Search found 144 matches

by zvez
Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Deploying your emergency fund to buy stocks? Think again.
Replies: 183
Views: 29685

Re: Deploying your emergency fund to buy stocks? Think again.

I find it amazing that anyone would consider using the emergency fund to buy equities ANYTIME. It's very much like the people when the market is high using credit cards to buy stock.
by zvez
Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1224
Views: 109026

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

. Do you honestly know what the difference between a 10% false rally and a 10% sustainable rally will be? If you went 75% into Cash a month ago you are either extremely lucky or had a lot of foresight did you share your prediction on here? It was purely luck that I went into all cash but I've spent...
by zvez
Wed Mar 18, 2020 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1224
Views: 109026

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Another day another Stock futures drop, hit 'limit down' halt, as extreme trading continues amid coronavirus crisis Looks like my new policy of buying 20k every other day and only buying the dips is paying off. Stretching out my buy in time a bit due to the abysmal way this is being handled and und...
by zvez
Mon Mar 16, 2020 5:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll - How much of a crash are you predicting?
Replies: 82
Views: 5508

Re: Poll - How much of a crash are you predicting?

vipertom1970 wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 5:16 pm
we reached the bottom today 3/16/2020, market already factored in the recession.
the bottom at least until tomorrow. ;)
by zvez
Mon Mar 16, 2020 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4005
Views: 306932

Re: Coronavirus and the market

FI4LIFE wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 2:21 pm
Give or take, we are down around 10% from March 2019 if that makes anyone feel better.
You have to go back to late 2017 for where the S&P 500 is trading now. It flew past Dec 18 low.
by zvez
Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So what does shutting down the US economy for a few months look like?
Replies: 200
Views: 15310

Re: So what does shutting down the US economy for a few months look like?

The CDC guidelines for testing were very similar to what Italy did, and we see how that worked out. Italy had had nearly 2k deaths for 24k confirmed cases. US is in a similar situation and cdc only just modified testing guidelines, we have no clue how many people have the virus. People keep pointing...
by zvez
Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fed Slashes Rates to Fight Coronavirus Slowdown WSJ 3/15/20
Replies: 396
Views: 20553

Re: Fed Slashes Rates to Fight Coronavirus Slowdown WSJ 3/15/20

can see the fiscal stimulus, but cutting rates to zero seems needless, it's not going to get people going out and spending anything until lockdown is over and the cases are declining. BUT trump has been pushing for negative interest rates for a long time, he got what he wanted. :(
by zvez
Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not even "The End of The beginning"
Replies: 37
Views: 5200

Re: It's not even "The End of The beginning"

Same boat but different approach. I am staying the course. I am 40e/60f (more like 30/70 at this point) so the collapse is buffered somewhat. The Thing is, if the wheels really come off, there will be almost nowhere to hide so I feel it is best to stick to a time tested strategy. Having said that, ...
by zvez
Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:44 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195789

Re: Coronavirus and the market

If we leave those with covid with the kind of medical help they had in 1918, I wonder how the mortality rate would change. I think that is the fear now. That when medical facilities are overwhelmed, we might have such a situation on our hands. That is certainly a factor, but thus far it doesn't app...
by zvez
Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:41 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195789

Re: Coronavirus and the market

I'm not here to discuss politics. My point is that what China did, and to a certain extent, what other countries like Singapore and Hong Kong did, are not easily replicable in Europe and US. Whether that is a function of politics, worldview, culture, I think we all have our own opinion. South Korea...
by zvez
Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:34 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195789

Re: Coronavirus and the market

unlike seasonal flu which is predictable and has been modeled for decades with an historical mortality of around 0.1%, The coronavirus is new and relatively unknown, it's impossible for epidemiologists to consistently modeled the trajectory of the pandemic. Going by the numbers thus far you're looki...
by zvez
Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. bonds in freefall
Replies: 82
Views: 11413

Re: U.S. bonds in freefall

VBILX is actually holding up quite well, it's trading at about the price it was in early feb. And last year was a great one for VBILX so I'm happy being there.
by zvez
Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not even "The End of The beginning"
Replies: 37
Views: 5200

Re: It's not even "The End of The beginning"

I sold off 75% of my assets to cash three weeks ago, I know market timing is a bad thing, but I'm retired and couldn't sleep nites with it tanking. I'm very happy I did.

It goes totally against boglehead philosophy, but when sanity returns to the world and the market I'll go back in.
by zvez
Mon Aug 12, 2019 7:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Vanguard ongoing glitches, August 12-13, 2019]
Replies: 256
Views: 18697

Re: Wellesley 56.05% drop today

no problem with peaking as long as you don't react and make changes.
Broken Man 1999 wrote:
Mon Aug 12, 2019 6:18 pm
Sounds like a lot of Bogleheads have been peeking! Tut! Tut! Might get some demerits for looking.

Broken Man 1999
by zvez
Mon Aug 12, 2019 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Vanguard ongoing glitches, August 12-13, 2019]
Replies: 256
Views: 18697

Re: [Why did my fund suddenly drop in value?]

yeah but that was the whole market, we're talking about a fund that is 50% bonds. That would equate to a market drop of almost 60%!
by zvez
Mon Aug 12, 2019 5:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Vanguard ongoing glitches, August 12-13, 2019]
Replies: 256
Views: 18697

Re: [Why did my fund suddenly drop in value?]

LOL, I think very few even hardcore stay the course bogleheads could tolerate a 29% drop in their investment in a single day. Same thing happened last year, fixed a couple hours later.
by zvez
Mon Aug 12, 2019 5:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Vanguard ongoing glitches, August 12-13, 2019]
Replies: 256
Views: 18697

Re: [Why did my fund suddenly drop in value?]

VTWNX dropped $9.37 today (29.5%) drop, guessing/hoping that's a glitch!! :)
by zvez
Mon Feb 25, 2019 6:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Why did my fund suddenly drop in value?]
Replies: 245
Views: 275565

Re: [Why did my fund suddenly drop in value?]

never mind, they fixed it.
by zvez
Mon Feb 25, 2019 6:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Why did my fund suddenly drop in value?]
Replies: 245
Views: 275565

Re: [Why did my fund suddenly drop in value?]

and again, it seems a glitch with share price on vanguard funds. VTWNX down $1.87 a share. Hope it's a mistake anyway.
by zvez
Mon Oct 15, 2018 5:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Huge drops in VTXVX and VTHRX [Vanguard Target Date Funds]
Replies: 54
Views: 6021

Re: [Why did my fund suddenly drop in value?]

just talked to vanguard the figures quoted are incorrect and they are working on fixing.
MTZ wrote:
Mon Oct 15, 2018 5:27 pm
yes, VTTHX down 7% today as well.. quite a one day drop for a TDF. Anyone know? :confused
by zvez
Mon Oct 15, 2018 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Huge drops in VTXVX and VTHRX [Vanguard Target Date Funds]
Replies: 54
Views: 6021

Re: [Why did my fund suddenly drop in value?]

just talked to vanguard who have been flooded with calls, and said it's incorrect and will be fixed. That's a relief!
by zvez
Mon Oct 15, 2018 5:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Huge drops in VTXVX and VTHRX [Vanguard Target Date Funds]
Replies: 54
Views: 6021

Huge drops in VTXVX and VTHRX [Vanguard Target Date Funds]

[Moved into a new thread from: [Why did my fund suddenly drop in value?] --admin LadyGeek]

can someone please explain why target fund vtwnx lost 12.84% or $3.99 a share today? I'm floored.
by zvez
Thu Oct 04, 2018 5:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Be Prepared For Losses
Replies: 150
Views: 22047

Re: Larry Swedroe: Be Prepared For Losses

in the case of hyperinflation of the US economy with the dollar being a world currency, where exactly would you go?
by zvez
Wed Oct 03, 2018 5:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. bonds in freefall
Replies: 82
Views: 11413

Re: U.S. bonds in freefall

and yet the talking heads continue to say inflation is tame and under control. Certainly not the case with interest rates rising significantly.
by zvez
Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best way to withdraw from traditional IRA
Replies: 8
Views: 1674

Re: Best way to withdraw from traditional IRA

ha! yeah, that was a senior moment my vanguard account is already linked to my bank.
by zvez
Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:25 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best way to withdraw from traditional IRA
Replies: 8
Views: 1674

Re: Best way to withdraw from traditional IRA

Thanks very much for the reply guys. It would seem it's just down to determining how many years in cash I'm comfortable with. I do like the thought of a short term bond fund to park some of that cash in as well, not as risky as leaving invested and yet would tend to generate more income than a MM.
by zvez
Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:20 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is it worth looking into 'put options'?
Replies: 10
Views: 1644

Re: Is it worth looking into 'put options'?

it's considered speculation and also would involve market timing and really isn't within the bogleheads buy and hold strategy.

I used to trade alot of option in the past before I moved everything into vanguard to make life simpler and risk smaller, it can be very rewarding but you can also lose.
by zvez
Mon Sep 04, 2017 5:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best way to withdraw from traditional IRA
Replies: 8
Views: 1674

Best way to withdraw from traditional IRA

I've done search on line as well as here and didn't find the answer I'm looking for. About 90% of my assets are now at vanguard (moved my 401ks from previous employers) in a traditional IRA. I'm retiring at 59 1/2 in two years time. My question. When I calculate how much I plan to withdraw monthly. ...
by zvez
Wed Jul 06, 2016 4:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Timing bond fund purchase?
Replies: 23
Views: 1838

Re: Timing bond fund purchase?

The only thing possibly to consider. For instance the VBTLX fund. If you want to get the full monthly dividend you have to invest on the first of the month or earlier. Otherwise it's pro-rated.
by zvez
Wed Jun 29, 2016 5:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those that "buy" during stock market downturns...
Replies: 158
Views: 14909

Re: For those that "buy" during stock market downturns...

Seems like market timing to me which is anathema to bogleheads?
by zvez
Fri Jun 03, 2016 7:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recession hitting within next twelve months...
Replies: 31
Views: 6350

Re: Recession hitting within next twelve months...

Only watch CNBC for entertainment purposes. Big mistake to listen to the talking heads.
by zvez
Sun May 29, 2016 7:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Books on Options
Replies: 57
Views: 4234

Re: Books on Options

You could consider covered call writing on the SPY you already own. You can do varying terms, generate income, not tying up capital, plus you get the dividends quarterly as well. Been doing this for years. The downside is the stock is called away. But then you just buy the stock back on weakness, be...
by zvez
Sun Mar 13, 2016 8:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 401k shut down, rolled over into traditional IRA
Replies: 4
Views: 758

Re: 401k shut down, rolled over into traditional IRA

yep pretty much what I was going to do. The real plus is around $200k was in PARHX (it was the half of the account I couldn't self manage due to our plan requirements) and it had an obscene expense ratio of around 1.2%, So now I can put ALL of the 401k into VXTX with it's fractional E/R so I'm up a ...
by zvez
Sun Mar 13, 2016 5:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 401k shut down, rolled over into traditional IRA
Replies: 4
Views: 758

401k shut down, rolled over into traditional IRA

SO I did a search and couldn't find a specific mention of this but I'm inept at searches. Our hospital was bought out, the new corporation terminated our 401k that was thru metlife. Metlife is rolling the funds over either to the new group (Wells Fargo). Looking at the limited fund choices (and self...
by zvez
Mon Nov 09, 2015 3:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 60/40 stock-and-bond portfolio mix is dead in 2016?
Replies: 34
Views: 10406

Re: The 60/40 stock-and-bond portfolio mix is dead in 2016?

glad I 'm not the only one that thought this article missed the mark. I'm actually 50/50 and have been for a few years. This is what works for me. I sleep better at night. The article was a bit confusing that I've for the most part viewed bonds as protecting that percentage of your investment, not t...
by zvez
Fri Feb 27, 2015 5:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Not "Staying the Course"
Replies: 40
Views: 6472

Re: Not "Staying the Course"

I don't really use the target date in considering my allocation, more if the breakdown of stocks/bonds/international meets my requirements. Should the allocation change drastically or I change my goals I'd just move into another target date fund that has what I need. Well... if you own Vanguard targ...
by zvez
Tue Feb 10, 2015 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard target date asset allocation
Replies: 23
Views: 3595

Re: Vanguard target date asset allocation

You have to completely ignore the "target date" 2020 2025 etc and study the breakdown of stocks, bonds, international etc. They're far too agressive at least for me, I'm retiring in another 4 years at 59. 1/2. and I'm in target 2015 because I like the roughly 50% allocation of equities for me. What ...
by zvez
Thu Jan 22, 2015 1:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: good time to invest in a Reit Index fund?
Replies: 40
Views: 6401

Re: good time to invest in a Reit Index fund?

so when is a good time to consider reits as part of a portfolio. I'm 54 and plan on retiring at 55, would their ever be a case?

Also, REITS are interest rate sensitive. But with Europe apparently in/nearing deflation, is the fed realistically going to raise rates this year?
by zvez
Wed Jan 07, 2015 6:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds had a pretty good year in 2014?
Replies: 11
Views: 2032

Re: Bonds had a pretty good year in 2014?

at the beginning of 14 they were predicting a bond meltdown, glad they were wrong.
by zvez
Tue Dec 30, 2014 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Target Retirement Funds - are they the AA you would choose?
Replies: 32
Views: 4480

Re: Target Retirement Funds - are they the AA you would choo

absolutely spot on. Also, the AA varies for different fund families wildly. For me, I'm retiring in about 5 years (59.5) so right now my AA is roughly 50/50. To get the AA I like I've gone with Vanguard 2015 target date fund. I'll revisit the AA to make sure it stays where I want it. The date is not...
by zvez
Mon Nov 17, 2014 7:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Glidepath (target date) investments distort asset allocation
Replies: 20
Views: 4648

Re: Glidepath (target date) investments distort asset alloca

perhaps I'm not using target date correctly. But I actually choose the target date fund for my risk tolerance (I'm 54 but my risk tolerance is low as I'm retiring in the next three or four years). I look at the allocation of international and domestic equities and bonds. to that end I'm in Vanguard ...
by zvez
Mon Sep 22, 2014 8:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I sold my gold, and would sell commodities too
Replies: 71
Views: 8911

Re: Why I sold my gold, and would sell commodities too

Browser,
Did you own physical gold or etfs? If ETF, what one did you use.
I've no commodity exposure at all, but am just curious. It seems like physical gold has lots of pitfalls, ie liquidating, added costs of liquidating, getting a buyer to pay close to market price etc.

Thanks
Chris
by zvez
Mon Mar 17, 2014 4:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Target date retirement funds
Replies: 20
Views: 2684

Re: Target date retirement funds

I don't pay any attention to the target date on the fund. I assess based on allocation of bonds, stock and international and domestic. I'm actually probably overly conservative, but I sleep better at nite. I'm presently 50% in vanguard 2015 fund and 50% in trp 2015 fund. Moved into these a couple ye...
by zvez
Wed Jan 15, 2014 3:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Kudlow bad advice on bonds
Replies: 52
Views: 6385

Re: Larry Kudlow bad advice on bonds

Kudlow is is an economist, why would anyone listen to him for investment advice, certainly no better than Suze Orman or others out there.
by zvez
Fri Jan 03, 2014 7:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2013: a bad year for pimco
Replies: 26
Views: 4382

2013: a bad year for pimco

Tough going for pimco in 13.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101309088
by zvez
Tue Dec 31, 2013 12:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar Ratings Vanguard vs. TRP target date funds
Replies: 10
Views: 978

Re: Morningstar Ratings Vanguard vs. TRP target date funds

ding ding ding..... kinda seems like that!
livesoft wrote:I think the main reason might be that TRowePrice advertises more on the M* web site than Vanguard does.
by zvez
Tue Dec 31, 2013 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar Ratings Vanguard vs. TRP target date funds
Replies: 10
Views: 978

Re: Morningstar Ratings Vanguard vs. TRP target date funds

Oh I agree wholeheartedly, I guess my question is what does morningstar use in determining star rating (I'm sure it's incredibly complex). All the trprice target funds seem to have a five star rating and the vanguards three, guess I'm just wondering why. One cannot compare performance on Target Reti...
by zvez
Tue Dec 31, 2013 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar Ratings Vanguard vs. TRP target date funds
Replies: 10
Views: 978

Morningstar Ratings Vanguard vs. TRP target date funds

SO I'm curious. I have TR Price 2015 target date fund(parhx return thru nov 30 is 13.03%) in my hospital 401k (it's only choice in target retirement). In my 401 self-managed I have Vanguard target date 2015 (vtxvx reutrn thru nov 30 is 12.03%). ER for vanguard is a tiny fraction of what it is for th...