Search found 10291 matches

by nedsaid
Mon Oct 22, 2018 10:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond Market Fund - interest rates rising!
Replies: 116
Views: 10792

Re: Total Bond Market Fund - interest rates rising!

So I've seen plenty of people here and in the media warn about bond funds "crashing" when interest rates rise. Just because I was curious, I checked Total Bond Market Index Fund since 12/14/2016 to today. Why did I pick 12/14/2016? Because the Fed raised interest rates 0.25% on that day. In fact, i...
by nedsaid
Mon Oct 22, 2018 10:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's Your Fixed Income Strategy?
Replies: 23
Views: 1462

Re: What's Your Fixed Income Strategy?

I invest in Investment Grade, Intermediate Term Bond funds. Also include some TIPS and a bit of International Bonds. I have very little high yield "junk" in my portfolio.
by nedsaid
Mon Oct 22, 2018 10:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dividend Growth Funds
Replies: 7
Views: 743

Re: Dividend Growth Funds

It is a better time now to pursue a dividend strategy. Interest rates are rising and all that yield chasing that we saw in the aftermath of the 2008-2009 financial crisis is over. Valuations on such things as REITs, Low-Volatility Stocks, High Dividend, and Dividend Growth have all improved. Not rin...
by nedsaid
Mon Oct 22, 2018 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: American Century Small Cap ASVIX
Replies: 16
Views: 720

Re: American Century Small Cap ASVIX

If you look at the actual performance of the fund vs the Vanguard small cap value fund (VISVX), ASVIX outperformed significantly from 1998 to today but the funds have almost the same performance in the last 10 or so years. It would not be my first choice for small cap or small cap value funds but b...
by nedsaid
Mon Oct 22, 2018 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: American Century Small Cap ASVIX
Replies: 16
Views: 720

Re: American Century Small Cap ASVIX

1.26% expense ratio, 90% turnover (which adds roughly 0.9% hidden trading cost to the expense), almost half the fund is mid-cap rather than small-cap. Not my cup of tea. American Beacon's AVPAX is a bit better, 1.13% ER and 48% turnover, with 67% exposure to small-cap. If you don't mind ETFs, a cou...
by nedsaid
Mon Oct 22, 2018 11:15 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Why are Carbon Offset Credits so cheap?
Replies: 61
Views: 3024

Re: Why are Carbon Offset Credits so cheap?

I know the Economist Magazine believes in all of this stuff but I have my doubts. First, the earth has been warmer than it is now, during the time of the Roman Empire, and history seems to show that civilization thrived. Second, the warming that we saw might have just been an emergence from the "Lit...
by nedsaid
Mon Oct 22, 2018 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 50 Stocks Enough to Diversify Idiosyncratic Risk?
Replies: 26
Views: 1620

Re: 50 Stocks Enough to Diversify Idiosyncratic Risk?

The smaller the market cap of the stocks, more are needed. The Dow 30 has managed just fine with 30 large cap stocks. If you owned 50 large caps, you probably have something close to half the market covered by market cap, and they would predominately be the larger, well established, lower risk comp...
by nedsaid
Mon Oct 22, 2018 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: American Century Small Cap ASVIX
Replies: 16
Views: 720

Re: American Century Small Cap ASVIX

1.26% expense ratio, 90% turnover (which adds roughly 0.9% hidden trading cost to the expense), almost half the fund is mid-cap rather than small-cap. Not my cup of tea. American Beacon's AVPAX is a bit better, 1.13% ER and 48% turnover, with 67% exposure to small-cap. If you don't mind ETFs, a cou...
by nedsaid
Mon Oct 22, 2018 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA small value... acitve management?
Replies: 58
Views: 2756

Re: DFA small value... acitve management?

(Shrug) DFA funds are mildly active, in a gentle sort of way. That is why none of them call themselves "index funds." I don't see why there should be any mystery about this except that people want to obfuscate the issue. Their "patient trading" technique is also mildly active, they do some market t...
by nedsaid
Mon Oct 22, 2018 12:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 50 Stocks Enough to Diversify Idiosyncratic Risk?
Replies: 26
Views: 1620

Re: 50 Stocks Enough to Diversify Idiosyncratic Risk?

How do you pick the 20 or 50 stocks? I wonder if anyone has run the numbers of the return over 30 years of the worst performing 50 stocks of the S&P? The results of "monkeys throwing darts" at a list of stocks implies that it probably doesn't matter much how you select them, provided they're suffic...
by nedsaid
Sun Oct 21, 2018 8:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 50 Stocks Enough to Diversify Idiosyncratic Risk?
Replies: 26
Views: 1620

Re: 50 Stocks Enough to Diversify Idiosyncratic Risk?

"Investors need to hold only a small portion of the market to achieve market-like levels of diversification. According to a group of scholars that includes investment guru Burton Malkiel, in years past "[a] conventional rule of thumb...[was] that a portfolio of 20 stocks [attained] a large fraction...
by nedsaid
Sun Oct 21, 2018 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: American Century Small Cap ASVIX
Replies: 16
Views: 720

Re: American Century Small Cap ASVIX

Yes, this is a good fund. 4 star rating from Morningstar having had consistently good performance. There are alternatives available. I own the Vanguard Small Cap Value ETF and the S&P 600 Small Value ETF as well and those are cheaper and probably better. I have eyed this American Century Fund for a ...
by nedsaid
Sun Oct 21, 2018 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US Large Cap Value - valuation?
Replies: 16
Views: 982

Re: US Large Cap Value - valuation?

I have been pounding the table for Large Value for probably three years now. Large Growth has been outperforming Large Value for a decade now and something tells me the worm will turn. But the markets stubbornly refuse to listen to me and the Large Growth trend could continue for a while. My educate...
by nedsaid
Sun Oct 21, 2018 12:02 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Why are Carbon Offset Credits so cheap?
Replies: 61
Views: 3024

Re: Why are Carbon Offset Credits so cheap?

I don't worry about this at all. When I see people who really push this get into energy efficient homes and quit flying their private jets all over the world, then I will take this more seriously. Pretty much a case of do what I say, not what I do. Actually, the United States has done a good job on ...
by nedsaid
Sun Oct 21, 2018 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dividend Growth Funds
Replies: 7
Views: 743

Re: Dividend Growth Funds

I think Dividend Growth is a good strategy. T Rowe Price is also a very good fund company. I don't think you can go too far wrong with this strategy and this fund but I wonder if this will beat the market in the future. Also keep in mind there are cheaper alternatives like Vanguard.
by nedsaid
Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Active Isn’t All Bad
Replies: 7
Views: 932

Re: Larry Swedroe: Active Isn’t All Bad

The interesting part of the recent study is where the investigator created pairs of active and passive funds with similar goals and similar expense ratios. I haven't read the article yet, but I'm going to be curious to see where they found an active fund and a passive fund with similar expense rati...
by nedsaid
Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are bonds the Maginot Line of Modern Investing?
Replies: 42
Views: 3625

Re: Are bonds the Maginot Line of Modern Investing?

I do agree that inflation is something to worry about. It's the one thing I'm not fully prepared for, and the only thing I still somewhat worry about. I think a short-term bond fund, or a short-term CD ladder offers some protection again inflation, correct? We do buy $10,000 of i-bonds every year. ...
by nedsaid
Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7401
Views: 1553965

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

letsgobobby wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:25 am
And this was the thread I was trying to link.

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=253655
Yes, that thread helps make the point about market breadth.
by nedsaid
Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Active Isn’t All Bad
Replies: 7
Views: 932

Re: Larry Swedroe: Active Isn’t All Bad

https://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-active-isnt-all-bad?nopaging=1 Larry starts out the article with a John Bogle quote: “Stock picking pros aren’t stupid. They’re just expensive.” The article begins with a review of recent publications from Fama French and Vanguard showing t...
by nedsaid
Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7401
Views: 1553965

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Nedsaid, yes I believe a poster has noted this before. He was told it was always this way, so not too worry. https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=260753 https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=255695 A "shrinking" US Stock Market is yet another reason to diversify Int...
by nedsaid
Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are bonds the Maginot Line of Modern Investing?
Replies: 42
Views: 3625

Re: Are bonds the Maginot Line of Modern Investing?

Valuethinker, my understanding was that the French loss in World War II had much to do with tactics. My understanding is that the French tanks were actually better than the German ones but that the Germans massed their tanks in Armored Divisions whereas the French spread the tanks out among the infa...
by nedsaid
Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7401
Views: 1553965

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I see that the Chinese Stock Market has been taking a big hit and according to the financial press, this is affecting the US Market. Another worry is rising Italian bond yields. Always something to worry about. It's a good thing that markets climb a wall of worry. :wink: Yep, the markets have not e...
by nedsaid
Fri Oct 19, 2018 9:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are bonds the Maginot Line of Modern Investing?
Replies: 42
Views: 3625

Re: Are bonds the Maginot Line of Modern Investing?

Good read from Matt Topley about some comments by Jeremy Schwartz https://matttopley.com/topleys-top-ten-october-19-2018/. It's a truism that generals fight the last war and that investors prepare for the last down turn. I think we underestimate the chance of a 1970s type scenario where both bonds ...
by nedsaid
Fri Oct 19, 2018 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7401
Views: 1553965

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I see that the Chinese Stock Market has been taking a big hit and according to the financial press, this is affecting the US Market. Another worry is rising Italian bond yields. Always something to worry about. It's a good thing that markets climb a wall of worry. :wink: Yep, the markets have not e...
by nedsaid
Thu Oct 18, 2018 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7401
Views: 1553965

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I see that the Chinese Stock Market has been taking a big hit and according to the financial press, this is affecting the US Market. Another worry is rising Italian bond yields. Always something to worry about.
by nedsaid
Thu Oct 18, 2018 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear
Replies: 74
Views: 9605

Re: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear

It shouldn't be hard to see what I am trying to do here, be conciliatory and to encourage people to agree to disagree. The moderators do a great job but it is up to forum members to police themselves as much as possible. It is fun when investment authors post here, it adds to the forum. Larry is cer...
by nedsaid
Thu Oct 18, 2018 1:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear
Replies: 74
Views: 9605

Re: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear

I guess it is time for my last comment on this topic. Larry has certainly helped a lot of people with his unselfishness in talking to a lot of Bogleheads and answering their questions. The exchange of information has been good too. But Larry, and ultimately his firm, have benefitted from feedback fr...
by nedsaid
Wed Oct 17, 2018 7:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear
Replies: 74
Views: 9605

Re: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear

Taylor Thanks, it wasn't diredt but it was about diversification which you did call the something of scoundrels, implying it. Again thanks for the apology What amazes me still is that my motives are questioned when I've tireless answered thousands of questions and PMs and gotten so many thank yous ...
by nedsaid
Wed Oct 17, 2018 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear
Replies: 74
Views: 9605

Re: Scoundrel?

So I decided it was not worth spending time having to answer over and over again the same questions while still being accused of all kinds of things, including most recently by all people that gentleman Taylor Larimore of being a scoundrel. Larry: I cannot recall ever accusing you of being a "scoun...
by nedsaid
Wed Oct 17, 2018 2:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"
Replies: 203
Views: 10722

Re: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"

... If Vanguard had a Mars Index Fund, I would probably invest in that too... Under some of the premises that get talked about on here, many would justify that as being additional "diversification", and on the grounds of it being the universe of investable products portfolio you should hold it at m...
by nedsaid
Wed Oct 17, 2018 2:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear
Replies: 74
Views: 9605

Re: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear

My last comment, as I have pointed out investors need to understand that prospectuses are written by lawyers to avoid lawsuits so statements are always the broadest and most conservative that they can be and very often do not reflect the reality. This is a good example If you knew what you were tal...
by nedsaid
Wed Oct 17, 2018 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"
Replies: 203
Views: 10722

Re: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"

JoMoney, you should invest your money in a logical fashion and not because of a form of political correctness. Being a US only investor doesn't make you xenophobic. It is simply a difference of opinion. If Mr. Bogle wants to be a US only investor and has his logical reasons for doing so, more power ...
by nedsaid
Wed Oct 17, 2018 10:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"
Replies: 203
Views: 10722

Re: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"

The "they're riskier" argument works for Russian stock valuations and other emerging markets. I don't see that argument working for the UK, France, Germany or any other developed nation. Bogle always talks about how US multinationals already give you US exposure. Well, don't you get US exposure fro...
by nedsaid
Wed Oct 17, 2018 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 321
Views: 33770

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

AnalogKid22 wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 9:32 am
watchnerd wrote:
Tue Oct 16, 2018 11:10 pm
So bummed at these gains
Almost half of which have been erased today.
Darn it, this thread has jinxed the market! :wink:
by nedsaid
Wed Oct 17, 2018 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear
Replies: 74
Views: 9605

Re: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear

Swedroe’s article disingenuously offers that “there is an old saying” that “there is a time for every activity...” etc. (pre-lapsarians may recall the literate version of Ecclesiastes 3.1,”To everything there is a season; and a time to every purpose under heaven.”) This is Swedroe stealth quoting f...
by nedsaid
Tue Oct 16, 2018 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear
Replies: 74
Views: 9605

Re: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear

I don’t know of any specific “test”. All those strategies have been present for a very long time. They’ve been done by banks and hedge funds. Just now open to the public. Certainly always worry that investable by public is a bad sign. It's certainly not a good sign. Once a strategy is released to t...
by nedsaid
Mon Oct 15, 2018 12:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Hedge Fund’s & Undervalued Stocks
Replies: 1
Views: 396

Re: Larry Swedroe: Hedge Fund’s & Undervalued Stocks

One reason I am not concerned that markets will become less efficient with the rise of indexing is that there is lots of money still out there in hedge funds. Reason two would be the rise of factor investing even with more passive techniques. Reason three is that active management in retail funds wi...
by nedsaid
Mon Oct 15, 2018 12:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 2018 Good For Gurus
Replies: 7
Views: 1086

Re: Larry Swedroe: 2018 Good For Gurus

If the gurus have a positive score in 2018, it will be the first time in 9 years. Not good odds.
by nedsaid
Mon Oct 15, 2018 12:19 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please help with asset allocation - 63 yr old
Replies: 12
Views: 1405

Re: Please help with asset allocation - 63 yr old

What I would do is look at the asset allocation models for the Target 2020 Funds. Take a look and see what Vanguard, Fidelity, and T. Rowe Price are doing. You will get the best thinking of what the mutual fund industry thinks is appropriate for someone your age. Vanguard is at 53.52% stocks and 46....
by nedsaid
Sun Oct 14, 2018 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Invest in target date fund or do myself? Poor return Schwab Private Client
Replies: 23
Views: 2337

Re: Invest in target date fund or do myself? Poor return Schwab Private Client

Thanks everyone for input. Replies to questions: $550K is in IRA $450 in taxable Total now is 38% US Stock; 31% intl; 5 core bond; 14 in muni bond Thomas Partners $160 K (owned by Schwab)has done fine but the rest managed by Private Client not good So sounds like my option is to move IRA into a VTI...
by nedsaid
Sun Oct 14, 2018 8:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it better to have fewer investment choices?
Replies: 23
Views: 1729

Re: Is it better to have fewer investment choices?

I am rolling over a Variable Annuity to Fidelity. I will use Taylor's 3 fund portfolio: US Total Stock Market Index, an International Stock Index, and a US Bond Index. The simple portfolios work just fine.
by nedsaid
Sun Oct 14, 2018 8:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Invest in target date fund or do myself? Poor return Schwab Private Client
Replies: 23
Views: 2337

Re: Invest in target date fund or do myself? Poor return Schwab Private Client

I am new member. Low 60's age, should be mod aggressive investor. Have one million to invest and don't need money for at least 10,to 15 years. Schwab Private Client for 4 years and lagged against all benchmarks. Am now down -4.3% YTD w 67% stock. Husband in Vanguard 2020 target fund only 1%. No one...
by nedsaid
Sun Oct 14, 2018 7:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does international really buy you diversification?
Replies: 43
Views: 4478

Re: Does international really buy you diversification?

I see this as a recurring theme over tye past 20years or so - a fall in us stocks leads to a fall in European stocks the next day.if these walk so much hand under hand, are we really getting any diversification by investubg in international stocks? International bonds, on the other hand, might be a...
by nedsaid
Sun Oct 14, 2018 6:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sears, a 125 year old company is now a penny stock.
Replies: 123
Views: 14495

Re: Sears, a 125 year old company is now a penny stock.

Keep this in mind whenever anybody starts saying that a portfolio of a few good blue-chip stocks are not risky, if they are stocks in truly great companies, household names, that "aren't going to go away." Because "everybody will always need" refrigerators, sensible clothing, and durable tools. Wel...
by nedsaid
Sat Oct 13, 2018 11:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Why Emerging Markets Matter
Replies: 82
Views: 6353

Re: Larry Swedroe: Why Emerging Markets Matter

Lower correlations with US equities and greater expected returns are why I personally am overweight EM relative to IDM in my IPS. If this actually benefits me in the long run is yet to be seen. This is why I made the comment that Emerging Markets are the new REITs. I remember seeing data back in 20...
by nedsaid
Sat Oct 13, 2018 11:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7401
Views: 1553965

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Why are the long term interest rates moving up? Fed only controls short term rates. So for long term rates to go up that means lot of long term bond selling going on, meaning prices dropping and yields going up. If money is moving out of long term bonds it's definitely not going into stocks since s...
by nedsaid
Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7401
Views: 1553965

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

The classic too much money chasing too few goods and services argument. An interesting data point related to the too much money question. At last week's BH conference, Gus Sauter gave a presentation on the Endowment model and Private Equity. (slides and video are on the forum somewhere.) A key take...
by nedsaid
Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7401
Views: 1553965

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Why are the long term interest rates moving up? Fed only controls short term rates. So for long term rates to go up that means lot of long term bond selling going on, meaning prices dropping and yields going up. If money is moving out of long term bonds it's definitely not going into stocks since s...
by nedsaid
Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7401
Views: 1553965

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I think what is happening is that interest rates are moving, so far in October the yield on the 10 year treasury has moved up from 3.09% to 3.22%. Pretty good move in just 10 days! The 30 year US Treasury has moved from a yield of 3.24% to 3.39%. That is a fairly big move in a few days. This is the...
by nedsaid
Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7401
Views: 1553965

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I think what is happening is that interest rates are moving, so far in October the yield on the 10 year treasury has moved up from 3.09% to 3.22%. Pretty good move in just 10 days! The 30 year US Treasury has moved from a yield of 3.24% to 3.39%. That is a fairly big move in a few days. No one know...