Search found 10962 matches

by nedsaid
Fri Feb 15, 2019 3:29 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity Strategic Advisor Portfolio Management
Replies: 25
Views: 3604

Re: Fidelity Strategic Advisor Portfolio Management

Good morning, I have a question regarding Fidelity's investment Management plans. The gist of a conversation with a Fidelity representative this morning was: (1) the Stock Market is likely headed for a downward correction (2) You can either time the market yourself by buying stocks during a downtur...
by nedsaid
Fri Feb 15, 2019 3:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Charlie Munger: Teaching young people to actively trade stocks is like starting them on heroin
Replies: 29
Views: 2263

Re: Charlie Munger: Teaching young people to actively trade stocks is like starting them on heroin

Stock picking isn't so bad, it is the constant trading of stocks that gets you. Munger and Buffett both pick stocks and entire businesses, but they have a long term perspective as business owners and not traders. My thesis is that stock picking can work but even if you do a good job at it, the odds ...
by nedsaid
Fri Feb 15, 2019 3:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 3 Factor Investing Myths
Replies: 40
Views: 3333

Re: Larry Swedroe: 3 Factor Investing Myths

I also point out that the better indexes like the S&P indexes screen out most of the "anti-factors" like lottery stocks and value traps. In other words, the better indexes screen out the worst stocks. You might be better off avoiding the bad stocks rather than trying to capture the best stocks by f...
by nedsaid
Thu Feb 14, 2019 10:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 3 Factor Investing Myths
Replies: 40
Views: 3333

Re: Larry Swedroe: 3 Factor Investing Myths

https://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-3-factor-investing-myths?nopaging=1 The solution to the potential problem of a factor’s underperformance is not to avoid factors. It is to diversify across them. I can't seem to get my head around why a Total Stock Market index isn't also a...
by nedsaid
Mon Feb 11, 2019 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Don’t Compare Your Investment Returns With Others (Especially On The Internet)"
Replies: 34
Views: 3249

Re: "Don’t Compare Your Investment Returns With Others (Especially On The Internet)"

"Most people" on the internet have a perfect ten model wife, mid six figure income, several 10 baggers a year on the NYSE, children who ace the SAT and get scholarships from 2-4 IVY league schools, and run marathons quarterly. The rest of us will simply have to make due with what we have. Yes, in L...
by nedsaid
Mon Feb 11, 2019 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Index Investing Just Betting on The U.S Economy?
Replies: 46
Views: 5046

Re: Is Index Investing Just Betting on The U.S Economy?

billthecat wrote: Why can’t Japan fix itself? Very good question. The simple answer which may or may not be the entire story is that Japan's bubble in real estate and stocks reached levels in the late 1980s that have not been reached by any other bubble in centuries. The Nikkei Stock Index went fro...
by nedsaid
Mon Feb 11, 2019 11:48 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What is a Boglehead funeral/burial?
Replies: 153
Views: 8110

Re: What is a Boglehead funeral/burial?

Boglehead Funeral 1. Professionally drawn up will/trust in place and ready to be executed. 2. Allocation and portfolio glide path projections in place. 3. Funeral/burial, and other end of life/post life expenses taken care of. 4. Everything in balance and at peace. These are my thoughts too. I have...
by nedsaid
Mon Feb 11, 2019 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In defense of Hedge Funds
Replies: 28
Views: 2397

Re: In defense of Hedge Funds

I have a lot of respect for people running hedge funds and those like Cliff Asness who run the Liquid Alt funds. What they are doing is quite hard to do, it is a huge intellectual challenge even with the aid of superfast computers. Cliff admits that there are others better than him at this game but ...
by nedsaid
Mon Feb 11, 2019 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In defense of Hedge Funds
Replies: 28
Views: 2397

Re: In defense of Hedge Funds

Doubtless, there are folks out there who have succeeded running hedge funds but there are some issues here. First, not so easy for individuals to invest as these funds have very high investment minimums. Second, there are the Liquid Alts that use shorts and leverage that are available through adviso...
by nedsaid
Mon Feb 11, 2019 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: No Point To Timing Factors
Replies: 16
Views: 1426

Re: Larry Swedroe: No Point To Timing Factors

Market timing is difficult because the market anticipates or at least tries to anticipate the future. Pretty much you have to outguess the other market participants and you also have the being right too early problem. In the days of Math PhDs and 24-7 computing and number crunching with powerful sof...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 10, 2019 8:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What index stocks are on undervalued now? What site do people use to determine this?
Replies: 27
Views: 2065

Re: What index stocks are on "sale" now? What site do people use to determine this?

I understand that US stocks are widely considered overpriced right now. I also understand that international and emerging stocks are possibly undervalued right now. i.e. stocks revert to the mean. 1. Is this generally true? 2. What other stocks are on sale right now? 3. What web sites do people use...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 10, 2019 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What index stocks are on undervalued now? What site do people use to determine this?
Replies: 27
Views: 2065

Re: What index stocks are on "sale" now? What site do people use to determine this?

I understand that US stocks are widely considered overpriced right now. I also understand that international and emerging stocks are possibly undervalued right now. i.e. stocks revert to the mean. 1. Is this generally true? 2. What other stocks are on sale right now? 3. What web sites do people use...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 10, 2019 1:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How "Safe" is Your Bond Fund?
Replies: 43
Views: 3977

Re: How "Safe" is Your Bond Fund?

For me, bond funds are "unsafe" because their share price fluctuates and, unlike buying bonds directly and holding them to maturity, there's not a thing you can do about it. That said, I still have a small percentage of my portfolio in them, but I view them as less "safe" than CDs, Tbills, and the ...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 10, 2019 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VNQI (Global ex-US Real Estate): Is this a bargain or not?
Replies: 7
Views: 1306

Re: VNQI (Global ex-US Real Estate): Is this a bargain or not?

PE 8.2. PB .82! VNQI has had much more attractive valuations than VNQ for way more than a decade but in spite of that VNQ has massively outperformed it. But these numbers are outrageous and they come from Vanguard which is a reputable firm. They are also much better than VWO, VXUS, and VSS which pr...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 10, 2019 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: T Rowe Price?
Replies: 29
Views: 3050

Re: T Rowe Price?

I have a very high regard for T Rowe Price as a company and as a place to invest. Admired them for years but never invested there. I watched Brian Rogers as a panelist on Wall $treet Week for years. Larry Swedroe and Paul Merriman have said nice things about them. They have excellent active funds bu...
by nedsaid
Sat Feb 09, 2019 11:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Steve Vernon - Money for Life
Replies: 3
Views: 1299

Re: Steve Vernon - Money for Life

I have looked through some of Steve Vernon's posts in this 16 week series and thought the material here was worthwhile for Bogleheads to read. Giving a boost to Bob's thread here. Hopefully some folks will look through this material and benefit.
by nedsaid
Sat Feb 09, 2019 10:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 2018 Report Card For Hedge Funds
Replies: 1
Views: 372

Re: Larry Swedroe: 2018 Report Card For Hedge Funds

Wow. The good old fashioned 60% stock/40% bond balanced portfolio still looks pretty darned good. The thing is, we don't know exactly why it works so well but it does. Interesting that hedge funds don't do any better job than a cheap and simple balanced portfolio.
by nedsaid
Sat Feb 09, 2019 10:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tributes to Jack Bogle
Replies: 149
Views: 14518

Re: "John Bogle. RIP"

There can't be enough tributes to John C. Bogle, or Jack as he liked to be called. He was a fine human being and will be very much missed. Sad that I didn't ever get to meet him.
by nedsaid
Sat Feb 09, 2019 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness - Looking for the Intuition Underlying Multi-Factor Stock Selection
Replies: 13
Views: 948

Re: AQR/Asness - Looking for the Intuition Underlying Multi-Factor Stock Selection

AQR had a disappointing 2018. There are different ways of looking at this. First, the markets as a whole were disappointing and only money markets did fairly well. The Total Bond Indexes were barely in the black and many bonds were actually down a bit. For example, TIPS were down. Second, you could...
by nedsaid
Sat Feb 09, 2019 11:16 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity ZERO YTD Performance
Replies: 29
Views: 3541

Re: Fidelity ZERO YTD Performance

FZILX has about 2300 holdings vs FTIHX's 4300. The good thing about tracking error is it can go up or down though. I wouldn't hold either in taxable due to recent capital gains distributions. 2,300 stocks is one heck of a sample. I think the statisticians would tell you that with such a large sampl...
by nedsaid
Sat Feb 09, 2019 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness - Looking for the Intuition Underlying Multi-Factor Stock Selection
Replies: 13
Views: 948

Re: AQR/Asness - Looking for the Intuition Underlying Multi-Factor Stock Selection

AQR had a disappointing 2018. There are different ways of looking at this. First, the markets as a whole were disappointing and only money markets did fairly well. The Total Bond Indexes were barely in the black and many bonds were actually down a bit. For example, TIPS were down. Second, you could...
by nedsaid
Sat Feb 09, 2019 9:58 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How To Invest Now and Best Limit Risk of Big Recession Loss
Replies: 19
Views: 1951

Re: How To Invest Now and Best Limit Risk of Big Recession Loss

The problem with your strategy is that the market anticipates future events or at least tries too. Stocks may fall in anticipation of a recession and actually rise when the recession arrives. Hard to know how far ahead exactly the markets are looking. This last market correction was in anticipation ...
by nedsaid
Sat Feb 09, 2019 9:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness - Looking for the Intuition Underlying Multi-Factor Stock Selection
Replies: 13
Views: 948

Re: AQR/Asness - Looking for the Intuition Underlying Multi-Factor Stock Selection

AQR had a disappointing 2018. There are different ways of looking at this. First, the markets as a whole were disappointing and only money markets did fairly well. The Total Bond Indexes were barely in the black and many bonds were actually down a bit. For example, TIPS were down. Second, you could ...
by nedsaid
Sat Feb 09, 2019 9:32 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity ZERO YTD Performance
Replies: 29
Views: 3541

Re: Fidelity ZERO YTD Performance

FZILX has about 2300 holdings vs FTIHX's 4300. The good thing about tracking error is it can go up or down though. I wouldn't hold either in taxable due to recent capital gains distributions. 2,300 stocks is one heck of a sample. I think the statisticians would tell you that with such a large sampl...
by nedsaid
Sat Feb 09, 2019 9:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Understanding The Disposition Effect
Replies: 25
Views: 1729

Re: Larry Swedroe: Understanding The Disposition Effect

This (the disposition effect) temporarily pushes down current prices and leads to higher subsequent returns when future prices revert to their fundamental values. Yes, this makes some sense. Problem is, if this is happening, the institutions are doing this. Bad behavior by individuals owning indivi...
by nedsaid
Sat Feb 09, 2019 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Understanding The Disposition Effect
Replies: 25
Views: 1729

Re: Larry Swedroe: Understanding The Disposition Effect

How does selling winners too soon and holding onto losers too long explain momentum? A better explanation of momentum is performance chasing. Another problem I have with this article is that institutions hold the vast majority of securities and do the vast majority of the trading. Institutions have ...
by nedsaid
Thu Feb 07, 2019 9:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%
Replies: 302
Views: 21274

Re: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%

I feel the same way. The fact that real returns since 1992 (27 years is closing in on 'long-term' IMHO) have slightly exceeded that of the prior 60+ years in spite of valuations having been higher since 1992 makes it seem to me that traditional valuation metrics are missing something. Even if it's ...
by nedsaid
Thu Feb 07, 2019 9:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Need Help - DW Laid Off and Company wants her back now
Replies: 107
Views: 10695

Re: Need Help - DW Laid Off and Company wants her back now

Hello, We have an interesting situation here. DW had a senior position in consulting company and is not billable. However, because of her very strong expertise, she is a valuable employee and has the ability to bring in business and influence clients. DW was called this morning and notified that sh...
by nedsaid
Thu Feb 07, 2019 8:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%
Replies: 302
Views: 21274

Re: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%

BTW-saying Pfau and others were wrong is incredibly foolish. Remember they consider possible outcomes. That means for example that 4% might have been 90% odds of success. For some that is acceptable, for others not. Pfau and others never said 4% would fail. This is correct. I concede your point. Th...
by nedsaid
Mon Feb 04, 2019 10:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Worst December...Best January
Replies: 29
Views: 3666

Re: Worst December...Best January

Its like dude, what happened to the bear market?
by nedsaid
Mon Feb 04, 2019 9:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: "Steelmanning" the case for owning individual stocks
Replies: 51
Views: 3204

Re: "Steelmanning" the case for owning individual stocks

Just for fun, as of 2/1/2019 my 15 year return on my individual stocks is 7.62% IRR compared to 8.20% for the S&P 500 and 8.49% for Total Stock Market Index. My 10 year return is 13.92% compared to 15.01% for the S&P 500 and 15.20% for Total Stock Market Index. So over 15 years, I am trailing the ma...
by nedsaid
Mon Feb 04, 2019 7:42 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity customer service
Replies: 10
Views: 1156

Re: Fidelity customer service

I had an appointment with a Fidelity advisor a couple months ago. It was a review of the retirement calculator on the Fidelity website. I had all my information in there, including investments at other firms. Much of the discussion was about the bond market and later about annuities. The advisor was...
by nedsaid
Mon Feb 04, 2019 1:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tributes to Jack Bogle
Replies: 149
Views: 14518

Re: Neil Cavuto's video tribute

Bogleheads: You will enjoy this very nice eight-minute video tribute by Neil Cavuto, television news anchor: Remembering the late Wall Street legend John Bogle" Best wishes. Taylor That tribute video by Neil Cavuto was not only a home run but hit way over the centerfield fence. It was a very nice t...
by nedsaid
Mon Feb 04, 2019 1:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%
Replies: 302
Views: 21274

Re: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%

I will take one more crack at this and if Larry Swedroe thinks I am a blithering idiot, so be it. Something changed in American business after the 2008-2009 financial crisis and bear market. As I have interviewed for jobs, it has occurred to me that though labor is still very valuable, that it is l...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 03, 2019 8:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bob Brinker Retirement
Replies: 21
Views: 3752

Re: Bob Brinker Retirement

I learned a lot from Bob Brinker. I wish him the very best in his retirement.
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 03, 2019 5:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%
Replies: 302
Views: 21274

Re: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%

But then would add that US has been what has been called the triumph of the optimists (the winner) and while 4% might have worked in past looking at historical data, you would find in other countries (i.e. Japan say starting in 1990, with Nikkei now at about half what it was then) that it did not w...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 03, 2019 4:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%
Replies: 302
Views: 21274

Re: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%

I think the arguments here are over nuance and not over major issues. Not really in disagreement with Larry here, caution is warranted here, after all stocks are risky. I am in agreement that valuations matter, in agreement that future returns will be muted in future years. The biggest factor is how...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 03, 2019 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%
Replies: 302
Views: 21274

Re: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%

I will take one more crack at this and if Larry Swedroe thinks I am a blithering idiot, so be it. Something changed in American business after the 2008-2009 financial crisis and bear market. As I have interviewed for jobs, it has occurred to me that though labor is still very valuable, that it is l...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 03, 2019 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%
Replies: 302
Views: 21274

Re: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%

I am not saying that stocks are cheap here. Certainly stocks get more expensive after an almost 10 year bull market. Not saying to back up the truck and buy stocks like crazy. What I am saying is that there seems to be excessive pessimism here and that while caution is always warranted, long term I ...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 03, 2019 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%
Replies: 302
Views: 21274

Re: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%

I will take one more crack at this and if Larry Swedroe thinks I am a blithering idiot, so be it. Something changed in American business after the 2008-2009 financial crisis and bear market. As I have interviewed for jobs, it has occurred to me that though labor is still very valuable, that it is l...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 03, 2019 12:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: "Steelmanning" the case for owning individual stocks
Replies: 51
Views: 3204

Re: "Steelmanning" the case for owning individual stocks

I don't want to give the impression that I don't believe in quantitative analysis, I do. Just pointing out that it has its limitations. Using a Costco approach of buying stocks in bulk and using computer screening would be a much more efficient approach to portfolio management than trying a bottoms ...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 03, 2019 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%
Replies: 302
Views: 21274

Re: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%

I will take one more crack at this and if Larry Swedroe thinks I am a blithering idiot, so be it. Something changed in American business after the 2008-2009 financial crisis and bear market. As I have interviewed for jobs, it has occurred to me that though labor is still very valuable, that it is le...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 03, 2019 12:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%
Replies: 302
Views: 21274

Re: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%

BTW-saying Pfau and others were wrong is incredibly foolish. Remember they consider possible outcomes. That means for example that 4% might have been 90% odds of success. For some that is acceptable, for others not. Pfau and others never said 4% would fail. This is correct. I concede your point. Th...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 03, 2019 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%
Replies: 302
Views: 21274

Re: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%

cherijoh First, using valuations and yields is not an assumption, it's math. And we do know that valuations and yields are the BEST (though not great) metrics for estimating future returns. There is consensus on that in the academic literature, with about equal abililty in current valuations and CA...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 03, 2019 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: On average, do people who use EJ, etc. come out ahead?
Replies: 52
Views: 4490

Re: On average, do people who use EJ, etc. come out ahead?

The first question you have to ask is this, ahead of what? If the answer is a low interest rate savings account, an Edward Jones investor is pretty likely to beat money sitting in a bank even with fairly high investment fees. If the answer is a Taylor Larimore 3 Index Fund Portfolio, the answer is n...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 03, 2019 12:04 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: "Steelmanning" the case for owning individual stocks
Replies: 51
Views: 3204

Re: "Steelmanning" the case for owning individual stocks

The problem with Quantitative Analysis is that the numbers produced by the accountants are pretty good but not exact. There are judgments made and such things as accruals are made in an attempt to better match income and expense within the same time period. You also have to take into account industr...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 03, 2019 11:31 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: "Steelmanning" the case for owning individual stocks
Replies: 51
Views: 3204

Re: "Steelmanning" the case for owning individual stocks

Steel man: Sometimes the term "steel man" is used to refer to a position's or argument's improved form. A straw man is a misrepresentation of someone's position or argument that is easy to defeat: a "steel man" is an improvement of someone's position or argument that is harder to defeat than their ...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 03, 2019 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Seeking Alpha: The Dark Side Of John Bogle's Legacy]
Replies: 72
Views: 6063

Re: [Seeking Alpha: The Dark Side Of John Bogle's Legacy]

Active bond funds have turnover too. One active fund I looked up had turnover of 179%, Vanguard Total Bond Index Admiral had 55%.
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 03, 2019 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: On average, do people who use EJ, etc. come out ahead?
Replies: 52
Views: 4490

Re: On average, do people who use EJ, etc. come out ahead?

Just think of the life savings saved by EJ advisers/salespeople just telling customers "DO NOT SELL" in 2008-09. That advice was worth a lifetime of fees charged, even if the advice was selfishly motivated to keep customers in high ER mutual funds. Not even close. Some back of the envelope math; As...
by nedsaid
Sat Feb 02, 2019 10:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Little Pension That Dumped Dalio
Replies: 14
Views: 2651

Re: The Little Pension That Dumped Dalio

The title says it all. A tiny pension fund decided that the fees were too high (3.69% annually) while returns were too low over a 5-year period, so they moved the moneys to a lower fee fund which is a passively managed within Bridgewater. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-24/dalio-fun...