Search found 411 matches

by k66
Wed Dec 13, 2017 8:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Will Indexers Affect A Downturn---or the functioning of the market in the long-run?
Replies: 29
Views: 2520

Re: How Will Indexers Affect A Downturn---or the functioning of the market in the long-run?

I’m inclined to believe that although indexing may have become more popular (both in terms of total dollar invested per individual and the total number of individuals utilizing indexing), it’s not necessarily the case that all indexers will toe the line during a downturn. I think that there will be ...
by k66
Mon Dec 11, 2017 11:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the Top!
Replies: 29
Views: 2612

Re: Call the Top!

thangngo wrote:
Mon Dec 11, 2017 10:12 pm
Will you put your money on it? Or is it just for fun?
I'll take 3775.00
by k66
Fri Dec 08, 2017 12:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the top! - Bitcoin
Replies: 92
Views: 6591

Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Bitcoin $36,000
by k66
Fri Dec 08, 2017 12:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the Top!
Replies: 29
Views: 2612

Re: Call the Top!

Is it closest without going over? Or is it ok to go over if you are still closest? Kalo Yes, the winning guess would be the "closest without going over". A guess that is higher than what turns out to be the next peak would otherwise be eligible for the next iteration of the contest (should you stil...
by k66
Thu Dec 07, 2017 11:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the Top!
Replies: 29
Views: 2612

Re: Call the Top!

What is the closing date to make your predictions? What is the ending date - where you call it done and declare a winner? ... There is no preset closing date except by arriving at a 20% or greater downturn. Upon arriving at that point, the person with a guess closest to the previous high would have...
by k66
Thu Dec 07, 2017 7:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the Top!
Replies: 29
Views: 2612

Call the Top!

Given that there seems to be a persistent feeling (in the general public at least), that the market is over-valued, bubblish, and/or over-due for a correction; it might be fun to have a "Call the Top" contest. Proposal: Call the peak value of the S&P 500 (up to two decimals) that it achieves prior t...
by k66
Thu Nov 30, 2017 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rolling Returns: A Powerful Analytical Tool
Replies: 24
Views: 1735

Re: Rolling Returns: A Powerful Analytical Tool

If I were to be concerned with any type of return/performance analysis, I would be more inclined to want to see an exponential moving average (EMA) where more recent data are weighted higher than the older data.

But honestly I’m not inclined to want to look at any type of fund returns.
by k66
Thu Nov 30, 2017 8:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rolling Returns: A Powerful Analytical Tool
Replies: 24
Views: 1735

Re: Rolling Returns: A Powerful Analytical Tool

If I were to be concerned with any type of return/performance analysis, I would be more inclined to want to see an exponential moving average (EMA) where more recent data are weighted higher than the older data.

But honestly I’m not inclined to want to look at any type of fund returns.
by k66
Tue Nov 28, 2017 10:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Allocation [in market crash]
Replies: 38
Views: 1932

Re: Asset Allocation [in market crash]

Should I bank on grand scale Market Correction? As in the downward correction like that of 2008 and upward correction from 2009 onward? Should you bank on it? In what way? Yes, there will inevitably be some traumatic market-related events coming in the future--that is a fact. As to when they will o...
by k66
Mon Nov 13, 2017 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Populating a spread sheet with Investing date
Replies: 6
Views: 654

Re: Populating a spread sheet with Investing date

Thanks for the answer. It does work for mutual funds, but alas not for Stocks. I will keep optimistic for another reply. Drgolf Google finance lookup for stocks works for me. (I don't think they use Yahoo) True. The function can return both stock and MF data and from different exchanges as well. Es...
by k66
Sun Nov 12, 2017 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we headed for a crash or...
Replies: 19
Views: 1921

Re: Are we headed for a crash or...

It is reminiscent of the cycles, super-cycles, Kitchin cycles stuff... In one of my favourite representations, there are supposedly four separate 16 year cycles (corresponding to four successive Presidential terms referenced as economic spring, summer, winter and fall) that make up the larger 64 yea...
by k66
Sun Nov 12, 2017 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Populating a spread sheet with Investing date
Replies: 6
Views: 654

Re: Populating a spread sheet with Investing date

If you use Google Sheets, you can use the "googlefinance" function to retrieve price data.

https://support.google.com/docs/answer/3093281?hl=en
by k66
Mon Nov 06, 2017 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 4184
Views: 1117866

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Just kidding .... S&P 500 hits intraday all-time high at 2,588.51 Such cruelty! :happy I know that one day many will be posting seriously to this thread. But until that happens I am going to continue getting a chuckle when it is bumped :beer Maybe for the interim we should have a "U.S. Stocks on Fi...
by k66
Sun Nov 05, 2017 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who owns Vanguard? Schwab and Fidelity!
Replies: 27
Views: 3656

Re: Who owns Vanguard? Schwab and Fidelity!

Welcome to the forum eddyd!

(To other readers and for reference, Part V starts on p.60 of the linked document in the OP).

Could it be that Schwab et al are the custodians of X% of the listed funds that have been individually acquired by their customers? I don't know--I'm just asking the question.
by k66
Mon Oct 30, 2017 11:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Appropriate three-fund portfolio for US citizen with Canadian investments
Replies: 3
Views: 406

Re: Appropriate three-fund portfolio for US citizen with Canadian investments

... In my LIRA (self-directed at "Q-trade Investor" ), I hold two CAD and two USD ETFs I don't pay any monthly fees and trades (when I need them) are $8.75 CDN. I also agree with you in that hedging any currency is a needless cost and I focus entirely on maximizing the number of index-related holdi...
by k66
Mon Oct 30, 2017 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Appropriate three-fund portfolio for US citizen with Canadian investments
Replies: 3
Views: 406

Re: Appropriate three-fund portfolio for US citizen with Canadian investments

Are you sure that you have to hold investments in Canadian Dollars? In my LIRA (self-directed at "Q-trade Investor" ), I hold two CAD and two USD ETFs: VAB VCN and VTI VXUS I don't pay any monthly fees and trades (when I need them) are $8.75 CDN. I also agree with you in that hedging any currency is...
by k66
Thu Oct 26, 2017 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Theoretical — Lump Sum Investing Your Lifetime Earnings
Replies: 11
Views: 1435

Re: Theoretical — Lump Sum Investing Your Lifetime Earnings

Absolutely yes. Even discounted for inflation, a lump-sum invested at t=0 has a strong probability of growing to a value larger then investing the equivalent principal sum over the interval t=0 to t=T. I say probably only because we don't know the future absolutely and can otherwise only infer what ...
by k66
Sat Oct 21, 2017 10:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has the general public ever been correct about market crashes?
Replies: 47
Views: 3961

Re: Has the general public ever been correct about market crashes?

... An interesting idea, I think, is something Ken Fisher proposed in one of his books/articles, I have no idea how successful it is, but he suggests going out and collecting the short term estimates from lots analysts and public pundits, divide their opinions into one of four categories: "Up a lot...
by k66
Mon Oct 16, 2017 11:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30th Anniversary of October 19, 1987 stock market crash
Replies: 36
Views: 3157

Re: 30th Anniversary of October 19, 1987 stock market crash

I recall it well not because it really made any direct impression on me, but I do recall my undergrad Engineering Economics prof getting really wound up about it... I look back on it now and see it as the major event that it was. If I can learn anything from this, it is that you can be completely ob...
by k66
Wed Oct 11, 2017 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Growth rate over the next 10-20 years
Replies: 6
Views: 814

Re: Growth rate over the next 10-20 years

food for thought from an older thread on similar topic:

Recent historical returns on 50:50 AA?
by k66
Mon Oct 09, 2017 11:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Headlines du Jour [Financial news]
Replies: 4
Views: 712

Re: Headlines du Jour [Financial news]

Yes it’s true that that history does not repeat exactly, but it seems that financial news headlines recur almost verbatim!
by k66
Mon Oct 09, 2017 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: what to research on possible "too good to be true" ETF
Replies: 10
Views: 656

Re: what to research on possible "too good to be true" ETF

A few oddities that I see: a) as you noted, it has only been operational for a very short period of time (April 2016) b) it appears to be an "inverse" (leveraged) type of fund which is usually an unproductive investment for the long-run c) it executed a 2:1 split at the end of last year (why?) d) it...
by k66
Sat Oct 07, 2017 7:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Length of bull market become more risky?
Replies: 15
Views: 1664

Re: Length of bull market become more risky?

Do my investment in a prolonged bull market become more risky at higher valuations? Should I perceive the same amount of risk whether it is 2 years in to a bull market or 8? Thanks for answering such a silly question. :| I don't know if your investments have become any riskier recently -- and neith...
by k66
Mon Oct 02, 2017 2:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing Books Debunked
Replies: 24
Views: 4177

Re: Investing Books Debunked

Ahh, the Turtles! I read two books from Curtis Faith (an original Turtle) "Way of the Turtle" and "Inside the Mind of the Turtles". I also read "the Complete Turtle Trader", by Michael Covel, a Turtle follower who chronicled the in-programme and post-programme history of several Turtles (including M...
by k66
Thu Sep 28, 2017 6:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Guy proves that Buy The Dip strategy works (via backtests) any rebuttals?
Replies: 65
Views: 6933

Re: Guy proves that Buy The Dip strategy works (via backtests) any rebuttals?

I don't see how going with data back to 1930 would help one evaluate how it would help going forward from 2017. I am always skeptical of using very old data with imaginary costs and practically imaginary numbers and quite different laws and economy, then applying that to the here and now and the fu...
by k66
Tue Sep 26, 2017 11:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alternative to Google Finance? [Portfolios feature deprecated]
Replies: 64
Views: 14996

Re: Alternative to Google Finance?

Will the "googlefinance()" function (as employed in Google sheets) still work during the shutdown?
by k66
Fri Sep 22, 2017 2:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Poll] Bull or Bear for Next 5 Years?
Replies: 36
Views: 10161

Re: [Poll] Bull or Bear for Next 5 Years?

Bull AND Bear for the next 5 year? Absolutely.

I'm good to go.
by k66
Tue Sep 19, 2017 11:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: differences between stock exchanges
Replies: 5
Views: 787

Re: differences between stock exchanges

Hello wstalcup, I am by no means an expert on the topic but this may help explain some of your questions: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BATS_Global_Markets In my own crude mental framework, I liken different exchanges to different used car lots: each can sell any type of vehicle make that they can a...
by k66
Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Safe Withdrawal Rate -> 2% or lower
Replies: 72
Views: 8512

Re: Safe Withdrawal Rate -> 2% or lower

The only flaw is you could prudently spend a lot more money if you wanted to. If you want to travel more, buy a nicer car, hire out some household tasks, or increase your quality of life in any way, but do not do it for fear of not having enough money later in life, I think that is a mistake. You w...
by k66
Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Safe Withdrawal Rate -> 2% or lower
Replies: 72
Views: 8512

Re: Safe Withdrawal Rate -> 2% or lower

Folks, Someone else is discussing portfolio construction for a very safe withdrawal. But, does that make any sense if your withdrawal rate is 2% or lower? Won't simple 60/40 portfolio works? There must be a gap in my thinking. For example, if the social security cover 50% of a person's retirement e...
by k66
Tue Aug 29, 2017 5:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Learning from loss
Replies: 23
Views: 2983

Re: Learning from loss

I learned that I did not know enough to take on the markets after I thought that I knew enough to take on the markets.
by k66
Sat Aug 26, 2017 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 93% Chance Your Mutual Fund is Killing You
Replies: 3
Views: 2026

Re: 93% Chance Your Mutual Fund is Killing You

It's an interesting plug indeed. Instead of arguing that the passive index route is the more effective investing path, the authors suggest that rather than getting continuously beat up by 1% Mutual Fund fees or settling for "average" market return, a person is better off riding their Foolish hot-pic...
by k66
Fri Aug 25, 2017 1:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "I'm Bill Bengen, and I first proposed the 4% safe withdrawal rate in 1994. Ask me anything!"
Replies: 119
Views: 14737

Re: "I'm Bill Bengen, and I first proposed the 4% safe withdrawal rate in 1994. Ask me anything!"

my own spreadsheet output using data from 1928 to present (SP 500 for equities and 10-yr Treasuries for bonds, both adjusted for CPI) would suggest SWRs of 4.15% for a 25 year period, 3.81% for a 30 year period, 3.64% for a 35 year period and 3.80% for a 40 year period. Must be a typo. SWR can only...
by k66
Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "I'm Bill Bengen, and I first proposed the 4% safe withdrawal rate in 1994. Ask me anything!"
Replies: 119
Views: 14737

Re: "I'm Bill Bengen, and I first proposed the 4% safe withdrawal rate in 1994. Ask me anything!"

4.5% rule? I didn't know this. Thanks for your question. Before I answer it specifically, why don't we dispense with some preliminaries, so we are all on the same page? The "4% rule" is actually the "4.5% rule"- I modified it some years ago on the basis of new research. The 4.5% is the percentage y...
by k66
Tue Aug 22, 2017 8:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Case for Investing at Peaks
Replies: 29
Views: 3795

Re: Case for Investing at Peaks

... What do you do to convince yourself to invest even if the market is frothy? I know that if I only invest at the "worst" times (as you were alluding to by your reference to the "worlds worst market timer") and can still do OK, then by investing (more or less continuously) between all the potenti...
by k66
Thu Aug 10, 2017 10:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Data on number of stocks up/down each year?
Replies: 1
Views: 306

Re: Data on number of stocks up/down each year?

As I am sometimes prone to saying: Fill your Boots.

S&P500 Component Performances

It looks like for today, a net down day for the index, there were 28% Bulls and 72% Bears.
by k66
Thu Jul 06, 2017 3:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New retirement solution aims to improve retirement outcomes for Canadians
Replies: 4
Views: 869

Re: New retirement solution aims to improve retirement outcomes for Canadians

... Link - http://www.sunlife.ca/Canada/GRS+matters/GRS+matters+articles/2017/Breaking+News/Sun+Lifes+next+generation+target+date+retirement+solution+Canadas+newest+retirement+innovation?vgnLocale=en_CA BobK The introduction of this solution shifts the focus of the retirement conversation away from...
by k66
Thu Jul 06, 2017 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is a "sleeve"?
Replies: 34
Views: 3712

Re: What is a "sleeve"?

My friend's financial advisor is encouraging her to go with an "end sleeve" and to avoid index funds at all costs :D [pun intended] What is an "end sleeve"? I don't find anything on the wiki about it. A sleeve could also be a box of three golf balls. Perhaps your friend's advisor is angling for tha...
by k66
Mon Jul 03, 2017 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: black swan/fooled by randomness
Replies: 11
Views: 2444

Re: black swan/fooled by randomness

I am looking forward to reading Fooled By Randomness . Apparently Taleb discusses Monte Carlo in that book. Over a decade later, he insists that Monte Carlo is the best way to learn probability: To the freq. question, "which book to learn probability?" DO NOT start w/books. Do zillions of Monte Car...
by k66
Fri Jun 30, 2017 2:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Where Did The 4% Rule Come From (Hint It Wasen't From The Trinity Study)
Replies: 6
Views: 1769

Re: Where Did The 4% Rule Come From (Hint It Wasen't From The Trinity Study)

Didn't we already know this? And as much as Bengen is the progenitor of the 4% notion, there are some "flaws" that I don't like with his methodology (that were better controlled for in the Trinity study).
by k66
Fri Jun 30, 2017 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good Article on Bubbles and Staying the Course
Replies: 27
Views: 3693

Re: Bubbles

Yes it is a great piece -- thought-provoking for sure.

But also covered in this thread here: Good Article on Bubbles and Staying the Course
by k66
Wed Jun 28, 2017 8:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Illinois: A slow swimming black swan?
Replies: 32
Views: 5167

Re: Illinois: A slow swimming black swan?

Read the Illinois Lottery is suspending all Powerball and Mega Millions sales in the state because of the ongoing budget crisis. _ Maybe they shouldn't do that... maybe the Governor should be buying all kinds of tickets in order to have a statistically reasonable chance of hitting the jackpot. I gu...
by k66
Wed Jun 28, 2017 8:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Quincy Jones Streaming Music, Media & Entertainment ETF"
Replies: 13
Views: 1385

Re: "Quincy Jones Streaming Music, Media & Entertainment ETF"

Well, maybe it it will be cool and jazzy at first but I think it may also have less rhythm and too many blues for what a long term investor wants to hear.

Also,no mention of fees. That's certainly not music to my ears either.
by k66
Tue Jun 20, 2017 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Persistent Returns Remain Elusive
Replies: 15
Views: 2838

Re: Larry Swedroe: Persistent Returns Remain Elusive

It would appear though that persistence does exist... persistence of inconsistence (within a group).
by k66
Sun Jun 04, 2017 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "I trail my bogy by 31 percentage points"
Replies: 26
Views: 4731

Re: "I trail my bogy by 31 percentage points"

Here is a snapshot of her project portfolio at the end of April this year:

http://www.kiplinger.com/article/invest ... folio.html
by k66
Fri Jun 02, 2017 8:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RMD on Declining Balance
Replies: 53
Views: 4205

Re: RMD on Declining Balance

Also, the nominal 4% rule is to withdraw 4% of the starting balance, and annually adjust the amount of the withdrawal for inflation. It's a rule of thumb, and is currently considered a bit too aggressive to guarantee. Like all rules of thumb, you have to adjust as you go. I don't think you are supp...
by k66
Tue May 30, 2017 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment complications
Replies: 5
Views: 838

Re: Investment complications

Congratulations FutureShock.

My own "a-ha" realization came about 9 years ago reading the "Naked Investor" but then almost another two years after that to get fully adapted with a BH style portfolio and mindset.

It's never too late to start!
by k66
Tue May 30, 2017 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2017 hedge fund contest
Replies: 232
Views: 32449

Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Hmmm, I see that my JNS (Janus Capital) has merged with Henderson PLC resulting in a new listing on the NYSE for Janus-Henderson under the ticker "JHG" News Release The new JHG seems to be trading in the $30 range but the "closing" price for Janus/JNS from last Friday was in the $14 range (implying ...
by k66
Fri May 26, 2017 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Foodstamp's Proactive Indexing Model
Replies: 6
Views: 1030

Re: Foodstamp's Proactive Indexing Model

Hello I think I have stumbled on the perfect formula 50% Index fund (total US) 15% GOOGL 15% AMZN 15% NVDA 5% JNJ, V, AAPL I don't think it is possible to beat my formula. The individual equities are all super cheap relative to 20 years from now so you won't go wrong even buying in after the run up...