Bogleheads.org

fanmail

That is interesting context, thanks.

fanmail

S&p futures are more than 12% off the lows in 14 trading sessions. That is huge move up.

fanmail

longinvest wrote: ↑
Tue Jan 01, 2019 6:33 pm

fanmail wrote: ↑
Tue Jan 01, 2019 6:31 pm
About .3% so far
The market isn't even trading! How did you do that in the few hours of 2019?

Futures markets are open now

fanmail

About .3% so far

fanmail

2716.50

fanmail

Yes, this is good feedback guys. Thank you. I will read into it further.

fanmail

Tried a few searches and wasn’t quite able to find what I needed. Wondering what the asset allocation is and total $ invested is for all investors in the world combined. Does anyone have a good source for that information?

fanmail

30 year TIPS yield about 1% so that what I'd go with for bonds. Historically global equites have returned about 4% more than bonds, so 5% real for equities. That’s close to what I am using. 7% equity 3.5% fixed 2% inflation Subject to roughly 2% swings in either direction. So a 50/50 portfolio woul...

fanmail

FIREchief wrote: ↑
Mon Dec 31, 2018 4:14 pm

FIREchief wrote: ↑
Mon Dec 24, 2018 5:21 pm
2351. I think we just hit the low.
Did I win??

Way too early to tell, but a decent possibility given the subsequent action.

fanmail

Earl Lemongrab wrote: ↑
Thu Dec 27, 2018 4:39 pm
If you knew in advance what the market was going to do, then sitting in cash would be a bad move. You should be using leverage to buy options that earn a lot more money than buying up depressed stocks later.

But you don't know.

aye

fanmail

Whatever happens, at least we have now officially had a “bear market” and will no longer have to endure tedious posts about “longest bull market/most hated bull market/this bull market is long in the tooth” We didn’t though. If you use the closing definition of bear markets it only got to 19.8% so ...

fanmail

Futures down about 1.5%. Will be interesting to see if additional tax loss harvesting and other selling continues or if the dip is bought and the recent lows hold.

fanmail

He bought the etf this morning when the market was barely up.

fanmail

I have some VTI that I will sell you for $150.

fanmail

I lost $85,000 of new money invested 15 days ago. At this point it doesn't matter anymore if I'm "comfortable" with my asset allocation, this is a serious loss by any standard. Update: I’m now approaching a $110,000 loss. I won’t be able to handle this for much longer. No offense but you should hav...

fanmail

market timer wrote: ↑
Wed Dec 05, 2018 6:03 am

J G Bankerton wrote: ↑
Wed Dec 05, 2018 4:27 am
Good thing US markets are closed. Europe and Asia are still freefalling. I don't have any money left to buy dips anyway.
International markets just following Tuesday's action in the US. US equity futures are trading right now and up about 0.5% since Tuesday's close.

+1

fanmail

ReformedSpender wrote: ↑
Mon Dec 03, 2018 10:05 am
S&P opened up over +1.5% this morning. Here is a list of all other occurrences in the past ~30 years. Quite rare!

Somehow that seems wrong that we haven't opened up over 1.5% in the last 18 years.

fanmail

Interesting read. But what does the nominal look like? Obviously 4% of 1MM is 40k, but if you can't live on 20K per year, and you're pulling 4% of 500k after a market crash, how does that look?

fanmail

3. Those who are heavily leveraged either in their portfolios or real estate.
4. Those who are barely employable and would be impacted by layoffs.

Either of these groups can overlap with the first 2.

fanmail

It's easy to buy stocks nowadays - literally anybody with a cell phone and a bank account can invest. On the flip side, it's just as easy to sell. This is hilarious though - the S&P started the year around 2695 - today (after all the hype) it's at what, 2880 ? S&P down 52 points, DOW down 2% is not...

fanmail

Put another way, you’re a decamillionaire who is slaving away for less than $100/hour. You’ve got serious FU money so utilize it.

fanmail

I don't understand the OP's issue. $58K in "reduced" pension, $1 million in tax deferred portfolio. Eventually at age 70, another $40K in Social Security benefit ignoring what their spouse does. Only $25K of housing cost and it sounds like much of it is co-op/condo/HOA fees since the mortgage amoun...

fanmail

student wrote: ↑
Sun Sep 16, 2018 2:09 pm
Now that you have posted the numbers, please retire and enjoy life.

yep done

fanmail

I understand that you do not want to divulge too much company information but it will be helpful if you tell us your net worth. It makes a difference. If you have $10 millions and you are spending $400k, I would say retire and spend less. If you have $1 million and you are spending $40k, then it is...

fanmail

Case Shiller avoids this issue by using repeat sales of the same properties. Peak index in Mar 2006 of 219, with a low 3 years later in May 2009 of 119. (46% drop) Ouch! https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SFXRSA It is important to understand those numbers. They are for San Francisco, Marin, San Mat...

fanmail

I will be buying a car soon. I can afford to pay cash up front. The dealer says I’m eligible for 0.9% financing for 3 years. No change in price whether paying by cash or loan. Would you take a car loan that you didn’t need? My only other debt is a home mortgage with after tax interest rate of 1.7% ...

fanmail

Hi all, I will be getting married next month. Me and the fiancée are both investing and paying down student loans in accordance with the boglehead way. Now I am here for guidance as to what actions should be taken financially after marriage. Do we continue investing/saving/ paying down our student ...

fanmail

Just quietly decline the new job offer without trying to get some kind of a counter from your current employer. You likely only have a chance of having the counter-offer routine work once with an individual employer, save it for some occassion where there is really a substantially better offer with...

fanmail

Kevin, your posts on fixed income are always appreciated and educational for beginners on up to more experienced investors.

fanmail

Can you rent something closer to work now and save more before buying? I agree with the posters regarding using caution in this situation.

fanmail

Sometimes I get the impression that they are using it to suggest the future direction of the market. S&P 500 futures _are_ the market. There is more trading (about $350 billion per day) in S&P 500 futures than in all the US stocks combined (about $300 billion per day) The S&P 500 index, a S&P 500 m...

fanmail

Some pretty wild swings in the market. Guessing we will see continued choppiness and volatility, which has been absent for so long. Surprised at the resiliency of the market after the 10% plus sell-off in a few days.

fanmail

Dow futures are now over 13% off the highs.

fanmail

Hey, guess what? It's still a little more likely that Mr. Market is UP tomorrow and not DOWN. According to Crestmont, over the last 50 years the market has been up about 54% of the days and down 46%. Even in bear market periods, it has been up 51% of the days and down 49%. It's not the number of UP...

fanmail

Aaaaand, the beat goes on... as of 9:35 PM Eastern, Australia is down almost 3%, Japan is down over 5%, and U.S. S&P 500 e-mini is down a percent and a half. Looks like tuck and roll tomorrow. :shock: SP futures closed this afternoon 1.5 below the index so that 1.5% move down, which is now 2% btw, ...

fanmail

Aaaaand, the beat goes on... as of 9:35 PM Eastern, Australia is down almost 3%, Japan is down over 5%, and U.S. S&P 500 e-mini is down a percent and a half. Looks like tuck and roll tomorrow. :shock: SP futures closed this afternoon 1.5 below the index so that 1.5% move down, which is now 2% btw, ...

fanmail

Tuesday early indications are another RBD. Prices subject to change.

fanmail

FYI futures markets are implying another 3% dip right now from Monday’s close.

fanmail

what goes up 2650% in 1 year must come down

fanmail

If all the financial media, pundits, analysts and experts told the truth: that they don't know what's going to happen or when... there would be no more financial media, pundits, analysts and experts. They are collectively as useful as a screen door on a submarine. +1 Thanks. That's a good one. "Tal...

fanmail

Yep, VT is it. The ultimate boglehead ETF, buys the same % of every incorporated company in the world. I've never looked too hard at this before, but that isn't quite true. Quick evidence: Vanguard's Total Stock (domestic) fund has 3619 stock holdings, Total International Stock fund has 6123 stock ...

fanmail

lostdog wrote:It's interesting that people say no but then they choose to not pay off their mortgage when they have the cash but rather invest it. Isn't that the same thing?

At much higher interest rates no less.

fanmail

VXUS opened 0.30 lower today with an announced 0.39 dividend. VTI opened 0.32 lower today with an announced 0.727 dividend. Makes sense with stocks being up at the open that they weren't down as much as the dividend. Maybe I need to use some other way besides looking at 9:30 price on the ticker in ...

fanmail

Long story short, there's no free lunch from dividends, nor do unsuspecting investors get screwed by the timing.

fanmail

VXUS opened 0.30 lower today with an announced 0.39 dividend.
VTI opened 0.32 lower today with an announced 0.727 dividend.
Makes sense with stocks being up at the open that they weren't down as much as the dividend.

fanmail

Does not matter to me if you cancel. The responses you are getting are a little surprising. I thought bogleheads philosophy was time in the market, not timing the market. Yes, but ETFs trade just like stocks. And while you might want to get in at $10 a share, it is quite possible that the market ca...

fanmail

Does not matter to me if you cancel. The responses you are getting are a little surprising. I thought bogleheads philosophy was time in the market, not timing the market.

fanmail

Gold is a commodity, so it's speculative and supply/demand driven. It is treated by traders as a risk off tool. Crazy people think it is the only real money.

There is no longterm +EV, so it has no real place in passive investing in my opinion.

fanmail

I honestly don't know. The one thing I'm not seeing here so far is people saying things like, "When I place $300K trades, I do X". Lots folks here will have good suggestions based on actual experience on how to trade 100 or 200 shares of BND. 4000 shares may well be different. Just did the math. BN...

fanmail

Kevin's response above my post should be stickied for the brilliant simplicity and reminder of how bonds function. Always a good reminder during turbulent times.

Search found 299 matches