Bogleheads.org

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Some pretty wild swings in the market. Guessing we will see continued choppiness and volatility, which has been absent for so long. Surprised at the resiliency of the market after the 10% plus sell-off in a few days.

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Dow futures are now over 13% off the highs.

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Hey, guess what? It's still a little more likely that Mr. Market is UP tomorrow and not DOWN. According to Crestmont, over the last 50 years the market has been up about 54% of the days and down 46%. Even in bear market periods, it has been up 51% of the days and down 49%. It's not the number of UP...

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Aaaaand, the beat goes on... as of 9:35 PM Eastern, Australia is down almost 3%, Japan is down over 5%, and U.S. S&P 500 e-mini is down a percent and a half. Looks like tuck and roll tomorrow. :shock: SP futures closed this afternoon 1.5 below the index so that 1.5% move down, which is now 2% btw, ...

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Aaaaand, the beat goes on... as of 9:35 PM Eastern, Australia is down almost 3%, Japan is down over 5%, and U.S. S&P 500 e-mini is down a percent and a half. Looks like tuck and roll tomorrow. :shock: SP futures closed this afternoon 1.5 below the index so that 1.5% move down, which is now 2% btw, ...

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Tuesday early indications are another RBD. Prices subject to change.

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FYI futures markets are implying another 3% dip right now from Monday’s close.

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what goes up 2650% in 1 year must come down

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If all the financial media, pundits, analysts and experts told the truth: that they don't know what's going to happen or when... there would be no more financial media, pundits, analysts and experts. They are collectively as useful as a screen door on a submarine. +1 Thanks. That's a good one. "Tal...

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Yep, VT is it. The ultimate boglehead ETF, buys the same % of every incorporated company in the world. I've never looked too hard at this before, but that isn't quite true. Quick evidence: Vanguard's Total Stock (domestic) fund has 3619 stock holdings, Total International Stock fund has 6123 stock ...

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lostdog wrote:It's interesting that people say no but then they choose to not pay off their mortgage when they have the cash but rather invest it. Isn't that the same thing?

At much higher interest rates no less.

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VXUS opened 0.30 lower today with an announced 0.39 dividend. VTI opened 0.32 lower today with an announced 0.727 dividend. Makes sense with stocks being up at the open that they weren't down as much as the dividend. Maybe I need to use some other way besides looking at 9:30 price on the ticker in ...

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Long story short, there's no free lunch from dividends, nor do unsuspecting investors get screwed by the timing.

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VXUS opened 0.30 lower today with an announced 0.39 dividend.
VTI opened 0.32 lower today with an announced 0.727 dividend.
Makes sense with stocks being up at the open that they weren't down as much as the dividend.

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Does not matter to me if you cancel. The responses you are getting are a little surprising. I thought bogleheads philosophy was time in the market, not timing the market. Yes, but ETFs trade just like stocks. And while you might want to get in at $10 a share, it is quite possible that the market ca...

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Does not matter to me if you cancel. The responses you are getting are a little surprising. I thought bogleheads philosophy was time in the market, not timing the market.

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Gold is a commodity, so it's speculative and supply/demand driven. It is treated by traders as a risk off tool. Crazy people think it is the only real money.

There is no longterm +EV, so it has no real place in passive investing in my opinion.

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I honestly don't know. The one thing I'm not seeing here so far is people saying things like, "When I place $300K trades, I do X". Lots folks here will have good suggestions based on actual experience on how to trade 100 or 200 shares of BND. 4000 shares may well be different. Just did the math. BN...

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Kevin's response above my post should be stickied for the brilliant simplicity and reminder of how bonds function. Always a good reminder during turbulent times.

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The year to date total return of Vanguard total bond is about 5%. More to the point the growth of $10,000 for VBMFX is here: http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-return.action?t=VBMFX®ion=usa&culture=en_US The investor can decide if this is unsatisfactory behavior or not. That YTD...

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I believe the term is risk averse.

In the US, the $20 has been the most commonly counterfeited.

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Locking in a price now for a future expense, sounds like a hedge. You could buy gld or some other etf, and then sell it when it's time to get the physical. Just keep in mind that you're locking in a price, so you should be happy with that price regardless of what price does between your etf hedge an...

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I read the book a long time ago, at least fifteen years ago. My recollection is that I didn't think that much of it, although I can't remember why. It's funny you say that because I thought the same thing when I read it. I had heard so many people recommend it, I thought it was going to be life-cha...

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What powers the electronic device that you are engaging in this discussion on?

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This is a 7 year cd, right? You forgot to mention that.

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flyersrule wrote:
fanmail wrote:Yeah, those are Friday's prices. Futures markets will open at 6 est.
http://m.investing.com/indices/indices-futures

Why are these changing then?

6 pm est, so yeah they should have been changing at midnight.

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Yeah, those are Friday's prices. Futures markets will open at 6 est.

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S&P futures now down 100 points.

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Brexit is bringing this thread back, unfortunately. Futures down 3% right now. Pound getting destroyed. Bonds getting bought like crazy.

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Grabiner, I got 6% from the portion I bolded. You said hold a mortgage while investing in a bond portfolio generating 1K/month for less than 200K invested. That seems unrealistic in current rate world. That is not a 6% yield, because you would deplete the portfolio over time, ending the withdrawals...

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Grabiner, I got 6% from the portion I bolded. You said hold a mortgage while investing in a bond portfolio generating 1K/month for less than 200K invested. That seems unrealistic in current rate world.

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If I die with a mortgage, I'll still be happy. The problem with retiring with a mortgage (and keeping until you die) is that this increases your required investments for retirement MORE than the loan itself (assuming you're going by the 4% rule). The 4% rule assumes inflation-adjusted withdrawals, ...

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Lackey said what I was going to say much more eloquently. In particular, the Japanese and other markets which did not and are not following the 'stocks always recover' rule. There are some macro factors that make the US different from Japan/Italy/Greece etc, but stocks don't always win in the long r...

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The demand in Seattle is a byproduct of very high population growth and very high economic growth/job growth. There are many people moving there and a lot of them are for good, high paying jobs. Thus demand is outstripping supply and prices are rising rapidly while inventory stays very low. That's ...

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Darling son.

OP, please try to avoid touching the inheritance if you can.

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Boardwalk Empire would probably be worth your time as well.

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Soli wrote:Not HBO, but two series I liked very much are Fargo (both seasons are great) and Better Call Saul (prequel to Breaking Bad).

Better Call Saul is the best show on tv right now. I highly recommend it to anyone who likes darker stuff.

As for OP, I would go Deadwood.

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There is no such thing as a level playing field.

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That's dangerous for several reasons. Are you withdrawing 1k/day from an atm? What does the recipient do with that kind of cash?

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The fed hasn't raised rates in 2016. They raised a .25% in Dec 15. They may raise again in June or Sept probably the same .25%. There is also not a direct correlation between fed overnight rate and 5 year CD rates, either. Long story short, nobody knows nothin, so buy your next one whenever.

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At a casino

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Do you know your annual expenses and what you expect them to be in retirement? If you have 30x expenses or more, you are well on your way. You could use a retirement calculator like firecalc to simulate whether you have enough, using estimates for social security, etc.

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If you think stocks are going down 70% or more, you should be massively short right now.

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All of this says nothing of the fact that your monthly payment will be roughly double your rent.

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I can't predict bubbles, but house price/income ratio is steeper and has risen faster there than just about anywhere in the US. If you can find a house that's 5x cheaper and a job that's 2x less and you have millions behind you when you go, seems like a smart decision to me.

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Personally, I would try to keep banking $250k/year and not chase housing prices higher. In several years, you will be multi-millionaires and can move to anywhere else and start lives with new jobs in great school districts that you aren't priced out of. I say this as a casual observer of what appear...

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reriodan wrote:breathe

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Then why do sellers have to agree and sign the buyer's contract to make a sale a contractual agreement? Seems like an unnecessary step if all it takes is a buyer matching the listing price. The listing price is not a blank piece of paper for any buyer to just sign and buy at full price.

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.95 * (value of inputs / # of inputs) - any mortgage debt = equity

Inputs can include purchase price, county assessment, zestimate, comps, independent appraisal. .95 assumes 5% realtor fees. You can adjust the formula to fit your situation.

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Both the Citi 1%+1% and new Fidelity Visa 2% are good everywhere. We use the Amex Blue Preferred for 6% on groceries and PenFed's 5% Gas Card. Certain quarters I will use Discover for 5% on resturants and such. It's a game and I like to play it for > $2130 in CASH rewards last year. this is how it ...

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