Search found 13389 matches

by nedsaid
Tue Jul 07, 2020 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why [was] QSPIX steadily declining?
Replies: 151
Views: 17723

Re: Why [was] QSPIX steadily declining?

"But then again, Cliff Asness is a billionaire and I am not. So which of the two of us is smarter?" "My suspicion is that Cliff will take the hot air balloon home and I will be left with the ruby slippers. Like I said, he is a billionaire and I am not." The concept is wealth transference via manage...
by nedsaid
Tue Jul 07, 2020 8:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1792
Views: 142848

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

MotoTrojan wrote:
Tue Jul 07, 2020 8:48 am
nedsaid wrote:
Tue Jul 07, 2020 8:40 am

Yes, that is the challenge, trying to find that slice of the market that performs best.
The holy grail! When I find it, I'll be sure to keep it to myself :moneybag :greedy :twisted: .
Even better, I will write a newsletter just saying that I have found it. :wink:
by nedsaid
Tue Jul 07, 2020 8:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1792
Views: 142848

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Cliff Asness; unlikely Value has been arbed away, given the spread between rich & cheap stocks (sometimes a charge on this forum) & Value is 100th percentile cheap. https://youtu.be/6ND_earUEGg Been waiting for this matchup for quite some time! Cliff on Rational Reminder was awesome as well, but I ...
by nedsaid
Tue Jul 07, 2020 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why [was] QSPIX steadily declining?
Replies: 151
Views: 17723

Re: Why [was] QSPIX steadily declining?

What QSPIX clearly demonstrates is that expensive complex strategies based on factor models done by very knowledgeable "experts" like Mr. Asness can completely fail to achieve what they set out to do for 6.5 years and in fact create substantial monetary harm to the true believers who held on. Appar...
by nedsaid
Tue Jul 07, 2020 8:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1792
Views: 142848

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

nedsaid wrote: At some point, you would think that those of us with Value tilts will be vindicated. On the other hand, perhaps we should refine our definition of Value and maybe look for the cheapest Growth stocks. I think that's really the crux of the matter--exactly how to define a value index th...
by nedsaid
Tue Jul 07, 2020 7:58 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Am I crazy to do this? [Equity Allocation 50/50 TSM/NASDAQ]
Replies: 138
Views: 8681

Re: Am I crazy to do this?

The internet bust was due to stock flying high and having no or virtual no earnings. Google, Facebook, apple, etc. all are earning huge amounts of money. Are they overpriced? Possibly although I think the entire market is. Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Google and Netflix combined have more fr...
by nedsaid
Mon Jul 06, 2020 8:11 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Am I crazy to do this? [Equity Allocation 50/50 TSM/NASDAQ]
Replies: 138
Views: 8681

Re: Am I crazy to do this?

The internet bust was due to stock flying high and having no or virtual no earnings. Google, Facebook, apple, etc. all are earning huge amounts of money. Are they overpriced? Possibly although I think the entire market is. Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Google and Netflix combined have more fr...
by nedsaid
Mon Jul 06, 2020 8:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1792
Views: 142848

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Cliff Asness; unlikely Value has been arbed away, given the spread between rich & cheap stocks (sometimes a charge on this forum) & Value is 100th percentile cheap. https://youtu.be/6ND_earUEGg Been waiting for this matchup for quite some time! Cliff on Rational Reminder was awesome as well, but I ...
by nedsaid
Mon Jul 06, 2020 7:57 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ready to Pull the Trigger on Small Cap Value
Replies: 31
Views: 2044

Re: Ready to Pull the Trigger on Small Cap Value

If you have a deep intellectual commitment to the factors and academic research, I would say go for it. As I have reviewed portfolios, I rarely discuss factor tilting anymore, certainly not because I don't believe in it. Value has been trailing Growth for over a decade now, at least since 2009. Not ...
by nedsaid
Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:04 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Do Not Go Gentle On Us!!! Personal Portfolio Suggestions Needed!!
Replies: 67
Views: 5984

Re: Do Not Go Gentle On Us!!! Personal Portfolio Suggestions Needed!!

Sad to say, fifty somethings are now targeted for lay-offs and have been for some time. We see this particularly in High Tech and we see it in the Finance industry. Lots of laid off folks never recover their former earning power. I wonder if someone is pushing this in the Business schools. I'm not ...
by nedsaid
Sat Jul 04, 2020 9:46 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Least Expensive Way to Have a Cellphone for emergency use only?
Replies: 54
Views: 3522

Re: Least Expensive Way to Have a Cellphone for emergency use only?

Tracphone is cheap, I pay about $11 a month. Unused minutes each month roll over to the next month.
by nedsaid
Sat Jul 04, 2020 9:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Alternatives in the time of Zero rates
Replies: 50
Views: 4549

Re: Bond Alternatives in the time of Zero rates

I have thought this over long and hard and so far I have not found an alternative to bonds as a diversifier to stocks. We will have to learn to live with less yield from bonds and probably lower returns from stocks as well. We have been in a bond bull market since 1982 and most of us have not experi...
by nedsaid
Sat Jul 04, 2020 9:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REITS no longer cheap
Replies: 93
Views: 15434

Re: REITS no longer cheap

now at +7% This could mean that REITs are indeed overvalued or it could mean that the market anticipates a rebound in Commercial Real Estate prices. I am keeping what I have but this isn't the time to go diving in either. I am pretty much neutral on REITs would recommend them only for inflation fan...
by nedsaid
Sat Jul 04, 2020 8:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Have Bogleheads soured on TIPS due to performance or structure?
Replies: 41
Views: 2497

Re: Have Bogleheads soured on TIPS due to performance or structure?

Is this because of poor performance and low inflation? My guess is the lack of enthusiasm for TIPS is primarily a combination of recency bias and performance chasing. In other words, the answer to your question is likely “yes”. Well that is not very Bogleheadish! Unfortunately, even Bogleheads are ...
by nedsaid
Sat Jul 04, 2020 1:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Thinking about joining Air National Guard at 31 years
Replies: 94
Views: 5964

Re: Thinking about joining Air National Guard at 31 years

Why do you want to join? It has been my dream since I came to US in 2012, but having a Masters degree, I did not want to enlist. And I could not be an Officer candidate till last year when I became a citizen. There are couple of reasons why I want to join: 1. Military life has always fascinated me ...
by nedsaid
Sat Jul 04, 2020 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why [was] QSPIX steadily declining?
Replies: 151
Views: 17723

Re: Why [was] QSPIX steadily declining?

Just resurrecting this for a minute. Didn't get an answer to my question, only a title change ("was" substituted to "is"). Looks like reinstating the original title is long overdue. :happy I haven’t seen the latest performance attribution reports, but I think value is still weighing against this fu...
by nedsaid
Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:12 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Celebrating the Fourth of July
Replies: 17
Views: 1077

Re: Celebrating the Fourth of July

LadyGeek wrote:
Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:10 am
This thread is now in the US Chapters Bogleheads Community forum (US holiday).

Independence Hall is local to me (Philadelphia).

🎆 🧨 🎇
Hi Lady Geek, I visited Independence Hall in 2010 during an East Coast Amtrak Rail Trip. It was a big highlight. I want to visit again.
by nedsaid
Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Value Betting vs. The Stock Market"
Replies: 18
Views: 1816

Re: "Value Betting vs. The Stock Market"

I don't think you understood what that article is about, Taylor. In defense of Taylor, Larry Swedroe has talked about a very similar topic. He related Value investing to so-called Value betting, there are similarities but also big differences. I suppose Larry was using this as somewhat of an analog...
by nedsaid
Sat Jul 04, 2020 9:45 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Celebrating the Fourth of July
Replies: 17
Views: 1077

Celebrating the Fourth of July

Hello Fellow Bogleheads, wanted to let you know that I am proudly celebrating the birth of our country, July 4th, 1776. This was the day when the Continental Congress issued the Declaration of Independence. Hopefully I will be joined by countless others in celebrating the birth of our great nation.
by nedsaid
Sat Jul 04, 2020 9:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Doesn’t Recent Small Value Underperformance Create It’s Own Argument For Incorporation Into A Portfolio?
Replies: 17
Views: 1237

Re: Doesn’t Recent Small Value Underperformance Create It’s Own Argument For Incorporation Into A Portfolio?

^ how does CAPM explain the higher risk-adjusted performance of low vol stocks? I don't think that it does, I think that this phenomenon started people to think about factors as obviously there was more effecting stock returns than just market beta. We are now on a five factor model for stock retur...
by nedsaid
Sat Jul 04, 2020 9:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Value Betting vs. The Stock Market"
Replies: 18
Views: 1816

Re: "Value Betting vs. The Stock Market"

Taylor, of all people, you have fallen for recency bias. I am seen thread after thread that you have started regarding the "Death of Value". Just a gentle reminder that the S&P 500 and the Total Stock Market Index were flat from 2000-2012, don't recall even one thread regarding the "Death of the S&P...
by nedsaid
Sat Jul 04, 2020 9:12 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Do Not Go Gentle On Us!!! Personal Portfolio Suggestions Needed!!
Replies: 67
Views: 5984

Re: Do Not Go Gentle On Us!!! Personal Portfolio Suggestions Needed!!

Fourth, to make your investment portfolios truly long term, you need an emergency fund large enough so that you don't have to tap your portfolios in an emergency or to pay bills. My recommendation is 6 months of living expenses in something like an FDIC Insured Savings Account or a US Treasury Mone...
by nedsaid
Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is 60/40 portfolio now dead?
Replies: 22
Views: 2278

Re: Is 60/40 portfolio now dead?

No, that is just silly. No allocation is dead. 60/40 is just fine and I see nothing wrong with it. The financial press needs something to write about. So far so good but interest rates are really, really low and this has thrown a kink in retirement planning. No signs yet that the 60/40 is dead but ...
by nedsaid
Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:48 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is wealthfront Stock Level investing under appreciated by Boglehead community?
Replies: 47
Views: 2827

Re: Is wealthfront Stock Level investing under appreciated by Boglehead community?

The problem with something like this is that things change. Wealthfront could sell to somebody else or even if Wealthfront stayed independent, they could at some point raise the fees. They could decide to discontinue the program. But in theory, something like this should work. Pretty much, if they s...
by nedsaid
Thu Jul 02, 2020 1:15 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is wealthfront Stock Level investing under appreciated by Boglehead community?
Replies: 47
Views: 2827

Re: Is wealthfront Stock Level investing under appreciated by Boglehead community?

I think there is something to be said for what Wealthfront is trying to do here. If done right, you should about match the Index in performance while harvesting capital losses. As I understand this, over time you raise the tax basis or the cost of the portfolio over time so that you don't have a gig...
by nedsaid
Thu Jul 02, 2020 12:53 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Do Not Go Gentle On Us!!! Personal Portfolio Suggestions Needed!!
Replies: 67
Views: 5984

Re: Do Not Go Gentle On Us!!! Personal Portfolio Suggestions Needed!!

Just some general comments here. One of the first things is what do you want your portfolio to do for you? You both are relatively young with a young family. What I am hearing is that you are investing for retirement and investing for college education for your kids. Pretty much that is a growth por...
by nedsaid
Thu Jul 02, 2020 12:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone stocking real commodities (as inflation hedge and for a doomsday)?
Replies: 24
Views: 1386

Re: Anyone stocking real commodities (as inflation hedge and for a doomsday)?

That does it, Nedsaid announces that he is starting a Toilet Paper Managed Futures Interval Fund. I am already offering a Cash Stashed in Mattresses mutual fund that offers ZERO correlation to stocks, a cool 1% AUM, mattress cost money after all plus the warehouses to store those mattresses and the...
by nedsaid
Wed Jul 01, 2020 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much tilting to SCV (rule of thumb)?
Replies: 95
Views: 6110

Re: How much tilting to SCV in or near retirement?

It is obvious to me that overweighting Small Cap Value stocks in or near retirement can be a major mistake. Consider the current retirement portfolios of investors who tried to beat the market by overweighting Small Cap Value stocks 10 years ago. They are way behind investors using low-cost, tax-ef...
by nedsaid
Wed Jul 01, 2020 4:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone stocking real commodities (as inflation hedge and for a doomsday)?
Replies: 24
Views: 1386

Re: Anyone stocking real commodities (as inflation hedge and for a doomsday)?

I am already offering a Cash Stashed in Mattresses mutual fund that offers ZERO correlation to stocks, a cool 1% AUM, mattress cost money after all plus the warehouses to store those mattresses and the armed guards to protect them. Are you keeping those tags on the mattresses? You know, the ones th...
by nedsaid
Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone stocking real commodities (as inflation hedge and for a doomsday)?
Replies: 24
Views: 1386

Re: Anyone stocking real commodities (as inflation hedge and for a doomsday)?

Seriously, stocking a pantry is a time honored tradition and it makes a lot of sense. Prudent preparation for hard times has always been a good idea, my grandparents did just that.
by nedsaid
Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone stocking real commodities (as inflation hedge and for a doomsday)?
Replies: 24
Views: 1386

Re: Anyone stocking real commodities (as inflation hedge and for a doomsday)?

That does it, Nedsaid announces that he is starting a Toilet Paper Managed Futures Interval Fund. I am already offering a Cash Stashed in Mattresses mutual fund that offers ZERO correlation to stocks, a cool 1% AUM, mattress cost money after all plus the warehouses to store those mattresses and the ...
by nedsaid
Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:32 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Looking for verification on Annuity pitch...
Replies: 80
Views: 4931

Re: Looking for verification on Annuity pitch...

Variable Annuities as an investment for a Tax Deferred Retirement account for me are a no go. The only possible reason you might invest are for the "living benefits" which are income and/or principal guarantees. The benefits in most all cases are pretty marginal compared to the high costs. You are l...
by nedsaid
Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:09 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should I move everything to Fidelity Freedom target retirement fund?
Replies: 33
Views: 2259

Re: Should I move everything to Fidelity Freedom target retirement fund?

My 401k ( 700k ) is all invested in Vanguard 2020 target retirement fund ( 0.05% expense ratio ). I now want to do the same for my ROTH, SEP IRA, TIRA and HSA account. The total of all those are 250k. Seems like FPIFX is what I am looking for. The expense ratio is 0.12 %. If that is ok, do I just s...
by nedsaid
Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:04 am
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: For every "YES" there are 10 "No's" and Vice Versa?
Replies: 28
Views: 1910

Re: For every "YES" there are 10 "No's" and Vice Versa?

Hi Bogleheads, I have been diving into the Bogleheads posts on every imaginable topic there is, I noticed for every agreeable opinion on any topic there are equally opposing views? How does one discern which opinion to follow among all the opposites if one is seeking a solution to a problem? What h...
by nedsaid
Wed Jul 01, 2020 8:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rekenthaler (Morningstar): Jack Bogle was Wrong about ETFs
Replies: 46
Views: 2884

Re: Rekenthaler (Morningstar): Jack Bogle was Wrong about ETFs

no mention in the article of bid/ask spreads and premium/discount to NAV. i stick with mutual funds where possible. There was a problem in March 2020. Weird things were happening during a 3 week period in March and this affected bid/ask spreads and premium/discount to NAV. Caution is needed when tr...
by nedsaid
Wed Jul 01, 2020 8:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rekenthaler (Morningstar): Jack Bogle was Wrong about ETFs
Replies: 46
Views: 2884

Re: Rekenthaler (Morningstar): Jack Bogle was Wrong about ETFs

Yawn. I'm trying to keep my nose out of my granddaughter's boyfriend's investments via Robinhood, but I'm pretty sure it isn't broad index mutual funds. I'd be happy if only it were ETFs. I hope it's only individual stocks. Whatever the behavioral dangers of ETFs, they pale into insignificance next...
by nedsaid
Tue Jun 30, 2020 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current PE ratios on Vanguard ETFs?
Replies: 15
Views: 1201

Re: Current PE ratios on Vanguard ETFs?

Keep in mind that P/E ratios are affected by a (hopefully) temporary drop in earnings due to the recent pandemic. Keep your eye on forward earnings estimates. At the moment, forward earning estimates are dependent on the course of the pandemic and the reaction to that course. The spike of cases in ...
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 28, 2020 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current PE ratios on Vanguard ETFs?
Replies: 15
Views: 1201

Re: Current PE ratios on Vanguard ETFs?

Keep in mind that P/E ratios are affected by a (hopefully) temporary drop in earnings due to the recent pandemic. Keep your eye on forward earnings estimates.
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 28, 2020 1:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Introducing Schwab Stock Slices™ – Designed to Make Investing Easier and More Accessible
Replies: 44
Views: 5010

Re: Introducing Schwab Stock Slices™ – Designed to Make Investing Easier and More Accessible

nisiprius wrote:
Tue May 05, 2020 1:26 pm
Try saying "Schwab Stock Slices" ten times fast. I think it's even harder than "Wealthfront."
Peter Piper picked a peck of pickled peppers.
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 28, 2020 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What would happen to bond funds if Fed didn't intervene in March
Replies: 15
Views: 975

Re: What would happen to bond funds if Fed didn't intervene in March

If the Fed hadn't intervened, my guess is that the bond market would have been even more volatile. I have been warning around here for years that much of the bond market is not very liquid and that you could see volatility in a crisis. Doesn't mean bonds shouldn't be invested in, just means that you...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 27, 2020 8:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: PAS advisor portfolio [Why did they setup my accounts like this?]
Replies: 184
Views: 8592

Re: PAS advisor portfolio [Why did they setup my accounts like this?]

I’m not sure why you think I’m not interested and don’t want to make the effort. I’ve been reading and posting and talking to PAS..I’m very much interested and I want to get it right as I can. I’ll keep at it and in the meantime I’m in a decent portfolio with PAS until I feel more confident. Just g...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 27, 2020 8:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: PAS advisor portfolio [Why did they setup my accounts like this?]
Replies: 184
Views: 8592

Re: PAS advisor portfolio [Why did they setup my accounts like this?]

The whole reason that I want people to go through the exercise of writing an Investment Policy Statement is that it forces you to think things through and that it organizes your thoughts. It is also a way of learning more about yourself. One takeaway that I take from this is that you are a fairly ri...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 27, 2020 7:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA Entering ETF space
Replies: 29
Views: 2628

Re: DFA Entering ETF space

Weird. 1) What happens to DFA's long-standing claim, that they make their products only available through advisors (with some recent exceptions in some 401(k) plans) in order to ensure that they are sold only to investors who have been "coached" by advisors and are following a disciplined, long-ter...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 27, 2020 7:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SEC issues risk alert on private equity shenanigans
Replies: 11
Views: 1045

Re: SEC issues risk alert on private equity shenanigans

Certainly Private Equity has its drawbacks. To me it all hinges on the integrity and reputation of the managers of these private equity funds. Since these investments are not liquid there needs to be a higher standard of due diligence here since you can't just hit the "sell" button if something goes...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 27, 2020 7:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: PAS advisor portfolio [Why did they setup my accounts like this?]
Replies: 184
Views: 8592

Re: PAS advisor portfolio [Why did they setup my accounts like this?]

I may be a backseat driver. But this is my dilemma. I got a PAS portfolio in 2015 and 2018 and just followed that rather than sign up for the service. I panicked. Why did I panic? Because I was following a FORMULA I didn’t understand. I’m trying to UNDERSTAND and agree rather than have someone driv...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 27, 2020 5:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: PAS advisor portfolio [Why did they setup my accounts like this?]
Replies: 184
Views: 8592

Re: PAS advisor portfolio [Why did they setup my accounts like this?]

I may be a backseat driver. But this is my dilemma. I got a PAS portfolio in 2015 and 2018 and just followed that rather than sign up for the service. I panicked. Why did I panic? Because I was following a FORMULA I didn’t understand. I’m trying to UNDERSTAND and agree rather than have someone driv...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 27, 2020 3:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: PAS advisor portfolio [Why did they setup my accounts like this?]
Replies: 184
Views: 8592

Re: PAS advisor portfolio [Why did they setup my accounts like this?]

After having read through much of the thread, my conclusion is that the Original Poster is the ideal candidate for Vanguard Personal Advisory service. The OP panicked out of the market and sought help getting back in and now is the equivalent of the backseat driver or the armchair quarterback. In Au...
by nedsaid
Fri Jun 26, 2020 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA Entering ETF space
Replies: 29
Views: 2628

Re: DFA Entering ETF space

Oh goody! More things to argue about in the factor threads. DFA vs. Avantis, bring it on!
by nedsaid
Wed Jun 24, 2020 10:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Malkiel weighs in on passive investing and alternatives to the 60/40...
Replies: 39
Views: 4569

Re: Burton Malkiel on bond allocation and indexing

Malkiel sees 60/40 as too much weight in bonds which have zero expected real yields going forward and carry significant principal risk if rates rise. Did Malkiel actually say "significant principal risk"? Because that's not true. Bonds are self-correcting. If interest rates go up, yes, bond fund va...