Search found 253 matches

by Kelly
Mon Oct 22, 2018 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Indexed variable annuity question
Replies: 3
Views: 386

Re: Indexed variable annuity question

Ok. I got it now. Not surprising that over 6 year rolling period from 2000 thru 2017 the product under performed the SP 500 and balanced index.
by Kelly
Mon Oct 22, 2018 9:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Indexed variable annuity question
Replies: 3
Views: 386

Indexed variable annuity question

I hate annuities as much as the next guy. I'm convinced that they're designed to deceive. I can usually uncover the lies quickly. This one has me stumped. This Lincoln Level Advantage brochure shows an index return of $95,040 and a "Lincoln Level Advantage" value of $103,880 at the end of two years....
by Kelly
Sun Sep 23, 2018 5:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How much is too much in one stock?
Replies: 13
Views: 1537

How much is too much in one stock?

Hi All I just completed moving all of my in-laws funds from Wells Fargo to Vanguard. They are in their 80's with father in-law in cognitive decline. After re-working what I could without tax implications, they now hold a 50/50 portfolio (the bond fund fills their IRAs). One third of their savings is...
by Kelly
Sun Sep 16, 2018 9:06 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Looking for paper on loan repay vs saving
Replies: 1
Views: 141

Looking for paper on loan repay vs saving

Hi All I'm not having much luck finding an academic paper that investigates the problem of repaying loans quickly vs investing. I'm interested in the interaction between interest on a declining (loan) vs increasing (investing) account value. I know that repaying the loan is a guaranteed return. Thou...
by Kelly
Fri Jul 06, 2018 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Statistically significant alpha?
Replies: 26
Views: 1895

Re: Statistically significant alpha?

I'm a straight indexer. T R Price Blue Chip Growth (TRBCX) was brought to my attention. I ran it through Portfoliovisualizer and it's linked here https://tinyurl.com/y8q9yq85. My once good college statistics are long gone. With a t-stat of 2.3, would the conclusion be significant? Not given the sam...
by Kelly
Tue Jul 03, 2018 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Statistically significant alpha?
Replies: 26
Views: 1895

Re: Statistically significant alpha?

Thanks All!

I'm envious of your math skills!

Kelly
by Kelly
Tue Jul 03, 2018 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Statistically significant alpha?
Replies: 26
Views: 1895

Statistically significant alpha?

Hi All I'm a straight indexer. T R Price Blue Chip Growth (TRBCX) was brought to my attention. I ran it through Portfoliovisualizer and it's linked here https://tinyurl.com/y8q9yq85. My once good college statistics are long gone. With a t-stat of 2.3, would the conclusion be significant? Same questi...
by Kelly
Sun Jun 17, 2018 9:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Looking for BLS data on retiree health costs
Replies: 8
Views: 808

Looking for BLS data on retiree health costs

Hi All

I'm looking for health care expenditures for those over 65 within the Bureau of Labor Statistics 2016 survey of consumer expenditures. I'm not having much luck. Is anyone fluent with this data?

Thank you

Kelly
by Kelly
Wed Mar 21, 2018 8:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond question
Replies: 6
Views: 632

Re: Bond question

Very helpful! Thanks grok.
by Kelly
Wed Mar 21, 2018 7:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond question
Replies: 6
Views: 632

Bond question

Hi All Here's a basic question. When you buy a bond on the secondary market (assume its a treasury) you are essentially buying the yield to maturity. Is that correct? When you buy a bond fund my thought is that you are buying the current yield which you should receive if you hold the fund to its sta...
by Kelly
Sun Oct 15, 2017 2:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Basic portfolio math question
Replies: 6
Views: 722

Re: Basic portfolio math question

Hard to tell with the hypothetical 2 scenarios, but I would approach it differently, and calculate based on expected expenses over the next 10 years, what rate of return you need to not deplete your assets over the next 10 years. Then, at the 10 year mark, do the same but factor in your tax-free li...
by Kelly
Sun Oct 15, 2017 9:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Basic portfolio math question
Replies: 6
Views: 722

Basic portfolio math question

Here's the scenario: there are two time periods: ten years and beyond ten years to life expectancy. A large tax free income stream will begin in ten years. Expenses for the next ten years are to be kept in a 60/40 portfolio which amounts to 1/3 of the total assets. No bond portion is needed after te...
by Kelly
Sun Sep 10, 2017 6:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Looking for Vanguard's 2009 Econ Outlook
Replies: 0
Views: 371

Looking for Vanguard's 2009 Econ Outlook

Folks

I'm trying to find Vanguard's 2009 Economic Outlook and market expectations. The earliest I can find in google is 2010. Can anyone provide a link?

2007 would also be useful.

Thank you

Kelly
by Kelly
Tue Aug 29, 2017 8:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can't reconcile dividend taxation problem
Replies: 3
Views: 1002

Re: Can't reconcile dividend taxation problem

Numbercruncher,

You certainly live up to your name! Thank you. I was chasing my tail on this one for some time. Probably took you 2 mins. I owe you a beer next time I'm in NYC.

Kelly :sharebeer
by Kelly
Mon Aug 28, 2017 8:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can't reconcile dividend taxation problem
Replies: 3
Views: 1002

Re: Can't reconcile dividend taxation problem

Sorry, forgot to mention 15% dividend tax rate.
by Kelly
Mon Aug 28, 2017 8:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can't reconcile dividend taxation problem
Replies: 3
Views: 1002

Can't reconcile dividend taxation problem

Hi all I'm trying to reconcile two computations concerning the difference in ending balance of two investments. Each returns only a 2% dividend yield that is taxed either annually (investment A) or all once at the end of 3 compound periods (investment B). I'm trying to measure the loss of growth on ...
by Kelly
Fri Jul 28, 2017 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset location question
Replies: 5
Views: 884

Re: Asset location question

In any case, another way to rebalance out of stocks in taxable without paying cap gains tax is to donate long term shares.
This is valuable advice and will be part of the plan.

Kelly
by Kelly
Fri Jul 28, 2017 10:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset location question
Replies: 5
Views: 884

Re: Asset location question

Thanks very much for the replies!

Assuming I'm reading this correctly, Morningstar shows that Vanguard's Int'l Value (VTRIX) has a lower tax cost ratio than EFV. Both cost the same at 0.4%. Never understood why Vanguard doesn't make an international value index.


Kelly
by Kelly
Thu Jul 27, 2017 5:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset location question
Replies: 5
Views: 884

Asset location question

Hi all, Here's my situation: The taxable account is now $1M after a home sale. The IRA $500,000 The desired portfolio is 50/05 as follows (all Vgd). 15% SP 500 15% Mid cap value 10% Tot Int'l 10% Int'l value 50% Bond Tax bracket is 25%. At current rates the before tax yield on the bond index is 2.5%...
by Kelly
Sat Apr 08, 2017 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where to go for free or low cost advice?
Replies: 23
Views: 2637

Re: Where to go for free or low cost advice?

The big three no-load mutual fund companies offer this: Vanguard, Fidelity, and T. Rowe Price. This is good but I've seen cases where Fidelity tries to upsell someone into a managed account with 1% annual fee. Some thing happens with Schwab. They appear to use their ETFs as bait. Folks I know who'v...
by Kelly
Sat Apr 08, 2017 6:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where to go for free or low cost advice?
Replies: 23
Views: 2637

Where to go for free or low cost advice?

I'm giving a presentation on investing and I'm putting together a list of places to get investment help without cost. Can you add to this list? Keep in mind that the audience is not Bogleheads. Like most folks, they aren't aware of the inverse relationship between cost and performance. Nor are they ...
by Kelly
Thu Jan 26, 2017 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REIT index composition index question
Replies: 2
Views: 658

REIT index composition index question

Does anyone know what the differences are between the Dow Jones US Real Estate Index (iShare IYR) and MSCI US REIT Index (Vanguard VGSLX). Looking at historical returns in M* I see a large differences. I would think that two indexes tracking the same sectors would be close after cost. In 2014 VGSLX ...
by Kelly
Tue Jan 10, 2017 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I get out of TIAA traditional annuity?
Replies: 15
Views: 2032

Re: Should I get out of TIAA traditional annuity?

Thanks all. I was thinking the TIAA option was better than the tilt. I just needed some confirmation.

Many thanks!

Kelly
by Kelly
Tue Jan 10, 2017 4:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I get out of TIAA traditional annuity?
Replies: 15
Views: 2032

Re: Should I get out of TIAA traditional annuity?

But you also haven't really shown us what the constraints are that are forcing you to make this choice between Traditional or Small Value. For example, why haven't you been contributing to a traditional or Roth IRA or doing a backdoor Roth every year, and using it for Small Value? Yes, there is a R...
by Kelly
Tue Jan 10, 2017 3:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I get out of TIAA traditional annuity?
Replies: 15
Views: 2032

Re: Should I get out of TIAA traditional annuity?

I'm aware of the vintages and this would be an initial investment in that account. There is currently no money in that TIAA traditional so no old vintages to give up. I would not be trading fixed income for equities but would establish the 20% bond position in the total bond market index. The TIAA a...
by Kelly
Tue Jan 10, 2017 2:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I get out of TIAA traditional annuity?
Replies: 15
Views: 2032

Should I get out of TIAA traditional annuity?

Folks I have access to a TIAA Traditional Annuity Supplemental Retirement Account which has a fixed 3.25% interest rate (3% guaranteed + declared additional amounts). This appears to be favorable to the Total Bond Market Index with a 2.5% yield and 6 year duration. If I understand duration, if rates...
by Kelly
Fri Jan 06, 2017 11:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When is a 401k too expensive to contribute to?
Replies: 2
Views: 528

When is a 401k too expensive to contribute to?

Folks I made a spreadsheet to determine when I 401k is so expensive that it should be avoided if there is no matching. I came across some older threads with links to spreadsheets that others have made (Simba being one). Can anyone point to a link with an excel sheet that does this. I'd like to compa...
by Kelly
Mon Nov 21, 2016 9:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will Vanguard give basic advice?
Replies: 6
Views: 1014

Will Vanguard give basic advice?

Folks I'm an independent fee-only (no sales) CFP. I get a lot of calls from brokerage "refugees". I always help them set up an account at Vanguard and create the portfolio. I might charge 1.5 hrs for this. I take asset location (what to put in IRA, Roth taxable, etc) into account as well as allocati...
by Kelly
Sun Nov 13, 2016 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Non publicly traded REIT buyback offer
Replies: 14
Views: 2122

Non publicly traded REIT buyback offer

I relative is asking whether she should take Inventrust up on their offer to buyback shares of their non publicly traded REIT. She bought them after crossing paths with a broker at Lincoln Financial. The statement shows a share price of $4. I've read that starting in 2016 they had to report the "rea...
by Kelly
Fri Sep 02, 2016 4:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vgd Retirement Savings Trust vs Total Bond Mkt
Replies: 6
Views: 1251

Re: Vgd Retirement Savings Trust vs Total Bond Mkt

Many thanks to you both. The Vanguard paper did an excellent job explaining the details of the fund. Now I'm wondering how much to put into the stable value fund and total bond market. As a start, I see that within the Gov't TSP Lifecycle fund,the bond component is about 20% total bond market and 80...
by Kelly
Wed Aug 31, 2016 3:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vgd Retirement Savings Trust vs Total Bond Mkt
Replies: 6
Views: 1251

Vgd Retirement Savings Trust vs Total Bond Mkt

The retirement savings trust is offered in my plan along with the total bond market index. According to the Retirement Savings Trust fact sheet: "The fund invests primarily in synthetic investment contracts backed by high-credit-quality fixed income investments issued by insurance companies and bank...
by Kelly
Sun Aug 21, 2016 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I get out of Vgd Total Int'l Bond Fund?
Replies: 11
Views: 2078

Re: Should I get out of Vgd Total Int'l Bond Fund?

Thanks Taylor! Reading Bernstein always helps. This is particularly useful info from the good Dr: when you take foreign sovereign bonds and hedge them back to the dollar—you’ve basically got U.S. bonds.
by Kelly
Sun Aug 21, 2016 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I get out of Vgd Total Int'l Bond Fund?
Replies: 11
Views: 2078

Re: Should I get out of Vgd Total Int'l Bond Fund?

Even with low rates, there are a few ways you can make a return greater than the 0.4% yield. Two examples are fluctuations between exchange rates, and further cuts to the interest rate. They use currency hedging. If rates are cut, I'd still get a 0.4% annualized return by the 7.8 year duration unle...
by Kelly
Sun Aug 21, 2016 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question about bond fund duration and current SEC yield
Replies: 2
Views: 452

Question about bond fund duration and current SEC yield

Folks I asked this question earlier in another form and I think it was misunderstood. Or, maybe I don't understand the basics of bond math. Vanguard's international bond fund has a SEC yield of 0.4% and a duration of 7.8 years. According to Bogleheads wiki duration represents the length of time it w...
by Kelly
Sun Aug 21, 2016 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I get out of Vgd Total Int'l Bond Fund?
Replies: 11
Views: 2078

Re: Should I get out of Vgd Total Int'l Bond Fund?

No one can predict the future. The fund has done quite well in the past year, but does that predict the future? You might ask just as well, "Should I get out of Vg Short-term TIPS fund?" This is a bit different. Isn't it? Math drives bond returns. Probably a good portion of the past returns have be...
by Kelly
Sun Aug 21, 2016 7:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I get out of Vgd Total Int'l Bond Fund?
Replies: 11
Views: 2078

Should I get out of Vgd Total Int'l Bond Fund?

I invested 25% of my bond allocation in the Total Int'l Bond fund when it was first introduced. The rest of that allocation is 50% Intermediate Bond Index and 25% Short Term Tips. Vanguard allocates 10% of its Target Retirement Income fund to Total Int'l Bond. The Total Int'l Bond fund currently yie...
by Kelly
Tue May 31, 2016 5:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIAA Traditional account or intermediate term bond index?
Replies: 23
Views: 2263

Re: TIAA Traditional account or intermediate term bond index?

So if TIAA is under financial pressures 9 months from now, they could start paying 1% on all of your vintages of RCP Traditional.
Good to know! I missed this nuance.

Many thanks

Kelly
by Kelly
Mon May 30, 2016 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIAA Traditional account or intermediate term bond index?
Replies: 23
Views: 2263

Re: TIAA Traditional account or intermediate term bond index?

Of course there are reasons. The bond fund could do better than TIAA over the long-term. The liquidity of the bond fund is more likely higher. I have TIAA TA paying more than 4.5% nowadays, but I don't have 100% of my fixed income in that. Over the years, bond funds have actually done just as well....
by Kelly
Mon May 30, 2016 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIAA Traditional account or intermediate term bond index?
Replies: 23
Views: 2263

Re: TIAA Traditional account or intermediate term bond index?

I don't. The TIAA rates are great in today's environment. Personally I have a 3% guarantee TIAA tIRA in place of all bonds. The only question seems to be whether you will want to withdraw some someday or can live with the restrictions. Perhaps you want a mixture of both. edit: I forgot to ask you t...
by Kelly
Mon May 30, 2016 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIAA Traditional account or intermediate term bond index?
Replies: 23
Views: 2263

TIAA Traditional account or intermediate term bond index?

Folks Is there any reason why someone would want to use Vanguard's Intermediate Term Bond Index (VBILX) with a 2.18% yield when they also have access to two TIAA traditional annuities? One TIAA Traditional Annuity has a 3.25% current crediting rate (Retirement Choice Plus) and doesn't appear to have...
by Kelly
Mon May 23, 2016 7:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I annuitize my TIAA account?
Replies: 5
Views: 1533

Re: Should I annuitize my TIAA account?

Many thanks for the input. It does strike me as a good idea and I wasn't sure if I was missing anything.

Best

Kelly
by Kelly
Sun May 22, 2016 8:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Deconstructing DC area home price gains
Replies: 1
Views: 347

Deconstructing DC area home price gains

Folks I'm trying to determine how much of the price gain in Wash. DC area since 1987 is attributed to inflation and how much is attributed to the decline in mortgage rates. Here's my attempt and any comments are appreciated: -Since 1987 the Case Shiller Home Price Index for the Washington DC area ha...
by Kelly
Sun May 22, 2016 7:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Understanding How Financial Advisors Are Compensated, by Wade Pfau
Replies: 16
Views: 2714

Re: Understanding How Financial Advisors Are Compensated by Wade Pfau

So you are quibbling about "fee only" vs "Fee-Only". You say it is incorrect and then proceed to tell us why it is true.
No. A NAPFA registered, fee only advisor does not sell anything. Period. That's the clarification I wanted to make.

Kelly
by Kelly
Sun May 22, 2016 7:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Understanding How Financial Advisors Are Compensated, by Wade Pfau
Replies: 16
Views: 2714

Re: Understanding How Financial Advisors Are Compensated by Wade Pfau

The article and table unfortunately are misleading. One would come away thinking that fee only advisors do not get commissions. He briefly notes that some advisors can switch between paid by client and paid by commissions, but he implies that these would be called fee based. Many firms call themsel...
by Kelly
Mon May 16, 2016 7:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When is the last time Vanguard altered target date allocations?
Replies: 8
Views: 1458

When is the last time Vanguard altered target date allocations?

Folks

In Feb Vanguard increased international equity allocation of it's target date funds from 30% to 40%. Does anyone know of any other times that changes were made to these or any other of their funds of funds?

Many thanks

Kelly
by Kelly
Sun May 15, 2016 7:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I annuitize my TIAA account?
Replies: 5
Views: 1533

Should I annuitize my TIAA account?

Folks I've been contributing to a TIAA traditional account for over 30 years. The account balance is $181,000. If I annuitize with a 2/3 rds survivor benefit the annual payments would be $14,940 for an annuity "rate" of 8.25% (14940/181000). Current market rates from other insurers are 6.2%. The IRR...
by Kelly
Sat May 07, 2016 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sharpe's "Arithmetic of Active Management" explained very well
Replies: 10
Views: 2200

Sharpe's "Arithmetic of Active Management" explained very well

Good Bogelhead stuff

This article does a great job of explaining Nobel economist Bill Sharpe's "Arithmetic of Active Management" thesis

http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2016/05/passive/

Kelly
by Kelly
Mon May 02, 2016 7:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: LifeStrategy Moderate Growth fund or its components?
Replies: 33
Views: 4279

LifeStrategy Moderate Growth fund or its components?

Folks The Vanguard portfolio builder recommended 4 funds which are the exact components and weights of the LifeStrategy Moderate Growth fund . Is there any reason why the LifeStrategy fund wouldn't produce nearly the same results if held in an IRA (assuming the individual funds were rebalanced to ta...
by Kelly
Sun Mar 27, 2016 2:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Raid a Roth for second home down payment or US HELOC?
Replies: 4
Views: 717

Raid a Roth for second home down payment or US HELOC?

I could use a second opinion on this. I need to come up with $100k for a down payment on a second house. I can either take this from my Roth (I've met the age and 5 year requirements) or use a home equity line of credit on the primary residence. That rate is 2.4% or 1.68% after tax assuming a 30% co...
by Kelly
Mon Mar 07, 2016 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical capital gains in an index fund?
Replies: 4
Views: 781

Historical capital gains in an index fund?

Does anyone know where I can find the historical distributions of any large cap index fund? Both Morningstar and Vanguard websites only go back a couple of years.

I'm trying to determine how much, if any, long or short term capital gains an index might have distributed.

Thanks

Kelly