Search found 8964 matches

by nedsaid
Tue Jan 16, 2018 8:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do people in the forum hold foreign bonds?
Replies: 42
Views: 2456

Re: Do people in the forum hold foreign bonds?

Do people in the forum hold foreign bonds? In a technical paper, Vanguard recommends to hold some for diversification. If yes, in which fund(s) and what percent of total bonds? I welcome your input. Yes, I hold foreign bonds in two funds. Neither are currency hedged. The two funds make up about 7% ...
by nedsaid
Mon Jan 15, 2018 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can the Schiller P/E ratio be used for tactical allocation?
Replies: 13
Views: 671

Re: Can the Schiller P/E ratio be used for tactical allocation?

Can the Schiller P/E ratio be used for long-term tactical asset reallocation for the equity portion of one's portfolio? For instance, are any of you increasing your emerging market exposure while the Schiller P/E is low, with expectations that in a decade or two, you might reduce your emerging mark...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 14, 2018 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Heading for a top?
Replies: 103
Views: 7665

Re: Heading for a top?

Well it’s definitely not 2000. That was a once in a lifetime bubble; really the 07-09 crisis was the second half of the 2000-02 tech crash, as the fed lowered interest rates to prop up stock markets and liquidity flowed into real estate and debt. Stocks are less expensive than they were in 2000 and...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 14, 2018 11:59 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Looking for a reasonably priced, safe international destination
Replies: 103
Views: 5570

Re: Looking for a reasonably priced, safe international destination

I live in the DC area (DCA, IAD, BWI). Have two young kids, 6 and 3. Have up to a week off. I only speak English. The trip will be first week of May. Wants: Safe for the family Not too expensive Outside the US I was thinking Iceland. Any other destinations that fit this bill? Thanks! What about Pol...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 14, 2018 11:52 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Individual stocks in an IRA?
Replies: 9
Views: 466

Re: Individual stocks in an IRA?

My recommendation for you would be to sell the stocks and go to your asset allocation plan using the low cost index funds. Vanguard has low cost active funds, many of which have done well too. As others have said, these are within an IRA so you don't have to worry about tax consequences. I have indi...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 14, 2018 11:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Heading for a top?
Replies: 103
Views: 7665

Re: Heading for a top?

In this interview Jack Bogle talked about what he did in the spring of 2000. "... stock market at that point being closer to 40x earnings than to 30..." Completely different situation, but very interesting to hear him tell what he personally did at that time. https://youtu.be/k6ra5POdsYg Thank you ...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 14, 2018 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Heading for a top?
Replies: 103
Views: 7665

Re: Heading for a top?

I know the stay the course mantra, but what interests me about this run is what does the speculation center around? Previous downturns highlighted speculation on the tech sector and other conditions. I'm not seeing wild speculation this time. A run up to tax reform, a pro-business political environ...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 14, 2018 1:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: The Value Effect And Macroeconomic Risk
Replies: 1
Views: 467

Re: Larry Swedroe: The Value Effect And Macroeconomic Risk

https://alphaarchitect.com/2018/01/09/the-value-effect-and-macroeconomic-risk/ Good article where Larry reviews literature showing that the value premium is related to several macroeconomic variables: industrial production, credit spreads, term spreads, unexpected inflation. Value stocks are substa...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 14, 2018 12:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Skating where the puck was; e.g., commodities. Factors next?
Replies: 35
Views: 2406

Re: Skating where the puck was; e.g., commodities. Factors next?

When I read about factors, and really investing ideas in general, I get an "Alice in Wonderland" feeling. Factors are real, but they can "disappear" especially when a lot of people are looking at them. Then they can "reappear" when everyone has gone on to other things and forgotten about them. Sinc...
by nedsaid
Sat Jan 13, 2018 6:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Energy sector time to turn around?
Replies: 43
Views: 3602

Re: Energy sector time to turn around?

My personal view, is that if the transition from fossil fuels happens, that it will be slow. I know coal is hated as an energy source but we have it in abundance here in the United States and it is a reliable energy source. Oil was a big improvement but oil never replaced coal. I did read a few art...
by nedsaid
Sat Jan 13, 2018 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Heading for a top?
Replies: 103
Views: 7665

Re: Heading for a top?

I know market timing is against Boglehead principles. However Warren Buffet and Jack Bogle agree on many points including the value of index funds. Warren Buffet has always said "Be fearful when others are greedy". I see a number of developments that I believe are cause for concern and I would like...
by nedsaid
Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pairing REITs With Long-Term Treasuries
Replies: 11
Views: 376

Re: Pairing REITs With Long-Term Treasuries

... My guess is that REITs are there to hedge inflation and Long-Term Treasuries to hedge deflation. REITs would probably react to higher rates of inflation better than stocks would, but it is hard to say. I am just not as enthusiastic about REITs as I used to be. The yield chasers have made REITs ...
by nedsaid
Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hitting The Sell Button
Replies: 216
Views: 22964

Re: Hitting The Sell Button

By the way, I did another round of mild rebalancing from stocks to bonds today. Mainly I am trying to keep my risks in check.
by nedsaid
Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pairing REITs With Long-Term Treasuries
Replies: 11
Views: 376

Re: Pairing REITs With Long-Term Treasuries

Any investment-grade bonds will diminish the risk and expected return of a REIT portfolio. What are you trying to achieve? PJW My guess is that REITs are there to hedge inflation and Long-Term Treasuries to hedge deflation. REITs would probably react to higher rates of inflation better than stocks ...
by nedsaid
Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shares Are Wildly Overpriced. But Bonds May Be Even Worse
Replies: 34
Views: 5252

Re: Shares Are Wildly Overpriced. But Bonds May Be Even Worse

The thing is, even though bonds might be overpriced they are still far less volatile than stocks. For me the concern isn't that bonds will drop 50% but that they won't keep up with inflation.
by nedsaid
Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If I have a million with Edward Jones, in 10 years, how much money has my FA made off me?
Replies: 48
Views: 6267

Re: If I have a million with Edward Jones, in 10 years, how much money has my FA made off me?

The costs could be yet higher if the adviser actively switches funds, each time reducing principal by the front load. So a case worse than just the AUM fee plus high ER funds is an adviser that on top of that switches you through funds. E.g. 3 switches with a front load of 5% in that time frame wou...
by nedsaid
Fri Jan 12, 2018 8:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Skating where the puck was; e.g., commodities. Factors next?
Replies: 35
Views: 2406

Re: Skating where the puck was; e.g., commodities. Factors next?

It is the old "late to the party" problem. Really popular strategies will tend to stop working at least temporarily. No investment strategy works all the time. Pretty much, pick a solid investment approach and stick with it or you will keep switching at precisely the wrong time dooming yourself to u...
by nedsaid
Fri Jan 12, 2018 8:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Profiles Of Some Successful Investors
Replies: 26
Views: 3529

Re: Profiles Of Some Successful Investors

stemikger wrote:
Thu Jan 11, 2018 11:46 pm
The one thing I notice with all these frugal multi millionaires is they don't own bonds.
Probably a 100% stock portfolio would be a rational portfolio but the volatility would be too much, even for me.
by nedsaid
Fri Jan 12, 2018 8:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hitting The Sell Button
Replies: 216
Views: 22964

Re: Hitting The Sell Button

The thing is, I don't honestly know my risk tolerance right now. Age 58, spotty employment, getting closer to winning the game. New factors in my risk profile that I haven't experienced before. Thus you can hear the voice of caution in my more recent posts. I have never been a near retiree before. ...
by nedsaid
Thu Jan 11, 2018 9:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Looking for financial advisor
Replies: 4
Views: 449

Re: Looking for financial advisor

I am a recent retiree who is committed to learning how to manage his own financial portfolio. I have just finished William Bernstein's books, along with many of the books he recommends, and feel I understand the fundamentals. I am going to construct my own allocation plan and run predicted long-ter...
by nedsaid
Thu Jan 11, 2018 8:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is it time for me to "call in rich"?
Replies: 75
Views: 12037

Re: Is it time for me to "call in rich"?

If you are going to retire be sure and de-risk your portfolio first. Get a retiree's asset allocation first before quitting the job. Wouldn't it be awful if the market dived right after you retired? Then trying to live off a depleted portfolio. What I am trying to say is work the numbers first and t...
by nedsaid
Thu Jan 11, 2018 8:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Profiles Of Some Successful Investors
Replies: 26
Views: 3529

Re: Profiles Of Some Successful Investors

Snarlyjack, you are a throwback. That is you are interested in investment strategies that were popular with successful investors a generation ago. Buy and hold Blue Chip stocks and reinvest the dividends. That was in the day of 8 1/2 percent sales loads on stock mutual funds. You paid 3% commission ...
by nedsaid
Thu Jan 11, 2018 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hitting The Sell Button
Replies: 216
Views: 22964

Re: Hitting The Sell Button

When you are 35 you have relatively long time horizons coupled with relatively small portfolios compared to older investors like me at age 58. In theory, your pain from loss ought to be a lot less than mine since the dollar amounts of loss for you will be a lot smaller than for me. In fact, it does...
by nedsaid
Wed Jan 10, 2018 11:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hitting The Sell Button
Replies: 216
Views: 22964

Re: Hitting The Sell Button

If you are interested, you can read my IPS in my "How Do You Like My New 'Doo" thread. Pretty much, I took the Morningstar worksheet and answered the questions. It is a statement of investment philosophy. I talk about a relaxed rebalancing philosophy, rebalancing bands of up to 10%, and looking for...
by nedsaid
Wed Jan 10, 2018 11:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hitting The Sell Button
Replies: 216
Views: 22964

Re: Hitting The Sell Button

A nice problem to have but if I was 35 years old, I would simply be enjoying the ride. At 58, it seems to be like that laurel hedge growing out of control, a big chore to maintain. This is because I am concerned about controlling my risk as I get older. Ah to be young again! How are other older inv...
by nedsaid
Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:19 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Livesoft at 58,000 posts!
Replies: 36
Views: 2912

Re: Livesoft at 58,000 posts!

I have very much enjoyed reading Livesoft's posts. I remember the short hiatus he took and a thread started up wondering where he was. It was a lot of fun and Livesoft started posting again. My guess is that he took a potty break. Thanks again for helping to make this such a great forum.
by nedsaid
Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What your 2017 returns would look like if you listened to these financial websites
Replies: 18
Views: 3705

Re: What your 2017 returns would look like if you listened to these financial websites

My individual stocks were up 19.15% for 2017. I beat everyone but Barron's and the S&P 500 index itself. Still not bad. But I don't intend to write a newsletter. I would have beaten the index had I held on to all of my Applied Materials shares rather than selling 2/3 of them to diversify into other ...
by nedsaid
Tue Jan 09, 2018 10:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong
Replies: 87
Views: 6505

Re: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong

Valuations really do matter. I agree, but it's hard to stay the course: January 1993 CAPE had already reached high valuation (>20) Market kept growing... January 1997 CAPE had reached 28.33 Market kept growing... January 1998 CAPE had already skyrocketed to 32.86 (like today value) . Market kept gr...
by nedsaid
Tue Jan 09, 2018 10:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong
Replies: 87
Views: 6505

Re: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong

Valuations really don't matter. Money invested at the very top in March 2000 has returned about 6% a year over the past 18 years. You are a brave man. All that 6% return has come since about 2012. The US Stock Market was flat from March 2000 until sometime in 2012. You had to wait twelve years to g...
by nedsaid
Tue Jan 09, 2018 10:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hitting The Sell Button
Replies: 216
Views: 22964

Re: Hitting The Sell Button

My Investment Policy Statement is a strategic and not a tactical document. Markets and the economy change over time so it seems rather presumptuous to have tactical moves figured out 3, 5, and 10 years ahead of time. For example, each bear market has different causes and each bear market has a diff...
by nedsaid
Mon Jan 08, 2018 9:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: As a German: Should I go 100% US stocks?
Replies: 50
Views: 3266

Re: As a German: Should I go 100% US stocks?

This is why the Bank of Japan is struggling to create 2% inflation. No matter how much money they print, nobody believes they will, really, truly, keep on going until they have overshot the new inflation target. Instead people get scared, and actually save *more*. Public confidence is a big economi...
by nedsaid
Mon Jan 08, 2018 9:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hitting The Sell Button
Replies: 216
Views: 22964

Re: Hitting The Sell Button

I think that a lot of people here including myself practice mild forms of market timing. What I and others are doing is most likely a re-evaluation of our risk profile and asset allocation in response to advancing age and zooming markets. As asset classes achieve higher and higher valuations, futur...
by nedsaid
Mon Jan 08, 2018 8:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong
Replies: 87
Views: 6505

Re: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong

While I don't disagree with your three main points, what amazes me is the lengths people who "don't believe in market timing" will go to rationalize market timing. Unless you're using the CAPE to make changes to your portfolio (i.e. market timing) then it is useless, however informative it might be...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 07, 2018 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hitting The Sell Button
Replies: 216
Views: 22964

Re: Hitting The Sell Button

For a forum that "doesn't believe in market timing", there's an unreasonable amount of market timing going on in this thread. I think that a lot of people here including myself practice mild forms of market timing. What I and others are doing is most likely a re-evaluation of our risk profile and a...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 07, 2018 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong
Replies: 87
Views: 6505

Re: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong

First, if you haven't rebalanced your portfolio in a while, this might be a good time to do so. Excellent advice. I was surprised on the "it's time to quit playing" thread how many folks who were within 10-15 years of retirement who had allowed their stock percentage to grow above their former AA a...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 07, 2018 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Which advisor?
Replies: 5
Views: 317

Re: Which advisor?

Edward Jones has changed their model. They want their clients to pay a steep assets under management fee rather than just paying commissions. Edward Jones also loved the American Funds but have now ended their relationship. I have seen such portfolios mixed with individual stocks so that the advisor...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 07, 2018 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: An economist dismisses the idea of dollar cost averaging
Replies: 71
Views: 5280

Re: An economist dismisses the idea of dollar cost averaging

I think it was President Truman that said that if you took all the economists in the world and laid them end to end that it would be a very good idea. No wonder they call economics the dismal science. I just don't agree with the premise of the article or the analogy that the author uses. I think yo...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 07, 2018 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hitting The Sell Button
Replies: 216
Views: 22964

Re: Hitting The Sell Button

Sandtrap, everybody has a unique situation. What I am doing is stimulating people's thinking and not necessarily telling them exactly what to do. One reason I am nervous is that my income stream has been somewhat erratic over the last three years. After an October 2014 lay-off, I have lived off of s...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 07, 2018 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong
Replies: 87
Views: 6505

Re: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong

Might be different, might be the same, I don’t know so I’m just going to stay on the ride and keep buying. Buying high, buying low, always buying, but never selling :) Agreed! But the U.S. isn't the only game in town and other developed markets and emerging markets (as a whole) have a CAPE in the m...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 07, 2018 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: An economist dismisses the idea of dollar cost averaging
Replies: 71
Views: 5280

Re: An economist dismisses the idea of dollar cost averaging

First of all investing is not gambling. It is buying a share of the means of production in a capitalist economy and sharing in the fruits of capitalism. You are buying equity and debt of real economic entities in a real economy. It isn't putting money down on a spin of a roulette wheel. So his anal...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 07, 2018 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong
Replies: 87
Views: 6505

Re: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong

I believe that the CAPE is currently around 33.27; apart from that, what is there to "believe"? The US equity market is going to be disappointing relative to what ? How do you plan on using this information? If one were only to buy when CAPE is below the mean, the only buying window they'd have had...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 07, 2018 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: An economist dismisses the idea of dollar cost averaging
Replies: 71
Views: 5280

Re: An economist dismisses the idea of dollar cost averaging

First of all investing is not gambling. It is buying a share of the means of production in a capitalist economy and sharing in the fruits of capitalism. You are buying equity and debt of real economic entities in a real economy. It isn't putting money down on a spin of a roulette wheel. So his analo...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 07, 2018 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does the S&P 500 Grow Faster Than the Economy?
Replies: 31
Views: 2904

Re: Does the S&P 500 Grow Faster Than the Economy?

In short, it's not the paying of dividends by companies that matters, it's the reinvesting of any dividends paid by investors. Well, I have historically reinvested my dividends from stocks and stock funds back into the stock market. The exception is that in recent years I have been taking dividends...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 07, 2018 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hitting The Sell Button
Replies: 216
Views: 22964

Re: Hitting The Sell Button

I'm 41 and 90/10. Unfortunately, I have not been sleeping well at night lately as I've been seeing and hearing signs of stock market euphoria all around me. Everyone at work is crazy about Bitcoin. Friends and family who haven't been investing much in the stock market for the last ten years are ask...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 07, 2018 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: As a German: Should I go 100% US stocks?
Replies: 50
Views: 3266

Re: As a German: Should I go 100% US stocks?

Political risk you cannot hedge out. Politics discussions are forbidden on this board (for good reason) but we can imagine scenarios where the UK, USA, Canada, Japan default. But these are nightmare scenarios and you really cannot focus on them. A global investment grade bond fund will spread your ...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 07, 2018 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does the S&P 500 Grow Faster Than the Economy?
Replies: 31
Views: 2904

Re: Does the S&P 500 Grow Faster Than the Economy?

3) Nearly the entire difference between market's long-term historical price growth (1.9%, in yellow) and its total return growth (6.3%, in green) is due to the compounding effect of reinvested dividends! 6.3% is not the market's growth rate. The market cannot reinvest dividends. The market already ...
by nedsaid
Sat Jan 06, 2018 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: As a German: Should I go 100% US stocks?
Replies: 50
Views: 3266

Re: As a German: Should I go 100% US stocks?

Being German, I wonder what to make out of different advices concerning passive investing stock allocation. Consensus in German forums etc. advise to invest according to GNP, something along the lines of 30 percent US, 30 percent Europe, 40 percent emerging markets. However, most US investors (Bogl...
by nedsaid
Sat Jan 06, 2018 8:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: As a German: Should I go 100% US stocks?
Replies: 50
Views: 3266

Re: As a German: Should I go 100% US stocks?

Being German, I wonder what to make out of different advices concerning passive investing stock allocation. Consensus in German forums etc. advise to invest according to GNP, something along the lines of 30 percent US, 30 percent Europe, 40 percent emerging markets. However, most US investors (Bogl...
by nedsaid
Sat Jan 06, 2018 1:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Robo-Investors driving the market to insane levels?
Replies: 36
Views: 5147

Re: Are Robo-Investors driving the market to insane levels?

The pace at which the indices are rising without a real logical reason behind this kind of growth makes me wonder if the robots that place trades these days are responsible for this kind of skewed performance? No matter how much I try, I just can't seem to understand the euphoria in the stock marke...
by nedsaid
Fri Jan 05, 2018 10:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hitting The Sell Button
Replies: 216
Views: 22964

Re: Hitting The Sell Button

The mere existence of this thread and the relatively large number of comments in a short time suggest that an imminent drop in the market that many perceive to be possible (otherwise why would so many be "hitting the sell button") may not be so imminent. Markets climb a "wall of worry" and it looks...