Search found 11092 matches

by nedsaid
Wed Apr 24, 2019 3:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "S&P 500 Index closes at record high"
Replies: 101
Views: 6675

Re: "S&P 500 Index closes at record high"

Bogleheads: I started investing in 1950. The S&P 500 stocks were about 25 . Today the S&P 500 index closed at 2933 (not including dividends). If I had simply purchased the index stocks. and stayed-the-course , I would be much wealthier today. Experience is a very good teacher. Best wishes. Taylor T...
by nedsaid
Wed Apr 24, 2019 3:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Dump international?
Replies: 84
Views: 2725

Re: Dump international?

Just dump everything. The US Bond Index returned 0.1% in 2018. Don't need no stinking bonds. International stocks have trailed US Stocks for a decade. Don't need no stinking International. Much of the gain in the S&P 500 and the US Total Stock Market Index has been in the FAANG stocks (Facebook, App...
by nedsaid
Wed Apr 24, 2019 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Growth Index No Longer Diversified?
Replies: 3
Views: 312

Re: Vanguard Growth Index No Longer Diversified?

Well. Let's take a look at the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index. Microsoft is 3.17%, Apple 2.82%, Amazon 2.60, and Alphabet at 2.45%. These four stocks are 11.04% of the Index. How diversified is that? Better diversified than the Growth Index. The top 100 stocks are a bit more than 50% of the Total...
by nedsaid
Wed Apr 24, 2019 9:17 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What, if anything, do I owe this guy?
Replies: 74
Views: 6054

Re: What, if anything, do I owe this guy?

A two percent Assets Under Management Fee is excessive. Charging that fee on your home equity and upon stored gold just seems fishy to me. You got an hour and a half sales pitch, you have no obligation to him.
by nedsaid
Tue Apr 23, 2019 10:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Variance Risk Premium Evidence
Replies: 64
Views: 2274

Re: Larry Swedroe: Variance Risk Premium Evidence

Dave, you are certainly all-in not only with Buckingham but also with the Alts. I do have to admit that the Alts you have are very interesting investments. I have thought about these for a while now.
by nedsaid
Tue Apr 23, 2019 4:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fire my financial advisor now or later? (recent windfall help needed)
Replies: 48
Views: 3990

Re: Fire my financial advisor now or later? (recent windfall help needed)

Ok Bogleheads, you've convinced me. What's the easiest way to have Vanguard request the funds and transfer them? Right now they are in a money market account at ML. I also have a Roth IRA there, is that easy/hard to transfer? Tax implications on the gains? Leave it? I guess it makes sense to just p...
by nedsaid
Tue Apr 23, 2019 4:33 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review Request
Replies: 10
Views: 947

Re: Portfolio Review Request

Really appreciate the comments nedsaid, gives me something to consider. I do think I should start moving towards the conservative side, my investments were tiny in 2008 compared to today. I also just like the idea of having a shorter term goal like paying off the house to help keep me focused and m...
by nedsaid
Tue Apr 23, 2019 4:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Variance Risk Premium Evidence
Replies: 64
Views: 2274

Re: Larry Swedroe: Variance Risk Premium Evidence

Pretty much the good folks at Buckingham have all the quantitative tools to measure and evaluate all of this. Not picking on Dave's portfolio, or you, or Buckingham, but I'd never trust the inputs, models, and tools the "good folks" have mean that it's all good and fine. If you use an advisory serv...
by nedsaid
Tue Apr 23, 2019 4:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: New Three Fund Portfolio options for Fidelity Personal Retirement Annuities
Replies: 12
Views: 1130

Re: New Three Fund Portfolio options for Fidelity Personal Retirement Annuities

Update, I did roll my Variable Annuity from another provider to Fidelity and I am using the 3 fund portfolio. The annuity costs went down from 0.90% to 0.25% and the expense ratios imbedded in the funds were lower too.
by nedsaid
Tue Apr 23, 2019 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Variance Risk Premium Evidence
Replies: 64
Views: 2274

Re: Larry Swedroe: Variance Risk Premium Evidence

Not exactly sure where to start with a reply / defense of my portfolio. :-). Dave, you have to build your portfolio to please YOU and not anonymous avatars on the internet. Probably your advisor has outlined for you the rationale for the heavy weights for the Style Premia Fund and Small-Cap Value. ...
by nedsaid
Tue Apr 23, 2019 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is diversification the point of factor investing?
Replies: 38
Views: 1880

Re: Is diversification the point of factor investing?

My expectation is that after expenses, a tilted portfolio should outperform a simple 3 fund portfolio by 0.50% to 1.00% a year. I will take the 0.50%. Problem is, artificial intelligence and many very smart people trying to capture the excess returns from the factors may cause the factors to go awa...
by nedsaid
Tue Apr 23, 2019 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 678
Views: 76506

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

... Loved it when the "stocks in freefall" thread would pop up and the markets reacted with a rally. This thread is the worst possible news. Oh man! Now you have done it, this thread might just end the 9 1/2 year bull market. Darn it anyway! :annoyed Nothing to worry about, the freefall thread will...
by nedsaid
Mon Apr 22, 2019 9:55 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review Request
Replies: 10
Views: 947

Re: Portfolio Review Request

Hi all, New and aspiring Boglehead here, I have a few questions below and would really appreciate your feedback and advice. Nedsaid: First of all, welcome to the forum. You are doing well and are doing things right. Congratulations. Take my comments as fine tuning and not as criticism. I have compl...
by nedsaid
Mon Apr 22, 2019 9:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Variance Risk Premium Evidence
Replies: 64
Views: 2274

Re: Larry Swedroe: Variance Risk Premium Evidence

Dave: Thank you for sharing your portfolio. I am looking forward to reading your replies. Best wishes. Taylor Well Taylor, I don't have to wait with baited breath wondering what is in your portfolio. As I recall you are down to Total Stock Market, Total Bond Market, and SPIAs. The majesty of simpli...
by nedsaid
Mon Apr 22, 2019 9:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Variance Risk Premium Evidence
Replies: 64
Views: 2274

Re: Larry Swedroe: Variance Risk Premium Evidence

A couple of comments. I can see the Stone Ridge Variance Risk Premium product is a pretty sophisticated product. For an investor, it should be as easy as collecting the spread between premiums and the payouts in the role of providing portfolio insurance knowing that from time to time the markets wil...
by nedsaid
Mon Apr 22, 2019 2:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Variable annuity
Replies: 8
Views: 944

Re: Variable annuity

What you were attempting to do 10 years ago was to buy yourself a pension. I have looked at a number of these type of variable annuities and found the fees to be high and the potential benefits to be pretty marginal. Pretty much you were able to grow the base from which you can draw 5% a year until ...
by nedsaid
Mon Apr 22, 2019 1:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [2018 tax return - How does it compare to previous years?]
Replies: 436
Views: 29699

Re: How did you feel about your 2018 tax returns?

As a small business owner, my taxes went down substantially. I was happy, happy, happy. :D Well, don't think your State and Local Governments didn't notice. As they say, life, liberty, and property are all in jeopardy every time the legislature is in session. Small business taxes might be on their ...
by nedsaid
Mon Apr 22, 2019 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Variance Risk Premium Evidence
Replies: 64
Views: 2274

Re: Larry Swedroe: Variance Risk Premium Evidence

Variance Risk Premium is essentially selling portfolio insurance and collecting the difference between the payouts and the premiums. Similar approach that Stone Ridge takes with Re-Insurance. Essentially, you as the shareholder and Stone Ridge act as an insurance company insuring portfolios and acco...
by nedsaid
Mon Apr 22, 2019 1:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alpha Architect: Momentum Factor Investing In Russia
Replies: 4
Views: 494

Re: Alpha Architect: Momentum Factor Investing In Russia

I think Garland, you are right to be skeptical about research and your comments about medical research was interesting though not surprising. Bias is a hard thing to overcome, particularly when money and careers are at stake. It is frustrating. You try to be conscientious as an investor and it seems...
by nedsaid
Mon Apr 22, 2019 11:01 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: The urge to go back to stockpicking [Malaysia]
Replies: 25
Views: 1477

Re: The urge to go back to stockpicking

I moved all my portfolio to sp500 and local bond. Recently I found that those stocks which I handpicked were up 50% to 100% if only I hold a little longer. Nedsaid: The dreaded Nedsaid Effect strikes again. That is why I hate to sell anything because this so often happens. Still, over very long per...
by nedsaid
Mon Apr 22, 2019 10:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Pension Plans & Consultants
Replies: 5
Views: 990

Re: Larry Swedroe: Pension Plans & Consultants

Absurd as it sounds, pension funds have reasons to hire these consultants even when they realize the advice is useless. Using a consultant, particularly a large and well-known one, relieves the fund of some liability. If the investments go sour and the fund did not use a consultant, then the fund f...
by nedsaid
Mon Apr 22, 2019 10:50 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thinking about selling stocks near all time highs
Replies: 98
Views: 9050

Re: Thinking about selling stocks near all time highs

I am thinking about selling some stock ETFs after one of the strongest gains in the stock market since christmas 2018. I know that this slope that we're on cannot continue and has never historically continued at this rate, so a correction is inevitable. We're on pace for nearly a 60% return for the...
by nedsaid
Mon Apr 22, 2019 10:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is diversification the point of factor investing?
Replies: 38
Views: 1880

Re: Is diversification the point of factor investing?

My expectation is that after expenses, a tilted portfolio should outperform a simple 3 fund portfolio by 0.50% to 1.00% a year. I will take the 0.50%. Problem is, artificial intelligence and many very smart people trying to capture the excess returns from the factors may cause the factors to go awa...
by nedsaid
Sun Apr 21, 2019 5:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Pension Plans & Consultants
Replies: 5
Views: 990

Re: Larry Swedroe: Pension Plans & Consultants

Two comments. First of all, I think of the satirist Mark Russell and his comment that "mommas don't let your babies become consultants." Russell was thinking of political consultants and not pension fund consultants, but the snarky wisdom still holds. I think corporate America in general spends too ...
by nedsaid
Sun Apr 21, 2019 5:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alpha Architect: Momentum Factor Investing In Russia
Replies: 4
Views: 494

Re: Alpha Architect: Momentum Factor Investing In Russia

This is a good piece of evidence that factors are driven by human nature. Since human nature and human behavior doesn't change over time, I would expect factors to persist. I would not invest in the Russian Stock Market though.
by nedsaid
Sun Apr 21, 2019 5:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Feedback on Retirement Asset Allocation
Replies: 4
Views: 589

Re: Feedback on Retirement Asset Allocation

My wife and I will have been retired for 4 years in July. We knew nothing about investments so we worked with a private advisor who was terrific and helped us to double our assets before we retired. We moved retirement assets and 401K assets to Vanguard based on her advice. We moved far away from o...
by nedsaid
Sun Apr 21, 2019 4:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: FNILX (Fidelity ZERO Large Cap Index Fund) vs FXAIX (Fidelity 500 Index Fund)?
Replies: 6
Views: 1126

Re: FNILX (Fidelity ZERO Large Cap Index Fund) vs FXAIX (Fidelity 500 Index Fund)?

The Fidelity Zero funds are perfectly good investments, in my view they have a few disadvantages compared to their low fee index funds but the "disadvantages" are so minor that they are hardly worth worrying about. Any tracking error with similar low fee Fidelity index funds or those at Vanguard wou...
by nedsaid
Sun Apr 21, 2019 3:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why diversification is not a viable strategy?
Replies: 252
Views: 13139

Re: Why diversification is not a viable strategy?

I thank you for your attempt to provide a logical answer, when it obviously does not exist. If it's just a "custom" then there is no logic, which is fine. It has no definitive answer in any sense, not just in some nebulous sense that I am looking for, personally, which is clear from your numerous r...
by nedsaid
Sun Apr 21, 2019 3:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is diversification the point of factor investing?
Replies: 38
Views: 1880

Re: Is diversification the point of factor investing?

Is diversification the point of factor investing? It depends on how you define "diversification". To some people, it means having as many different things as possible. These people tend to be 3 funders. To other people, it means having things that predictably do not act like like one another. These...
by nedsaid
Sun Apr 21, 2019 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Q1 2019 ‘Sure Things’ Review
Replies: 3
Views: 675

Re: Larry Swedroe: Q1 2019 ‘Sure Things’ Review

I was sure that US Large Value was due any day now and have been beating the drums for it for 3-4 years now. The markets have not cooperated as we are still in a US Large Growth market, Large Value continues to trail the S&P 500 and trail the US Growth Index even more. So much for sure things. This...
by nedsaid
Sun Apr 21, 2019 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: stocks as inflation hedge - 70's and early 80's??
Replies: 7
Views: 624

Re: stocks as inflation hedge - 70's and early 80's??

Inflation spikes are bad for stocks just as they are bad for bonds. You have hit on a very important point, we like to say that stocks are a great inflation hedge, true long term but not so true over shorter time periods. Stagflation, slow economic growth coupled with higher inflation was a one-two ...
by nedsaid
Sun Apr 21, 2019 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle and Trusting the Process
Replies: 3
Views: 844

Re: Jack Bogle and Trusting the Process

He also trusted in the relentless rules of arithmetic. Costs compound over time just as returns do.
by nedsaid
Sun Apr 21, 2019 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Q1 2019 ‘Sure Things’ Review
Replies: 3
Views: 675

Re: Larry Swedroe: Q1 2019 ‘Sure Things’ Review

I was sure that US Large Value was due any day now and have been beating the drums for it for 3-4 years now. The markets have not cooperated as we are still in a US Large Growth market, Large Value continues to trail the S&P 500 and trail the US Growth Index even more. So much for sure things. This ...
by nedsaid
Sun Apr 21, 2019 11:16 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Investing for siblings
Replies: 21
Views: 1493

Re: Investing for siblings

The rule of thumb I would use in investing money for others is that I would use simpler and more conservative portfolios than I would for myself.
by nedsaid
Sun Apr 21, 2019 10:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why diversification is not a viable strategy?
Replies: 252
Views: 13139

Re: Why diversification is not a viable strategy?

Folks, There have been many threads about the US Stock market is overvalued and so on. And, most asset classes are overvalued. I had proposed a simple answer: diversification. So, I would like folks to explain why that is not a viable option. Q) The US stock market is overvalued and the US economy ...
by nedsaid
Sun Apr 21, 2019 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Efficient Markets Indeed
Replies: 48
Views: 3682

Re: Efficient Markets Indeed

Are you willing to tell us your understanding of the term efficient markets ? PJW Was just being sarcastic with the title. But I'd venture to say that the price of a stock going up hundreds of times because it gets confused with a different company doesn't seem very efficient! This example you gave...
by nedsaid
Sat Apr 20, 2019 11:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: American Funds vs Vanguard
Replies: 69
Views: 4066

Re: American Funds vs Vanguard

TristanKing, your first post was excellent. I too am a fan of American Funds. Brokers loved them because they performed well and will never embarrass you with bad performance. They are well managed funds. I own Capital Income Builder and Bond Fund of America, and yes I paid the loads on them. I also...
by nedsaid
Sat Apr 20, 2019 10:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jason Zweig WSJ: You, Dear Investor,Are Patient, Prudent And Calm
Replies: 22
Views: 3148

Re: Jason Zweig WSJ: You, Dear Investor,Are Patient, Prudent And Calm

I have felt for a long time that the "smart money", the institutional investors, do some pretty dumb things. I think of the programmed trading and the portfolio insurance of the 1980's that were supposed to protect from excessive volatility and instead exacerbated it. The crash of October 1987 was m...
by nedsaid
Sat Apr 20, 2019 12:52 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Boglehead Philosophy - High Yield Dividend Funds
Replies: 22
Views: 2358

Re: Boglehead Philosophy - High Yield Dividend Funds

You are new and have not participated in the "dividend wars" on this thread. Do some searching on the forum and you will find threads on dividend investing. What I will say is that investing in the broad indexes is plenty well good enough for individual investors. Plus dividend strategies are popula...
by nedsaid
Sat Apr 20, 2019 12:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Efficient Markets Indeed
Replies: 48
Views: 3682

Re: Efficient Markets Indeed

Are you willing to tell us your understanding of the term efficient markets ? PJW Was just being sarcastic with the title. But I'd venture to say that the price of a stock going up hundreds of times because it gets confused with a different company doesn't seem very efficient! This example you gave...
by nedsaid
Fri Apr 19, 2019 11:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thinking about selling stocks near all time highs
Replies: 98
Views: 9050

Re: Thinking about selling stocks near all time highs

I am thinking about selling some stock ETFs after one of the strongest gains in the stock market since christmas 2018. I know that this slope that we're on cannot continue and has never historically continued at this rate, so a correction is inevitable. We're on pace for nearly a 60% return for the...
by nedsaid
Fri Apr 19, 2019 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Do You Like My New 'Doo
Replies: 180
Views: 37473

Re: How Do You Like My New 'Doo

I thought I would do an update on Larry's article "Taking on the Lies of Active." The article was dated July 1st 2013. He compared American Century's 10 year performance to DFA and Vanguard. He used 10 year data as of May 2013. I will use 15 year data as of 4-19-2019 and see what has changed. Below ...
by nedsaid
Fri Apr 19, 2019 4:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: exposing the lies about active management
Replies: 13
Views: 4106

Re: exposing the lies about active management

I thought I would do an update on Larry's article. He compared American Century's 10 year performance to DFA and Vanguard. He used 10 year data as of May 2013. I will use 15 year data as of 4-19-2019 and see what has changed. US Large American Century All Cap Growth TWGTX 10.8 (10 year 5/13) 11.10 (...
by nedsaid
Fri Apr 19, 2019 4:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is the disaster scenario for stocks a reason not to invest or pull out of the market?
Replies: 94
Views: 6875

Re: Is the disaster scenario for stocks a reason not to invest or pull out of the market?

If the disaster scenario for investing in stocks they drop 50% the day after you invest and don't recover for 3-5 years is that really a reason to be going to cash or avoid putting new money into equities? Or do people have an even more dire scenario in mind? Sounds to me like you need to revisit y...
by nedsaid
Fri Apr 19, 2019 4:16 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is the disaster scenario for stocks a reason not to invest or pull out of the market?
Replies: 94
Views: 6875

Re: Is the disaster scenario for stocks a reason not to invest or pull out of the market?

If the disaster scenario for investing in stocks they drop 50% the day after you invest and don't recover for 3-5 years is that really a reason to be going to cash or avoid putting new money into equities? Or do people have an even more dire scenario in mind? Sounds to me like you need to revisit y...
by nedsaid
Fri Apr 19, 2019 3:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: The Factors That Plague Factor Investing
Replies: 44
Views: 3036

Re: Larry Swedroe: The Factors That Plague Factor Investing

Larry's analysis comparing Vanguard Indexes to DFA Funds implies that investors can capture these premiums: Size factor: 1.10% for Small US Stocks, 2% for US Micro-Caps, 4.1% for International Developed Markets, and 4.0% for Emerging Markets. Value factor: 0.6% for Large US Stocks, 0.8% for Small US...
by nedsaid
Fri Apr 19, 2019 3:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fire my financial advisor now or later? (recent windfall help needed)
Replies: 48
Views: 3990

Re: Fire my financial advisor now or later? (recent windfall help needed)

Hello Bogleheads, This is my first post. I'm new to investing and thankful to live in an age where great ideas can be shared freely on the internet. Nedsaid: Welcome to the forum and thank you for posting. Real life situations posted by people seeking advice are a big part of what makes the forum i...
by nedsaid
Fri Apr 19, 2019 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’
Replies: 215
Views: 30774

Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

The U.S. is monetarily sovereign - meaning it is a currency issuer, and the U.S. federal government, like the Japanese government, and any other country that issues its own currency, cannot go bankrupt, ever. These countries can always pay their debts. Do a google search and learn about "Modern Mon...
by nedsaid
Fri Apr 19, 2019 2:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is the disaster scenario for stocks a reason not to invest or pull out of the market?
Replies: 94
Views: 6875

Re: Is the disaster scenario for stocks a reason not to invest or pull out of the market?

If the disaster scenario for investing in stocks they drop 50% the day after you invest and don't recover for 3-5 years is that really a reason to be going to cash or avoid putting new money into equities? Or do people have an even more dire scenario in mind? Sounds to me like you need to revisit y...
by nedsaid
Fri Apr 19, 2019 2:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Do You Like My New 'Doo
Replies: 180
Views: 37473

Re: How Do You Like My New 'Doo

I have active investments too, mostly at American Century. Let's see how certain American Century funds have fared this year against the Fidelity Index Funds that I own. American Century Diversified Bond is up 2.71% vs. 2.57% for Fidelity Bond Index. This fund fell off in 2018 as it had about 7% or ...