Search found 454 matches

by k66
Sun Jul 15, 2018 8:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to determine weights within portfolio
Replies: 29
Views: 1400

Re: How to determine weights within portfolio

I've been searching for a way to determine the optimum weighting of individual securities within a portfolio assuming the stock/bond ratio has already been determined. As an example, in the following portfolio I wish the 3 stock market ETFs to equal 75% of the total, but how do I determine the indi...
by k66
Tue Jul 10, 2018 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing for Income Vs. Taking Withdrawals?
Replies: 6
Views: 660

Re: Investing for Income Vs. Taking Withdrawals?

From the same author: 'Dividend Growth Investing' without the Dividend Growth Colour me sceptical, but I think he is just advocating reinvestment of dividend(s) earned to create compounding growth. Not an original idea and central to any portfolio strategy. If you are in the process of withdrawing, ...
by k66
Thu Jul 05, 2018 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks
Replies: 198
Views: 18067

Re: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks

“Our expectation at the moment is that you won’t have any real return from U.S. equities over the next 10 years,” said Morningstar’s Dan Kemp at a company event Wednesday in London. In the chart he shared below, the black line is pretty close to zero for American stocks. Is it finally time to go an...
by k66
Tue Jul 03, 2018 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PurePoint...nice gesture
Replies: 6
Views: 676

Re: PurePoint...nice gesture

Let us know what they send you on your birthday!
by k66
Mon Jul 02, 2018 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jason Zweig: Congrats Investors! You’re Behaving Less Badly Than Usual
Replies: 17
Views: 2932

Re: Jason Zweig: Congrats Investors! You’re Behaving Less Badly Than Usual

It is always a good read from Mr. Zweig; thanks for posting the article. I would be interested to see the decile or quintile results from the same group. Does the performance of the top 10% or 20% of investors actually improve to the point of developing a positive gap w.r.t. the funds studied? Presu...
by k66
Wed Jun 27, 2018 2:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a reversion to the mean for everything?
Replies: 29
Views: 1783

Re: Is there a reversion to the mean for everything?

I only see reversion to the mean (RTM) as something that is attributable to a function when a) it is cyclical, and b) its boundary conditions remain static. Market behavior is pseudo-cyclical and it's boundary conditions are not necessarily static. RTM is fun to talk about but as others have noted, ...
by k66
Mon Jun 25, 2018 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Now With Down 2018 Market
Replies: 32
Views: 6253

Re: What Now With Down 2018 Market

Given my older age of 78 and still employed I have been very cautious about placing too much of my funds in the market . In January, I invested in theVanguard Retirement Income Fund that has been down for most of the year and now slightly up. Given the drastic and somewhat unexplainable shifts in t...
by k66
Mon Jun 25, 2018 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does technical data matter?
Replies: 16
Views: 799

Re: Does technical data matter?

My interest in Technical Analysis completely evaporated once I saw how completely subjective it was. I once tried to read an into to TA, but couldn't even complete the 2nd chapter because it was so ridiculous. It really is an exercise in finding animal shapes in clouds. Any blue squiggly line could ...
by k66
Tue Jun 19, 2018 9:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When everyone invests passively...
Replies: 10
Views: 1849

Re: When everyone invests passively...

To me this is somewhat like Vegas. As long as greed drives people to think they can beat the house, those people will keep losing money and providing the capital to keep building those big hotels. That behavior benefits me because I don’t gamble but can enjoy everything else Vegas has to offer. The...
by k66
Tue Jun 19, 2018 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6683
Views: 1450375

Re: Anyone buying today?

I only buy on days that the market is open. That is my strictest rule... after that, I don't care whether the market is up, down, or corkscrewing sideways--I just buy.
by k66
Thu Jun 14, 2018 5:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PUTW to diversify sequence of returns
Replies: 13
Views: 841

Re: PUTW to diversify sequence of returns

Hello Bogleheads, I'm seeking advice on using PUTW to diversify sequence of return risk on equities. I am thinking of substituting this for a modest portion of my domestic equities in a 3 fund investing approach (Domestic equities, global equities, and debt). It makes intuitive sense to me that PUT...
by k66
Sat Jun 09, 2018 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High priced stocks that turned out to be great investments?
Replies: 4
Views: 777

Re: High priced stocks that turned out to be great investments?

Some of the Nifty Fifty have done well.

Overall, as a group, they have slightly underperformed the larger US-market indeces--at least for a time period considered in this paper:

The Nifty Fifty Re-Revisited
by k66
Fri Jun 08, 2018 8:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $1M Question
Replies: 38
Views: 4928

Re: $1M Question

With utmost sincerity, a dummy with $12k (me) walks up to you and asks: Via investing of any kind, what can I do to make $1M in one year from now? OK, so now that we have generally ascribed this as a preposterous dream on the surface (i.e. investing $12k with a $1M return in 365 days or less), let'...
by k66
Thu May 24, 2018 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio for an elderly person in poor health?
Replies: 8
Views: 911

Re: Portfolio for an elderly person in poor health?

What is her expected bequeathment request? Does she have an expectation to leave any significant amount to heirs or charity? Assuming maximum annual expenditures of $72k (i.e. $6k per month), with a $1.7M portfolio, that implies 4.2% per annum withdrawals. That is easily sustainable for the 12 to 13...
by k66
Wed May 16, 2018 9:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Challenge: guess the effect of rebalancing (by interval or bands) in 2008-2009
Replies: 35
Views: 3983

Re: Challenge: guess the effect of rebalancing in 2008-2009

I really only started taking classes in early 2008 and admittedly wasn't able to fully appreciate the lessons that were taught during the 2007 to 2008 semesters until much later. Still, I think I picked up some of the important class notes since then, but I'm just hoping to get 33% on this pop-quizz...
by k66
Sat May 05, 2018 10:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chart: When 90% of the Stock Market is Indexed
Replies: 20
Views: 2797

Re: Chart: When 90% of the Stock Market is Indexed

Example 1: P = 50% x 10% = 5% A = 50% x 100% = 50% P/(P+A) = 5/55 = 9% (approx) Example 2: P =90% x 10% = 9% A = 10% x 100% = 10% P/(P+A) = 9/19 = 47% (approx) Yes the total share of passive trading increases w.r.t. total trading as passive assets grows (in this example from 9% to 47% while AUM(p) g...
by k66
Sat May 05, 2018 9:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Replies: 154
Views: 11363

Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

In addition to learning about the futility of predicting markets, it seems we are also learning the virtues of good oral hygiene...!
by k66
Fri May 04, 2018 8:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me understand the "25x/30x cost of living" retirement goal numbers?
Replies: 17
Views: 1909

Re: Help me understand the "25x/30x cost of living" retirement goal numbers?

... That being said, the '4% rule' is merely a guideline and should not be taken literally as a withdrawal strategy. Virtually everyone uses a flexible approach, whereby they withdraw more when their portfolio does well and less when it does poorly. ... This is so important to understand and glad y...
by k66
Thu Apr 26, 2018 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Currency Risk for ETFs [Canada]
Replies: 37
Views: 1917

Re: Currency Risk for ETFs [Canada]

... and issues like taxation, MER costs and spread fees are vital things to consider. Over the course of a few decades, the two funds should have very similar returns. I note you said taxation, MER, spread fees are "vital" things to consider when you're looking at holding a US ETF directly or indir...
by k66
Tue Apr 24, 2018 8:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fun Money
Replies: 45
Views: 3164

Re: Fun Money

I also have 0% allocated to "fun money" and find the idea not just strange but entirely counterproductive. If our low-fee indexed-based investing style is indeed a bland diet, then the dessert surely comes in the form of extra returns.
by k66
Wed Apr 18, 2018 12:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Things have changed, so what do I do?
Replies: 14
Views: 2249

Re: Things have changed, so what do I do?

1. I retired 7 years ago--so I presumably have missed the 'sequence of returns risk' 2. I downsized last year--so my expenses are much lower than when I first retired and I ended up with an appreciable amount from my home sale 3. I'm getting a bit older so the need for extravagant vacations or expe...
by k66
Tue Apr 17, 2018 11:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tencent now largest non-US stock
Replies: 40
Views: 5094

Re: Tencent now largest non-US stock

fortyofforty wrote:
Tue Apr 17, 2018 9:29 am
I'm not sure how much we can trust anything reported about a Chinese company. They have the ability to fudge their numbers.
And "we" can't--or don't?!

The Ten Worst Corporate Accounting Scandals of All Time
by k66
Mon Apr 16, 2018 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Firstrade Makes a Splash With 700 Commission-Free ETFs (Including Vanguard!)
Replies: 12
Views: 1811

Re: Firstrade Makes a Splash With 700 Commission-Free ETFs (Including Vanguard!)

... It may not be obvious, but commission-free trades are more than just a marketing tool for discount brokers; they're also a way to make money. Charles Schwab (NYSE: SCHW) charges asset managers a fee to make their ETFs and mutual funds commission free, collecting about $0.19 in annual fees for e...
by k66
Sat Apr 07, 2018 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your AA, given your age? and, Why?
Replies: 163
Views: 13118

Re: What is your AA, given your age? and, Why?

I am early 50s and

1. Maintain a 75:25 portfolio,

2. Have no immediate concern that it needs to be adjusted going forward to Retirement, and

3. Glide rules don't really appeal to me.
by k66
Thu Mar 22, 2018 12:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I’m looking for a word...
Replies: 114
Views: 9899

Re: I’m looking for a word...

Fluid Mechanics uses the terms Laminar and Non-laminar or Turbulent flows to describe the difference between perfectly flowing (idealized) fluids/gasses and when that same flow becomes disrupted and "chaotic" under increased flow rate. The gross properties of the system can still be determined (i.e....
by k66
Tue Mar 20, 2018 4:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you Continue to invest even in down market??
Replies: 54
Views: 6706

Re: Do you Continue to invest even in down market??

OP: Should I/we continue to invest in a down market?

I do... and I will make you an offer: Send me any money that you don't want to invest while the market is down and I will return it without interest once the market is up.
by k66
Mon Mar 05, 2018 9:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it easier to 'know' when the US Total Market Index will fall/stagnate (versus rise) over a period of several days?
Replies: 14
Views: 1514

Re: Is it easier to 'know' when the US Total Market Index will fall/stagnate (versus rise) over a period of several days

Edited to simplify: In late January/early February 2018, there was a sense that the US Stock Market Index would continue fall for at least several days (and it did). Is a falling market more accurate to predict than a rising one over the short term? I would say this: A falling market is at least as...
by k66
Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone realize how special last year was?!
Replies: 38
Views: 6124

Re: Does anyone realize how special last year was?!

Excluding new contributions, my portfolio achieved a month/month "new high" seven times in 2017. For 2016 and 2015, it was five times and twice respectively. Since I have been tracking these data (~8 years), the average is ~44% (or typically 5.3 months per year with new highs). Here's to another '17...
by k66
Mon Feb 26, 2018 5:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Amount of stocks before retirment
Replies: 25
Views: 3149

Re: Amount of stocks before retirment

A lot of this is dependent on personal psychology. One of the things that makes me sweat is the idea of having a high stock allocation at the same time as paying for end of life care. This would be generally warranted I think, except for the fact that "rising glide path" allocation scenarios (e.g. ...
by k66
Mon Feb 26, 2018 2:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Personal rules for buying in a down market?
Replies: 55
Views: 4266

Re: Personal rules for buying in a down market?

I purchase when I have sufficient free cash--Regardless. (it's a pretty simple rule).

Hindsight will tell me if "I got a deal" or not--but I don't care really. The most important part of the process (while accumulating) is to buy, not to speculate.
by k66
Mon Feb 12, 2018 11:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expecting a crash...but staying the course
Replies: 8
Views: 1729

Re: Expecting a crash...but staying the course

If you look at the stock charts, it has been a straight line up for a very long time. I sometimes have urges to pull out of the market and wait for prices to get slashed. But I always go back to these words from Charlie Ellis. He explains (summarized and paraphrased): The historical statistics show...
by k66
Mon Feb 12, 2018 11:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Random conversations regarding money
Replies: 44
Views: 5052

Re: Random conversations regarding money

Last night I was at a gathering and found myself in a conversation regarding money and investing with another individual. He asked about what I invest in, etc and I told him, " mostly the US total stock market." He then proceeded to tell me how he only invests in physical gold bars, tax-deferred an...
by k66
Fri Feb 09, 2018 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you sell your investments when they start dropping? When should you invest during this market correction?
Replies: 52
Views: 4702

Re: Should you sell your investments when they start dropping? When should you invest during this market correction?

Should you sell your investments when they start dropping? When should you invest during this market correction? I don't see why not sell now and wait for the market to drop more and then buy them again. Will the market go up as fast as it is going down? (I am kind of playing devil's advocate here)...
by k66
Tue Jan 16, 2018 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A 4% move in the Dow and S&P in 12 days? Seems odd
Replies: 94
Views: 8269

Re: A 4% move in the Dow and S&P in 12 days? Seems odd

Recent >5% jump-ups in the S&P 500 (over a 2-week period):

+7.6% in July 2016
+6.5% in Feb 2016
+7.2% in Oct 2015
+5.1% in Feb 2015
+7.1% in Oct 2014
+5.7% in Feb 2014
+6.0% in Oct 2013
+5.0% in Jul 2013
...

The list goes on (I only searched back to 2013). I guess it's as odd as you want it to be.
by k66
Tue Jan 09, 2018 5:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What your 2017 returns would look like if you listened to these financial websites
Replies: 18
Views: 4005

Re: What your 2017 returns would look like if you listened to these financial websites

And will Barron's persist with good picking skills? Make your bets accordingly!
by k66
Fri Jan 05, 2018 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DOW breaks 25,000 for first time ever
Replies: 55
Views: 5999

Re: DOW breaks 25,000 for first time ever

... I consider the stock market a random walk more than anything else. Gains are gains. They require no reversion to the mean. If they did, the market would account for that and revert right now. Good point: I think people often forget, or erroneously believe, that the data are a function of "the m...
by k66
Fri Jan 05, 2018 12:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DOW breaks 25,000 for first time ever
Replies: 55
Views: 5999

Re: DOW breaks 25,000 for first time ever

"Anyone still got a Dow 10k hat?" Actually, I donated my Dow 10,000 hat a few years back, I purchased the hat at the NYSE in 1999, and I plan to drop by the NYSE in 2019 to purchase a new Dow xx,000 hat. Thanks for reading ~cfs~ I'd like to see a hat--a ball-cap, top-hat, whatever--that has a scrol...
by k66
Fri Jan 05, 2018 12:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Replies: 154
Views: 11363

Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Attesting to my form entry of 1726.36.
by k66
Wed Jan 03, 2018 10:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2018 Hedge Fund contest
Replies: 155
Views: 14827

Re: 2018 Hedge Fund contest

Agggm wrote:
Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:44 pm
Name: Luna

Long:
Facebook
Apple
Amazon
Netflix
Google
A maximum of three positions long (or short) via rule #2... also there are two different share classes for Google/Alphabet (GOOGL and GOOG).
by k66
Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk tolerance / Capacity & Can I sleep at night
Replies: 9
Views: 859

Re: Risk tolerance / Capacity & Can I sleep at night

These are interesting topics and thank you goshenBogle for the links. Tangentially, structural engineers have always utilized a Demand (D) vs Capacity (C) methodology when designing structural members. Prior to Limit States Design methodology (LSD, or as practiced as in the US as Load and Resistance...
by k66
Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Replies: 154
Views: 11363

Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

jpelder wrote:
Wed Jan 03, 2018 10:16 am
3100, Bob (in spreadsheet, too)

We're doing 'Price is Right" rules, right?
You can guess "over" and still win -- it is "closest to the mark" that counts.
by k66
Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2018 Hedge Fund contest
Replies: 155
Views: 14827

Re: 2018 Hedge Fund contest

Alas, the "Rogue Won" fund ended 2017 without achieving a final definitive victory and, as a result, will find itself meeting a cruel end... This year's entry however is intended to bring new life--and a smattering of robo-investing--to investors looking for a brighter future. Trade Blunder 20/49 wi...
by k66
Wed Dec 20, 2017 2:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Some up some down
Replies: 2
Views: 550

Re: Some up some down

Based on today's approx. price for VTI (ballpark $138), the Q4-DY is 0.49%.

Likewise for VXUS (ballpark $56.50), the Q4-DY appears to be 0.95%.

Stocking-stuffers for sure.
by k66
Wed Dec 13, 2017 8:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Will Indexers Affect A Downturn---or the functioning of the market in the long-run?
Replies: 30
Views: 3482

Re: How Will Indexers Affect A Downturn---or the functioning of the market in the long-run?

I’m inclined to believe that although indexing may have become more popular (both in terms of total dollar invested per individual and the total number of individuals utilizing indexing), it’s not necessarily the case that all indexers will toe the line during a downturn. I think that there will be ...
by k66
Mon Dec 11, 2017 11:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the Top!
Replies: 29
Views: 3040

Re: Call the Top!

thangngo wrote:
Mon Dec 11, 2017 10:12 pm
Will you put your money on it? Or is it just for fun?
I'll take 3775.00
by k66
Fri Dec 08, 2017 12:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the top! - Bitcoin
Replies: 182
Views: 19663

Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Bitcoin $36,000
by k66
Fri Dec 08, 2017 12:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the Top!
Replies: 29
Views: 3040

Re: Call the Top!

Is it closest without going over? Or is it ok to go over if you are still closest? Kalo Yes, the winning guess would be the "closest without going over". A guess that is higher than what turns out to be the next peak would otherwise be eligible for the next iteration of the contest (should you stil...
by k66
Thu Dec 07, 2017 11:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the Top!
Replies: 29
Views: 3040

Re: Call the Top!

What is the closing date to make your predictions? What is the ending date - where you call it done and declare a winner? ... There is no preset closing date except by arriving at a 20% or greater downturn. Upon arriving at that point, the person with a guess closest to the previous high would have...
by k66
Thu Dec 07, 2017 7:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the Top!
Replies: 29
Views: 3040

Call the Top!

Given that there seems to be a persistent feeling (in the general public at least), that the market is over-valued, bubblish, and/or over-due for a correction; it might be fun to have a "Call the Top" contest. Proposal: Call the peak value of the S&P 500 (up to two decimals) that it achieves prior t...
by k66
Thu Nov 30, 2017 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rolling Returns: A Powerful Analytical Tool
Replies: 24
Views: 2141

Re: Rolling Returns: A Powerful Analytical Tool

If I were to be concerned with any type of return/performance analysis, I would be more inclined to want to see an exponential moving average (EMA) where more recent data are weighted higher than the older data.

But honestly I’m not inclined to want to look at any type of fund returns.