Search found 10153 matches

by nedsaid
Thu Sep 20, 2018 10:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In defense of Hedge Funds
Replies: 19
Views: 984

Re: In defense of Hedge Funds

Um...stock index funds do take into account the returns of companies in the index that fail... Explain please. Stock indexes will sometimes remove companies that fail to meet some criteria (e.g. share price, profitability, liquidity, etc.) but they include the performance of those companies in the ...
by nedsaid
Thu Sep 20, 2018 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robert Shiller interview: "Market could get a lot higher"
Replies: 28
Views: 4233

Re: Robert Shiller interview: "Market could get a lot higher"

The Shiller P/E 10 or CAPE is a good idea. Benjamin Graham discussed the idea of smoothing out earnings way back when. It is a good idea to look to the past to get an idea of what might happen in the future. Problem is, nothing is foolproof. For one thing, changes in Generally Accepted Accounting Pr...
by nedsaid
Thu Sep 20, 2018 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In defense of Hedge Funds
Replies: 19
Views: 984

Re: In defense of Hedge Funds

edge wrote:
Thu Sep 20, 2018 10:13 am
Um...stock index funds do take into account the returns of companies in the index that fail...
Explain please.
by nedsaid
Thu Sep 20, 2018 9:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In defense of Hedge Funds
Replies: 19
Views: 984

Re: In defense of Hedge Funds

How about survivorship bias? Good luck. Everything is survivorship bias. It is a really overused term in my opinion. Even the broad indexes exhibit survivorship bias. As far as I know, no one born in 1865 is still living. In the same way, a whole lot of companies that existed then don't exist today...
by nedsaid
Thu Sep 20, 2018 9:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In defense of Hedge Funds
Replies: 19
Views: 984

Re: In defense of Hedge Funds

How about survivorship bias? Good luck. Everything is survivorship bias. It is a really overused term in my opinion. Even the broad indexes exhibit survivorship bias. As far as I know, no one born in 1865 is still living. In the same way, a whole lot of companies that existed then don't exist today...
by nedsaid
Thu Sep 20, 2018 9:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are We Headed For A Passive Index Meltdown?
Replies: 12
Views: 1970

Re: Are We Headed For A Passive Index Meltdown?

The Hedge Funds and the Factor Funds will keep the markets efficient. Active management is not going away either but I expect passive to increase its market share.
by nedsaid
Tue Sep 18, 2018 7:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 248
Views: 23087

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

MJW wrote:
Tue Sep 18, 2018 7:19 pm
I think now is a great time to throw the rest of my savings into the market...maybe even take out a loan to sweeten the pot!
Well, today was a good up day but yesterday was a down day. You missed your chance. :wink:
by nedsaid
Tue Sep 18, 2018 7:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6844
Views: 1495091

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I last rebalanced back in December 2017. Continuing on my program of mild rebalancing that has continued since July 2013. So I am five years into this program. My rebalancing is mild as each time I have sold 1% or less each time. That should put me at about 65% stocks and 35% bonds and cash. Market...
by nedsaid
Tue Sep 18, 2018 7:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 248
Views: 23087

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

After yesterday's 'buying opportunity', stocks are right back up. The S&P 500 index is up 0.61% so far today :D . I admit it. I posted in the "freefall" thread yesterday because I wanted the markets to go up so that I could rebalance. A few folks responded and by golly the market was up strongly to...
by nedsaid
Tue Sep 18, 2018 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 248
Views: 23087

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

After yesterday's 'buying opportunity', stocks are right back up. The S&P 500 index is up 0.61% so far today :D . I admit it. I posted in the "freefall" thread yesterday because I wanted the markets to go up so that I could rebalance. A few folks responded and by golly the market was up strongly to...
by nedsaid
Tue Sep 18, 2018 7:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6844
Views: 1495091

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I last rebalanced back in December 2017. Continuing on my program of mild rebalancing that has continued since July 2013. So I am five years into this program. My rebalancing is mild as each time I have sold 1% or less each time. That should put me at about 65% stocks and 35% bonds and cash. Market...
by nedsaid
Tue Sep 18, 2018 2:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 248
Views: 23087

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

After yesterday's 'buying opportunity', stocks are right back up. The S&P 500 index is up 0.61% so far today :D . I admit it. I posted in the "freefall" thread yesterday because I wanted the markets to go up so that I could rebalance. A few folks responded and by golly the market was up strongly to...
by nedsaid
Tue Sep 18, 2018 2:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6844
Views: 1495091

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Dow is down 92 points, S&P down 16, and the Nazz down 114. Could this be the start of a correction? Pretty much, I want the market at all time highs and to rebalance my portfolio again. So if this thread gets going again, maybe it will rally. Pretty much, since that darned "Soar" thread started, th...
by nedsaid
Mon Sep 17, 2018 7:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unchanging opinions
Replies: 25
Views: 2151

Re: UNCHANGING OPINIONS

I remember the days when basic research would be done and we would just let it go where ever the facts would lead. Today, it seems that research must have a predetermined result. There were never days when basic research would be done and let it go where ever the facts would lead. Never. Sure, some...
by nedsaid
Mon Sep 17, 2018 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: CalSTRS Pension - Does refund of contributions make sense?
Replies: 7
Views: 657

Re: CalSTRS Pension - Does refund of contributions make sense?

This gets to where you almost need an actuary to figure out if you are getting a good deal. My rule of thumb is that pensions are hard to get nowadays and that in most cases you are better off with the pension rather than a lump sum. The problem here is that California has a pension crisis on their ...
by nedsaid
Mon Sep 17, 2018 6:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6844
Views: 1495091

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Dow is down 92 points, S&P down 16, and the Nazz down 114. Could this be the start of a correction? Pretty much, I want the market at all time highs and to rebalance my portfolio again. So if this thread gets going again, maybe it will rally. Pretty much, since that darned "Soar" thread started, the...
by nedsaid
Mon Sep 17, 2018 6:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Personal Advisor - .30%
Replies: 23
Views: 3039

Re: Vanguard Personal Advisor - .33%

IMO, Vanguard PAS is good for investors that may not fully trust themselves to stay the course. With PAS, you cannot make changes to your portfolio. You must follow their plan and any changes from that plan require a consultation with an adviser. Sometimes that's enough to keep someone from making ...
by nedsaid
Mon Sep 17, 2018 6:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unchanging opinions
Replies: 25
Views: 2151

Re: UNCHANGING OPINIONS

I can't tell you how many times "new information" from studies turned out to be just plain wrong. I think of the studies that told me that coffee was bad for you. Not too long afterwards, you would learn that coffee was good for you. Same with eggs. There is a surprising number of scientific studie...
by nedsaid
Mon Sep 17, 2018 9:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unchanging opinions
Replies: 25
Views: 2151

Re: UNCHANGING OPINIONS

I can't tell you how many times "new information" from studies turned out to be just plain wrong. I think of the studies that told me that coffee was bad for you. Not too long afterwards, you would learn that coffee was good for you. Same with eggs. There is a surprising number of scientific studies...
by nedsaid
Mon Sep 17, 2018 9:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Costly race to bottom on mutual fund fees”
Replies: 13
Views: 1743

Re: “Costly race to bottom on mutual fund fees”

My take on the article is that low fees CAN lead to bad investor behavior, such as frequent trading, but it isn't necessarily so. I would say this is not a problem for most Bogleheads, who tend to be buy and hold. I just don't believe that Fidelity Zero Funds are going to suddenly cause buy-and-hold...
by nedsaid
Sun Sep 16, 2018 4:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Question [about Vanguard's asset allocation recommendations]
Replies: 10
Views: 1152

Re: A Question for the Bogleheads

If you are a follower of Vanguard/Bogle methodology, you should care very much about what Vanguard thinks. It appears that Vanguard is disagreeing a bit with their founder. For example, Vanguard has upped their International allocation of stocks from 20% to 30% and now 40%. Bogle would recommend a m...
by nedsaid
Sun Sep 16, 2018 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are the "best" factors?
Replies: 19
Views: 1120

Re: What are the "best" factors?

Allocating to a 3-fund portfolio is easy for DIY, but it seems like factor investing is less straightforward. I can see why this approach is being promoted today, as it necessitates all manner of funds and advisors, which is an opportunity for fees. Although I don't think factor investing is quite ...
by nedsaid
Sun Sep 16, 2018 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Opinions on American Funds
Replies: 28
Views: 1833

Re: Opinions on American Funds

They are respectable funds that have done well, but the expenses don’t justify the potential benefits in the future. JT This. Also, I can’t really tell what exactly is in each fund. My Af funds didfairly well going through the great recession. I have sold and then bought Fidelity indexfunds. I nowk...
by nedsaid
Sun Sep 16, 2018 3:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Considering Quitting Job - Seeking Advice. Would you do it?
Replies: 126
Views: 8156

Re: Considering Quitting Job - Seeking Advice. Would you do it?

Camillus: To me, a methodical and graceful resignation will come across better to other employers than getting fired. Should I end up never working again, then I agree. There is no way to reduce hours. The nature of the work is driven by requests from above.....senior management requests data, lost...
by nedsaid
Sun Sep 16, 2018 3:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Mom has retired and I need to help
Replies: 12
Views: 2076

Re: Mom has retired and I need to help

My mom has recently retired. She really knows nothing about investing. I am about a year in to a self-education that started with the Bogleheads Guide to Investing and now includes much reading/listening to the WCI, JL Collins, and these forums. Just when I think I've got my own portfolio figured o...
by nedsaid
Sun Sep 16, 2018 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Parent's variable annuity - rollover?
Replies: 6
Views: 324

Re: Parent's variable annuity - rollover?

You could rollover into a much cheaper Vanguard or Fidelity Variable Annuity. The amounts in your dad's annuity are small enough ($10K or so) that I probably wouldn't bother.
by nedsaid
Sun Sep 16, 2018 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are the "best" factors?
Replies: 19
Views: 1120

Re: What are the "best" factors?

Oddly enough, Momentum seems to be the best factor. Sometime ago, I saw an article, I think it was a Larry Swedroe article, that showed that Momentum had the best returns and was most persistent. I was pretty surprised. I would have thought that Value was the best. My guess is that Quality/Profitabi...
by nedsaid
Sun Sep 16, 2018 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Bull Markets Are Dangerous
Replies: 152
Views: 16345

Re: Why Bull Markets Are Dangerous

Your mom is an indication that we might be getting too confident. But so far, I haven't heard of people quitting their jobs to day trade as they did during the late 1990's. I am not seeing the market euphoria out there but certainly optimism has increased. People are / were doing this now, but with...
by nedsaid
Sun Sep 16, 2018 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Employer won't Match 401k. Why?
Replies: 52
Views: 5325

Re: Employer won't Match 401k. Why?

A 401K can legally have up to $55.5K put into it per year. That's $18.5K pretax from the employee, up to 100% pretax match from employer, and additional 18.5K post tax from employee "if your plan allows." First, please correct me if I got any part of that wrong. Second, who decides and how is it de...
by nedsaid
Sun Sep 16, 2018 6:13 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Opinions on American Funds
Replies: 28
Views: 1833

Re: Opinions on American Funds

Hello all, I've traditionally been a passive index investor. My new job offers a Simple IRA through Wells Fargo Advisors. I met with the advisor yesterday to discuss options. She recommends American Funds for the fact that they have low expense ratios and fees similar to index funds, but are active...
by nedsaid
Sun Sep 16, 2018 6:05 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Employer won't Match 401k. Why?
Replies: 52
Views: 5325

Re: Employer won't Match 401k. Why?

A 401K can legally have up to $55.5K put into it per year. That's $18.5K pretax from the employee, up to 100% pretax match from employer, and additional 18.5K post tax from employee "if your plan allows." First, please correct me if I got any part of that wrong. Second, who decides and how is it de...
by nedsaid
Sun Sep 16, 2018 6:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Disrupted Expectations
Replies: 53
Views: 6000

Re: Larry Swedroe: Disrupted Expectations

I think how much valuation matters is dependent upon your investment horizon and your distribution of your contributions. The longer your investment horizon the less valuations matter as long as you are investing in market where as a shareholder you can reap the rewards of your investment like the ...
by nedsaid
Sat Sep 15, 2018 9:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round
Replies: 53
Views: 4843

Re: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round

I suppose one could think that Ray Dalio is deliberately talking down the markets so that his hedge fund will benefit. I don't believe this to be the case, he seems like a straight shooter with the integrity to express his views openly without a hidden agenda. He thinks about market risks all the t...
by nedsaid
Fri Sep 14, 2018 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pension alternatives
Replies: 40
Views: 2904

Re: Pension alternatives

I start this thread assuming it will be a debate, and that most of you will not like my idea. I'm okay with this because critique, more ideas, opinions and perspectives to consider can usually drive decision quality. I don't have a pension. I will have social security. I would like additional stead...
by nedsaid
Fri Sep 14, 2018 8:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?
Replies: 80
Views: 5065

Re: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?

elysium Even if we were to consider all the evidence for the factors to be present, how do we know the screens they employ are able to accurately select those displaying positive factors while avoiding the ones with negative factors, consistently, especially given there are so many factors to scree...
by nedsaid
Fri Sep 14, 2018 8:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Commodities have never been cheaper - time to buy?
Replies: 44
Views: 4467

Re: Commodities have never been cheaper - time to buy?

...Despite our intellectual understanding that it makes sense to buy the unloved and sell what everyone wants... I have no such "understanding." What you have described is simply one of many active investing strategies, such as "growth at a reasonable price." This one is just "contrarian investing....
by nedsaid
Thu Sep 13, 2018 9:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?
Replies: 80
Views: 5065

Re: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?

It isn't fair to blame this on one Administration. The problem had been building for over 30 years. Lots of little policy errors over time that built into a crisis. We forgot that for the system to work that you grant mortgages to people who can actually pay them back. Lots of blame to go around. V...
by nedsaid
Thu Sep 13, 2018 8:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?
Replies: 80
Views: 5065

Re: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?

It also was a case of privatizing the profits and socializing the risks. This was particularly true of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. So pretty much, for CEOs of certain companies, it was heads I win, tails the taxpayers lose. I own a few financial stocks, the damage from the financial crisis was temp...
by nedsaid
Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round
Replies: 53
Views: 4843

Re: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round

I suppose one could think that Ray Dalio is deliberately talking down the markets so that his hedge fund will benefit. I don't believe this to be the case, he seems like a straight shooter with the integrity to express his views openly without a hidden agenda. He thinks about market risks all the ti...
by nedsaid
Thu Sep 13, 2018 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round
Replies: 53
Views: 4843

Re: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round

foo.c wrote:
Thu Sep 13, 2018 11:41 am
A weak dollar would be a boon to domestic manufacturers.
Yep. I told you this stuff is complex. That is why making economic predictions is so difficult. No matter how much you know, there is something else going on out there you don't know about.
by nedsaid
Thu Sep 13, 2018 11:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?
Replies: 80
Views: 5065

Re: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?

larryswedroe wrote:
Thu Sep 13, 2018 11:16 am
Nedsaid
Agree completely and love the producers analogy
Hey Larry, I am starting up a new Broadway production. Do you want to invest? :wink: :wink:
by nedsaid
Thu Sep 13, 2018 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round
Replies: 53
Views: 4843

Re: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round

Ray Dalio has made it his business to assess investment risk. He and lots of smart people around him think about risks 24-7, trying to stay ahead of the curve. So what I would say is that his track record as a Hedge Fund manager is excellent. Doesn't mean that he is right about everything but he is ...
by nedsaid
Thu Sep 13, 2018 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?
Replies: 80
Views: 5065

Re: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?

That article is really poor, missing so much of what caused the problem. It totally misses the huge frauds in appraisals that allowed for much of the problem to happen and the total failure of state mortgage banking regulators to do anything about it, even though it was well known what was occurrin...
by nedsaid
Thu Sep 13, 2018 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good time to do value investing?
Replies: 37
Views: 2477

Re: Good time to do value investing?

Nedsaid: I would say that inflation feels like it is ticking up. Housing and healthcare are a couple areas I have seen inflation pressures. Objectively, harder to say, feelings are not facts. Other things keep falling in price too, particularly with such things as consumer electronics. The laptop I...
by nedsaid
Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?
Replies: 80
Views: 5065

Re: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?

With all due respect, mathematical models based on academic research and theories devised by well qualified army of PhDs also gave us the sub-prime lending crisis that led to near financial collapse. This statement is so wrong it shows totally a lack of knowledge of the situation. The collapse lite...
by nedsaid
Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Benchmark Smoke And Mirrors
Replies: 14
Views: 1132

Re: Larry Swedroe: Benchmark Smoke And Mirrors

Earlier this week I was somewhat lambasted for making the comment that I had been told that DFA funds sort of serve as their own benchmarks and that I had begun to see the wisdom in that statement. Every fund is different. No fund is going to have the exact same factor loadings as another benchmark...
by nedsaid
Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Benchmark Smoke And Mirrors
Replies: 14
Views: 1132

Re: Larry Swedroe: Benchmark Smoke And Mirrors

This is why I like to benchmark with Vanguard Index Funds. Real life funds trying to match real life indexes plus Vanguard is pretty darned good at indexing.
by nedsaid
Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?
Replies: 80
Views: 5065

Re: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?

The collapse literally had nothing to do with any models or theories. NOTHING. And I know well as I was vice chairman of one of the largest mortgage companies in the country. It had everything to do with a) government policy pushing "affordable housing" which kept lowering the standards for which l...
by nedsaid
Wed Sep 12, 2018 8:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can you time the forex market?
Replies: 10
Views: 646

Re: Can you time the forex market?

Hi there, let's say if I frequently purchase US Dollars using Chinese yuan. And right now you know China is manipulating Chinese yuan, artificially depreciating it to make Chinese goods and services more attractive. Can I predict the movement of the CNY- USD market so that I can acquire USD at chea...