Search found 643 matches

by gtwhitegold
Sun Mar 26, 2023 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much cash are you holding at sub-optimal interest rates?
Replies: 61
Views: 5431

Re: How much cash are you holding at sub-optimal interest rates?

Similarly to one of the posts above, I keep whatever cash I need on hand plus around $500 in my checking account. I reevaluate it each pay period. Over that, I am working to have $10,000 in my money market account with my credit union and $10,000 in a groundfloor stairs account. Anything over that goes into a brokerage account set up to be similar to an in retirement mutual fund. Right now, I'm about 42% of the way to my savings goal for my taxable accounts overall before I transition from service next year.
by gtwhitegold
Tue Mar 21, 2023 9:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSP C Fund vs S&P ETF/MF
Replies: 5
Views: 548

Re: TSP C Fund vs S&P ETF/MF

I would say that the TSP funds are better than comparable commercial funds because you don't have to wait for dividends to be reinvested. On years that there is a positive return, you should have a greater overall return than funds like SPY which don't reinvest dividends until they are distributed. One advantage specific to the TSP I Fund is that it is exempt from foreign taxes, so it should outperform any other funds that track the MSCI EAFE index.
by gtwhitegold
Tue Mar 21, 2023 9:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Avantis ETF Filing Today
Replies: 51
Views: 5474

Re: Avantis ETF Filing Today

Let me know when they release an emerging markets small cap fund.
by gtwhitegold
Sat Mar 18, 2023 2:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 5527
Views: 555128

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

I've always been curious about SCV tilting but it seems like timing is everything for this asset class. Do you guys think now is a good time for a SCV tilt with the small bank failures plastered all over the news, or is there further down to go? I really can't tell how serious of a crisis it is. If you have to ask, you're not fit to buy SCV. Just kidding :) Some people are "committed" to SCV. It's like a relationship :annoyed Others will time the market -- see livesoft's postings about this. Personally, I wouldn't make a buying or selling decision based on Boglehead's opinions about this or that. Ultimately you need to decide for yourself, otherwise you'll be changing your portfolio every other week, day, hour... I totally agree ...
by gtwhitegold
Mon Mar 13, 2023 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Managed Futures Improve performance
Replies: 17
Views: 1658

Re: Managed Futures Improve performance

comeinvest wrote: Mon Mar 13, 2023 3:30 am What is the essential difference between the AQR and the Wisdomtree fund?
Without going into a full review, the set volatility target, markets that are within the scope of the funds, their timing windows, how they handle reversals and much of that can be proprietary information. I looked at the WisdomTree fund a while ago and completely discarded it because it wouldn't provide much diversification for a traditional portfolio, but YMMV.
by gtwhitegold
Sun Mar 12, 2023 11:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 5527
Views: 555128

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

muffins14 wrote: Sun Mar 12, 2023 4:56 pm
sycamore wrote: Sun Mar 12, 2023 4:50 pm Taking a break from the SVB threads, I see not much going on here.

My small cap value fund (VBR) was down 7.8% the past week versus down 5.7% for Total Stock. Presumably a greater drop due to exposure to financial stocks?

Anyway, carry on fellow SCV investors.
Happy rebalancing. Long term treasuries were up 4% ;)
I would if I was closer to my rebalancing band, but I still have a ways to go for that. However, I am doing soft rebalancing by directing all incoming funds into the smaller cap funds available in my wife's and my employers' accounts. No real small value funds are available in either right now.
by gtwhitegold
Fri Mar 10, 2023 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Kudos to Robert T on AQR's QSPIX Analysis
Replies: 55
Views: 5031

Re: Kudos to Robert T on AQR's QSPIX Analysis

The acid test of this and similar funds is whether or not over longer times periods that they can have better performance and better diversification characteristics than plain old boring Investment Grade Bonds. Well, yes but is QSPIX being used optimally in a 60/30/10 portfolio? The concept behind NXST (90% stock 60% bond) is that alternatives are often a drag on portfolio returns. So a 90/60 fund held at 66% weight would still leave you at 60% bonds 40% stocks with 33% room left for alternatives. And if we are evaluating simply on inflation protection, isn't Vanguard Commodity Strategy Fund Overview much better? But yeah, I agree longer time periods are kinda essential as inflation doesn't rear it's head so often so returns will be depend...
by gtwhitegold
Sun Mar 05, 2023 6:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SEP IRA or SOLO 401 K eligibility
Replies: 12
Views: 930

Re: SEP IRA or SOLO 401 K eligibility

vaylie wrote: Sun Mar 05, 2023 12:58 am
gtwhitegold wrote: Fri Mar 03, 2023 2:33 pm One other thing to consider is that you don't get a Qualified Business Income (QBI) Deduction for any amount that you contribute to a traditional plan like a SEP or SIMPLE IRA. That along with possibly doing backdoor Roth contributions in the future led me to choose a Solo 401k plan.
That's only true for Roth Solo 401ks, right? I thought Traditional Solo 401ks had the same drawbacks as SEP/SIMPLE IRAs when it comes to the QBI deduction.
Yes, that's what I meant. I opened a Solo 401k a few years ago for my 1099 income. I have only made Roth contributions up to this point since I make more money through my regular Job.
by gtwhitegold
Fri Mar 03, 2023 2:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SEP IRA or SOLO 401 K eligibility
Replies: 12
Views: 930

Re: SEP IRA or SOLO 401 K eligibility

One other thing to consider is that you don't get a Qualified Business Income (QBI) Deduction for any amount that you contribute to a traditional plan like a SEP or SIMPLE IRA. That along with possibly doing backdoor Roth contributions in the future led me to choose a Solo 401k plan.
by gtwhitegold
Wed Mar 01, 2023 9:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Frontier Markets
Replies: 23
Views: 1888

Re: Frontier Markets

I personally sold out of FM years ago. When the FRN ETF was liquidated, I decided that an allocation to FM probably wasn't going to do much to help my portfolio, so I closed it out. I don't regret it.
by gtwhitegold
Thu Feb 02, 2023 9:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Increasing TSP Fund Expense Ratios
Replies: 170
Views: 17733

Re: Increasing TSP Fund Expense Ratios

I listened in on this morning's FRTIB meeting and want to report some good news on the TSP expense ratio front. The TSP's net administrative expense ratios declined in 2021 from 2020. Here are the TSP's net administrative expenses for the past few years: 2016 = 3.8 basis points 2017 = 3.3 basis points 2018 = 4.0 basis points 2019 = 4.2 basis points 2020 = 4.9 basis points 2021 = 4.3 basis points MichDad Verbally on the call they did say that the 2022 gross expense ratio before loans and forfeitures is estimated to be 6.2%. (in 2021, the net expense ratio was 1 full bp lower then the gross). My Comments based on previous presentations: This could be the most expensive year due to the converge transition combined with their replacement of a ...
by gtwhitegold
Thu Feb 02, 2023 8:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 5527
Views: 555128

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

SafeBonds wrote: Thu Feb 02, 2023 7:26 pm
BitTooAggressive wrote: Thu Feb 02, 2023 3:25 pm I am happy with VBR. I am fine with getting some mid cap diversification too.
I chose to move from VBR to AVUV near the covid bottoms when I tax loss harvested, and I'm happy with my decision, but I respect VBR investors. The rock bottom expense ratio is amazing. Especially as a Boglehead, you gotta admire that. Unlike the factors, lower expenses always pay off each and every year.
Nothing wrong with that. It seems like really deep value funds like RSV and DEEP don't have comparable returns to the risks that you take, but most SV tilts should be rewarded over time. People just need to be aware of what trade-offs they are making with different fund options.
by gtwhitegold
Thu Feb 02, 2023 8:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Comparing high-yield bonds to ⅓ stocks, ⅔ investment-grade bonds
Replies: 106
Views: 7937

Re: Comparing high-yield bonds to ⅓ stocks, ⅔ investment-grade bonds

After looking at the price history of the Van Eck Fallen Angel High Yield Bond ETF (ANGL), it looks like there is less loss of capital from NAV than other HY funds. NAV seems to track changes in yield relatively well from an initial glance. This makes sense since Fallen Angel Bonds normally have tighter covenants and are more likely to regain their original investment grade status and less likely to default than original issue high yield bonds. Larry Swedroe has also mentioned in articles that this is the only segment of corporate bonds where credit risk has been rewarded. I personally hold the iShares fund FALN myself.

The reason that I chose ANGL for this is review that it is the older of the two current Fallen Angel Bond funds.
by gtwhitegold
Thu Feb 02, 2023 12:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What will happen to mutual funds vs ETFs
Replies: 78
Views: 5021

Re: What will happen to mutual funds vs ETFs

Active funds are actively dying too, and it seems to me that the evolve or die mentality will force many of them to convert to ETFs. This thread is already collecting a set of current examples to support this thesis. My prognostication is that there will still be open-ended mutual funds 50 years from now, but they'll probably be about as rare and niche as the old school Unit Investment Trusts that once were the staple of 401K plans. I feel much the same way. I think that the mutual funds that grow will be the ones that are liquid enough to trade daily, but not liquid enough or too complex to properly price more than daily. QSPIX - AQR Style Premia Alternative Fund is a possible example. One step further than this would be interval funds. M...
by gtwhitegold
Wed Feb 01, 2023 9:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fund ETF Conversion in Employer Accounts
Replies: 5
Views: 653

Re: Fund (BOTSX) ETF Conversion in Employer Accounts

With Bridgeway likely converting BOTSX - Bridgeway Tax Managed Omni Small Cap Value Fund and DFA, JP Morgan, Fidelity and other companies either already converted funds or are in the process of doing so, how does this work for accounts that are not set up to hold ETFs like certain 401k, 403b, and similar types of accounts? Are they normally liquidated before the conversion or is the fund still held? As more fund managers convert their funds into ETFs, this definitely becomes more of an issue to investors. This is my understanding: Assuming Bridgeway's BOTSX conversion to ETF proxy vote goes for "Yes" on Feb 15th, then on Mar 10th, any shares of BOTSX held in any brokerage anywhere will either be automatically converted to a round...
by gtwhitegold
Sun Jan 29, 2023 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 5527
Views: 555128

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

From looking at correlations between AVDV and BOSVX, it looks like BSVO - Bridgeway Omni Small-Cap Value ETF will be highly correlated with AVDV once the fund is converted to an ETF format. This would make them good tax loss harvesting partners if you just want a small value slant. However, I'm thinking about using AVUV or BSVO and AVDV alongside the iShares Multifactor funds, SMLF and ISCF since they have considerably different factor profiles. My line of thinking is that this would add a small rebalancing bonus. Does this make sense or is it probably overkill at this point ? It seems like overkill. Constantly tinkering with a portfolio is counterproductive. I'm trying to resist the temptation to constantly check the markets. I've pretty ...
by gtwhitegold
Sun Jan 29, 2023 3:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which do you think is the better investment: real estate or the stock market?
Replies: 141
Views: 12126

Re: Which do you think is the better investment: real estate or the stock market?

As has already been discussed, anyone who owns their property is already invested in real estate, whether they recognize it as an investment or not. I personally own three properties, one I am currently living in, one for my mother, and a third that I kind of inherited by paying the back taxes on after my uncle passed away so that it would stay in the family. I am by no means an active real estate investor, but I do plan on retaining at least two of these properties to use as rentals if my situation changes. I know that two of these properties would be cash flow positive as soon as I had a tenant, but I have no interest in going much further with real estate investing. I feel like the biggest issue with people who invest in real estate is o...
by gtwhitegold
Sat Jan 28, 2023 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 5527
Views: 555128

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

From looking at correlations between AVDV and BOSVX, it looks like BSVO - Bridgeway Omni Small-Cap Value ETF will be highly correlated with AVDV once the fund is converted to an ETF format. This would make them good tax loss harvesting partners if you just want a small value slant. However, I'm thinking about using AVUV or BSVO and AVDV alongside the iShares Multifactor funds, SMLF and ISCF since they have considerably different factor profiles. My line of thinking is that this would add a small rebalancing bonus. Does this make sense or is it probably overkill at this point ? It seems like overkill. Constantly tinkering with a portfolio is counterproductive. I'm trying to resist the temptation to constantly check the markets. I've pretty ...
by gtwhitegold
Sat Jan 28, 2023 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 5527
Views: 555128

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

From looking at correlations between AVDV and BOSVX, it looks like BSVO - Bridgeway Omni Small-Cap Value ETF will be highly correlated with AVDV once the fund is converted to an ETF format. This would make them good tax loss harvesting partners if you just want a small value slant.

However, I'm thinking about using AVUV or BSVO and AVDV alongside the iShares Multifactor funds, SMLF and ISCF since they have considerably different factor profiles. My line of thinking is that this would add a small rebalancing bonus. Does this make sense or is it probably overkill at this point?
by gtwhitegold
Sat Jan 28, 2023 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 5527
Views: 555128

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

That sort of data is why I was long interested in finding a reasonably inexpensive way to invest in EM Value, but not so much concerned about EM Small or specifically EM Small Value. AVES is an excellent fund. It is actually quite small at 16B average weighted market cap. But it's too difficult to invest in specifically EM SMALL Value due to trading frictions/liquidity. The compromise doesn't seem to be all that significant by going a little larger and selectively targetting value I agree that it is difficult to invest in EMSV, but I'm trying to do so anyway. I currently have a hodgepodge of holdings in EM with an attempt to target EMSV, but I'm comfortable with it and I expect it to do well in the future. My current EM allocation is below...
by gtwhitegold
Tue Jan 24, 2023 11:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2020 tax costs for US and international value ETFs
Replies: 38
Views: 6187

Re: Tax costs for US and international value ETFs

I got my tax forms today and own AVUV and AVDV. My AVUV dividends were 100% qualified. All of my AVDV shares were accumulated 2nd half of year so all my dividends were paid in December. Of those dividends, 80.42% were qualified and 10.26% of dividend is listed as foreign tax. Any comments on the tax efficiency of AVDV? This is better than I was expecting so was curious on your opinion. Avantis hasn't published its tax information yet, but those numbers would make AVDV very tax efficient. In a 24% tax bracket, the tax cost would be Dividend yield * (15%*80.42% + 24%*19.56% -10.26%) which would be only 7% of the dividend. (Replace 15% and 24% by your own tax rates to calculate your personal tax cost) In 2021, the dividend was low, but the fo...
by gtwhitegold
Tue Jan 24, 2023 3:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2020 tax costs for US and international value ETFs
Replies: 38
Views: 6187

Re: Tax costs for US and international value ETFs

I got my tax forms today and own AVUV and AVDV. My AVUV dividends were 100% qualified. All of my AVDV shares were accumulated 2nd half of year so all my dividends were paid in December. Of those dividends, 80.42% were qualified and 10.26% of dividend is listed as foreign tax. Any comments on the tax efficiency of AVDV? This is better than I was expecting so was curious on your opinion. Avantis hasn't published its tax information yet, but those numbers would make AVDV very tax efficient. In a 24% tax bracket, the tax cost would be Dividend yield * (15%*80.42% + 24%*19.56% -10.26%) which would be only 7% of the dividend. (Replace 15% and 24% by your own tax rates to calculate your personal tax cost) In 2021, the dividend was low, but the fo...
by gtwhitegold
Tue Jan 24, 2023 9:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fund ETF Conversion in Employer Accounts
Replies: 5
Views: 653

Fund ETF Conversion in Employer Accounts

With Bridgeway likely converting BOTSX - Bridgeway Tax Managed Omni Small Cap Value Fund and DFA, JP Morgan, Fidelity and other companies either already converted funds or are in the process of doing so, how does this work for accounts that are not set up to hold ETFs like certain 401k, 403b, and similar types of accounts? Are they normally liquidated before the conversion or is the fund still held? As more fund managers convert their funds into ETFs, this definitely becomes more of an issue to investors.
by gtwhitegold
Tue Jan 17, 2023 10:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Role of inflation bonds in a accumlating buy and hold portfolio
Replies: 22
Views: 2162

Re: Role of inflation bonds in a accumlating buy and hold portfolio

I personally use short term TIPS in my second level emergency fund. It's set up like a barbell portfolio with a large chunk of ST TIPS, and smaller allocations to stocks, Zero Coupon Treasuries, and Fallen Angel Bonds. This is set up similarly to how Vineviz suggested in the thread below.

viewtopic.php?t=309472
by gtwhitegold
Tue Jan 17, 2023 6:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 5527
Views: 555128

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Ketawa wrote: Tue Jan 17, 2023 11:15 am
gtwhitegold wrote: Tue Jan 17, 2023 12:31 am How did you decide upon your large to small slant?
I didn't decide on a specific breakdown, I simply chose my preferred option in each account type. I would hold more small cap funds if there were other multi-factor investments available. I prefer QICLX to AVDV because I believe in momentum more than small cap.
Makes sense, and I do agree that other factors are more important than small, but I personally prefer to have some exposure to everything, so I decided to split my Developed Ex-US between ISCF AND AVDV when I can. Right now I'm just using SFILX for that in my accounts that don't allow for fractional shares of ETFs.
by gtwhitegold
Tue Jan 17, 2023 12:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 5527
Views: 555128

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

I guess we're a little off topic but it is really interesting how so many of us have higher international allocations than other Bogleheads or are even overweight International. Among my stock allocation I am 40% US (About 50/50 AVUV / the low cost value index fund in my 401k) 40% Developed Int'l (about 50/50 AVDV and DFA Intl Value fund) 20% Emerging markets (DFA Emerg Value) To get us back on topic we can talk about how our international allocation has small cap value funds. Like I mentioned I have a large allocation to AVDV. I have read here in Bogelehads that small cap international is a better diversifier to US stocks than large cap international because mega cap stocks are all international megacorps with the same global clients, but...
by gtwhitegold
Mon Jan 16, 2023 11:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 5527
Views: 555128

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

I guess we're a little off topic but it is really interesting how so many of us have higher international allocations than other Bogleheads or are even overweight International. Among my stock allocation I am 40% US (About 50/50 AVUV / the low cost value index fund in my 401k) 40% Developed Int'l (about 50/50 AVDV and DFA Intl Value fund) 20% Emerging markets (DFA Emerg Value) To get us back on topic we can talk about how our international allocation has small cap value funds. Like I mentioned I have a large allocation to AVDV. I have read here in Bogelehads that small cap international is a better diversifier to US stocks than large cap international because mega cap stocks are all international megacorps with the same global clients, but...
by gtwhitegold
Sun Jan 15, 2023 2:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Where to go Next! Need advice!
Replies: 4
Views: 845

Re: Where to go Next! Need advice!

I would also suggest that you just start investing in the TSP if you already have a sufficient emergency fund for unexpected expenses. (The closer you are to your EAOS the larger it should be.) When you are investing in the TSP, Just choose one of the Lifecycle Funds that is the closest to the date that you reach age 65 and move forward from there. I suggest this for most service members and civilian employees who don't want to have to manage multiple separate accounts. For most junior service members, you would probably be best served with investing in the Roth TSP, but there are other things to consider including if you would qualify for a larger earned income credit if you contribute to traditional. It also doesn't have to be all one or ...
by gtwhitegold
Sat Jan 14, 2023 11:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 5527
Views: 555128

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

I was very pleased with my tilted portfolio's performance in 2022. My portfolio is tilted as much as possible between my IRA (AQR Funds) and TSP account (S Fund and I Fund, plus DFA funds in mutual fund window). My taxable account has fixed income that I hold to arbitrage against my mortgage. Otherwise, my portfolio is 90% equities/10% QSPIX at market weights for region splits. All calculations using XIRR. Calculations for individual funds are mostly meaningless because I wasn't able to use the TSP mutual fund window until mid-year. Total -15.6% Equities -20.6% Domestic -24.4% Domestic SCV -7.2% International -14.2% Intl Developed -13.8% Intl Emerging -15.1% Fixed Income 6.0% QSPIX 41.5% Individual Funds QSMLX -14.7% DFSVX 23.0% S Fund -28...
by gtwhitegold
Sat Jan 14, 2023 1:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TxAggie's Avantis Adventure
Replies: 89
Views: 16047

Re: TxAggie's Avantis Adventure

For people in smaller countries, I would suggest that they invest in a regional fund. Most obvious example would be someone in Italy investing in either an entire European region or Eurozone area fund.
by gtwhitegold
Sat Jan 14, 2023 1:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you started investing today, would you tilt?
Replies: 318
Views: 19789

Re: If you started investing today, would you tilt?

Nathan Drake wrote: Sat Jan 14, 2023 12:47 am Yes. Tilting shouldn’t have anything to do with timing. It should be in your AA if you are convinced, like I and many others believe, that it enhances your portfolio.
This. My opinion is that most people who tilt now would likely tilt if they had to do it again and people that don't may be slightly more likely to change, but still unlikely to start tilting. I personally tilt some, but I would likely have much more of a tilt to my portfolio if I had understood it and other things about investing prior to my start to investing over 20 years ago. However, there are many other things about investing that I would like to have done better on earlier than just deciding to tilt or not.
by gtwhitegold
Fri Jan 13, 2023 11:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Do You Like My New 'Doo
Replies: 350
Views: 76238

Re: How Do You Like My New 'Doo

You have really thought through your fixed income investments. You like barbell strategies (Long Term and Short Term Bonds) where I liked to have most everything in Investment Grade and Intermediate Term. So what I am doing with LTPZ, lengthening the duration of my TIPS, is counter to what I had done do this point with Bonds. I liked Zero Coupon Treasuries back in the day. When I took my FDIC Insured Bank IRA to my friend who became a Stock Broker, my first fixed income investments with him were 3 Zero Coupon Treasuries at 8% (those were the days) and a Certificate of Deposit from First Interstate Bank. As I recall, the Zero Coupon Bonds were 10 year and the CD was 5 year. I really liked the Zero Coupon Bonds but interest rates fell and th...
by gtwhitegold
Thu Jan 12, 2023 9:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 5527
Views: 555128

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Sad to see this thread has been so quiet... haven't posted on Bogleheads in ages, but wanted to say hi to everyone and rejoice for another great year of SCV investing! Thanks for reviving one of my favorite threads. Let's take a look at the 2022 performance for some US ETFs and fund https://i.imgur.com/tLOHQRE.png AVUV (Avantis small cap value) -4.9% VBR (Vanguard small cap value) -9.3% Vanguard 500 -18.2% VUG (Vanguard growth) -33.2% 2022 was a down year but US Small Cap Value is significantly less down than the market and growth stocks. Charts like that make me wish that I could roll over my TSP already. That way I could have more exposure to the small and value factors. My TSP S Fund was down 26.26% last year. Ouch! Hopefully it will re...
by gtwhitegold
Thu Jan 12, 2023 9:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Do You Like My New 'Doo
Replies: 350
Views: 76238

Re: How Do You Like My New 'Doo

I can understand the timidity with the allocation to longer duration funds. I have an 8% allocation to fixed income in my portfolio overall and I also have a barbell strategy with my fixed income allocation. I try to own STRIPS in funds like ZROZ in the accounts where I can and I have VTIP and ZROZ in my third tier rainy day fund, similarly set up to how vineviz recommended using a retirement income fund in one of his threads that I can't seem to find right now. I just have a lot more VTIP than ZROZ in that account. My funds that are specifically allocated to retirement and are fixed income will all be all in STRIPS once I can roll them over to another account. I'm using the TSP F Fund (Total Bond Market) as a portion of my fixed income al...
by gtwhitegold
Wed Jan 11, 2023 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 5527
Views: 555128

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

I just reached my allocation goal for Emerging Markets Value. After this, I plan to nudge my way with Developed Ex. US Small Cap Value. I doubt that I'll be able to allocate towards US Small Cap Value before I roll over my employer plan, but as soon as I am able to, I plan to roll over most of it to my Solo 401k that I use for my side gig. I highly doubt that the spread will be back to normal levels by the time that I'm through adjusting my portfolio to be almost completely small value, but I'm in it for the long haul either way.
by gtwhitegold
Tue Jan 10, 2023 11:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Do You Like My New 'Doo
Replies: 350
Views: 76238

Re: How Do You Like My New 'Doo

I can understand the timidity with the allocation to longer duration funds. I have an 8% allocation to fixed income in my portfolio overall and I also have a barbell strategy with my fixed income allocation. I try to own STRIPS in funds like ZROZ in the accounts where I can and I have VTIP and ZROZ in my third tier rainy day fund, similarly set up to how vineviz recommended using a retirement income fund in one of his threads that I can't seem to find right now. I just have a lot more VTIP than ZROZ in that account. My funds that are specifically allocated to retirement and are fixed income will all be all in STRIPS once I can roll them over to another account. I'm using the TSP F Fund (Total Bond Market) as a portion of my fixed income al...
by gtwhitegold
Tue Jan 10, 2023 9:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Do You Like My New 'Doo
Replies: 350
Views: 76238

Re: How Do You Like My New 'Doo

I can understand the timidity with the allocation to longer duration funds. I have an 8% allocation to fixed income in my portfolio overall and I also have a barbell strategy with my fixed income allocation. I try to own STRIPS in funds like ZROZ in the accounts where I can and I have VTIP and ZROZ in my third tier rainy day fund, similarly set up to how vineviz recommended using a retirement income fund in one of his threads that I can't seem to find right now. I just have a lot more VTIP than ZROZ in that account. My funds that are specifically allocated to retirement and are fixed income will all be all in STRIPS once I can roll them over to another account. I'm using the TSP F Fund (Total Bond Market) as a portion of my fixed income all...
by gtwhitegold
Mon Jan 09, 2023 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TxAggie's Avantis Adventure
Replies: 89
Views: 16047

Re: TxAggie's Avantis Adventure

Am I the only one who feels like this portfolio + intermediate treasury is a much smoother ride than being 100% MCW? It looks to me like the risk showed up from 2017-2021, and during that period the portfolio still returned around 8.65% vs 14.71% 60/40 TSM/TISM. As bad as the outperformance was, 8.65% is nothing to scoff at. But from 1999-2016, it returned 11.77% vs 5.23%. And during the lost decade of 99-09, 12.73% vs 2.91%. And now with the big tech crash happening it's -6.21% vs -18.18% since Jan 2022. This portfolio looks a lot more bubble proof than MCW. Just looking at DFA funds, this portfolio looks much smoother no? What makes this portfolio so much more "riskier" than MCW What am I missing? Higher drawdowns and larger da...
by gtwhitegold
Mon Jan 09, 2023 12:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Check my understanding of tax-efficient fund placement
Replies: 53
Views: 5319

Re: Check my understanding of tax-efficient fund placement

Re: "replace [BND] with tax-exempt muni's) in taxable", I've read quite a few times from fellow Bogleheads that even in taxable, munis may not make sense until/unless someone is in a 30+% tax bracket. For the investor with a <30% tax bracket, the tax outcome tends to favor investing in BND or similar, as opposed to munis. Then again, most of the comments I've read about this were made when expected bond yields were much lower. The math may be different now. There should be a break-even tax rate (I estimate 25%), at which muni and taxable bonds of comparable risk have the same after-tax yield. Investors in higher brackets buy munis; investors in lower brackets, and tax-sheltered investors, buy taxable bonds. Therefore, the supply ...
by gtwhitegold
Sat Jan 07, 2023 4:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Do You Like My New 'Doo
Replies: 350
Views: 76238

Re: How Do You Like My New 'Doo

Best of luck with your GE spin-offs. I don't really know enough about any individual company to buy stock. I got really lucky back around 1998-1999 and bought AMD around 15 and sold it at around 50 after they released their new processor after reading an article about the new chip. Somehow I decided that stock picking wasn't for me, I guess I I always knew that I had just gotten lucky. That was the only stock I have ever bought and I highly doubt that I will ever buy any other individual stocks. I am not betting the farm on GE and its spin-offs, my investments there will be pretty minor in the overall scheme of things. Having worked in a healthcare system, I was impressed with the technology of diagnostic equipment, and I knew GE was and i...
by gtwhitegold
Fri Jan 06, 2023 12:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Do You Like My New 'Doo
Replies: 350
Views: 76238

Re: How Do You Like My New 'Doo

Best of luck with your GE spin-offs. I don't really know enough about any individual company to buy stock. I got really lucky back around 1998-1999 and bought AMD around 15 and sold it at around 50 after they released their new processor after reading an article about the new chip. Somehow I decided that stock picking wasn't for me, I guess I I always knew that I had just gotten lucky. That was the only stock I have ever bought and I highly doubt that I will ever buy any other individual stocks.
by gtwhitegold
Fri Jan 06, 2023 12:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio
Replies: 354
Views: 92827

Re: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio

This thread has been hugely informative to my financial thinking, but there seem to be two issues worth discussing a bit more fully. First, recent events have suggested that reliance on long term US treasuries is at least partially built on the assumption that the US dollar will continue to be the world's reserve currency, and long-term treasuries worth the weight of the bedrock status it holds in this portfolio. If its status as the reserve currency is eroding, the fundamental strategy would need to be rethought, though I can't guess as to how. Thoughts on this might be worth pursuing. Second, the rise of China as the next-in-line replacement to the US as the bedrock of the world's economic order probably should be discussed a bit. Invest...
by gtwhitegold
Sun Dec 25, 2022 8:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How would you modify AVGE (Avantis All Equity Markets ETF)?
Replies: 35
Views: 3840

Re: How would you modify AVGE (Avantis All Equity Markets ETF)?

Avantis is not going to change their new fund to satisfy my peculiarities, that's for sure. But if they were to come out with a global high small-value-quality factor loading fund at low enough cost, I could be interested enough to use it to implement my modest tilt, instead of using the three funds I use now. Total world plus total world-factor would be simpler than the four funds I use now, and I have a predilection for a simpler portfolio. But I doubt that enough people want such a fund to tempt them to start one. There are thousands of etfs for all sorts of weird stock and theme groupings, but no global small value etf. I conclude that demand for what I want is confined to more or less me, and, as in other facets of life, I will have t...
by gtwhitegold
Sun Aug 21, 2022 12:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock market from 2000 - 2013
Replies: 99
Views: 6293

Re: Stock market from 2000 - 2013

The current stock prices reflect the future earnings and not the past earnings, which CAPE10 is using. Comparing the current stock price with the 12M-forward earnings is better and with that you will see a different picture. The black line are the forward earnings per share: I agree with this statement. However, the market may misprice the "future" earnings a lot. The mispricing of the "future" earnings is the main factor that contributes to the volatility of the stock price. I would also argue that this mispricing is also likely a leading cause of value and quality factors. People like to think that they know more about companies than the average person which leads them to make speculative bets on low quality growth co...
by gtwhitegold
Wed Aug 10, 2022 6:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 5527
Views: 555128

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

4K AVUV 4K AVDV 2K AVES Personally, I would use FEMS and EYLD for EM exposure since they are smaller and still very valuey. I'm splitting my EM allocation between DEMSX in my employer's account and EYLD and FEMS in my IRA and taxable accounts. I wouldn't argue with the recommendation for AVES however. AVES is still quite small. The weighted avg market cap is like 16B. The value effect is more important than size imho. DFEVX had kind of proven this out as over the last 20 years has some of the highest premiums. I've looked at these two as well -- anyone else have thoughts here? Some observations: -Expense ratios are pretty high on both, 0.65 for EYLD and 0.8 for FEMS -FEMS is about 20% allocated to Turkey -- very different from other EM fun...
by gtwhitegold
Wed Aug 03, 2022 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Looking for a Tax-Managed Small Cap Blend Fund
Replies: 12
Views: 832

Re: Looking for a Tax-Managed Small Cap Blend Fund

Any core small cap ETF should work. Some examples that come to mind are:

DFAS - DFA Small Cap ETF
VIOO - Vanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 ETF
ISCB - iShares Morningstar Small-Cap ETF

Most ETFs do not distribute much in capital gains. What you may need to watch out for is dividend yield for whichever fund you choose.
by gtwhitegold
Fri Jul 29, 2022 8:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Modified versions of HFEA with ITT and Futures / Lifecycle Investing with Modern Portfolio Theory
Replies: 2404
Views: 246331

Re: Rebalancing bands

From what I have seen, there aren't any good small cap value future contract options available. From what I have seen, your best bet in the small cap space is SMC, which tracks the S&P 600 index, so it has a quality tilt vice a junk tilt like the Russell 2000. The S&P 600 follows the same methodology as the S&P500 just small cap instead of large cap, doesn't it? If yes, then it would have practically no factor tilt except very minimal filtering out of very low quality companies. You'd be surprised. The S&P SmallCap 600 gets you about halfway to the actual value indices, and when you're leveraging that exposure, that ain't too shabby. The factor loads are below, so it looks pretty good, especially if you are leveraging it. h...
by gtwhitegold
Wed Jul 27, 2022 10:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 5527
Views: 555128

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Nathan Drake wrote: Wed Jul 27, 2022 6:53 pm
bluerafters wrote: Wed Jul 27, 2022 6:16 pm $10k tomorrow morning in SCV only: Where do you start? Assume a 10-15-20 year runway.
4K AVUV
4K AVDV
2K AVES
Personally, I would use FEMS and EYLD for EM exposure since they are smaller and still very valuey. I'm splitting my EM allocation between DEMSX in my employer's account and EYLD and FEMS in my IRA and taxable accounts. I wouldn't argue with the recommendation for AVES however.
by gtwhitegold
Wed Jul 27, 2022 9:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Modified versions of HFEA with ITT and Futures / Lifecycle Investing with Modern Portfolio Theory
Replies: 2404
Views: 246331

Re: Rebalancing bands

That is for IRAs and maybe for 401(k)s. In taxable accounts you have more options for the borrowing part and you can factor tilt all your equities. 100%, this is what I've landed on. I'm keeping my IRA simple between MES and ZT/ZF until it grows enough to allow wiggle-room in international futures. Meanwhile, my taxable is entirely global SCV with 55% US allocation. If the jury is still out on how much SCV is the right amount, then I prefer to lean fully in the direction that captures SCV's lower correlation with bonds. Here's hoping we get that SCV futures contract one day! From what I have seen, there aren't any good small cap value future contract options available. From what I have seen, your best bet in the small cap space is SMC, whi...
by gtwhitegold
Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Avantis worldwide ETF with value tilt
Replies: 779
Views: 81233

Re: New Avantis worldwide ETF with value tilt

The ER (to be determined) for Avantis All Equity Markets (AVGE) would need to be zero; otherwise, I don't see how this works. The underlying funds all have their ERs. If the wrapper fund has an additional layer of fees, that would make the fund of funds unattractive. i'm assuming you don't mean the e.r. should be $0 but rather it should have $0 ADDITIONAL fees with regards to what the individual funds cost. However, doesn't the combo of vti at 0.03% and vxus at 0.07% at their weights, say 60% and 40%, respectively cost (if hold as two fund portfolio): (.03% X 60%) + (.07% X 40%) 0.018% + 0.028% = 0.046% total (or 4.6 bps) vs 0.07% or 7 bps for VT? how is that any different in that an all world fund with vanguard IS slightly more expensive ...