Search found 8694 matches

by nedsaid
Fri Nov 24, 2017 9:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?
Replies: 88
Views: 4199

Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

I am just tired (maybe even exhausted by) of the stock market going up. [...] Just worn out from telling myself to stand there and do nothing. So no, I don't think you are crazy. You are thinking as an investor should. I disagree 100%. This behaviour is completely crazy and not something an investo...
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 24, 2017 8:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stay the course or?
Replies: 8
Views: 808

Re: Stay the course or?

Investor regret is a powerful force. If you want to increase your investment in the stock market with cash you have laying around, average that excess cash into the stock market over the next 6 months to two years. We are at all time highs in the US Stock Market and I am leery about throwing wads o...
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 24, 2017 4:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Variable Annuity - Time to Surrender ?
Replies: 49
Views: 2312

Re: Variable Annuity - Time to Surrender ?

^ sorta worked. I was expecting a major correction in the Markets, making the Put in the GLWB valuable. Instead the Market has been stupendous and I only got 50-66% of this the run up because of the Put fee and guarantee fees. :annoyed still got another 12 months :twisted: Ymmv. Off to Freddy for a...
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 24, 2017 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Value Index Mutual Fund Question
Replies: 5
Views: 434

Re: Vanguard Value Index Mutual Fund Question

Buyer beware tilting towards value, as value is very subjective, what is a 'value' company? The definition of the growth and value factors does vary among index providers and research firms. For example, using Morningstar's style definitions , Vanguard's Total Stock Market Fund (VTMSX) will always ...
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 24, 2017 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stay the course or?
Replies: 8
Views: 808

Re: Stay the course or?

Investor regret is a powerful force. If you want to increase your investment in the stock market with cash you have laying around, average that excess cash into the stock market over the next 6 months to two years. We are at all time highs in the US Stock Market and I am leery about throwing wads of...
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 24, 2017 2:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Deferred Compensation and Life Annuity
Replies: 3
Views: 243

Re: Deferred Compensation and Life Annuity

Is this money that you contribute? Is this money that the employer contributes? If the employer is willing to put $35,000 a year into a deferred account for you, it seems that your options upon leaving the company is a secondary consideration. If in fact they are doing this, this would be a big ince...
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 24, 2017 2:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The Wolf of Wall Street
Replies: 20
Views: 2707

Re: The Wolf of Wall Street

Movies are for entertainment. Do you seriously think a movie about Bogle would pack the theaters? Index funds are boring..... There are aspects of Bogle's life that would be interesting. His lifelong battle with heart disease and having to carry a defibrillator with him. Being shocked back to life ...
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 24, 2017 1:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?
Replies: 88
Views: 4199

Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

My take is that many of us have a Puritanical streak. When things go well, or seemingly too well, we feel guilty. As for myself, I don't feel guilty but I do feel a bit nervous. But then again, these strong bull markets are the whole reason that we invest in the first place.
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 24, 2017 1:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Variable Annuity - Time to Surrender ?
Replies: 49
Views: 2312

Re: Variable Annuity - Time to Surrender ?

Nedsaid. You are correct. In 2008, I was positively scared. Today, I am less scared because of what we have in retirement income. Sidenote: 2 optimum times to buy GLWB annuities. Market low. Or at Market High. :wink: It seems like your biggest problem is potentially being in the 25% tax bracket. Th...
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 24, 2017 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?
Replies: 88
Views: 4199

Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

I may be the only person in the world that feels this way but I need to express this emotion. I am just tired (maybe even exhausted by) of the stock market going up. The constant flow of gains makes me feel like I need to do something (change my AA, take some off the table, increase my equities, re...
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 24, 2017 1:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A checkup on the S&P 500 index
Replies: 6
Views: 820

Re: A checkup on the S&P 500 index

Well, the business world is very competitive and this might explain why profit margins aren't to your liking. The S&P 500 companies face world-wide competition and thus face fierce price competition. This would put pressure on margins. What I have been reading is that in recent years, profit margins...
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 24, 2017 1:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Bonds
Replies: 19
Views: 1018

Re: International Bonds

One aspect that surprised me and really shows we live in a global world was when I read the annual report for Total Bond was the international companies who issue bonds in the U.S. Likewise the Total International Bond fund contains U.S. companies who issue bonds overseas. These funds are not in is...
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 24, 2017 1:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle's Future Growth Projection
Replies: 11
Views: 1026

Re: Jack Bogle's Future Growth Projection

ebrasmus21 wrote:
Wed Nov 22, 2017 12:08 pm
That's going to really suck if Jack ends up being right.
This is why many of us are increasing our allocations to International stocks. Future expected returns there are higher, particularly for emerging markets.
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 24, 2017 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Bonds
Replies: 19
Views: 1018

Re: International Bonds

One aspect that surprised me and really shows we live in a global world was when I read the annual report for Total Bond was the international companies who issue bonds in the U.S. Likewise the Total International Bond fund contains U.S. companies who issue bonds overseas. These funds are not in is...
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 24, 2017 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Variable Annuity - Time to Surrender ?
Replies: 49
Views: 2312

Re: Variable Annuity - Time to Surrender ?

^ very good, nedsaid. At the time, 2008, as the financial world was collapsing around all of us, these annuities were, to us, unbelievably generous. Which was why I did extensive due diligence and now able to go into great explanatory detail for our GLWB annuities and experience. We are in the fina...
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 24, 2017 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Variable Annuity - Time to Surrender ?
Replies: 49
Views: 2312

Re: Variable Annuity - Time to Surrender ?

... IMO, it should be illegal to sell someone a high-cost tax-deferred annuity inside an already tax-deferred product. Is it worse in an IRA than in a taxable account? In a taxable account, you get the benefit of tax deferral at the cost of converting your qualified dividends and capital gains to o...
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 24, 2017 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Managing Risk With Factors
Replies: 92
Views: 5754

Re: Larry Swedroe: Managing Risk With Factors

To be clear I have not left value investing. I still believe and a vast majority of my portfolio (90%+) is in invested in value stocks. However, the value factor is not value investing & conflating the two leads all types of confusion. Value investing can work due to a small number of misprcings. H...
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 24, 2017 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity Portfolio Advisory service?
Replies: 22
Views: 1299

Re: Fidelity Portfolio Advisory service?

ljr, it would be helpful if you would tell us more about your annuity. Is this held within an IRA or did you buy it with after-tax funds? Please give us the name of the issuing company and the name of the annuity. For example, (I am making up the name) New York Life Variable Retirement Accumulator Z...
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 24, 2017 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity Portfolio Advisory service?
Replies: 22
Views: 1299

Re: Fidelity Portfolio Advisory service?

Thanks I will read and watch the suggested material. It's hard to figure out where to look here--there is so much information. Nedsaid: Remember the big picture, look at your investments as a whole. Yes, there is a lot of information. Retiredjg is one of our best contributors, I have participated i...
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 24, 2017 12:41 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity Portfolio Advisory service?
Replies: 22
Views: 1299

Re: Fidelity Portfolio Advisory service?

Okay, here's what we have: $120,000 in an old 401k invested in Fidelity Freedom 2020 $170,00 in an IRA containing Fidelity International Index Premium, Artisan International Investor Class, Brown Advisory Small Cap Fundamental Value INVS, Fidelity Total Bond, Blackrock High Yield Bond Class A, Doub...
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 24, 2017 12:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Managing Risk With Factors
Replies: 92
Views: 5754

Re: Larry Swedroe: Managing Risk With Factors

I have the same understanding as Taylor. If the market efficiently prices all risk including the factor risks, then would not the market weight represent the markets best estimate of the optimal risk/reward ratio? If not, then why not? Nedsaid: Except that markets do exhibit periods of irrationalit...
by nedsaid
Thu Nov 23, 2017 7:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Job interviewing - "do you have any other interviews or leads?"
Replies: 15
Views: 1988

Re: Job interviewing - "do you have any other interviews or leads?"

The world has changed. I always have believed in being open and honest and in dealing in good faith with prospective employers. Having been through this process recently, I wonder if it is better to keep your own counsel and just act in your own best interest. In other words, maybe just look out for...
by nedsaid
Thu Nov 23, 2017 2:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Annuity or lump sum
Replies: 8
Views: 586

Re: Annuity or lump sum

Looking for some advice on what is smartest use of retirement funds. Wife works for health insurance company that has been around for a long time. When she retires at 58 she can choose an annuity that pays Approx $3,000/month with 1.5% yearly cost of living. Her lump sum payout is approximately $60...
by nedsaid
Thu Nov 23, 2017 2:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity Portfolio Advisory service?
Replies: 22
Views: 1299

Re: Fidelity Portfolio Advisory service?

My husband and I consolidated our investment accounts and IRAs at Fidelity a few years ago, meeting with an advisor there to plot out any changes, etc. Now my IRAs have grown enough that the advisor is pressing me to go into the managed Portfolio Advisory Service account. When I ask about higher fe...
by nedsaid
Thu Nov 23, 2017 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Recent Paper Swings And Misses
Replies: 17
Views: 1620

Re: Larry Swedroe: Recent Paper Swings And Misses

There is a continuum and Larry Swedroe will not admit that it exists. Well, how could there not be a continuum. Only Total Stock Market (or, for that matter, Total World Stock) can be considered totally passive. With S&P 500, you're already making a (very minor) active decision towards Large-Cap. T...
by nedsaid
Thu Nov 23, 2017 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Recent Paper Swings And Misses
Replies: 17
Views: 1620

Re: Larry Swedroe: Recent Paper Swings And Misses

Greg in Idaho wrote:
Thu Nov 23, 2017 11:42 am
So what I'm hearing is: People working in the investment industry publish work on investment strategies that just happens to support their own bottom line.

Shocking...(sarcasm aside--I do appreciate the above analyses/commentary)
I am shocked, shocked to find there is gambling going on in here.
by nedsaid
Thu Nov 23, 2017 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Managing Risk With Factors
Replies: 92
Views: 5754

Re: Larry Swedroe: Managing Risk With Factors

Nedsaid, Totally agree that investing is not physics. Human behavior really jacks finance up. But that is a large part of what makes investing so fascinating. That being said, it’s not all hopeless. People have looked at data, made hypotheses, and evaluated their hypotheses with out of sample data....
by nedsaid
Thu Nov 23, 2017 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Recent Paper Swings And Misses
Replies: 17
Views: 1620

Re: Larry Swedroe: Recent Paper Swings And Misses

Nisiprius, you have echoed what I have been saying for years. There is a continuum and Larry Swedroe will not admit that it exists. In his mind, there is passive investing and active investing. I would say that the more passive DFA approach is not quite 100% passive and has elements of active invest...
by nedsaid
Thu Nov 23, 2017 9:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Managing Risk With Factors
Replies: 92
Views: 5754

Re: Larry Swedroe: Managing Risk With Factors

My reaction to Larry's article is that there really is not a science of investing. I believe you can use certain scientific and statistical techniques to learn what works and what doesn't work. You also get keen insights as to why certain things work. While not a subjective "soft" science, the "scie...
by nedsaid
Thu Nov 23, 2017 9:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Recent Paper Swings And Misses
Replies: 17
Views: 1620

Re: Larry Swedroe: Recent Paper Swings And Misses

How can indexing cause a bubble? Indexing is pretty much buying and holding a group of stocks with very little trading. This is just as exciting as watching paint dry or tumbleweeds tumble. Trading index ETFs is another thing, this might cause a bubble in smaller segments of the market, that is ETFs...
by nedsaid
Sun Nov 19, 2017 5:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What we don't know
Replies: 42
Views: 2800

Re: What we don't know

We really don't know anything when it comes to investing,do we?Almost daily I see posts on Bogleheads that make me feel this way Which is better a CD ladder or bond fund,with interest rates this low? Which is better index funds or a low cost managed fund (Wellington,Wesley,Primecap...)? Am I saving...
by nedsaid
Sun Nov 19, 2017 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Side investment to go along with a 2050 Fund (VFIFX)
Replies: 4
Views: 270

Re: Side investment to go along with a 2050 Fund (VFIFX)

If you are maxing out your 401k plans each year, you have plenty of retirement investments. I think what I would do is retain the savings account and try to add to it. At some point, you might want to put a down payment on a house or replace a car or who knows what else.
by nedsaid
Sun Nov 19, 2017 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Personal Advisor Services/Portfolio Review
Replies: 45
Views: 3299

Re: Vanguard Personal Advisor Services/Portfolio Review

I have played around with Portfolio Visualizer trying to benchmark my own portfolio against a Taylor Larimore 3 fund portfolio. I checked the Vanguard 3 fund rebalanced yearly, monthly, and never. The greatest rebalancing bonus came with rebalancing annually, giving your winners at least a change to...
by nedsaid
Sun Nov 19, 2017 1:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar - AQR: The Vanguard of Alternative Investing?
Replies: 58
Views: 4758

Re: Morningstar - AQR: The Vanguard of Alternative Investing?

matjen wrote: What is interesting to me is that we haven't even entered an environment where these types of funds should really shine. When we do, if they perform as expected AQR will explode. If they falter and prove no/little better than beta then major trouble. 1+ I don't think there's any doubt...
by nedsaid
Sat Nov 18, 2017 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Personal Advisor Services/Portfolio Review
Replies: 45
Views: 3299

Re: Vanguard Personal Advisor Services/Portfolio Review

First time post, LONG time reader. Getting my finances in order before wife and I retire next year at 56 and are planning on using Vanguard Personal Advisor Service. (Retiring is a scary step and we personally feel more comfortable with an actual person and are OK with fee for now.) Anyways, after ...
by nedsaid
Sat Nov 18, 2017 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should we be using high equity retirement portfolios? - Some cFIREsim scenarios.
Replies: 50
Views: 4413

Re: Should we be using high equity retirement portfolios? - Some cFIREsim scenarios.

I don't know. From my experience and having known a lot of "old" people and becoming one myself, it just doesn't seem practical that people are going to maintain 100% and 90% stock allocations throughout retirement. It seems that most people I know get more risk averse as they get older.
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 17, 2017 8:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Goldman Sachs mulls the death of the value factor
Replies: 18
Views: 2055

Re: Goldman Sachs mulls the death of the value factor

I will say it again, there are always good reasons for excessive pessimism.
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 17, 2017 8:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Goldman Sachs mulls the death of the value factor
Replies: 18
Views: 2055

Re: Goldman Sachs mulls the death of the value factor

...When BusinessWeek comes out with a "Death of Value" cover, a huge rally in the Large Value stocks will be ahead. It took about 3-4 years after the infamous "Death of Equities" article for one of the greatest bull markets ever to ignite... The "Death of Equities" article is fine. It is constantly...
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 17, 2017 8:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 6192

Re: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?

So I am not telling people to run for the hills in terror. I am not telling people to sell their stocks. What I am saying is that additional caution at this point is warranted. I understand your points, I really do. I'm not saying you are wrong. The chances for a crash or future lower returns (for ...
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 17, 2017 3:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 6192

Re: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?

Yes, Homer there are more variables than P/E ratios. Market sentiment would be another factor to look at. There are also other Value metrics like Price/Book, Price/Sales, and Price/Cash Flow. P/E is the best known of the metrics and it is a good shorthand when thinking about the markets. Another var...
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 17, 2017 2:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where did you first learn about investing?
Replies: 98
Views: 4767

Re: Where did you first learn about investing?

Wall $treet Week with Louis Rukeyser.
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 17, 2017 2:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 6192

Re: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?

I just think it is foolish to say that valuations don't matter, they clearly do. None of this is exact, we can sustain high stock returns if P/E ratios keep expanding. But they won't keep expanding into infinity. At some point, there will be a reversion to the mean. At some point if this keeps us, ...
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 17, 2017 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An hour with David Swensen at Council of Foreign Relations
Replies: 16
Views: 1603

Re: An hour with David Swensen at Council of Foreign Relations

Except Swenson isn't marketing to us, he runs the Yale Endowment. He is not part of the Wall Street hype machine. That approach DRIVES the rhetoric of the machine, the belief in "fundamentals" and security analysis as a predictor of performance. The company I worked for currently trades at about $8...
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 17, 2017 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow
Replies: 192
Views: 13042

Re: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow

I've been re-reading Buffett's letters to shareholders, and as usual, he's made some observations that few others in the financial world have made. 1. He agrees that share repurchases are more tax-efficient to shareholders, given the current U.S. tax regime. 2. But he says that managers of corporat...
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 17, 2017 10:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An hour with David Swensen at Council of Foreign Relations
Replies: 16
Views: 1603

Re: An hour with David Swensen at Council of Foreign Relations

There is a transcript of the interview. Here is one of many great nuggets: "You know, I have never been a big fan of quantitative approaches to investment. And the fundamental reason is that I can’t understand what’s in the black box. And if I don’t know what’s in the black box, and there’s underpe...
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 17, 2017 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Goldman Sachs mulls the death of the value factor
Replies: 18
Views: 2055

Re: Goldman Sachs mulls the death of the value factor

Yes, we have discussed the difference between Buffett and the academics when it comes to Value. I think I will go with Buffett on this one, as he has his billions and the academics do not. We have to keep in mind that Charlie Munger taught Buffett about Quality so Buffett has modified the Benjamin G...
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 17, 2017 10:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 6192

Re: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?

Simply to note that the record of Wall Street analysts on catching turns in earnings is very poor (David Dreman did a pretty good demolition job on that). Thus, the forward PE is almost certainly wrong. Nedsaid: Yes, Wall Street analysts do tend to be overoptimistic. But earnings estimates are what...
by nedsaid
Thu Nov 16, 2017 8:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Goldman Sachs mulls the death of the value factor
Replies: 18
Views: 2055

Re: Goldman Sachs mulls the death of the value factor

An interesting article from from GS explaining the reasons why value has underperformed for a long spell: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-08/goldman-sachs-mulls-death-of-value-investing-after-losing-decade . GS believes a conjunction of macroeconomic factors and monetary policy are ...
by nedsaid
Thu Nov 16, 2017 8:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 6192

Re: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?

I just think it is foolish to say that valuations don't matter, they clearly do. None of this is exact, we can sustain high stock returns if P/E ratios keep expanding. But they won't keep expanding into infinity. At some point, there will be a reversion to the mean. At some point if this keeps us, ...