Search found 526 matches

by dothemontecarlo
Thu May 24, 2018 10:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Microcap Stock Screener
Replies: 21
Views: 1844

Re: Microcap Stock Screener

This makes the average market cap of your portfolio larger than many mass market microcap funds. If you end up in the same playfield IMO defeat the purpose of doing it yourself. The average weighted market value of my portfolio is $161M. (This is weighted by the purchase amount of each stock). This...
by dothemontecarlo
Mon May 21, 2018 10:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Microcap Stock Screener
Replies: 21
Views: 1844

Re: Microcap Stock Screener

For instance, an Excel sort of one Fidelity data dump of companies (with less than $650M market cap, an average daily volume of at least 1K, a ROA > 0, an operating margin > 1%, and at least 50 employees) produced a 30-company basket with a weighted average market cap of $321M, a weighted average P...
by dothemontecarlo
Mon May 21, 2018 5:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Microcap Stock Screener
Replies: 21
Views: 1844

Re: Microcap Stock Screener

Following up... In my Microcap stock selection worksheet, I finished incorporating lack_ey 's much-appreciated suggestions (e.g., using Z-scores and (partially) weighting the final stock selection by the composite scores, giving those with higher scores more weight). I have also an optional sector w...
by dothemontecarlo
Wed May 16, 2018 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Microcap Stock Screener
Replies: 21
Views: 1844

Re: Microcap Stock Screener

Brian & Denis,

Thank you for those great links!

Eric
by dothemontecarlo
Wed May 16, 2018 8:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Microcap Stock Screener
Replies: 21
Views: 1844

Re: Microcap Stock Screener

So is your goal to have multifactor loadings or to have microcaps? You kind of have to prioritize at some point. What's your starting universe of stocks, anyway? Rank is probably fine in doing the sorts, but something like z-scores may be a little better. Or something in between. Frankly, z-scores ...
by dothemontecarlo
Wed May 16, 2018 6:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Microcap Stock Screener
Replies: 21
Views: 1844

Re: Microcap Stock Screener

Sounds like a lot of work to me. What do you expect to gain over TSM or the microcap funds that already exist? Larry Swedroe's book reported the following annual premiums: Equity (broad market): 8.3% from 1927-2015 Size (CRSP 6-10 vs CRSP 1-5): 3.3% from 1927-2015 Value (by BtM): 4.1% from 1952-201...
by dothemontecarlo
Wed May 16, 2018 4:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Microcap Stock Screener
Replies: 21
Views: 1844

Microcap Stock Screener

This is the first time I have posted in many years. I'm returning in hopes of tapping into this forum's terrific theoretical insight. I am trying to fill a microcap allocation. I am not satisfied with the fund options (e.g., BRSIX, IWC) currently available. BRSIX, in particular, has had a very large...
by dothemontecarlo
Fri Apr 06, 2012 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIP$TER Retirement Planning Calculator
Replies: 3
Views: 2982

Re: TIP$TER Retirement Planning Calculator

Sorry to everyone about the delay. I'm an extremely busy patent attorney, and TIP$TER was born of the lull I experienced during the Great Recession of 2008-2009. Since then, I have gotten very busy with my practice again. I posted a time-valid version yesterday, with only minor user-end changes (jus...
by dothemontecarlo
Wed Sep 14, 2011 11:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement Calculators and Spending Models
Replies: 74
Views: 15764

TIP$TER

ThePrune -- thanks for doing this. I can see that a lot of effort has been put into reviewing the various calculators. I wrote the TIP$TER calculator. As far as methods of calculation go, it can do both HRET (historical/exploratory), which is the default option, and MC (w/ choices between "normal," ...
by dothemontecarlo
Tue Feb 15, 2011 10:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year TIPs yield at 1.98%- back up the truck, beep, beep..
Replies: 501
Views: 113321

Re: To beep or not to beep?

Long dated tips in the UK yield under 1%! cheers, I expect that if/when the US TIPS market matures (i.e., becomes comparably large, familiar, and widely accepted as the UK inflation-adjusted bonds), US TIPS yields will fall and be more commensurate with their UK counterparts. So I'm loading up on T...
by dothemontecarlo
Tue Feb 15, 2011 9:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Inflation Rate to Use in Retirement Planning
Replies: 34
Views: 8505

Re: Inflation Rate to Use in Retirement Planning

The inflation rate we keep hearing is no where in the realm of reality. :x I'm working on retirement projections and need a more accurate number.... You might consider doing retirement projections in "real" terms. Instead of projecting both inflation and a nominal rate of return on your investments...
by dothemontecarlo
Tue Mar 23, 2010 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why not put it all in TIPS
Replies: 35
Views: 5073

Re: Why not put it all in TIPS

Why not just put all your retirement funds in TIPS and live of the interest and declining balance? I think this beats putting all of your retirement funds in non-inflation-adjusted CDs -- which is what a very large portion of the elderly population, including my parents, do today. (Yes, I've spent ...
by dothemontecarlo
Tue Mar 23, 2010 12:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rollover into Roth before 2014
Replies: 2
Views: 752

I actually prepared the spreadsheet in the OP last year, and made a substantial rollover, well into the 25% tax bracket, last year because of it. I plan to do similarly for years 2010-2013. I also expect a VAT in the future, but I don't think it will be paired with lower marginal income tax rates. M...
by dothemontecarlo
Mon Mar 22, 2010 2:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rollover into Roth before 2014
Replies: 2
Views: 752

Rollover into Roth before 2014

(No political commentary at all, here, please . Please restrict comments to whether it makes sense to roll over $ into Roths) If you expect your marginal tax rate to be higher in retirement than you are experiencing now, then you are well advised to roll money over from existing IRAs into Roth IRAs....
by dothemontecarlo
Sat Mar 20, 2010 12:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS vs. Nominal Bonds in a Retirement Portfolio?
Replies: 68
Views: 8395

Re: TIPS vs. Nominal Bonds in a Retirement Portfolio?

However, if your WR is at or lower than the SWR, Otar argues that you should favor short and intermediate-term nominal bonds for your bond allocation rather than TIPS . He argues that, at lower withdrawal rates, you can tolerate more portfolio volatility without increasing the probability of portfo...
by dothemontecarlo
Fri Mar 19, 2010 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: LTPZ -- I must be the only one interested
Replies: 21
Views: 2619

Hi dothemontecarlo, This sentence near the end of the linked article tells me again that it's impossible for an average Joe to figure out the so-called "liquidity and bid-ask spreads of the underlying securities." Beyond an understanding of the structure and market structure of ETFs, it can be very...
by dothemontecarlo
Fri Mar 19, 2010 2:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: LTPZ -- I must be the only one interested
Replies: 21
Views: 2619

Today's volume was reported to be 695 shares. Average daily volume is like 7500 shares. Maybe folks were kind of waiting for new from the Fed. Those volume numbers mean this is a non-starter for me and probably most folks. I would not want to own more than about 5% of the average amount traded in a...
by dothemontecarlo
Thu Mar 18, 2010 9:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: LTPZ -- I must be the only one interested
Replies: 21
Views: 2619

Whether it's stocks or bonds, investors pay to wait. Right now, looking at the figures for TIP and VIPSX and STPZ, there's at least 10X (and probably considerably more) the volume being traded in short-term TIPS (10 years or less) as in long-term TIPS (15-years or more). I guess many of them are on ...
by dothemontecarlo
Wed Mar 17, 2010 8:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: LTPZ -- I must be the only one interested
Replies: 21
Views: 2619

LTPZ -- I must be the only one interested

LTPZ is a recent Pimco ETF that concentrates on long-term TIPS (15 years or greater). I was quite happy to see it become available. It has an ER of 0.2%. Recently I swapped most of my TIP etf shares for Pimco's longer-term maturity LTPZ etf shares. But in the last few days the volume of LTPZ shares ...
by dothemontecarlo
Fri Mar 05, 2010 12:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: All Tips Calculator
Replies: 2
Views: 877

Re: All Tips Calculator

Would someone be kind enough to provide me the website for a calcualtor that computes how long an all tips, or mostly tips portfolio will last at various real returns. I know Bob has referred to one many times but I can not find the post or the site with the calculator. I also remember a calculator...
by dothemontecarlo
Wed Feb 24, 2010 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement Solutions for the Future
Replies: 49
Views: 9553

Can't believe a patent was issued for this retirement planning "plan" - Why not? Look at the independent claims -- they are quite narrow. If the claimed invention meets the statutory requirements by having utility, being novel, and nonobvious, why shouldn't it be patentable? The purpose of patent p...
by dothemontecarlo
Sun Feb 21, 2010 11:37 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What mysteries get solved by living a long time?
Replies: 138
Views: 19513

My 6 year old son is already figuring out some gems of wisdom. On a walk today, I asked him why he was happy. He said he was happy "because Mommy is happy"

:D
by dothemontecarlo
Thu Feb 18, 2010 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax diversification: Optimal ratio of Roth/Non-Roth?
Replies: 47
Views: 6916

Re: Tax diversification: Optimal ratio of Roth/Non-Roth?

I was wondering if anyone has already figured out whether there is an optimal "ratio" for Roth to non-Roth (Pre-tax/tax-deferred) retirement accounts? The optimal contribution distribution, and timing of rollovers, between Roth IRAs and regular IRAs is going to depend on a lot of highly individual ...
by dothemontecarlo
Tue Feb 16, 2010 7:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIP$TER Financial Planner & Simulator v2.0
Replies: 3
Views: 2219

Ran a simulation (MC) where 5% case was higher than 50% case. Also, where 50% case went above 95% case. Many times it runs fine. Errors occur near the end of the time spectrum. Hi RM, TIP$TER displays two primary charts: the annual retirement budget, versus time, supported by selected ranked trials...
by dothemontecarlo
Tue Feb 16, 2010 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIP$TER Financial Planner & Simulator v2.0
Replies: 3
Views: 2219

Pro version & reports

Announcement: Bogleheads (including those who aren't professional financial planners) are now welcome to use TIP$TER Pro, without registering it, to generate reports for themselves. (It's free.) Why: Over the past several months, several Boglehead DIY types have registered TIP$TER Pro, presumably so...
by dothemontecarlo
Tue Feb 02, 2010 12:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Calculate withdrawal rate for changing income?
Replies: 11
Views: 1525

Re: Calculate withdrawal rate for changing income?

How would you adjust your withdrawal rate to take into account a scheduled increase in income (or decrease in spending) in the future? In other words, you want to amortize your current portfolio, plus your future anticipated income streams, over a targeted duration, in order to yield a sustainable ...
by dothemontecarlo
Wed Jan 20, 2010 3:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone Understand Hospital Billing?
Replies: 66
Views: 9865

I'm a lawyer, so a few years ago I did a little research for cases contesting the absurd "list" charges charged to uninsured or underinsured patients. I was surprised to find that many of the cases rubber stamped the hospital's "list charges," even in the face of claims that the charges were unconsc...
by dothemontecarlo
Sat Nov 21, 2009 9:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone selling TIPS?
Replies: 55
Views: 8247

The last time yields got this low (about Jan. 08), I sold almost all my TIPS and put the proceeds into stocks. Talk about "timing" the market. I kept adding to those equity positions through about Aug. of 08. Yep, just before the big spectacular Lehman crash. Despite that horrible timing, I've recov...
by dothemontecarlo
Wed Nov 18, 2009 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why the 4% retirement withdrawal rule is a myth - NOT!
Replies: 58
Views: 9546

dbr - thanks for the "fine print" regarding the 4% rule. I still think it has achieved the status of a "myth" in the popular media that is in need of debunking. This wouldn't be the first time that: 1) An academic or scientist made a cautiously-stated insight, filled with appropriate caveats; and 2...
by dothemontecarlo
Wed Nov 11, 2009 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gross: stocks and other assets may be 100% overvalued
Replies: 30
Views: 4719

I still sometime dream that I've signed up for a college course and forgot all about it, and it's the day of the final exam, and I can't find the room, and I have only five minutes to get there, and the building is a twisted maze of corridors from every elementary school, high school, and universit...
by dothemontecarlo
Fri Nov 06, 2009 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mismeasurement of Risk in Retirement Planning
Replies: 28
Views: 4033

I like that. If I understand the graph correctly, you are showing that a 40/60 portfolio has a about a 95% chance of providing the same income as a 100% TIPS portfolio and about a 5% chance of about 150% of a 100% TIPS portfolio. (With the caveat of course that simulations are not real life.) I thi...
by dothemontecarlo
Fri Nov 06, 2009 5:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mismeasurement of Risk in Retirement Planning
Replies: 28
Views: 4033

I like that. If I understand the graph correctly, you are showing that a 40/60 portfolio has a about a 95% chance of providing the same income as a 100% TIPS portfolio and about a 5% chance of about 150% of a 100% TIPS portfolio. (With the caveat of course that simulations are not real life.) I thi...
by dothemontecarlo
Fri Nov 06, 2009 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mismeasurement of Risk in Retirement Planning
Replies: 28
Views: 4033

I'm with dbr -- such a measure would be dubious -- because the measure assumes a fixed and inflexible retirement budget. Wouldn't it be more meaningful to: 1) assume some flexibility in retirement expenditures, one that is loosely tied to the amortized retirement budget that one's current and future...
by dothemontecarlo
Sat Oct 31, 2009 6:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is gold more than 5% of your portfolio? 10%?
Replies: 44
Views: 6636

Is gold more than 5% of your portfolio? 10%?
Q2: where do you store it? We want specifics, people!

Q3: do you, by any chance, stash cash in your sock drawer?

P.S.: thank you in advance
by dothemontecarlo
Wed Oct 28, 2009 8:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Money decoupled from value?
Replies: 27
Views: 3247

mda42, if you want to understand how $10 of M0 money supply can turn into $100 of a broader measure of the money supply, nisiprius's post above explains it well: If a lot of people borrow money from one bank and deposit it in another, each bank keeping 10% reserves and lending out 90%, at some point...
by dothemontecarlo
Wed Oct 28, 2009 8:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Money decoupled from value?
Replies: 27
Views: 3247

Re: Money decoupled from value?

What I read does not contradict what you say, but it made it sound like the Fed actually would create the money for the bank. That is, if you opened a bank with $10 reserves and found someone willing to borrow $100, the Fed would create the money for you to lend. Is this incorrect? Yes, that is inc...
by dothemontecarlo
Wed Oct 28, 2009 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Money decoupled from value?
Replies: 27
Views: 3247

Re: Money decoupled from value?

Basically, it said that if $10 is deposited into a bank, the bank can turn around and lend, like, $100. The money the bank distributes for the loan does not come from deposits, it is created out of thin air, with the Fed's blessing. This is simply wrong, as Sommerfield's post points out. Other than...
by dothemontecarlo
Sun Oct 25, 2009 10:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Average maturity of US debt
Replies: 3
Views: 1552

Average maturity of US debt

I have long wondered how US debt is distributed over different maturities. Just learned that the best source for this kind of info is the US Treasury's Office of Debt Management. Page 8 of the following report offers an interesting graph showing the average maturity of US debt: http://www.ustreas.go...
by dothemontecarlo
Mon Oct 19, 2009 11:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retirement Calculators
Replies: 3
Views: 1214

TIP$TER.

A little information about it here:
http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtop ... 28&start=0

Feedback is welcome.
by dothemontecarlo
Sun Sep 27, 2009 6:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIP$TER Financial Planner & Simulator v2.0
Replies: 3
Views: 2219

TIP$TER Financial Planner & Simulator v2.0

I would like to invite fellow Bogleheads to try out TIP$TER Financial Planner v2.0 . It’s a free Excel-based simulator that uses historical S&P 500 returns. Inspired and shaped by Boglehead-dissemimated nuggets of wisdom and critiques, TIP$TER is structured on the fundamental – and much-discussed-on...
by dothemontecarlo
Wed Sep 23, 2009 11:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk of owning stocks goes down the longer you own them...
Replies: 82
Views: 8634

The fallacy of time diversification The fallacy of the fallacy article above is the assumption that the null hypothesis is true -- that stocks follow a random walk, are unaffected by fundamentals (like PE ratios), and therefore are not prone (beyond mere chance) to "revert" toward some fundamentall...
by dothemontecarlo
Tue Sep 22, 2009 4:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Dropped my LTC Insurance
Replies: 97
Views: 13243

The OP has discovered the true value of insurance: The right to fight (and, when necessary, sue) the company to get it to honor your claim. That's been my experience with almost every insurance claim I've ever made, whether auto, health, or homeowners. Had to fight for almost every dime. It's one of...
by dothemontecarlo
Mon Sep 21, 2009 8:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tax Act - Incorrect tax figured [turned out to be IRS error]
Replies: 57
Views: 14123

I once received an erroneous deficiency notice from the IRS caused by an IRS agent entering a simple form incorrectly. I spent well over an hour on the phone trying to step the agent through, but it was futile. The person I was speaking w/ would have failed 6th grade math. Then an idea occurred to m...
by dothemontecarlo
Mon Sep 21, 2009 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: As boomers pull out funds, will they pull down markets?
Replies: 30
Views: 4769

Foreign investors (e.g., Chinese buying U.S. stocks) could pick up a lot of the slack.
by dothemontecarlo
Sat Sep 19, 2009 7:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Monte Carlo applied to normal distributions
Replies: 9
Views: 2051

Re: Monte Carlo applied to normal distributions

When I average all of the investment values after 40 years, and then compute the geometric mean (i.e., the 40th root) of that average, I get a value that is very close to 8% per year. In fact, I'm typically between 7.9% and 8.1% for the geometric mean growth of the average investment value within 5...
by dothemontecarlo
Fri Sep 18, 2009 9:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dementia poses threat to aging boomers' portfolios
Replies: 57
Views: 8606

Re: Dementia poses threat to aging boomers' portfolios

Analytic cognitive function, according to the research, falls by about one percentile a year after 20. Oh really? A nice linear decline? The research shows a 20-yr-old person of median (50 percentile) intelligence can expect to be a vegatable (0 percentile) by the age of 70? Hmm. I'd be really surp...
by dothemontecarlo
Thu Sep 17, 2009 9:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawal Methods: PMT() Formula
Replies: 31
Views: 8172

Do you know a formula to attain the needed amount? Loan payments are calculated so that the sum of the present values of the payments is equal to the sum of the present values of the loan advances. The present value of your $1000 loan is 905 =PV(0.1/12,12,0,-1000) So your payment for both loans is ...
by dothemontecarlo
Thu Sep 17, 2009 7:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawal Methods: PMT() Formula
Replies: 31
Views: 8172

Hi Dothemontecarlo, Do you know a formula to attain the needed amount? Thanks, Vero I don't have a formula handy, although I once derived one with two such inputs many years ago. For n inputs, I developed an iterative solution (which would take a long time to explain) in TIP$TER, but it assumes ann...
by dothemontecarlo
Wed Sep 16, 2009 9:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawal Methods: PMT() Formula
Replies: 31
Views: 8172

Re: Please Help

Hi, I am currently using the PMT formula to get the amount I need to pay off my credit card in a period of a 36 months and it is working so far, however the formula is not calculating futures charges using the credit card. If I know that my current balance is $4,000 at 10% interest, we get with the...
by dothemontecarlo
Sat Sep 05, 2009 8:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Equity Premium in 100 Textbooks
Replies: 14
Views: 2408

With so little agreement on the proxy for the "risk free rate" (e.g., T-bills v. 20-year TIPS -- big difference) no wonder estimates for the "expected risk premium" vary so much.