Search found 3496 matches

by longinvest
Tue Jun 25, 2019 7:38 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement Ready?
Replies: 35
Views: 4182

Re: Retirement Ready?

Just on the verge of retirement. Have been Boglehead for years, building my portfolio using low-cost index funds. Nevertheless, after a lifetime of working in an number of employment settings, I have quite a few accounts which I plan to further consolidate. In brief: Me 60 yo, wife 58 yo Total Curr...
by longinvest
Mon Jun 24, 2019 12:17 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Young Aussie - Anxious but Ambitious Planning
Replies: 24
Views: 1152

Re: Young Aussie - Anxious but Ambitious Planning

I don't like to discuss unicorns . But, if a young 25 years old with almost no work experience won a $10 million lottery and decided to retire, he would still probably wish to establish a small reliable income base, even if it doesn't covers essential expenses. He would approach an insurance compan...
by longinvest
Mon Jun 24, 2019 10:44 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Young Aussie - Anxious but Ambitious Planning
Replies: 24
Views: 1152

Re: Young Aussie - Anxious but Ambitious Planning

By the way I believe the VPW info assumes you have a base guaranteed income to cover your basic living costs (pension, annuity, house or investment property) and the money invested using a VPW rate is money you need to be able to cut down on when the market tanks. If you don't have your minimum nee...
by longinvest
Mon Jun 24, 2019 9:16 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 846
Views: 280930

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

Here's a reply I wrote on another thread to dispel a myth about how VPW must be used in retirement: By the way I believe the VPW info assumes you have a base guaranteed income to cover your basic living costs (pension, annuity, house or investment property) and the money invested using a VPW rate is...
by longinvest
Mon Jun 24, 2019 8:43 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Young Aussie - Anxious but Ambitious Planning
Replies: 24
Views: 1152

Re: Young Aussie - Anxious but Ambitious Planning

By the way I believe the VPW info assumes you have a base guaranteed income to cover your basic living costs (pension, annuity, house or investment property) and the money invested using a VPW rate is money you need to be able to cut down on when the market tanks. If you don't have your minimum nee...
by longinvest
Mon Jun 24, 2019 8:08 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Simple Retirement Calculators?
Replies: 10
Views: 698

Re: Simple Retirement Calculators?

Are there any simple retirement calculators that you prefer to use that will give me a good idea if we are on track? Also, perhaps takes account of taxes when withdrawing in retirement? Here's a link to one of the simplest, yet most robust retirement calculators. It's our wiki's VPW Accumulation An...
by longinvest
Sun Jun 23, 2019 1:17 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Young Aussie - Anxious but Ambitious Planning
Replies: 24
Views: 1152

Re: Young Aussie - Anxious but Ambitious Planning

Real estate prices are pretty crazy in Toronto (Ontario) and Vancouver (British Columbia). It seems that Canadians are quite similar to Aussies when it comes to the ownership bias. I don't think that you'll find consensus on the renting vs buying debate, not even in the Bogleheads forum. You can sea...
by longinvest
Sun Jun 23, 2019 12:33 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Young Aussie - Anxious but Ambitious Planning
Replies: 24
Views: 1152

Re: Young Aussie - Anxious but Ambitious Planning

It almost makes me to just rent forever and live off 3.50% withdrawals haha :? What's wrong with renting forever? It's what we do. We've tried ownership. My wife and I even had paid off our mortgage quickly, thanks to a large downpayment accumulated while renting. But, we didn't enjoy ownership so ...
by longinvest
Sun Jun 23, 2019 8:52 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Young Aussie - Anxious but Ambitious Planning
Replies: 24
Views: 1152

Re: Young Aussie - Anxious but Ambitious Planning

@LongInvest - Really appreciate the detailed response. I don't think I fully understand the approach and I have the same question as Andrew. I have downloaded the sheet and will play around with it some more. To get a long-term view of what the VPW worksheet is doing, I suggest that you read and lo...
by longinvest
Sun Jun 23, 2019 8:35 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Young Aussie - Anxious but Ambitious Planning
Replies: 24
Views: 1152

Re: Young Aussie - Anxious but Ambitious Planning

@longinvest - wouldn't your above method mean OP get's used to spending last year's salary (with bonus) (1) I only suggested to save the bonuses in the savings account, not the base salary. (2) I suggested to consider shifting the inclusion of bonus income to the next year (divided relatively equal...
by longinvest
Sun Jun 23, 2019 8:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Annuities objectively considered
Replies: 125
Views: 9522

Re: Annuities objectively considered

The other question that I have to which I cannot get an answer is this: why is there only one company (The Principal) that now offers a CPI-U rider (many more used to do so)? I can only come up with three logical answers: (1) there is very limited demand so insurance companies cannot justify offeri...
by longinvest
Sat Jun 22, 2019 6:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Rebalancing to Oblivion
Replies: 39
Views: 2777

Re: Rebalancing to Oblivion

It could actually be worse. The book value is based on today's value of the underlying assets. If no one's willing to buy those assets, they become value less. Yes, of course. The question is if it's reasonable to calibrate one's financial plan on a total collapse of the financial system. I was sim...
by longinvest
Sat Jun 22, 2019 5:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Rebalancing to Oblivion
Replies: 39
Views: 2777

Re: Rebalancing to Oblivion

As I've learned more about investing, I've sliced and diced the portfolio to make it more tax efficient - (and more complicated to rebalance). Pros and cons. The more I learn, the more uncertain I grow about the alleged tax-efficiency of locating assets in various accounts. Logically, one should ap...
by longinvest
Sat Jun 22, 2019 4:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Seeking practical help understanding “bid-ask spread” for ETFs
Replies: 52
Views: 2190

Re: Seeking practical help understanding “bid-ask spread” for ETFs

And one more thing while we are on the subject: Limit orders. People here have the false belief that limit orders should always be used. They are just another tool to consider. I will give an example of something I find interesting: Say bid/ask is 140.10 and 104.11, so one enters an order to buy at...
by longinvest
Sat Jun 22, 2019 4:26 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Rebalancing to Oblivion
Replies: 39
Views: 2777

Re: Rebalancing to Oblivion

2. The obvious counterargument to not rebalancing into stocks when stocks are down is to just hold less in stocks in the first place. In fact this rebalancing strategy probably reduces risk and reduces returns similar to just holding less in stocks. An analysis of the comparative prospects of the t...
by longinvest
Sat Jun 22, 2019 3:39 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015
Replies: 155
Views: 29574

Re: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015

Personally, my practical takeaway is DON'T PUT ALL YOUR EGGS IN ONE BASKET, MAXIMALLY DIVERSIFY AND BE ADAPTIVE. Don't believe that bonds are 'safe', sometimes they were, sometimes they were the biggest risk. Don't believe that equities will always provide a great premium, they often did, but somet...
by longinvest
Sat Jun 22, 2019 3:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Rebalancing to Oblivion
Replies: 39
Views: 2777

Re: Rebalancing to Oblivion

It seems like we need a floor of bonds that we won’t go below. I think we would not be able to stick to a rebalancing plan if our portfolio dropped by much more than half. OK. This doesn't stand the test of logic. Instead of setting a floor of bonds, it's best to reduce the stock allocation before ...
by longinvest
Sat Jun 22, 2019 1:50 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Young Aussie - Anxious but Ambitious Planning
Replies: 24
Views: 1152

Re: Young Aussie - Anxious but Ambitious Planning

AussierFinancier, just to warn you, this will be a long post where I'll first discuss retirement planning before addressing your more immediate budgeting-related question. I think that our wiki's VPW Accumulation And Retirement Worksheet can help you with selecting an appropriate savings amount that...
by longinvest
Fri Jun 21, 2019 11:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Getting caught up in minutia of investing-How to make things simple
Replies: 44
Views: 3250

Re: Getting caught up in minutia of investing-How to make things simple

Everyday I spend multiple hours reading on this forum. I thoroughly enjoy it, but then I wonder what is more important at the end of the day the fact that you put money away consistently or whether it was Roth or tax deferred. Which debt to tackle first vs just making strides to get something paid ...
by longinvest
Fri Jun 21, 2019 8:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Suggestion for updating "Asking Portfolio Questions" thread
Replies: 218
Views: 19488

Re: Suggestion for updating "Asking Portfolio Questions" thread

I think that 0.0% expense ratios don't make sense. How about this: * Please make sure that percentages add up to 100% across all of your accounts, not within each account. For example: Taxable: 35% Fidelity Total Lunar Active Fund (FLUNAR) (0.01%) 35% Schwab Black Hole Bonds Fund (SBLACKHOLE) (1.50%...
by longinvest
Fri Jun 21, 2019 6:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Behaviour once the game is won
Replies: 18
Views: 3089

Re: Behaviour once the game is won

If someone has reached FI at a comfortable 60 eq/40 bond weighting and 2.5-3% withdrawal rate (sub 40yo, FWIW), but continuing income for an indeterminable time (probably 3-24 months), I see the following options: Allocate future income to bonds only, no need to risk it... play safe Allocate future...
by longinvest
Wed Jun 19, 2019 9:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 846
Views: 280930

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

^^^ 8-) The vlogger has a very strong dislike of inflation-indexed Single Premium Immediate Annuities. I'm not sure, but I think the vlogger is approaching the point from a cost to purchase perspective (?). It would effectively be illogical for two streams of income, one with with fixed payments an...
by longinvest
Wed Jun 19, 2019 7:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: AA review - With a nod to 2008
Replies: 12
Views: 1397

Re: AA review - With a nod to 2008

Here's a link to a spreadsheet that implements a rational approach to retirement savings and withdrawals, taking into account retirement horizon, asset allocation, and pensions (like Social Security). I suggest to download the VPW Accumulation And Retirement Worksheet and entering the appropriate da...
by longinvest
Wed Jun 19, 2019 6:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 846
Views: 280930

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

The vlogosphere talks about VPW. :happy

I just saw this video on YouTube: Variable Percentage Withdrawal for Retirement Planning (2019).
by longinvest
Wed Jun 19, 2019 3:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 1-fund, 2-fund or 3-fund portfolio?
Replies: 20
Views: 2085

Re: 1-fund, 2-fund or 3-fund portfolio?

Also - why does the lazy 3-fund portfolio only include U.S. bonds? U.S. bonds are considered very safe, but wouldn't there be a diversification benefit from adding an international bond fund, like VTABX? Yes, international bonds diversify across various yield curves. I'm personally a fan of fixed a...
by longinvest
Mon Jun 17, 2019 5:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 846
Views: 280930

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

I've downloaded version 1.4 of the spreadsheet, filled in my info, and run into some confusion. [...] Unless I misunderstand what I'm seeing in the basic spreadsheet it suggests an annual portfolio withdrawl which bridges the gap between now and a pension which starts when I turn 65 in a few years....
by longinvest
Mon Jun 17, 2019 4:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 846
Views: 280930

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

One feature you had on previous spreadsheets was the ability to put in an inheritance amount to be left at the end of the term. That might be useful to have in this one as well. I like the idea of having a buffer amount available :happy . If you look at my posts of earlier today, you'll see that in...
by longinvest
Mon Jun 17, 2019 3:47 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: MacroHistory database data sources - Q&A and Feedback
Replies: 4
Views: 369

Re: MacroHistory database data sources - Q&A and Feedback

OK. I checked the Canadian data. It seems, at first sight, to be using Consumer Price Index (CPI), annual average , not seasonally adjusted, with 1990=100. On Statistics Canada's website (StatCan), we can get the historical annual average CPI going back to 1914 with 2002=100 here . By translating St...
by longinvest
Mon Jun 17, 2019 11:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 846
Views: 280930

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

And, here's the retirement in 1966 scenario:

Image

Note that the person using the VPW worksheet stopped portfolio contributions during the last decade of work, from 1956 to 1965, except for a $1,392 contribution in 1958.
by longinvest
Mon Jun 17, 2019 11:32 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 846
Views: 280930

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

Here's another simulation starting in 1949 and ending in 2019. Retirement is in 1989 after a nice portfolio recovery period.

Image
by longinvest
Mon Jun 17, 2019 11:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 846
Views: 280930

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

Here's the detailed simulation data in tabular form for my previous post . VPW Fixed Age Year Return Salary Pension Pension Cost Balance Contribution Withdrawal Available Balance Contribution Withdrawal Available 25 1942 4.75% $60,000 $3,180 $0 $6,566 $50,254 $0 $6,000 $50,820 26 1943 11.81% $60,000...
by longinvest
Mon Jun 17, 2019 11:16 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 846
Views: 280930

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

Two persons are born in 1917 and both start working at the age of 25 in 1942 getting a $60,000 salary which remains fixed, indexed to inflation, until both retire at age 65. During work years, both contribute $3,180 yearly to Social Security. Starting at age 65, both get $20,784 annually as Social S...
by longinvest
Mon Jun 17, 2019 7:34 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Annualized vs Cumulative Return
Replies: 8
Views: 555

Re: Annualized vs Cumulative Return

Our wiki has a calculator for this (online or download): Calculating personal returns.
by longinvest
Mon Jun 17, 2019 6:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 846
Views: 280930

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

One question I have on the Advanced Spreadsheet relates to the calculation of future Social Security and pension benefits. In my specific situation, I am currently Age 50 and hope to retire at Age 55. I hope to defer taking social security and a modest COLA pension until Age 70. The advanced user s...
by longinvest
Mon Jun 17, 2019 6:51 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW-adv) for Advanced Users
Replies: 50
Views: 7912

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW-adv) for Advanced Users

In another thread, Gjlynch17 asked: One question I have on the Advanced Spreadsheet relates to the calculation of future Social Security and pension benefits. In my specific situation, I am currently Age 50 and hope to retire at Age 55. I hope to defer taking social security and a modest COLA pensio...
by longinvest
Sun Jun 16, 2019 8:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 846
Views: 280930

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

Gjlynch17, none of the VPW spreadsheets contains a return prediction (or "expected return"). The VPW for advanced users spreadsheet has its own separate discussion thread.
by longinvest
Sun Jun 16, 2019 4:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 846
Views: 280930

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

Gjlynch17, the new VPW Accumulation And Retirement Worksheet states: A growth trend is a timeless wild-ass guess that aims to represent an annual return that is lower than a high annual return and higher than a low annual return. Its role is to distinguish between a high annual return and a low annu...
by longinvest
Sun Jun 16, 2019 3:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 846
Views: 280930

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

Longinvest - I'll echo what others have said and love the simplicity of the original and new spreadsheets. Question - In the case of my wife, if she takes her pension early, she gets a yearly "bonus" distribution until she turns 62, at which time the pension is "reduced" to its normal amount for th...
by longinvest
Sat Jun 15, 2019 7:37 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Cost of LifeStrategy Mod Grwth in Taxable VS Three Fund Portfolio plus VPAS
Replies: 25
Views: 1595

Re: Cost of LifeStrategy Mod Grwth in Taxable VS Three Fund Portfolio plus VPAS

It's important to make the right comparison, though. When logically adjusting asset allocation for taxes, it doesn't (foreseeably) matter which asset is located into which account . A simple solution is to use a mirror allocation in all accounts. When this is done, we're left comparing the overall c...
by longinvest
Fri Jun 14, 2019 5:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: From Simplicity to Complexity
Replies: 10
Views: 870

Re: From Simplicity to Complexity

And how have others effectively dealt with this tendency? Despite the temptations, I am continuing to stay the course. After I discovered the Bogleheads, I learned a lot. This lead to a series of portfolio changes. Each change (most very small) was fully justified. I eventually realized that if I c...
by longinvest
Fri Jun 14, 2019 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wellington VS Balanced Index
Replies: 36
Views: 6100

Re: Wellington VS Balanced Index

When I invest into a globally-diversified balanced index fund, like Vanguard's LifeStrategy Moderate Growth Fund, I seek to minimize the risk of having my money concentrated into an asset that will underperform in the future. I know that I'll get average returns, year after year after year. Yet, my ...
by longinvest
Fri Jun 14, 2019 2:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Case Against ETFs
Replies: 193
Views: 8660

Re: The Case Against ETFs

Can vanguard redeem shares of VBTLX at anything other than the NAV? what does that have to do with the difference between NAV and BND in times of liquidity crisis? No, it can't. But, how can NAV be known? Even in normal time, every marketable security has two prices: bid and ask. NAV has a single p...
by longinvest
Fri Jun 14, 2019 10:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Case Against ETFs
Replies: 193
Views: 8660

Re: The Case Against ETFs

True, but you would not be following your AA anymore. Plus, ordinary investors are putting away smaller amounts through DCA. If you’re investing $500 every paycheck, that’s real drag, with opportunity costs compounded over decades. Not following AA? What do you mean? Imagine you are investing $500 ...
by longinvest
Fri Jun 14, 2019 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Case Against ETFs
Replies: 193
Views: 8660

Re: The Case Against ETFs

Imagine you are investing $500 on pay day in 3 ETFs: VTI - $147 VXUS - $51 BND - $82 How can you maintain aa if you take the remainder and buy whatever fund you can with the leftover money? With small amounts, your aa percentage is going to fluctuate wildly or tilt one way just because of an arithm...
by longinvest
Fri Jun 14, 2019 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Case Against ETFs
Replies: 193
Views: 8660

Re: The Case Against ETFs

The whole share issue multiples for each additional fund in your portfolio (if you have a Boglehead 3 fund, you’ll have a fraction for each fund every time you invest, assuming you follow your AA). Plus, you’re out more than that amount because you’re missing out on compounding. It’s similar to Bog...
by longinvest
Fri Jun 14, 2019 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Case Against ETFs
Replies: 193
Views: 8660

Re: The Case Against ETFs

As for the unavailability of fractional shares, it isn't an issue. Between my wife and I, we have 7 accounts (2 tax-deferred, 2 tax-free, 1 "locked-in" tax-deferred, and 2 taxable). The price of VBAL is a little bit over $25. This means that, on average, we have (7 X ($25 / 2)) = $87.50 sitting in ...
by longinvest
Fri Jun 14, 2019 10:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Case Against ETFs
Replies: 193
Views: 8660

Re: The Case Against ETFs

As for the unavailability of fractional shares, it isn't an issue. Between my wife and I, we have 7 accounts (2 tax-deferred, 2 tax-free, 1 "locked-in" tax-deferred, and 2 taxable). The price of VBAL is a little bit over $25. This means that, on average, we have (7 X ($25 / 2)) = $87.50 sitting in ...
by longinvest
Fri Jun 14, 2019 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Case Against ETFs
Replies: 193
Views: 8660

Re: The Case Against ETFs

As for the unavailability of fractional shares, it isn't an issue. Between my wife and I, we have 7 accounts (2 tax-deferred, 2 tax-free, 1 "locked-in" tax-deferred, and 2 taxable). The price of VBAL is a little bit over $25. This means that, on average, we have (7 X ($25 / 2)) = $87.50 sitting in ...
by longinvest
Fri Jun 14, 2019 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Case Against ETFs
Replies: 193
Views: 8660

Re: The Case Against ETFs

I agree the study is small, but it’s more reason to tread carefully and not go all in on ETFs. Let's make this more concrete and less theoretical. My entire portfolio is invested into a single ETF, Vanguard Balanced ETF Portfolio (VBAL), which invests into more than 25,000 stocks and bonds worldwid...