Search found 10891 matches

by nedsaid
Mon Jan 21, 2019 6:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Investing Lessons From 2018
Replies: 5
Views: 1305

Re: Larry Swedroe: Investing Lessons From 2018

2018 was a tough year for investors. Pretty much everything was down except for cash. Bond indexes barely were in the black but many bond funds ended the year negative. So diversification worked but not as well as we all had hoped.
by nedsaid
Mon Jan 21, 2019 12:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How long until we see negative ER funds?
Replies: 44
Views: 3175

Re: How long until we see negative ER funds?

afan wrote:
Fri Jan 18, 2019 7:14 am
Article last spring from Alan Roth.

https://www.financial-planning.com/opin ... efficiency
That was a very fine article by Alan Roth. Thank you for posting the link.
by nedsaid
Mon Jan 21, 2019 12:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How long until we see negative ER funds?
Replies: 44
Views: 3175

Re: How long until we see negative ER funds?

I saw an interview with a high ranking Vanguard leader, might have been CEO, a while ago. He was asked whether the index funds expense ratios would go to zero. I cannot quote him from memory but the gist was that Vanguard would always list as the expense ratio what it cost to run the fund. To the e...
by nedsaid
Mon Jan 21, 2019 12:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Allocation and Siamond's "Investing in the World" Series
Replies: 34
Views: 2004

Re: International Allocation and Siamond's "Investing in the World" Series

After skimming Siamonds "Investing in the World" articles, it just makes sense to me that investors should be invested Internationally. It seems that U.S., U.K., and Canadian investors have been pretty fortunate and could have gotten away with being domestic investors only. The world does change tho...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 20, 2019 11:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Jettison QSPIX?
Replies: 26
Views: 1512

Re: Jettison QSPIX?

A 50/50 mix of stocks to bonds has not had a losing 5 year period since the great depression. so i'm not trying to talk you into staying with QSPIX. the above statement may be true in nominal terms. But arguably it is real returns that matter. put another way, there were probably years in the 70s/8...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 20, 2019 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I left Wealthfront
Replies: 61
Views: 15860

Re: Why I left Wealthfront

So, the question that comes up is this, what can a robo advisor do for you that a Target Date Retirement Fund or a Target Risk fund cannot? About the only thing I can think of is tax loss harvesting.
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 20, 2019 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Jettison QSPIX?
Replies: 26
Views: 1512

Re: Jettison QSPIX?

Please advise regarding QSPIX. I purchased this several years ago based on advice on this forum from Larry Swedroe. This is a liquid alternative fund designed to be part of an overall portfolio. It's beta is very low and it is designed to reduce the fat tail risk at either end of the returns curve....
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 20, 2019 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Predicting future Exp. Ratio changes on Vanguard funds...
Replies: 10
Views: 658

Re: Predicting future Exp. Ratio changes on Vanguard funds...

Your prediction will probably fare as well as my prediction that Large Value will come roaring back. I am still waiting.
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 20, 2019 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10165
Views: 1789618

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I have been surprised at the strong market rally since Christmas. It's like Dude, what happen to the bear market?
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 20, 2019 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The NY Times calls us a cult but in a good way
Replies: 62
Views: 6947

Re: The NY Times calls us a cult but in a good way

It was a good article but the Bogleheads are not cultists. There is a variety of opinion here and some spirited disagreements but there are core beliefs that most of us agree on. Yes. That description is insulting. A better description would be a fan club. But then again, I always said that if Mr. ...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 20, 2019 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Fidelity Zero Fund BETTER than Fidelity Expense Ratio Fund
Replies: 58
Views: 5750

Re: Is Fidelity Zero Fund BETTER than Fidelity Expense Ratio Fund

Can Fidelity really raise the fee without a shareholder vote ? Under normal circumstances, a shareholder vote is not required for a fee increase, but these funds are labelled Zero Funds, so it could be argued that adding an expense ratio to the fund is a fundamental change to the character of the F...
by nedsaid
Sat Jan 19, 2019 9:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The NY Times calls us a cult but in a good way
Replies: 62
Views: 6947

Re: The NY Times calls us a cult but in a good way

It was a good article but the Bogleheads are not cultists. There is a variety of opinion here and some spirited disagreements but there are core beliefs that most of us agree on.
by nedsaid
Sat Jan 19, 2019 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Fidelity Zero Fund BETTER than Fidelity Expense Ratio Fund
Replies: 58
Views: 5750

Re: Is Fidelity Zero Fund BETTER than Fidelity Expense Ratio Fund

Plz wrote:
Sat Nov 17, 2018 3:52 am
Could a risk be that they have zero fees now but may end up raising the fee later?
This is one reason I did not switch to the Fidelity Zero Funds. In the real world, really good deals just don't last. This seems to good to be true and thus I would shy away.
by nedsaid
Sat Jan 19, 2019 9:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Fidelity Zero Fund BETTER than Fidelity Expense Ratio Fund
Replies: 58
Views: 5750

Re: Is Fidelity Zero Fund BETTER than Fidelity Expense Ratio Fund

Could a risk be that they have zero fees now but may end up raising the fee later? I don’t think anyone on here can envision Vanguard raising the ER on a broad market index fund. I also don’t think anyone on here would be surprised if Fidelity did so. Can Fidelity really raise the fee without a sha...
by nedsaid
Fri Jan 18, 2019 6:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10165
Views: 1789618

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Please let's not revive this thread, there is correlation every time this thread gains momentum US stocks fall. Market has not recovered yet to recoup my losses from December. :( That tells me that you do not use rebalancing triggers like I do. Did you do any exchanging of fixed income into equitie...
by nedsaid
Fri Jan 18, 2019 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Hedge Funds A Bad Buy
Replies: 7
Views: 512

Re: Larry Swedroe: Hedge Funds A Bad Buy

You would think that with leverage and shorting that hedge fund managers could boost returns and better capture factors. Some probably do but whatever alpha generated is probably eaten up by the fees. Another indication that markets are pretty darned efficient.
by nedsaid
Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle's Obituary From The Family
Replies: 43
Views: 11947

Re: Jack Bogle's Obituary From The Family

It was interesting that Mr. Bogle married his friend's sister. Little did Jack now what would happen when a friend would bring him home to meet family. Interesting how things like that work out.
by nedsaid
Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tributes to Jack Bogle
Replies: 118
Views: 10272

Re: Tributes to Jack Bogle

The question has been asked, who will speak for us? In the absence of Mr. Bogle, I suppose we will have to speak for ourselves. Such a big void has been left by Mr. Bogle that I don't think any one person will replace him. I was just thinking about how much I loved Louis Rukeyser and Wall $treet Wee...
by nedsaid
Wed Jan 16, 2019 11:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle has died at age 89
Replies: 852
Views: 44639

Re: John Bogle has died at age 89

I learned of John Bogle's death watching the Nightly Business Report. I suppose it was fitting that he departed this earth on a day that the stock market was up. If Paul Kangas were still living and anchoring the Nightly Business Report, he would be wishing Mr. Bogle the best of good buys. May God r...
by nedsaid
Wed Jan 16, 2019 11:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Worth Of A Man: A Tribute To John C. Bogle
Replies: 44
Views: 5006

Re: The Worth Of A Man: A Tribute To John C. Bogle

Rick, that was a very nice tribute to the great John Bogle. I think perhaps from now on I might refer to him as St. Jack Bogle. He was truly a great man, one of those rare people with whom I was increasingly impressed with. That is hard to do.
by nedsaid
Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment advisors- is regulatory burden higher on fiduciaries?
Replies: 54
Views: 2647

Re: Investment advisors- is regulatory burden higher on fiduciaries?

If the adviser is charging a 1%, they may be using F-shares from American funds. This class of shares does not carry a load or charge a 12b-1 fee. From the American Funds site : Class F-1, F-2, F-3 and 529-F-1 shares: You pay an asset-based fee for F-1, F-2, F-3 or 529-F-1 shares based on your fina...
by nedsaid
Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When would you stop being a Boglehead?
Replies: 95
Views: 7402

Re: When would you stop being a Boglehead?

I certainly am not a 100% Boglehead. My rather eclectic portfolio shows this, all kinds of things in there. But what I have in common with the folks here is in the belief in lower cost, lower turnover strategies. I have been gradually putting more and more of my portfolio into index funds and index ...
by nedsaid
Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)
Replies: 128
Views: 7425

Re: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)

The increasing irrelevance of book value might be one reason that P/E ratios have been climbing. The market realizes the limitations of accounting and has adjusted for it. I have wondered if earnings have been accurately stated as they don't account for the rising value of intangible assets. Hmm......
by nedsaid
Tue Jan 15, 2019 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Further diversifying the 60/40 portfoilio?
Replies: 29
Views: 3392

Re: Further diversifying the 60/40 portfoilio?

There is the Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio which is a more complex version of the Coffeehouse Portfolio. It is a Small/Value tilted portfolio. Paul Merriman is the author of the Ultimate Buy and Hold portfolio and Bill Shultheis is the author behind the Coffeehouse Portfolio. Take a look ...
by nedsaid
Tue Jan 15, 2019 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Dirt Simple Wins Again. Couch Potato Portfolio"
Replies: 20
Views: 4371

Re: "Dirt Simple Wins Again. Couch Potato Portfolio"

Hard to argue with a three fund portfolio as its returns have been very hard to beat. We have been in a decade where the Value premium seems to have gone away as we have been in a Large Growth stock market. When Large Growth predominates, a three fund portfolio with the "Total" indexes will do bette...
by nedsaid
Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard factor funds slow to catch on
Replies: 86
Views: 10638

Re: Vanguard factor funds slow to catch on

My take is that Vanguard knows what its core business is: ultra cheap index funds and cheap active funds. But they have branched out into such things as factors, Vanguard had its Growth index and Value index funds even when Mr. Bogle was still on the scene. It is a way of gaining institutional exper...
by nedsaid
Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)
Replies: 128
Views: 7425

Re: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)

This is what I have been trying to tell the quants. Actually, I was getting my information from the quants, so I assume they already know. Well, I would certainly hope so. It reminds me of the discussion of P/E 10 and the absolute certitude people have about the numbers and predictive market models...
by nedsaid
Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Clueless About Personal Finance At Age 30: Grew Up Poor, Now Make $400K+. Have No Clue What To Do With Money.
Replies: 29
Views: 5518

Re: Clueless About Personal Finance At Age 30: Grew Up Poor, Now Make $400K+. Have No Clue What To Do With Money.

What I would say here is to stop saying that you are clueless about money. You will have to learn like the rest of us. Unfortunately, your parents did not teach you personal finance skills and they themselves struggled with these issues. You are going to have to take an interest in these things and ...
by nedsaid
Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)
Replies: 128
Views: 7425

Re: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)

A big reason that companies are mostly valued as a multiple of their earnings and not property, plant, equipment, and bank accounts on the balance sheet. How do you value intangibles like patents? Or the franchise value of Microsoft Office? To extend on this, the explanatory power of P/B has been f...
by nedsaid
Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are REITs better to purchase when interest rates are high or low?
Replies: 64
Views: 4346

Re: Are REITs better to purchase when interest rates are high or low?

Is this a new BH philosophy? Don't time the market with stocks but do it with REITs? It appears to me it is ok to time the bond market, and now the REIT market as well. At least based on the postings on this board. However, you can't time the stock market, but valuations do matter.... :oops: ' Well...
by nedsaid
Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)
Replies: 128
Views: 7425

Re: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)

It's not possible to overstate earnings year after year after year without creating a massive gap between book value and true value over the course of many years. Oh yes it is. Microsoft has a book value of $9 per share. The stock market values Microsoft at $102 a share. Is market value the true va...
by nedsaid
Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)
Replies: 128
Views: 7425

Re: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)

It's not possible to overstate earnings year after year after year without creating a massive gap between book value and true value over the course of many years. Oh yes it is. Microsoft has a book value of $9 per share. The stock market values Microsoft at $102 a share. Is market value the true va...
by nedsaid
Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:25 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio HELP - time to stop the bleeding from AUM fee
Replies: 34
Views: 2383

Re: Portfolio HELP - time to stop the bleeding from AUM fee

BL and retiredjg - Your feedback makes sense. Sounds like we're going to have to do some work to find the best way to unravel the mess our advisor created for us. :( We'll look into the dividend/capital gains distributions on our 2018 1099-div when available. But as you suggest might be best just t...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 13, 2019 8:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Roast my portfolio. VEMAX instead of VTIAX?
Replies: 20
Views: 1516

Re: Roast my portfolio. VEMAX instead of VTIAX?

The most important question to ask the original poster is if he or she has written up an Investment Policy Statement. In other words, is there a strategy behind this? A few things I can tease out. 1) the original poster believes in very low-cost funds. 2) the original poster likes dividend growth. T...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 13, 2019 8:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio HELP - time to stop the bleeding from AUM fee
Replies: 34
Views: 2383

Re: Portfolio HELP - time to stop the bleeding from AUM fee

in my opinion, .47% management fee is not too high at all unless you have other hidden costs not listed. With your investment size and incomes, there might be some more services needed in addition to balancing your portfolio each year. Your advisor may be able to provide services such as taxes mana...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 13, 2019 8:28 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bogleheads Drink Up! [Bogle Vineyards Wine]
Replies: 35
Views: 9113

Re: Bogleheads Drink Up! [Bogle Vineyards Wine]

This thread is now in the Personal Consumer Issues forum (wine). I also retitled the thread. Yes, I've had the wine. Not bad. Whew. That was a relief. I thought the wine was going to get taken away just as the discussion was getting going! (Thread lock). The fun had here was not too much or too row...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 13, 2019 8:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I know market timing is a fool's game but...
Replies: 59
Views: 4736

Re: I know market timing is a fool's game but...

For most people, market timing is a fool's game. The vast majority buy high and sell low based on emotion. This has been proven. That being said, I do believe in reducing my stock allocation after a long bull market and increasing it after stock prices have fallen significantly. I have done this in...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 13, 2019 8:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)
Replies: 128
Views: 7425

Re: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)

It's not possible to overstate earnings year after year after year without creating a massive gap between book value and true value over the course of many years. Oh yes it is. Microsoft has a book value of $9 per share. The stock market values Microsoft at $102 a share. Is market value the true va...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 13, 2019 8:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Roast my portfolio. VEMAX instead of VTIAX?
Replies: 20
Views: 1516

Re: Roast my portfolio. VEMAX instead of VTIAX?

If you are committed to a Dividend Growth strategy, why not find a similar fund on the International side? That would be nice--I don't think one exists in the vanguard universe though. There is DGRE with an expense ratio of 0.32%. I am just raising the question to see if you have thought all of thi...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 13, 2019 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Roast my portfolio. VEMAX instead of VTIAX?
Replies: 20
Views: 1516

Re: Roast my portfolio. VEMAX instead of VTIAX?

I'm designing a 3-fund 65/35 early-retirement portfolio that will live in a taxable account. 55% VDADX (Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Index Admiral) 10% VEMAX (Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index Admiral) 35% VBTLX (Vanguard Total Bond Index Admiral) VDADX - chosen instead of VTSAX (Vanguard Tot...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 13, 2019 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I know market timing is a fool's game but...
Replies: 59
Views: 4736

Re: I know market timing is a fool's game but...

We're now in the 115th month without a recession. The record set in the 90's was 120 months. December was the worst month for equities since the Great Depression. Sounds like the Fed is worried enough to pause interest rate hikes. I tell people they shouldn't worry about timing but it's hard not to...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 13, 2019 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity Zero Funds
Replies: 33
Views: 1935

Re: Fidelity Zero Funds

As mentioned in the other threads, I split my US Stock position at Fidelity on August 6th, I believe the 2nd day that the zero funds were available. Here's where they stand as of close Friday: FSKAX: $308,224.29 FZROX: $308,295.85 So far, so good. I own FSKAX, which is the low-fee version of the Fi...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 13, 2019 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Roast my portfolio. VEMAX instead of VTIAX?
Replies: 20
Views: 1516

Re: Roast my portfolio. VEMAX instead of VTIAX?

I'm designing a 3-fund 65/35 early-retirement portfolio that will live in a taxable account. 55% VDADX (Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Index Admiral) 10% VEMAX (Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index Admiral) 35% VBTLX (Vanguard Total Bond Index Admiral) VDADX - chosen instead of VTSAX (Vanguard Tot...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 13, 2019 12:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How would you interpret this comment from boss about possible redundancy package?
Replies: 8
Views: 1092

Re: How would you interpret this comment from boss about possible redundancy package?

8foot7 wrote:
Sun Jan 13, 2019 8:21 am
The fact your boss mentioned a package would be in your best interest is all you need to know.
Unfortunately, I would agree. Take the money and run. They have already decided to let you go.
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 13, 2019 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)
Replies: 128
Views: 7425

Re: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)

Good points. What I wanted to point out is that there is not a universal agreement about the definition of Emerging Markets or agreement about which countries should be included. Still hard for me to rate the number two economy in the world as an Emerging Market but given your arguments I too would...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 13, 2019 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The case for China A-Shares
Replies: 22
Views: 1498

Re: The case for China A-Shares

There is this tendency to see the Chinese government as this big boogeyman that is out to get us, including the small investor. There is a grain of truth to this idea. You might ask their neighbors or explore the issue of free navigation on the high seas. Also issues of lack of respect for intellec...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 13, 2019 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)
Replies: 128
Views: 7425

Re: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)

China, which has the second largest economy in the world, how can that be an Emerging market? It is not about the country, nor the companies. It is because the market is of poor quality. Market regulators, institutions, reporting standards, independency of boards, etc. are weak. There are issues wi...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 13, 2019 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question - Took the Leap - Fired My Financial Advisor
Replies: 2
Views: 645

Re: Question - Took the Leap - Fired My Financial Advisor

Hi Everyone! I'm new to Bogleheads .... after reading the forum for awhile, I decided I could manage my assets better and stop paying the high management fees ... especially since the portfolio was hemorrhaging ... I couldn't bear paying my financial advisor who did not "actively" manage my portfol...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 13, 2019 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)
Replies: 128
Views: 7425

Re: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)

My take is that I want "Tiger in the Tank" investments in my portfolio. Stuff like US Small-Value, Emerging Markets, REITs, US Micro-Caps, International Mid/Small-Cap. That is, I want volatile and riskier investments in my portfolio that can boost returns but with more risk. Over time, these asset c...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 13, 2019 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity Zero Funds
Replies: 33
Views: 1935

Re: Fidelity Zero Funds

The case against Fidelity Zero funds is very mild indeed. I own the Fidelity Total Stock Market Index but not the Zero version. First, I thought the Zero funds were gimmicky. Just something in me is suspicious of free stuff, I think of the "free" vacations from time share companies. It seems like th...