Search found 19158 matches

by nedsaid
Sun Mar 17, 2024 1:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Windows 10 Patch Tuesday problems
Replies: 30
Views: 5303

Re: Windows 10 Patch Tuesday problems

Why doesn't Microsoft break these updates into smaller pieces so that the updates can more easily install on older machines? It just seems that they issue these monster updates sometimes that are just too much for older machines to handle, though they theoretically have enough memory to run the operating system. It just seems that the operating system gets bigger and more bloated with each update and eventually the updates just won't work anymore. Bad habit that Microsoft has of understanding the actual system requirements for their operating systems. From what I can tell, Microsoft wants you to ditch your old computers, consign them to the landfill and buy bright new PCs that can handle Windows 11. Microsoft's sneaky KB5001716 Windows 10 ...
by nedsaid
Sun Mar 17, 2024 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: More Evidence Against Factor Investing
Replies: 473
Views: 33814

Re: More Evidence Against Factor Investing

To me, Merriman’s portfolio is a prime example of “diworsification.” An investor who seeks the “free lunch” of diversification buys a bunch of highly correlated funds and ends up with a grab bag of funds that generally accomplish the same thing just in a less efficient, more complicated way. I think true diversification comes with different asset classes: stocks, bonds, real estate (not-REITs) commodities, private equity, or others. I don’t think you achieve the same goals at least to the same degree by dividing an asset class like stocks into correlated sub-asset classes based on size and value. McQ had great threads on Markowitzian diversification and I recommend them to other readers. They are that good. You raise the important question...
by nedsaid
Sun Mar 17, 2024 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: More Evidence Against Factor Investing
Replies: 473
Views: 33814

Re: More Evidence Against Factor Investing

What I have tried and apparently failed to get across is a pretty simple idea. Investors, be prepared to deal with ambiguity or you will be endlessly frustrated. In other words, theory and practice are two different things but you still need theory. Lots of things in finance and even in life in general are fuzzy and slippery. I wish it wasn't true in the experience of life but alas, it is. Sorry, sports fans to be a bearer of bad news but I have chosen to be the one who delivers it. It isn't popular because we want everything to be clean, easy to explain, and easy to understand. Sadly, it just ain't so. Some things are just not so easy to understand. Not sure why you think you've failed. Many of us already know that we're viewing things, a...
by nedsaid
Sun Mar 17, 2024 12:02 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: how to disable "See results closer to you?" - Chrome
Replies: 25
Views: 1967

Re: how to disable "See results closer to you?" - Chrome

LOL!!! Resistance is futile. You will be assimilated.
by nedsaid
Sun Mar 17, 2024 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: More Evidence Against Factor Investing
Replies: 473
Views: 33814

Re: More Evidence Against Factor Investing

What I have tried and apparently failed to get across is a pretty simple idea. Investors, be prepared to deal with ambiguity or you will be endlessly frustrated. In other words, theory and practice are two different things but you still need theory.

Lots of things in finance and even in life in general are fuzzy and slippery. I wish it wasn't true in the experience of life but alas, it is. Sorry, sports fans to be a bearer of bad news but I have chosen to be the one who delivers it. It isn't popular because we want everything to be clean, easy to explain, and easy to understand. Sadly, it just ain't so. Some things are just not so easy to understand.
by nedsaid
Sun Mar 17, 2024 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: More Evidence Against Factor Investing
Replies: 473
Views: 33814

Re: More Evidence Against Factor Investing

In the ideal Nedsaid world, diversification perfectly exists in a portfolio where you have 3-4 asset classes with very similar performance but where correlation between them hovers around zero. Paul Merriman has expressed this in the construction of his portfolios. No, he hasn't. According to PortfolioVisualizer, the FundAdvice (Merriman) Ultimate Buy-and-hold Portfolio is VFINX Vanguard 500 Index Investor 6.00% VIVAX Vanguard Value Index Inv 6.00% NAESX Vanguard Small Cap Index Inv 6.00% VISVX Vanguard Small Cap Value Index Inv 6.00% VGSIX Vanguard Real Estate Index Investor 6.00% VTMGX Vanguard Developed Markets Index Admiral 12.00% VEIEX Vanguard Emerging Mkts Stock Idx Inv 6.00% EFV iShares MSCI EAFE Value ETF 12.00% VFITX Vanguard Int...
by nedsaid
Sun Mar 17, 2024 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: More Evidence Against Factor Investing
Replies: 473
Views: 33814

Re: More Evidence Against Factor Investing

[Image of McQ standing, tapping baton against open palm] What we have here is a failure to communicate. I’ve reposted below a recent journal paper that I posted earlier in the thread. Let me note: 1. It’s from 2023, four years after the Harvey et al. paper that nisiprius cited; 2. It’s title directly addresses the Harvey et al. paper; 3. It appears in the #1 ranked peer-reviewed journal in Finance; 4. Using the largest and most comprehensive data set yet seen, global as well as US, it finds robust statistical evidence for a dozen or so factors. It’s over, folks: the academic research has moved well beyond the days of “There were problems in the Banz data,” or “Factor effects seem to be arbitraged away once discovered,” and other hoary ches...
by nedsaid
Sun Mar 17, 2024 10:49 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What should I do with a deferred annuity?
Replies: 15
Views: 1367

Re: What should I do with a deferred annuity?

Dear BHs - I am trying to decide what to do with a small personal retirement annuity account that I set up through Fidelity during a weak moment with one of their advisors - I maxed out my 401k and wanted another place to save, and didn’t want to put any more into my deferred comp. It is a tax deferred savings variable annuity vehicle that eventually (like when I’m 95) would have to be annuitized. If take withdrawals I pay tax on earnings but not on my after tax contributions (it is up about 20% since I set it up and made monthly contributions of $1000 for a few years). I had a hazy plan when I set it up that I would grow it to 250k or so and it would eventually be part of my self funded LTC account/ guaranteed income stream when I am olde...
by nedsaid
Sun Mar 17, 2024 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: More Evidence Against Factor Investing
Replies: 473
Views: 33814

Re: More Evidence Against Factor Investing

I don't understand that chart. What is "the" correlation of a portfolio with 10 assets? Are they assumed to be equally weighed? Continuously rebalanced? Does 0% correlation mean that each of the 45 pairs of assets has zero correlation? Is "return-to-risk ratio" the Sharpe ratio? ... If not, what is he using instead? What is his preferred measure of "risk?"... If "probability of losing money in a given year" is his chosen figure of merit, so be it, but it seems odd to me... I would assume 0 correlation. Between what and what? But I would say it's primarily about demonstrating the principle of diversification. You've missed the point of my question. I'm not looking for "a pictorial illustration of...
by nedsaid
Sun Mar 17, 2024 10:24 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Windows 10 Patch Tuesday problems
Replies: 30
Views: 5303

Re: Windows 10 Patch Tuesday problems

KB5034763 Cumulative Update for Windows 10 Version 22H2 for x64 based systems just installed flawlessly on my Desktop machine. I guess Microsoft just bypassed the KB5034441 update that failed to install on a lot of machines. Later on, I will try the new update on my Laptop. Yesterday, KB5034763 successfully installed on my Surface laptop with Windows 10 Home Edition, but KB5034441, which was part of the monthly update package, failed the same as last month. So Microsoft still has some work to do. Why doesn't Microsoft break these updates into smaller pieces so that the updates can more easily install on older machines? It just seems that they issue these monster updates sometimes that are just too much for older machines to handle, though ...
by nedsaid
Sun Mar 17, 2024 10:18 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What should I do with a deferred annuity?
Replies: 15
Views: 1367

Re: What should I do with a deferred annuity?

Dear BHs - I am trying to decide what to do with a small personal retirement annuity account that I set up through Fidelity during a weak moment with one of their advisors - I maxed out my 401k and wanted another place to save, and didn’t want to put any more into my deferred comp. It is a tax deferred savings variable annuity vehicle that eventually (like when I’m 95) would have to be annuitized. If take withdrawals I pay tax on earnings but not on my after tax contributions (it is up about 20% since I set it up and made monthly contributions of $1000 for a few years). I had a hazy plan when I set it up that I would grow it to 250k or so and it would eventually be part of my self funded LTC account/ guaranteed income stream when I am olde...
by nedsaid
Sat Mar 16, 2024 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: More Evidence Against Factor Investing
Replies: 473
Views: 33814

Re: More Evidence Against Factor Investing

Tech/growth has indeed gotten "too" popular, reprising the dot-com era. It's easy to pan rank amateurs who are chasing the latest-latest, only to be rudely disabused. But I wonder... suppose that someone held tech/growth through many of these boom/bust cycles, with BH-style stolid patience, but un-BH emphasis on what might be termed speculative. Would such an investor be, as you phrase it so piquantly, in a better financial situation today? A major issue is that tech tends to align with large-cap. The S&P 500 is dominated by tech. Investors who overweight small-cap or mid-cap are implicitly underweighting tech. Thus the small-cap premium - a much-storied "factor" - is either diminished or outright reversed. A more c...
by nedsaid
Sat Mar 16, 2024 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Great news! No more [fixed real estate] agent commission
Replies: 163
Views: 15071

Re: Great news! No more [fixed real estate] agent commission

Real Estate Agents can generate value. I will just say that my family sold a property that was hard to sell for various reasons and a determined agent was able to get it done. Their efforts were worth every penny of commission paid. I know this isn't always true but I wonder about the unintended consequences of the change. We will see.
by nedsaid
Sat Mar 16, 2024 3:26 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What should I do with a deferred annuity?
Replies: 15
Views: 1367

Re: What should I do with a deferred annuity?

Thank you everyone for your thoughtful and informative replies! I need to do some more research on eventual drawdown / conversion options but for now I am going to hang on to the annuity - my RMDs will be at 75, and I will have some “gaps” to fill at lower tax brackets in that time. However for now I am directing any future “excess” savings to my taxable account (vs the annuity) so that I can balance my taxable vs tax deferred vs Roth balances. Investing in taxable accounts with your excess savings is a good move. That way you can sell stock investments and receive favorable capital gains treatment. Withdrawals from the annuity, to the extent that you have gain, are distributed as ordinary income. The portion of withdrawals that represent ...
by nedsaid
Sat Mar 16, 2024 3:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What should I do with a deferred annuity?
Replies: 15
Views: 1367

Re: What should I do with a deferred annuity?

Dear BHs - I am trying to decide what to do with a small personal retirement annuity account that I set up through Fidelity during a weak moment with one of their advisors - I maxed out my 401k and wanted another place to save, and didn’t want to put any more into my deferred comp. It is a tax deferred savings variable annuity vehicle that eventually (like when I’m 95) would have to be annuitized. If take withdrawals I pay tax on earnings but not on my after tax contributions (it is up about 20% since I set it up and made monthly contributions of $1000 for a few years). I had a hazy plan when I set it up that I would grow it to 250k or so and it would eventually be part of my self funded LTC account/ guaranteed income stream when I am olde...
by nedsaid
Sat Mar 16, 2024 3:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: More Evidence Against Factor Investing
Replies: 473
Views: 33814

Re: More Evidence Against Factor Investing

My gosh, even the most inexperienced and naive investors realize that High Tech stocks behave differently than Utility stocks. This is factors in action, people can see this and they know that not all stocks behave the same. This is a big reason that I use the analogy of sector investing to help explain factors. Would we aver that over very long periods of time - say, 50 years - tech stocks outperform utilities? Then an investor with an iron stomach, no concern for sequence of returns risk, and an indefinitely long horizon, would hold a large QQQ position, or maybe VGT. Is that consist with BH principles? From what I've observed on the Forum, QQQ/VGT are viewed askance, as cautionary reductions-to-the-absurd of recency bias, performance ch...
by nedsaid
Sat Mar 16, 2024 1:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Announces CEO Retirement and Appointment of President
Replies: 371
Views: 34676

Re: Vanguard Announces CEO Retirement and Appointment of President

Flagship status meant something when expense ratios were much higher. Today a $1 million account might mean a lot to you but to Vanguard it amounts to around $400 a year. A lot of people spend more than that at Starbucks. It hardly makes you a special customer. So I guess Vanguard should only keep the 8 billionaires who have accounts there and close the other 50 million accounts? That would be stupid. Why would they do that? Would Starbucks turn away all customers that didn't spend $400 a year? You're saying these accounts mean little to Vanguard. No, I did not say that. [Unnecessary comment removed. Moderator Pops1860] I said they were nothing special. They are like lots of the other 50 million accounts. There are a lot of benefits to the...
by nedsaid
Sat Mar 16, 2024 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: More Evidence Against Factor Investing
Replies: 473
Views: 33814

Re: More Evidence Against Factor Investing

...My read is that Logan is using a hypothetical "A" factor as a joke to highlight the "factor zoo" phenomenon whereby new "factors" can be conjured by anyone looking at a dataset retrospectively and identifying anomalies that are most likely due to chance. That's the definition of "data-mining."... And to me, the "'factor zoo' phenomenon" is itself evidence against the validity of factor research. In Campbell R. Harvey and Yan Liu (2019), A Census of the Factor Zoo , we read--emphasis supplied: We document over 400 factors published in top journals . Surely, many of them are false. We explore the incentives that lead to factor mining and explore reasons why many of the factors are simply l...
by nedsaid
Sat Mar 16, 2024 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: More Evidence Against Factor Investing
Replies: 473
Views: 33814

Re: More Evidence Against Factor Investing

Can anyone please explain how the discussion from the past couple pages necessarily varies considerably from the following discussion of bond duration positioning? My contention was that long-term bonds appeared too expensive for my personal considerations. The reply was basically that under one definition for risk, long-term bonds provided higher expected future returns. I contended the given theory was not in line my own considerations. Essentially I was not operating under the presumptions included in the offered definition for risk, so I disagreed with the expected return concept of duration that followed. Anyway, I'm failing to understand how the recent discussion considerably varies. Different market participants likely have non-matc...
by nedsaid
Sat Mar 16, 2024 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: More Evidence Against Factor Investing
Replies: 473
Views: 33814

Re: More Evidence Against Factor Investing

Yes, because there’s more uncertainty of outcomes and there’s always a higher discount rate to command higher expected returns That is a fascinating use of logic. Something with higher expected returns is riskier and thus demands a lower price. Therefore we can say the converse is true, that anything cheaper must have higher expected returns. We can now say that QQQ is less risky than AVUV, albeit with lower expected returns from choosing QQQ. It makes me wonder why the highest possible PE investing has not caught on as the lowest risk way to get stock-like returns. We should be loading up on the very highest P/E stocks if we are risk averse. I suspect this line of thinking is not sound. Here is the deal sports fans. First, it is a good id...
by nedsaid
Fri Mar 15, 2024 8:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: More Evidence Against Factor Investing
Replies: 473
Views: 33814

Re: More Evidence Against Factor Investing

It is pretty much acknowledged the size factor never existed as statistically significant after the data was corrected for delisting biases. So here's one more (anecdotal) data point that what is "pretty much acknowledged" by factor cognoscenti is not what is reaching the general public: I have enjoyed the Target-Date Fund as a one-stop shop for our retirement accounts. However the work of Paul Merriman is very convincing. Overweighting small-cap stocks and possibly small-cap value stocks seems to be a good bet for excess returns. Our time period is about 30 years to retirement, so we have a very long holding period. Where is the current research on the general market cap index fund vs including some overweighting? Thank you! I s...
by nedsaid
Wed Mar 13, 2024 7:23 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Financial Advisor says my portfolio is akin to a retiree at age 34
Replies: 80
Views: 8052

Re: Financial Advisor says my portfolio is akin to a retiree at age 34

Thanks all for the encouragement and advice! To answer some of the oft repeated questions about the FA and the management firm. The firm is Janney Capital Management. So, I met a bunch of neighbors at a neighborhood gathering who are all at least >50 years old and all of them 100% wealthier than I am. The demographic consists of people who are well versed in financial matters and others who have no idea what a stock/bond is and more or less born into wealth. A significant percent of both these groups had their wealth in asset management firms. Surprisingly, the ones who were fluent in finance admitted that their FA tends to do less well than the S&P500 along with higher fees. Yet, they were happily part of the Asset Management as it wa...
by nedsaid
Tue Mar 12, 2024 8:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why my mom will continue to need a financial advisor
Replies: 23
Views: 2086

Re: Why my mom will continue to need a financial advisor

BogleTaxPro wrote: Tue Mar 12, 2024 8:47 pm Vita has an income limit but AARP tax aide does not. Your mom sounds like she'll fit our scope. Our sites are back to doing in person one visit tax prep. It does vary by state and district though. Sites that only do appointments may already be booked but we have sites that do walk-in. Visit AARP tax aide locator and type in your zip.
I have sent a number of people to AARP over the years, folks who couldn't afford to pay tax preparation fees. I have a high opinion of their volunteer tax service. Once had a co-worker who volunteered for this, I was impressed with the training program that AARP had based upon what he told me. My co-worker had a positive experience doing this and felt good about helping others.
by nedsaid
Tue Mar 12, 2024 8:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why my mom will continue to need a financial advisor
Replies: 23
Views: 2086

Re: Why my mom will continue to need a financial advisor

We can, and have, had them done for $0 at the senior center, just have to remember to make an appt in Jan. I believe it’s done through AARP. The down side is since Covid, you don’t sit down with the preparer. You fill out some questionnaire’s, drop them off on you appt day, then they call you later that once completed. You pick em up, look thru them, sign if you have no issues, drop them off and get a copy. It works but feels kind of strange as it’s completely impersonal. I did taxes part-time and full time for 28 years. Over the years, I saw a number of returns done by the AARP volunteers and never saw a problem with them. They seem to do a good job with quality control. They won't do complex returns as the intent is to help lower income ...
by nedsaid
Tue Mar 12, 2024 8:26 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Financial Advisor says my portfolio is akin to a retiree at age 34
Replies: 80
Views: 8052

Re: Financial Advisor says my portfolio is akin to a retiree at age 34

harsha1 wrote: Tue Mar 12, 2024 7:55 am

Yes, the FA was affiliated to a management firm. They came onto me after being referred to by a friend who uses their services.
The single session was for a fixed fee. If I chose to take up their services (I didn't want to) the fee was 2.0% AUM
I asked this person to critique my existing portfolio and tell me why they thought it wasn't good.
The survey says, XXX.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y__iv23yVuQ

I would not pay a 2.0% Assets Under Management Fee.
by nedsaid
Tue Mar 12, 2024 7:15 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Financial Advisor says my portfolio is akin to a retiree at age 34
Replies: 80
Views: 8052

Re: Financial Advisor says my portfolio is akin to a retiree at age 34

Wow. Looks to me like you are doing well. I am often pro Advisor here on the forum but not sure you need help managing a portfolio, I think I would get myself a good tax person, preferable a CPA or enrolled agent, and look towards hiring a good Certified Financial Planner on an hourly basis. Don't think you need to pay someone for portfolio management.
by nedsaid
Mon Mar 11, 2024 8:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Want to leave the California bay area. Where to live?
Replies: 63
Views: 5615

Re: Want to leave the California bay area. Where to live?

trojans10 wrote: Sun Mar 10, 2024 10:43 pm [Moved into a new thread from: Is Calif Really That Expensive - Or Am I Missing Something? --admin LadyGeek]

Not to take things off-topic but - if you were mid 30's with 200k income and wanted to leave the bay area - where would you live? The climate in the SF bay area is almost incomparable to any where in the world. Thoughts?
For heaven's sake, whatever you do, don't move to the Pacific Northwest. It rains something like 380 days a year, the skies are always gray, and the people are unfriendly. It is an awful place to live. :wink: (Maybe a little reverse psychology will work here, it seems that my state and my neighboring state are subsidiaries of California, Inc.)
by nedsaid
Mon Mar 11, 2024 8:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Sharing why we went with Vanguard PAS
Replies: 69
Views: 6690

Re: Sharing why we went with Vanguard PAS

hand wrote: Mon Mar 11, 2024 2:00 pm
nedsaid wrote: Sat Mar 09, 2024 11:02 pm I went to investor.com to get a review of Vanguard Personal Advisor Service and found that the average client balance there is $377,050. So the original poster's account balance of about $4 million is more than 10X the average account size at VPAS, so their account will get a lot of attention from Vanguard. Altogether, Vanguard PAS manages $299.2 Billion and that is more assets than some mutual fund companies!
Not sure how much attention $4M in assets really gets in a pool of $299B, especially when only worth 4M * 0.3% = $1k / yr.
$4 million will get you a lot more attention than $50,000.
by nedsaid
Sun Mar 10, 2024 7:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any investors from the 1981 - 1984 time period here???
Replies: 36
Views: 4319

Re: Any investors from the 1981 - 1984 time period here???

I started investing during the summer of 1984, I had just turned 25 years old and was a few months into my first job out of college. My first mutual fund investment was with Twentieth Century Investors in Kansas City, Missouri. I searched mutual fund companies in an investment book that I bought and found this mutual fund company with a good track record, no-load, and no minimum investment. I had $15 or so to invest, so it was a match made in heaven. I still own that mutual fund and the annual capital gains distributions either pay for Christmas or are reinvested as an IRA contribution.
by nedsaid
Sun Mar 10, 2024 7:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: William Bernstein On the Financial Industry
Replies: 81
Views: 9778

Re: William Bernstein On the Financial Industry

Amen. Take a brief mental survey of your family members and close friends. What percentage of them TODAY could do a better job with their own financial planning and investment management than a true fiduciary advisor charging a few thousand a year? That percentage is probably in the single digits for me. The problem isn't that people use advisors. The problem is they don't get good advice at a fair price when they do. Frankly, more people should buy financial advice than do so. That's exactly right. I think what some on this thread find confusing is that there's no inconsistency between that statement and the fact that 95% of advisors and 99% of brokers are harmful to your financial health. One squares that circle by choosing the purchased...
by nedsaid
Sun Mar 10, 2024 12:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Sharing why we went with Vanguard PAS
Replies: 69
Views: 6690

Re: Sharing why we went with Vanguard PAS

Thank you Bertilak and boomer543 for sharing why you went with Vanguard Personal Advisor Service. These issues discussed on the thread are things I have thought about over many years. This forum is a do-it-yourself forum and it is dedicated to investing at very low cost. There are ongoing costs to having an Advisory relationship and even 0.30% a year adds up over time. Yet, all that being said there are good reasons why people seek out Financial Advisors. Dr. Bill Bernstein, who has made criticisms of investment firms and their representatives has also said that most people would benefit from an Advisory relationship and he himself started and ran an Advisory business. I consider myself to be pretty knowledgeable regarding personal finance,...
by nedsaid
Sun Mar 10, 2024 10:32 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Sharing why we went with Vanguard PAS
Replies: 69
Views: 6690

Re: Sharing why we went with Vanguard PAS

I went to investor.com to get a review of Vanguard Personal Advisor Service and found that the average client balance there is $377,050. So the original poster's account balance of about $4 million is more than 10X the average account size at VPAS, so their account will get a lot of attention from Vanguard. Altogether, Vanguard PAS manages $299.2 Billion and that is more assets than some mutual fund companies! Vanguard PAS employs 1,945 advisors. So they are a big player in the Advisory business. Ok - let's do the math . . . according to your posted numbers . . . Vanguard PAS manages $299,200,000,000 portfolio with the average client balance of $377,050: 299,200,000,000 / 377,050 = 793,528.7 clients Vanguard PAS employs 1,945 advisors for ...
by nedsaid
Sat Mar 09, 2024 11:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Sharing why we went with Vanguard PAS
Replies: 69
Views: 6690

Re: Sharing why we went with Vanguard PAS

I went to investor.com to get a review of Vanguard Personal Advisor Service and found that the average client balance there is $377,050. So the original poster's account balance of about $4 million is more than 10X the average account size at VPAS, so their account will get a lot of attention from Vanguard. Altogether, Vanguard PAS manages $299.2 Billion and that is more assets than some mutual fund companies! Vanguard PAS employs 1,945 advisors. So they are a big player in the Advisory business.
by nedsaid
Sat Mar 09, 2024 10:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Sharing why we went with Vanguard PAS
Replies: 69
Views: 6690

Re: Sharing why we went with Vanguard PAS

Just wanted to share with those searching for a financial advisor the reasons why my wife/I went with Vanguard PAS for management of our ira’s and non-ira portfolios (about $4 million). We are both retired and in our early 70’s. Fortunately, our Social Security and pensions more than cover any conceivable current or future event so we will never have to draw on our PAS portfolio except for the minimum RMD’s thus hopefully growing the portfolio in revocable living trusts for our kids and grandkids over a number of years.We started with Vanguard PAS in August 2021 and have been very satisfied. First, the Vanguard PAS advisor we were assigned has made all the difference. He is a CFP and has extensive prior experience with TIAA as a wealth adv...
by nedsaid
Sat Mar 09, 2024 10:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: HP Pension Buyout
Replies: 17
Views: 1875

Re: HP Pension Buyout

It sounds like you were treated badly by HP. You have every reason to be annoyed and angered. But if the attorneys aren’t interested in pursuing class action, I’d just let this one drop. You got what you felt was “close to a fair settlement”. It’s not your job to fight other people’s battles Thats about what I think. Just looking for an objective perspective, so thanks for commenting! You got good advice from Stinky. And you don’t to spend too much energy or time on something when the financial impact has been largely mitigated. Time to move on. Thank you! That's probably what we'll do. And as a bonus, I already replaced my HP laptop with a competitors. H-P was once a very ethical company. In recent years I have been annoyed by them sendin...
by nedsaid
Sat Mar 09, 2024 10:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Do You Like My New 'Doo
Replies: 445
Views: 106020

Re: How Do You Like My New 'Doo

I enjoy you sharing your approach. I am also 64 but retired ~3.5 years. Spent my entire career in research at a major corporation. Began investing in graduate school - Oldie, Brown and Company, etc. discount brokers. Invested in mutual funds based on the Forbes honor roll - Nicholas, Janus, Evergreen, 20th Century. Was a BH without knowing it. Long story short, saving and investing for 35+ years means in hindsight that I should have retired a couple years earlier. If you enjoy your current gig, go as long as you enjoy it, but I suspect you will end up like me with way more assets than I could ever spend. Not a bad problem to have. (I enjoyed my career for 33.5 years, but the last couple under COVID were brutal.) :sharebeer Thanks for your ...
by nedsaid
Sat Mar 09, 2024 9:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: William Bernstein On the Financial Industry
Replies: 81
Views: 9778

Re: William Bernstein On the Financial Industry

We live in a fallen world, even the best of human institutions are far from perfect because the people that populate those institutions are vastly imperfect. Indeed, nedsaid. C.S. Lewis could have been talking about the modern financial industry when he said: "That is the key to history. Terrific energy is expended — civilizations are built up — excellent institutions devised; but each time something goes wrong. Some fatal flaw always brings the selfish and cruel people to the top and it all slides back into misery and ruin." Fallen world, indeed. Thanks for your comments. I have had the good fortune of working for mostly good employers with high ideals. What I found was that even the better organizations had their flaws. A famil...
by nedsaid
Sat Mar 09, 2024 9:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: William Bernstein On the Financial Industry
Replies: 81
Views: 9778

Re: William Bernstein On the Financial Industry

I don't think it is prejudice or bias when the largest financial players in the world -- JP Morgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Citigroup and Goldman Sachs among others -- have paid literally hundreds of billions in fines and penalties for their crimes including securities fraud, consumer fraud, price fixing, money laundering, sanctions violations, bribery and forgery. Either the institutions themselves are corrupt or the industry tends to attract the most pathological of personalities, or both. Hundreds of billions in crime isn't just a few bad eggs. It's a way of life. What good are you doing to unsophisticated investors by promoting blanket stereotypes ? Many on this board insist that only FDIC insured accounts are "safe" (a...
by nedsaid
Sat Mar 09, 2024 5:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Do You Like My New 'Doo
Replies: 445
Views: 106020

Re: How Do You Like My New 'Doo

Just as I used a Morningstar worksheet to help create an Investment Policy Statement, I used one to create a Retirement Policy Statement. So here are the broad outlines of my plan: Anticipated Retirement Date: August 1, 2026. I would be age 67 at that time. Anticipated Retirement Duration: 25 years. This takes me out to age 92 which matches the MoneyGuide Pro assumptions. Retirement Strategy in Brief: Claim Social Security at FRA and take 3% withdrawal rate from portfolio. May annuitize a portion of the portfolio with 3% annual adjustments. Take a total return approach to investing harvesting both income and capital gains. Next is a listing of my retirement assets and dollar amounts which I won't list here. The worksheet then asks for my To...
by nedsaid
Sat Mar 09, 2024 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Do You Like My New 'Doo
Replies: 445
Views: 106020

Re: How Do You Like My New 'Doo

Yet another quarter is coming to a close and I continue to reflect upon where I am right now and where I want to go to from here. 1. The markets have rallied and my retirement portfolio value is back near all-time highs. Stocks have recovered fully from 2022 and bonds are still showing losses. 2. I have not rebalanced the portfolio and my asset allocation for my retirement accounts is now 65% stocks/35% bonds and cash and 58% stocks/42% bonds and cash across all accounts. I have decided to let my winners run though at some point I will rebalance the portfolio again. I pretty aggressively rebalanced from July 2013 through January 2019 from stocks to bonds whenever the US Stock Market hit new all-time highs. This no doubt was a hinderance to ...
by nedsaid
Sat Mar 09, 2024 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: William Bernstein On the Financial Industry
Replies: 81
Views: 9778

Re: William Bernstein On the Financial Industry

Condemnation of the Financial Industry is just another form of prejudice or bias. There are good guys and bad guys in most industries. Just because one restaurant is closed by the board of health does not mean all restaurants are unsanitary. I don't think it is prejudice or bias when the largest financial players in the world -- JP Morgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Citigroup and Goldman Sachs among others -- have paid literally hundreds of billions in fines and penalties for their crimes including securities fraud, consumer fraud, price fixing, money laundering, sanctions violations, bribery and forgery. Either the institutions themselves are corrupt or the industry tends to attract the most pathological of personalities, or both. Hund...
by nedsaid
Sat Mar 09, 2024 1:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity advice
Replies: 67
Views: 8019

Re: Fidelity advice

The semi-liquid or illiquid investments sold to higher net-worth investors fit in the category of not necessary. Such investments would include non-traded REITs, Business Development Corporations, Private Equity, Interval Funds, Limited Partnerships. These can be good investments, some of them aren't but for the great majority of investors, there is no reason to tie up your money. There are liquid investments available to the public that are lower cost and probably better. There is extra paperwork when you invest and lots of hassle if you need your money back, these aren't so easy to get out of. In addition, these type of investments need an Advisor to access and there are additional fees and expenses to owning them. It makes the ego feel g...
by nedsaid
Sat Mar 09, 2024 12:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should bond index funds still be part of our asset allocation?
Replies: 16
Views: 1477

Re: Should bond index funds still be part of our asset allocation?

Hi All, Is the Boglehead conventional wisdom still to have bond index funds as part of our asset allocation? Been seeing a lot of negativity lately regarding bond index funds and how volatility is not that much less than stock index funds. Just wanted to take others temperature on this. Thanks! Yes, bond index funds are still okay for Bogleheads to hold. There is a lot of negativity regarding bond indexes because 2022 was a bad year for the bond index and for bonds in general. Quite often, bonds are up when stocks experience a bear market but this didn't happen in 2022. Stocks were down about 20% and Total Bond Market Index was down 13%, this is why some are questioning the value of bonds as a diversifier to stocks. I would not, however, s...
by nedsaid
Sat Mar 09, 2024 8:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: McQ in the Wall Street Journal
Replies: 12
Views: 2025

Re: McQ in the Wall Street Journal

This is an excellent article. Yes, costs and portfolio turnover matter and investors who can minimize both will do better. It is good to see McQ receive recognition in the financial press, he is a newer star here on the forum. He should be invited to speak at the next Bogleheads conference.
by nedsaid
Tue Mar 05, 2024 8:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Customer Service Mega-thread
Replies: 1512
Views: 167385

Re: Vanguard Flagship calls

This is encouraging to hear, I like it when companies solve customer problems. Sounds to me like Vanguard is recovering from issues that cropped up from the Covid pandemic. It might be they are getting the message, Bogleheads are supposed to be sort of a Vanguard fan club and I have read post after post just trashing Vanguard's customer service. The thread regarding the upcoming retirement of the Vanguard CEO was interesting, in my imagination I could hear a lot of champagne corks popping and a lot of celebration. It was like the locker room just after a World Series win. Vanguard has taken a lot of criticism here, good to see good news and a happy customer for a change.
by nedsaid
Sun Mar 03, 2024 9:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Announces CEO Retirement and Appointment of President
Replies: 371
Views: 34676

Re: Vanguard Announces CEO Retirement and Appointment of President

I got a call from my Broker/Advisor and he advised that I sell Microsoft stock. I had owned the thing for something like seven years and it had been dead money. He was particularly disgusted with the Nokia acquisition, why would a software company get into cell phones? I am certain he had read the bad press on Steve Balmer but I politely told him no, I was keeping the stock. Wasn't long after that phone call that Steve Balmer stepped down, a new CEO was put in place and the stock started to respond. It turned out to be a fantastic investment after that. Don't know the inside baseball of Microsoft under Balmer, I know that the stock languished and languished, in fact it was a part of my anti-index of disappointments that I purchased at &quo...
by nedsaid
Sun Mar 03, 2024 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Announces CEO Retirement and Appointment of President
Replies: 371
Views: 34676

Re: Vanguard Announces CEO Retirement and Appointment of President

This thread reminds me of a Forbes article that said Steve Ballmer was the worst CEO in America. The financial performance of Microsoft was good under his tenure and the company grew, I don't think he was awful, it was just clear that he was out of step with the times. The stock price did languish under his tenure and shareholders, myself included where relieved when he retired. Microsoft needed a change in direction and the company prospered with its new CEO, Natya Nadella, was a breath of fresh air. I did feel that Ballmer was treated unfairly by the financial press. I don't think Tim Buckley was the worst thing ever, the company saw large asset growth under his tenure. Vanguard did a lot of things right and it was clear that Covid reall...
by nedsaid
Sun Mar 03, 2024 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Announces CEO Retirement and Appointment of President
Replies: 371
Views: 34676

Re: Vanguard Announces CEO Retirement and Appointment of President

This thread reminds me of a Forbes article that said Steve Ballmer was the worst CEO in America. The financial performance of Microsoft was good under his tenure and the company grew, I don't think he was awful, it was just clear that he was out of step with the times. The stock price did languish under his tenure and shareholders, myself included where relieved when he retired. Microsoft needed a change in direction and the company prospered with its new CEO, Natya Nadella, was a breath of fresh air. I did feel that Ballmer was treated unfairly by the financial press. I don't think Tim Buckley was the worst thing ever, the company saw large asset growth under his tenure. Vanguard did a lot of things right and it was clear that Covid really...
by nedsaid
Sun Mar 03, 2024 9:13 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: OK to pay down large chunk of mortgage?
Replies: 35
Views: 2742

Re: OK to pay down large chunk of mortgage?

Why prepay a mortgage with such a low interest rate? Inflation is running higher than the interest rate you are paying. On the other hand; why have a mortgage at all with a 750K income? If it were me, it would be gone by the end of the year! Because they can lend at a better rate than he can borrow, and thus make profit the way a bank does. If a bank borrows money at 5% on a CD, and lends an equal amount at 7% on a mortgage (technically, banks can't lend 100% of deposits), it makes a profit. The OP can hold municipal bonds with a much higher after-tax yield than the mortgage, for a similar profit. The other thing to consider is that getting money back out of the house through a HELOC (Home Equity Line of Credit), a refinance, or a second m...
by nedsaid
Sun Mar 03, 2024 9:10 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: To buy BND or not now ??
Replies: 63
Views: 8507

Re: To buy BND or not now ??

Rajsx wrote: Sat Dec 16, 2023 4:16 pm Would you buy BND NOW in Tax deferred ?

We are mostly in CDs with 4 to 5% return with quite some still left in money market in SPAXX (4.99% yield).

We are retired, 67 DW is 62, AA is 70/30

Thanks
You could buy CDs through a broker and construct a CD ladder for your IRA and get returns above what you are getting through US Treasuries. You could build a 5 to 7 year CD ladder pretty darned easily and not be concerned with fluctuations in Bond prices. If you bought CDs on the secondary market, you could perhaps juice rates a bit higher.

BND would be a perfectly good investment, I own some of it myself and it is a good, cheap, and diversified bond investment. But what you have
right now looks pretty good to me.