Search found 571 matches

by Jebediah
Tue Nov 12, 2019 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you were forced to pick an alternative asset...
Replies: 101
Views: 6104

Re: If you were forced to pick an alternative asset...

White Coat Investor wrote:
Tue Nov 12, 2019 12:31 am

Buy websites. Often sold at a price where you can earn back your investment in just 9 months. A real wild west kind of frontier investment.
This is interesting. Can you elaborate a little? Examples?
by Jebediah
Sun Nov 10, 2019 8:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Seller's agent not letting us use a buyer's agent
Replies: 122
Views: 10508

Re: Seller's agent not letting us use a buyer's agent

The selling agent showed you the house twice, they deserve to get paid for that. I disagree. Whether or not OP had an agent, and whether or not they showed up, doesn't change the "work" of showing the house. OP should have stated that a buyer's agent existed at the visit but it's fine for OP to jus...
by Jebediah
Sun Nov 10, 2019 7:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Seller's agent not letting us use a buyer's agent
Replies: 122
Views: 10508

Re: Seller's agent not letting us use a buyer's agent

mmmodem wrote:
Sat Nov 09, 2019 5:52 am
The seller's agent showed you the house and ought to be paid for the work.
Work? What work? Such a ridiculous system, should've been 'disrupted' long ago.
by Jebediah
Thu Oct 31, 2019 9:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Mortgage or Bonds at 50 !
Replies: 36
Views: 2681

Re: Mortgage or Bonds at 50 !

I think you don't have enough money or time to mess around with bonds, "CEF", or REITS. I'd go 100% stock, and I say that as a conservative, 50/50 investor.
by Jebediah
Tue Oct 29, 2019 8:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to diversify a Three Fund Portfolio in 8 steps
Replies: 66
Views: 4864

Re: How to diversify a Three Fund Portfolio in 8 steps

Why global low vol instead of international low vol?

Where's VPU? Where's GLD?
by Jebediah
Sun Oct 27, 2019 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BOSVX vs IJS for SCV Loading?
Replies: 55
Views: 1937

Re: BOSVX vs IJS for SCV Loading?

I use a factor portfolio because of the additional risk and return associated with the factors. I hear a lot of theory about factor premiums having X correlation to each other, which creates a more diversified portfolio. You need to accept a certain level of market inefficiency if you believe facto...
by Jebediah
Sun Oct 27, 2019 12:56 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I’m done with index funds
Replies: 201
Views: 20534

Re: I’m done with index funds

how much would you actually be able to TLH under this new strategy compared to index funds? On average, $50k annually for every million invested. So you're paying 0.7% annually (and not getting the compound growth on that) to save closer to 1.5% (assumes 30% tax on long-term gain) when you start wi...
by Jebediah
Fri Oct 25, 2019 6:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BOSVX vs IJS for SCV Loading?
Replies: 55
Views: 1937

Re: BOSVX vs IJS for SCV Loading?

With regard to BOSVX versus IJS, I think a minor but significant point for tillers is the following. When one uses a fund with deeper exposures to size and value, that means he needs to take on less market beta risk (the risk he is trying to diversify away from in the first place) to get his desire...
by Jebediah
Thu Oct 24, 2019 10:43 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 11 Reasons to Carry a Big, Long Mortgage by Ric Edelman.
Replies: 93
Views: 10844

Re: 11 Reasons to Carry a Big, Long Mortgage by Ric Edelman.

Because there’s no good reason to think that advisors’ fees more than pay for themselves over the long run, but people have seen and do expect that market-cap portfolios beat fixed mortgage rates over decades. Totally different. So you're effectively saying the idea is that a mortgage is a good thi...
by Jebediah
Wed Oct 23, 2019 11:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 11 Reasons to Carry a Big, Long Mortgage by Ric Edelman.
Replies: 93
Views: 10844

Re: 11 Reasons to Carry a Big, Long Mortgage by Ric Edelman.

The #1 good reason not to carry a mortgage - if the thought of having a mortgage keeps you awake at night. In which case maybe you shouldn't have gotten a mortgage in the first place. I think the #1 good reason not to carry a mortgage is that it's many thousands of dollars a year completely wasted ...
by Jebediah
Wed Oct 23, 2019 10:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 11 Reasons to Carry a Big, Long Mortgage by Ric Edelman.
Replies: 93
Views: 10844

Re: 11 Reasons to Carry a Big, Long Mortgage by Ric Edelman.

The #1 good reason not to carry a mortgage - if the thought of having a mortgage keeps you awake at night. In which case maybe you shouldn't have gotten a mortgage in the first place. I think the #1 good reason not to carry a mortgage is that it's many thousands of dollars a year completely wasted ...
by Jebediah
Wed Oct 23, 2019 8:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 11 Reasons to Carry a Big, Long Mortgage by Ric Edelman.
Replies: 93
Views: 10844

Re: 11 Reasons to Carry a Big, Long Mortgage by Ric Edelman.

The #1 good reason not to carry a mortgage - if the thought of having a mortgage keeps you awake at night. In which case maybe you shouldn't have gotten a mortgage in the first place. I think the #1 good reason not to carry a mortgage is that it's many thousands of dollars a year completely wasted ...
by Jebediah
Tue Oct 22, 2019 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing for the "great sag" - Dalio
Replies: 65
Views: 10354

Re: Investing for the "great sag" - Dalio

His prediction of rising rates in 2013 was 100% correct So what? That's a 50/50 coin flip. What did he say the IMPACT of rising rates would be? Did he say the impact would be nearly nothing? (correct) Or did he claim something else? (wrong) I'm guessing "something else" because I doubt the financia...
by Jebediah
Tue Oct 22, 2019 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing for the "great sag" - Dalio
Replies: 65
Views: 10354

Re: Investing for the "great sag" - Dalio

Nisi, you're being pedantic. In 2012 he said bonds were a short in 2013, and he was right.

I (not dalio) called it "bondmageddon" because I love that the media calls it that. i.e. it's a joke. But Dalio made the correct call, that's no joke.
by Jebediah
Tue Oct 22, 2019 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing for the "great sag" - Dalio
Replies: 65
Views: 10354

Re: Investing for the "great sag" - Dalio

His prediction of rising rates in 2013 was 100% correct So what? That's a 50/50 coin flip. What did he say the IMPACT of rising rates would be? Did he say the impact would be nearly nothing? (correct) Or did he claim something else? (wrong) I'm guessing "something else" because I doubt the financia...
by Jebediah
Tue Oct 22, 2019 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing for the "great sag" - Dalio
Replies: 65
Views: 10354

Re: Investing for the "great sag" - Dalio

His prediction of rising rates in 2013 was 100% correct
by Jebediah
Tue Oct 22, 2019 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing for the "great sag" - Dalio
Replies: 65
Views: 10354

Re: Investing for the "great sag" - Dalio

Bondmageddon was the media's term, not Dalio's. I use it every chance I get : )

https://www.cnbc.com/id/100307150
by Jebediah
Mon Oct 21, 2019 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing for the "great sag" - Dalio
Replies: 65
Views: 10354

Re: Investing for the "great sag" - Dalio

What's his track record on making macro-economic forecasts? His track record is 100% accuracy Care to give us a reference to a reliable source, that confirms that statement? Dailo called the EM sag of 1998, the dot com crash, the value rotation of 2001-2003, the GFC, bondmageddon 2013, the recent r...
by Jebediah
Mon Oct 21, 2019 10:58 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Factor Portfolio Check
Replies: 30
Views: 2145

Re: Factor Portfolio Check

Looks good.

I concur with the idea of using RAFI funds for value and also targeting MOM = 0 instead of trying to have both +MOM and +HML.

Another thing to check out is your term exposure when you have +HML. Might be negative and you might want to offset that.
by Jebediah
Sun Oct 20, 2019 7:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Factor Portfolio Check
Replies: 30
Views: 2145

Re: Factor Portfolio Check

On the US side:

SPVU: 40%
VB: 60%

is one possibility.
by Jebediah
Sun Oct 20, 2019 7:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Advice: Windfall Makes Working Worse Than Not Working
Replies: 70
Views: 9854

Re: Advice: Windfall Makes Working Worse Than Not Working

Assuming your basis is zero, looks like you save about $330k if you flee CA for a no-tax state. Be careful/smart about it; CA is known to play hardball with flee-ers. Best to get out of the state as far in advance of the sale as possible. Leave no ties behind. Change addresses diligently. Do not mov...
by Jebediah
Sat Oct 19, 2019 11:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Whatever happened to the commodities miracle?
Replies: 21
Views: 2750

Re: Whatever happened to the commodities miracle?

As for correlations VTI vs BND -0.02, effectively zero BND vs PCRIX 0.14, low but not zero VTI vs PCRIX 0.54, not much of a diversifier It did not make sense and it did not work. CCF managers and investment advisors made a lot of money on the commodities play. Has anyone seen any estimates of how m...
by Jebediah
Sat Oct 19, 2019 11:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing for the "great sag" - Dalio
Replies: 65
Views: 10354

Re: Investing for the "great sag" - Dalio

Seasonal wrote:
Fri Oct 18, 2019 2:46 pm
What's his track record on making macro-economic forecasts?
His track record is 100% accuracy
by Jebediah
Sat Oct 19, 2019 5:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Low Volatility the best factor?
Replies: 14
Views: 1631

Re: Is Low Volatility the best factor?

According to PV, in the period 1964 - Present, BAB (low vol) returned 9.84% vs Rm-Rf (beta) which returned 5.01%.

So yes, by a long shot, low vol was the best factor.
by Jebediah
Thu Oct 17, 2019 9:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: OSAM 3Q 2019 letter - 'valuation spread is widest in two decades'
Replies: 8
Views: 1062

Re: OSAM 3Q 2019 letter - 'valuation spread is widest in two decades'

two questions: - which value indicies/funds screen out companies with negative earnings? In theory any of the S&P 400/500/600 indicies, right? But I don't think so. Clearly negative earnings are causing IJS (S&P 600 value) to have a PE of 106. - Anyone know of a good source for the assertion that v...
by Jebediah
Thu Oct 17, 2019 5:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: OSAM 3Q 2019 letter - 'valuation spread is widest in two decades'
Replies: 8
Views: 1062

Re: OSAM 3Q 2019 letter - 'valuation spread is widest in two decades'

two questions: - which value indicies/funds screen out companies with negative earnings? In theory any of the S&P 400/500/600 indicies, right? But I don't think so. Clearly negative earnings are causing IJS (S&P 600 value) to have a PE of 106. - Anyone know of a good source for the assertion that v...
by Jebediah
Thu Oct 17, 2019 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ex DFA CIO launches competitor which will also have ETFs
Replies: 157
Views: 16510

Re: Ex DFA CIO launches competitor which will also have ETFs

M* has filled in some portfolio numbers at least for ADVD international small value (the only Avantis fund I'm interested in right now). For what it's worth here are various size and valuation metrics compared to those for DFA World ex US Targeted Value and WisdomTree International Small Cap. Name ...
by Jebediah
Thu Oct 17, 2019 3:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: OSAM 3Q 2019 letter - 'valuation spread is widest in two decades'
Replies: 8
Views: 1062

Re: OSAM 3Q 2019 letter - 'valuation spread is widest in two decades'

two questions: - which value indicies/funds screen out companies with negative earnings? In theory any of the S&P 400/500/600 indicies, right? But I don't think so. Clearly negative earnings are causing IJS (S&P 600 value) to have a PE of 106. - Anyone know of a good source for the assertion that va...
by Jebediah
Wed Oct 09, 2019 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle’s formula says 1% real stock returns likely over next decade
Replies: 187
Views: 19877

Re: John Bogle’s formula says 1% real stock returns likely over next decade

Since I'm not sure what the earnings growth for growth companies is (to determine their expected real return), I just look at value companies (whose earnings just meet inflation and their current E/P is a reasonable estimate) and assume growth companies will return something in the vicinity I like ...
by Jebediah
Wed Oct 09, 2019 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle’s formula says 1% real stock returns likely over next decade
Replies: 187
Views: 19877

Re: John Bogle’s formula says 1% real stock returns likely over next decade

Even using 1/CAPE as an estimate for forward returns, that implies real returns of 3.5%, far better than 1%. The current P/E ratio is 21.73, so using 1/P/E implies real returns of 4.6%. So if earnings per share didn't grow at all over the next decade, 3.5%-4.6% seems like a reasonable 'likely' rang...
by Jebediah
Sun Oct 06, 2019 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Small Value Overbought?
Replies: 10
Views: 1460

Is Small Value Overbought?

I did a quick AUM survey of popular small value vs small growth funds and found an asymmetry of ownership suggesting SV is over-owned. Value fund (AUM(B)) / Corresponding growth fund (AUM(B)).......difference(value minus growth (B)) VBR (13.0) / VBK (8.9).......... +4.1 IWN (9.0) / IWO (8.5)...........
by Jebediah
Sun Oct 06, 2019 7:52 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Small Value Tax Efficient Placement
Replies: 25
Views: 1698

Re: Small Value Tax Efficient Placement

I'm a three fund investor adding small value index fund. To make it simple, I have been adding 15% small value in each fund. SYLV in Roth, DFA US Targeted Value I in 401k and VIOV in taxable. My question is, should I put all of my small value in the tax deferred account and if so should I put it al...
by Jebediah
Tue Sep 24, 2019 9:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe Advocates: LENDX, SRRIX, AVRPX, QRPRX/QSPRX
Replies: 119
Views: 7906

Re: Swedroe Advocates: LENDX, SRRIX, AVRPX, QRPRX/QSPRX

This is getting ridiculous. This [campaign --admin LadyGeek] against Larry has just got to stop. Amen. Unfortunately this thread has essentially become a referendum on Larry the person. Let me tell you what I think of Larry. I think Larry is a saint. I’ve noticed, mostly in observing politicians, t...
by Jebediah
Sun Sep 22, 2019 4:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: My plan to sell taxable investments and increase 401(k)
Replies: 17
Views: 1001

Re: My plan to sell taxable investments and increase 401(k)

Maybe it's a bad idea but the issue of maxing the 401k + paid off house made me wonder about finding a small home equity loan.
by Jebediah
Thu Aug 29, 2019 9:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Job offer with equity component
Replies: 8
Views: 986

Re: Job offer with equity component

I like half/half too. You are not obligated to take equity for loyalty optics. You're there because you do a thing well that they need done well. Of course your investment plan doesn't include throwing 5 figure sums at private nano-cap stocks, BUT you also don't have any other opportunity to invest ...
by Jebediah
Tue Aug 20, 2019 10:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone retire in their 30s?
Replies: 108
Views: 14405

Re: Anyone retire in their 30s?

You could just hate management. Careers give us something to do; a purpose in life. Being jobless is not fun; you need a reason to wake up in the morning. I totally disagree. I am 56 and have been retired for 11 years and have liked every day of it. Being voluntarily jobless is much more fun than w...
by Jebediah
Mon Aug 19, 2019 9:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are we financially okay?
Replies: 64
Views: 8681

Re: Are we financially okay?

Cash flow neutral with $4.1 million in the bank? Why are you even asking? Of course you are "financially okay." Exactly. OP is well beyond OK. You've got 4.7 million net worth. You spend 160K a year. That's a 3.4% withdrawal rate . Not only are you ok, you're close to being able to retire (3% or le...
by Jebediah
Mon Aug 19, 2019 4:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are we financially okay?
Replies: 64
Views: 8681

Re: Are we financially okay?

Cash flow neutral with $4.1 million in the bank? Why are you even asking? Of course you are "financially okay." Exactly. OP is well beyond OK. You've got 4.7 million net worth. You spend 160K a year. That's a 3.4% withdrawal rate . Not only are you ok, you're close to being able to retire (3% or le...
by Jebediah
Mon Aug 19, 2019 2:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Paging Taylor Larimore one last time!
Replies: 21
Views: 6925

Re: Paging Taylor Larimore one last time!

I think because treasuries go up in bad times, ie "flight to safety". Total bond is predominantly treasuries.
by Jebediah
Mon Aug 19, 2019 2:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are we financially okay?
Replies: 64
Views: 8681

Re: Are we financially okay?

Cash flow neutral with $4.1 million in the bank? Why are you even asking? Of course you are "financially okay." Exactly. OP is well beyond OK. You've got 4.7 million net worth. You spend 160K a year. That's a 3.4% withdrawal rate. Not only are you ok, you're close to being able to retire (3% or les...
by Jebediah
Sun Aug 18, 2019 11:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone retire in their 30s?
Replies: 108
Views: 14405

Re: Anyone retire in their 30s?

I "retired" from working for someone else in order to work twice as hard for myself earning a negative income. I'm chiming in because I rarely hear much about working hard at what you love for zero money in these FIRE threads. People assume that work leads to income but in my world (art) that just i...
by Jebediah
Thu Jul 25, 2019 11:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Has anyone seen the documentary "Playing with FIRE?"
Replies: 216
Views: 20702

Re: Has anyone seen the documentary "Playing with FIRE?"

It is important for people to find their why, or else they will really struggle without work. Use your money as a tool, so you can push your why. I don’t have a “why”, and I’m OK with that, and I get sick of people saying you *must* have one or else it’s all a waste. I don’t have a why for working,...
by Jebediah
Wed Jul 24, 2019 10:32 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Has anyone seen the documentary "Playing with FIRE?"
Replies: 216
Views: 20702

Re: Has anyone seen the documentary "Playing with FIRE?"

Because he doesn't just state a fact, he seems to make a value judgement that he thinks people are evil human beings for choosing to drive cars and pollute the planet. It's the same way that vegans are annoying in that they try to make people feel guilty for eating animal protein. Yes, he thinks po...
by Jebediah
Wed Jul 24, 2019 3:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Has anyone seen the documentary "Playing with FIRE?"
Replies: 216
Views: 20702

Re: Has anyone seen the documentary "Playing with FIRE?"

When I confessed these and other transgressions to Adeney the next morning, he was not amused. When I blamed some of it on Manhattan, he accused me of “excusitis” and kept up a running critique over the next several days. “Paying for parking is a sign from God that you’re in an area not designed fo...
by Jebediah
Wed Jul 24, 2019 1:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Has anyone seen the documentary "Playing with FIRE?"
Replies: 216
Views: 20702

Re: Has anyone seen the documentary "Playing with FIRE?"

Not sure if this has been already linked upthread (if so, apologies), but this article by White Coat Investor (who also appears in this thread) is the sanest, most thoughtful critique of FIRE/MMM I've seen.

https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com/what- ... and-wrong/
by Jebediah
Wed Jul 24, 2019 12:48 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Has anyone seen the documentary "Playing with FIRE?"
Replies: 216
Views: 20702

Re: Has anyone seen the documentary "Playing with FIRE?"

I think this is interesting/relevant to this post. Basically THE WEALTHY ACCOUNTANT calls out those who FIRE for rubbing it in others' faces as "the only way to live": "The real problem of FIRE is arrogance; the all-consuming desire to let the world know you are right and everyone else is wrong. Th...
by Jebediah
Tue Jul 23, 2019 1:21 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Has anyone seen the documentary "Playing with FIRE?"
Replies: 216
Views: 20702

Re: Has anyone seen the documentary "Playing with FIRE?"

Us Hippies in the '60s were anti-establishment, back to nature and minimalist, too. Yet, here we are ... wealthy! :wink: Great point! Regarding the back-and-forth I had above... To be clear I don't at all fault MMM Followers and didn't mean to give that impression above. What I don't like is when f...
by Jebediah
Mon Jul 22, 2019 10:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Has anyone seen the documentary "Playing with FIRE?"
Replies: 216
Views: 20702

Re: Has anyone seen the documentary "Playing with FIRE?"

Yeah - but even in those early years he wasn't Retired (he was doing Construction work). I know - he has some blog that name-calls folks that like to point this out. But still....a blog post with name-calling doesn't make it not true. He also wasn't financially independent those first few years - h...
by Jebediah
Tue Jul 09, 2019 7:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Decided to retire soon - Asset Allocation question
Replies: 21
Views: 2201

Re: Decided to retire soon - Asset Allocation question

- 50/50 is a totally reasonable allocation. - Bonds or CDs, pick your poison. Expect the fixed income side to return zero real, don't get all hung up on optimizing it. - Expect the equities side to return 4 real over the very long term. - So you're expecting 2% returns overall at 50/50 AA. - Therefo...
by Jebediah
Mon Apr 22, 2019 8:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Private Equity (PE) and Allocation
Replies: 10
Views: 1086

Re: Private Equity (PE) and Allocation

Invested 1% of my net worth in a startup 5 years ago. Now that stake is worth 4x my net worth. However, it is not yet liquid, so I decline to count it in my AA. I don't see any benefit to including it, just throws everything out of whack in ways I can't reconcile. However I did allow this paper weal...