Search found 11745 matches

by nedsaid
Wed Jul 17, 2019 10:33 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Take the cash or the free dinner?
Replies: 42
Views: 2879

Re: Take the cash or the free dinner?

There have been several threads about listening to a pitch at a free dinner, but I've been offered $200 in cash to listen to a pitch which is a first for me. I just don't recall sales pitches offering cash, but plenty offer a free vacation (time shares!) or free dinner (annuities). There have been ...
by nedsaid
Wed Jul 17, 2019 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why factor investing isn't working
Replies: 465
Views: 18887

Re: Why factor investing isn't working

Nedsaid, I tend to agree with what you say in theory, for me I would say that pairing Value with Quality and Momentum (aka multifactor) is an upgrade of skill from using Value alone. But there are 2 potential problems. The first one is that despite having improved skill, the market as a whole also ...
by nedsaid
Wed Jul 17, 2019 12:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why factor investing isn't working
Replies: 465
Views: 18887

Re: Why factor investing isn't working

Larry, Relatively new to this forum, I think my position is halfway between “ordinary” bogleheads and factorheads. Perhaps it’s the worst position in a discussion, because I would be disagreed by both sides. IMO value is a very complex factor. I agree that there are both some risk and behavioral ex...
by nedsaid
Wed Jul 17, 2019 12:25 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity zero-fee index fund questions
Replies: 16
Views: 2934

Re: Fidelity zero-fee index fund questions

Hey, there are 4 Zero Funds. You forgot the Zero Extended Market Index Fund.
by nedsaid
Tue Jul 16, 2019 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why factor investing isn't working
Replies: 465
Views: 18887

Re: Why factor investing isn't working

But in a market, nothing is independent of human behavior. In fact, people doing stupid things create lots of problems for the rest of us. It seems we are torturing the language here. Excellent point. You have been promoted from troll status to the smartest guy in the universe. As they say, flatter...
by nedsaid
Tue Jul 16, 2019 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why factor investing isn't working
Replies: 465
Views: 18887

Re: Why factor investing isn't working

nedsaid As far as the definition of risk, it seems we parse words too much here. If stocks get overbought and expensive, yes that is a behavioral cause but it seems like there is a pricing risk as a result. Agree, just pointing out that in the literature on the factors the term risk is always refer...
by nedsaid
Tue Jul 16, 2019 1:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Poor financial advisor performance
Replies: 71
Views: 3776

Re: Poor financial advisor performance

Wow. Thanks for all the replies. First, I’d like to say that the performance number (5.2%) is NET of all fees. Secondly, my portfolio DOES include foreign stock mutual funds (DFA) and they’ve been dogs. The 60/40 benchmark does not. It is 60% S&P 500 and 40% Barclays Aggregate Bond. The funds that ...
by nedsaid
Tue Jul 16, 2019 12:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why factor investing isn't working
Replies: 465
Views: 18887

Re: Why factor investing isn't working

nedsaid Larry the risk with Quality companies is that they get too loved. John this is purely a behavioral story, not a risk story. It's like the lottery stocks they become overvalued because of preferences for positive skew of investors, not due to lower risk. When discussing risk it is BUSINESS/E...
by nedsaid
Tue Jul 16, 2019 11:47 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: International Bond Fund - yes or no?
Replies: 11
Views: 877

Re: International Bond Fund - yes or no?

International Bonds are entirely optional. Their diversification benefits in my opinion are very mild. I do own International Bonds simply because they are the largest asset class in the world, and that is hard to ignore. The Vanguard International Bond Index is currency hedged to the US Dollar, so ...
by nedsaid
Tue Jul 16, 2019 11:29 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Passive investment help before I meet with Fidelity FA this week.
Replies: 19
Views: 1924

Re: Passive investment help before I meet with Fidelity FA this week.

I know this is a minority opinion here but remember to be a good customer too. Many folks here are for the very lowest costs no matter what. Keep in mind that the folks at Fidelity need to eat too and that the Zero products are loss leaders for them. I think of folks who shop at Wal-Mart and have li...
by nedsaid
Tue Jul 16, 2019 11:07 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Poor financial advisor performance
Replies: 71
Views: 3776

Re: Poor financial advisor performance

Wow. Thanks for all the replies. First, I’d like to say that the performance number (5.2%) is NET of all fees. Secondly, my portfolio DOES include foreign stock mutual funds (DFA) and they’ve been dogs. The 60/40 benchmark does not. It is 60% S&P 500 and 40% Barclays Aggregate Bond. The funds that ...
by nedsaid
Tue Jul 16, 2019 10:52 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Passive investment help before I meet with Fidelity FA this week.
Replies: 19
Views: 1924

Re: Passive investment help before I meet with Fidelity FA this week.

vipertom1970: Welcome to the Bogleheads Forum! Fidelity is a good for-profit company. You must be careful to keep your portfolio as inexpensive and simple as possible. Fidelity has excellent, zero fee, total market index funds (recommended by Jack Bogle). Be wary of expensive, complicated recommend...
by nedsaid
Tue Jul 16, 2019 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why factor investing isn't working
Replies: 465
Views: 18887

Re: Why factor investing isn't working

Viniez Really? Clearly more profitable companies are less risky than less ones. It's really hard to create a good risk story there (I should have added the word good in my first post). Only argument is more profitable companies attract more competition. And vice versa. But that is stretching it as ...
by nedsaid
Mon Jul 15, 2019 12:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 113
Views: 13011

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

I do want to defend Taylor here. Mr. Bogle was a man of immense accomplishment who also left us quite a legacy of books, speeches, interview and the output was voluminous. The man and his accomplishments should be honored and admired. Also I know that Taylor and Mr. Bogle were friends. It is a good ...
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 14, 2019 11:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small-Cap Value Funds: Then And Now
Replies: 74
Views: 7983

Re: Small-Cap Value Funds: Then And Now

I would never put 100% of my stocks in Small Value. My belief is that you can't ignore the Large Cap stocks. Not an advocate of extreme tilts. Yeah I don't think I could ever go there either. I actually only have 3/8 of my US stocks in large caps but I really can't wrap my head around not owning th...
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 14, 2019 11:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why factor investing isn't working
Replies: 465
Views: 18887

Re: Why factor investing isn't working

Larry has posted about gurus and forecasts. That is correct. Those are excellent articles, which is why I'm always confused when he makes forecasts himself. He didn't make a forecast but he was just sayin'. "just saying" is still a forecast. So I am gradually doing a program of Growth to Value reba...
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 14, 2019 9:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why factor investing isn't working
Replies: 465
Views: 18887

Re: Why factor investing isn't working

Larry has posted about gurus and forecasts.
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 14, 2019 9:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 113
Views: 13011

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Well, Jack Bogle does deserve investing Sainthood. He has more than 2 portfolio miracles attributed to him. :wink: So many people here who say that he changed their lives. The Fidelity Index funds that I invest in wouldn't exist were it not for Mr. Bogle.
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 14, 2019 8:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the Boglehead opinion of the inverted yield curve?
Replies: 70
Views: 6647

Re: What is the Boglehead opinion of the inverted yield curve?

Standard wisdom on Wall Street is that inverted yield curves signal an impending recession. In layman's terms, that means "run for the hills." :wink: Memory is foggy on this but I recall that inverted yield curves often though not always predict recession. My take is that the stock and bond markets ...
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 14, 2019 8:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 113
Views: 13011

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

It is fair to say that Bogle didn't believe in factors, he probably created the Growth and Value index funds to meet investor demand. He also envisioned that folks would use Growth while working and go to the Value Index while retired. The Value Index is more conservative and generates more income,...
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 14, 2019 8:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why factor investing isn't working
Replies: 465
Views: 18887

Re: Why factor investing isn't working

My gosh, you can't make rational decisions without some form of forecasting. Of course you can. Sure, yes, you need to expect POSITIVE real returns to invest in something, but beyond that, no you don't need to forecast any finer than that. You're an old guy like me... You've seen the world. You wat...
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 14, 2019 7:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why factor investing isn't working
Replies: 465
Views: 18887

Re: Why factor investing isn't working

I would agree that market and economic forecasts should be viewed with skepticism. They must have some value or no one would pay for them. Incorrect. People are dumb. I mean, really dumb. Look at me! But incomplete knowledge is sure a whole lot better than total ignorance. Nope... in investing, it'...
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 14, 2019 6:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why mutual funds are more dangerous than ETFs
Replies: 32
Views: 3420

Re: Why mutual funds are more dangerous than ETFs

I should start a thread entitled, "Why closed end-mutual funds are more dangerous than active open ended funds which are more dangerous than ETFs that are more dangerous than indexed open ended mutual funds." So much danger out there, I feel like the Cowardly Lion. Lions and Tigers and Bears! Oh my!
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 14, 2019 6:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 113
Views: 13011

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Jack Bogle was a great interview. He spoke his mind and said surprising things. Too many people today come armed with talking points, you hear the party line but not what interviewee really thought. So a lot of interview shows today is just the recitation of what you have heard before. Dull, dull, d...
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 14, 2019 6:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why factor investing isn't working
Replies: 465
Views: 18887

Re: Why factor investing isn't working

That's okay nedsaid. Surely you've heard Economics is the one discipline that makes Astrology look respectable. Snip... I suppose this had a big influence on me, one reason I talk a lot about market sentiment. Lots of folks here downplay the role of market psychology. One reason I think this trend ...
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 14, 2019 6:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why factor investing isn't working
Replies: 465
Views: 18887

Re: Why factor investing isn't working

Factors really aren't new but they represent refinements upon things that market professionals knew or suspected for years. We have known for a long time that different sectors of the market behaved differently from each other. Consumer staples performed differently than Technology, for example. We ...
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 14, 2019 5:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small-Cap Value Funds: Then And Now
Replies: 74
Views: 7983

Re: Small-Cap Value Funds: Then And Now

I would never put 100% of my stocks in Small Value. My belief is that you can't ignore the Large Cap stocks. Not an advocate of extreme tilts.
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 14, 2019 5:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 113
Views: 13011

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

If I had to guess, probably at least half of the Bogleheads are market cap weighted index investors, some of these might own legacy active funds. If I had to guess 25%-40% do the Taylor Larimore 3 fund portfolio. Probably 25% or less factor tilt. There is a smaller group of the tilters that use the ...
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 14, 2019 5:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 113
Views: 13011

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Mr. Bogle had a remarkable consistency over his career from the time that he authored his famous paper on the mutual fund industry while he was still at Princeton. Bogle was a believer in more conservative, low cost investing and he pioneered the retail index funds. There were, however, some detours...
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 14, 2019 4:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 113
Views: 13011

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

I want to make abundantly clear that I believe the three fund portfolio of Total Stock Market Index, Total International Stock Market Index, and Total Bond Market Index to be a very good portfolio. I have even said that the 3 fund portfolio has been outperforming the factor tilted portfolios for a d...
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 14, 2019 4:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 113
Views: 13011

Re: Mr. Bogle and factor funds.

Has Taylor Larimore found this thread yet? He seems to be on a holy mission against us Small/Value heretics. It's true. I am a soldier in Jack Bogle's crusade "To give ordinary investors a fair shake ." Mr. Bogle did not believe in factor funds like Small-Cap Value. Instead, he recommended investin...
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 14, 2019 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why factor investing isn't working
Replies: 465
Views: 18887

Re: Why factor investing isn't working

...[Economics] also has been called "the dismal science." The problem I have with economics is that some folks want to reduce it all to formulas, just like with markets, economies are behaviorally driven. The math is fine but you need to put the markets and the economy on the couch. Economics is on...
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 14, 2019 12:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: my mom is a "financial advisor"
Replies: 66
Views: 7145

Re: my mom is a "financial advisor"

I have seen certain American Funds available for no-load available at Fidelity Brokerage. Also their funds are often available through 401(k) plans and could be a good choice. If you want conservatively run, no-load, low expense ratio active funds, you can get very similar funds at Vanguard. Vangua...
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 14, 2019 12:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio review and financial advisor questions
Replies: 21
Views: 1540

Re: Portfolio review and financial advisor questions

I think you would benefit from an Advisory relationship. Hate to say it, Doctors don't have the best track record as investors. I think one reason is that they are very busy and sometimes turn to rather questionable advisors. Another reason is that Doctors are very bright people, in the area of inv...
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 14, 2019 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why factor investing isn't working
Replies: 465
Views: 18887

Re: Why factor investing isn't working

Interest rates have dropped over the past 30 years from a high of 15%. This cannot repeat starting from today's rates. It most certainly can repeat. I don’t know what makes people think it can’t continue to happen. Are you saying that you see a reasonable possibility of the 10 year treasury yieldin...
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 14, 2019 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 113
Views: 13011

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

For the record, I am in the beginning stages of the "Swedroe shuffle", named after Larry's decision to take his stocks to 100% Value in 1997 or 1998. My shift will be more modest, I will never be out of the Large Mega-Cap Growth stocks, just underweight them. Last month, having been goaded by fellow...
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 14, 2019 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 113
Views: 13011

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

I can data mine as well. YTD through yesterday of IJS, VUG, VTI, and MTUM: 12.01% IJS 21.73% VUG 17.85% VTI 18.78% MTUM Put that in your pipe and smoke it. Stay in your lane bro...this is a refuge thread for SCV tilters. Its a SCV bashing-free zone. Only place left for us. :beer Has Taylor Larimore...
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 14, 2019 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 113
Views: 13011

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

I think you are right. I’ve been holding VBR for the past 10 years. I finally capitulated, changed my IPS to not tilt to SCV, and sold it last Friday. Wow. If that isn't a buy signal for Small Value, I don't know what is. I checked Morningstar a month or two ago and looked at the performance record...
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 14, 2019 11:11 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio review and financial advisor questions
Replies: 21
Views: 1540

Re: Portfolio review and financial advisor questions

Adam685, my first response to reading your post is that you seem to be in good shape. Though I consider the 1.75% Assets Under Management fees to be too high, it appears you were well served by your advisors. Looking at your portfolio, it looks fine to me, though a bit complex by Boglehead standards...
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 14, 2019 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P MidCap 400: Outperformance and Potential Applications
Replies: 18
Views: 1830

Re: S&P MidCap 400: Outperformance and Potential Applications

S&P Dow Jones Indices published an interesting research article on S&P MidCap 400 outperformance. Link: https://us.spindices.com/documents/research/research-sp-midcap-400-outperformance-and-potential-applications.pdf EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Mid-cap stocks have often been overlooked in favor of other siz...
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 14, 2019 10:34 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard TD funds
Replies: 35
Views: 1954

Re: Vanguard TD funds

At a former workplace savings plan, I did have a Vanguard 2025 Target Fund for a brief time. I like these funds as they give you a world-wide diversified portfolio for very low fees. They are a good set it and forget it investment.
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 14, 2019 10:32 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: my mom is a "financial advisor"
Replies: 66
Views: 7145

Re: my mom is a "financial advisor"

I have seen certain American Funds available for no-load available at Fidelity Brokerage. Also their funds are often available through 401(k) plans and could be a good choice. If you want conservatively run, no-load, low expense ratio active funds, you can get very similar funds at Vanguard. Vanguar...
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 14, 2019 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why factor investing isn't working
Replies: 465
Views: 18887

Re: Why factor investing isn't working

I think the factor versus cap weight horse has been beaten to death in these 5 pages. Perhaps it's best to call a truce for a while and rest a while before the next round of combat. Garland Whizzer +1 Care to comment on "Nedsaid's" post (bottom page 8) on "Large Growth Trend" going forward? Thanks ...
by nedsaid
Sun Jul 14, 2019 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why factor investing isn't working
Replies: 465
Views: 18887

Re: Why factor investing isn't working

+1 Care to comment on "Nedsaid's" post (bottom page 8) on "Large Growth Trend" going forward? Thanks for your help. Aloha j :D Be careful, I am wrong about almost everything I say here! By the way, BobK aka Bobcat2 did economic forecasting for a living. Probably 18-20 months ago, we had quite the d...
by nedsaid
Sat Jul 13, 2019 9:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in Oil Companies
Replies: 15
Views: 1084

Re: Investing in Oil Companies

There is a new dynamic out there that wasn't there before. That is horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracking. This has opened up new oil from places where oil was previously thought to be unrecoverable. I have read that the frackers can make money on $40/barrel oil. What happens is that when oil p...
by nedsaid
Sat Jul 13, 2019 9:04 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in Oil Companies
Replies: 15
Views: 1084

Re: Investing in Oil Companies

There is a new dynamic out there that wasn't there before. That is horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracking. This has opened up new oil from places where oil was previously thought to be unrecoverable. I have read that the frackers can make money on $40/barrel oil. What happens is that when oil p...
by nedsaid
Sat Jul 13, 2019 8:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why factor investing isn't working
Replies: 465
Views: 18887

Re: Why factor investing isn't working

I think the factor versus cap weight horse has been beaten to death in these 5 pages. Perhaps it's best to call a truce for a while and rest a while before the next round of combat. Garland Whizzer +1 Care to comment on "Nedsaid's" post (bottom page 8) on "Large Growth Trend" going forward? Thanks ...
by nedsaid
Sat Jul 13, 2019 8:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in Oil Companies
Replies: 15
Views: 1084

Re: Investing in Oil Companies

There is a new dynamic out there that wasn't there before. That is horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracking. This has opened up new oil from places where oil was previously thought to be unrecoverable. I have read that the frackers can make money on $40/barrel oil. What happens is that when oil pr...
by nedsaid
Sat Jul 13, 2019 8:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why factor investing isn't working
Replies: 465
Views: 18887

Re: Why factor investing isn't working

I think the factor versus cap weight horse has been beaten to death in these 5 pages. Perhaps it's best to call a truce for a while and rest a while before the next round of combat. Garland Whizzer +1 Care to comment on "Nedsaid's" post (bottom page 8) on "Large Growth Trend" going forward? Thanks ...
by nedsaid
Sat Jul 13, 2019 8:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why factor investing isn't working
Replies: 465
Views: 18887

Re: Why factor investing isn't working

But, do you see the continuing dominance of large-cap growth going forward as well? j Hi Sandtrap, I saw your question and I thought I take a stab at responding to it. Just have to warn you that I am only right about anything around here about every 6 months or so. So it will likely be completely w...