Search found 151 matches

by Daffy
Fri Feb 01, 2013 2:34 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When is a bank CD safer than a bond fund?
Replies: 50
Views: 5240

Re: When is a bank CD safer than a bond fund?

I happily accept the 1% loss in my bond funds this month, since my stock funds were up, what, 6% in 31 days? Not me. For me it's bad enough I have to watch equities gyrate the way they do the last thing I find tolerable is a TBM fund losing 1% in any given month. This is just another wake-up call t...
by Daffy
Fri Jan 25, 2013 12:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy I-bonds this week or six months from now?
Replies: 15
Views: 1694

Re: Buy I-bonds this week or six months from now?

I bought now to get my 1-year clock running. The sooner I'm in, the sooner I can get out if the money is needed or something else comes around that's better and worth the 3-month penalty. Worst case scenario is the next inflation component adjustment is 0% and the yield for this bond will be 0.88% f...
by Daffy
Wed Jan 23, 2013 11:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Bogleheads made me a worse Investor
Replies: 76
Views: 8877

Re: How Bogleheads made me a worse Investor

I had/have a similar problem to the OP. Since discovering/joining this site I've reassessed my tolerance for equity risk at least a dozen times. And it's gone down every time. I'm at the point that I have a 0% risk tolerance for equities, and such I have migrated to things like CD ladders, I Bonds, ...
by Daffy
Tue Jan 08, 2013 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another "Rick Rant" about fund adverstiing
Replies: 15
Views: 2437

Re: Another "Rick Rant" about fund adverstiing

Correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't we all investing in "free enterprise"? If it's legal, then doesn't "caveat emptor" apply and the onus is on us to determine whether to buy or not? Gripe all you want about marketing it's not going away anytime soon.
by Daffy
Tue Jan 08, 2013 2:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3-fund portfolio: replace bonds with CDs?
Replies: 58
Views: 9146

Re: 3-fund portfolio: replace bonds with CDs?

I am looking for options to place "bond" part of my portfolio and I am having hard time justifying investing in bonds and not just buying CDs instead. LH: Bonds are primarily for safety in the Three Fund Portfolio. CDs can perform the same function. In my opinion it is OK to use "CDs instead." Ther...
by Daffy
Wed Nov 07, 2012 11:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is this a Really Bad Day?
Replies: 52
Views: 7566

Re: Is this a Really Bad Day?

Technically, not even close. I guess it all depends on one's perspective and appetite for risk. Any day the market falls, whether it be 2.5% like today or 0.00025% it's a really bad day for me. I cannot STAND the necessary evil of investing in something that can lose mark-to-market value on any giv...
by Daffy
Wed Nov 07, 2012 3:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I Bonds - for 2013
Replies: 24
Views: 6255

Re: I Bonds - for 2013

I think I'll buy in January. Since I'm betting that the fixed rate will remain at 0% for the year, I haven't seen a good argument to wait, considering the other alternatives in this low-rate environment. Me too. Me three. It's better to move the money out of low paying savings and start the 12-mont...
by Daffy
Wed Nov 07, 2012 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need advice - early lumpsum offer...
Replies: 43
Views: 4574

Re: Need advice - early lumpsum offer...

As long as you're comfortable with your company not messing with your pension during your remaining lifetime then it sounds like you made peace with your math and decision. So good for you. That was the one grey area I just couldn't get over when it came to my own situation. I just couldn't trust my...
by Daffy
Sun Oct 28, 2012 1:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle: Most Difficult Investment Conditions I've Ever Seen
Replies: 53
Views: 8094

Re: Bogle: Most Difficult Investment Conditions I've Ever Se

None of this matters. It is all short term noise and reeks of market timing. It will all even out, long term. I'm surprised Bogle would even get himself involved in short term prognostications. Disappointing. Your comment "It will all even out, long term" is also a prognostication. Here you are cri...
by Daffy
Sat Oct 27, 2012 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: market drops but not all the news is bad
Replies: 16
Views: 2347

Re: market drops but not all the news is bad

Daffy ...[day traders]...They don't determine impact the real value of a company. All they might do is impact valuation on a particular day, but not long term and that is all the investor should care about. Exactly my point. Day traders and HFT algorithms as you say can and do impact valuations on ...
by Daffy
Sat Oct 27, 2012 12:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: market drops but not all the news is bad
Replies: 16
Views: 2347

Re: market drops but not all the news is bad

Good news means nothing. Everyone should know that by now. It takes the market 6 months or longer to digest good news, but 6 milliseconds to digest bad news. That's why there are always steep declines, and very slow, steady gains (how often does the market ever go up 5% in 3 days?). Day traders and ...
by Daffy
Wed Oct 24, 2012 10:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Poll] What is your target allocation to TIPS and I Bonds?
Replies: 36
Views: 3578

Re: What is your target allocation to TIPS and I Bonds?

chaz wrote:The TIPS fund is good for protection when inflation rears its ugly head.
Has this ever been proven? Instead, it appears to have done well based on future "fears" of inflation, not inflation itself.
by Daffy
Mon Oct 22, 2012 11:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Ally Bank Interest Question
Replies: 2
Views: 1115

Re: Ally Bank Interest Question

My experience has been on a CDs greater than 1-year they post the interest on 12/31 and on CDs 1-year or less they post the interest on maturity date. For example, in April 2011 I bought a 5-year CD and interest posted on 12/31/11 for that YTD period. I also bought a 1-year CD in August 2011 but no ...
by Daffy
Mon Oct 22, 2012 1:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Losing money
Replies: 45
Views: 5364

Re: Losing money

You all are arguing the differences between mark-to-market and historical cost accounting. The OP has a hard time accepting a paper loss associated with current market value of an asset that has declined in value, while others are pointing out that the historical cost hasn't changed and it's only a ...
by Daffy
Tue Oct 16, 2012 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need advice - early lumpsum offer...
Replies: 43
Views: 4574

Re: Need advice - early lumpsum offer...

@sloan - again, the consensus is going to be to keep the pension instead of taking the lump sum. As you've seen there are some very good reasons for that. In my case, I simply couldn't get past the "trust factor" of my former employer. There are some cases of employee pension plans being wiped out b...
by Daffy
Mon Oct 15, 2012 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need advice - early lumpsum offer...
Replies: 43
Views: 4574

Re: Need advice - early lumpsum offer...

@sloan, I was in a similar position as you a year ago regarding a small lump sum pension I had from my former employer. You can read about how I handled it in this thread:

http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtop ... 0#p1281610
by Daffy
Thu Apr 19, 2012 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If You Had to Give Up One Investment, What Would it Be?
Replies: 52
Views: 3953

Re: If You Had to Give Up One Investment, What Would it Be?

I'd give up all my equities. I never liked roller coasters, and the volatility of equities drives me nuts and keeps me up at night. Even with an existing low 25% allocation. Can't stand them, probably because I suspect the whole system is crooked and it's the same as gambling at a casino.
by Daffy
Mon Apr 02, 2012 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Uh oh...is that May around the corner?
Replies: 10
Views: 1401

Uh oh...is that May around the corner?

Sarcasm alert...(and yea, I know I'm a day late from April Fools day). So take this post with a grain of salt (and add in your favorite tequila if that helps too). Sell in May and Go Away ....is a month away. Hey, that rhymes. :D I don't care anymore what anyone says about this phenomenon, but dang ...
by Daffy
Thu Mar 29, 2012 11:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Article: "Why Wallstreet Hates Lazy Portfolios"
Replies: 6
Views: 2377

Re: Article: "Why Wallstreet Hates Lazy Portfolios"

You could do a lot worse than one of these or one of the LifeStrategy Funds and many of us will with our fine-tuning. :oops: Harry Exactly why I moved into the revamped LifeStrategy funds earlier this year. My efforts to time 're-balancing' or 'fine-tuning' were resulting in a 100% failure/torture ...
by Daffy
Sat Mar 24, 2012 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Creating the Ideal "Capital Preservation" Portfolio
Replies: 30
Views: 4123

Re: Creating the Ideal "Capital Preservation" Portfolio

That said, where might the "sweet spot" be? And would you add real estate, precious metals, commodities, or foreign bonds? If KyleAAA is correct, some big chucks of capital belong in cash and gold. That opens the door for an interesting mix of assets. Again, what might constitute the safety and cap...
by Daffy
Fri Mar 23, 2012 2:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Creating the Ideal "Capital Preservation" Portfolio
Replies: 30
Views: 4123

Re: Creating the Ideal "Capital Preservation" Portfolio

It doesn't sound like the OP can handle the volatility of equities. I struggle with this myself. My recommendation to preserve capital while minimizing exposure to inflation is a CD ladder using long-term CDs (5-10 years where available) and maximum annual contributions to I and EE bonds. These are ...
by Daffy
Thu Mar 22, 2012 12:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Money Market Funds and Floating Share Price
Replies: 17
Views: 1265

Re: Money Market Funds and Floating Share Price

Something tells me that if this were to happen the float would be a one-way adjustment as opposed to two-way, and that would be down. I can't ever envision float above $1/share during any economic cycle, good or bad, but I can certainly envision with 100% confidence float down from $1 share due to n...
by Daffy
Sat Mar 10, 2012 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What really drives Total Intl Stock Index?
Replies: 23
Views: 1550

Re: What really drives Total Intl Stock Index?

Daffy, If you're specifically trying to understand what happened Friday, my opinion is that much (most?) of it was currency movements, and the rest related to fair value pricing issues. Yesterday, the major ex-US indexes were up But those indexes are denominated in foreign currencies. Euro vs. Doll...
by Daffy
Sat Mar 10, 2012 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What really drives Total Intl Stock Index?
Replies: 23
Views: 1550

Re: What really drives Total Intl Stock Index?

I'm still not clear on why deciphering the daily fluctuations of this fund is important. The daily fluctuations are not important to me (yet they may be to other investors). What is important is my personal understanding of how this fund's NAV is determined. And I think that's a reasonable thing to...
by Daffy
Sat Mar 10, 2012 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What really drives Total Intl Stock Index?
Replies: 23
Views: 1550

Re: What really drives Total Intl Stock Index?

Perhaps the phenomenon described in the original post is also affected by this, from the VGTSX prospectus (which refers to " a " fund rather than " the " fund because this particular statutory prospectus covers more than one Vanguard international fund): :idea: Thank you MarcMyWord for finding this...
by Daffy
Sat Mar 10, 2012 8:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What really drives Total Intl Stock Index?
Replies: 23
Views: 1550

Re: What really drives Total Intl Stock Index?

I've observed many days when the overseas markets close up by a good amount, but the foreign funds in the US do not follow suit. I've also observed the reverse, but to a lesser extent. Maybe this is what the OP is asking about. Yes, this is what I'm trying to understand better. If the fund "tracks ...
by Daffy
Sat Mar 10, 2012 2:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What really drives Total Intl Stock Index?
Replies: 23
Views: 1550

Re: What really drives Total Intl Stock Index?

jda, thank you for forwarding me to that post, but after reading it I realize it does not answer my question. In fact, it does not even seem related to the questions I am asking. Thanks though.
by Daffy
Sat Mar 10, 2012 2:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What really drives Total Intl Stock Index?
Replies: 23
Views: 1550

What really drives Total Intl Stock Index?

Can someone explain to me what really drives the performance of Vanguard's Total International Stock Index fund? There does not appear to be any correlation with the daily combined movement of the Nikkei 225, Hang Seng, and Straits Times indexes in Asia, nor the FTSE 100, DAX, or CAC 40 indexes in E...
by Daffy
Fri Mar 09, 2012 12:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: Will we ever see a market drawdown >75% again?
Replies: 51
Views: 4363

Re: Poll: Will we ever see a market drawdown >75% again?

A lot can happen in 20-years. I'm a permabear, so I fully expect a 75% decline to occur within the next 5 years. Heck, we may see 4 or 5 moves greater than 75% up or down in the next 20-years. Equity trading has become very volatile due to high frequency trading, lack of regulation, and manipulation...
by Daffy
Sun Feb 12, 2012 3:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I'm a Basket Case...
Replies: 54
Views: 4768

Re: I'm a Basket Case...

ARB57, my situation is similar to yours except I'm about 10 years younger than you. I retired about 18 months ago at age 43, and like you I have a hard time NOT watching the markets and I have a very hard time when stocks fall, no matter what my allocation to equities. I know I need equities in my p...
by Daffy
Mon Feb 06, 2012 4:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: February 4, 2012 Peak High?
Replies: 47
Views: 4344

Re: Poll: February 4, 2012 Peak High?

Dutchgirl wrote:Who cares. Why fill this Forum with meaningless polls.
Why so bitter? I'm just trying to gauge sentiment. If you don't want to participate, move along. Just because it's meaningless to you doesn't mean I'm not interested for research purposes. No need to get snippy. :peace
by Daffy
Mon Feb 06, 2012 12:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: February 4, 2012 Peak High?
Replies: 47
Views: 4344

Re: Poll: February 4, 2012 Peak High?

Over 100 tallies and 95% of you are bullish. Interesting results so far. Thank you for participating.

On a side note, why has the old saying "be fearful when the market is greedy, and greedy when the market is fearful" suddenly come to mind?
by Daffy
Sat Feb 04, 2012 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: February 4, 2012 Peak High?
Replies: 47
Views: 4344

Poll: February 4, 2012 Peak High?

On February 4, 2012 the Dow closed at 12,862.23 and the S&P 500 closed at 1,344.90 . Through the first 6 weeks of 2012 the market has seen a tremendous run-up. Normally after such a run-up there is a pull-back. Do you think these closing prices as of 2/4/12 will be at or near the peak high for 2012?...
by Daffy
Thu Jan 19, 2012 12:28 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax Implications on Roth IRA and Individual Transfer
Replies: 3
Views: 477

Re: Tax Implications on Roth IRA and Individual Transfer

Also keep in mind that the tax rates on capital gains goes up next year. If you must transfer, and incur capital gains, this year will likely be better than future years from a tax perspective (subject to change of course).
by Daffy
Thu Jan 19, 2012 12:10 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rolling over pension plan to IRA
Replies: 8
Views: 1312

Re: Rolling over pension plan to IRA

StrsNStrps, I was in a similar situation to you last year when I left the company I worked for for 20 years. I had a 401(k) and a small pension that survived several mergers. Not only did I roll over the 401(k) immediately after I left the company to an IRA, but I also decided to take my pension as ...
by Daffy
Mon Jan 16, 2012 12:14 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Has anyone been contacted by the IRS regarding TLH?
Replies: 21
Views: 2240

Re: Has anyone been contacted by the IRS regarding TLH?

If no one is monitoring wash sales, and there's no documented case of anyone ever getting busted by the IRS for a wash sale, then why does the rule exist in the first place? What exactly is the point of this rule if there's no way to police it?
by Daffy
Sun Jan 08, 2012 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Roth Conversions and Taxes
Replies: 13
Views: 1109

Re: Roth Conversions and Taxes

Why wait until the 1-year anniversary? Is there a penalty imposed by the fund for selling in less than 1 year? Kevin Actually, there is no reason to wait. A ST loss is just the same as a LT loss I suppose. Late night brain freeze I guess. Thank you everyone for your thoughtful and advisory replies....
by Daffy
Sun Jan 08, 2012 3:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Roth Conversions and Taxes
Replies: 13
Views: 1109

Re: Roth Conversions and Taxes

Daffy, Yes, basically you have it right. If you have very low income during the next several years, converting thru the 0% bracket is free money and a no-brainer. The harder question is how much MORE, if any, to convert in any given year. That depends on all the variables in my previous post. Most ...
by Daffy
Sun Jan 08, 2012 3:41 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Roth Conversions and Taxes
Replies: 13
Views: 1109

Re: Roth Conversions and Taxes

You generally have the right idea but under current tax rules, you may be able to convert more than you think and still have zero tax liability. This is because certain types of income (Qualified Dividend Income and LT Capital gains) are taxable at 0% up to the top of the 15% tax bracket. This esse...
by Daffy
Sun Jan 08, 2012 3:16 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Roth Conversions and Taxes
Replies: 13
Views: 1109

Re: Roth Conversions and Taxes

I have a similar follow-up question. I am in a similar position as the OP, except I am likely to be in the 10% bracket in 2012. My only projected taxable income is going to be bank interest and ordinary dividends. But let's assume those are going to be $0 for my hypothetical conversion question. Let...
by Daffy
Sun Jan 01, 2012 11:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard TSM & TBM Allocations Returns 1996 - 2011
Replies: 14
Views: 2430

Re: Vanguard TSM & TBM Allocations Returns 1996 - 2011

What's sad is a 100% 5-7 year rolling CD ladder portfolio would have likely outperformed all those combinations during that time frame with zero volatility and risk of loss (not counting inflation concerns). We can learn a lot from our grandmothers. Like everyone on this board, I was probably brainw...
by Daffy
Tue Dec 20, 2011 9:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Legos appreciating in value?
Replies: 44
Views: 8259

Re: Legos appreciating in value?

Is making a couple hundred dollars on flipping Legos worth the effort of having to track them down, auctioning them off on eBay, handling all the shipping, and dealing with Joe Consumer on new/used/opened/unopened merchandise? Unless you're planning on making this your full-time retail business then...
by Daffy
Mon Dec 19, 2011 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PenFed CD rates in January?
Replies: 7
Views: 1713

Re: PenFed CD rates in January?

Just got off the phone with a PenFed CSR and she said that she wasn't aware of any CD promotion this coming January. The key phrase is "not aware of" and that could mean (1) no we won't have one, or (2) yes we may have one, but we can't tell you until after January 1. I worked in banking for 20-yea...
by Daffy
Sun Dec 18, 2011 4:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Part 2: Fears of Soaring Rates are Overblown
Replies: 42
Views: 4286

Re: Part 2: Fears of Soaring Rates are Overblown

After reading through Rick's articles and these threads there is nothing reassuring about the current state of interest rates and fixed income investments. We are all doomed. Practically all fixed-income investments are yielding 0% or less on a real basis, and equities are probably doomed to negativ...
by Daffy
Wed Nov 16, 2011 3:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Calling all "Buckets" people for help
Replies: 21
Views: 2032

Re: Calling all "Buckets" people for help

Why not simply put your safe money in a ladder of FDIC-insured CDs, with a liquid reserve in a savings account? This is what I do. Without any intent of hijacking this thread, and for illustration purposes only while on the subject, here is the bucket strategy I am currently considering implementin...
by Daffy
Tue Nov 15, 2011 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CBS site, blog update
Replies: 20
Views: 3240

Re: CBS site, blog update

Thanks Larry. One suggestion for your web editors is to have the blog articles dated on the main page.
by Daffy
Sat Nov 12, 2011 1:04 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard not-so-boglehead-ish "improvement"
Replies: 27
Views: 3542

Re: Vanguard not-so-boglehead-ish "improvement"

Smartphones and tablets are replacing notebook laptops the way notebook laptops replaced the desktop PC. This is just another way to stay up to speed with technology and to make sure Vanguard is taking care of the young, next generation of investors. Not everyone sits around in front of a PC all day...
by Daffy
Thu Nov 10, 2011 1:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My new trading strategy.
Replies: 21
Views: 2232

Re: My new trading strategy.

Since I am semi-retired and dependent upon my portfolio to live off of and I'm no longer in the accumulation stage (at least until I go broke by being invested in equities and I'm forced to go back to work against my will or desire), I have actually changed my "trading strategy" also. I now fully ex...
by Daffy
Thu Nov 10, 2011 1:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So this is really an efficient market?
Replies: 65
Views: 4160

Re: So this is really an efficient market?

For me, figuring out "market efficiency" seems more challenging than figuring out "the meaning of life", or "what happens to us when we die?". When I was younger getting my Finance degree and MBA, I bought into all those concepts of EMH and MPT (if I didn't I wouldn't pass my courses), but now I thi...
by Daffy
Thu Nov 10, 2011 12:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Preserving Wealth
Replies: 22
Views: 3938

Re: Preserving Wealth

What would your financial plan and invest portfolio look like if your only goal was preserving existing wealth under a wide range of future scenarios (economic, political, etc.)? If my "only goal was preserving existing wealth", as stated I would also invest in a FDIC insured long-term bank CD ladd...