Search found 508 matches

by Jebediah
Sat Oct 06, 2018 7:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Shtekman and Xu beat Asness: Alt. Strategies (VASFX) vs. AQR (QSPIX)!
Replies: 18
Views: 1122

Re: Vanguard's Shtekman and Xu beat Asness: Alt. Strategies (VASFX) vs. AQR (QSPIX)!

Since QSPIX's inception (10/30/2013) ...

QSPIX: +31.3%
VMNFX: +11.7%

I think Asness is winning.
by Jebediah
Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?
Replies: 80
Views: 5351

Re: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?

Random Walker wrote:
Sun Sep 09, 2018 9:14 am
https://images.aqr.com/-/media/AQR/Docu ... C168F8AC76

Everyone knows Asness is brilliant.
I've never seen evidence that Asness is brilliant.
by Jebediah
Sat Sep 08, 2018 11:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1435
Views: 207808

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

Nisiprius, I’m not sure there is a great answer to your benchmarking question. When I started using DFA funds for example, I asked the advisor about appropriate benchmarks. He said “the funds sort of serve as their own passive benchmarks”. Although that answer can sound a little slimy and not what ...
by Jebediah
Sat Sep 08, 2018 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Bonds to boost returns?
Replies: 61
Views: 6533

Re: 100% Bonds to boost returns?

Long term returns are based on the fundamentals of the investment and expected return can be estimated reasonably. By mathematical law, what you pay for an investment affects your return expectation. Even the most hard-core CAPE people try to soften their statements with "only 40% predictive". But ...
by Jebediah
Thu Sep 06, 2018 10:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1435
Views: 207808

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

Nisiprius, I’m not sure there is a great answer to your benchmarking question. When I started using DFA funds for example, I asked the advisor about appropriate benchmarks. He said “the funds sort of serve as their own passive benchmarks”. Although that answer can sound a little slimy and not what ...
by Jebediah
Thu Sep 06, 2018 9:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Bonds to boost returns?
Replies: 61
Views: 6533

Re: 100% Bonds to boost returns?

^ Thanks for an excellent contribution to the thread. This is an especially good point: Shifting to the riskless asset v risky assets to get more return is a pretty positive statement that risky assets in general are mispriced. The idea of shifting to corporates (or perhaps foreign stocks for that m...
by Jebediah
Wed Sep 05, 2018 9:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Bonds to boost returns?
Replies: 61
Views: 6533

Re: 100% Bonds to boost returns?

No. They. Are. Not. You cannot assign any significant mathematical likelihood to a Random Walk. That is the root of your problem and the reason why you are seeking all the wrong solutions. Stay the course. This is false. Only short term movements are quasi-random/chaotic. Long term returns are base...
by Jebediah
Wed Sep 05, 2018 7:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Bonds to boost returns?
Replies: 61
Views: 6533

Re: 100% Bonds to boost returns?

The economic fundamentals of US equities are such that they are mathematically likely to return less than bonds over the next 10 years. No. They. Are. Not. You cannot assign any significant mathematical likelihood to a Random Walk. That is the root of your problem and the reason why you are seeking...
by Jebediah
Wed Sep 05, 2018 5:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Bonds to boost returns?
Replies: 61
Views: 6533

Re: 100% Bonds to boost returns?

Essentially if we were to believe these returns to come true that would mean a significant drop comprising of 20% or more, or a series of years with negative returns. Since we know stock market return distributions are highly non-linear chances are for a significant sell off followed by large ralli...
by Jebediah
Wed Sep 05, 2018 4:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Bonds to boost returns?
Replies: 61
Views: 6533

Re: 100% Bonds to boost returns?

So I'll save you from the lecturers that will say "Nobody knows nuttin' " or "10 year forecasts are useless" and just say that in the link you provided most of the estimates for foreign stock returns were higher than US bond returns. So why not put some money in foreign stocks? It appears from your...
by Jebediah
Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1435
Views: 207808

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

It makes you wonder about the wisdom of so called factor investing where you take out the beta, taking out the beta turned gains into losses. seriously? Yes. In a long position, US Value is up this year. In QSPIX, according to Larry, Value was down 20%. Value is up in nominal terms in 2018 but not ...
by Jebediah
Wed Sep 05, 2018 12:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Bonds to boost returns?
Replies: 61
Views: 6533

Re: 100% Bonds to boost returns?

Given that stocks are riskier, it seems only logical to be 100% bonds at this time . Um, not to be a smart aleck, but isn't this by definition market timing? Not really. It's financial planning to calculate expected returns and then decide how best to attempt to get the return you need. That's why ...
by Jebediah
Wed Sep 05, 2018 12:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Bonds to boost returns?
Replies: 61
Views: 6533

Re: 100% Bonds to boost returns?

bberris wrote:
Tue Sep 04, 2018 10:09 am
It looks like you are comparing nominal (after inflation) stock returns with absolute (before inflation) returns from bonds. Assuming an efficient market, bonds would not offer expected returns higher than stocks.
Nominal for both.
by Jebediah
Tue Sep 04, 2018 11:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Bonds to boost returns?
Replies: 61
Views: 6533

Re: 100% Bonds to boost returns?

Nobody knows nothing. Don't time the markets. Stay the course. I'm confident that businessmen will find a way to outperform bonds in the long run. And in the short run I have no clue. I think an asset allocation between 75/25 and 25/75 is good for most, and for me, I'm comfortable hovering in the m...
by Jebediah
Tue Sep 04, 2018 11:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1435
Views: 207808

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

nedsaid wrote:
Tue Sep 04, 2018 10:12 am
It makes you wonder about the wisdom of so called factor investing where you take out the beta, taking out the beta turned gains into losses.
seriously?
by Jebediah
Mon Sep 03, 2018 10:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Bonds to boost returns?
Replies: 61
Views: 6533

Re: 100% Bonds to boost returns?

Nobody knows nothing. Don't time the markets. Stay the course. I'm confident that businessmen will find a way to outperform bonds in the long run. And in the short run I have no clue. I think an asset allocation between 75/25 and 25/75 is good for most, and for me, I'm comfortable hovering in the m...
by Jebediah
Mon Sep 03, 2018 10:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Bonds to boost returns?
Replies: 61
Views: 6533

Re: 100% Bonds to boost returns?

The returns you get from bonds will be far more certain than with stocks. The 2019 forward estimates for the S&P 500 reported earnings is $163.49 At the current price of $2,901.52 the earnings yield would be about 5.6%, regardless if we hit that estimate next year or not, stocks are generally expec...
by Jebediah
Mon Sep 03, 2018 9:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Bonds to boost returns?
Replies: 61
Views: 6533

Re: 100% Bonds to boost returns?

There are forecasts now that stocks will soar ("melt up"). There are forecasts that stocks will sink like a stone. Same with bonds, some say way up and some say way down. There are also people predicting that bonds and stocks will both fall, and you need to be in cash. Or not cash but TIPS. Or not ...
by Jebediah
Mon Sep 03, 2018 9:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Bonds to boost returns?
Replies: 61
Views: 6533

Re: 100% Bonds to boost returns?

The returns you get from bonds will be far more certain than with stocks. The 2019 forward estimates for the S&P 500 reported earnings is $163.49 At the current price of $2,901.52 the earnings yield would be about 5.6%, regardless if we hit that estimate next year or not, stocks are generally expec...
by Jebediah
Mon Sep 03, 2018 8:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Bonds to boost returns?
Replies: 61
Views: 6533

100% Bonds to boost returns?

As you know, 10 year equity return forecasts are quite low. Bogle says 4% nominal. Research Affiliates says .3 real (call it 2.4 nominal via TIPS spread). Morningstar says 1.8% nominal. https://www.morningstar.com/articles/842900/experts-forecast-longterm-stock-and-bond-returns-2.html Average = 2.7%...
by Jebediah
Sat Sep 01, 2018 9:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is it time to go shorter in bonds ?
Replies: 109
Views: 8348

Re: Is it time to go shorter in bonds ?

Just forget about "is it time." Stay the course. Interest rates can only go up, why go intermediate in bonds? Post by mathwhiz » Sun Jul 19, 2009 12:36 am I see the total bond fund and intermediate treasuries recommended a lot on here. I know people don't like to market time but interest rates are ...
by Jebediah
Sat Sep 01, 2018 9:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1435
Views: 207808

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

Nisiprius: I'm sorry but, as Angst has tried to explain, your morningstar charts are ridiculous here. This fund has absolutely *nothing* to do with long equity funds, value style or otherwise. Absolutely nothing to do with them. Charting QSPIX against long equity funds gives you zero information. No...
by Jebediah
Sat Sep 01, 2018 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks in a 401k is a bad idea, right?
Replies: 43
Views: 5628

Re: Stocks in a 401k is a bad idea, right?

Livesoft got it: I was missing the upfront tax hit of investing in taxable. Thanks for the help!
by Jebediah
Sat Sep 01, 2018 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks in a 401k is a bad idea, right?
Replies: 43
Views: 5628

Re: Stocks in a 401k is a bad idea, right?

I'm conjecturing that "tax-protected growth" works against you / is actually more costly than tax-unprotected growth when it's equities in a 401k vs taxable. Because you pay your tax on all that growth at income rates when you could've paid it at cap gains/QDI rates in a taxable acct.
by Jebediah
Sat Sep 01, 2018 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks in a 401k is a bad idea, right?
Replies: 43
Views: 5628

Stocks in a 401k is a bad idea, right?

Because, all else equal, in the 401k I'm paying income tax rates on my gains (when I withdraw) vs capital gains and QDI tax rates if held in a taxable account. Seems like 401k holdings should be 100% bonds/alternatives as a rule due to this equities disadvantage. What am I missing?
by Jebediah
Tue Aug 28, 2018 10:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Wanting to retire early. Is my math right?
Replies: 29
Views: 3766

Re: Wanting to retire early. Is my math right?

Forget the 6.5% thing, forget 7 years. That's the wrong way to do it. At your age, use the 3% withdrawal rule. So if it's really true that you can live on 20K/yr factoring in all possible surprises, then your number is $666K (nice). Currently you're about 250K short. How long until you accumulate yo...
by Jebediah
Tue Jun 12, 2018 11:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting video from Ramsey today [How Ramsey Outperforms The Stock Market]
Replies: 134
Views: 12627

Re: Interesting video from Ramsey today [How Ramsey Outperforms The Stock Market]

AIVSX returns after-tax are 8.91% since inception (per morningstar), and it trails the market by over 2% over the last 15 years.

VFINX (Vanguard 500) has a 9.58% after-tax return since inception.

Image
by Jebediah
Sun May 20, 2018 9:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I retire? Input and advice is welcome!
Replies: 29
Views: 4048

Re: Can I retire? Input and advice is welcome!

You're set and should retire.
by Jebediah
Tue May 01, 2018 6:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I-bond fixed rate = 0.3%
Replies: 62
Views: 8633

Re: I-bond fixed rate = 0.3%

Carl53 wrote:
Tue May 01, 2018 5:33 pm
According to Bloomberg, 5 year TIPS have a yield of 0.72%. Why would I sign up for Ibonds at 0.3%.
iBonds are tax-deferred.

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/I_Bonds_vs_TIPS
by Jebediah
Fri Apr 06, 2018 12:52 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How Do You Value Your Home for Net Worth Purposes?
Replies: 150
Views: 11165

Re: How Do You Value Your Home for Net Worth Purposes?

FI is absolutely based on one's liquid net worth. And houses/real estate are included in that because they are (typically) liquid, ie they can always be converted to spendable cash (just like a stock). This is patently false. I think joke about a farmer cooking his favorite pig one limb per month c...
by Jebediah
Wed Apr 04, 2018 8:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How Do You Value Your Home for Net Worth Purposes?
Replies: 150
Views: 11165

Re: How Do You Value Your Home for Net Worth Purposes?

Unless I am misunderstanding an awful lot, I find your examples and your way of thinking about this both bizarre and almost horrifying. It is not your net worth that defines financial independence, but your financial assets. Your example would suggest that someone with a paid-off million-dollar hom...
by Jebediah
Fri Mar 30, 2018 1:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How Do You Value Your Home for Net Worth Purposes?
Replies: 150
Views: 11165

Re: How Do You Value Your Home for Net Worth Purposes?

You can account for your home as a consumable (not part of net worth) or an investment asset (part of net worth). What's important is that you stick with one of the two designations when determining your A) net worth and B) spending, in order to determine C) your FI number (based on the SWR of your ...
by Jebediah
Sat Mar 10, 2018 4:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: REITS and Swedroe
Replies: 71
Views: 8081

Re: REITS and Swedroe

Unlike renting, you have the opportunity to build equity but home ownership does not generate cash flow. Home ownership does indeed generate cash flow in the form of imputed rent. Cash is what pays bills. Imputed anything does not. Of course it does. Money is fungible. Savings is imputed earnings. ...
by Jebediah
Thu Mar 08, 2018 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: REITS and Swedroe
Replies: 71
Views: 8081

Re: REITS and Swedroe

nedsaid wrote:
Thu Mar 08, 2018 9:55 am
Unlike renting, you have the opportunity to build equity but home ownership does not generate cash flow.
Home ownership does indeed generate cash flow in the form of imputed rent.
by Jebediah
Tue Jan 30, 2018 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wow: Shiller PE is 34.52
Replies: 52
Views: 7066

Re: Wow: Shiller PE is 34.52

Trailing earnings yield is 3.79%.

2 year treasury yield is 2.11%

Your choice if that's worth the risk.
by Jebediah
Sun Jan 28, 2018 8:48 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Career "advice" for someone without college
Replies: 39
Views: 2485

Re: Career "advice" for someone without college

If he has any artistic inclination-- graphic design, motion design, CGI, illustration etc are an option. It would require some months (say 6) of sitting down, learning the software (not that hard), making some stuff, and then creating a portfolio. Employers only look at the portfolio, could care les...
by Jebediah
Sat Jan 27, 2018 10:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stock inflows over the past 12 months: $25 billion. Taxable bond inflows: $392 billion
Replies: 18
Views: 3196

Re: U.S. stock inflows over the past 12 months: $25 billion. Taxable bond inflows: $392 billion

Investors are cutting their exposure to equities, and they have been for years.

How is this possible? Every share sold is a share bought. Is it a buyback phenomenon? Is it that there are less equity investors but larger holdings per individual? How does this concept of "flows" really work?
by Jebediah
Mon Dec 18, 2017 7:08 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can I put K-1 income into a solo 401k?
Replies: 2
Views: 452

Can I put K-1 income into a solo 401k?

I have a solo 401k that I have used in conjunction with solo contractor work. In 2017, I did no solo contractor work. I contributed the 18K maximum to my employer's 401k, zero to the solo 401k. My employer is an LLC, of which I am a member/shareholder. The company is profitable, and allocates my sha...
by Jebediah
Sun Dec 03, 2017 9:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard to launch US 'smart beta' ETFs - Will this board burn down?
Replies: 156
Views: 19889

Re: Vanguard to launch US 'smart beta' ETFs - Will this board burn down?

That chart is not right. It does not include dividends. Look closer, the chart is right even accounting for the Q3 dividend distributions. Of course it's right. It is a price (NAV) chart. It is not supposed to include dividends. :D The problem with the chart is that it is only for three months. Tha...
by Jebediah
Tue Nov 28, 2017 10:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard to launch US 'smart beta' ETFs - Will this board burn down?
Replies: 156
Views: 19889

Re: Vanguard to launch US 'smart beta' ETFs - Will this board burn down?

It's the end of the mutifactor era. Thank you Larry for all the books, Robert T for all the posts. It was good times. :sharebeer

I'll let my DFA and AQR funds stick around as keepsakes, but it's all about VTI and VXUS from here on out.
by Jebediah
Sun Oct 08, 2017 3:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Sell or keep shares of a private company?
Replies: 46
Views: 3635

Re: Sell or keep shares of a private company?

Reframing might add perspective. If you had the $650K in hand, and were given the one-time opportunity to invest it in the company, would you do so? If yes, how do you rationalize holding 50% of your AA in this private stock? I'm not saying you cannot rationalize it, but what does that rationale loo...
by Jebediah
Sun Sep 17, 2017 1:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What is the portfolio role of a leveraged bond fund like PONDX?
Replies: 60
Views: 5628

Re: What is the portfolio role of a leveraged bond fund like PONDX?

Can anyone speak to outflow/liquidity risk of this kind of fund? We can assume the day will come when all these inflows become outflows. AFAIK PDI is the closed-end cousin (same strategy, more leverage). Is a smaller amount of a CEF a better choice for this kind of thing (assuming one doesn't drasti...
by Jebediah
Tue Jun 27, 2017 6:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: A large, intentional overcontribution to a Roth IRA
Replies: 3
Views: 619

A large, intentional overcontribution to a Roth IRA

I want to buy 40K of QMNIX (AQR market neutral) in a Roth IRA before the fund closes on friday. It's available at Fidelity in an IRA with a $2500 min. I have put in motion a transfer request to move 40K in cash from my other Roth to a newly opened Roth account at Fidelity. Problem is that the transf...
by Jebediah
Fri Sep 16, 2016 7:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Broker-Dealer Fee Audit. Is it a thing?
Replies: 8
Views: 1081

Re: Broker-Dealer Fee Audit. Is it a thing?

Great comments, thank you. I hadn't thought of the bond spreads, and I think individual bonds ("special offers just for you") are part of this broker's schtick. I like tfb's suggestion, a CPA audit from the statements.
by Jebediah
Thu Sep 15, 2016 10:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Broker-Dealer Fee Audit. Is it a thing?
Replies: 8
Views: 1081

Broker-Dealer Fee Audit. Is it a thing?

I am trying to convince a family member (FM) to leave her Morgan Stanley "advisor". FM has stuck around for the usual reasons: the advisor is a nice person, always available, etc. Of course, FM has no idea what they've been paying in fees. I've convinced them to ask for an accounting of the fees the...
by Jebediah
Tue Aug 02, 2016 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the purpose of a Long/Short Equity Fund fund like AQR QLERX?
Replies: 49
Views: 4881

Re: What is the purpose of a Long/Short Equity Fund fund like AQR QLERX?

I haven't read the whole thread, but QLERX has a .7 correlation to VT (world stock), so it is not the alternative fund you want.
by Jebediah
Thu May 05, 2016 12:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: *IF* VW buys back my TDI
Replies: 37
Views: 4353

Re: *IF* VW buys back my TDI

I wonder if I can set my TDI on fire and still sell it back to them at the summer '15 KBB value.
by Jebediah
Fri Apr 22, 2016 5:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Volkswagen DieselGate Compensation - Any Tax Implications?
Replies: 20
Views: 8546

Re: Volkswagen DieselGate Compensation - Any Tax Implications?

My TDI drives like a dream (for now) but the damn sunroof wont stop rattling so they can have it back.
by Jebediah
Tue Feb 23, 2016 4:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: where to get 3% real with the least amount of risk?
Replies: 56
Views: 8224

Re: where to get 3% real with the least amount of risk?

Do half the bogleheads not know the difference between real and nominal? Someone should do a poll...
by Jebediah
Tue Feb 23, 2016 1:10 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: where to get 3% real with the least amount of risk?
Replies: 56
Views: 8224

Re: where to get 3% real with the least amount of risk?

P2P lending is the answer. You'll get very few defaults at a 5% return target.