Search found 9132 matches

by nedsaid
Sat Feb 24, 2018 12:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Financial proposal from Adviser
Replies: 27
Views: 2072

Re: Financial proposal from Adviser

I received a hypothetical proposal from a financial advisor with EJ, I moved all my accounts from them but still have a 529 plan with them. It's a proposal to grow my funds from around 200K to almost 800K over a span of 20 years. It would be half in American funds (index funds, bond index funds) an...
by nedsaid
Sat Feb 24, 2018 12:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: What Investors Should Worry About
Replies: 53
Views: 3370

Re: Larry Swedroe: What Investors Should Worry About

I am not trying to derail the thread, I am just trying to get people to think about the market and economic assumptions that are just taken for granted. In the context of the decision of whether or not to buy Alternative Investments, your thoughts about whether these will ultimately work or not are ...
by nedsaid
Fri Feb 23, 2018 11:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: What Investors Should Worry About
Replies: 53
Views: 3370

Re: Larry Swedroe: What Investors Should Worry About

If you try to sell more bonds (increase supply) the price will drop (interest rates higher) unless there is an increase in demand. Larry didn’t say rates go up because of debt, he said they increase pressure on the rates (increase supply lowers rates). That’s a pretty much Econ 101 thing and not pa...
by nedsaid
Fri Feb 23, 2018 11:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: What Investors Should Worry About
Replies: 53
Views: 3370

Re: Larry Swedroe: What Investors Should Worry About

Something about the high valuations, low returns, and alternatives recommendations makes me wonder if what is being cautiously/conservatively advanced is a inf/stagflation strategy without calling it inflationary, and because the desired returns are in the equity range. If the desired returns for t...
by nedsaid
Fri Feb 23, 2018 11:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: What Investors Should Worry About
Replies: 53
Views: 3370

Re: Larry Swedroe: What Investors Should Worry About

Larry Swedroe said: While this is happening, the Fed also has to finance a now-$1 trillion budget deficit, adding to its borrowing needs. Again, that could put further pressure on interest rates. And don’t forget that, with $20 trillion in debt, rising interest rates themselves create a problem as ...
by nedsaid
Thu Feb 22, 2018 10:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Telling Tales: Value, Size, Int'l, REITs (2017 update)
Replies: 25
Views: 2426

Re: Telling Tales: Value, Size, Int'l, REITs (2017 update)

Thanks Siamond for your excellent work. Interesting stuff. My take on the Value arguments is that Small Value is the best, the Mid-Value segment of the market has a bit less return but also less volatility. Large Value has a very small premium. I have wondered if Large Value is due for a good run, I...
by nedsaid
Wed Feb 21, 2018 8:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reporting back on variable annuity research
Replies: 8
Views: 747

Re: Reporting back on variable annuity research

Thanks ijr for reporting back on your research. I have been advising people with older variable annuity contracts to do some hard thinking before dumping them. Moshe Milevsky has said that some of the older contracts had guarantees worth keeping. It turns out insurance companies offered too good of ...
by nedsaid
Wed Feb 21, 2018 8:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Emerging Markets "lost decade" is over
Replies: 80
Views: 11609

Re: The Emerging Markets "lost decade" is over

unclescrooge wrote:
Sun Feb 18, 2018 11:51 pm
It doesn't have to be a commodity play. It can also be a technology play. Think of Samsung, Alibaba, tencent, etc.
Funny, you mentioned that. Those three stocks showed up in my top 25 stocks when I used the Stock Intersection analysis tool at Morningstar. You have amazing psychic abilities!!
by nedsaid
Wed Feb 21, 2018 8:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Emerging Markets "lost decade" is over
Replies: 80
Views: 11609

Re: The Emerging Markets "lost decade" is over

In many respects, EM is a commodities play, and commodities haven't done well since about 2008. Not anymore. Buy emerging markets for the growth, not the commodities http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20180123/FREE/180129970/buy-emerging-markets-for-the-growth-not-the-commodities Emerging Market...
by nedsaid
Wed Feb 21, 2018 8:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Emerging Markets "lost decade" is over
Replies: 80
Views: 11609

Re: The Emerging Markets "lost decade" is over

Personally I would move away from any "emerging market" funds, not only has it gotten nowhere so long, but I think it will continue to go nowhere because emerging markets are corrupt so you dont ever get accurate anything and all their stocks are corrupt due to false numbers, data, bribary etc... I...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 18, 2018 8:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I think US interest rates could drop.
Replies: 62
Views: 6634

Re: I think US interest rates could drop.

I have thought a lot about the monetary system and how all of this works for a few reasons. First, I have concerns about the safety of my treasury investments. My conclusion is that the promised principal and interest payments will be made. Second, I have a vested interest in the financial health of...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 18, 2018 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I think US interest rates could drop.
Replies: 62
Views: 6634

Re: I think US interest rates could drop.

One reason why interest rates may go up is simply supply and demand. This year alone we will have a trillion dollar deficit on top of a very high debt/GDP ratio. In fact with the tax cuts and increases in military and domestic spending plus the Fed selling Treasuries to reduce their balance sheet w...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 18, 2018 11:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the evidence against slice and dice?
Replies: 59
Views: 4566

Re: What is the evidence against slice and dice?

As always, nobody can say--and everybody will argue--over whether the (small value) effect vanished when it become widely known, whether the factors became "overgrazed," whether this is an example of "Rekenthaler's Rule" ("If the bozos know about it, it doesn't work anymore") ... or whether this ju...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 18, 2018 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 5600
Views: 1266141

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Sometimes it seems that the market wants a correction, the technical definition being a 10% pullback. It also seems that when this happens, there is just nothing to do but wait until the big market players get what they want. Well, we got our correction and then the market started recovering. It rem...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 18, 2018 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New reduced rate on REIT Dividends
Replies: 16
Views: 2348

Re: New reduced rate on REIT Dividends

All - I have not seen any posts on this matter, so I apologize in advance if it has been covered. My understanding is that under the new tax bill, there is a 20% haircut on ordinary REIT dividends. So if you receive $100 in REIT ordinary dividends, only $80 is subject to tax; so effectively providi...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 18, 2018 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Case for Higher Int'l Allocation? Larry Swedroe article on home bias
Replies: 113
Views: 7468

Re: A Case for Higher Int'l Allocation? Larry Swedroe article on home bias

You'll note that I didn't say inflation was good for stocks. But everything else being equal, higher inflation can be expected to lead to higher nominal stock returns. I suggest that you take a look at Tyler's post at Portfolio Charts that I linked to; it demonstrates why this issue is important. A...
by nedsaid
Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New reduced rate on REIT Dividends
Replies: 16
Views: 2348

Re: New reduced rate on REIT Dividends

All - I have not seen any posts on this matter, so I apologize in advance if it has been covered. My understanding is that under the new tax bill, there is a 20% haircut on ordinary REIT dividends. So if you receive $100 in REIT ordinary dividends, only $80 is subject to tax; so effectively providi...
by nedsaid
Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Case for Higher Int'l Allocation? Larry Swedroe article on home bias
Replies: 113
Views: 7468

Re: A Case for Higher Int'l Allocation? Larry Swedroe article on home bias

There are actually some logical reasons for having a home country tilt, not the least of which is the fact that your home country's inflation, which impacts your spending power, also has a much greater impact on domestic stock market returns than international returns. Tyler at Portfolio Charts had...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 11, 2018 8:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 5600
Views: 1266141

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I am a somewhat of a newer investor (7 years) but not a young investor (mid-60's and retired and taking 3.4% for living expenses). I did put money into the Total Stock Market Index on Friday. I am currently running a 60/40 very simple portfolio (60% Total Stock Market Index and 40% Total Bond Marke...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 11, 2018 7:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Soul searching on interest rates
Replies: 15
Views: 1305

Re: Soul searching on interest rates

I think you're mixing two very different concerns: The finances of the state of New Jersey and those of the US Government. The US government issues borrows in its own currency. If it borrows and spends $100, that money will make it through the economy and eventually ends up in the hands of someone ...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 11, 2018 6:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are REITs essentially taboo for years now with rising rates?
Replies: 55
Views: 5252

Re: Are REITs essentially taboo for years now with rising rates?

I am keeping my REITs though I have no plans to purchase more. A while back, I sold about 20% of my REITs and elected to keep the rest. Historically, these yield 6% to 8% and with low interest rates and the income investors piling in, these rates got to be down to about 3%. I just checked the invest...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 11, 2018 5:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best place to exchange dollars to euros?
Replies: 18
Views: 746

Re: Best place to exchange dollars to euros?

I take foreign cash with me when I travel. I use AAA to buy my foreign currency. Using bank ATM's oversees are also a good deal but not at the airport. Don't use Travelex or American Express at the airport, you won't get a good rate there.
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 11, 2018 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity halts investor purchases of three VIX-focused ETFs
Replies: 12
Views: 1307

Re: Fidelity halts investor purchases of three VIX-focused ETFs

We had at least one major inverse volatility ETN (Credit Suisse) go bust and another ETF hung on by the skin of it's teeth. So, it's not surprising at all that brokers would curtail access to some of the riskier products to retail investors. It is surprising to me. I mistakenly thought brokers prov...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 11, 2018 5:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 5600
Views: 1266141

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

So they (TIAA) clearly think that the worst of the declines are over. We'll see if they're right. +1 Thanks for posting willthrill81, great perspective on the market activity........ Time to get my "buying shoes" on :moneybag I would caution that stocks are cheaper and not necessarily cheap. These ...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 11, 2018 5:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 5600
Views: 1266141

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

How do you know the market is overvalued today? 1) In late January, people were posting pics of their 401k statements on Facebook, bragging about how rich they were getting and were virtually guaranteed of an early retirement. 2) And I know a few friends and family that are actually borrowing money...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 11, 2018 5:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 5600
Views: 1266141

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

This from Michael Batnick at the Irrelevant Investor. I resemble this remark. -1% Mock the permabears -2% Meh -3% Yawn -4% Off the highs -5% Pullback -6% Healthy correction -7% Buying opportunity -8% Stay the course -9% This too shall pass -10% Correction territory -11% I’m a long-term investor -12...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 11, 2018 5:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 5600
Views: 1266141

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Cramer said that excessive XIV trading (the volatility index symbol, an ETF of some sort I guess) causes the wild swings in the total market. Is this true? Is it a derivative of some sort? How would trading just this one thing cause volatility in the whole stock market? It sounds like the tail wagg...
by nedsaid
Sun Feb 11, 2018 5:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe's portfolio: does the fact that SC are expensive cause a problem?
Replies: 37
Views: 3268

Re: Larry Swedroe's portfolio: does the fact that SC are expensive cause a problem?

Although I use Price to Earnings as my primary market barometer, there are a few things you have to take into consideration. First of all, you have to know which set of ratios you are looking at. I primarily look at forward P/E's based upon future estimated earnings. The market looks forward and so ...
by nedsaid
Sat Feb 10, 2018 7:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Rising Rates Increase Worries
Replies: 86
Views: 12998

Re: Larry Swedroe: Rising Rates Increase Worries

I never thought I would be posting on a forum defending some of the policies of the Roosevelt Administration. Certainly, I am on the other side of the aisle but I will acknowledge the good things that they did. The thing is, I knew a lot of people with memories of the Great Depression and WWII inclu...
by nedsaid
Sat Feb 10, 2018 6:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: Seeing Valuations Clearly
Replies: 1
Views: 614

Re: Swedroe: Seeing Valuations Clearly

This is a good article by Larry, he has reminded us of the relationship between valuations and future expected returns. He also has reminded us of the changes in Generally Accepted Accounting Principles which has made the definition of earnings more conservative. In other words, the accountants have...
by nedsaid
Sat Feb 10, 2018 5:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Rising Rates Increase Worries
Replies: 86
Views: 12998

Re: Larry Swedroe: Rising Rates Increase Worries

There absolutely is doubt that WWII ended the Great Depression . Not only is there doubt, there are volumes of research which assert the opposite. If war did increase real economic output, why wait around for a war? We could reinstitute the draft, build new weapons factories and ship yards, and bom...
by nedsaid
Sat Feb 10, 2018 5:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 4 Horsemen Of Your Portfolio
Replies: 108
Views: 10389

Re: Larry Swedroe: 4 Horsemen Of Your Portfolio

I think what will happen, out of necessity, is the comeback of the extended family. Who would be in this extended family? Not sure there are many cases where anyone other than the children would take on this care. If we're talking about the children, then the first question is "are there children?"...
by nedsaid
Sat Feb 10, 2018 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 4 Horsemen Of Your Portfolio
Replies: 108
Views: 10389

Re: Larry Swedroe: 4 Horsemen Of Your Portfolio

My take on the article, is that Larry is pretty much right and that we need to be very nice to our family members. You might need them someday. The thing is, I don't think we have a retirement crisis, I believe Western Countries are maintaining too many households. The idea that we all need to reti...
by nedsaid
Sat Feb 10, 2018 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Rising Rates Increase Worries
Replies: 86
Views: 12998

Re: Larry Swedroe: Rising Rates Increase Worries

The thing is, of course consumers suffered from war time rationing. We were marshalling resources for the war effort. In a guns vs. butter battle for priorities, guns won. This should hardly be surprising. Again, as much as I like Reason Magazine, there was just no political will for the type of pol...
by nedsaid
Sat Feb 10, 2018 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Rising Rates Increase Worries
Replies: 86
Views: 12998

Re: Larry Swedroe: Rising Rates Increase Worries

I'd just like to point out that some of what is being presented in this post as fact is in actuality conjecture that is not widely accepted by economists. Specifically: WWII being good for the global economy (broken window fallacy); Public deficit equals private surplus (ignores capital surplus); e...
by nedsaid
Fri Feb 09, 2018 11:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The stock market is officially in a correction... here's what usually happens next"
Replies: 83
Views: 13196

Re: "The stock market is officially in a correction... here's what usually happens next"

"Stay the course" is not the same as "Buy and hold." Corrections and bear markets can often be an opportunity to rebalance, sell an unwanted fund, tax-loss harvest or move to another company. Best wishes. Taylor Hi Taylor, I want to thank you again for the guidance I received from you, Mel, and Bob...
by nedsaid
Thu Feb 08, 2018 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 5600
Views: 1266141

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Haven't you been paying attention in the past lew years? Valuations are outdated. Bogleheads know that valuations don't matter, ever. At least that's the impression I have been getting from reading Bogleheads.com in the last few years. No, Bogleheads know that valuations aren't actionable. I hope y...
by nedsaid
Thu Feb 08, 2018 8:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 4 Horsemen Of Your Portfolio
Replies: 108
Views: 10389

Re: Larry Swedroe: 4 Horsemen Of Your Portfolio

I think what will happen, out of necessity, is the comeback of the extended family. Who would be in this extended family? Not sure there are many cases where anyone other than the children would take on this care. If we're talking about the children, then the first question is "are there children?"...
by nedsaid
Wed Feb 07, 2018 11:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 4 Horsemen Of Your Portfolio
Replies: 108
Views: 10389

Re: Larry Swedroe: 4 Horsemen Of Your Portfolio

In the article, Larry raises four concerns that investors need to be thinking about. He calls these the Four Horsemen and they are historically high equity valuations, historically low bond yields, increasing longevity, and the risks of long term care. Larry also discusses that the Medicare trust fu...
by nedsaid
Wed Feb 07, 2018 11:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 4 Horsemen Of Your Portfolio
Replies: 108
Views: 10389

Re: Larry Swedroe: 4 Horsemen Of Your Portfolio

The Four Horsemen. Hmmm. Where have I heard of this before? Of course, we draw inspiration from the four Horsemen of the Apocalypse which is an echo of the Four Horses and the Four Chariots of the Old Testament Book of Zechariah. And of course we think of the Four Horsemen of Notre Dame, from a famo...
by nedsaid
Tue Feb 06, 2018 10:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1250
Views: 186600

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

It looks like QSPIX acted like bonds, which is okay. If I was a QSPIX investor, I would expect higher than the 2-3% return that you will get out of bonds over the next decade. If you do all the fancy stuff and still have the return of bonds, you may as well just be in bonds. If I owned this fund, I...
by nedsaid
Tue Feb 06, 2018 10:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1250
Views: 186600

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

It looks like QSPIX acted like bonds, which is okay. If I was a QSPIX investor, I would expect higher than the 2-3% return that you will get out of bonds over the next decade. If you do all the fancy stuff and still have the return of bonds, you may as well just be in bonds. If I owned this fund, I...
by nedsaid
Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1250
Views: 186600

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

So it looks like QSPIX acted pretty much like bonds during this period of market turbulence. Probably some people were fantasizing that this fund would shoot straight up. My guess is that it is doing about what it is designed to do. The question is, is this a better diversifier than plain old bonds...
by nedsaid
Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1250
Views: 186600

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

So it looks like QSPIX acted pretty much like bonds during this period of market turbulence. Probably some people were fantasizing that this fund would shoot straight up. My guess is that it is doing about what it is designed to do. The question is, is this a better diversifier than plain old bonds...
by nedsaid
Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?
Replies: 309
Views: 30417

Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Actually, I kind of miss the bull market. Hopefully this dip is temporary.
by nedsaid
Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1250
Views: 186600

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

So it looks like QSPIX acted pretty much like bonds during this period of market turbulence. Probably some people were fantasizing that this fund would shoot straight up. My guess is that it is doing about what it is designed to do. The question is, is this a better diversifier than plain old bonds?...
by nedsaid
Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hitting The Sell Button
Replies: 226
Views: 27187

Re: Hitting The Sell Button

I just checked my asset allocation and it is exactly the same. Gee whiz, how can that be? My guess is that bonds have fallen a little bit too. It just doesn't make sense. Hi nedsaid...Last month, when you posted the thread, I remember writing to you about it. What you seemed to be saying [what I in...
by nedsaid
Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 5600
Views: 1266141

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Fourth, valuations matter and matter a lot. I was getting a bit uneasy at Forward P/E ratios in the market getting to almost 22. Lots of optimism there. We were getting to where the market was pricing in a perfect investing environment, which almost never exists in the real world. Somebody at a hed...
by nedsaid
Mon Feb 05, 2018 9:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RBD alert [Really Bad Day]
Replies: 86
Views: 10072

Re: RBD alert [Really Bad Day]

About the only good thing about this sudden downdraft in the stock market is that I won't have to worry about rebalancing for a while. My decision to gently rebalance from stocks to bonds as the market kept hitting new highs looks pretty good now. I started this process in July 2013 and continued u...
by nedsaid
Mon Feb 05, 2018 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong
Replies: 125
Views: 10423

Re: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong

Forward P/E's of the US Total Stock Market Index, at least as measured by the Fidelity product are about 20. They had crept up to almost 22. That seems more reasonable valuations. Isn't forward P/E all garbage and guesses? Well, it is what we have to work with. Quite often, earnings forecasts are o...