Search found 10441 matches

by nedsaid
Fri Nov 16, 2018 9:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alpha Architect: Factor Investing Fact Check: Are Value And Momentum Dead?
Replies: 27
Views: 1615

Re: Alpha Architect: Factor Investing Fact Check: Are Value And Momentum Dead?

No, the S&P 500 is not "a bet on the mega cap growth section of the market." It's just a bet on the market , period. (They muddy the waters by talking about "the S&P 500," rather than the total market index most Bogleheads probably use--but since the S&P 500 constitutes 80% of the market, there's a...
by nedsaid
Thu Nov 15, 2018 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I can't take this anymore=) I'm selling stocks and buying bonds!
Replies: 96
Views: 12622

Re: I can't take this anymore=) I'm selling stocks and buying bonds!

Hi everyone, With all the swings up and down recently I am finding that it's too much volatility for me. My portfolio has gone down by $12000 over the past few days. I know people on here say it's a blip on the radar, but when I think about what I have to go through to earn $12k ($12k = two months ...
by nedsaid
Thu Nov 15, 2018 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Momentum Distinctions
Replies: 29
Views: 1727

Re: Larry Swedroe: Momentum Distinctions

Yep. Time to take away the punch bowl. We were getting too rowdy. Thanks.
by nedsaid
Thu Nov 15, 2018 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR's Cliff Asness – The Past, The Present & Future of Quant
Replies: 10
Views: 1232

Re: AQR's Cliff Asness – The Past, The Present & Future of Quant

I do know that Cliff Asness does read posts here, how much he follows us I don't know. I had the experience of him responding to a post where I said he resembled Ron Reiner and could imagine Archie Bunker telling him to get out the chair! He did say that he loved All In the Family. I didn't mean my ...
by nedsaid
Thu Nov 15, 2018 3:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why I plan on buying a life annuity - even if it is a stupid idea
Replies: 77
Views: 5846

Re: Why I plan on buying a life annuity - even if it is a stupid idea

I actually think buying an SPIA is a good idea. Not a one size fits all solution but something that many folks should consider. There are strong points in favor and there are drawbacks. This is a case by case decision, one big factor being longevity of family members. The more likely you are to liv...
by nedsaid
Thu Nov 15, 2018 2:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Momentum Distinctions
Replies: 29
Views: 1727

Re: Larry Swedroe: Momentum Distinctions

Just don't blame other people (especially at a place like the Bogleheads) for having a somewhat natural reaction to BS. Consider looking in. Uninformed disregard of new ideas might be a "natural" reaction but it's not terribly honorable. We can aim higher, I think. Trend following is not a new idea...
by nedsaid
Thu Nov 15, 2018 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1506
Views: 213144

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

There are trade offs between expenses and improved portfolio efficiency. Random Walker: There is no "trade off." Low-cost funds (on average) beat high-cost funds: "If there's anything in the whole world of mutual funds that you can take to the bank, it's that expense ratios help you make a better d...
by nedsaid
Thu Nov 15, 2018 2:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: annuity with true COLA built in
Replies: 28
Views: 1937

Re: annuity with true COLA built in

I've been pricing Immediate annuities through the Vanguard link and it looks like can get 1 or 2 or 3 percent increases. Does anyone actually offer one with a true COLA? Maybe for a huge up front payment? Not that I could afford it... :( But it seems like anything else, give it your best guess. I'd...
by nedsaid
Thu Nov 15, 2018 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Oops! Edward Jones tops Vanguard in customer survey
Replies: 50
Views: 5104

Re: Oops! Edward Jones tops Vanguard in customer survey

Edward Jones will become your best friend for about 1% of your net worth per annum. Their Assets Under Management fees are 1.35% a year, if I remember right. That also doesn't cover the expense ratios of the underlying funds, but in Edward Jones defense are cheaper funds. But still too expensive. D...
by nedsaid
Thu Nov 15, 2018 2:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why I plan on buying a life annuity - even if it is a stupid idea
Replies: 77
Views: 5846

Re: Why I plan on buying a life annuity - even if it is a stupid idea

I actually think buying an SPIA is a good idea. Not a one size fits all solution but something that many folks should consider. There are strong points in favor and there are drawbacks. This is a case by case decision, one big factor being longevity of family members. The more likely you are to liv...
by nedsaid
Thu Nov 15, 2018 2:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Momentum Distinctions
Replies: 29
Views: 1727

Re: Larry Swedroe: Momentum Distinctions

[OT quotation removed --moderator triceratop] Dave, I read the ETF.com column this morning and I knew you would have started this thread and I appreciate it. I also invest in QMHIX, and while I understand the takeaway (CS and TS momentum are not as distinct as previously thought), I had a hard time...
by nedsaid
Thu Nov 15, 2018 1:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why I plan on buying a life annuity - even if it is a stupid idea
Replies: 77
Views: 5846

Re: Why I plan on buying a life annuity - even if it is a stupid idea

I actually think buying an SPIA is a good idea. Not a one size fits all solution but something that many folks should consider. There are strong points in favor and there are drawbacks. This is a case by case decision, one big factor being longevity of family members. The more likely you are to live...
by nedsaid
Wed Nov 14, 2018 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Oops! Edward Jones tops Vanguard in customer survey
Replies: 50
Views: 5104

Re: Oops! Edward Jones tops Vanguard in customer survey

Edward Jones will become your best friend for about 1% of your net worth per annum. Their Assets Under Management fees are 1.35% a year, if I remember right. That also doesn't cover the expense ratios of the underlying funds, but in Edward Jones defense are cheaper funds. But still too expensive.
by nedsaid
Tue Nov 13, 2018 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR's Cliff Asness – The Past, The Present & Future of Quant
Replies: 10
Views: 1232

Re: AQR's Cliff Asness – The Past, The Present & Future of Quant

Love him or hate him, Cliff and his firm, AQR, are doing their best to make the markets efficient. When I get time, I will listen in. Always a good interview.
by nedsaid
Tue Nov 13, 2018 11:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How high can House prices go
Replies: 43
Views: 5159

Re: How high can House prices go

In my metropolitan area, there are signs that residential real estate is cooling off. Rents actually decreased here a bit this year. Still a good Real Estate market here, just not red hot.
by nedsaid
Tue Nov 13, 2018 8:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dimensional Funds
Replies: 18
Views: 1524

Re: Dimensional Funds

There is a thread out there discussing new Vanguard factor funds. There are good ETFs out there that capture factors as well. Lots of competition out there and that is a very good thing. Also, the Assets Under Management fees that advisors charge is another hurdle to overcome. You don't need Dimensi...
by nedsaid
Mon Nov 12, 2018 7:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should we drop our manager, for 4-fund portfolio?
Replies: 49
Views: 4162

Re: Should we drop our manager, for 4-fund portfolio?

I would say that 0.375% is a reasonable fee to pay for portfolio management. Having been a mostly do-it-yourself investor my entire investing career, I am actually considering turning over the keys and having someone else manage for me. There are issues of such things as cognitive decline and leavi...
by nedsaid
Mon Nov 12, 2018 4:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Small Value Still A Winner?
Replies: 96
Views: 6936

Re: Is Small Value Still A Winner?

Diversifying across Value and Growth, Small and Large should give you a less volatile portfolio. You can't get this with a Total Market Index, you need to tilt to get factor diversification. Ned, While I am a tilter myself, at least over the range of dates for which I have convenient access to data...
by nedsaid
Mon Nov 12, 2018 4:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversification Regret
Replies: 114
Views: 13110

Re: Diversification Regret

I never bought in the argument that TSM is not diversified enough because it doesn't account for factor diversification. Factors are really artificial academic constructs, which is cool research, but it's just research, where new refined theories emerge every now and then, leading to an increasing ...
by nedsaid
Mon Nov 12, 2018 4:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Small Value Still A Winner?
Replies: 96
Views: 6936

Re: Is Small Value Still A Winner?

Not surprising as we have been in a Large Cap Growth market for a decade now. Tilting would not have helped whether you made a lump sum investment in 2008 or if you dollar-cost-averaged your investment into the markets over that decade. A Total Market Index during the last decade would have beaten ...
by nedsaid
Mon Nov 12, 2018 4:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Small Value Still A Winner?
Replies: 96
Views: 6936

Re: Is Small Value Still A Winner?

Not surprising as we have been in a Large Cap Growth market for a decade now. Tilting would not have helped whether you made a lump sum investment in 2008 or if you dollar-cost-averaged your investment into the markets over that decade. A Total Market Index during the last decade would have beaten ...
by nedsaid
Mon Nov 12, 2018 4:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Small Value Still A Winner?
Replies: 96
Views: 6936

Re: Is Small Value Still A Winner?

The problem is that Small Value is just 2% of the US Total Stock Market, if you also consider Mid Value, then you are up to 8%. Something in me just doesn't want to cram all my equity investment into 2% of the market. I don't think you are advocating this, but you raise an important question. How m...
by nedsaid
Mon Nov 12, 2018 4:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Small Value Still A Winner?
Replies: 96
Views: 6936

Re: Is Small Value Still A Winner?

If you don't go overboard, what is the point? If you get 3% out performance on 10% of your portfolio, it really doesn't move the needle much. Seems like if you believe in SV going 30% or so is the only way to go. And yes now is probably a better time to to SV when we have had a decade or so where t...
by nedsaid
Mon Nov 12, 2018 4:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Small Value Still A Winner?
Replies: 96
Views: 6936

Re: Is Small Value Still A Winner?

Diversifying across Value and Growth, Small and Large should give you a less volatile portfolio. You can't get this with a Total Market Index, you need to tilt to get factor diversification. Ned, While I am a tilter myself, at least over the range of dates for which I have convenient access to data...
by nedsaid
Mon Nov 12, 2018 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Small Value Still A Winner?
Replies: 96
Views: 6936

Re: Is Small Value Still A Winner?

needsaid, Since you mentioned his name can you help me with this idea for my 22 year old son that puts $5500 into a Roth IRA each year. What about the Paul Merriman idea of the 2 fund Target Dated Fund with svc fund for a young person starting to invest. Does this make sense. 90% TDF 10% scv 80% TD...
by nedsaid
Mon Nov 12, 2018 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should we drop our manager, for 4-fund portfolio?
Replies: 49
Views: 4162

Re: Should we drop our manager, for 4-fund portfolio?

I would say that 0.375% is a reasonable fee to pay for portfolio management. Having been a mostly do-it-yourself investor my entire investing career, I am actually considering turning over the keys and having someone else manage for me. There are issues of such things as cognitive decline and leavin...
by nedsaid
Mon Nov 12, 2018 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR fund family's performance relative to its benchmarks
Replies: 36
Views: 2679

Re: AQR fund family's performance relative to its benchmarks

Nisiprius, you have raised good points here. From the threads, we are told to expect equity like returns from Alternatives but they are benchmarked against Treasury Bills. There are arguments that such funds are their own benchmarks. They are too transparent or not transparent enough. The reality is...
by nedsaid
Mon Nov 12, 2018 2:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7839
Views: 1609035

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

The buzzword today is "stagflation"...just google it today and hit news - multiple articles talking about the potential for stagflation. With GDP high and inflation around 2%? I believe a return to 1970's stagflation to be possible but unlikely. I suppose my portfolio is designed to battle inflatio...
by nedsaid
Mon Nov 12, 2018 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Small Value Still A Winner?
Replies: 96
Views: 6936

Re: Is Small Value Still A Winner?

Nedsaid, Agree. Got to admit though, that quality/profitability sort of gives me the heebie jeebies. It seems to push everything in a growthy direction, which then makes me wonder why I’m tilting at all. In fact Larry has said that one positive additional side effect of quality/profitability screen...
by nedsaid
Mon Nov 12, 2018 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Small Value Still A Winner?
Replies: 96
Views: 6936

Re: Is Small Value Still A Winner?

Furthermore, it seems logical to not only diversify across asset classes but also across factors. In the old days, we used to call them investment styles. You can't help but notice that Growth and Value take turns outperforming each other. Ditto with Large and Small. Same with US and International....
by nedsaid
Mon Nov 12, 2018 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7839
Views: 1609035

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

OPEC's today decision to cut 1 million barrels a day is making the market nervous. TravelforFun You are probably right. Thing is, the markets were worried about oil prices being too high. Then they were worried that they might be too low. Now they seem to be worried about high oil prices. Sort of w...
by nedsaid
Mon Nov 12, 2018 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7839
Views: 1609035

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Wow, stocks are down significantly today. Any idea what 'big news' is causing this? You never know for certain. It could be hedge funds unwinding heaven knows what. It could be markets still trying to adjust to somewhat higher interest rates and inflation. Could be anticipation of an economic slowd...
by nedsaid
Mon Nov 12, 2018 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7839
Views: 1609035

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Wow, stocks are down significantly today. Any idea what 'big news' is causing this? You never know for certain. It could be hedge funds unwinding heaven knows what. It could be markets still trying to adjust to somewhat higher interest rates and inflation. Could be anticipation of an economic slowd...
by nedsaid
Mon Nov 12, 2018 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Thwarting Financial Abuse
Replies: 2
Views: 620

Re: Larry Swedroe: Thwarting Financial Abuse

This is an excellent article. I have whittled myself down to three providers for investments. I am thinking about annuitizing a portion of my nest egg upon retirement and I am considering using advisory services or Target Risk funds for portfolio management. As far as my parents, they are still livi...
by nedsaid
Mon Nov 12, 2018 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversification Regret
Replies: 114
Views: 13110

Re: Diversification Regret

I did look at the Bogleheads Guide to Investing. There was the discussion of whether it was necessary to invest Internationally or not but there was a table showing the performance of US and International stocks year by year that made a strong case for International diversification. There was discus...
by nedsaid
Mon Nov 12, 2018 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7839
Views: 1609035

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Wow, stocks are down significantly today. Any idea what 'big news' is causing this? You never know for certain. It could be hedge funds unwinding heaven knows what. It could be markets still trying to adjust to somewhat higher interest rates and inflation. Could be anticipation of an economic slowd...
by nedsaid
Sun Nov 11, 2018 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A reminder: Stay away from AQR
Replies: 171
Views: 12531

Re: A reminder: Stay away from AQR

LTCM was open to the "public," became massively successful, forced everyone to take their money back, and then imploded. Renaissance Technologies was open and then threw everyone out and now manages their own money. I think the real reason is capacity constraints and excess headaches. Asness is qui...
by nedsaid
Sun Nov 11, 2018 11:21 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Armistice Day - 100 years ago today, the ending of World War One
Replies: 10
Views: 741

Re: Armistice Day - 100 years ago today, the ending of World War One

As a boy and as a young man, I do remember World War I veterans. They were getting to be fewer and fewer and now at age 59 am seeing the same with the World War II veterans. I actually knew a lot of WWII veterans personally and it is hard to see that generation pass. I am eternally grateful to all t...
by nedsaid
Sat Nov 10, 2018 6:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1506
Views: 213144

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

Nisiprius, Here’s a good response. Not my own, it’s an example from Larry Swedroe. He like Matjen above, thinks a 60/40 portfolio is a reasonable yardstick. The rationale is should compare investments with similar volatilities. QSPIX has an expected volatility of about 10. Stocks have vol about 20%...
by nedsaid
Sat Nov 10, 2018 12:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A reminder: Stay away from AQR
Replies: 171
Views: 12531

Re: A reminder: Stay away from AQR

My nervousness about hedge fund like investments is that I find long only investing to be risky enough. I have done different things. Invested in Earnings and Price Momentum funds, invested in Value funds, invested in funds that "index optimize", picked individual stocks, done Small/Value tilting, ...
by nedsaid
Sat Nov 10, 2018 1:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A reminder: Stay away from AQR
Replies: 171
Views: 12531

Re: A reminder: Stay away from AQR

My nervousness about hedge fund like investments is that I find long only investing to be risky enough. I have done different things. Invested in Earnings and Price Momentum funds, invested in Value funds, invested in funds that "index optimize", picked individual stocks, done Small/Value tilting, ...
by nedsaid
Sat Nov 10, 2018 1:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A reminder: Stay away from AQR
Replies: 171
Views: 12531

Re: 5-year records

But again, the 5 year record (QSPIX 5.05% ) looks pretty good. Nedsaid: You should love the 5 year record of Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund (VTSMX 11.32% ). Best wishes. Taylor Well, Taylor, I have been joking (not by too much) that we have gone from 5 funds to 1 fund. Seeing that US Large ...
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 09, 2018 7:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A reminder: Stay away from AQR
Replies: 171
Views: 12531

Re: A reminder: Stay away from AQR

Today’s returns at least provide some food for diversification thought: S&P500 -0.92% Russell 2K -1.82% QSPIX +0.84% QRPRX +0.53% DFA Global 5 year Fixed Income +0.09% Dave Of course, one day doesn't tell you much but this is what you hope that an Alternative Fund using leverage and shorts would do...
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 09, 2018 7:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1506
Views: 213144

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

QSPIX has been up nicely in the last couple of days. I wonder if it will finally do what it is supposed to do? Yes, I know two days doesn't mean much of anything, but it's still nice to see after all these years of waiting. I'm not sure what you expect but the fund has matched a globally diversifie...
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 09, 2018 6:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you prefer etfs or mutual funds?
Replies: 52
Views: 4675

Re: Do you prefer etfs or mutual funds?

I invest in both though the bulk of my investments are in mutual funds. Recently, I did a rollover of a couple of workplace savings plans at Fidelity to a rollover IRA also at Fidelity. I purchased low cost ETFs for asset classes where I was dissatisfied with my mutual fund choices. I bought an iSha...
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 09, 2018 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 356
Views: 39265

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

rudeboy wrote:
Fri Nov 09, 2018 12:52 pm
H-Town wrote:
Fri Nov 09, 2018 11:50 am
No one here?

U.S. stocks in free fall thread will welcome ya'll back with open arms.
My IPS tells me to diversify 50/50 between the freefall and soar threads. :D
Yep, I find myself doing the same thing. By the way, the US Stock Market is down today.
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 09, 2018 2:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A reminder: Stay away from AQR
Replies: 171
Views: 12531

Re: A reminder: Stay away from AQR

One other potential concern is the daily liquidity requirement of retail mutual funds doing hedge fund like investing. As a fund manager, the last thing you want to deal with is panic selling in a crisis by your investors. It would seem to me that both manager and investor would benefit from an inte...
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 09, 2018 1:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A reminder: Stay away from AQR
Replies: 171
Views: 12531

Re: A reminder: Stay away from AQR

My nervousness about hedge fund like investments is that I find long only investing to be risky enough. I have done different things. Invested in Earnings and Price Momentum funds, invested in Value funds, invested in funds that "index optimize", picked individual stocks, done Small/Value tilting, a...
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 09, 2018 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A reminder: Stay away from AQR
Replies: 171
Views: 12531

Re: A reminder: Stay away from AQR

AQR has some truly awfully designed products. Go down the list. https://funds.aqr.com/total-returns They pretty much all underperform their benchmarks. AQR specializes in the "classic" hedge fund strategies of yesterday. They literally make it a point to not innovate for the sake of making some sor...
by nedsaid
Thu Nov 08, 2018 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Go it alone or stay with wealth management?
Replies: 10
Views: 1288

Re: Go it alone or stay with wealth management?

Consider Vanguard's Personal Advisor Services as an intermediate or even long-term alternative. Their fee of .3% of assets under management for the first $5M (less for sums above that break point) is relatively modest. There is no charge for an initial consultation with a PAS rep to learn more abou...