Search found 9481 matches

by nedsaid
Mon Jun 18, 2018 9:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You Can Market Time At Valuation Extremes
Replies: 31
Views: 3534

Re: You Can Market Time At Valuation Extremes

thanks for the information. Don't you think Mr. Bogle should address in some detail what Bogleheads should do to determine extreme valuation and actions that should be considered? After all extreme valuation should be somewhat rare and the impact on equity assets when the "reversion to the mean" ar...
by nedsaid
Mon Jun 18, 2018 8:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Very confused with the current market
Replies: 83
Views: 7007

Re: Very confused with the current market

I remember Warren buffet once said: buy the dips and value investing. the stock market always go higher due to inflation in the long term, however, should not we buy the dips? Are those crazy tech stocks still value investing ? I am expecting the dips. Economic growth is the big driver of the stock...
by nedsaid
Mon Jun 18, 2018 8:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ex-dividend days: Is there typically anything out of the ordinary?
Replies: 4
Views: 659

Re: Ex-dividend days: Is there typically anything out of the ordinary?

You would expect the price of a stock to drop by the amount of the dividend on ex-dividend day. There are other things at play here though. Good news could boost the stock price even with the announced dividend. In any case, the price is lower than it would have been if there had been no dividend an...
by nedsaid
Mon Jun 18, 2018 8:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You Can Market Time At Valuation Extremes
Replies: 31
Views: 3534

Re: You Can Market Time At Valuation Extremes

Keep in mind that Bogle advocated strategic asset allocation only at market extremes and that he limited portfolio shifts to maybe 15% to 20% of the total portfolio. So if you were 65% in stocks when the US Market was extremely overvalued, Bogle might say cut your stocks to 50% of your portfolio or ...
by nedsaid
Mon Jun 18, 2018 8:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You Can Market Time At Valuation Extremes
Replies: 31
Views: 3534

Re: You Can Market Time At Valuation Extremes

Mr. Bogle says you can/should? He did around the 2000 meltdown. He cut back his equity allocation significantly. Around 2013 when the market was up 30% or so he reaffirmed the idea of taking action during extreme valuations -- but said at that time the equity market wasn't extremely overvalued. I d...
by nedsaid
Mon Jun 18, 2018 7:58 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Adding U.S. Growth Fund Investor Shares (VWUSX) to portfolio
Replies: 11
Views: 849

Re: Adding U.S. Growth Fund Investor Shares (VWUSX) to portfolio

Hello everyone, My current portfolio is: 40% stock and 60% bond/CD 40% stock (taxable + non-taxable) = 80% Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Admiral Shares (VTSAX) and 20% Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund Admiral Shares (VTIAX) I am planning to increase the proportion of large-cap...
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 17, 2018 11:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How indexing works--a good video for newer Bogleheads
Replies: 1
Views: 473

Re: How indexing works--a good video for newer Bogleheads

An excellent video explaining why indexing works. Thanks for posting.
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 17, 2018 7:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Our interview with Taylor Larimore
Replies: 13
Views: 2846

Re: Our interview with Taylor Larimore

Thank you Taylor for all you have done for us over the years. The interview told your story well, your progress from a complicated portfolio recommended by your broker to a simple three fund portfolio. Best luck with your newest book.
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 17, 2018 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Best Way to use Factor ETFs
Replies: 1
Views: 335

Re: The Best Way to use Factor ETFs

I don't own a multi-factor ETF, I do own Vanguard Small-Cap Value Index ETF and an ETF that reflects a Micro-Cap Index. I also own an International Mid/Small-Cap Index ETF. I have used active funds to attempt to capture Value and others to capture earnings and price momentum. I wondered if a multi-f...
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 17, 2018 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Using Wellesley Fund as a bond alternative
Replies: 18
Views: 2175

Re: Using Wellesley Fund as a bond alternative

Hey guys was getting your input on using the Wellesley fund 35:65 stock/bonds as my bond fund. Currently contribute $2500 a month to VTSAX ($30k yearly) and $250 a month to Wellesley which also houses my emergency fund of $30k so around 3k a year to that. I would be able to take the risk of a 10 pe...
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 17, 2018 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: how can i determine if Wellington only takes long stock positions?
Replies: 9
Views: 400

Re: how can i determine if Wellington only takes long stock positions?

You could call Vanguard. Wellington is the poster boy for conservative asset management, I would be shocked if they have ever shorted a stock. During the go-go era of the 1960's, my recollection is that Wellington became an aggressive growth fund, which was a disaster, and then was taken back to its...
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 17, 2018 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting video from Ramsey today [How Ramsey Outperforms The Stock Market]
Replies: 127
Views: 9658

Re: Interesting video from Ramsey today [How Ramsey Outperforms The Stock Market]

His numbers seem blatantly flawed by survivorship bias. If you include all the underperforming funds that got shut down over the years, the success rate (where success rate is defined as % of funds that beat the market) looks much worse, especially if you look at it after costs. Almost everything i...
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 17, 2018 12:13 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio review with a couple questions
Replies: 6
Views: 699

Re: Portfolio review with a couple questions

I will bump this one more time in hopes that others will comment.
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 17, 2018 12:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting video from Ramsey today [How Ramsey Outperforms The Stock Market]
Replies: 127
Views: 9658

Re: Interesting video from Ramsey today [How Ramsey Outperforms The Stock Market]

Except that the American Funds that he recommends have done quite well even after paying the loads. Once again, "When" he made the recommendation is critical. 1,Did he recommend them many,many years ago when their performance history was not great and then they became great? 2. Or, is he recommendi...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 16, 2018 9:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio review with a couple questions
Replies: 6
Views: 699

Re: Portfolio review with a couple questions

Thank you for taking the time to help/review my portfolio! This is my first post on Bogleheads, but I read this website daily and have learned so much from everyone who takes time out of their lives to help complete strangers. I have a couple of specific question to ask but if I've learned anything...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 16, 2018 9:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting video from Ramsey today [How Ramsey Outperforms The Stock Market]
Replies: 127
Views: 9658

Re: Interesting video from Ramsey today [How Ramsey Outperforms The Stock Market]

Except that the American Funds that he recommends have done quite well even after paying the loads. Certainly, indexing is hard to beat and Vanguard has cheaper and perhaps better alternatives even for active funds. Another area of disagreement is advising 100% stocks for investment accounts, way t...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 16, 2018 9:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting video from Ramsey today [How Ramsey Outperforms The Stock Market]
Replies: 127
Views: 9658

Re: Interesting video from Ramsey today [How Ramsey Outperforms The Stock Market]

He is getting a lot of people to clean up their debt and start investing. His 'show' is entertaining and uplifting. If his followers follow his advice and do active funds, most would be far better off than if they never ran into him to begin with. Except that the American Funds that he recommends h...
by nedsaid
Fri Jun 15, 2018 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor-based strategy is better (winer), OK. then who are the losers?
Replies: 55
Views: 2449

Re: Factor-based strategy is better (winer), OK. then who are the losers?

Regarding some of the above posts, there is an important point there that whatever the statistical systematics of the market, the investor gets only one of a wide range of possible outcomes. That actual outcome is determined more by noise than by any overwhelming trend in the system. The end result...
by nedsaid
Fri Jun 15, 2018 8:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review for Millenial
Replies: 26
Views: 1669

Re: Portfolio Review for Millenial

All new retirement money is going in at the proportion of 55% domestic stock, 30% international stock, and 15% bonds. I figured over time my allocations will get closer to these percentages since I’m not adding much money to those other investments I hold. Okay, that is the beginnings of an Investm...
by nedsaid
Fri Jun 15, 2018 8:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor-based strategy is better (winer), OK. then who are the losers?
Replies: 55
Views: 2449

Re: Factor-based strategy is better (winer), OK. then who are the losers?

Regarding some of the above posts, there is an important point there that whatever the statistical systematics of the market, the investor gets only one of a wide range of possible outcomes. That actual outcome is determined more by noise than by any overwhelming trend in the system. The end result...
by nedsaid
Fri Jun 15, 2018 8:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: What Makes Factors Endure
Replies: 55
Views: 3405

Re: Larry Swedroe: What Makes Factors Endure

Certainly AI will be a bigger factor in markets but I am skeptical that human emotion will be taken out. As much as I believe in ruthlessly efficient markets always getting more so, I tend to agree. Just think human emotion can’t get sucked out of the markets no matter how advanced the gizmology ge...
by nedsaid
Fri Jun 15, 2018 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review for Millenial
Replies: 26
Views: 1669

Re: Portfolio Review for Millenial

All new retirement money is going in at the proportion of 55% domestic stock, 30% international stock, and 15% bonds. I figured over time my allocations will get closer to these percentages since I’m not adding much money to those other investments I hold. Okay, that is the beginnings of an Investm...
by nedsaid
Fri Jun 15, 2018 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting video from Ramsey today [How Ramsey Outperforms The Stock Market]
Replies: 127
Views: 9658

Re: Interesting video from Ramsey today [How Ramsey Outperforms The Stock Market]

He is getting a lot of people to clean up their debt and start investing. His 'show' is entertaining and uplifting. If his followers follow his advice and do active funds, most would be far better off than if they never ran into him to begin with. Except that the American Funds that he recommends h...
by nedsaid
Fri Jun 15, 2018 8:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: What Makes Factors Endure
Replies: 55
Views: 3405

Re: Larry Swedroe: What Makes Factors Endure

I don't know, computers and algorithms seem to amplify human emotion. I doubt that AI will be any different. Somehow, greed and fear are still in fashion. I suppose someone will try baffling AI by doing seemingly really irrational trades. Do weird things in the markets to try to get AI machines to ...
by nedsaid
Thu Jun 14, 2018 11:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting video from Ramsey today [How Ramsey Outperforms The Stock Market]
Replies: 127
Views: 9658

Re: Interesting video from Ramsey today [How Ramsey Outperforms The Stock Market]

He is getting a lot of people to clean up their debt and start investing. His 'show' is entertaining and uplifting. If his followers follow his advice and do active funds, most would be far better off than if they never ran into him to begin with. Except that the American Funds that he recommends h...
by nedsaid
Thu Jun 14, 2018 11:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio review with a couple questions
Replies: 6
Views: 699

Re: Portfolio review with a couple questions

Hi Thermomaster, welcome to the forum.

I will bump your post in hopes others will comment. If no one else responds, I will make a critique. Just a cursory view but it looks like you are doing a lot of things right. Heading for bed so I might comment later.

Best wishes,

Ned
by nedsaid
Thu Jun 14, 2018 11:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: What Makes Factors Endure
Replies: 55
Views: 3405

Re: Larry Swedroe: What Makes Factors Endure

Certainly AI will be a bigger factor in markets but I am skeptical that human emotion will be taken out. As much as I believe in ruthlessly efficient markets always getting more so, I tend to agree. Just think human emotion can’t get sucked out of the markets no matter how advanced the gizmology ge...
by nedsaid
Thu Jun 14, 2018 11:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sold today, couple of questions
Replies: 11
Views: 2343

Re: Sold today, couple of questions

I bought VGSLX (Vanguard REIT admiral shares) a while back, and decided I wanted to get rid of it because it wasn't performing to my expectations. I'm going to tax loss harvest to decrease the pain, but the fund value has been increasing over the past few months so I held off. Goal was to have $100...
by nedsaid
Thu Jun 14, 2018 11:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review for Millenial
Replies: 26
Views: 1669

Re: Portfolio Review for Millenial

I would like y’all to suggest what I should be doing different and what I am doing right with my overall portfolio/ finances. Age: 28 married no kids Emergency Fund: 12k Income: 98k Annual Expenses: 36k I contribute 11k per year to 401k and 1.2k per year to Fidelity Roth. I also contribute 30k per ...
by nedsaid
Thu Jun 14, 2018 11:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor-based strategy is better (winer), OK. then who are the losers?
Replies: 55
Views: 2449

Re: Factor-based strategy is better (winer), OK. then who are the losers?

One of my basic beliefs is that all investors as a group in a market, must earn the average total return of that market before expenses. There are winners, there must be losers, so that they offset each other (zero-sum game before expense). If the Factor-based strategy is better than the traditiona...
by nedsaid
Thu Jun 14, 2018 11:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: What Makes Factors Endure
Replies: 55
Views: 3405

Re: Larry Swedroe: What Makes Factors Endure

I guess I can't really buy into the risk explanations for factor investing. Human (or human programmed computer) behavior seems like a much simpler and intuitive explanation. And as AI continues to evolve and take over pricing stocks completely, I imagine these premiums will become significantly ha...
by nedsaid
Thu Jun 14, 2018 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: What Makes Factors Endure
Replies: 55
Views: 3405

Re: Larry Swedroe: What Makes Factors Endure

Well I would say most of this is over most of our heads. Eventhough I read the books I still have a hard time understanding. So, if I own the 3 fund (which I do) I have bought into the belief that Total Market is the way to go for me. And I believe in Market Cap. Investing. So does this just tell m...
by nedsaid
Thu Jun 14, 2018 9:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: What Makes Factors Endure
Replies: 55
Views: 3405

Re: Larry Swedroe: What Makes Factors Endure

Nedsaid, I totally agree with your description of “price risk” for growth stocks. I’ve thought of it myself as “bubble risk” perhaps because I started my investing career in the late 1990s :-). There can be a lot of perfection built into growth stock prices, and when those expectations are not met,...
by nedsaid
Thu Jun 14, 2018 9:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Rising Rates Effects Unclear
Replies: 3
Views: 584

Re: Larry Swedroe: Rising Rates Effects Unclear

Those of you interested in such things as higher dividend stocks, low volatility stocks, REITs, and utilities are seeing improved valuations with rises in interest rates. Hardly surprising in the light of rising interest rates. Not doing a timing service here but those interested in such strategies ...
by nedsaid
Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You Can Market Time At Valuation Extremes
Replies: 31
Views: 3534

Re: You Can Market Time At Valuation Extremes

The problem is that what is considered "extreme" has changed over the years... Really? Humans, in seemingly all countries where records are available, seem to have demanded 5+% as real return on capital for the past 300 years. If you believe that we are not going to get that in the present environm...
by nedsaid
Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Advisor Services
Replies: 45
Views: 3141

Re: Vanguard Advisor Services

It appears the OP has learned enough simply by observing the PAS method (and surely from other sources) that he no longer needs to pay for the service. Consider it tuition. You have graduated so you no longer need to pay the tuition. Agree that it is of value, and worth .3% for some. If you need/wa...
by nedsaid
Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Forbes: Millennials Aren't Having Kids Heres Why That's a Problem for Baby Boomer Real Estate and Retirement
Replies: 74
Views: 6964

Re: Forbes: Millennials Aren't Having Kids Heres Why That's a Problem for Baby Boomer Real Estate and Retirement

What I will say from my vantage point is that the cost of housing in certain metropolitan areas is zooming and you wonder where it will stop. This makes it pretty difficult for young people trying to get established. Employers also seem to have a shorter term outlook, employment seems to be more "ju...
by nedsaid
Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: What Makes Factors Endure
Replies: 55
Views: 3405

Re: Larry Swedroe: What Makes Factors Endure

A counter argument to Larry though I think we mostly agree here. Value stocks tend to have more fundamental risk (higher leverage, more volatile earnings) but I would argue that they have less pricing risk. That is, Value stocks have lower expectations built into them than Growth stocks. We have see...
by nedsaid
Tue Jun 12, 2018 5:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Vanguard Small Cap Index really small cap?
Replies: 32
Views: 1834

Re: Is Vanguard Small Cap Index really small cap?

The tilting strategies are easier in theory than they are in practice. This is true of other investment strategies as well. One reason a lot of folks have thrown in the towel and just index. I guess I am an eternal optimist. How about an ETF? https://s22.postimg.cc/6dapb9txt/IJS_Capture.gif e/r 0.2...
by nedsaid
Tue Jun 12, 2018 5:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Vanguard Small Cap Index really small cap?
Replies: 32
Views: 1834

Re: Is Vanguard Small Cap Index really small cap?

The tilting strategies are easier in theory than they are in practice. This is true of other investment strategies as well. One reason a lot of folks have thrown in the towel and just index. I guess I am an eternal optimist. If someone is willing to use ETFs, it doesn’t seem like it would be hard. ...
by nedsaid
Tue Jun 12, 2018 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Vanguard Small Cap Index really small cap?
Replies: 32
Views: 1834

Re: Is Vanguard Small Cap Index really small cap?

The tilting strategies are easier in theory than they are in practice. This is true of other investment strategies as well. One reason a lot of folks have thrown in the towel and just index. I guess I am an eternal optimist. How about an ETF? https://s22.postimg.cc/6dapb9txt/IJS_Capture.gif e/r 0.2...
by nedsaid
Tue Jun 12, 2018 2:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting video from Ramsey today [How Ramsey Outperforms The Stock Market]
Replies: 127
Views: 9658

Re: Interesting video from Ramsey today [How Ramsey Outperforms The Stock Market]

Dave Ramsey isn't an idiot but you can tell he has been stung by critics. He was defensive in the video but does acknowledge that indexing beats most active funds. Many worse things you can do than pay the load and hold American Funds for the long term. There are alternatives out there, including we...
by nedsaid
Tue Jun 12, 2018 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Vanguard Small Cap Index really small cap?
Replies: 32
Views: 1834

Re: Is Vanguard Small Cap Index really small cap?

These type of funds are not easy too find, the ones you find have their flaws. Many have expense ratios higher than what many Bogleheads will tolerate. Yep. The tilting strategies are easier in theory than they are in practice. This is true of other investment strategies as well. One reason a lot o...
by nedsaid
Tue Jun 12, 2018 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Left Advisory Portfolio to do it myself and fear I made mess of things
Replies: 35
Views: 2620

Re: Left Advisory Portfolio to do it myself and fear I made mess of things

This is a great site that you provided: http://www.401411.com/att. ladygeek what do you mean by OP? Nedsaid: OP is Original Poster or the person who started the thread. Thanks nedsaid on your comments. Are target funds really a good idea which is what Fidelity Freedom Funds are (I will look at the ...
by nedsaid
Tue Jun 12, 2018 1:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Vanguard Small Cap Index really small cap?
Replies: 32
Views: 1834

Re: Is Vanguard Small Cap Index really small cap?

Well, sometimes close enough is close enough. Mid-Caps perform in a similar fashion to Small-Caps, tend to have a little less return with a little less volatility. Many feel that Mid-Caps are the "sweet spot" of the stock market. I would not obsess over this. Re: "the sweet spot" Not according to L...
by nedsaid
Tue Jun 12, 2018 1:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Vanguard Small Cap Index really small cap?
Replies: 32
Views: 1834

Re: Is Vanguard Small Cap Index really small cap?

Well, sometimes close enough is close enough. Mid-Caps perform in a similar fashion to Small-Caps, tend to have a little less return with a little less volatility. Many feel that Mid-Caps are the "sweet spot" of the stock market. I would not obsess over this. Although most of the benefit of small-c...
by nedsaid
Tue Jun 12, 2018 12:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I fix the car or get rid of it?
Replies: 20
Views: 1627

Re: Should I fix the car or get rid of it?

My rule of thumb is that you get rid of a car when you start having problems finding spare parts. This seems to start happening after 20 years or so. Another thing to look at is how many things are going wrong at once. When I saw issues, I mean other than routine maintenance, things like brakes. If ...
by nedsaid
Tue Jun 12, 2018 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Vanguard Small Cap Index really small cap?
Replies: 32
Views: 1834

Re: Is Vanguard Small Cap Index really small cap?

There is no one true definition of the word "Smallcap". The Vanguard fund defines it as the smallest 15% of the market by market cap (if I'm remembering correctly). Well, sometimes close enough is close enough. Mid-Caps perform in a similar fashion to Small-Caps, tend to have a little less return w...
by nedsaid
Tue Jun 12, 2018 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Vanguard Small Cap Index really small cap?
Replies: 32
Views: 1834

Re: Is Vanguard Small Cap Index really small cap?

There is no one true definition of the word "Smallcap". The Vanguard fund defines it as the smallest 15% of the market by market cap (if I'm remembering correctly). Well, sometimes close enough is close enough. Mid-Caps perform in a similar fashion to Small-Caps, tend to have a little less return w...
by nedsaid
Tue Jun 12, 2018 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You Can Market Time At Valuation Extremes
Replies: 31
Views: 3534

Re: You Can Market Time At Valuation Extremes

Timing at market extremes is easy in theory but more difficult in practice. Markets can be overvalued for a long time. One common example is Alan Greenspan's "Irrational Exuberance" speech given on December 5, 1996. This would have been a great "sell" signal as few know more about the markets and ec...