Search found 8678 matches

by nedsaid
Fri Nov 24, 2017 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Managing Risk With Factors
Replies: 88
Views: 5252

Re: Larry Swedroe: Managing Risk With Factors

To be clear I have not left value investing. I still believe and a vast majority of my portfolio (90%+) is in invested in value stocks. However, the value factor is not value investing & conflating the two leads all types of confusion. Value investing can work due to a small number of misprcings. H...
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 24, 2017 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity Portfolio Advisory service?
Replies: 22
Views: 1154

Re: Fidelity Portfolio Advisory service?

ljr, it would be helpful if you would tell us more about your annuity. Is this held within an IRA or did you buy it with after-tax funds? Please give us the name of the issuing company and the name of the annuity. For example, (I am making up the name) New York Life Variable Retirement Accumulator Z...
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 24, 2017 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity Portfolio Advisory service?
Replies: 22
Views: 1154

Re: Fidelity Portfolio Advisory service?

Thanks I will read and watch the suggested material. It's hard to figure out where to look here--there is so much information. Nedsaid: Remember the big picture, look at your investments as a whole. Yes, there is a lot of information. Retiredjg is one of our best contributors, I have participated i...
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 24, 2017 12:41 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity Portfolio Advisory service?
Replies: 22
Views: 1154

Re: Fidelity Portfolio Advisory service?

Okay, here's what we have: $120,000 in an old 401k invested in Fidelity Freedom 2020 $170,00 in an IRA containing Fidelity International Index Premium, Artisan International Investor Class, Brown Advisory Small Cap Fundamental Value INVS, Fidelity Total Bond, Blackrock High Yield Bond Class A, Doub...
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 24, 2017 12:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Managing Risk With Factors
Replies: 88
Views: 5252

Re: Larry Swedroe: Managing Risk With Factors

I have the same understanding as Taylor. If the market efficiently prices all risk including the factor risks, then would not the market weight represent the markets best estimate of the optimal risk/reward ratio? If not, then why not? Nedsaid: Except that markets do exhibit periods of irrationalit...
by nedsaid
Thu Nov 23, 2017 7:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Job interviewing - "do you have any other interviews or leads?"
Replies: 15
Views: 1916

Re: Job interviewing - "do you have any other interviews or leads?"

The world has changed. I always have believed in being open and honest and in dealing in good faith with prospective employers. Having been through this process recently, I wonder if it is better to keep your own counsel and just act in your own best interest. In other words, maybe just look out for...
by nedsaid
Thu Nov 23, 2017 2:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Annuity or lump sum
Replies: 8
Views: 557

Re: Annuity or lump sum

Looking for some advice on what is smartest use of retirement funds. Wife works for health insurance company that has been around for a long time. When she retires at 58 she can choose an annuity that pays Approx $3,000/month with 1.5% yearly cost of living. Her lump sum payout is approximately $60...
by nedsaid
Thu Nov 23, 2017 2:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity Portfolio Advisory service?
Replies: 22
Views: 1154

Re: Fidelity Portfolio Advisory service?

My husband and I consolidated our investment accounts and IRAs at Fidelity a few years ago, meeting with an advisor there to plot out any changes, etc. Now my IRAs have grown enough that the advisor is pressing me to go into the managed Portfolio Advisory Service account. When I ask about higher fe...
by nedsaid
Thu Nov 23, 2017 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Recent Paper Swings And Misses
Replies: 12
Views: 1202

Re: Larry Swedroe: Recent Paper Swings And Misses

There is a continuum and Larry Swedroe will not admit that it exists. Well, how could there not be a continuum. Only Total Stock Market (or, for that matter, Total World Stock) can be considered totally passive. With S&P 500, you're already making a (very minor) active decision towards Large-Cap. T...
by nedsaid
Thu Nov 23, 2017 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Recent Paper Swings And Misses
Replies: 12
Views: 1202

Re: Larry Swedroe: Recent Paper Swings And Misses

Greg in Idaho wrote:
Thu Nov 23, 2017 11:42 am
So what I'm hearing is: People working in the investment industry publish work on investment strategies that just happens to support their own bottom line.

Shocking...(sarcasm aside--I do appreciate the above analyses/commentary)
I am shocked, shocked to find there is gambling going on in here.
by nedsaid
Thu Nov 23, 2017 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Managing Risk With Factors
Replies: 88
Views: 5252

Re: Larry Swedroe: Managing Risk With Factors

Nedsaid, Totally agree that investing is not physics. Human behavior really jacks finance up. But that is a large part of what makes investing so fascinating. That being said, it’s not all hopeless. People have looked at data, made hypotheses, and evaluated their hypotheses with out of sample data....
by nedsaid
Thu Nov 23, 2017 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Recent Paper Swings And Misses
Replies: 12
Views: 1202

Re: Larry Swedroe: Recent Paper Swings And Misses

Nisiprius, you have echoed what I have been saying for years. There is a continuum and Larry Swedroe will not admit that it exists. In his mind, there is passive investing and active investing. I would say that the more passive DFA approach is not quite 100% passive and has elements of active invest...
by nedsaid
Thu Nov 23, 2017 9:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Managing Risk With Factors
Replies: 88
Views: 5252

Re: Larry Swedroe: Managing Risk With Factors

My reaction to Larry's article is that there really is not a science of investing. I believe you can use certain scientific and statistical techniques to learn what works and what doesn't work. You also get keen insights as to why certain things work. While not a subjective "soft" science, the "scie...
by nedsaid
Thu Nov 23, 2017 9:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Recent Paper Swings And Misses
Replies: 12
Views: 1202

Re: Larry Swedroe: Recent Paper Swings And Misses

How can indexing cause a bubble? Indexing is pretty much buying and holding a group of stocks with very little trading. This is just as exciting as watching paint dry or tumbleweeds tumble. Trading index ETFs is another thing, this might cause a bubble in smaller segments of the market, that is ETFs...
by nedsaid
Sun Nov 19, 2017 5:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What we don't know
Replies: 42
Views: 2798

Re: What we don't know

We really don't know anything when it comes to investing,do we?Almost daily I see posts on Bogleheads that make me feel this way Which is better a CD ladder or bond fund,with interest rates this low? Which is better index funds or a low cost managed fund (Wellington,Wesley,Primecap...)? Am I saving...
by nedsaid
Sun Nov 19, 2017 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Side investment to go along with a 2050 Fund (VFIFX)
Replies: 4
Views: 268

Re: Side investment to go along with a 2050 Fund (VFIFX)

If you are maxing out your 401k plans each year, you have plenty of retirement investments. I think what I would do is retain the savings account and try to add to it. At some point, you might want to put a down payment on a house or replace a car or who knows what else.
by nedsaid
Sun Nov 19, 2017 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Personal Advisor Services/Portfolio Review
Replies: 45
Views: 3291

Re: Vanguard Personal Advisor Services/Portfolio Review

I have played around with Portfolio Visualizer trying to benchmark my own portfolio against a Taylor Larimore 3 fund portfolio. I checked the Vanguard 3 fund rebalanced yearly, monthly, and never. The greatest rebalancing bonus came with rebalancing annually, giving your winners at least a change to...
by nedsaid
Sun Nov 19, 2017 1:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar - AQR: The Vanguard of Alternative Investing?
Replies: 58
Views: 4559

Re: Morningstar - AQR: The Vanguard of Alternative Investing?

matjen wrote: What is interesting to me is that we haven't even entered an environment where these types of funds should really shine. When we do, if they perform as expected AQR will explode. If they falter and prove no/little better than beta then major trouble. 1+ I don't think there's any doubt...
by nedsaid
Sat Nov 18, 2017 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Personal Advisor Services/Portfolio Review
Replies: 45
Views: 3291

Re: Vanguard Personal Advisor Services/Portfolio Review

First time post, LONG time reader. Getting my finances in order before wife and I retire next year at 56 and are planning on using Vanguard Personal Advisor Service. (Retiring is a scary step and we personally feel more comfortable with an actual person and are OK with fee for now.) Anyways, after ...
by nedsaid
Sat Nov 18, 2017 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should we be using high equity retirement portfolios? - Some cFIREsim scenarios.
Replies: 50
Views: 4403

Re: Should we be using high equity retirement portfolios? - Some cFIREsim scenarios.

I don't know. From my experience and having known a lot of "old" people and becoming one myself, it just doesn't seem practical that people are going to maintain 100% and 90% stock allocations throughout retirement. It seems that most people I know get more risk averse as they get older.
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 17, 2017 8:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Goldman Sachs mulls the death of the value factor
Replies: 18
Views: 2050

Re: Goldman Sachs mulls the death of the value factor

I will say it again, there are always good reasons for excessive pessimism.
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 17, 2017 8:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Goldman Sachs mulls the death of the value factor
Replies: 18
Views: 2050

Re: Goldman Sachs mulls the death of the value factor

...When BusinessWeek comes out with a "Death of Value" cover, a huge rally in the Large Value stocks will be ahead. It took about 3-4 years after the infamous "Death of Equities" article for one of the greatest bull markets ever to ignite... The "Death of Equities" article is fine. It is constantly...
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 17, 2017 8:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 6185

Re: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?

So I am not telling people to run for the hills in terror. I am not telling people to sell their stocks. What I am saying is that additional caution at this point is warranted. I understand your points, I really do. I'm not saying you are wrong. The chances for a crash or future lower returns (for ...
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 17, 2017 3:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 6185

Re: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?

Yes, Homer there are more variables than P/E ratios. Market sentiment would be another factor to look at. There are also other Value metrics like Price/Book, Price/Sales, and Price/Cash Flow. P/E is the best known of the metrics and it is a good shorthand when thinking about the markets. Another var...
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 17, 2017 2:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where did you first learn about investing?
Replies: 98
Views: 4742

Re: Where did you first learn about investing?

Wall $treet Week with Louis Rukeyser.
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 17, 2017 2:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 6185

Re: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?

I just think it is foolish to say that valuations don't matter, they clearly do. None of this is exact, we can sustain high stock returns if P/E ratios keep expanding. But they won't keep expanding into infinity. At some point, there will be a reversion to the mean. At some point if this keeps us, ...
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 17, 2017 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An hour with David Swensen at Council of Foreign Relations
Replies: 16
Views: 1513

Re: An hour with David Swensen at Council of Foreign Relations

Except Swenson isn't marketing to us, he runs the Yale Endowment. He is not part of the Wall Street hype machine. That approach DRIVES the rhetoric of the machine, the belief in "fundamentals" and security analysis as a predictor of performance. The company I worked for currently trades at about $8...
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 17, 2017 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow
Replies: 192
Views: 13031

Re: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow

I've been re-reading Buffett's letters to shareholders, and as usual, he's made some observations that few others in the financial world have made. 1. He agrees that share repurchases are more tax-efficient to shareholders, given the current U.S. tax regime. 2. But he says that managers of corporat...
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 17, 2017 10:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An hour with David Swensen at Council of Foreign Relations
Replies: 16
Views: 1513

Re: An hour with David Swensen at Council of Foreign Relations

There is a transcript of the interview. Here is one of many great nuggets: "You know, I have never been a big fan of quantitative approaches to investment. And the fundamental reason is that I can’t understand what’s in the black box. And if I don’t know what’s in the black box, and there’s underpe...
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 17, 2017 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Goldman Sachs mulls the death of the value factor
Replies: 18
Views: 2050

Re: Goldman Sachs mulls the death of the value factor

Yes, we have discussed the difference between Buffett and the academics when it comes to Value. I think I will go with Buffett on this one, as he has his billions and the academics do not. We have to keep in mind that Charlie Munger taught Buffett about Quality so Buffett has modified the Benjamin G...
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 17, 2017 10:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 6185

Re: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?

Simply to note that the record of Wall Street analysts on catching turns in earnings is very poor (David Dreman did a pretty good demolition job on that). Thus, the forward PE is almost certainly wrong. Nedsaid: Yes, Wall Street analysts do tend to be overoptimistic. But earnings estimates are what...
by nedsaid
Thu Nov 16, 2017 8:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Goldman Sachs mulls the death of the value factor
Replies: 18
Views: 2050

Re: Goldman Sachs mulls the death of the value factor

An interesting article from from GS explaining the reasons why value has underperformed for a long spell: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-08/goldman-sachs-mulls-death-of-value-investing-after-losing-decade . GS believes a conjunction of macroeconomic factors and monetary policy are ...
by nedsaid
Thu Nov 16, 2017 8:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 6185

Re: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?

I just think it is foolish to say that valuations don't matter, they clearly do. None of this is exact, we can sustain high stock returns if P/E ratios keep expanding. But they won't keep expanding into infinity. At some point, there will be a reversion to the mean. At some point if this keeps us, ...
by nedsaid
Tue Nov 14, 2017 9:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 6185

Re: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?

We got the 14% growth because of P/E expansion, the speculative return that Mr. Bogle talks about. Stock prices ultimately will reflect actual economic growth and actual corporate earnings growth. Historically, corporate earnings grow probably more like 6% a year on a sustainable basis. Trees do no...
by nedsaid
Tue Nov 14, 2017 9:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Regret of selling winning stocks early
Replies: 64
Views: 8571

Re: Regret of selling winning stocks early

The buy decision is relatively easy to make, the sell decision is much more difficult. I would have thought from a trader's perspective that it would be the opposite? This year I've had two positions go up 30% in two months and I've sold them immediately. I knew there was a chance they might go up ...
by nedsaid
Tue Nov 14, 2017 9:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 6185

Re: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?

What would you say if forward P/E ratios were at 32 rather than 21 as they are today. Is there a point at which you would start listening to experts? What am I bid? One of the problems with assessing what a normalized P/E should be for an entire universe of stocks for a given country over time is t...
by nedsaid
Mon Nov 13, 2017 9:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is all the recent talk about a bond bubble?
Replies: 22
Views: 2309

Re: What is all the recent talk about a bond bubble?

I know if you buy a bond and keep it to maturity, your return is total dividend, with no possible loss (except default). I know if you have a bond fund, it is different. I know that a bond fund can be short, medium, or long term, and each has its pros and cons. So what is going on with all this cov...
by nedsaid
Mon Nov 13, 2017 9:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Regret of selling winning stocks early
Replies: 64
Views: 8571

Re: Regret of selling winning stocks early

Yes, you have suffered from the "Nedsaid effect" which occurs when the investment you sell outperforms what you bought to replace it. This seems to have happened to me at a ratio of 2:1 or even 3:1. Thus my reluctance to sell investments, heck I don't even like to rebalance my portfolio! A trader I...
by nedsaid
Mon Nov 13, 2017 8:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 6185

Re: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?

We got the 14% growth because of P/E expansion, the speculative return that Mr. Bogle talks about. Stock prices ultimately will reflect actual economic growth and actual corporate earnings growth. Historically, corporate earnings grow probably more like 6% a year on a sustainable basis. Trees do no...
by nedsaid
Sun Nov 12, 2017 8:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Am I loopy for thinking about doing this? [Change stock allocation]
Replies: 10
Views: 1403

Re: Am I loopy for thinking about doing this?

Well, you have to run the numbers. When do you plan to take Social Security? Will you have pension income? How much will you need to withdraw from your accounts when you retire to live on? How much in dollars and how much as a percentage of your portfolio? I would use conservative return numbers to ...
by nedsaid
Sun Nov 12, 2017 8:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow
Replies: 192
Views: 13031

Re: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow

Fair enough. I'd also note that where you are focusing on dividends stock buybacks have similar characteristics. That often isn't much acknowledged by those who are very focused on the positive feeling of having a dividend deposited in their account. Yes, share buybacks should be considered also. K...
by nedsaid
Sun Nov 12, 2017 8:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Makes U.S. Treasuries the World's "Safe" Asset?
Replies: 24
Views: 2489

Re: What Makes U.S. Treasuries the World's "Safe" Asset?

What is the evidence that US treasuries are safer? Not sure this would be a productive discussion. One could check the price of sovereign credit default swaps to see how global investors rate the creditworthiness of various countries' government debt around the world — the U.S. vs. Germany vs. Japa...
by nedsaid
Sun Nov 12, 2017 7:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bucket #2: Which Bond Funds Do You Recommend?
Replies: 7
Views: 1132

Re: Bucket #2: Which Bond Funds Do You Recommend?

Nick, there are a lot of opinions on this but pretty much any good investment grade, intermediate term diversified bond fund would fit the bill. The Vanguard US Total Bond Market Index would be perfectly fine. If you were really risk averse, you could use an Intermediate Term US Treasuries fund. As ...
by nedsaid
Sun Nov 12, 2017 7:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow
Replies: 192
Views: 13031

Re: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow

Hoops 777, I have brought up the very same point about Jack Bogle and his comments on dividends many times. For some reason, income from investments is important to him whether it is bond yield or dividend yield. He has recommended using a slice of the stock portion of the portfolio for higher yiel...
by nedsaid
Sun Nov 12, 2017 7:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow
Replies: 192
Views: 13031

Re: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow

Perhaps people are somehow mixing concepts having to do with individual stock investing vs. stock mutual fund investing? (As to where to reinvest dividends?) It is tempting to (have done some of both) do some of both in spite of the (highly likely?) fact that the average person will see more succes...
by nedsaid
Sun Nov 12, 2017 7:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 6185

Re: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?

According to Rob Arnott's group, Research Affiliates What did they predict in the past? Were they correct? I just did a quick google search and I'm not finding a lot of their old predictions. I did see something where Rob Arnott was part of a group that predicted a lower equity premium going forwar...
by nedsaid
Sun Nov 12, 2017 7:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow
Replies: 192
Views: 13031

Re: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow

Hoops 777, I have brought up the very same point about Jack Bogle and his comments on dividends many times. For some reason, income from investments is important to him whether it is bond yield or dividend yield. He has recommended using a slice of the stock portion of the portfolio for higher yield...
by nedsaid
Sun Nov 12, 2017 6:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow
Replies: 192
Views: 13031

Re: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow

Thanks nedsaid for taking the time to help straighten me out. I realize now I was being way too simplistic as well as fatally flawed :happy I was so stuck on the dividend I did not include the other reasons why investors would buy a dividend stock in my thinking :x You know it is kind of alarming i...
by nedsaid
Sun Nov 12, 2017 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman: The One Fund Every Investor Should Own
Replies: 122
Views: 18366

Re: Paul Merriman: The One Fund Every Investor Should Own

Mel Lindauer wrote:
Sat Nov 11, 2017 6:32 pm
Perhaps those who think small caps are a slam dunk should take a look at this thread:

viewtopic.php?p=3609736#p3609736

YMMV.
Don't forget about those mid-caps though!