Search found 9820 matches

by nedsaid
Mon Aug 13, 2018 10:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Effective Fund Comparison
Replies: 1
Views: 273

Re: Larry Swedroe: Effective Fund Comparison

One caution here, Book Value is in my view getting to be increasingly irrelevant. Too much of a company's value is tied up in intangible assets, which are difficult for accountants to measure. Companies seem to have more and more intangibles, we are beyond the old days of just looking at property, p...
by nedsaid
Mon Aug 13, 2018 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 177
Views: 9145

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

I agree with Park here. You do see value at the individual security level (a cheap stock) more than you see in diversified groups of stocks. By definition this is the case. Packer I think I disagree. I believe the performance of the small value asset class is almost fully explained by just a few wi...
by nedsaid
Mon Aug 13, 2018 9:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?
Replies: 95
Views: 9576

Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Amazon is killing much of retail but remember how competitive retail is. When I started my career in the early 1980's, Sears was the number one retailer. Now they are disappearing faster than a snowball in Hades. Something will come along that will challenge Amazon. The thing that struck me about A...
by nedsaid
Sun Aug 12, 2018 11:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?
Replies: 95
Views: 9576

Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

My feeling is that none of the three will be huge in 20 years (just a hunch) as tech is moving super fast and disruption is happening everywhere. But - if I had to rank them - Google>Amazon>Apple - Google has branched out effectively in areas that have allowed them to be major players in: A) web/ma...
by nedsaid
Sun Aug 12, 2018 11:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advisor or no advisor?
Replies: 12
Views: 1055

Re: Advisor or no advisor?

:moneybag You don't say how much you are paying the advisor, so here's my experience with advisors. I used an advisor at Vanguard for 3/10th % of the managed assets. The advisor did not listen to my thoughts on asset allocation or how to invest my money. We did agree on a 60/40 allocation of stocks...
by nedsaid
Sun Aug 12, 2018 11:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Moving from Vanguard to Fidelity
Replies: 49
Views: 5933

Re: Moving from Vanguard to Fidelity

I don't have a Vanguard account but I do have Vanguard Funds and ETFs. I am keeping my Vanguard investments. I also own Fidelity Index funds and am a Fidelity customer. These are both good fund companies, where I a Vanguard account holder, I would not be in a hurry to switch. I have accounts at bot...
by nedsaid
Sun Aug 12, 2018 6:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Financial Advisor Mandatory?
Replies: 36
Views: 2962

Re: Financial Advisor Mandatory?

I am 40, wife is 35. $535K Net Worth. $125K Gross Income. Zero Debt. Saving near 18% in a mix of 401K's and Roth IRA's. no children currently. Do we need a financial advisor? (Two absolutely terrible experiences with financial advisors in the past who tried to sell us insurance we don't need) We ha...
by nedsaid
Sun Aug 12, 2018 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Wacky Magellan stock prices
Replies: 5
Views: 542

Re: Wacky Magellan stock prices

Now I know. Thanks for the prompt response to my question from my learned and educated posters. I can now put my heart back in my chest! :D david I was having fun with this. I saw the other thread about the 10:1 split and I just knew someone would raise this question. For a newer investor, one migh...
by nedsaid
Sun Aug 12, 2018 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NYT: The Big, Dangerous Bubble in Corporate Debt
Replies: 18
Views: 3393

Re: NYT: The Big, Dangerous Bubble in Corporate Debt

I agree that there is presently risk in higher yielding bond instruments (junk, cov-lite, P2P, student loans, sub-prime car loans, etc.,) and to a less extent in the investment grade corporate bond segment. Yield spreads between these less secure credit instruments and Treasuries contracted during ...
by nedsaid
Sun Aug 12, 2018 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Wacky Magellan stock prices
Replies: 5
Views: 542

Re: Wacky Magellan stock prices

I knew it, I knew it, I knew it! Man, I have just amazing psychic powers. Someone started a thread that certain Fidelity Funds had a 10 for 1 share split. I predicted that someone would notice that and ask, "Why did my fund fall so much in value?" This happens every year when funds distribute capita...
by nedsaid
Sun Aug 12, 2018 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe:Don’t Go “Mad Money”
Replies: 20
Views: 2769

Re: Larry Swedroe:Don’t Go “Mad Money”

I installed some stuff in the Cramer/Kudlow studio many years back. Jim was loved by the staff and a nice guy. Other one not so much. I love this quote from Larry's article....Cramer himself provides a fitting conclusion: In a 2007 issue of New York magazine, he stated: “God knows why, but there se...
by nedsaid
Sun Aug 12, 2018 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 177
Views: 9145

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

The following is my $0.02, and I may be overvaluing that :-). Nedsaid: Join the club. I am only right about anything around here every six months or so. So every once in a while I say something memorable, otherwise just ignore everything ekse I say! :wink: There is security selection and there is m...
by nedsaid
Sun Aug 12, 2018 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe:Don’t Go “Mad Money”
Replies: 20
Views: 2769

Re: Larry Swedroe:Don’t Go “Mad Money”

Larry Swedroe said: While demand for Cramer’s stock picks increases, short-selling volume (bets that the stock will fall) also increases. In the opening minutes of the day following a recommendation, short sales increase to almost seven times their normal levels, and they remain elevated for three ...
by nedsaid
Sat Aug 11, 2018 7:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe:Don’t Go “Mad Money”
Replies: 20
Views: 2769

Re: Larry Swedroe:Don’t Go “Mad Money”

Larry Swedroe said: While demand for Cramer’s stock picks increases, short-selling volume (bets that the stock will fall) also increases. In the opening minutes of the day following a recommendation, short sales increase to almost seven times their normal levels, and they remain elevated for three ...
by nedsaid
Sat Aug 11, 2018 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 177
Views: 9145

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

I remember seeing an analysis of the different factors. It seemed that momentum not only had the highest returns but was the most reliable of the factors. Wish I could easily find that thread again, but quite frankly I was very surprised by this. I would have expected Profitability/Quality to be th...
by nedsaid
Sat Aug 11, 2018 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Moving from Vanguard to Fidelity
Replies: 49
Views: 5933

Re: Moving from Vanguard to Fidelity

It would be ironic if because of Fidelity's recent introduction of Zero Funds and the slashing of fees for its other index funds, if this became a Fidelity forum rather than a Vanguard forum. There are folks here thinking about making the switch from Vanguard to Fidelity to take advantage of the pri...
by nedsaid
Sat Aug 11, 2018 9:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 177
Views: 9145

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

I guess the worst thing you can say to another poster on this forum is to accuse them of market timing. So we have to come up with euphemisms like aggressive rebalancing or opportunistic reallocation. Most all of us have done some form of market timing, though probably in its very mildest forms. Pr...
by nedsaid
Sat Aug 11, 2018 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 177
Views: 9145

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

I guess the worst thing you can say to another poster on this forum is to accuse them of market timing. So we have to come up with euphemisms like aggressive rebalancing or opportunistic reallocation. Most all of us have done some form of market timing, though probably in its very mildest forms. Pr...
by nedsaid
Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:29 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do Airlines measure checked baggages?
Replies: 33
Views: 1994

Re: Do Airlines measure checked baggages?

I've flown a lot and never had a checked bag measured unless it was obviously oversized and then it was measured to see how much I would have to pay extra to check it. The airlines have been pretty lenient on this from what I can see but passengers obviously have abused this. I have seen some prett...
by nedsaid
Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 177
Views: 9145

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

There does get to be a point where you have to agree to disagree. Larry isn't willy-nilly market timing but he does take valuations and future expected return into account when determining asset allocation. HomerJ says he is taking a conservative approach and so he isn't concerned about valuations. ...
by nedsaid
Thu Aug 09, 2018 6:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 177
Views: 9145

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

There is no plan for most of us in our early years. Nedsaid: I think this is right. I just opened an IRA and later a workplace 403(b) and saved as much as I could and invested best I could. No big plan. I just knew that I needed to get started. In your 20s and 30s... you don't even really know how ...
by nedsaid
Thu Aug 09, 2018 5:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NYT: The Big, Dangerous Bubble in Corporate Debt
Replies: 18
Views: 3393

Re: NYT: The Big, Dangerous Bubble in Corporate Debt

Interest rates were so cheap that companies loaded up on low interest debt to retire stock. It actually could help cash flow as the yields on stock were often higher than yields on debt. So if companies could float debt to retire stock, keep in mind that the opposite can happen, companies float stoc...
by nedsaid
Thu Aug 09, 2018 4:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Employer will not indemnify me cause I am retired
Replies: 56
Views: 5213

Re: Employer will not indemnify me cause I am retired

My umbrella insurance agent said that I was not liable because I am a volunteer, nonpaid, and most importantly, our committee has no power to make decisions. In the meantime, am I missing anything? Is your insurance agent qualified to make this sort of assessment? If there is no chance of any liabi...
by nedsaid
Thu Aug 09, 2018 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity announced 10-for-1 fund splits in certain mutual funds
Replies: 18
Views: 3505

Re: Fidelity announced 10-for-1 fund splits in certain mutual funds

I can't wait for the "Why did my Fidelity Fund drop so much in Value?" threads to start popping up. Similar to what happens when funds make capital gains distributions late in the year. I am certain there will be sheer panic in some quarters until they realize they have 10X more shares.
by nedsaid
Thu Aug 09, 2018 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 177
Views: 9145

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

Nedsaid, I'll one thing, what I did in 1998 was clearly market timing, though I only did it personally, not what I recommended to clients who have very different perspectives and understandings and tolerances than I do. I kept my equity allocation the same, but got out of all but value due to valua...
by nedsaid
Thu Aug 09, 2018 4:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 177
Views: 9145

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

This article from today's WSJ relates to this post. Says valuations are actually lower than not too long ago: https://www.wsj.com/articles/valuations-are-slipping-even-as-stocks-hover-near-records-1533812400?mod=hp_lead_pos3 "Despite another robust corporate earnings season, the S&P 500 has inched ...
by nedsaid
Thu Aug 09, 2018 4:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 177
Views: 9145

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

To try to be helpful in clearing things up First, market timing is based on belief that market is either under or overvalued. And you can add value by changing your AA. My suggestsion have literally nothing to do with market timing. It is based on the facts that your NEED to take risk may have chan...
by nedsaid
Thu Aug 09, 2018 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Have Private Reits worked for you?
Replies: 17
Views: 961

Re: Have Private Reits worked for you?

I drove by a local shopping mall the other day and the one end was full of tenants and the other end of the mall was mostly empty. Here we are in a big economic recovery and I still see vacant commercial property. This illustrates the risk you take with REIT investments, which are greater with non-...
by nedsaid
Thu Aug 09, 2018 10:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Advisor
Replies: 11
Views: 768

Re: Vanguard Advisor

By introduction I am 78 and my wife is 71 years of age. Our Vanguard advisor(VA) provided us with his recommendation for a AA of 30(equity) and 70 bonds. The lower equity component is at our request. He also recommended that we liquidate about 7 blue chip stocks that we have held for ver 10 years s...
by nedsaid
Thu Aug 09, 2018 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Have Private Reits worked for you?
Replies: 17
Views: 961

Re: Have Private Reits worked for you?

I drove by a local shopping mall the other day and the one end was full of tenants and the other end of the mall was mostly empty. Here we are in a big economic recovery and I still see vacant commercial property. This illustrates the risk you take with REIT investments, which are greater with non-t...
by nedsaid
Thu Aug 09, 2018 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Longest Bull Market of All-Time?"
Replies: 15
Views: 2328

Re: "The Longest Bull Market of All-Time?"

With regard to stock valuations, there is this article from today's WSJ, making the case that valuations are NOT off-the-chart-high: https://www.wsj.com/articles/valuations-are-slipping-even-as-stocks-hover-near-records-1533812400?mod=hp_lead_pos3 "Despite another robust corporate earnings season, ...
by nedsaid
Thu Aug 09, 2018 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Longest Bull Market of All-Time?"
Replies: 15
Views: 2328

Re: "The Longest Bull Market of All-Time?"

In two weeks we’ll see headlines that we’re in the longest bull market of all-time. Whether you think the bull market starts at the lows or at new highs, remind yourself that we had two resets, because the articles certainly won’t. The Longest Bull Market of All-Time? by Michael Batnick I remember ...
by nedsaid
Thu Aug 09, 2018 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Portfolio Pain Happens
Replies: 49
Views: 4597

Re: Larry Swedroe: Portfolio Pain Happens

I follow the logic 100%. Pretty much, people say that if you wouldn't buy something today that you should sell it. I get that. You pretty much covered one of my main points with the above acknowledgement. As far as the other main point regarding portfolio changes, you are free to change yours every...
by nedsaid
Tue Aug 07, 2018 6:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Age in Bonds" fails almost everyone
Replies: 217
Views: 12507

Re: "Age in Bonds" fails almost everyone

Furthermore, “age in bonds” isn’t bad advice because we’ve been in a bull market: it’s bad advice for any kind of market. It was damn good advice when bonds returned 7-8%! :mrgreen: I remember those days, one of my first purchases with my new Brokerage IRA were 3 zero coupon bonds paying 8%. That w...
by nedsaid
Tue Aug 07, 2018 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New Three Fund Portfolio options for Fidelity Personal Retirement Annuities
Replies: 1
Views: 284

Re: New Three Fund Portfolio options for Fidelity Personal Retirement Annuities

I have been watching this, Fidelity has added more index funds to its Variable Annuity. I have a Variable Annuity and I am thinking about switching it to Fidelity. Lower annuity costs and lower expense ratios on the underlying funds. Will be turning 59 1/2 in a few months and this might be part of a...
by nedsaid
Tue Aug 07, 2018 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Portfolio Pain Happens
Replies: 49
Views: 4597

Re: Larry Swedroe: Portfolio Pain Happens

I follow the logic 100%. Pretty much, people say that if you wouldn't buy something today that you should sell it. I get that. You pretty much covered one of my main points with the above acknowledgement. As far as the other main point regarding portfolio changes, you are free to change yours every...
by nedsaid
Tue Aug 07, 2018 1:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Don't Obsess About Expense Ratios"
Replies: 198
Views: 16317

Re: "Don't Obsess About Expense Ratios"

Pre-Fidelity announcement: "Lowest expense ratio possible is essential!" Post-Fidelity announcement: "Actually, don't worry about them! Stay with Vanguard!" It actually has been fun to watch this thread. Let's face it, there is brand loyalty involved here. A bit of the Chevy vs. Ford, Yankees vs. R...
by nedsaid
Tue Aug 07, 2018 12:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Age in Bonds" fails almost everyone
Replies: 217
Views: 12507

Re: "Age in Bonds" fails almost everyone

I think threads like this have their greatest value in illustrating exactly how far into this bull cycle we really are. The point in having bonds is not because they improve returns, rather, the reduced volatility they provide prevent people from making very expensive behavioral mistakes when thing...
by nedsaid
Tue Aug 07, 2018 12:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Don't Obsess About Expense Ratios"
Replies: 198
Views: 16317

Re: "Don't Obsess About Expense Ratios"

I think it's the ownership style of Vanguard that keeps it more attractive than other companies. We technically own Vanguard because of the way it's structured. Fidelity isn't held to the same standard or has a similar structure. If we technically own Vanguard, how come we can't get Vanguard to do ...
by nedsaid
Mon Aug 06, 2018 12:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Few weeks into new job recieved significantly better offer elsewhere
Replies: 101
Views: 9255

Re: Few weeks into new job recieved significantly better offer elsewhere

^ Responding to the above. I can explain the turnover. Research shows that everything kept equal, skilled employees who changed jobs ended up getting better wage growth. So, the dual of the conclusion is this: employees who did NOT change jobs, ended up getting worse wage growth. Or, in other words...
by nedsaid
Sun Aug 05, 2018 9:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Few weeks into new job recieved significantly better offer elsewhere
Replies: 101
Views: 9255

Re: Few weeks into new job recieved significantly better offer elsewhere

Sadly, loyalty is pretty much out the window. And that is a MASSIVE win for the economy. Except that our economy is based upon trust. When I walk into my bank branch and see all new people each time I visit, that doesn't inspire confidence. When I call a company with a problem to be solved and I ju...
by nedsaid
Sun Aug 05, 2018 7:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Biggest Companies Deserve to be Best?
Replies: 11
Views: 1042

Re: Biggest Companies Deserve to be Best?

I don't know whether Mr. Reckenthaler's numbers are accurate or not. He is talking about the top 1% of market cap stocks and says that is 67 stocks which he equally weights. That implies that the market itself must include 6,700 stocks and the lower 99% collectively produced no positive return at a...
by nedsaid
Sun Aug 05, 2018 7:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Biggest Companies Deserve to be Best?
Replies: 11
Views: 1042

Re: Biggest Companies Deserve to be Best?

Direct quote from John Reckenthaler's article on Morningstar website: "The Biggest Companies Deserve to Be Best" Tuesday's column detailed how, in recent years, blue chips have dominated. An investor in August 2013 who sorted all publicly traded firms by their market caps from largest to smallest, ...
by nedsaid
Sun Aug 05, 2018 7:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are Tencent, Alibaba, etc in international funds?
Replies: 9
Views: 763

Re: Are Tencent, Alibaba, etc in international funds?

When I do the Stock Intersection at Morningstar for my portfolio, I see that Tencent is contained within both Emerging Markets and International Growth type of funds. See the same effect with Alibaba. Both stocks are in Vanguard International Growth and in American EuroPacific Growth funds, two larg...
by nedsaid
Sun Aug 05, 2018 6:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity Files for two Fidelity ZERO℠ Funds (0.00% ER total stock and total international mutual funds)
Replies: 619
Views: 51604

Re: Fidelity Files for two Fidelity ZERO℠ Funds (0.00% ER total stock and total international mutual funds)

Silly question, but how much shorting has to occur in the market to sustain zero fee index funds particularly as an increasing amount of the market is indexed? Someone out there has to be shorting stocks to generate the fees for portfolio lending. Don't know but firms like AQR are probably in large ...
by nedsaid
Sun Aug 05, 2018 6:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg commodities index still in contango
Replies: 82
Views: 6879

Re: Bloomberg commodities index still in contango

still not time to invest in commodities. https://data.bloomberglp.com/promo/sites/12/242616_BCOM-August2018Outlook.pdf see page 15. broad commodities index is in contango of -3.6% which is 1.4% points worse than where it was last month. that being said i still think the situation is worth monitorin...
by nedsaid
Sun Aug 05, 2018 6:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Few weeks into new job recieved significantly better offer elsewhere
Replies: 101
Views: 9255

Re: Few weeks into new job recieved significantly better offer elsewhere

Sadly, loyalty is pretty much out the window. And that is a MASSIVE win for the economy. Except that our economy is based upon trust. When I walk into my bank branch and see all new people each time I visit, that doesn't inspire confidence. When I call a company with a problem to be solved and I ju...
by nedsaid
Sun Aug 05, 2018 4:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Do You Like My New 'Doo
Replies: 153
Views: 30562

Re: How Do You Like My New 'Doo

A new project on my portfolio. I want to take a look at holding periods. As you can see, I have held some of these for a long time. American Century Heritage and International Growth since November 1992. These are my top 21 investments 1. Fidelity® Total Market Index Premium. . . .March 1999. 2. Ame...
by nedsaid
Sun Aug 05, 2018 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity Files for two Fidelity ZERO℠ Funds (0.00% ER total stock and total international mutual funds)
Replies: 619
Views: 51604

Re: Fidelity Files for two Fidelity ZERO℠ Funds (0.00% ER total stock and total international mutual funds)

Certainly the Fidelity Zero funds are a big shot across Vanguard's bow. I can imagine the Fidelity crew yelling over to Vanguard, "Prepare ye to be boarded, ye scurvy scalawags." Let's see how the HMS Vanguard will return fire. This changes things a lot. I have already seen the minimums and the fees...
by nedsaid
Sun Aug 05, 2018 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Portfolio Pain Happens
Replies: 49
Views: 4597

Re: Larry Swedroe: Portfolio Pain Happens

I have a question for folks who tilt their portfolio (e.g., overweight value). Do you have a reliable source of the following: - a value index tracking fund (e.g., VVIAX), -- same for the 'opposite' index, in this case growth (VIGAX), - P/E ratio of the indices over time, - earnings (real) of both ...