Search found 3327 matches

by longinvest
Mon May 20, 2019 10:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: completely freaked out about withdrawing from retirement accounts....
Replies: 53
Views: 5176

Re: completely freaked out about withdrawing from retirement accounts....

But I need to know, is this hesitancy to touch my retirement funds something that folks go through? Or do other people just get over it? I'm not retired, but here's how I plan to deal with this. I intend to use our wiki's variable percentage withdrawal (VPW) method which allows a retiree to spend m...
by longinvest
Mon May 20, 2019 8:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social Security replacement annuity -- Is there such a product?
Replies: 41
Views: 2556

Re: Social Security replacement annuity -- Is there such a product?

I would just spend one of the two SS pensions, the bigger one. I'd invest the other in the portfolio. Actually, the second SS pension would simply reduce portfolio withdrawals. There's no reason to withdraw X from investments just to reinvest Y, instead of only withdrawing (X - Y). Maybe I need to ...
by longinvest
Sun May 19, 2019 8:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social Security replacement annuity -- Is there such a product?
Replies: 41
Views: 2556

Re: Social Security replacement annuity -- Is there such a product?

I would just spend one of the two SS pensions, the bigger one. I'd invest the other in the portfolio.

Actually, the second SS pension would simply reduce portfolio withdrawals. There's no reason to withdraw X from investments just to reinvest Y, instead of only withdrawing (X - Y).
by longinvest
Sun May 19, 2019 8:56 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: FIRE - What am I missing in the News Stories
Replies: 195
Views: 11263

Re: FIRE - What am I missing in the News Stories

What am I missing? Blogging is a business. A blog that suggested to find a career one enjoys (which contributes to society in some form or other), saving reasonably over decades and investing the money into a boring balanced portfolio, spending the rest to enjoy life with loved ones, and eventually...
by longinvest
Sat May 18, 2019 4:56 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to calculate exactly how much money you'll have by retirement?
Replies: 55
Views: 5388

Re: How to calculate exactly how much money you'll have by retirement?

"Shanebagel, what do you think of this retirement savings plan, so far?" Lol I'm thinking this is way more complex than I originally thought. I currently save around 5-$600 every month so I'm almost at that figure you quoted Thanks for the answer. I have two additional questions: If I was to build ...
by longinvest
Sat May 18, 2019 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expected return of a bond fund
Replies: 27
Views: 2649

Re: Expected return of a bond fund

Accurately predicting the exact future return of such a complex bond fund as a Total Bond Market fund over any future period of time (1 day to 60 years) is simply impossible . In the short term (1 day), a change in the yield curve (unknowable in advance) dominates total return. In the long term (2 ...
by longinvest
Sat May 18, 2019 12:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to calculate exactly how much money you'll have by retirement?
Replies: 55
Views: 5388

Re: How to calculate exactly how much money you'll have by retirement?

You say "would allow early retirement at age 55", might be better to say "could likely allow . . . ". In talking about the future I try to use words or phrases like "in my opinion", "could", "might", "probably" or "likely". Rulavalon, you're right. I've modified my text to say that it's "a good eno...
by longinvest
Sat May 18, 2019 10:52 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to calculate exactly how much money you'll have by retirement?
Replies: 55
Views: 5388

Re: How to calculate exactly how much money you'll have by retirement?

Shanebagel, in my previous post , we've calculated that saving $370 every two weeks (that's $9,621 per year) on a $50,000 annual salary is a good enough initial starting point to target an early retirement at age 55 that preserves one's (flexible) standard of living. Reminder: All amounts, in this p...
by longinvest
Fri May 17, 2019 10:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expected return of a bond fund
Replies: 27
Views: 2649

Re: Expected return of a bond fund

Here's a link to a post which provides two counterexamples to the statement: " The yield-to-maturity (YTM) of a bond fund predicts its future returns ". In other words, the linked post provides a mathematical proof that it is false to claim that the YTM of a bond fund predicts its future returns . ...
by longinvest
Fri May 17, 2019 6:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expected return of a bond fund
Replies: 27
Views: 2649

Re: Expected return of a bond fund

Here's a link to a post which provides two counterexamples to the statement: " The yield-to-maturity (YTM) of a bond fund predicts its future returns ". In other words, the linked post provides a mathematical proof that it is false to claim that the YTM of a bond fund predicts its future returns . B...
by longinvest
Fri May 17, 2019 5:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How tax-efficient are iShares Core in One ETFs in a taxable account?
Replies: 14
Views: 1313

Re: How tax-efficient are iShares Core in One ETFs in a taxable account?

My question is: Are iShares Core in One ETFs tax-efficient enough to be recommended for a single-ETF portfolio across accounts, including a taxable account, when an investor wishes to maintain a constant (80/20, 60/40, 40/60, or 20/80) asset allocation with global stock and bond exposure? AOR had a...
by longinvest
Fri May 17, 2019 5:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Confused about simplicity vs tax efficiency
Replies: 19
Views: 1580

Re: Confused about simplicity vs tax efficiency

So I calculated 600,000 in the account times .4% difference in Dividends = $24,000. I am in the 15% tax bracket so I think that means I paid 3600 more last year for being in the life strategy fund instead of the US stock market index. So megabad you are pretty darn close! This is off by a factor of...
by longinvest
Fri May 17, 2019 9:20 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to calculate exactly how much money you'll have by retirement?
Replies: 55
Views: 5388

Re: How to calculate exactly how much money you'll have by retirement?

Haha so essentially what you're saying is %20 invested from 22-65 would be sufficient? What would the dollar amount of that figure be? I'm saying that when targeting early retirement at age 55 , a 21-years old worker (near his 22nd birthday) with a $50,000 starting salary and a $30,000 portfolio in...
by longinvest
Fri May 17, 2019 9:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We’ve won the game...but how do we stop playing?
Replies: 72
Views: 6700

Re: We’ve won the game...but how do we stop playing?

*Note that the standard of financial academics has always been that the optimum use of money in retirement is to convert everything to an annuity at retirement, but that idea doesn't get much practical traction around here. To get to such a conclusion, academics probably model the future needs of r...
by longinvest
Fri May 17, 2019 7:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle's "On Asset Size" - will index funds close?
Replies: 5
Views: 699

Re: Bogle's "On Asset Size" - will index funds close?

The portfolio with the smallest market impact is William Sharpe's world bond-and-stock portfolio . It can be invested into by combining two ETFs: Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (VT) and Vanguard Total World Bond ETF (BNDW), rebalancing them to world market weights. The biggest difficulty for an inve...
by longinvest
Fri May 17, 2019 12:49 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to calculate exactly how much money you'll have by retirement?
Replies: 55
Views: 5388

Re: How to calculate exactly how much money you'll have by retirement?

Current age: 21 Current annual salary: 50,000, currently 16,000, but I am graduating from college in a year so I expect to make more money Current Portfolio size: 30,000 2060 target retirement date fund, 90% stocks 10% bonds Social security pensions unsure I don't know if this helps, but I also pla...
by longinvest
Wed May 15, 2019 8:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to calculate exactly how much money you'll have by retirement?
Replies: 55
Views: 5388

Re: How to calculate exactly how much money you'll have by retirement?

I invest in VTTSX which is a 2060 target retirement date fund through vanguard. What should I use as a percentage in my calculations? I have been using %7, as the market returns about %10 which adjusted for inflation is 3%? Thanks! I don't know exactly how much money I'll have by retirement. But, I...
by longinvest
Wed May 15, 2019 9:42 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to calculate exactly how much money you'll have by retirement?
Replies: 55
Views: 5388

Re: How to calculate exactly how much money you'll have by retirement?

I invest in VTTSX which is a 2060 target retirement date fund through vanguard. What should I use as a percentage in my calculations? I have been using %7, as the market returns about %10 which adjusted for inflation is 3%? Thanks! I don't know exactly how much money I'll have by retirement. But, I...
by longinvest
Wed May 15, 2019 9:42 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to calculate exactly how much money you'll have by retirement?
Replies: 55
Views: 5388

Re: How to calculate exactly how much money you'll have by retirement?

I invest in VTTSX which is a 2060 target retirement date fund through vanguard. What should I use as a percentage in my calculations? I have been using %7, as the market returns about %10 which adjusted for inflation is 3%? Thanks! I don't know exactly how much money I'll have by retirement. But, I...
by longinvest
Tue May 14, 2019 2:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to calculate exactly how much money you'll have by retirement?
Replies: 55
Views: 5388

Re: How to calculate exactly how much money you'll have by retirement?

I invest in VTTSX which is a 2060 target retirement date fund through vanguard. What should I use as a percentage in my calculations? I have been using %7, as the market returns about %10 which adjusted for inflation is 3%? Thanks! I don't know exactly how much money I'll have by retirement. But, I...
by longinvest
Tue May 14, 2019 12:42 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does your retirement plan work if stocks are flat or in decline for decades?
Replies: 180
Views: 10244

Re: Does your retirement plan work if stocks are flat or in decline for decades?

Question for those who answered yes to the OP's question, ie that their retirement plan will work even if stocks returns are flat, almost flat, or in decline for decades. What is percentage of your income are you saving every year (including taxable and IRA.401K/TSP/403)? Also, what's your age and ...
by longinvest
Tue May 14, 2019 11:08 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does your retirement plan work if stocks are flat or in decline for decades?
Replies: 180
Views: 10244

Re: Does your retirement plan work if stocks are flat or in decline for decades?

My retirement plan combines two types of retirement income: guaranteed stable lifelong income like Social Security, a pension (if any), and (if necessary) an inflation-indexed Single-Premium Immediate Annuity (inflation-indexed SPIA), and flexible withdrawals from a balanced global stocks/bonds port...
by longinvest
Tue May 14, 2019 9:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will a financial pro be WILLING to run your SWR plan after cognitive decline?
Replies: 55
Views: 3466

Re: Will a financial pro be WILLING to run your SWR plan after cognitive decline?

Those who intend to adopt the SWR (constant-dollar withdrawal) method, do they plan to lookup CPI-U numbers, every year, and update their withdrawal amount accordingly? Do they expect their spouse, children, or caretakers to do so, too, later? I find the VPW method much simpler to implement (in addi...
by longinvest
Mon May 13, 2019 5:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will a financial pro be WILLING to run your SWR plan after cognitive decline?
Replies: 55
Views: 3466

Re: Will a financial pro be WILLING to run your SWR plan after cognitive decline?

Fourth, we've simplified our portfolio down to a single all-in-one fund. This eliminates complexity for my wife or caretakers, if they have to take over financial management. Your overall plan is somewhat similar to ours. The above statement seems to indicate that your portfolio is already in a sin...
by longinvest
Mon May 13, 2019 3:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will a financial pro be WILLING to run your SWR plan after cognitive decline?
Replies: 55
Views: 3466

Re: Will a financial pro be WILLING to run your SWR plan after cognitive decline?

Fourth, we've simplified our portfolio down to a single all-in-one fund. This eliminates complexity for my wife or caretakers, if they have to take over financial management. Your overall plan is somewhat similar to ours. The above statement seems to indicate that your portfolio is already in a sin...
by longinvest
Mon May 13, 2019 9:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% stocks with 3% SWR with 60 years retirement period
Replies: 40
Views: 3642

Re: 100% stocks with 3% SWR with 60 years retirement period

It seems to me that the safest allocation, safest meaning the lowest, average and median portfolio balance at the end of 60 years, is 100% stocks. However i often see that 100% stocks is strongly discouraged on this forum and considering the data i have retrieved I would like to know why? Is there ...
by longinvest
Mon May 13, 2019 8:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will a financial pro be WILLING to run your SWR plan after cognitive decline?
Replies: 55
Views: 3466

Re: Will a financial pro be WILLING to run your SWR plan after cognitive decline?

Fourth, we've simplified our portfolio down to a single all-in-one fund. This eliminates complexity for my wife or caretakers, if they have to take over financial management. Converting everything to that sort of fund would have tax consequences, so maybe planning on using a advisor to optimize tha...
by longinvest
Mon May 13, 2019 7:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will a financial pro be WILLING to run your SWR plan after cognitive decline?
Replies: 55
Views: 3466

Re: Will a financial pro be WILLING to run your SWR plan after cognitive decline?

On this forum, SWR usually refers to the Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) portfolio withdrawal method which consists of withdrawing a fixed inflation-indexed amount of money from the portfolio. SWR is likely to result into an undesirable outcome for most of its adopters because it carries a small probabil...
by longinvest
Sun May 12, 2019 4:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset allocation-- "splitting" VTSAX and VTIAX?
Replies: 5
Views: 1090

Re: Asset allocation-- "splitting" VTSAX and VTIAX?

The most efficient portfolio is the world bond-and-stock portfolio according to the theory developed by Prof. William Sharpe, Nobel laureate. There's a specific thread about this theoretically most efficient portfolio: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=207804&p=4427528#p4427528. ...
by longinvest
Sun May 12, 2019 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Firecalc is telling me to be [aggressive]: 85/15. Should I trust the advice?
Replies: 39
Views: 4671

Re: Firecalc is telling me to be [aggressive]: 85/15. Should I trust the advice?

I'm using firecalc.com to backtest these scenarios (that resemble my situation). Seems like most of the times 85/15 stocks/bonds comes out best. This seems to be far from the common advice of bonds in age (close to 50/50 in my case). What do you think of these data? Is it wise for me to go 85/15? B...
by longinvest
Sun May 12, 2019 7:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How tax-efficient are iShares Core in One ETFs in a taxable account?
Replies: 14
Views: 1313

Re: How tax-efficient are iShares Core in One ETFs in a taxable account?

retiredjg wrote:
Sun May 12, 2019 7:37 am
I generally would not put an asset allocation fund in taxable. But there could be reasons to do it - for example a spouse who can't manage the portfolio any other way.
Thanks.
by longinvest
Sat May 11, 2019 3:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How tax-efficient are iShares Core in One ETFs in a taxable account?
Replies: 14
Views: 1313

Re: How tax-efficient are iShares Core in One ETFs in a taxable account?

In that case, I'd say "it depends". If you are in a high tax bracket or if you have a large taxable account in relation to the rest of your portfolio or if you want a high bond allocation, the answer would probably be "no, they are not tax-efficient enough". If your taxable account is pretty small ...
by longinvest
Sat May 11, 2019 1:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How tax-efficient are iShares Core in One ETFs in a taxable account?
Replies: 14
Views: 1313

Re: How tax-efficient are iShares Core in One ETFs in a taxable account?

No. Your question was whether balanced index ETFs are tax efficient or not. They aren't. I don't see how any of those things you mentioned affect tax-efficiency, but maybe I'm missing something. Retiredjg, there's only so many letters that fit within a thread title. Here's the end of my original po...
by longinvest
Sat May 11, 2019 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any conservative young investors?
Replies: 68
Views: 6262

Re: Any conservative young investors?

Unfortunately, it's not that simple. Over long periods of time, a portfolio with a gliding allocation delivers similar returns to a portfolio with a fixed allocation at the average of the glide. An investor using a portfolio with a glide from 100/0 down to 20/80 stocks/bonds during his life is like...
by longinvest
Sat May 11, 2019 12:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How tax-efficient are iShares Core in One ETFs in a taxable account?
Replies: 14
Views: 1313

Re: How tax-efficient are iShares Core in One ETFs in a taxable account?

Bonds are not tax-efficient because they throw off dividends. Dividends are taxable income whether you spend the money or not. Putting bonds into an ETF does not change that to my knowledge. I would not hold such a fund in taxable unless in a very low tax bracket (where convenience may be more impo...
by longinvest
Sat May 11, 2019 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How tax-efficient are iShares Core in One ETFs in a taxable account?
Replies: 14
Views: 1313

Re: How tax-efficient are iShares Core in One ETFs in a taxable account?

Vanguard Canada's Asset Allocation ETFs have a 0.25% expense ratio. That's higher than the weighted average MER of holding the underlying 7 ETFs. For example, VBAL (60/40 stocks bonds) has a 0.25% expense ratio but directly holding its 7 underlying ETFs would cost 0.16%. That's an extra 0.9%, or $90...
by longinvest
Sat May 11, 2019 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any conservative young investors?
Replies: 68
Views: 6262

Re: Any conservative young investors?

Instead of targeting same amount of money and retiring later, a conservative investor could aim to balance accumulation-time and retirement-time spending while retiring at the same age. As a result, he might only need to spend a little less than an aggressive investor. For a detailed mathematical e...
by longinvest
Sat May 11, 2019 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any conservative young investors?
Replies: 68
Views: 6262

Re: Any conservative young investors?

Instead of targeting same amount of money and retiring later, a conservative investor could aim to balance accumulation-time and retirement-time spending while retiring at the same age. As a result, he might only need to spend a little less than an aggressive investor. For a detailed mathematical e...
by longinvest
Sat May 11, 2019 10:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How tax-efficient are iShares Core in One ETFs in a taxable account?
Replies: 14
Views: 1313

How tax-efficient are iShares Core in One ETFs in a taxable account?

Are balanced index ETFs tax-efficient in a taxable account? US investors are often told that Vanguard's LifeStrategy funds are tax- in efficient in a taxable account and are encouraged to hold individual index funds for each asset instead (like Taylor's Three-Fund Portfolio ) as soon as they start i...
by longinvest
Sat May 11, 2019 9:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any conservative young investors?
Replies: 68
Views: 6262

Re: Any conservative young investors?

1) find ways to reduce expenditures to save more. 2) find ways to increase income to save more. Yes, but only up to a point. Some of us are natural savers. We need to remember that it's also important to live the present and enjoy opportunities that money provides. We have to balance accumulation-t...
by longinvest
Sat May 11, 2019 9:26 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you rent even if you can afford to buy?
Replies: 121
Views: 18661

Re: Do you rent even if you can afford to buy?

max12377 wrote:
Sat May 11, 2019 4:24 am
I look at renting as an investment that returns time not money.
Thanks.
by longinvest
Sat May 11, 2019 7:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any conservative young investors?
Replies: 68
Views: 6262

Re: Any conservative young investors?

Let's look at 6% vs 4.4% real returns. After 25 years of investing 0.5 years expenses annually, a 100% stock portfolio is expected to have 27% more money. That 100% stock portfolio could survive a 40% market drop at the worst possible time (right at retirement), and still do just as well as the 60/...
by longinvest
Fri May 10, 2019 8:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Any US equivalent of Canadian VGRO (Vanguard Growth Portfolio ETF)
Replies: 3
Views: 408

Re: Any US equivalent of Canadian VGRO (Vanguard Growth Portfolio ETF)

Anyone know if these single ETF solutions that form an entire portfolio consisting of stocks and bonds exist in the US? Or if these will someday also be available in the US? Vanguard Canada has quite a few One ETF portfolio solutions. https://www.vanguardcanada.ca/individual/etfs/about-our-asset-al...
by longinvest
Fri May 10, 2019 6:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Any US equivalent of Canadian VGRO (Vanguard Growth Portfolio ETF)
Replies: 3
Views: 408

Re: Any US equivalent of Canadian VGRO (Vanguard Growth Portfolio ETF)

Anyone know if these single ETF solutions that form an entire portfolio consisting of stocks and bonds exist in the US? Or if these will someday also be available in the US? Vanguard Canada has quite a few One ETF portfolio solutions. https://www.vanguardcanada.ca/individual/etfs/about-our-asset-al...
by longinvest
Fri May 10, 2019 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any conservative young investors?
Replies: 68
Views: 6262

Re: Any conservative young investors?

Backtesting says EDV is the best at 60% stock or higher I'm not so sure about EDV. Here's a backtest of 60/40 US Stocks/Synthetic EDV from 1966 to 1982: http://drive.google.com/uc?export=download&id=1Adhxms1if3bHMflqTo02cWozHis3Stsz In inflation-adjusted terms, this was a cumulative -87% loss for S...
by longinvest
Fri May 10, 2019 3:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1966-1982 Stock Market
Replies: 11
Views: 2301

Re: 1966-1982 Stock Market

I don't think adding bonds to a portfolio would have helped until the bond bull of the 80's? Bonds have dampened stock volatility over that period: http://drive.google.com/uc?export=download&id=1oWnPlF_VND_Mc3ZP-Nli6QclBALMKV2f From 1973 to 1975, the balanced portfolio lost 22% while stock were los...
by longinvest
Fri May 10, 2019 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any conservative young investors?
Replies: 68
Views: 6262

Re: Any conservative young investors?

My reasoning is somewhere along those lines. In all my calculations, the biggest factor always seems to be how much I invest. If stocks return 6% real and bonds 2% real, then a 60/40 fund should return approximately 4.4% real. In a 20-25 year period, 4.4% vs 6% is not astronomical and the total ret...
by longinvest
Thu May 09, 2019 6:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Equities AA
Replies: 13
Views: 1742

Re: 100% Equities AA

I would caution readers against choosing their asset allocation based on studies that model retirement using a withdrawal method that is most likely to result into an undesirable outcome. The constant inflation-indexed withdrawal model, often called Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR), is risky and inefficie...
by longinvest
Wed May 08, 2019 2:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to adjust my savings amount for inflation?
Replies: 4
Views: 419

Re: How to adjust my savings amount for inflation?

Let's assume at the start of 2018 I established a plan to save $1k per month every month until retirement. But I want this amount to increase with inflation. So this calculator tells me that $1000 in 2018 is equal to $1012.33 in 2019. Is it as simple as that? I should just contribute $1012.33 each ...
by longinvest
Wed May 08, 2019 7:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Equities AA
Replies: 13
Views: 1742

Re: 100% Equities AA

It appears that with bonds paying such low interest, a high percentage in equities may make sense. Personally, it's when I look at my overall financial plan that I discover the value of dampening portfolio fluctuations, even though I anticipate that stocks are likely (but not assured ) to significa...