Search found 201 matches

by Bob
Thu Dec 12, 2019 8:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Federal Budget Deficit Risks and Investment Strategy
Replies: 16
Views: 813

Re: Federal Budget Deficit Risks and Investment Strategy

sport wrote:
Thu Dec 12, 2019 5:32 pm
Bob wrote:
Thu Dec 12, 2019 4:46 pm
We are invested very conservatively (e.g.: 25% bonds/75% equities)
This is not "very conservative" for retirees. Do you mean 25% equities/75% bonds?
Thank you! Good catch. :oops:
Yes, 25% equities/75% bonds?
by Bob
Thu Dec 12, 2019 4:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Federal Budget Deficit Risks and Investment Strategy
Replies: 16
Views: 813

Re: Federal Budget Deficit Risks and Investment Strategy

What, specifically, are you worried about? My worries are two-fold, as lised later in this post. For context, we are a married couple who retired 2-3 years ago and we derive 2/3 of the funds we need to cover our expenses from our investments. We are invested very conservatively (e.g.: 25% bonds/75%...
by Bob
Thu Dec 12, 2019 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Federal Budget Deficit Risks and Investment Strategy
Replies: 16
Views: 813

Federal Budget Deficit Risks and Investment Strategy

If one was worried about the rising Federal Budget Deficits and National Debt, how would one invest and why? I definitiely am not looking for a political discussion but am wondering what and why might one invest to reduce the personal income and investment risks for a person early in their in retire...
by Bob
Wed Sep 18, 2019 6:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Potential usefulness of TIPS to conservative retirees: How to beat a 3% SWR
Replies: 46
Views: 2634

Re: Potential usefulness of TIPS to conservative retirees: How to beat a 3% SWR

Would an alternative to a TIPs ladder such as investing in a TIPs fund (e.g. Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Fund, VAIPX) work similarly?
by Bob
Tue Sep 17, 2019 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Potential usefulness of TIPS to conservative retirees: How to beat a 3% SWR
Replies: 46
Views: 2634

Re: Potential usefulness of TIPS to conservative retirees

Interesting idea. Would you please explain (show) how you calculate the result of an approximately 3.5% guaranteed , 30 year SWR with the assumption that TIPS have an average 0.3% real yield? Thanks.
by Bob
Sun Jun 30, 2019 3:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why isn't the distribution yield a valuable number? (for VWIUX)
Replies: 37
Views: 2804

Re: Why isn't the distribution yield a valuable number? (for VWIUX)

As a long term holder of VWIUX, I look less at the "percentage yield" statistics but more at the dividends per share. As they drop (like other rates) so does the income we would like to count on to pay bills. ;(

Image
by Bob
Mon Mar 25, 2019 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SWR advice from EarlyRetirementNow.com
Replies: 6
Views: 1341

Re: SWR advice from EarlyRetirementNow.com

Perhaps this 2016 study by W. Pfau comparing SWR by country offers a perspective.

https://retirementresearcher.com/4-rule ... und-world/
by Bob
Sun Nov 04, 2018 6:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Medicare IRMAA
Replies: 21
Views: 2676

Re: Medicare IRMAA

Yes, it can be recalculated each year so would not be permanent.
by Bob
Wed Oct 24, 2018 7:48 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Corporate vs Muni default rate
Replies: 3
Views: 564

Re: Corporate vs Muni default rate

One source says:

Average Default Rates for Munis = 0.18%
Average Default Rates for Corporate =1.74%

Source: Moody’s Investment-Grade, 10 year cumulative default rates average over the period 2007–2016

Link to document: http://www.msrb.org/msrb1/pdfs/MSRB-Muni-Facts.pdf
by Bob
Sat Oct 06, 2018 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities
Replies: 198
Views: 12494

Re: Alan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities

I have not run the numbers on this scenario but I wonder if a strategy that starts with a CD-based approach and then has a trigger for when to buy an annuity (if ever) might be the best of all options? When I have time, I'll look into that. I am not sure if the right trigger would be one spouse dyin...
by Bob
Sat Oct 06, 2018 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities
Replies: 198
Views: 12494

Re: Alan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities

Yes, an approach using CDs could "fail". For people age 70, 20% of men and 33% women are expected to be alive at age 90. However, only 10% of the time do both partners in a couple achieve age 90 together. But if one is in that "lucky" group that lives past 90, it could be a BIG problem if adjustment...
by Bob
Sat Oct 06, 2018 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities
Replies: 198
Views: 12494

Re: Alan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities

It does not take much to show that annuities are a financial scam on consumers -- totally legal just like payday lenders in most states. Scam #1: They are advertised featuring "payout rates" which most consumers compare to CD rates because most people do not know better even after they read the fine...
by Bob
Wed Oct 03, 2018 3:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Would Selling VWIUX to Buy MUB be a Wash Sale?
Replies: 6
Views: 650

Re: Would Selling VWIUX to Buy MUB be a Wash Sale?

IMHO, not a wash sale but look out for the 6 month rule of wash sales involving muni bond funds. VWIUX is not included in this because it accrues dividends daily and distributes monthly. However, I don't know if MUB does the same. If that is an issue, just TLH into another VG bond fund. Thanks to a...
by Bob
Wed Oct 03, 2018 12:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Would Selling VWIUX to Buy MUB be a Wash Sale?
Replies: 6
Views: 650

Would Selling VWIUX to Buy MUB be a Wash Sale?

I believe the answer is " no " but I wanted to get feedback as to if I am correct? VWIUX (Vanguard Intermediate-Term Tax-Exempt Fund mutual fund) is actively managed. MUB (iShares National Muni Bond ETF) tracks the S&P National AMT-Free Municipal Bond Index. So even though both are broadly diversifi...
by Bob
Tue Sep 25, 2018 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation and withdrawal from portfolio
Replies: 23
Views: 1065

Re: Inflation and withdrawal from portfolio

As one way to answer your question you could use the online tools for back-testing called Firecalc or CFiresim to see how he would have fared in the past. Since you only provide the percent of his total investment returns he spent in the last year, I can't guess at the actual levels or his starting ...
by Bob
Sun Sep 09, 2018 9:11 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Looking for info on Stifel
Replies: 5
Views: 891

Re: Looking for info on Stifel

Thank you all for your info.
by Bob
Fri Sep 07, 2018 5:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Looking for info on Stifel
Replies: 5
Views: 891

Looking for info on Stifel

A friend's widowed mother who is in her 80's has all her assets managed by Stifel and asked if they were a good firm for her to use. Does anyone have any experience with them? I have not been able to find much about them or their costs other than the firm dates from before 1900.
by Bob
Mon Sep 03, 2018 7:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Playing with Callan's periodic tables of investment returns
Replies: 81
Views: 8984

Re: Playing with Callan's periodic tables of investment returns

Thank you for developing and sharing this tool. Very interesting and helps me look at my portfolio nominal and real returns in a better contexr.
Great stuff !
by Bob
Tue Aug 07, 2018 8:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US and UK Deep History: Safe Withdrawal Rates
Replies: 38
Views: 3706

Re: US and UK Deep History: Safe Withdrawal Rates

As noted by CurlyDave, one of the take-aways may be that SWR seems to go up and down with some periodicity. So it made me wonder if the ups and downs correlate to anything? And if they do, would that correlation be useful in predicting current year SWR? Some people on this forum tend to go ballisti...
by Bob
Sun Aug 05, 2018 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US and UK Deep History: Safe Withdrawal Rates
Replies: 38
Views: 3706

Re: US and UK Deep History: Safe Withdrawal Rates

Very interesting analysis. Many things one can take-away from this work. Thank you for sharing your work. As noted by CurlyDave, one of the take-aways may be that SWR seems to go up and down with some periodicity. So it made me wonder if the ups and downs correlate to anything? And if they do, would...
by Bob
Thu Aug 02, 2018 5:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Matter-scatter, part 4: Bond allocation
Replies: 9
Views: 2578

Re: Matter-scatter, part 4: Bond allocation

Great analysis and much appreciate that you have shared it with us all.

1+ CaliJim's suggestion (request?) that this would be a great analysis to see for a decumulation scenario. Specifically for the bond allocation aspect.
by Bob
Thu Aug 02, 2018 5:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SWR 2.5% --how much equity required?
Replies: 9
Views: 1433

Re: SWR 2.5% --how much equity required?

There is a great tool to investigate your question on this web site. It is the "Simba Backtesting" excel spreadsheet discussed at: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=2753812#p2753812 and with the downloadable tool (spreadsheet) at: https://goo.gl/cS3SZG On the "Compare Portfolios" tab ...
by Bob
Wed Jul 11, 2018 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Six stocks make up 98% of S&P 500 gains in 2018
Replies: 100
Views: 16923

Re: Six stocks make up 98% of S&P 500 gains in 2018

FWIW, looking at the 500 companies in the S&P500 individually (as of close yesterday): * 268 are up year-to-date and 236 are down (53% are up YTD and 47% are down). * 67 (or 13%) of the "up" stocks were up 20% of more YTD. * Of those that are up YTD, median amount is about 11% and ranges from +0.02...
by Bob
Wed Jul 11, 2018 8:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Six stocks make up 98% of S&P 500 gains in 2018
Replies: 100
Views: 16923

Re: Six stocks make up 98% of S&P 500 gains in 2018

FWIW, looking at the 500 companies in the S&P500 individually (as of close yesterday): * 268 are up year-to-date and 236 are down (53% are up YTD and 47% are down). * 67 (or 13%) of the "up" stocks were up 20% of more YTD. * Of those that are up YTD, median amount is about 11% and ranges from +0.02%...
by Bob
Wed Jul 04, 2018 6:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 1147
Views: 691340

Re: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]

Thank you ! Happy 4th of July to U and everyone who supports this great effort. It is appreciated.
by Bob
Thu Jun 28, 2018 9:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When does purchasing equities lose its marginal utility?
Replies: 48
Views: 2884

Re: When does purchasing equities lose its marginal utility?

All the above is good discussion that makes me feel that it would be useful to have a clear set of items and formula for the "marginal utility." The OP says that "having more money" has little utility so perhaps reducing all the risks that his expense projections are wrong would add utility (a benef...
by Bob
Mon Jun 25, 2018 4:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Florida Estate Planning
Replies: 8
Views: 748

Re: Florida Estate Planning

A "cheap" and easy way to create a living trust is using Nolo, but as I cautioned, the much bigger expense may be after you die when the beneficiary (or personal rep) has to pay a lawyer to help administer the trust which is the way trusts are handled in lieu of going through probate. Without dealin...
by Bob
Mon Jun 25, 2018 3:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Florida Estate Planning
Replies: 8
Views: 748

Re: Florida Estate Planning

In Florida if you want to avoid probate and create a living trust with most of your assets in it then it usually makes sense to leave as little as possible out of the trust so a small pour-over will can be used. A gotcha the grantor was not aware of and that we ran into in Florida were the high lawy...
by Bob
Sat Jun 16, 2018 7:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rate hikes vs - Muni, Corp, Total Bond funds
Replies: 18
Views: 2952

Re: Rate hikes vs - Muni, Corp, Total Bond funds

Grabiner,
Thank you for your good point and explanation. What would you recommend is the best way to look at a bond fund like VWIUX (Intermediate Muni) over time in light of the changing Federal Funds Rate?
Bob
by Bob
Thu Jun 14, 2018 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rate hikes vs - Muni, Corp, Total Bond funds
Replies: 18
Views: 2952

Re: Rate hikes vs - Muni, Corp, Total Bond funds

ps56k,
Thanks for asking the question!
It triggered me finally looking at this. It was something I should have looked into myself earlier.
Bob
by Bob
Thu Jun 14, 2018 3:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rate hikes vs - Muni, Corp, Total Bond funds
Replies: 18
Views: 2952

Re: Rate hikes vs - Muni, Corp, Total Bond funds

Sylarr,
Thanks for the"code". I need to get better at adding tables and graphics. Good to keep learning. ;)
Bob
by Bob
Thu Jun 14, 2018 7:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rate hikes vs - Muni, Corp, Total Bond funds
Replies: 18
Views: 2952

Re: Rate hikes vs - Muni, Corp, Total Bond funds

Great question that I have wondered about, too. So I collected recent data to look at it. It covers the last 18 months and not 3 years since I could not find Muni Fund data before 2016 easily. For the table below, the Federal Funds data is from FRED and the Intermediate Muni data (for VWIUX Admiral ...
by Bob
Fri May 25, 2018 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is inflation the greatest risk to retirement portfolios?
Replies: 100
Views: 9912

Re: Is inflation the greatest risk to retirement portfolios?

... If inflation is the greatest risk we face as retirees, would that not imply that the choice of investment assets should prioritize inflation risk? That would mean that we should be heavily tilted toward such things as TIPs, I-Bonds, and the like, yes? My understanding is that stocks may protect...
by Bob
Sat May 12, 2018 10:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Savings Bond Wizard to be eliminated 5/18
Replies: 71
Views: 18364

Re: Savings Bond Wizard to be eliminated 5/18

Transfer went OK for me with one major EXCEPTION. The bonds in my exported file that had been 'cashed in' lost that notation. Those "cashed in" bonds were properly labelled "CI" in the Savings Bond Wizard and they no longer were added to the totals. In the new Calculator the "CI" label is not eviden...
by Bob
Sat Apr 14, 2018 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trinity Study updated to 2018
Replies: 156
Views: 24497

Re: Trinity Study updated to 2018

This is from January, but I searched and did not find a post on it: https://www.forbes.com/sites/wadepfau/2018/01/16/the-trinity-study-and-portfolio-success-rates-updated-to-2018/#6665ac7e6860 Wade Pfau updated the Trinity Study to include data thru 2017. He also includes failure rates up to 40 yea...
by Bob
Thu Mar 22, 2018 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Medicare IRMAA
Replies: 21
Views: 2676

Re: Medicare IRMAA

.... This is very good news. I had not heard about plans to adjust the IRMAA limits. If the limits are raised it could be very helpful as my RMDs grow. As it is, I was looking at significantly increasing my QCDs. (May still do that, but it will feel less coerced.) I apologize for this Eeyore-like p...
by Bob
Thu Mar 22, 2018 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Medicare IRMAA
Replies: 21
Views: 2676

Re: Medicare IRMAA

Yes, good point. Thanks. I'll add that as something else to monitor. Another aspect I plan to monitor is future legislation. As happened just a couple years ago, there may be added lowering of when IRMAA brackets impact a person and/or how much the annual added costs are per bracket. If instead of i...
by Bob
Thu Mar 22, 2018 12:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Medicare IRMAA
Replies: 21
Views: 2676

Re: Medicare IRMAA

Thanks to everyone for the responses and ideas. I went back and re-read everything on the medicare.gov website about what is in Medicare MAGI and what are "life changing events" -- and found a like there that also shows what are NOT considered life changing events so one could appeal. Turns out the ...
by Bob
Wed Mar 14, 2018 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: No risk retirement withdraw strategy - WARM
Replies: 35
Views: 4923

Re: No risk retirement withdraw strategy - WARM

100% fixed income funds is not a great idea, IMHO. I do not have a ready reference, but analysis of the past (by Wfau, Kitches and others) has indicated that being 100% in fixed income funds results in a more volatile asset-base that has an investment allocation of 20-25% into equities. Beyond volat...
by Bob
Wed Mar 07, 2018 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Medicare IRMAA
Replies: 21
Views: 2676

Re: Medicare IRMAA

Thanks to everyone for the inputs. While there sounds like there is some hope of getting a successful appeal I am reticent to wait and find out that my case won't be approved. :confused So I guess I will look at the extra IRMAA costs versus the lost interest if I cash in the bonds early and see whi...
by Bob
Wed Mar 07, 2018 6:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Medicare IRMAA
Replies: 21
Views: 2676

Re: Medicare IRMAA

Thanks to everyone for the inputs. While there sounds like there is some hope of getting a successful appeal I am reticent to wait and find out that my case won't be approved. :confused So I guess I will look at the extra IRMAA costs versus the lost interest if I cash in the bonds early and see whic...
by Bob
Tue Mar 06, 2018 2:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Medicare IRMAA
Replies: 21
Views: 2676

Re: Medicare IRMAA

No. Medicare has specific requirements for "life changing events" which may reduce your Medicare premiums. You can find the information here: https://www.hhs.gov/about/agencies/omha/the-appeals-process/part-b-premium-appeals/index.html Thank you for the link and its clarification. I expected I was ...
by Bob
Tue Mar 06, 2018 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Medicare IRMAA
Replies: 21
Views: 2676

Medicare IRMAA

I am trying to understand how Medicare IRMAA (Income Related Income Adjustment Amounts) would work in the following case: 1) We have a lot of U.S. EE Savings Bonds where we have deferred paying tax on their annual interest until they will mature in 2022. So in 2022 we will have a 'huge' amount of in...
by Bob
Mon Feb 26, 2018 4:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Redfin
Replies: 29
Views: 5896

Re: Redfin

Watched the video and can say for a fact the Mr. Buffet sounds totally unfamiliar with Redfin. I have used them twice in two parts of U.S. and they provide far better value and often better personal, in-person service than other real estate firms i have used (and I have used several over the years)....
by Bob
Sun Feb 25, 2018 6:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Blasphemy... DO PEEK!
Replies: 100
Views: 11341

Re: Blasphemy... DO PEEK!

Not blasphemy at all, IMHO. For many people, including me, this should be the preferred approach. This group of people are also probably more involved in managing their budgets and their overall financial destiny. Also, with online fraud it may be a good way to identify account hacking and fraud ear...
by Bob
Sat Feb 17, 2018 9:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Fund Distributions as Interest Rates Rise
Replies: 3
Views: 871

Bond Fund Distributions as Interest Rates Rise

How might one estimate the amount and timing of a change in a Bond Fund's annual distributions as Interest Rates rise? For instance, for Vanguard's Intermediate-Term Tax-Exempt Fund Admiral Shares (VWIUX) over the past 5 years the annual distributions have had the following annual changes from the p...
by Bob
Mon Feb 12, 2018 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wellesley Income Annual Distributions Data
Replies: 7
Views: 1938

Re: Wellesley Income Annual Distributions Data

The "advisors" side of the Vanguard website is better for things like this--it has 10 years of distribution history for every Vanguard fund. The "personal" side just has ~18months or so. See https://advisors.vanguard.com/VGApp/iip/site/advisor/investments/price?fundId=0027 If you want to go back fa...
by Bob
Mon Feb 12, 2018 8:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wellesley Income Annual Distributions Data
Replies: 7
Views: 1938

Re: Wellesley Income Annual Distributions Data

Vanguard's website has a page for each fund that lists separate income and capital return, going back 15 years. For Wellesley: https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundIntExt=INT&FundId=0027&funds_disable_redirect=true#tab=1a Portfolio Visualizer has an option that lists income from a po...
by Bob
Sun Feb 11, 2018 4:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wellesley Income Annual Distributions Data
Replies: 7
Views: 1938

Wellesley Income Annual Distributions Data

I am looking for data on the yearly distribution history of the Vanguard Wellesley Income fund (VWINX) since 1970. The phenomenally great SIMBA backtest workbook provides total return percentages by year but I am looking for detail underneath those numbers. I want to obtain the actual, dollar distri...