Search found 10597 matches

by nedsaid
Thu Dec 13, 2018 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1539
Views: 216725

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

But don't worry Homer J, you are still correct that Cliff Asness is extremely wealthy. I know that is your favorite thing to point out. The horror! In America no less! :) "Where are the customer's yachts?" It was a good question 90 years ago, and is still a good question today. We're allowed to tel...
by nedsaid
Thu Dec 13, 2018 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recession Coming
Replies: 30
Views: 3264

Re: Recession Coming

Recessions are pretty inevitable and one can thing of them as a pruning process, putting out of business the weakest of firms that don't efficiently produce economic output. We used to talk about inventory recessions, in other words so much stuff would be produced that more was out there than what c...
by nedsaid
Thu Dec 13, 2018 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: MLP's
Replies: 12
Views: 640

Re: MLP's

Some of these are fairly good investments. Like other posters have said, there are the K-1 forms and the hassles when filing your taxes. Sometimes, the K-1 forms will be late, necessitating filing an extension. Furthermore, these tend to be more concentrated on the energy sector. When energy prices ...
by nedsaid
Thu Dec 13, 2018 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "How NOT To Beat The Market"
Replies: 13
Views: 1708

Re: "How NOT To Beat The Market"

Hi Nisiprius, You could also reduce the volatility of a Market portfolio by using something like Dividend Appreciation Index (VDAIX), for almost same sharp ratio. There is no need to pay 2.5% fees, just a tiny 0.07%. With that, we know what the fund is investing in and how simple the strategy is, i...
by nedsaid
Thu Dec 13, 2018 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NPR On Point: Stock Market Distress Signal: How Low-Cost Index Funds Are Taking Over
Replies: 13
Views: 1693

Re: NPR On Point: Stock Market Distress Signal: How Low-Cost Index Funds Are Taking Over

I guess the answer to this is Vanguard 1, Vanguard 2, Vanguard 3, Fidelity 1, Fidelity 2, Fidelity 3, Blackrock 1, Blackrock 2, and Blackrock 3. The Teddy Roosevelt solution. Vanguard already has both a "Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund" and a "Vanguard Total Bond Market II Index Fund" (which ...
by nedsaid
Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NPR On Point: Stock Market Distress Signal: How Low-Cost Index Funds Are Taking Over
Replies: 13
Views: 1693

Re: NPR On Point: Stock Market Distress Signal: How Low-Cost Index Funds Are Taking Over

I guess the answer to this is Vanguard 1, Vanguard 2, Vanguard 3, Fidelity 1, Fidelity 2, Fidelity 3, Blackrock 1, Blackrock 2, and Blackrock 3. The Teddy Roosevelt solution. Vanguard already has both a "Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund" and a "Vanguard Total Bond Market II Index Fund" (which ...
by nedsaid
Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 8550
Views: 1672743

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Well, the Mona Lisa still has a moustache on it. :wink:

I suppose the next spirited debate here are those who use the dash and those who don't. Free fall vs. free-fall. Sort of like the indexers vs. factor investors.
by nedsaid
Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NPR On Point: Stock Market Distress Signal: How Low-Cost Index Funds Are Taking Over
Replies: 13
Views: 1693

Re: NPR On Point: Stock Market Distress Signal: How Low-Cost Index Funds Are Taking Over

I guess the answer to this is Vanguard 1, Vanguard 2, Vanguard 3, Fidelity 1, Fidelity 2, Fidelity 3, Blackrock 1, Blackrock 2, and Blackrock 3. The Teddy Roosevelt solution.
by nedsaid
Wed Dec 12, 2018 7:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 8550
Views: 1672743

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

How do you spell "free fall"? That's what dictionaries are for. The American Heritage Dictionary, Merriam Webster's, and the Oxford English Dictionary all spell it with a space (with "freefall" as an alternative spelling in AHD). (If used as an adjective, though, it would have a hyphen.) Here's MW'...
by nedsaid
Wed Dec 12, 2018 1:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Great Personal Loss – Guidance and Financial Questions
Replies: 36
Views: 4842

Re: Great Personal Loss – Guidance and Financial Questions

northernboy, so sorry to hear about your loss. I cannot imagine how you must feel now, particularly when this happened rather suddenly and at a relatively young age. Certainly you are not alone as others have gone through this. Please accept my condolences. Best wishes, Ned. I'll be seeing you in al...
by nedsaid
Wed Dec 12, 2018 1:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "STAY THE COURSE" by John C. Bogle -- A Gem
Replies: 15
Views: 4070

Re: "STAY THE COURSE" by John C. Bogle -- A Gem

I guess in the light of Vanguard's website glitch, Vanguard has taken Jack's book title to heart. By golly, our investors are staying the course whether they like it or not!

https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2018/10/10 ... -for-some/
by nedsaid
Wed Dec 12, 2018 1:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 8550
Views: 1672743

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

You say freefall and I say free fall,
You say downdraft and I say down draft
Free fall, freefall, down draft, downdraft
Let's call the whole thing off.
by nedsaid
Wed Dec 12, 2018 12:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 8550
Views: 1672743

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

(free fall is actually two separate words by the way) Does that effect or affect the market? I confuse the two. It doesn't affect the market, but it effects my spell checker alarm bell. :D Here we go again - SP500 down 1.1%. Where are you people waiting for a discount... Oh no! How will I ever cope...
by nedsaid
Sun Dec 09, 2018 7:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The 10 Worst Places To Get Investing Advice"
Replies: 59
Views: 7111

Re: "The 10 Worst Places To Get Investing Advice"

What you find is that you have to learn how to separate the wheat from the chaff. Even otherwise good sources of investing advice can have some clunkers in there. A few examples. I learned an awful from Bob Brinker and his MoneyTalk program and was an avid listener from the mid-1980's until the earl...
by nedsaid
Sun Dec 09, 2018 7:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 8550
Views: 1672743

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

The fall in my portfolio value has been real. Not if you didn't sell. NEVER sell, never cry. I sold/bought to realize huge long term gains back in January; I thought the party would never end. Now I have to pay taxes on gains I no longer have. Since July of 2013, I have been rebalancing from stocks...
by nedsaid
Sun Dec 09, 2018 4:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 8550
Views: 1672743

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Interesting to see where Futures open tonight. In other news, some analyst from Morgan Stanley said that 'there is a lot of fake information baked into stock prices". I guess we should expect alternative stock prices being published by the 'venerable' house of the Morgan and Stanley. Question is: a...
by nedsaid
Sun Dec 09, 2018 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Has anyone adjusted their stock allocation on the dip?
Replies: 39
Views: 3267

Re: Has anyone adjusted their stock allocation on the dip?

Just wondering with the recent dip in stock prices if many investors her readjusted their stock allocation and sold some bonds or invested cash to do so. Thanks in advance for the response. No. The markets reallocated for me in 2018. My last rebalancing from stocks to bonds was done late in 2017, I...
by nedsaid
Sun Dec 09, 2018 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Allocation, timing, volatility
Replies: 7
Views: 686

Re: Allocation, timing, volatility

Hi all, thanks for the replies. Right, 10 years from retirement (we hope, maybe sooner?). We're at about 28% bonds, you can see why I wanted to reallocate. I stayed in equities for the growth, which worked, more or less. What I would do is just sit tight. You have enough time to ride out another ma...
by nedsaid
Fri Dec 07, 2018 7:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I’m getting frustrated FTIHX
Replies: 19
Views: 2321

Re: I’m getting frustrated FTIHX

I invested in FTIHX last year and it has done terrible. It’s almost down 12% since I purchased it. Is anyone else experiencing this pain? I’m in for the long haul because it’s in my ROTH IRA, but I’m regretting even investing anything in the fund! :annoyed Why did you invest in the fund in the firs...
by nedsaid
Fri Dec 07, 2018 7:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Allocation, timing, volatility
Replies: 7
Views: 686

Re: Allocation, timing, volatility

Hi all, I'm a noob here. I need to re-allocate our portfolio to increase our bond holdings. I was all set to do it and then, well, this last month happened. Now I'm frozen, unsure of how to work this. Just do it? Wait for a "good day"? I know, time in the market etc. Curious to read your thoughts S...
by nedsaid
Fri Dec 07, 2018 7:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ignored Risks of Factor Investing
Replies: 104
Views: 5134

Re: Ignored Risks of Factor Investing

Thinking back, I realized that I got interested in Small/Value tilting about the time this strategy was at its peak back in 2007 and 2008, before the financial crisis. Peak Small/Value as it were. Still, it was not a big variation on what I was doing before, just refining what I was already doing. ...
by nedsaid
Fri Dec 07, 2018 6:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 8550
Views: 1672743

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I did talk to my independent broker today, aka broker #4, and we discussed the very tumultuous markets. He said this had a very mechanical feel to it and that it was probably trading algorithms at work. Folks taking a profit and perhaps tax loss selling as well. Individual investors are not doing th...
by nedsaid
Fri Dec 07, 2018 6:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ignored Risks of Factor Investing
Replies: 104
Views: 5134

Re: Ignored Risks of Factor Investing

Thinking back, I realized that I got interested in Small/Value tilting about the time this strategy was at its peak back in 2007 and 2008, before the financial crisis. Peak Small/Value as it were. Still, it was not a big variation on what I was doing before, just refining what I was already doing. I...
by nedsaid
Fri Dec 07, 2018 6:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Unexpectedly subjected to my first Edward Jones sales-pitch...
Replies: 15
Views: 1625

Re: Unexpectedly subjected to my first Edward Jones sales-pitch...

Sadly, the VAST majority of what this "recruiter" was saying had almost nothing to do with actually becoming employed with Edward Jones. Instead, what he repeatedly hit on was a few key themes... 1. Understanding investments takes years and years of 60-hour study-weeks 2. The TSP is a horrible inve...
by nedsaid
Fri Dec 07, 2018 2:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: GE Washing Machine Screeching Sound
Replies: 19
Views: 1273

Re: GE Washing Machine Screeching Sound

The screech sounds like a really angry, large bird. When it spins, it doesn't screech, but the spinning sound is much, much louder than it used to be. It sounds like the washer is ready to launch into orbit. If it makes you feel any better there’s more than a few GE stockholders and analysts making...
by nedsaid
Fri Dec 07, 2018 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ignored Risks of Factor Investing
Replies: 104
Views: 5134

Re: Ignored Risks of Factor Investing

Again, I'll wait here while you point out even one time someone has written " "you aren't diversified if you don't use factors tilts". Nobody here is perfectly nuanced in their writing--I'm not; you're not; the OP is not. This a web forum as opposed to an academic journal. The argument that using o...
by nedsaid
Fri Dec 07, 2018 12:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Retirement Is Broken And Needs To Be Reinvented
Replies: 174
Views: 11962

Re: Why Retirement Is Broken And Needs To Be Reinvented

The article is mostly okay, but I strongly disagree that the problem is a shift from income to assets, (and I suspect Merton is plugging his financial services). After all you can convert between assets and income. The real problems with pensions in their current form, and the reason they should re...
by nedsaid
Fri Dec 07, 2018 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ignored Risks of Factor Investing
Replies: 104
Views: 5134

Re: Ignored Risks of Factor Investing

I am reminded of the Yogi Berra quote, "That restaurant is so crowded, nobody goes there anymore." The Small/Value restaurant looks like it is getting very crowded indeed as Small/Value is 2% of the US Total Stock Market according to Morningstar. If you add in Mid/Value, you get up to 8% and that lo...
by nedsaid
Thu Dec 06, 2018 10:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on Vanguard advice
Replies: 22
Views: 3213

Re: Thoughts on Vanguard advice

I used to think that everyone could do their own investing but I am continually surprised how uninterested and frankly clueless most people are about such things. I suppose none of us are expert in everything, I have had a passion for these topics but most people do not. Most people would benefit f...
by nedsaid
Thu Dec 06, 2018 9:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Moved on from a FA. Do I respond?
Replies: 17
Views: 1818

Re: Moved on from a FA. Do I respond?

I am curious what 401k options they had you in that netted 11% this year. Otherwise I don’t think it matters, maybe a short concise thanks but no thanks happy holidays note. It was a complex portfolio that churned stocks very frequently. No funds. I have 41 stocks currently in that account, some of...
by nedsaid
Thu Dec 06, 2018 9:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: All Weather Portfolio - Ray Dalio during slow growth/ downturn? How to balance bonds in low yield w/ rising rates?
Replies: 14
Views: 1394

Re: All Weather Portfolio - Ray Dalio during slow growth/ downturn? How to balance bonds in low yield w/ rising rates?

The problem is that in real life, the Ray Dalio All-Weather portfolio is dynamic. He makes adjustments to the asset allocation of his hedge fund. The Tony Robbins/Ray Dalio portfolio is static. It was something that Dalio came up with that he believed most small investors could implement. So the sta...
by nedsaid
Thu Dec 06, 2018 9:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on Vanguard advice
Replies: 22
Views: 3213

Re: Thoughts on Vanguard advice

There are economies of scale that advisory services have to have in order to stay in business. They work off of a model and have an investment philosophy. They can't afford to personalize and customize each customer portfolio. Hence the criticism over the cookie cutter advice. It sounds like your i...
by nedsaid
Thu Dec 06, 2018 5:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Retirement Is Broken And Needs To Be Reinvented
Replies: 174
Views: 11962

Re: Why Retirement Is Broken And Needs To Be Reinvented

The article is mostly okay, but I strongly disagree that the problem is a shift from income to assets, (and I suspect Merton is plugging his financial services). After all you can convert between assets and income. The real problems with pensions in their current form, and the reason they should re...
by nedsaid
Thu Dec 06, 2018 4:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 8550
Views: 1672743

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I am having fun with this, a Boglehead thread or one person's sell orders aren't causing this. Cliff Asness isn't even causing this. But it is fun to think about. Markets do what markets will do, sometimes markets do really weird things. There truly is madness in crowds. Or maybe algorithms. I wond...
by nedsaid
Thu Dec 06, 2018 3:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 8550
Views: 1672743

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Freefall is the BH water cooler, just keeping talking everyone off the ledge, stay the course, don't do anything about it..... I love this, you have it right! Got some smiles out of this. Those of us posting at 10am were too busy to put in sell orders at the bottom of the day :D Now, I got 10 minut...
by nedsaid
Thu Dec 06, 2018 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on Vanguard advice
Replies: 22
Views: 3213

Re: Thoughts on Vanguard advice

They told me that because I had a lot of specific questions that I should consider having them manage my portfolio. Needless to say, I was unimpressed. They also won’t advise on anything other than Vanguard funds, so anything like insurance they won’t tell you. I thought I was over insured for life...
by nedsaid
Thu Dec 06, 2018 3:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 8550
Views: 1672743

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

The markets are trying to rally today. Dow down modestly, the NAZZ up barely, and the S&P 500 still having a bad day. Dow down 200 or so is still better than being down 600. Where this stops nobody knows. Markets will do what markets will do. Hopefully I don' jinx the rally here.
by nedsaid
Thu Dec 06, 2018 3:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 8550
Views: 1672743

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

retiringwhen wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:37 am

Freefall is the BH water cooler, just keeping talking everyone off the ledge, stay the course, don't do anything about it.....
I love this, you have it right! Got some smiles out of this.
by nedsaid
Thu Dec 06, 2018 12:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 8550
Views: 1672743

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

As of right now, S&P 500 futures down 32 or 1.18%. Nasdaq futures down 105 or 1.54%. Dow futures down 321 or 1.28%. Pretty gloomy but we have to wait for Asian markets to stop reacting, Asian markets are down.
by nedsaid
Wed Dec 05, 2018 9:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How does an annuity with return of premium work?
Replies: 11
Views: 689

Re: How does an annuity with return of premium work?

Probably what I would do is buy a period certain of 10 years. That seems to be cheaper than the return of premium because you are in effect buying term insurance for 10 years rather than about 18. What I care about is that I have guaranteed income for the rest of my life, a secondary consideration i...
by nedsaid
Wed Dec 05, 2018 9:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How does an annuity with return of premium work?
Replies: 11
Views: 689

Re: How does an annuity with return of premium work?

A 65 year old man investing $100,000 in an annuity could get a life only payment of $554 a month or a life with premium refund of $514. If he dies in month one in the first scenario his heirs get nothing, in scenario two they get $99,486. The lower payment is in essence the cost of another layer of...
by nedsaid
Wed Dec 05, 2018 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 8550
Views: 1672743

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Real estate values are more volatile than we think, we just don't see it because our homes and commercial properties don't trade on an exchange. If we saw a ticker symbol for our house roll across the screen on CNBC, we would be pretty surprised. If your neighbor neglects his yardwork for a while, ...
by nedsaid
Wed Dec 05, 2018 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question: When Bubbles Burst, Do Asset Prices Go Below Instrinsic Value?
Replies: 14
Views: 1464

Re: Question: When Bubbles Burst, Do Asset Prices Go Below Instrinsic Value?

I thought that I read somewhere of a study (GMO?), that found when a bubble bursts, asset prices overcompensate and go below their intrinsic value. I can't find it, so I thought that I would index the collective wisdom of the forum regarding this. Answer is probably. Intrinsic value is in the eye o...
by nedsaid
Wed Dec 05, 2018 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 8550
Views: 1672743

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Real estate values are more volatile than we think, we just don't see it because our homes and commercial properties don't trade on an exchange. If we saw a ticker symbol for our house roll across the screen on CNBC, we would be pretty surprised. If your neighbor neglects his yardwork for a while, ...
by nedsaid
Wed Dec 05, 2018 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 8550
Views: 1672743

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Days with 2% or greater drops ... 2018: 11 (so far) What index or (better) ticker symbol? And how many days in 2018 of gains of 2% or greater? SPX 2018 - days of 2% or greater drops: 11 2018 - days of 2% or greater gains: 4 2018 - days of 1% or greater drops: 25 2018 - days of 1% or greater gains: ...
by nedsaid
Wed Dec 05, 2018 12:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 8550
Views: 1672743

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Condos in my preferred real estate market went down 1.6% in one YEAR (Nov '17 - Nov. 18), single family went up 4%. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 went down 4% in one DAY. Got to love the non-volatile, glacial asset class that is property. A vacancy still fills in less than a week for me. People will need ...
by nedsaid
Wed Dec 05, 2018 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 8550
Views: 1672743

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

The volatility in the markets is getting utterly ridiculous. Averages down 3% over a tweet? Another example of the skittishness of professional investors who ought to know better. Unbelievable. What stupid stuff out there are the hedge funds doing? No big changes today :) . Yep, it really helps whe...
by nedsaid
Wed Dec 05, 2018 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High book to price companies (low price to book companies) are risky?
Replies: 10
Views: 754

Re: High book to price companies (low price to book companies) are risky?

The reliability of P/B as a predictor of future returns has been reduced in the information economy. Highly profitable firms, or in the case of Amazon, even the promise of high profits in the future, may have relatively little in the way of measurable concrete assets like bricks and mortar. What th...
by nedsaid
Wed Dec 05, 2018 2:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High book to price companies (low price to book companies) are risky?
Replies: 10
Views: 754

Re: High book to price companies (low price to book companies) are risky?

The reliability of P/B as a predictor of future returns has been reduced in the information economy. Highly profitable firms, or in the case of Amazon, even the promise of high profits in the future, may have relatively little in the way of measurable concrete assets like bricks and mortar. What th...
by nedsaid
Wed Dec 05, 2018 2:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Be Prepared For Losses
Replies: 146
Views: 18993

Re: Larry Swedroe: Be Prepared For Losses

Thought a day where the S&P 500 lost 3.24% would be a good day to give this thread a bump! Dave I don't know who to blame. The guy who started that "soar" thread or Dave starting this one. Or Larry for writing that article. Today it seems to be a tweet. Maybe Cliff Asness in some way punishing us f...