Search found 482 matches

by k66
Sun Sep 09, 2018 9:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Commodities have never been cheaper - time to buy?
Replies: 42
Views: 4180

Re: Commodities have never been cheaper - time to buy?

There does seem to be a small group of ETFs that apparently track the S&P GSCI, but they aren't necessarily cheap ER-wise:

S&P GSCI Total Return Index – ETF Tracker

With the exception of BCI (0.29%), the rest have ERs between 0.5% and over 1%.
by k66
Sat Sep 08, 2018 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Rigged Horse Race
Replies: 2
Views: 1299

Re: Larry Swedroe: Rigged Horse Race

An interesting read -- thanks. One thing that isn't immediately clear to me, either in Mr. Swedroe's article or the original paper, is the potential costs associated with moving and out of funds for the periods indicated. For instance, some funds are only on the list for a few years and others come ...
by k66
Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does market timing have to be perfect to be effective?
Replies: 35
Views: 2448

Re: Does market timing have to be perfect to be effective?

Does Market Timing (MT) have to be perfect to be effective? No. Staying the Course (STC) leaves a lot of money on the table (w.r.t. perfect MT), but it's really difficult to get a MT scheme that works well enough and/or consistently eough to beat STC (and by "scheme", I mean some type of systemized ...
by k66
Wed Sep 05, 2018 4:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Safeguarding Your Wealth From The Effects Of Cognitive Decline"
Replies: 52
Views: 4858

Re: "Safeguarding Your Wealth From The Effects Of Cognitive Decline"

With respect to the "Fiduciary Oath" (as referenced in the article) and copied here for reference: To what degree is this really legally enforceable (as suggested in the article)? PUTTING YOUR INTERESTS FIRST  I believe in placing your best interests first. Therefore, I am proud to commit to th...
by k66
Mon Sep 03, 2018 5:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: (FREE!) Art Collecting Event... what's the catch?
Replies: 11
Views: 1208

Re: (FREE!) Art Collecting Event... what's the catch?

RickBoglehead wrote:
Mon Sep 03, 2018 3:37 pm
Park West is big in this...
Park West looks like a familiar name.

Thanks for all of the replies and insights--they have been useful and helpful.
by k66
Sun Sep 02, 2018 9:36 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: (FREE!) Art Collecting Event... what's the catch?
Replies: 11
Views: 1208

(FREE!) Art Collecting Event... what's the catch?

Several years ago, my mother took a cruise and enjoyed it immensely. As you may know, there is often an opportunity to partake in an art auction on board and have your purchased pieces shipped to your door after you return home. My mother did buy a few small pieces during one of these auctions and o...
by k66
Thu Aug 30, 2018 11:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Sequence of Returns Risk even make sense for early retirees?
Replies: 10
Views: 1256

Re: Does Sequence of Returns Risk even make sense for early retirees?

All returns have an effect on the eventual success or failure of a portfolio which is being systematically drawn down over a period of time regardless of the length of that time. The effect of any single return is exponentially related to its occurrence in the progression of returns--those that occu...
by k66
Wed Aug 29, 2018 8:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the Top!
Replies: 80
Views: 8860

Re: Call the Top!

by k66
Mon Aug 27, 2018 8:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the Top!
Replies: 80
Views: 8860

Re: Call the Top!

Crisium wrote:
Mon Aug 27, 2018 2:18 pm
My analysis indicates 3333.33
It seems that in this case, the 3's have come in pairs; USGrant previously called 3333.33 last year.

Did you have another pick?
by k66
Mon Aug 27, 2018 1:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pensions and retirement savings rate
Replies: 30
Views: 2518

Re: Pensions and retirement savings rate

Agreed. I guess my question is more about practical thoughts on retirement saving in light of also having a pension. Are you able to calculate what that DB pension will be worth at full retirement? You don't have to post the number here, but obviously you want to be able to understand what that pen...
by k66
Sun Aug 26, 2018 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the Top!
Replies: 80
Views: 8860

Re: Call the Top!

Edit to add: Current Leader is gogleheads.orb with 2718.28 (...a natural choice I assume) Very well done there. If no one has taken 3141.59, I will try that. That little slice of pi was previously taken by rkhusky. Do you have another choice? 2874.69 I say we're standing on the apex right now. ... ...
by k66
Fri Aug 24, 2018 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the Top!
Replies: 80
Views: 8860

Re: Call the Top!

Ladies and Gentlemen: Start your engines! The S&P 500 notched a new high today @ 2874.69 besting the January 26 high of 2872.87. Since that time we've had two trips to -10% (Feb 8th and April 2nd at 2581 and 2582 respectively), but not enough to trigger a -20% Bear. With that, the contest is reopene...
by k66
Thu Aug 23, 2018 11:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Only Investment Guide You'll Ever Need" Kindle daily deal
Replies: 16
Views: 3622

Re: "The Only Investment Guide You'll Ever Need" Kindle daily deal

linenfort wrote:
Thu Aug 23, 2018 8:10 am
Turned out to not even be worth $2. :(
Maybe it was better when it first came out.
Do you have any particular thoughts that led to the :(-rating?
by k66
Mon Aug 20, 2018 9:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dollar cost averaging frequency
Replies: 10
Views: 995

Re: Dollar cost averaging frequency

I accounting class 20 years ago I learned that frequency of interest compounding matters...more frequently is always better, but compounding daily vs. monthly doesn't make that big of a difference, practically. However, my online bank compounds daily; I assume modern technology makes this essy. Wha...
by k66
Mon Aug 20, 2018 8:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Active’s Surprising Survival
Replies: 11
Views: 1040

Re: Larry Swedroe: Active’s Surprising Survival

It's always worthwhile to read one of Larry's pieces. Some claim if most everyone goes passive, active will become more easy. I forget their rationale. It’s because active investors keep markets efficient. The more inefficiencies (I.e. stocks either over or under valued), the more opportunities for ...
by k66
Mon Aug 20, 2018 8:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Slash your retirement Risk
Replies: 10
Views: 2368

Re: Slash your retirement Risk

Hey all has anyone read this book and folks that may have thoughts on his system as discussed in the book ? Thanks Is this the book you are referring to? "Slash Your Retirement Risk", Chris Cook Slash Your Retirement Risk is your step-by-step guide to create a retirement portfolio that will provide...
by k66
Sat Aug 18, 2018 9:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do You Believe Diversification Is The Right Strategy Only If The Investment Horizon Is Long?
Replies: 28
Views: 2171

Re: Do You Believe Diversification Is The Right Strategy Only If The Investment Horizon Is Long?

That is a good question. For myself, I have two saving streams that are not specifically "long-term", so I suppose they could be considered short(er) term. One is for my daughter's university studies and will be depleted in the next two to three years. The other is a simple "general all purpose" sav...
by k66
Thu Aug 16, 2018 9:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck
Replies: 95
Views: 4265

Re: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck

And why wouldn’t Markets spend some time below the Mean PE? It is a mean after all. This is why the CAPE model appears to be broken. It's been above its mean 98% of the time for the past 26 years. And it's not like it didn't have chances to revert. We had two stock crashes in that time period, one ...
by k66
Wed Aug 15, 2018 9:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mistake done [Europe - Have you ever regretted a trade that you made?]
Replies: 13
Views: 1516

Re: Mistake done [Europe - Have you ever regretted a trade that you made?]

Hello leachim -- Welcome to the forum. Don't worry about daily or intra-daily movements. It is all noise. Concern yourself with preparing an IPS (or Investment Policy Statement--a roadmap of how you want to execute your portfolio own plan) and building a portfolio that you understand, one which will...
by k66
Wed Aug 15, 2018 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Take your canes out in Emerging Markets
Replies: 30
Views: 4720

Re: Take your canes out in Emerging Markets

Now Hear This: Load torpedo bay "EM"; Commence Market Timing at will.
by k66
Wed Aug 15, 2018 12:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Magic Formula Results
Replies: 20
Views: 2054

Re: Magic Formula Results

Has anyone really tried the Magic Formula, from Grennblatt's "The Little Book That Beats the Market"? ... As of 8/14/2011 I have average 8.91% annualized. Over this period, the S&P made 6.16%, the DOW 6.27%, and the NASDAQ 10.55%. I beat the S&P and DOW, but not the NASDAQ. I could have just bought...
by k66
Tue Aug 14, 2018 7:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Magic Formula Results
Replies: 20
Views: 2054

Re: Magic Formula Results

Has anyone really tried the Magic Formula, from Grennblatt's "The Little Book That Beats the Market"? ... As of 8/14/2011 I have average 8.91% annualized. Over this period, the S&P made 6.16%, the DOW 6.27%, and the NASDAQ 10.55%. I beat the S&P and DOW, but not the NASDAQ. I could have just bought...
by k66
Tue Aug 14, 2018 8:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Very confused with the current market
Replies: 112
Views: 12883

Re: Very confused with the current market

Interesting thread the OP started 5 years ago... https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=115916&p=1687411#p1687411 I have to wonder when the OP was ever certain about the market? you are right, I missed some good opportunities. an interest post from vanguard: https://www.nytimes.com/20...
by k66
Mon Aug 13, 2018 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there such a thing as bull or bear markets?
Replies: 6
Views: 1088

Re: Is there such a thing as bull or bear markets?

... And the current bull market is only a couple of years old . Classification challenges like this one cry out for an objective definition. One firm that has responded to the clarion call is Ned Davis Research, defining a bull market as a 30% rise in the DJIA or the Value Line Geometric Index afte...
by k66
Fri Aug 10, 2018 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there such a thing as bull or bear markets?
Replies: 6
Views: 1088

Re: Is there such a thing as bull or bear markets?

... And the current bull market is only a couple of years old . Classification challenges like this one cry out for an objective definition. One firm that has responded to the clarion call is Ned Davis Research, defining a bull market as a 30% rise in the DJIA or the Value Line Geometric Index afte...
by k66
Wed Aug 08, 2018 5:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simple Retirement Model of Withdraw Rate, Return Sequence, & Asset Allocation
Replies: 5
Views: 1572

Re: Simple Retirement Model of Withdraw Rate, Return Sequence, & Asset Allocation

... Here are the ten worst 3-year periods -- which might be more meaningful to investors. During the worst one, 1929-1931, the S&P 500 fell 55% in real terms. (The fall was bigger in nominal terms, but the CPI declined almost 15% over these three years.) ---- Change Over Next ---- Next Year 1 Year ...
by k66
Tue Aug 07, 2018 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simple Retirement Model of Withdraw Rate, Return Sequence, & Asset Allocation
Replies: 5
Views: 1572

Re: Simple Retirement Model of Withdraw Rate, Return Sequence, & Asset Allocation

Thanks #Cruncher. Just as a cursory review of S&P 500 Returns (including dividends, but in nominal terms), Damodaran's data suggest a maximum single year drawdown of -43.83% (1931). Annual Returns on Stock, T.Bonds and T.Bills: 1928 - Current Using Shiller's CPI data, the real largest drawdown for t...
by k66
Thu Jul 26, 2018 9:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “The China Hustle”
Replies: 3
Views: 595

Re: “The China Hustle”

Do the Hustle...

China Hustle Movie [Doc]
by k66
Sun Jul 15, 2018 8:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to determine weights within portfolio
Replies: 29
Views: 1605

Re: How to determine weights within portfolio

I've been searching for a way to determine the optimum weighting of individual securities within a portfolio assuming the stock/bond ratio has already been determined. As an example, in the following portfolio I wish the 3 stock market ETFs to equal 75% of the total, but how do I determine the indi...
by k66
Tue Jul 10, 2018 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing for Income Vs. Taking Withdrawals?
Replies: 6
Views: 723

Re: Investing for Income Vs. Taking Withdrawals?

From the same author: 'Dividend Growth Investing' without the Dividend Growth Colour me sceptical, but I think he is just advocating reinvestment of dividend(s) earned to create compounding growth. Not an original idea and central to any portfolio strategy. If you are in the process of withdrawing, ...
by k66
Thu Jul 05, 2018 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks
Replies: 198
Views: 19331

Re: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks

“Our expectation at the moment is that you won’t have any real return from U.S. equities over the next 10 years,” said Morningstar’s Dan Kemp at a company event Wednesday in London. In the chart he shared below, the black line is pretty close to zero for American stocks. Is it finally time to go an...
by k66
Tue Jul 03, 2018 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PurePoint...nice gesture
Replies: 6
Views: 789

Re: PurePoint...nice gesture

Let us know what they send you on your birthday!
by k66
Mon Jul 02, 2018 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jason Zweig: Congrats Investors! You’re Behaving Less Badly Than Usual
Replies: 17
Views: 3033

Re: Jason Zweig: Congrats Investors! You’re Behaving Less Badly Than Usual

It is always a good read from Mr. Zweig; thanks for posting the article. I would be interested to see the decile or quintile results from the same group. Does the performance of the top 10% or 20% of investors actually improve to the point of developing a positive gap w.r.t. the funds studied? Presu...
by k66
Wed Jun 27, 2018 2:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a reversion to the mean for everything?
Replies: 29
Views: 1852

Re: Is there a reversion to the mean for everything?

I only see reversion to the mean (RTM) as something that is attributable to a function when a) it is cyclical, and b) its boundary conditions remain static. Market behavior is pseudo-cyclical and it's boundary conditions are not necessarily static. RTM is fun to talk about but as others have noted, ...
by k66
Mon Jun 25, 2018 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Now With Down 2018 Market
Replies: 32
Views: 6424

Re: What Now With Down 2018 Market

Given my older age of 78 and still employed I have been very cautious about placing too much of my funds in the market . In January, I invested in theVanguard Retirement Income Fund that has been down for most of the year and now slightly up. Given the drastic and somewhat unexplainable shifts in t...
by k66
Mon Jun 25, 2018 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does technical data matter?
Replies: 16
Views: 835

Re: Does technical data matter?

My interest in Technical Analysis completely evaporated once I saw how completely subjective it was. I once tried to read an into to TA, but couldn't even complete the 2nd chapter because it was so ridiculous. It really is an exercise in finding animal shapes in clouds. Any blue squiggly line could ...
by k66
Tue Jun 19, 2018 9:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When everyone invests passively...
Replies: 10
Views: 1923

Re: When everyone invests passively...

To me this is somewhat like Vegas. As long as greed drives people to think they can beat the house, those people will keep losing money and providing the capital to keep building those big hotels. That behavior benefits me because I don’t gamble but can enjoy everything else Vegas has to offer. The...
by k66
Tue Jun 19, 2018 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6836
Views: 1492360

Re: Anyone buying today?

I only buy on days that the market is open. That is my strictest rule... after that, I don't care whether the market is up, down, or corkscrewing sideways--I just buy.
by k66
Thu Jun 14, 2018 5:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PUTW to diversify sequence of returns
Replies: 13
Views: 900

Re: PUTW to diversify sequence of returns

Hello Bogleheads, I'm seeking advice on using PUTW to diversify sequence of return risk on equities. I am thinking of substituting this for a modest portion of my domestic equities in a 3 fund investing approach (Domestic equities, global equities, and debt). It makes intuitive sense to me that PUT...
by k66
Sat Jun 09, 2018 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High priced stocks that turned out to be great investments?
Replies: 4
Views: 803

Re: High priced stocks that turned out to be great investments?

Some of the Nifty Fifty have done well.

Overall, as a group, they have slightly underperformed the larger US-market indeces--at least for a time period considered in this paper:

The Nifty Fifty Re-Revisited
by k66
Fri Jun 08, 2018 8:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $1M Question
Replies: 38
Views: 5053

Re: $1M Question

With utmost sincerity, a dummy with $12k (me) walks up to you and asks: Via investing of any kind, what can I do to make $1M in one year from now? OK, so now that we have generally ascribed this as a preposterous dream on the surface (i.e. investing $12k with a $1M return in 365 days or less), let'...
by k66
Thu May 24, 2018 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio for an elderly person in poor health?
Replies: 8
Views: 978

Re: Portfolio for an elderly person in poor health?

What is her expected bequeathment request? Does she have an expectation to leave any significant amount to heirs or charity? Assuming maximum annual expenditures of $72k (i.e. $6k per month), with a $1.7M portfolio, that implies 4.2% per annum withdrawals. That is easily sustainable for the 12 to 13...
by k66
Wed May 16, 2018 9:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Challenge: guess the effect of rebalancing (by interval or bands) in 2008-2009
Replies: 35
Views: 4162

Re: Challenge: guess the effect of rebalancing in 2008-2009

I really only started taking classes in early 2008 and admittedly wasn't able to fully appreciate the lessons that were taught during the 2007 to 2008 semesters until much later. Still, I think I picked up some of the important class notes since then, but I'm just hoping to get 33% on this pop-quizz...
by k66
Sat May 05, 2018 10:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chart: When 90% of the Stock Market is Indexed
Replies: 20
Views: 2904

Re: Chart: When 90% of the Stock Market is Indexed

Example 1: P = 50% x 10% = 5% A = 50% x 100% = 50% P/(P+A) = 5/55 = 9% (approx) Example 2: P =90% x 10% = 9% A = 10% x 100% = 10% P/(P+A) = 9/19 = 47% (approx) Yes the total share of passive trading increases w.r.t. total trading as passive assets grows (in this example from 9% to 47% while AUM(p) g...
by k66
Sat May 05, 2018 9:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Replies: 154
Views: 11865

Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

In addition to learning about the futility of predicting markets, it seems we are also learning the virtues of good oral hygiene...!
by k66
Fri May 04, 2018 8:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me understand the "25x/30x cost of living" retirement goal numbers?
Replies: 17
Views: 2028

Re: Help me understand the "25x/30x cost of living" retirement goal numbers?

... That being said, the '4% rule' is merely a guideline and should not be taken literally as a withdrawal strategy. Virtually everyone uses a flexible approach, whereby they withdraw more when their portfolio does well and less when it does poorly. ... This is so important to understand and glad y...
by k66
Thu Apr 26, 2018 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Currency Risk for ETFs [Canada]
Replies: 37
Views: 2072

Re: Currency Risk for ETFs [Canada]

... and issues like taxation, MER costs and spread fees are vital things to consider. Over the course of a few decades, the two funds should have very similar returns. I note you said taxation, MER, spread fees are "vital" things to consider when you're looking at holding a US ETF directly or indir...
by k66
Tue Apr 24, 2018 8:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fun Money
Replies: 45
Views: 3246

Re: Fun Money

I also have 0% allocated to "fun money" and find the idea not just strange but entirely counterproductive. If our low-fee indexed-based investing style is indeed a bland diet, then the dessert surely comes in the form of extra returns.
by k66
Wed Apr 18, 2018 12:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Things have changed, so what do I do?
Replies: 14
Views: 2299

Re: Things have changed, so what do I do?

1. I retired 7 years ago--so I presumably have missed the 'sequence of returns risk' 2. I downsized last year--so my expenses are much lower than when I first retired and I ended up with an appreciable amount from my home sale 3. I'm getting a bit older so the need for extravagant vacations or expe...
by k66
Tue Apr 17, 2018 11:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tencent now largest non-US stock
Replies: 40
Views: 5211

Re: Tencent now largest non-US stock

fortyofforty wrote:
Tue Apr 17, 2018 9:29 am
I'm not sure how much we can trust anything reported about a Chinese company. They have the ability to fudge their numbers.
And "we" can't--or don't?!

The Ten Worst Corporate Accounting Scandals of All Time