Search found 498 matches

by k66
Sat May 30, 2020 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Come on in, the water is fine: My 10-yr BH experience
Replies: 6
Views: 1265

Come on in, the water is fine: My 10-yr BH experience

Sometime around 2007 I think I decided to look more closely at what my retirement savings were "doing" and whether or not it was enough. Up until that point, my savings were directed into a company savings plan and we were given a menu of funds to choose from. In those days I knew not a bond from a Bollinger band, but I decided that (if my projections were correct), I needed to step up my level of understanding and be a bit more involved, etc. By the summer 2008 I had read a couple of books (including the Naked Investor) and decided to pull as much as I could out of my company plan and start managing on my own... Yes, mistakes were made and the Great Fall of '08 was only months away. So, like many others, I took on some water but ...
by k66
Tue Apr 23, 2019 4:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the Top!
Replies: 101
Views: 14870

Re: Call the Top!

The train keeps on rolling... a new closing high today for the S&P 500 @ 2933.68 (besting the previous closing high on Sept 20, 2018 @ 2930.75). The recent closing low of 2351.10 set on Dec. 24, 2018 was "only" 19.8% below the then-current high; narrowly adverting the Bear and this contest's end. The contest remains open to new entries. Rules revisited: Call the peak value of the S&P 500 (up to two decimals) that it achieves prior to succumbing to a minimum 20% drop before regaining that value again. No date is required, just call the top. The (first) person with a guess closest to the previous high would have the winning guess. So, this contest would be somewhat open-ended. Notes: 1. the S&P reference value is at the ...
by k66
Wed Jan 30, 2019 8:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.
Replies: 96
Views: 14017

Re: It was a dip. Did you notice? The December drop is over.

Does it need an update? I'm not sure, but I'll throw in some lyrics...

Oh, what a dip
Late December, back on the Eve
What a very special time for me
As I remember what a dip

Oh, what a trade
Put my bonus cash into the "Sale"
Let me tell you brother; it's a tale
What a bargain, what a trade
by k66
Fri Jan 25, 2019 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't good ideas beat the market?
Replies: 33
Views: 3527

Re: Why don't good ideas beat the market?

I can think of at least one good idea that consistently beats (average) market performance net fees... (which is the only performance metric which matters).

Thanks again Jack.
by k66
Tue Jan 01, 2019 3:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest
Replies: 250
Views: 31244

Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

By using the latest in CRISPR technologies to pathologically alter ordinary fund expense ratios into perverse and grotesque derivatives of their once-benign original selves; K66 fund engineers release what we hope is our biggest release (of capital from your pockets into ours) to date:

Fund: MER-page!

Long: GEO

Short: CROX, WLFC
by k66
Thu Oct 25, 2018 8:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Deleted]
Replies: 30
Views: 7739

Re: 180 years of Drawdowns, Get used to it

The paper is an interesting read; as the author notes, market phenomena are decidedly unpredictable except perhaps in aggregate response.

A few questions regarding the plots:

a) What does the value (of Log Draw Down) of -1.6 (approx) imply (for the point at aprrox. 1932 in Fig. 3)? A person lost their entire savings + another 60%?

b) How were zero and negative values introduced as ordinate values (Log Index S&P 500) in Figure 2? Log's are always positive values.

c) Figure 1 is labelled as Logarithmic (Log Index) but clearly is not.
by k66
Wed Oct 24, 2018 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Changing to higher equities allocation during a major crash?
Replies: 26
Views: 3608

Re: Changing to higher equities allocation during a major crash?

Sure -- buying equities when they are cheap(er) is a great plan and often works well in hindsight. The problem though is knowing when the optimal buying point arrives. For example, the market crashed in (Sept) 2008 but it was actually the summer of 2007 when the peak was achieved. At what point after June 2007 would you execute your strategy? Bear in mind that you have little to no inkling that the fire-sale prices really won't arrive until people start talking about the potential complete collapse of the fiscal system in late 2008 and into 2009. Why not just rebalance as the differences between equities and bonds unbalance your established AA (i.e. Asset Allocation, which is presumably set according to your need, ability, and willingness t...
by k66
Fri Oct 12, 2018 8:25 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: “$1000/month job is worth $300k in retirement funds” // What are some retirement jobs you would actually enjoy doing?
Replies: 103
Views: 11837

Re: “$1000/month job is worth $300k in retirement funds” // What are some retirement jobs you would actually enjoy doing

“$1000/month job is worth $300k in retirement funds” Bringing in a $1000 a month would make a huge difference for some people but I would have to question the $300K figure. The math seems straightforward: $1000/month yields $12,000/year=4% withdrawal rate on $300,000 in retirement funds. As for working I"m in agreement that my math is retirement=I don't have to work anywhere doing anything for any amount of money ever again :D But would a person maintain this part-time work for 30-years (the period of time for which the 4% WR applies)? So yes, the $1k/month seems to be equivalent in some respects, and if a person is fortunate to find worthy or interesting work then all the better, but it's not necessarily a replacement for an addition...
by k66
Sat Sep 29, 2018 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should we stay in Crazytown because there's no where to run?
Replies: 148
Views: 22399

Re: Should we stay in Crazytown because there's no where to run?

U.S. stocks are nuts. Shiller CAPE now stands at 33.36 and the only time in history it was higher was Feb, 1998 to Mar 2001 which would have been a wild ride. If you had gotten out of stocks in Feb 1998 you could have stayed out for 12 years and gotten back in at the price you sold, meanwhile making about 50% on safe 5-year treasuries. Should we really just hold our noses and wait? How do you manage this psychologically? Feels like standing on the train track watching the light coming toward you getting bigger. Are we just staying in Crazytown because other places, like bonds, seem even crazier? Tough times for the buy-and-hold crowd. Anyone starting to flinch? I am. Is the US market really nuts? By what measure--the CAPE-10? The CAPE-10 i...
by k66
Tue Sep 25, 2018 6:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Deleted]
Replies: 2
Views: 1446

Re: 38 years of Markets Corrections

What is the source?
by k66
Mon Sep 24, 2018 8:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I am thinking about using this Two Bucket Retirement Plan how does it compare to the three fund portfolio?
Replies: 12
Views: 2364

Re: I am thinking about using this Two Bucket Retirement Plan how does it compare to the three fund portfolio?

I had to stop after he indicated to his audience that "the rule of thumb for the 4% rule is 4.4%...".

I'll stick with my simple 4-fund portfolio (or should that be 4.4 funds now?).
by k66
Sun Sep 23, 2018 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can someone else explain the math behind this?
Replies: 1
Views: 675

Re: Can someone else explain the math behind this?

The author means that the five percent loss (L) is w.r.t the whole portfolio (P), but the one position (p1) represents 10% of your portfolio.

So p1 = 10% P, and L = 5% P, and p1 = $100.

P = $100/0.1 = $1000

L = 0.05 * $1000 = $50

Is the author Van Tharp?

The requisite gain is the inverse of the loss (and vice versa): G = 1 / L. If Loss = 30%, or more succinctly written in decimal format, L = 0.7, then G = 1/0.7 = 1.4285... (implying that a 30% loss requires a 43% gain to re-establish unity). It's not necessary to believe that gains and losses need to be numerically similar in order to equivalent.
by k66
Fri Sep 21, 2018 3:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those who use a 2 year cash(like) buffer, how do you know when to use it?
Replies: 67
Views: 6764

Re: For those who use a 2 year cash(like) buffer, how do you know when to use it?

David Jay wrote: Fri Sep 21, 2018 9:53 am I expect to retire next year. In my IPS, I call for an increasing equity glideslope (I built a "bond tent" for my early retirement years) of 2% per year.
...
I am interested in that you are planning a increasing glide for equities during retirement. I am still several years away from retirement myself, but what Equities glide are you planning to undertake? I haven't ruled the possibility of something along this line for myself (e.g. 60% initially ramping up to 100% @ 40 years... assuming I even get that far!).
by k66
Tue Sep 18, 2018 2:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "7 Retirement-Portfolio Withdrawal Mistakes to Avoid"
Replies: 13
Views: 2571

Re: "7 Retirement-Portfolio Withdrawal Mistakes to Avoid"

Quote: "Retirees can use the IRS' tables for required minimum distributions as a starting point to inform their withdrawal rates." Is it correct to read that as follows: "Retirees can use the IRS' tables for required minimum distributions as a starting point to inform their OVERALL withdrawal rates FROM THEIR ENTIRE NEST EGG."?? In other words, if my RMD factor for age 70 is 27.4 (IRA balance divided by 27.4), is it reasonable to to divide your entire nest egg by the same 27.4 to inform the overall withdrawal amount from all accounts? (Not that I'd use that as the ONLY thing to consider.) Thanks so much, Taylor, for this and for all you do. I find this to be a useful study: CAN RETIREES BASE WEALTH WITHDRAWALS ON THE IR...
by k66
Sun Sep 09, 2018 9:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Commodities have never been cheaper - time to buy?
Replies: 46
Views: 6733

Re: Commodities have never been cheaper - time to buy?

There does seem to be a small group of ETFs that apparently track the S&P GSCI, but they aren't necessarily cheap ER-wise:

S&P GSCI Total Return Index – ETF Tracker

With the exception of BCI (0.29%), the rest have ERs between 0.5% and over 1%.
by k66
Sat Sep 08, 2018 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Rigged Horse Race
Replies: 2
Views: 1507

Re: Larry Swedroe: Rigged Horse Race

An interesting read -- thanks. One thing that isn't immediately clear to me, either in Mr. Swedroe's article or the original paper, is the potential costs associated with moving and out of funds for the periods indicated. For instance, some funds are only on the list for a few years and others come and go (e.g the Fidelity Contrafund is in the US Equities category for 16 years, but over three different periods). Should I expect to experience other fees (penalties) for this activity? In looking at the author's aggregated results (Table 3), the average (annual) returns are 5.9% (active group) and 5.5% (passive group). The corresponding geometric returns I calculated to be 4.65% (active) and 4.19% (passive). If we set aside the "apples &a...
by k66
Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does market timing have to be perfect to be effective?
Replies: 35
Views: 3377

Re: Does market timing have to be perfect to be effective?

Does Market Timing (MT) have to be perfect to be effective? No. Staying the Course (STC) leaves a lot of money on the table (w.r.t. perfect MT), but it's really difficult to get a MT scheme that works well enough and/or consistently eough to beat STC (and by "scheme", I mean some type of systemized approach using one or several indicators, values, ratios, etc). In the past, I tried developing my own schemes and using proprietary products. None of them could be effectively back-tested to be better than STC. I looked at Turtle Trading, I looked at Van Tharp's writings, I subscribed to Vector-Vest, and lot's of others--none of them could offer a better (more profitable) way of investing. That's when I decided that because I couldn't ...
by k66
Wed Sep 05, 2018 4:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Safeguarding Your Wealth From The Effects Of Cognitive Decline"
Replies: 52
Views: 6953

Re: "Safeguarding Your Wealth From The Effects Of Cognitive Decline"

With respect to the "Fiduciary Oath" (as referenced in the article) and copied here for reference: To what degree is this really legally enforceable (as suggested in the article)? PUTTING YOUR INTERESTS FIRST  I believe in placing your best interests first. Therefore, I am proud to commit to the following five fiduciary principles: I will always put your best interests first. I will act with prudence; that is, with the skill, care, diligence, and good judgment of a professional. I will not mislead you, and I will provide conspicuous, full and fair disclosure of all important facts. I will avoid conflicts of interest. I will fully disclose and fairly manage, in your favor, any unavoidable conflicts. Advisor ___________________...
by k66
Mon Sep 03, 2018 5:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: (FREE!) Art Collecting Event... what's the catch?
Replies: 11
Views: 1651

Re: (FREE!) Art Collecting Event... what's the catch?

RickBoglehead wrote: Mon Sep 03, 2018 3:37 pm Park West is big in this...
Park West looks like a familiar name.

Thanks for all of the replies and insights--they have been useful and helpful.
by k66
Sun Sep 02, 2018 9:36 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: (FREE!) Art Collecting Event... what's the catch?
Replies: 11
Views: 1651

(FREE!) Art Collecting Event... what's the catch?

Several years ago, my mother took a cruise and enjoyed it immensely. As you may know, there is often an opportunity to partake in an art auction on board and have your purchased pieces shipped to your door after you return home. My mother did buy a few small pieces during one of these auctions and of course, they wanted some contact data. All fine and good; the art arrived several weeks later and it would seem that was the end of it. Last week, 5 years after the cruise, she received a phone call and email inviting her to attend an "Art Collecting Event" in a large metro area and the 3-nights 4-star hotel accommodation would be complimentary along with meals, some drinks, and entertainment. I also presume that there will be a hefty...
by k66
Thu Aug 30, 2018 11:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Sequence of Returns Risk even make sense for early retirees?
Replies: 10
Views: 1712

Re: Does Sequence of Returns Risk even make sense for early retirees?

All returns have an effect on the eventual success or failure of a portfolio which is being systematically drawn down over a period of time regardless of the length of that time.

The effect of any single return is exponentially related to its occurrence in the progression of returns--those that occur earliest have the greatest impact, while those that occur the latest have the least.
by k66
Wed Aug 29, 2018 8:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the Top!
Replies: 101
Views: 14870

Re: Call the Top!

by k66
Mon Aug 27, 2018 8:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the Top!
Replies: 101
Views: 14870

Re: Call the Top!

Crisium wrote: Mon Aug 27, 2018 2:18 pm My analysis indicates 3333.33
It seems that in this case, the 3's have come in pairs; USGrant previously called 3333.33 last year.

Did you have another pick?
by k66
Mon Aug 27, 2018 1:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pensions and retirement savings rate
Replies: 30
Views: 3406

Re: Pensions and retirement savings rate

chill116 wrote: Mon Aug 27, 2018 1:31 pm Agreed. I guess my question is more about practical thoughts on retirement saving in light of also having a pension.
Are you able to calculate what that DB pension will be worth at full retirement? You don't have to post the number here, but obviously you want to be able to understand what that pension will be able to contribute at full value and then make an assessment if it is enough--or not--and how much more you should squirrel away as a result.
by k66
Sun Aug 26, 2018 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the Top!
Replies: 101
Views: 14870

Re: Call the Top!

Mursili wrote: Sun Aug 26, 2018 12:43 am
k66 wrote: Fri Aug 24, 2018 4:41 pm Edit to add: Current Leader is gogleheads.orb with 2718.28 (...a natural choice I assume)
Very well done there.

If no one has taken 3141.59, I will try that.
That little slice of pi was previously taken by rkhusky. Do you have another choice?
celia wrote: Sun Aug 26, 2018 1:56 am 2874.69

I say we're standing on the apex right now.

... I gotta go sit down now.
I nudged your entry to 2874.70 in order to be higher than the current index value at the time of your guess.
balbrec2 wrote: Sun Aug 26, 2018 7:09 am Exercise in futility. Anyone can get lucky!
Yes, it is exceptional futile, but just think, if you do win, you could have a Talking Head gig for ages to come!
by k66
Fri Aug 24, 2018 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the Top!
Replies: 101
Views: 14870

Re: Call the Top!

Ladies and Gentlemen: Start your engines! The S&P 500 notched a new high today @ 2874.69 besting the January 26 high of 2872.87. Since that time we've had two trips to -10% (Feb 8th and April 2nd at 2581 and 2582 respectively), but not enough to trigger a -20% Bear. With that, the contest is reopened (see below for a rules refresher). What is the closing date to make your predictions? What is the ending date - where you call it done and declare a winner? ... There is no preset closing date except by arriving at a 20% or greater downturn. Upon arriving at that point, the person with a guess closest to the previous high would have the winning guess. So, this contest would be somewhat open-ended. For clarification, I suppose we should have...
by k66
Thu Aug 23, 2018 11:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Only Investment Guide You'll Ever Need" Kindle daily deal
Replies: 16
Views: 12925

Re: "The Only Investment Guide You'll Ever Need" Kindle daily deal

linenfort wrote: Thu Aug 23, 2018 8:10 am Turned out to not even be worth $2. :(
Maybe it was better when it first came out.
Do you have any particular thoughts that led to the :(-rating?
by k66
Mon Aug 20, 2018 9:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dollar cost averaging frequency
Replies: 10
Views: 2996

Re: Dollar cost averaging frequency

I accounting class 20 years ago I learned that frequency of interest compounding matters...more frequently is always better, but compounding daily vs. monthly doesn't make that big of a difference, practically. However, my online bank compounds daily; I assume modern technology makes this essy. What about dollar cost averaging? If dollar cost averaging more often better? If not, is there an optimum frequency? With modern ACH contributions, contributing daily or weekly would be easy, but is there any benefit? I believe it's best to rebalance yearly or quarterly, and more frequent rebalancing is actually worse. Is there a similar rule of thumb for DCA? What is your cost to execute a trade, or more generally, what is your cost to contribute m...
by k66
Mon Aug 20, 2018 8:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Active’s Surprising Survival
Replies: 11
Views: 1365

Re: Larry Swedroe: Active’s Surprising Survival

It's always worthwhile to read one of Larry's pieces.
software wrote: Mon Aug 20, 2018 8:30 am
Alexa9 wrote: Mon Aug 20, 2018 8:25 am Some claim if most everyone goes passive, active will become more easy. I forget their rationale.
It’s because active investors keep markets efficient. The more inefficiencies (I.e. stocks either over or under valued), the more opportunities for an active investor to profit.
So as the pool of active managers retreats, does the bar that Active has to hurdle become lower again? As Larry described it, and it makes sense, there is an Active Paradox which implies that the more skill is imparted in the game, the more luck determines the eventual winner(s). If and when we see fewer Active managers in play, will skill be more evident and draw back investors from the Passive side?
by k66
Mon Aug 20, 2018 8:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Slash your retirement Risk
Replies: 10
Views: 2795

Re: Slash your retirement Risk

Hey all has anyone read this book and folks that may have thoughts on his system as discussed in the book ? Thanks Is this the book you are referring to? "Slash Your Retirement Risk", Chris Cook Slash Your Retirement Risk is your step-by-step guide to create a retirement portfolio that will provide true financial peace of mind, one that features: The broad diversification essential in today's globally interconnected marketplace. A built-in ability to capitalize on market upswings to generate growth. Automatic protections against inevitable market downswings. An investing strategy that minimizes fees and costs to maximize portfolio gains. The highlighted features make it almost sound like a BH-style VPW (variable percentage withdr...
by k66
Sat Aug 18, 2018 9:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do You Believe Diversification Is The Right Strategy Only If The Investment Horizon Is Long?
Replies: 28
Views: 2919

Re: Do You Believe Diversification Is The Right Strategy Only If The Investment Horizon Is Long?

That is a good question. For myself, I have two saving streams that are not specifically "long-term", so I suppose they could be considered short(er) term. One is for my daughter's university studies and will be depleted in the next two to three years. The other is a simple "general all purpose" savings account for immediate needs at indeterminate times.

But in both accounts, I selected a bond fund a the method of investment; so "safe", as in "no equities", but diversified in the duration, type and number of holdings in the fund.
by k66
Thu Aug 16, 2018 9:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck
Replies: 203
Views: 12906

Re: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck

And why wouldn’t Markets spend some time below the Mean PE? It is a mean after all. This is why the CAPE model appears to be broken. It's been above its mean 98% of the time for the past 26 years. And it's not like it didn't have chances to revert. We had two stock crashes in that time period, one of which was nearly a full-out financial panic. Even during that, it barely crossed below the historical mean. I think it's certainly reasonable to wonder if the model is broken, if some variable is unaccounted for, if something has changed. ... Good point. Doesn't the Gordon Equation have a third term which is the rate of change of growth and typically assumed to be zero; e.g. R = y + y' + y", where we set y" to zero and use CAEP10 as ...
by k66
Wed Aug 15, 2018 9:57 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Mistake done [Europe - Have you ever regretted a trade that you made?]
Replies: 13
Views: 1862

Re: Mistake done [Europe - Have you ever regretted a trade that you made?]

Hello leachim -- Welcome to the forum. Don't worry about daily or intra-daily movements. It is all noise. Concern yourself with preparing an IPS (or Investment Policy Statement--a roadmap of how you want to execute your portfolio own plan) and building a portfolio that you understand, one which will serve your long-term needs. Focus on diversification, but achieve it as simply as you can (i.e. holding as few products as necessary). The principle of a 3-fund portfolio is both robust and simple to execute. Minimize costs (expense ratios especially). Think in terms of basis points (percents of a percent) rather than whole percents. The more you can take back the fees that someone else wants to take from you, the better off you will be. And fin...
by k66
Wed Aug 15, 2018 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Deleted]
Replies: 47
Views: 10462

Re: Take your canes out in Emerging Markets

Now Hear This: Load torpedo bay "EM"; Commence Market Timing at will.
by k66
Wed Aug 15, 2018 12:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Magic Formula Results
Replies: 20
Views: 3864

Re: Magic Formula Results

Has anyone really tried the Magic Formula, from Grennblatt's "The Little Book That Beats the Market"? ... As of 8/14/2011 I have average 8.91% annualized. Over this period, the S&P made 6.16%, the DOW 6.27%, and the NASDAQ 10.55%. I beat the S&P and DOW, but not the NASDAQ. I could have just bought the NASDAQ but I am sure it has losing spans and I am diversified across sectors (I hope by the random picks). ... This gains are not near as good as the claims in the book. I am beating some indexes, but am I 'beating the market'? How do I define market? Are you beating the indexes? Perhaps. But should you not also be comparing your, what I assume is a total return (e.g. a return which includes potential dividends and trading ...
by k66
Tue Aug 14, 2018 7:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Magic Formula Results
Replies: 20
Views: 3864

Re: Magic Formula Results

Has anyone really tried the Magic Formula, from Grennblatt's "The Little Book That Beats the Market"? ... As of 8/14/2011 I have average 8.91% annualized. Over this period, the S&P made 6.16%, the DOW 6.27%, and the NASDAQ 10.55%. I beat the S&P and DOW, but not the NASDAQ. I could have just bought the NASDAQ but I am sure it has losing spans and I am diversified across sectors (I hope by the random picks). ... This gains are not near as good as the claims in the book. I am beating some indexes, but am I 'beating the market'? How do I define market? Are you beating the indexes? Perhaps. But should you not also be comparing your, what I assume is a total return (e.g. a return which includes potential dividends and trading ...
by k66
Tue Aug 14, 2018 8:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Very confused with the current market
Replies: 119
Views: 17678

Re: Very confused with the current market

Interesting thread the OP started 5 years ago... https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=115916&p=1687411#p1687411 I have to wonder when the OP was ever certain about the market? you are right, I missed some good opportunities. an interest post from vanguard: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/10/business/vanguard-recession-economy.html OP: Did you read the article or just the "scary" headline? If the facts change — with, say, the Federal Reserve delaying anticipated interest-rate hikes in response to a weaker economy — the recession forecast will change, too, Mr. Davis said. To be clear, Vanguard isn’t predicting a recession; it is merely saying that the odds of one have risen. “ You could also say the chance o...
by k66
Mon Aug 13, 2018 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there such a thing as bull or bear markets?
Replies: 6
Views: 1417

Re: Is there such a thing as bull or bear markets?

... And the current bull market is only a couple of years old . Classification challenges like this one cry out for an objective definition. One firm that has responded to the clarion call is Ned Davis Research, defining a bull market as a 30% rise in the DJIA or the Value Line Geometric Index after 50 calendar days or a 13% rise in the DJIA after 155 calendar days. While you can quibble with this or that aspect of these criteria, I challenge you to come up with another objective definition that does a better job. Most who try their hand at doing so quickly find that their proposed criteria either determine that there have been too many or too few bull markets relative to what we traditionally assume. I am assuming that the 30% figure abov...
by k66
Fri Aug 10, 2018 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there such a thing as bull or bear markets?
Replies: 6
Views: 1417

Re: Is there such a thing as bull or bear markets?

... And the current bull market is only a couple of years old . Classification challenges like this one cry out for an objective definition. One firm that has responded to the clarion call is Ned Davis Research, defining a bull market as a 30% rise in the DJIA or the Value Line Geometric Index after 50 calendar days or a 13% rise in the DJIA after 155 calendar days. While you can quibble with this or that aspect of these criteria, I challenge you to come up with another objective definition that does a better job. Most who try their hand at doing so quickly find that their proposed criteria either determine that there have been too many or too few bull markets relative to what we traditionally assume. I am assuming that the 30% figure abov...
by k66
Wed Aug 08, 2018 5:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simple Retirement Model of Withdraw Rate, Return Sequence, & Asset Allocation
Replies: 5
Views: 1909

Re: Simple Retirement Model of Withdraw Rate, Return Sequence, & Asset Allocation

... Here are the ten worst 3-year periods -- which might be more meaningful to investors. During the worst one, 1929-1931, the S&P 500 fell 55% in real terms. (The fall was bigger in nominal terms, but the CPI declined almost 15% over these three years.) ---- Change Over Next ---- Next Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 30 Year ---- ------ ------ ------ ------- 1929 (8.83%) (27.07%) (54.83%) 6.10% 1930 (20.00%) (50.46%) (49.56%) 6.77% 2000 (12.01%) (23.62%) (41.79%) 1972 14.85% (9.47%) (40.28%) 6.85% 1973 (21.17%) (48.00%) (33.39%) 5.40% 1939 (1.10%) (12.28%) (30.39%) 8.63% 2006 12.75% 14.26% (27.57%) 1946 (22.48%) (25.08%) (23.10%) 6.17% 1940 (11.30%) (29.62%) (23.07%) 8.14% 2007 1.34% (35.76%) (21.23%) This is another good point to make--one ...
by k66
Tue Aug 07, 2018 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simple Retirement Model of Withdraw Rate, Return Sequence, & Asset Allocation
Replies: 5
Views: 1909

Re: Simple Retirement Model of Withdraw Rate, Return Sequence, & Asset Allocation

Thanks #Cruncher. Just as a cursory review of S&P 500 Returns (including dividends, but in nominal terms), Damodaran's data suggest a maximum single year drawdown of -43.83% (1931). Annual Returns on Stock, T.Bonds and T.Bills: 1928 - Current Using Shiller's CPI data, the real largest drawdown for the S&P 500 occurred in 2008 with a 38.9% loss (In 1931, the real value was -38.3%). ONLINE DATA ROBERT SHILLER Applying a bit of analysis, the rolling 30-year cumulative real (total) return of the S&P 500 expressed as an annualized figure varied from 4.3% (1965-1995) to 10.2% (1932-1962). The average was about 7.0%. If I input 0.043 at cell B4 and -0.389 (the worst-year drawdown from 2008) in cell B6 and leave the remaining cells at B...
by k66
Thu Jul 26, 2018 9:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “The China Hustle”
Replies: 3
Views: 906

Re: “The China Hustle”

Do the Hustle...

China Hustle Movie [Doc]
by k66
Sun Jul 15, 2018 8:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to determine weights within portfolio
Replies: 29
Views: 2249

Re: How to determine weights within portfolio

I've been searching for a way to determine the optimum weighting of individual securities within a portfolio assuming the stock/bond ratio has already been determined. As an example, in the following portfolio I wish the 3 stock market ETFs to equal 75% of the total, but how do I determine the individual weighting? VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market VEA Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets VWO Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets BND Vanguard Total Bond Market I have been reading about modern portfolio theory and efficient frontiers, etc but have not come across any practical way of doing it myself other than simply copying what others have done. Wealthfront has written a white paper on how they do it (https://research.wealthfront.com/whitepapers/invest...
by k66
Tue Jul 10, 2018 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing for Income Vs. Taking Withdrawals?
Replies: 6
Views: 1105

Re: Investing for Income Vs. Taking Withdrawals?

From the same author: 'Dividend Growth Investing' without the Dividend Growth Colour me sceptical, but I think he is just advocating reinvestment of dividend(s) earned to create compounding growth. Not an original idea and central to any portfolio strategy. If you are in the process of withdrawing, then you may, depending on the size of your draw, still be compounding dividends (and interest) earned inside the portfolio. ...Or you can invest in higher yielding assets that may never grow their own individual dividend, and create your own portfolio income growth through reinvestment and compounding. ... (which) ...I call "Income Factory" investing. It lets me sleep better at night and actually view downturns as opportunities for acc...
by k66
Thu Jul 05, 2018 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks
Replies: 198
Views: 22681

Re: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks

Mornigstar wrote:“Our expectation at the moment is that you won’t have any real return from U.S. equities over the next 10 years,” said Morningstar’s Dan Kemp at a company event Wednesday in London. In the chart he shared below, the black line is pretty close to zero for American stocks.
CULater wrote:Is it finally time to go anti-Bogle and get into foreign stocks big-time?
So, is it time to abandon the best portfolio- and wealth-building methodology that we know of in favour of a squiggly black line? A squiggly black line which is based on analysis that we know is imperfect and really has little to no predictive capacity?

I know my answer.
by k66
Tue Jul 03, 2018 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PurePoint...nice gesture
Replies: 6
Views: 1207

Re: PurePoint...nice gesture

Let us know what they send you on your birthday!
by k66
Mon Jul 02, 2018 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jason Zweig: Congrats Investors! You’re Behaving Less Badly Than Usual
Replies: 17
Views: 3385

Re: Jason Zweig: Congrats Investors! You’re Behaving Less Badly Than Usual

It is always a good read from Mr. Zweig; thanks for posting the article.

I would be interested to see the decile or quintile results from the same group. Does the performance of the top 10% or 20% of investors actually improve to the point of developing a positive gap w.r.t. the funds studied? Presumably, these top-tier results would be the result of either "smarter" investing (e.g. purposeful rebalancing) or gifted market-timing.
by k66
Wed Jun 27, 2018 2:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a reversion to the mean for everything?
Replies: 29
Views: 2370

Re: Is there a reversion to the mean for everything?

I only see reversion to the mean (RTM) as something that is attributable to a function when

a) it is cyclical, and
b) its boundary conditions remain static.

Market behavior is pseudo-cyclical and it's boundary conditions are not necessarily static. RTM is fun to talk about but as others have noted, is not anything that is predicable (or guaranteed).