Search found 11494 matches

by nedsaid
Tue Jun 18, 2019 5:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What percentage of total portfolio in REIT's do you have? Why?
Replies: 92
Views: 3952

Re: What percentage of total portfolio in REIT's do you have? Why?

Just checked my Morningstar X-Ray and 10.38% of my stocks or 6.7% of my retirement portfolio are REITs.
by nedsaid
Tue Jun 18, 2019 5:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Has The Value Trade Become Overcrowded.
Replies: 63
Views: 4164

Re: Larry Swedroe: Has The Value Trade Become Overcrowded.

Nedsaid, What is your overall allocation if you don't mind sharing? I'm early in my investing career, young, high income. Started with the Boglehead books 4-5 years ago, recently into the factor/value/swedroe books. Currently tilted very heavily to small cap value in a 50/50 US/INT allocation. Rece...
by nedsaid
Tue Jun 18, 2019 1:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: With hindsight, what signs indicated you were about to lose your job?
Replies: 111
Views: 8821

Re: With hindsight, what signs indicated you were about to lose your job?

What I learned from this thread is that some companies have chaplains. mebbe temps. I read where even the priest in Paths of Glory was outsourced specifically for the downsizing. Never heard of that outside of religious organization employers or the military. Maybe such chaplains would give "last r...
by nedsaid
Tue Jun 18, 2019 12:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: With hindsight, what signs indicated you were about to lose your job?
Replies: 111
Views: 8821

Re: With hindsight, what signs indicated you were about to lose your job?

What I learned from this thread is that some companies have chaplains. mebbe temps. I read where even the priest in Paths of Glory was outsourced specifically for the downsizing. Never heard of that outside of religious organization employers or the military. Maybe such chaplains would give "last r...
by nedsaid
Tue Jun 18, 2019 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Has The Value Trade Become Overcrowded.
Replies: 63
Views: 4164

Re: Larry Swedroe: Has The Value Trade Become Overcrowded.

Okay, I tiptoed into a bit more Growth to Value rebalancing. Yesterday, I bought a bit of a Small-Cap Value ETF with available cash. Today, I am exchanging a small amount of Total Stock Market Index for US Large Value Index. Also exchanging a small part of a holding in a Mid-Cap Growth fund into a M...
by nedsaid
Tue Jun 18, 2019 10:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 951
Views: 94318

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Very interesting contrast today. On my homepage, there was a link to an article that was titled "Investors haven't this bearish since the 2008 financial crisis." I looked elsewhere on the home page and the Dow was up 402.67 points, the S&P 500 up 36.53, and the NASDAQ up 149.44. The timing could no...
by nedsaid
Tue Jun 18, 2019 10:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 951
Views: 94318

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Very interesting contrast today. On my homepage, there was a link to an article that was titled "Investors haven't this bearish since the 2008 financial crisis." I looked elsewhere on the home page and the Dow was up 402.67 points, the S&P 500 up 36.53, and the NASDAQ up 149.44. The timing could not...
by nedsaid
Mon Jun 17, 2019 9:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Has The Value Trade Become Overcrowded.
Replies: 63
Views: 4164

Re: Larry Swedroe: Has The Value Trade Become Overcrowded.

I doubt that I have enough street cred, even on the forum, to influence the buying of Value stocks. If you would give a definitive buy signal, we could test that out! :P :P Okay, now that I have given the famous "These dangerous stunts you are watching should be performed only by highly trained pro...
by nedsaid
Mon Jun 17, 2019 9:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Has The Value Trade Become Overcrowded.
Replies: 63
Views: 4164

Re: Larry Swedroe: Has The Value Trade Become Overcrowded.

I know that the market is not efficient all the time. Depends what it is meant by efficient. Does it mean that public information is quickly incorporated into market prices? Or does it mean that no one can make money betting against the market? Does efficiency mean that current market prices are ex...
by nedsaid
Mon Jun 17, 2019 5:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Has The Value Trade Become Overcrowded.
Replies: 63
Views: 4164

Re: Larry Swedroe: Has The Value Trade Become Overcrowded.

I know that the market is not efficient all the time. Depends what it is meant by efficient. Does it mean that public information is quickly incorporated into market prices? Or does it mean that no one can make money betting against the market? Does efficiency mean that current market prices are ex...
by nedsaid
Mon Jun 17, 2019 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Has The Value Trade Become Overcrowded.
Replies: 63
Views: 4164

Re: Larry Swedroe: Has The Value Trade Become Overcrowded.

I had a few hundred dollars in cash in my rollover IRA account so I just purchased 6 shares of IJS, the iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value Index ETF, adding to that position. Seeing that I, in jest, put a "buy" recommendation on US Large-Cap Value, US Mid-Cap Value, and US Small-Cap Value; I decided t...
by nedsaid
Mon Jun 17, 2019 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Has The Value Trade Become Overcrowded.
Replies: 63
Views: 4164

Re: Larry Swedroe: Has The Value Trade Become Overcrowded.

I had a few hundred dollars in cash in my rollover IRA account so I just purchased 6 shares of IJS, the iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value Index ETF, adding to that position. Seeing that I, in jest, put a "buy" recommendation on US Large-Cap Value, US Mid-Cap Value, and US Small-Cap Value; I decided t...
by nedsaid
Mon Jun 17, 2019 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Has The Value Trade Become Overcrowded.
Replies: 63
Views: 4164

Re: Larry Swedroe: Has The Value Trade Become Overcrowded.

I had a few hundred dollars in cash in my rollover IRA account so I just purchased 6 shares of IJS, the iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value Index ETF, adding to that position. Seeing that I, in jest, put a "buy" recommendation on US Large-Cap Value, US Mid-Cap Value, and US Small-Cap Value; I decided to...
by nedsaid
Mon Jun 17, 2019 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Has The Value Trade Become Overcrowded.
Replies: 63
Views: 4164

Re: Larry Swedroe: Has The Value Trade Become Overcrowded.

Yogi Berra would say something like value stocks are so unpopular everybody's buying them. Except that they are not. At least not yet. I doubt that I have enough street cred, even on the forum, to influence the buying of Value stocks. I agree. I doubt your words influence the market in any measurab...
by nedsaid
Mon Jun 17, 2019 12:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Has The Value Trade Become Overcrowded.
Replies: 63
Views: 4164

Re: Larry Swedroe: Has The Value Trade Become Overcrowded.

Hopefully, Cliff Asness didn't read my "buy" recommendation on US Large Value, US Mid Value, and US Small Value and put on a big short. Stock market history could be made as we speak.
by nedsaid
Mon Jun 17, 2019 12:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Has The Value Trade Become Overcrowded.
Replies: 63
Views: 4164

Re: Larry Swedroe: Has The Value Trade Become Overcrowded.

I doubt that I have enough street cred, even on the forum, to influence the buying of Value stocks. If you would give a definitive buy signal, we could test that out! :P :P Okay, now that I have given the famous "These dangerous stunts you are watching should be performed only by highly trained pro...
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 16, 2019 11:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Has The Value Trade Become Overcrowded.
Replies: 63
Views: 4164

Re: Larry Swedroe: Has The Value Trade Become Overcrowded.

Well, let's calculate some odds. This is my 11,542nd post. I have been on the forum about 6 1/2 years or 78 months. If I am right about anything around here only once every six months, that means I have been correct about something 13 times. So if I give a market timing signal, you have about a 13 i...
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 16, 2019 11:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the Best Diversifier for Equity Risk? [Morningstar article]
Replies: 33
Views: 2619

Re: "Whats-the-Best-Diversifier-or-equity-risk.

Taylor, Long Term Treasury bonds are the best diversifier against bear markets except for 1973-1974. That suggests to me that maybe a combination of long-term Treasuries and long-term TIPS would be an even better diversifier. Very good idea, TIPS don't have that long of a history, so not too much h...
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 16, 2019 11:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Has The Value Trade Become Overcrowded.
Replies: 63
Views: 4164

Re: Larry Swedroe: Has The Value Trade Become Overcrowded.

fortyofforty wrote:
Sun Jun 16, 2019 6:30 pm
Yogi Berra would say something like value stocks are so unpopular everybody's buying them.
Except that they are not. At least not yet. I doubt that I have enough street cred, even on the forum, to influence the buying of Value stocks.
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 16, 2019 11:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Has The Value Trade Become Overcrowded.
Replies: 63
Views: 4164

Re: Larry Swedroe: Has The Value Trade Become Overcrowded.

nedsaid, all I said is that there were similarities, did not say it was the same thing, and I showed the data. Nor did I make any market timing suggestions, and I have noted value stocks can get even cheaper. AND FWIW did not take it personally, nor do I need to calm down, just sad to see For STLUT...
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 16, 2019 10:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the Best Diversifier for Equity Risk? [Morningstar article]
Replies: 33
Views: 2619

Re: "Whats-the-Best-Diversifier-or-equity-risk.

Taylor, Long Term Treasury bonds are the best diversifier against bear markets except for 1973-1974. That suggests to me that maybe a combination of long-term Treasuries and long-term TIPS would be an even better diversifier. Very good idea, TIPS don't have that long of a history, so not too much h...
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 16, 2019 10:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: With hindsight, what signs indicated you were about to lose your job?
Replies: 111
Views: 8821

Re: With hindsight, what signs indicated you were about to lose your job?

When you have a meeting for your office suite and an HR representative and the Chaplain shows up. If the Chaplain showed up, I’d probably have a panic attack as my immediate thought would be that I must be about to die. It seemed like it was about a 3-4 year process before our group got laid off. I...
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 16, 2019 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is wrong with AQR?
Replies: 128
Views: 7170

Re: What is wrong with AQR?

...CAPM model simply doesn't do a good enough job of explaining return differences, only about 2/3, but 3 factor model explains above 90%... If the three-factor model explains 90%, then how important can the rest of them--momentum, quality, profitability, low-vol, investment--really be? Good questi...
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 16, 2019 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Has The Value Trade Become Overcrowded.
Replies: 63
Views: 4164

Re: Larry Swedroe: Has The Value Trade Become Overcrowded.

man this is getting absurd, parsing every word. Of course it's not 1999 EXACTLY--we don't have CAPE in 40s just 30 (:-)) And while not the internet craziness we had in 99 we still have companies trading at extremely high valuations with no profits even in sight for years, the kind of stocks that on...
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 16, 2019 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the Best Diversifier for Equity Risk? [Morningstar article]
Replies: 33
Views: 2619

Re: "Whats-the-Best-Diversifier-or-equity-risk.

Taylor, Long Term Treasury bonds are the best diversifier against bear markets except for 1973-1974. Don't do this myself as I want bonds for safety, don't buy bonds for high volality. :wink: I stick with the Investment Grade Intermediate Term bonds that you recommend so often here.
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 16, 2019 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Has The Value Trade Become Overcrowded.
Replies: 63
Views: 4164

Re: Larry Swedroe: Has The Value Trade Become Overcrowded.

This market is nothing like the era of Pets.com. Remember 1998 when growth outperformed value by something like 30%? Oh really, right in my article I show the FACTS The ratio of the P/B of U.S. small growth stocks to U.S. small value stocks had widened from 5.4 in 1993 to 5.9 at the end of 1999 – t...
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 16, 2019 11:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: With hindsight, what signs indicated you were about to lose your job?
Replies: 111
Views: 8821

Re: With hindsight, what signs indicated you were about to lose your job?

When you have a meeting for your office suite and an HR representative and the Chaplain shows up.
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 16, 2019 4:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Has The Value Trade Become Overcrowded.
Replies: 63
Views: 4164

Re: Larry Swedroe: Has The Value Trade Become Overcrowded.

There are a lot of similarities to 1999 but it is a case of history rhyming and not repeating. P/E ratios are lower now than back then, interest rates are a lot lower, and we are not seeing any signs of euphoria. Indeed, interest rates have been falling again as the bond market is signaling an econo...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 15, 2019 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is wrong with AQR?
Replies: 128
Views: 7170

Re: What is wrong with AQR?

Want to make it clear that I am not engaging in Homer bashing here. Indeed, I have stuck up for him on at least a couple of occasions. I have read many of his posts and it seems to me that the approach he has taken with his own portfolio is reasonable. He has a bias towards conservatism with his inv...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 15, 2019 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is wrong with AQR?
Replies: 128
Views: 7170

Re: What is wrong with AQR?

Part of this is knowing who and what to trust. I trust John Bogle, Bill Bernstein, Larry Swedroe as being intellectually honest. Each have their opinions which doubtlessly affect the conclusions they draw from financial data but I know what they say is heartfelt. In other words they say what they r...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 15, 2019 3:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is wrong with AQR?
Replies: 128
Views: 7170

Re: What is wrong with AQR?

HomerJ, skepticism is a good thing but taken to an extreme is non-productive. For example, one could doubt their own existence. We don't know the odds for the future. We can however look to the past for clues about what might happen in the future. Sort of a history doesn't repeat just rhymes type o...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 15, 2019 2:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is wrong with AQR?
Replies: 128
Views: 7170

Re: What is wrong with AQR?

I sometimes feel like the uneducated dummy in these conversations. I have a PhD in pattern recognition and had a long, and relatively successful, career hunting for weak signals in noisy data. One of the things I learned along the way is that if you search hard enough for patterns in data, you will...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 15, 2019 2:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is wrong with AQR?
Replies: 128
Views: 7170

Re: What is wrong with AQR?

What we are doing is stacking the odds in our favor the best we can, no guarantees of course. See, my position is that we don't really know the odds. It's like watching 93 hands of blackjack, without knowing the rules of the game, and then deriving what we THINK the rules and the odds are from just...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 15, 2019 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factors: After being spotted in the wild, where have they gone?
Replies: 22
Views: 2218

Re: Factors: After being spotted in the wild, where have they gone?

Amazing that lots of things seem to have happened in 2008. My theory was that 2008 was the year of the Beijing Olympics and peak China. Didn't Spain, Greece, and Brazil go down after hosting Olympic games? Hmmmm........ Hosting the Olympics is a huge cost and invariably an economic disaster for the...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 15, 2019 1:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is wrong with AQR?
Replies: 128
Views: 7170

Re: What is wrong with AQR?

I sometimes feel like the uneducated dummy in these conversations. I have a PhD in pattern recognition and had a long, and relatively successful, career hunting for weak signals in noisy data. One of the things I learned along the way is that if you search hard enough for patterns in data, you will...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 15, 2019 12:33 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Arguments for getting more complex than three-fund portfolio? (portfolio review / first post)
Replies: 16
Views: 1330

Re: Arguments for getting more complex than three-fund portfolio? (portfolio review / first post)

I would add TIPS but probably not REITs. Its a long discussion and I have posted on these topics extensively. Pretty much TIPS haven't been doing as well as Total Bond Index because inflation doesn't seem to be a problem now. REITs have been doing well but seem pretty bid up in price. If you want in...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 15, 2019 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is wrong with AQR?
Replies: 128
Views: 7170

Re: What is wrong with AQR?

Hi Nedsaid, Larry is referring to the left and right side of the equations that define factors. For example: Value premium = High BtM-Low BtM Size Premium = small companies-large companies CS momentum = recent top performers-recent poorest performers This confused me too at first. Dave Thank you Da...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 15, 2019 12:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: CDARS - Can anyone share experience?
Replies: 7
Views: 1007

Re: CDARS - Can anyone share experience?

I have brought up CDARS several times on this forum with no response. Interesting that you started this thread. I don't have bank deposits in excess of $250,000 so this is something that I have not experienced myself. Have brought this up because very high net worth individuals might want to look in...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 15, 2019 12:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is wrong with AQR?
Replies: 128
Views: 7170

Re: What is wrong with AQR?

BTW, here's a thought. The argument goes that should should hold market portfolio because it's efficient. Well consider that we have two very different "market portfolios" depending on the type of investor. You have retail which overweights the right hand side of the factors (the short side) and in...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 15, 2019 1:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is wrong with AQR?
Replies: 128
Views: 7170

Re: What is wrong with AQR?

nedsaid, very much disagree with this statement but I have seen that you need shorting to isolate the factors from market beta to get a source of return that doesn't correlate to the US Stock Market And easy to show it's wrong. Here's example with start date the inception of the DFA SV fund in Apri...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 15, 2019 12:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Excellent Larry Swedroe Podcast Interview: Factors For The Long Run
Replies: 337
Views: 17288

Re: Excellent Larry Swedroe Podcast Interview: Factors For The Long Run

I remember those but just because you have money & are willing to pay high prices for things does not mean you have a structural advantage. If that was the case the ME would have an advantage in 1970s. If you look at the markets where you find more return than growth, then you typically have a more...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 15, 2019 12:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Excellent Larry Swedroe Podcast Interview: Factors For The Long Run
Replies: 337
Views: 17288

Re: Excellent Larry Swedroe Podcast Interview: Factors For The Long Run

And finally all the evidence in 1990 re structural advantages were in favor of Japan, but no one remember that. Reserve currency in dollars... come on. Not ALL structural advantages were in favor of Japan. Bogle may have been lucky, but this argument where he would have been 100% Japan if he was bo...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 15, 2019 12:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Excellent Larry Swedroe Podcast Interview: Factors For The Long Run
Replies: 337
Views: 17288

Re: Excellent Larry Swedroe Podcast Interview: Factors For The Long Run

Sorry Taylor, clearly LUCKY, you are making mistake of resulting. For a strategy to be right it should work EVERYWHERE you live--as I Noted Bogle would have been declared a fool if he had been unlucky and borne in Japan instead, though brilliant until 1990. Just lucky, not smart. Only fools judge t...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 15, 2019 12:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Bad was 2008, really?
Replies: 310
Views: 35100

Re: How Bad was 2008, really?

2008-2009 was really, really bad. The world financial system nearly melted down and we came closer than we knew at the time to a second Great Depression. It was very, very scary. I stayed the course because I realized that if I sold my stocks at the bottom that I would never be able to have the ret...
by nedsaid
Fri Jun 14, 2019 6:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Excellent Larry Swedroe Podcast Interview: Factors For The Long Run
Replies: 337
Views: 17288

Re: Excellent Larry Swedroe Podcast Interview: Factors For The Long Run

Sorry Taylor, clearly LUCKY, you are making mistake of resulting. For a strategy to be right it should work EVERYWHERE you live--as I Noted Bogle would have been declared a fool if he had been unlucky and borne in Japan instead, though brilliant until 1990. Just lucky, not smart. Only fools judge t...
by nedsaid
Fri Jun 14, 2019 6:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Bad was 2008, really?
Replies: 310
Views: 35100

Re: How Bad was 2008, really?

2008-2009 was really, really bad. The world financial system nearly melted down and we came closer than we knew at the time to a second Great Depression. It was very, very scary. I stayed the course because I realized that if I sold my stocks at the bottom that I would never be able to have the ret...
by nedsaid
Fri Jun 14, 2019 5:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Excellent Larry Swedroe Podcast Interview: Factors For The Long Run
Replies: 337
Views: 17288

Re: Excellent Larry Swedroe Podcast Interview: Factors For The Long Run

Sorry Taylor, clearly LUCKY, you are making mistake of resulting. For a strategy to be right it should work EVERYWHERE you live--as I Noted Bogle would have been declared a fool if he had been unlucky and borne in Japan instead, though brilliant until 1990. Just lucky, not smart. Only fools judge t...
by nedsaid
Fri Jun 14, 2019 5:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Bad was 2008, really?
Replies: 310
Views: 35100

Re: How Bad was 2008, really?

2008-2009 was really, really bad. The world financial system nearly melted down and we came closer than we knew at the time to a second Great Depression. It was very, very scary. I stayed the course because I realized that if I sold my stocks at the bottom that I would never be able to have the reti...
by nedsaid
Fri Jun 14, 2019 4:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks/Bond Allocation Based on Buffet Indicator?
Replies: 18
Views: 1585

Re: Stocks/Bond Allocation Based on Buffet Indicator?

I would say that the Buffett Indicator is useful, similar to my many comments about extremes in market valuation and sentiment. Buffett is onto something but I wouldn't look at any one indicator. I get the sense the market is expensive here but we don't see the extremes of market valuation or sentim...
by nedsaid
Fri Jun 14, 2019 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Do You Like My New 'Doo
Replies: 199
Views: 40165

Re: How Do You Like My New 'Doo

My retirement portfolio really has not changed, I did recently redeploy most of the cash in my Rollover IRA at Fidelity. A round of mild rebalancing from stocks several months ago had created this pool of cash. Most of it went into a very cheap Fidelity Short-Term Bond Index. The FDIC Insured Deposi...