Search found 8458 matches

by nedsaid
Wed Oct 18, 2017 7:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Using Jack Bogle's own words against him when it comes to international investing"
Replies: 11
Views: 1183

Re: "Using Jack Bogle's own words against him when it comes to international investing"

It is not irrational to be a US only investor. So far, this has worked out well for investors. As a matter of philosophy and prudence, I choose to invest outside the borders of the United States. The thing is, my bark is worse than my bite as 28% of my stocks and 7% of my bonds are International. So...
by nedsaid
Wed Oct 18, 2017 2:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does everyone keep track of your portfolio?
Replies: 104
Views: 5410

Re: How does everyone keep track of your portfolio?

I use Quicken and also have my portfolios on Morningstar. I also keep a tabbed spreadsheet and create a new tab for each calendar year. This way, I can see my progress from year to year.
by nedsaid
Wed Oct 18, 2017 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe:Better To Face The Correction
Replies: 41
Views: 3874

Re: Larry Swedroe:Better To Face The Correction

There is an old saying about being on the train when it leaves the station. Markets move up in short unpredictable bursts, volatility is on the upside as well as the downside. You never know when the market will have its violent upward moves. Though I am not a believer in market timing, I do believe...
by nedsaid
Tue Oct 17, 2017 6:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30th Anniversary of October 19, 1987 stock market crash
Replies: 32
Views: 2306

Re: 30th Anniversary of October 19, 1987 stock market crash

Bogleheads: My wife and I were on a cruise in the South China Seas on October 19, 1987. Word came over the wireless that the stock market had plunged 22%. The ship had only 2 telephones to the U.S. and both telephones had long lines of scared passengers waiting to call their brokers to sell. I reme...
by nedsaid
Tue Oct 17, 2017 6:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Advice-Only In Action: An Interview With Allan Roth"
Replies: 5
Views: 660

Re: "Advice-Only In Action: An Interview With Allan Roth"

My advice about getting advice is to pay for it by the hour. Assets Under Management (AUM) agreements in my mind are just too expensive. The industry standard is 1% per year, I find it alarming that both Ameriprise and Edward Jones charge in excess of that. For a $500,000 portfolio, a 1% AUM fee is ...
by nedsaid
Tue Oct 17, 2017 6:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The overselling of international diversification
Replies: 45
Views: 3525

Re: The overselling of international diversification

The efficient frontiers that I have seen show that the sweet spot of International diversification is about 30% of a stock portfolio. Actually, I didn't see all that much difference between 20% and 50%. Currently, Vanguard is recommending an allocation of 40% of stocks to International. I am at 28%.
by nedsaid
Tue Oct 17, 2017 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: [How to get started buying stocks]
Replies: 11
Views: 686

Re: [How to get started buying stocks]

I am very new investing. I have a 401 K through work and Roth IRA's. I was wanting to learn more about investing in stocks and wondered if it was a good idea or if it's even possible to buy one stock at a time and see how I do. If that is something that is feasible which website would I do that thr...
by nedsaid
Tue Oct 17, 2017 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard expects "decent sized correction" soon, sometime, maybe later
Replies: 67
Views: 6220

Re: Vanguard expects "decent sized correction" soon

We have had a very strong stock market as we are at all time highs here in the United States. Our last correction was from August 2015 - February 2016 and the market barely touched the 20% down mark, which is the signal for a bear market. I don't know what constitutes being "due" for a correction b...
by nedsaid
Tue Oct 17, 2017 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard expects "decent sized correction" soon, sometime, maybe later
Replies: 67
Views: 6220

Re: Vanguard expects "decent sized correction" soon

We have had a very strong stock market as we are at all time highs here in the United States. Our last correction was from August 2015 - February 2016 and the market barely touched the 20% down mark, which is the signal for a bear market. I don't know what constitutes being "due" for a correction bu...
by nedsaid
Sun Oct 15, 2017 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: bonds [is TSEMX Touchstone Sands Capital good for my IRA?]
Replies: 4
Views: 184

Re: bonds [is TSEMX Touchstone Sands Capital good for my IRA?]

This is an actively managed Emerging Markets Stock Fund. This is not investing in bonds, the fund has to be at least 80% invested in Emerging Markets Stocks. Expense ratio is not horrible for actively managed funds in this space but I think you can do better.
by nedsaid
Sun Oct 15, 2017 2:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your most important decision in one minute
Replies: 1
Views: 925

Re: Your most important decision in one minute

The allocation of stocks and bonds in your portfolio.
by nedsaid
Sun Oct 15, 2017 2:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Discipline Trumps Distraction
Replies: 3
Views: 986

Re: Larry Swedroe: Discipline Trumps Distraction

This is an encouraging article, pretty much Swedroe argues that there is Value in Value, their relative valuation compared to Growth stocks is at least as good as it was back in 1994. Larry said that the P/E ratio of Large Value stocks in August 2017 was 16.4 compared to 24.1 for Large Growth. I act...
by nedsaid
Sun Oct 15, 2017 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Favorite Alternative Funds
Replies: 172
Views: 18137

Re: My Favorite Alternative Funds

Garland, Couple of thoughts. I do not view alternatives as bond-like risk. Volatility-wise, most of them are somewhat lower than stocks and somewhat higher than bonds. Some strategies also have tail risks that need to be understood. Being risky investments, alternatives also benefit from diversific...
by nedsaid
Sun Oct 15, 2017 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends vs. Capital Gains for Spending Needs?
Replies: 191
Views: 13532

Re: Dividends vs. Capital Gains for Spending Needs?

I have a preference for dividends but I don't chase them and I don't buy investments just for their yield. The market does a pretty good job setting prices, I know people who have chased yield too hard only to see the value of their securities decline over time. What the extra yield giveth, decline...
by nedsaid
Sat Oct 14, 2017 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Do You Like My New 'Doo
Replies: 78
Views: 17815

Re: How Do You Like My New 'Doo

Nedsaid I really do appreciate you sharing your experiences with me and other Bogleheads. Nedsaid: It is my hope that others will learn from what I have done right and what I have done wrong. My portfolio is not as complex as it appears, my portfolios are all invested in similar fashion except my B...
by nedsaid
Sat Oct 14, 2017 2:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: what to do with 403b plan after retirement
Replies: 5
Views: 441

Re: what to do with 403b plan after retirement

I am a Vanguard Voyager. My 403b mutual funds have been rolled over to admiral shares. It states that I need to be a plan participant for the $60 annual fee with the change over to Newport Custodian. ( is it $60 annual PER mutual fund or for ALL my mutual funds?) However, I am not really considered...
by nedsaid
Sat Oct 14, 2017 2:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which would you rather own: AAPL or S&P 600 Small Cap Index?
Replies: 57
Views: 3129

Re: Which would you rather own: AAPL or S&P 600 Small Cap Index?

If you had to choose, which equity exposure would you rather have, 100% Apple stock or 100% S&P 600 small cap index? I'm wondering, since they have approximately the same market cap. Apple is worth $803 billion and the combined value of the constituents in the S&P 600 is $780 billion. Total stock m...
by nedsaid
Sat Oct 14, 2017 2:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Met with a CFP, not too impressed.
Replies: 28
Views: 4832

Re: Met with a CFP, not too impressed.

Sometimes these reviews turn out better than expected. A friend of mine was in the insurance business for a few years and I had my insurance business with him. That company did a full review of my retirement investments and I was very pleasantly surprised. Thought I would get the big pitch for whole...
by nedsaid
Sat Oct 14, 2017 2:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Do You Like My New 'Doo
Replies: 78
Views: 17815

Re: How Do You Like My New 'Doo

I am telling people what I have done so that there is transparency. I don't like to tell people to do as I say and not as I do. You can see that I have done some things that are not recommended by the Boglehead's forum. My estimate is that my portfolio is about 35% indexed, 12% to 13% in individual ...
by nedsaid
Fri Oct 13, 2017 3:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Offensive Valuations
Replies: 45
Views: 4069

Re: Offensive Valuations

Another issue is that impairment of assets have to be reflected on the financial statements, goodwill isn't the only such asset. Most of the companies I worked for had low book values for fixed assets so doesn't seem like a problem. Prior values for fixed assets were matched with prior revenues. If...
by nedsaid
Fri Oct 13, 2017 3:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends vs. Capital Gains for Spending Needs?
Replies: 191
Views: 13532

Re: Dividends vs. Capital Gains for Spending Needs?

I have a preference for dividends but I don't chase them and I don't buy investments just for their yield. The market does a pretty good job setting prices, I know people who have chased yield too hard only to see the value of their securities decline over time. What the extra yield giveth, decline...
by nedsaid
Fri Oct 13, 2017 8:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 2018 ACA costs arrived
Replies: 86
Views: 9350

Re: 2018 ACA costs arrived

My premiums are up 12% to 15%. I am not happy.
by nedsaid
Fri Oct 13, 2017 8:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends vs. Capital Gains for Spending Needs?
Replies: 191
Views: 13532

Re: Dividends vs. Capital Gains for Spending Needs?

... The above is from the beginning and the end of article. Why all the negatively about dividends , is it because Larry showed so much disdain for them, I read some of his rants on seeking alpha. He was down right mean to some posters. ... We are not against dividends. We are against misunderstand...
by nedsaid
Thu Oct 12, 2017 11:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best Career Advice for those over "50"
Replies: 60
Views: 6221

Re: Best Career Advice for those over "50"

I agree with you however in recent years things have changed. In the major metropolitan areas of the West Coast, it is just getting darned expensive to live. Housing is more expensive, even the cheaper options have been bid up. Healthcare premiums have zoomed, and now that I am on my own to buy my ...
by nedsaid
Thu Oct 12, 2017 9:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Offensive Valuations
Replies: 45
Views: 4069

Re: Offensive Valuations

Keep in mind that changes in Generally Accepted Accounting Principles have created a more conservative definition of earnings over time. Today's P/E is not your father's P/E! Larry Swedroe estimates these changes could be as much as 4 points on the P/E. If S&P Forward Estimated P/E is about 20, the...
by nedsaid
Thu Oct 12, 2017 9:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best Career Advice for those over "50"
Replies: 60
Views: 6221

Re: Best Career Advice for those over "50"

OP, The best career advice is to retire and/or be FI before 50 years old. That was my plan. I saved 30+% of my gross income in order to achieve that. But, I lost 50% of my investment because I gambled on Telecom stock. Or else, I would have met my goal. After that mistake, I have to retire or FI af...
by nedsaid
Thu Oct 12, 2017 7:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best Career Advice for those over "50"
Replies: 60
Views: 6221

Re: Best Career Advice for those over "50"

OP, The best career advice is to retire and/or be FI before 50 years old. That was my plan. I saved 30+% of my gross income in order to achieve that. But, I lost 50% of my investment because I gambled on Telecom stock. Or else, I would have met my goal. After that mistake, I have to retire or FI af...
by nedsaid
Thu Oct 12, 2017 7:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy when there's blood in the streets!
Replies: 39
Views: 6225

Re: Buy when there's blood in the streets!

I know it wasn't intended this way, but coming so soon after the Las Vegas Shooting and the all-to-often gun violence that seems to occur on a daily basis...perhaps we can start using a different metaphor? The point is that buying on really bad news is often profitable. The unfortunate metaphor rel...
by nedsaid
Thu Oct 12, 2017 7:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Do You Like My New 'Doo
Replies: 78
Views: 17815

Re: How Do You Like My New 'Doo

1. US Total Stock Market Index 12.23% (Up 15.41% year to date) 2. Vanguard US Total Bond Market Index 6.28% In Fund and in ETF form. (Up 3.32% YTD) 3. Diversified Bond Fund 6.12% (Up 3.30% year to date) 4. Cash Balance Retirement Pension 4.34% (Frozen after 2009). 5. TIPS Fund 3.45% (Up 2.20% Year t...
by nedsaid
Thu Oct 12, 2017 6:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Offensive Valuations
Replies: 45
Views: 4069

Re: Offensive Valuations

I'd like to post this and get replies. I am a business analyst by trade for a mega corp, so this is how I think. 1. I treat the S&P 500 as a "business", for which I can buy shares of this business. 2. As an analyst I know how fudged most of the accounting is, and so I use what nobody can really 'ad...
by nedsaid
Thu Oct 12, 2017 6:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive
Replies: 73
Views: 6799

Re: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive

It is interesting that when I did a stock by stock analysis in another thread comparing financial stocks versus stocks in other industries, I couldn't help but notice that trailing P/E ratios were looking rather high. JP Morgan Chase Trailing P/E 14 Forward P/E 12.6 US Bancorp Trailing P/E 16 Forwar...
by nedsaid
Thu Oct 12, 2017 6:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive
Replies: 73
Views: 6799

Re: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive

If you went back to 2007 or even early 2008, I saw articles saying that International Stocks were the "must have" asset class because their long term performance was better than U.S. with limited correlation. A great diversifier. That shows what eight years of underperformance relative to US can do...
by nedsaid
Wed Oct 11, 2017 4:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive
Replies: 73
Views: 6799

Re: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive

International indexes always seem cheap compared to the US. That didn't lead to them having better returns, in fact long term performance of international funds drastically underperformed the US. Well of course long term performance doesn't look too good right now. From 2009-2016, US Stocks outperf...
by nedsaid
Wed Oct 11, 2017 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor investing: should financial firms be excluded when screening for value?
Replies: 31
Views: 1445

Re: Factor investing: should financial firms be excluded when screening for value?

Perhaps a follow-up question would be: is there a good book or video or whatever to learn about balance sheets and financial statements in general? Something about financial ratios would be a good start. Within an industry there are averages. Quick ratio all the way to return on equity. The PE Meth...
by nedsaid
Wed Oct 11, 2017 1:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor investing: should financial firms be excluded when screening for value?
Replies: 31
Views: 1445

Re: Factor investing: should financial firms be excluded when screening for value?

I was also making a point about "enterprise value" or "going concern value" that the accountants can't capture. Not their job anyway, just provide information for decision making. Rating, ranking, and pricing companies in the market is for buyers and sellers. Current account balances is all they ne...
by nedsaid
Wed Oct 11, 2017 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor investing: should financial firms be excluded when screening for value?
Replies: 31
Views: 1445

Re: Factor investing: should financial firms be excluded when screening for value?

Thanks nedsaid! This has given me the opportunity to look up some balance sheets - something I am begining to teach mysef to read. Please excuse me if I say something silly - I am a complete beginner in this - I just wanted to confirm one thing: are 'book value' and 'stockholders equity' the same? ...
by nedsaid
Wed Oct 11, 2017 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor investing: should financial firms be excluded when screening for value?
Replies: 31
Views: 1445

Re: Factor investing: should financial firms be excluded when screening for value?

Business have an additional "going concern" value. It is sort of like Newton's laws of motion. What is in motion tends to stay in motion. They have established brands, loyal customers, competitive advantages. These and other things like intellectual property are difficult for accountants to measure...
by nedsaid
Wed Oct 11, 2017 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor investing: should financial firms be excluded when screening for value?
Replies: 31
Views: 1445

Re: Factor investing: should financial firms be excluded when screening for value?

These and other things like intellectual property are difficult for accountants to measure which is why you see a big difference between what in theory is liquidation value and the value put on a company by the stock market. In other words, a business is worth more than the sum total of its assets ...
by nedsaid
Tue Oct 10, 2017 8:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's long-term outlook for TIPS
Replies: 92
Views: 6928

Re: Vanguard's long-term outlook for TIPS

I still get it why people would be surprised by TIPS dropping in the face of a market crash: who exactly would be gobbling them up to fight inflation after a crash? Larry Swedroe for one. Some folks here followed his advice and scooped them up in the aftermath of the 2008-2009 financial crisis. Tha...
by nedsaid
Tue Oct 10, 2017 8:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor investing: should financial firms be excluded when screening for value?
Replies: 31
Views: 1445

Re: Factor investing: should financial firms be excluded when screening for value?

Good point about comparability. US Bancorp is considered to be a financially strong bank, its balance sheet is 10% equity and 90% liabilities. But that is just looking at what the accountants say that US Bank is worth about $48 billion but the market values it at $90 billion. US Bank has a trailing...
by nedsaid
Tue Oct 10, 2017 8:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor investing: should financial firms be excluded when screening for value?
Replies: 31
Views: 1445

Re: Factor investing: should financial firms be excluded when screening for value?

I have read a working paper (not available on the web unfortunately) by AlphaArchitect in which they back-tested different value metrics (FCF/TEV, EBIT/TEV, P/E, B/M) to see which works better, and they excluded financials in their tests. I read a piece by a value manager in Europe who also thinks ...
by nedsaid
Tue Oct 10, 2017 7:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor investing: should financial firms be excluded when screening for value?
Replies: 31
Views: 1445

Re: Factor investing: should financial firms be excluded when screening for value?

The underlying reason for the exclusion is not something nefarious but simply because the financial statements of banks, other financial firms, utilities, and "industrial" (i.e. everyone else) companies simply look different from one another. And key for the academic researchers using Compustat is ...
by nedsaid
Tue Oct 10, 2017 5:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor investing: should financial firms be excluded when screening for value?
Replies: 31
Views: 1445

Re: Factor investing: should financial firms be excluded when screening for value?

I have read a working paper (not available on the web unfortunately) by AlphaArchitect in which they back-tested different value metrics (FCF/TEV, EBIT/TEV, P/E, B/M) to see which works better, and they excluded financials in their tests. I read a piece by a value manager in Europe who also thinks ...
by nedsaid
Tue Oct 10, 2017 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's long-term outlook for TIPS
Replies: 92
Views: 6928

Re: Vanguard's long-term outlook for TIPS

Well yes, I was surprised at the performance of TIPS during the financial crisis. My recollection is that they dropped about 10%-11%. Markets never cease to surprise. More like 15%. http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart?t=VIPSX®ion=usa&culture=en_US&dataParams=%7B%22zoomKey%22%3A11%2C%2...
by nedsaid
Tue Oct 10, 2017 11:38 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: When to buy new tires? - penny or quarter test
Replies: 35
Views: 2163

Re: When to buy new tires? - penny or quarter test

I've heard of the penny test but it looks like Consumer Reports and others recommend replacing tires sooner - https://www.consumerreports.org/tires/when-to-replace-your-tires/ I know a lot of people replace their batteries early on here but who replaces tires at ~4/32" instead of 2/32"? Seems to ma...
by nedsaid
Tue Oct 10, 2017 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 12 things you can learn from Richard Thaler
Replies: 6
Views: 797

Re: 12 things you can learn from Richard Thaler

I am a big believer in the behavioral aspects of investing, pretty much the hardest thing is to control your own emotions and not do the wrong thing at the wrong time. I am glad more attention is being given to this.
by nedsaid
Tue Oct 10, 2017 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's long-term outlook for TIPS
Replies: 92
Views: 6928

Re: Vanguard's long-term outlook for TIPS

I still get it why people would be surprised by TIPS dropping in the face of a market crash: who exactly would be gobbling them up to fight inflation after a crash? Larry Swedroe for one. Some folks here followed his advice and scooped them up in the aftermath of the 2008-2009 financial crisis. In ...
by nedsaid
Tue Oct 10, 2017 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Probably a very simple investing principle but....
Replies: 22
Views: 1980

Re: Probably a very simple investing principle but....

Sandtrap, if I knew for sure I would have my private jet taking me to my 3rd Vacation home. My sense is that we are out of the 2000-2012 secular bear. This bull market has run strong since March 2009, my sense is that we have a ways to go. I still see a lot of doom and gloom in the financial press ...
by nedsaid
Tue Oct 10, 2017 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oldest international mutual funds?
Replies: 16
Views: 1115

Re: Oldest international mutual funds?

Templeton Growth is pretty old. I just consulted Morningstar. Inception date was November 29, 1954, growth of $10,000 from that date would be $13,004,362. The sales load then was probably 8.75%, so you would have needed $10,959 for a $10,000 investment. Of course, back in 1954, I didn't have $10,95...