Search found 10985 matches

by nedsaid
Mon Feb 18, 2019 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is higher deficit not leading to higher interest rates?
Replies: 70
Views: 3150

Re: Why is higher deficit not leading to higher interest rates?

Another reason that mild deflation restricts the economy is that employees would not be willing to take pay cuts as the currency appreciated even though their purchasing power would be the same. Other posters have mentioned that deflation incentivizes delaying purchases because my dollar can buy mor...
by nedsaid
Mon Feb 18, 2019 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is higher deficit not leading to higher interest rates?
Replies: 70
Views: 3150

Re: Why is higher deficit not leading to higher interest rates?

Well, what happened was that farmers couldn't borrow. Money was sound and at that time it was based on the gold standard. Sometimes you couldn't mine gold fast enough to provide enough new money to back a growing economy. Money in an economy is like lubricant to an engine, not enough lubrication an...
by nedsaid
Mon Feb 18, 2019 2:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is higher deficit not leading to higher interest rates?
Replies: 70
Views: 3150

Re: Why is higher deficit not leading to higher interest rates?

Nedsaid is correct - US national debt literally means we’ve amassed this much wealth/fortune since the beginning of this nation. Just remember this equation: US government debt == US treasury == all US dollars Uncle Sam issued so far == collective wealth held by all people who are in possession of ...
by nedsaid
Mon Feb 18, 2019 1:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is higher deficit not leading to higher interest rates?
Replies: 70
Views: 3150

Re: Why is higher deficit not leading to higher interest rates?

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=n0Va That's a chart showing the 10 year treasury rate, the fed funds rate, and the debt/GDP ratio (scaled down by 10 to make the graph easier to read). I don't see any relationship between the debt and the interest rates. This is what one of my economics profess...
by nedsaid
Mon Feb 18, 2019 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is higher deficit not leading to higher interest rates?
Replies: 70
Views: 3150

Re: Why is higher deficit not leading to higher interest rates?

One thing I have wondered, and I don't recall explicitly hearing this, is that these days consumer good inflation is being displaced by asset inflation. Asset inflation is not traditionally considered inflation because it is investment. But when you have a greater disparity of income and wealth, co...
by nedsaid
Mon Feb 18, 2019 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Customer Service is Horrible
Replies: 65
Views: 5355

Re: Vanguard Customer Service is Horrible

Vanguard is a great company for its products, but its customer service is only o.k. And Vanguard first level reps seem to not know anything beyond the 5th grade level. They can handle routine issues, but not non-routine ones. It appears that those who are satisfied with Vanguard service only contac...
by nedsaid
Mon Feb 18, 2019 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is higher deficit not leading to higher interest rates?
Replies: 70
Views: 3150

Re: Why is higher deficit not leading to higher interest rates?

I want to make it clear that national wealth isn't created just by running up Government debt. Money is backed up in large part by the productivity of the economy. The strong currencies are those of the most productive economies in the world.
by nedsaid
Mon Feb 18, 2019 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is higher deficit not leading to higher interest rates?
Replies: 70
Views: 3150

Re: Why is higher deficit not leading to higher interest rates?

And the experts don't know. There's a danger point when real interest rates exceed the real growth in GDP. Then, in principle, the debt can grow without limit - just the compounding of interest. Debt to GDP has risen to unprecedented levels across the world post 2009. *However* it is private debt t...
by nedsaid
Mon Feb 18, 2019 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is higher deficit not leading to higher interest rates?
Replies: 70
Views: 3150

Re: Why is higher deficit not leading to higher interest rates?

The world savings glut is mentioned here and it is a chicken and egg thing. Could it be that an aging population suppresses economic growth and tax revenues but that old people cost a lot of money to take care of? Again, if you believe in the sectoral balances argument mentioned above, the deficit s...
by nedsaid
Mon Feb 18, 2019 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is higher deficit not leading to higher interest rates?
Replies: 70
Views: 3150

Re: Why is higher deficit not leading to higher interest rates?

If you believe in sectoral balances, public sector deficits equal private sector surpluses. We saw evidence of this as the savings rate was actually zero to negative when the US ran budget surpluses during the Clinton Administration. When the Obama Administration ran huge deficits early on to comba...
by nedsaid
Mon Feb 18, 2019 10:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is higher deficit not leading to higher interest rates?
Replies: 70
Views: 3150

Re: Why is higher deficit not leading to higher interest rates?

To the extent nominal interest rates are driven by inflation, globalization technology and automation have helped to keep a lid on inflation While the US does not accrue a lot of personal savings, some others do, such as east Asian countries. Between the comparatively stronger US economy, the dolla...
by nedsaid
Mon Feb 18, 2019 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is higher deficit not leading to higher interest rates?
Replies: 70
Views: 3150

Re: Why is higher deficit not leading to higher interest rates?

(Baffled) Why is this thread looking for reasons why we are not seeing higher interest rates, when we are? I moved some money into a local bank's 2.5% 20-month CD just last week. Ten-year rate is pushing 3%. https://imgur.com/pfOB6cA.png Total Bond SEC yield is over 3%. https://imgur.com/3hTnd8J.pn...
by nedsaid
Mon Feb 18, 2019 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is higher deficit not leading to higher interest rates?
Replies: 70
Views: 3150

Re: Why is higher deficit not leading to higher interest rates?

To the extent nominal interest rates are driven by inflation, globalization technology and automation have helped to keep a lid on inflation While the US does not accrue a lot of personal savings, some others do, such as east Asian countries. Between the comparatively stronger US economy, the dolla...
by nedsaid
Mon Feb 18, 2019 2:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is higher deficit not leading to higher interest rates?
Replies: 70
Views: 3150

Re: Why is higher deficit not leading to higher interest rates?

If a person or a business continues to spend more than their income they are in a higher risk pool. And their subsequent borrowing usually will be at a higher interest rate. Why doesn’t that happen with US deficit? Is it due to the full faith and credit of the US government? But wouldn’t we run out...
by nedsaid
Mon Feb 18, 2019 1:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffet's Betas: What Individual Investors Can Learn From Buffett
Replies: 36
Views: 2037

Re: Researchers Have Cracked Warren Buffet's Code?

My question is this: if the researchers have cracked Buffett's code, where is their Berkshire-Hathaway? I have made similar comments about Larry Swedroe and his book about Buffett. Larry's accomplishments, though considerable, do not include his own insurance conglomerate.
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 17, 2019 1:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Charlie Munger: Teaching young people to actively trade stocks is like starting them on heroin
Replies: 52
Views: 4494

Re: Charlie Munger: Teaching young people to actively trade stocks is like starting them on heroin

Nobody's pounding on anything. At least not over here. We are talking past each other. My only point is the average investor is not any of the many companies above you mention and will eventually bring trouble to themselves through active investing. If you do not understand systems you will not und...
by nedsaid
Sat Feb 16, 2019 10:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Charlie Munger: Teaching young people to actively trade stocks is like starting them on heroin
Replies: 52
Views: 4494

Re: Charlie Munger: Teaching young people to actively trade stocks is like starting them on heroin

Stock picking isn't so bad , it is the constant trading of stocks that gets you. Munger and Buffett both pick stocks and entire businesses, but they have a long term perspective as business owners and not traders. My thesis is that stock picking can work but even if you do a good job at it, the odd...
by nedsaid
Sat Feb 16, 2019 10:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The WORST Morningstar Style Category In 2018
Replies: 34
Views: 2786

Re: The WORST Morningstar Style Category In 2018

The point is that factor investing may be just artifact of retrospective data. I don't think so. Even my untrained eye could see that stocks with different characteristics performed differently from each other. I have known about low-beta stocks for a long time, remember seeing this stat in the Val...
by nedsaid
Sat Feb 16, 2019 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The WORST Morningstar Style Category In 2018
Replies: 34
Views: 2786

Re: The WORST Morningstar Style Category In 2018

Taylor, Small Cap Value is doing well this year in 2019. What's your point? "Don't look for the needle. Buy the haystack." Best wishes. Taylor Taylor, I have a slight tilt to Small Cap Value, it is 6% of my stocks compared to 2% for the US Total Stock Market Index. 16% of my stocks are Small Cap vs...
by nedsaid
Sat Feb 16, 2019 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The WORST Morningstar Style Category In 2018
Replies: 34
Views: 2786

Re: The WORST Morningstar Style Category In 2018

The point is that factor investing may be just artifact of retrospective data. I don't think so. Even my untrained eye could see that stocks with different characteristics performed differently from each other. I have known about low-beta stocks for a long time, remember seeing this stat in the Val...
by nedsaid
Sat Feb 16, 2019 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 3 Factor Investing Myths
Replies: 42
Views: 3779

Re: Larry Swedroe: 3 Factor Investing Myths

Couple thoughts 1. What makes value so intriguing to me is that there are both strong risk based and behavioral based reasons to expect it to persist. Even if factor premia get over grazed, they may shrink in size but not necessarily get eradicated. Maybe rational to assume a 1/4-1/3 haircut in the...
by nedsaid
Sat Feb 16, 2019 10:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The WORST Morningstar Style Category In 2018
Replies: 34
Views: 2786

Re: The WORST Morningstar Style Category In 2018

What I found interesting was the suggestion that the majority of retirement funds should be placed in SCV funds. The rationale was that since 1970 this fund area has the highest yields and lowest risk. I assume - but maybe incorrectly - that this fund area also has the highest fees that would drag ...
by nedsaid
Sat Feb 16, 2019 9:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Charlie Munger: Teaching young people to actively trade stocks is like starting them on heroin
Replies: 52
Views: 4494

Re: Charlie Munger: Teaching young people to actively trade stocks is like starting them on heroin

Stock picking isn't so bad , it is the constant trading of stocks that gets you. Munger and Buffett both pick stocks and entire businesses, but they have a long term perspective as business owners and not traders. My thesis is that stock picking can work but even if you do a good job at it, the odd...
by nedsaid
Fri Feb 15, 2019 3:29 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity Strategic Advisor Portfolio Management
Replies: 25
Views: 3668

Re: Fidelity Strategic Advisor Portfolio Management

Good morning, I have a question regarding Fidelity's investment Management plans. The gist of a conversation with a Fidelity representative this morning was: (1) the Stock Market is likely headed for a downward correction (2) You can either time the market yourself by buying stocks during a downtur...
by nedsaid
Fri Feb 15, 2019 3:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Charlie Munger: Teaching young people to actively trade stocks is like starting them on heroin
Replies: 52
Views: 4494

Re: Charlie Munger: Teaching young people to actively trade stocks is like starting them on heroin

Stock picking isn't so bad, it is the constant trading of stocks that gets you. Munger and Buffett both pick stocks and entire businesses, but they have a long term perspective as business owners and not traders. My thesis is that stock picking can work but even if you do a good job at it, the odds ...
by nedsaid
Fri Feb 15, 2019 3:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 3 Factor Investing Myths
Replies: 42
Views: 3779

Re: Larry Swedroe: 3 Factor Investing Myths

I also point out that the better indexes like the S&P indexes screen out most of the "anti-factors" like lottery stocks and value traps. In other words, the better indexes screen out the worst stocks. You might be better off avoiding the bad stocks rather than trying to capture the best stocks by f...
by nedsaid
Thu Feb 14, 2019 10:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 3 Factor Investing Myths
Replies: 42
Views: 3779

Re: Larry Swedroe: 3 Factor Investing Myths

https://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-3-factor-investing-myths?nopaging=1 The solution to the potential problem of a factor’s underperformance is not to avoid factors. It is to diversify across them. I can't seem to get my head around why a Total Stock Market index isn't also a...
by nedsaid
Mon Feb 11, 2019 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Don’t Compare Your Investment Returns With Others (Especially On The Internet)"
Replies: 34
Views: 3414

Re: "Don’t Compare Your Investment Returns With Others (Especially On The Internet)"

"Most people" on the internet have a perfect ten model wife, mid six figure income, several 10 baggers a year on the NYSE, children who ace the SAT and get scholarships from 2-4 IVY league schools, and run marathons quarterly. The rest of us will simply have to make due with what we have. Yes, in L...
by nedsaid
Mon Feb 11, 2019 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Index Investing Just Betting on The U.S Economy?
Replies: 46
Views: 5149

Re: Is Index Investing Just Betting on The U.S Economy?

billthecat wrote: Why can’t Japan fix itself? Very good question. The simple answer which may or may not be the entire story is that Japan's bubble in real estate and stocks reached levels in the late 1980s that have not been reached by any other bubble in centuries. The Nikkei Stock Index went fro...
by nedsaid
Mon Feb 11, 2019 11:48 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What is a Boglehead funeral/burial?
Replies: 153
Views: 8149

Re: What is a Boglehead funeral/burial?

Boglehead Funeral 1. Professionally drawn up will/trust in place and ready to be executed. 2. Allocation and portfolio glide path projections in place. 3. Funeral/burial, and other end of life/post life expenses taken care of. 4. Everything in balance and at peace. These are my thoughts too. I have...
by nedsaid
Mon Feb 11, 2019 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In defense of Hedge Funds
Replies: 28
Views: 2408

Re: In defense of Hedge Funds

I have a lot of respect for people running hedge funds and those like Cliff Asness who run the Liquid Alt funds. What they are doing is quite hard to do, it is a huge intellectual challenge even with the aid of superfast computers. Cliff admits that there are others better than him at this game but ...
by nedsaid
Mon Feb 11, 2019 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In defense of Hedge Funds
Replies: 28
Views: 2408

Re: In defense of Hedge Funds

Doubtless, there are folks out there who have succeeded running hedge funds but there are some issues here. First, not so easy for individuals to invest as these funds have very high investment minimums. Second, there are the Liquid Alts that use shorts and leverage that are available through adviso...
by nedsaid
Mon Feb 11, 2019 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: No Point To Timing Factors
Replies: 16
Views: 1443

Re: Larry Swedroe: No Point To Timing Factors

Market timing is difficult because the market anticipates or at least tries to anticipate the future. Pretty much you have to outguess the other market participants and you also have the being right too early problem. In the days of Math PhDs and 24-7 computing and number crunching with powerful sof...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 10, 2019 8:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What index stocks are on undervalued now? What site do people use to determine this?
Replies: 27
Views: 2358

Re: What index stocks are on "sale" now? What site do people use to determine this?

I understand that US stocks are widely considered overpriced right now. I also understand that international and emerging stocks are possibly undervalued right now. i.e. stocks revert to the mean. 1. Is this generally true? 2. What other stocks are on sale right now? 3. What web sites do people use...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 10, 2019 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What index stocks are on undervalued now? What site do people use to determine this?
Replies: 27
Views: 2358

Re: What index stocks are on "sale" now? What site do people use to determine this?

I understand that US stocks are widely considered overpriced right now. I also understand that international and emerging stocks are possibly undervalued right now. i.e. stocks revert to the mean. 1. Is this generally true? 2. What other stocks are on sale right now? 3. What web sites do people use...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 10, 2019 1:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How "Safe" is Your Bond Fund?
Replies: 43
Views: 4012

Re: How "Safe" is Your Bond Fund?

For me, bond funds are "unsafe" because their share price fluctuates and, unlike buying bonds directly and holding them to maturity, there's not a thing you can do about it. That said, I still have a small percentage of my portfolio in them, but I view them as less "safe" than CDs, Tbills, and the ...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 10, 2019 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VNQI (Global ex-US Real Estate): Is this a bargain or not?
Replies: 7
Views: 1318

Re: VNQI (Global ex-US Real Estate): Is this a bargain or not?

PE 8.2. PB .82! VNQI has had much more attractive valuations than VNQ for way more than a decade but in spite of that VNQ has massively outperformed it. But these numbers are outrageous and they come from Vanguard which is a reputable firm. They are also much better than VWO, VXUS, and VSS which pr...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 10, 2019 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: T Rowe Price?
Replies: 29
Views: 3082

Re: T Rowe Price?

I have a very high regard for T Rowe Price as a company and as a place to invest. Admired them for years but never invested there. I watched Brian Rogers as a panelist on Wall $treet Week for years. Larry Swedroe and Paul Merriman have said nice things about them. They have excellent active funds bu...
by nedsaid
Sat Feb 09, 2019 11:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Steve Vernon - Money for Life
Replies: 3
Views: 1321

Re: Steve Vernon - Money for Life

I have looked through some of Steve Vernon's posts in this 16 week series and thought the material here was worthwhile for Bogleheads to read. Giving a boost to Bob's thread here. Hopefully some folks will look through this material and benefit.
by nedsaid
Sat Feb 09, 2019 10:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 2018 Report Card For Hedge Funds
Replies: 1
Views: 373

Re: Larry Swedroe: 2018 Report Card For Hedge Funds

Wow. The good old fashioned 60% stock/40% bond balanced portfolio still looks pretty darned good. The thing is, we don't know exactly why it works so well but it does. Interesting that hedge funds don't do any better job than a cheap and simple balanced portfolio.
by nedsaid
Sat Feb 09, 2019 10:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tributes to Jack Bogle
Replies: 151
Views: 14791

Re: "John Bogle. RIP"

There can't be enough tributes to John C. Bogle, or Jack as he liked to be called. He was a fine human being and will be very much missed. Sad that I didn't ever get to meet him.
by nedsaid
Sat Feb 09, 2019 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness - Looking for the Intuition Underlying Multi-Factor Stock Selection
Replies: 13
Views: 957

Re: AQR/Asness - Looking for the Intuition Underlying Multi-Factor Stock Selection

AQR had a disappointing 2018. There are different ways of looking at this. First, the markets as a whole were disappointing and only money markets did fairly well. The Total Bond Indexes were barely in the black and many bonds were actually down a bit. For example, TIPS were down. Second, you could...
by nedsaid
Sat Feb 09, 2019 11:16 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity ZERO YTD Performance
Replies: 29
Views: 3554

Re: Fidelity ZERO YTD Performance

FZILX has about 2300 holdings vs FTIHX's 4300. The good thing about tracking error is it can go up or down though. I wouldn't hold either in taxable due to recent capital gains distributions. 2,300 stocks is one heck of a sample. I think the statisticians would tell you that with such a large sampl...
by nedsaid
Sat Feb 09, 2019 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness - Looking for the Intuition Underlying Multi-Factor Stock Selection
Replies: 13
Views: 957

Re: AQR/Asness - Looking for the Intuition Underlying Multi-Factor Stock Selection

AQR had a disappointing 2018. There are different ways of looking at this. First, the markets as a whole were disappointing and only money markets did fairly well. The Total Bond Indexes were barely in the black and many bonds were actually down a bit. For example, TIPS were down. Second, you could...
by nedsaid
Sat Feb 09, 2019 9:58 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How To Invest Now and Best Limit Risk of Big Recession Loss
Replies: 19
Views: 1972

Re: How To Invest Now and Best Limit Risk of Big Recession Loss

The problem with your strategy is that the market anticipates future events or at least tries too. Stocks may fall in anticipation of a recession and actually rise when the recession arrives. Hard to know how far ahead exactly the markets are looking. This last market correction was in anticipation ...
by nedsaid
Sat Feb 09, 2019 9:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness - Looking for the Intuition Underlying Multi-Factor Stock Selection
Replies: 13
Views: 957

Re: AQR/Asness - Looking for the Intuition Underlying Multi-Factor Stock Selection

AQR had a disappointing 2018. There are different ways of looking at this. First, the markets as a whole were disappointing and only money markets did fairly well. The Total Bond Indexes were barely in the black and many bonds were actually down a bit. For example, TIPS were down. Second, you could ...
by nedsaid
Sat Feb 09, 2019 9:32 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity ZERO YTD Performance
Replies: 29
Views: 3554

Re: Fidelity ZERO YTD Performance

FZILX has about 2300 holdings vs FTIHX's 4300. The good thing about tracking error is it can go up or down though. I wouldn't hold either in taxable due to recent capital gains distributions. 2,300 stocks is one heck of a sample. I think the statisticians would tell you that with such a large sampl...
by nedsaid
Sat Feb 09, 2019 9:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Understanding The Disposition Effect
Replies: 25
Views: 1734

Re: Larry Swedroe: Understanding The Disposition Effect

This (the disposition effect) temporarily pushes down current prices and leads to higher subsequent returns when future prices revert to their fundamental values. Yes, this makes some sense. Problem is, if this is happening, the institutions are doing this. Bad behavior by individuals owning indivi...
by nedsaid
Sat Feb 09, 2019 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Understanding The Disposition Effect
Replies: 25
Views: 1734

Re: Larry Swedroe: Understanding The Disposition Effect

How does selling winners too soon and holding onto losers too long explain momentum? A better explanation of momentum is performance chasing. Another problem I have with this article is that institutions hold the vast majority of securities and do the vast majority of the trading. Institutions have ...
by nedsaid
Thu Feb 07, 2019 9:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%
Replies: 302
Views: 21394

Re: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%

I feel the same way. The fact that real returns since 1992 (27 years is closing in on 'long-term' IMHO) have slightly exceeded that of the prior 60+ years in spite of valuations having been higher since 1992 makes it seem to me that traditional valuation metrics are missing something. Even if it's ...