nedsaid
Sun Oct 14, 2018 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Invest in target date fund or do myself? Poor return Schwab Private Client
Replies: 13
Views: 1215

Re: Invest in target date fund or do myself? Poor return Schwab Private Client

Thanks everyone for input. Replies to questions: $550K is in IRA $450 in taxable Total now is 38% US Stock; 31% intl; 5 core bond; 14 in muni bond Thomas Partners $160 K (owned by Schwab)has done fine but the rest managed by Private Client not good So sounds like my option is to move IRA into a VTI...
by nedsaid
Sun Oct 14, 2018 8:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it better to have fewer investment choices?
Replies: 19
Views: 1337

Re: Is it better to have fewer investment choices?

I am rolling over a Variable Annuity to Fidelity. I will use Taylor's 3 fund portfolio: US Total Stock Market Index, an International Stock Index, and a US Bond Index. The simple portfolios work just fine.
by nedsaid
Sun Oct 14, 2018 8:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Invest in target date fund or do myself? Poor return Schwab Private Client
Replies: 13
Views: 1215

Re: Invest in target date fund or do myself? Poor return Schwab Private Client

I am new member. Low 60's age, should be mod aggressive investor. Have one million to invest and don't need money for at least 10,to 15 years. Schwab Private Client for 4 years and lagged against all benchmarks. Am now down -4.3% YTD w 67% stock. Husband in Vanguard 2020 target fund only 1%. No one...
by nedsaid
Sun Oct 14, 2018 7:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does international really buy you diversification?
Replies: 43
Views: 4130

Re: Does international really buy you diversification?

I see this as a recurring theme over tye past 20years or so - a fall in us stocks leads to a fall in European stocks the next day.if these walk so much hand under hand, are we really getting any diversification by investubg in international stocks? International bonds, on the other hand, might be a...
by nedsaid
Sun Oct 14, 2018 6:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sears, a 125 year old company is now a penny stock.
Replies: 95
Views: 10973

Re: Sears, a 125 year old company is now a penny stock.

Keep this in mind whenever anybody starts saying that a portfolio of a few good blue-chip stocks are not risky, if they are stocks in truly great companies, household names, that "aren't going to go away." Because "everybody will always need" refrigerators, sensible clothing, and durable tools. Wel...
by nedsaid
Sat Oct 13, 2018 11:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Why Emerging Markets Matter
Replies: 82
Views: 6101

Re: Larry Swedroe: Why Emerging Markets Matter

Lower correlations with US equities and greater expected returns are why I personally am overweight EM relative to IDM in my IPS. If this actually benefits me in the long run is yet to be seen. This is why I made the comment that Emerging Markets are the new REITs. I remember seeing data back in 20...
by nedsaid
Sat Oct 13, 2018 11:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7350
Views: 1542567

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Why are the long term interest rates moving up? Fed only controls short term rates. So for long term rates to go up that means lot of long term bond selling going on, meaning prices dropping and yields going up. If money is moving out of long term bonds it's definitely not going into stocks since s...
by nedsaid
Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7350
Views: 1542567

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

The classic too much money chasing too few goods and services argument. An interesting data point related to the too much money question. At last week's BH conference, Gus Sauter gave a presentation on the Endowment model and Private Equity. (slides and video are on the forum somewhere.) A key take...
by nedsaid
Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7350
Views: 1542567

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Why are the long term interest rates moving up? Fed only controls short term rates. So for long term rates to go up that means lot of long term bond selling going on, meaning prices dropping and yields going up. If money is moving out of long term bonds it's definitely not going into stocks since s...
by nedsaid
Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7350
Views: 1542567

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I think what is happening is that interest rates are moving, so far in October the yield on the 10 year treasury has moved up from 3.09% to 3.22%. Pretty good move in just 10 days! The 30 year US Treasury has moved from a yield of 3.24% to 3.39%. That is a fairly big move in a few days. This is the...
by nedsaid
Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7350
Views: 1542567

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I think what is happening is that interest rates are moving, so far in October the yield on the 10 year treasury has moved up from 3.09% to 3.22%. Pretty good move in just 10 days! The 30 year US Treasury has moved from a yield of 3.24% to 3.39%. That is a fairly big move in a few days. No one know...
by nedsaid
Thu Oct 11, 2018 1:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7350
Views: 1542567

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I think what is happening is that interest rates are moving, so far in October the yield on the 10 year treasury has moved up from 3.09% to 3.22%. Pretty good move in just 10 days! The 30 year US Treasury has moved from a yield of 3.24% to 3.39%. That is a fairly big move in a few days. No one know...
by nedsaid
Thu Oct 11, 2018 1:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7350
Views: 1542567

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I think what is happening is that interest rates are moving, so far in October the yield on the 10 year treasury has moved up from 3.09% to 3.22%. Pretty good move in just 10 days! The 30 year US Treasury has moved from a yield of 3.24% to 3.39%. That is a fairly big move in a few days. No one know...
by nedsaid
Thu Oct 11, 2018 1:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Why Emerging Markets Matter
Replies: 82
Views: 6101

Re: Larry Swedroe: Why Emerging Markets Matter

Lower correlations with US equities and greater expected returns are why I personally am overweight EM relative to IDM in my IPS. If this actually benefits me in the long run is yet to be seen. This is why I made the comment that Emerging Markets are the new REITs. I remember seeing data back in 20...
by nedsaid
Wed Oct 10, 2018 8:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7350
Views: 1542567

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Wow. Dow 30 Index is now down 831 points today. The market isn't loving the higher interest rates. Something is going on here, are the hedge funds doing something we don't know about? It doesn't make any sense to me but markets sometimes do stuff like this. Pretty irrational. Why do folks assume th...
by nedsaid
Wed Oct 10, 2018 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 302
Views: 31178

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Just out of curiosity, I decided to check the market averages when this thread started on August 27, 2018. I found this below at Zacks Equity Research. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) advanced 0.5%, to close at 25,790.35. The S&P 500 gained 0.6% to close at 2,874.69. The Nasdaq Composite Inde...
by nedsaid
Wed Oct 10, 2018 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 RBD?
Replies: 28
Views: 2029

Re: S&P 500 RBD?

FIREchief wrote:
Wed Oct 10, 2018 2:28 pm
Well it is October.... :twisted:
Reminds me of the famous Mark Twain quote:
OCTOBER: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks in. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February.
by nedsaid
Wed Oct 10, 2018 3:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7350
Views: 1542567

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Wow. Dow 30 Index is now down 831 points today. The market isn't loving the higher interest rates. Something is going on here, are the hedge funds doing something we don't know about? It doesn't make any sense to me but markets sometimes do stuff like this. Pretty irrational.
by nedsaid
Wed Oct 10, 2018 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Timber as an alternative - didn't work so well...
Replies: 19
Views: 2673

Re: Timber as an alternative - didn't work so well...

Well, Timber did work for me. I purchased shares of Plum Creek Timber in 1989 and it was probably the best investment I ever made. I later on owned shares of Willamette Industries and exchanged into Weyerhauser shares after Weyerhauser made a cash purchase of Willamette. Also owned other forest prod...
by nedsaid
Wed Oct 10, 2018 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities
Replies: 185
Views: 9069

Re: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities

...I think the difference in payout and how the payments are funded make pensions less like SPIAs than you believe they are. They are *similar* in that they pay a set amount per month, but the differences are important. For my spouses government pension, the funding is based upon both her contribut...
by nedsaid
Wed Oct 10, 2018 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities
Replies: 185
Views: 9069

Re: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities

My main point is that people are not bashing pensions because there are key differences between many (most?) pensions and SPIAs: 1) pensions often better funded (i.e. employer contributions, especially for government pensions), and 2) the funding of the pension occurs over decades, not all at once ...
by nedsaid
Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities
Replies: 185
Views: 9069

Re: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities

My main point is that people are not bashing pensions because there are key differences between many (most?) pensions and SPIAs: 1) pensions often better funded (i.e. employer contributions, especially for government pensions), and 2) the funding of the pension occurs over decades, not all at once ...
by nedsaid
Wed Oct 10, 2018 1:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities
Replies: 185
Views: 9069

Re: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities

There are better ways of addressing longevity risk. You hinted at this in your article but never addressed the "better ways." Could you let us in on what those better ways are? By the way, thanks much for contributing to this thread. You aren't being dumped on, this is a tough crowd. Just ask Larry...
by nedsaid
Wed Oct 10, 2018 1:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities
Replies: 185
Views: 9069

Re: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities

Not a scam, you are getting the higher payouts because of mortality credits. In other words, as an annuity owner, you get a higher payout because of those who die early. Hopefully, if you purchase one, you don't want to be one of those chumps who dies early. But this is a trade-off and there are tr...
by nedsaid
Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Why Emerging Markets Matter
Replies: 82
Views: 6101

Re: Larry Swedroe: Why Emerging Markets Matter

Lower correlations with US equities and greater expected returns are why I personally am overweight EM relative to IDM in my IPS. If this actually benefits me in the long run is yet to be seen. This is why I made the comment that Emerging Markets are the new REITs. I remember seeing data back in 20...
by nedsaid
Mon Oct 08, 2018 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Biggest bubble in the history of mankind(?) Is it time to sell?
Replies: 40
Views: 3761

Re: Biggest bubble in the history of mankind(?) Is it time to sell?

Ron Paul is calling this the Biggest bubble in the history of mankind and is forecasting a 50% drop in stocks: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/05/ron-paul-us-barreling-towards-a-recession-and-theres-no-escape.html Even Jack Bogle suggested to sell 5 or 10% of equities at the Bogleheads conference, and...
by nedsaid
Mon Oct 08, 2018 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities
Replies: 185
Views: 9069

Re: Alan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities

Wow. This is really interesting. Bogleheads used to like Single Premium Immediate Annuities. Alan Roth writes one article and all the sudden SPIA's are a scam. I don't get it. Amazed that people are so easily swayed by one article. Doesn't bode well for the forum. Just wait until somebody writes a ...
by nedsaid
Mon Oct 08, 2018 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 7 Investing Truths That Aren't
Replies: 53
Views: 5809

Re: 7 Investing Truths That Aren't

I think I could argue just about all of those non-truths aren't falsehoods either. ... I mean, a trend following strategy that's buying stocks on the way up and trys to sell when it reverses has had periods of success... I would have a difficult time explaining duration or convexity of a bond fund ...
by nedsaid
Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Why Emerging Markets Matter
Replies: 82
Views: 6101

Re: Larry Swedroe: Why Emerging Markets Matter

I guess Emerging Markets are the new REITs. I heard the about the same case for REITs back in 2007 that I am hearing for Emerging Markets now. I have held both asset classes for a long time.
by nedsaid
Sun Oct 07, 2018 11:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Doubling down on EM [Emerging Market]
Replies: 55
Views: 5674

Re: Doubling down on EM [Emerging Market]

I’ve always had an EM-heavy portfolio, but during the recent decline in EM stock markets I’ve been adding to my holdings considersably. Particularly now with VWO under $40, it’s hard to resist buying EM for the long haul. The long run of underperformance in EM has definitely been frustrating, but I...
by nedsaid
Sun Oct 07, 2018 11:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Surprised by Jack's answer to Fidelity's 0 mgmt fund threat
Replies: 77
Views: 7781

Re: Surprised by Jack's answer to Fidelity's 0 mgmt fund threat

Wow. Vanguard is a scam now. Where does this stop? Vanguard is in a price war with Fidelity and Blackrock. Maybe Fidelity can offer lower expense ratios on its index funds because its Index Funds are loss leaders to draw in customers who then might buy higher fee active funds. All I can say is that ...
by nedsaid
Sun Oct 07, 2018 11:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Surprised by Jack's answer to Fidelity's 0 mgmt fund threat
Replies: 77
Views: 7781

Re: Surprised by Jack's answer to Fidelity's 0 mgmt fund threat

All these let’s-bash-Fidelity threads seem childish to me. I think it’s wonderful that Fidelity has lowered both minimum investments and expense ratios on many existing funds and that they have introduced four new ZERO funds. Competition is good for investors no matter which brokerage they use or w...
by nedsaid
Sun Oct 07, 2018 11:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities
Replies: 185
Views: 9069

Re: Alan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities

It does not take much to show that annuities are a financial scam on consumers -- totally legal just like payday lenders in most states. Scam #1: They are advertised featuring "payout rates" which most consumers compare to CD rates because most people do not know better even after they read the fin...
by nedsaid
Sun Oct 07, 2018 3:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities
Replies: 185
Views: 9069

Re: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities

It does not take much to show that annuities are a financial scam on consumers -- totally legal just like payday lenders in most states. Scam #1: They are advertised featuring "payout rates" which most consumers compare to CD rates because most people do not know better even after they read the fin...
by nedsaid
Sun Oct 07, 2018 12:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Surprised by Jack's answer to Fidelity's 0 mgmt fund threat
Replies: 77
Views: 7781

Re: Surprised by Jack's answer to Fidelity's 0 mgmt fund threat

I recently rolled two Fidelity workplace savings plans into a Fidelity rollover IRA. I felt like I had died and gone to investment heaven. There were a lot of mutual funds available with no transaction fee and also Fidelity and iShares ETFs available with no fees. I did purchase a Wisdom Tree ETF fo...
by nedsaid
Sun Oct 07, 2018 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Case for buying individual Stocks as 10% of portfolio
Replies: 43
Views: 3134

Re: Case for buying individual Stocks as 10% of portfolio

I have owned individual stocks for almost 30 years now and my eyeballing and return calculations from Quicken show that these stocks have about tracked the market. It was a lot of fun but not sure it was worth the effort. Probably what I did was sample the market and the sample size was large enough...
by nedsaid
Sat Oct 06, 2018 10:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg - Cliff Asness Interview
Replies: 22
Views: 1957

Re: Bloomberg - Cliff Asness Interview

nedsaid wrote: I guess if Garland gives up on Small Value, that ought to be a buy signal. There is no doubt that this is true. The nedsaid effect works in my case reliably. Things I buy immediately drop in value and things I sell immediately go up. AQR and RAFI should pay me to bail on SCV, but I'm...
by nedsaid
Sat Oct 06, 2018 10:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg - Cliff Asness Interview
Replies: 22
Views: 1957

Re: Bloomberg - Cliff Asness Interview

My eyeballing says that Growth is winning out over Value in the International arena as well. You goaded me into checking: EAFE value index (tracked by the iShares EFV ETF) 1 year -.36% 3 years 8.12 5 years 3.14 10 years 4.49 since 2005: 3.88 EAFE growth index (tracked by the iShares EFG ETF) 1 year...
by nedsaid
Fri Oct 05, 2018 7:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Key differences between investing philosophies: Swedroe vs. Bogle
Replies: 144
Views: 7524

Re: Key differences between investing philosophies: Swedroe vs. Bogle

Jack believes in portfolio simplicity. Larry believes in portfolio complexity. I believe in Jack. Rick Ferri Bogleheads: I believe in Jack and Rick Ferri. Best wishes. Taylor I believe in evidence-based investing, not people. OK, so post a graph of Jack's and Larry's approaches over the last 30 or ...
by nedsaid
Fri Oct 05, 2018 7:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg - Cliff Asness Interview
Replies: 22
Views: 1957

Re: Bloomberg - Cliff Asness Interview

My eyeballing says that Growth is winning out over Value in the International arena as well. You goaded me into checking: EAFE value index (tracked by the iShares EFV ETF) 1 year -.36% 3 years 8.12 5 years 3.14 10 years 4.49 since 2005: 3.88 EAFE growth index (tracked by the iShares EFG ETF) 1 year...
by nedsaid
Fri Oct 05, 2018 6:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg - Cliff Asness Interview
Replies: 22
Views: 1957

Re: Bloomberg - Cliff Asness Interview

My eyeballing says that Growth is winning out over Value in the International arena as well. You goaded me into checking: EAFE value index (tracked by the iShares EFV ETF) 1 year -.36% 3 years 8.12 5 years 3.14 10 years 4.49 since 2005: 3.88 EAFE growth index (tracked by the iShares EFG ETF) 1 year...
by nedsaid
Thu Oct 04, 2018 10:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg - Cliff Asness Interview
Replies: 22
Views: 1957

Re: Bloomberg - Cliff Asness Interview

get the facts right, value in US has been slightly negative over last 10 years or so, but is has been positive internationally by greater amount over the same period. And nothing unusual as value has underperformed about 14% of 10 year periods if memory serves. so taking both int'l and domestic the...
by nedsaid
Thu Oct 04, 2018 9:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg - Cliff Asness Interview
Replies: 22
Views: 1957

Re: Bloomberg - Cliff Asness Interview

nedsaid wrote: I am not the only one noticing that value is continuing to have a tough time. Indeed, Value has been on an extended 10 year vacation, trailing the rest of the market. It's longer than 10 years, nedsaid. The following are portfolio performance statistics comparing portfolio results fr...
by nedsaid
Thu Oct 04, 2018 9:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Key differences between investing philosophies: Swedroe vs. Bogle
Replies: 144
Views: 7524

Re: Key differences between investing philosophies: Swedroe vs. Bogle

Jack believes in portfolio simplicity. Larry believes in portfolio complexity. I believe in Jack. Rick Ferri Bogleheads: I believe in Jack and Rick Ferri. Best wishes. Taylor Taylor, I am sooooo old, that I remember when Rick Ferri believed in factor tilting. Somewhere, I have his book on "All Abou...
by nedsaid
Thu Oct 04, 2018 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Key differences between investing philosophies: Swedroe vs. Bogle
Replies: 144
Views: 7524

Re: Key differences between investing philosophies: Swedroe vs. Bogle

Nisiprius, my journey was different than Swedroe's as you describe above. I started out with an IRA with FDIC Insured Certificates of Deposit. I bought my first mutual fund, an active fund in July 1984. In 1988, I took my IRA to a friend who entered the brokerage business. So then I went to a low tu...
by nedsaid
Thu Oct 04, 2018 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Be Prepared For Losses
Replies: 100
Views: 11955

Re: Larry Swedroe: Be Prepared For Losses

Darn it, Dave. The day after you posted this, the US Stock Market drops! One could say that you were timely or one could say that you jinxed the market. Darn it anyway. :wink: I don’t even have the power to make my 10yo brush his teeth, so I definitely didn’t cause any market moves! Dave Well, I gu...
by nedsaid
Thu Oct 04, 2018 3:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7350
Views: 1542567

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I think there are things going on under the radar. On October 4, 2018, an "up" day for the markets, my portfolio went down. Have noticed the last few days that despite a "record" new highs for the market averages that my portfolio value kept ticking down. This hints that relatively few stocks are d...