Search found 2892 matches

by longinvest
Tue Aug 14, 2018 5:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW-adv) for Advanced Users
Replies: 36
Views: 3755

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW-adv) for Advanced Users

So, how does it work? I think that it's simpler to explain with an example. Let's take Joe. Hi is single. He has just retired at age 65 in 2018. He has a $10,000 pension ($833 per month), but the pension doesn't have provisions for cost of living adjustments. Joe has decided to delay Social Security...
by longinvest
Mon Aug 13, 2018 11:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW-adv) for Advanced Users
Replies: 36
Views: 3755

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW-adv) for Advanced Users

Here is a screenshot of the Instructions sheet (click on the image to enlarge it): https://drive.google.com/uc?export=download&id=1D4R9c9lfMEQ-XaGA2c_x00S-ys_PIexS Here are screenshots of the Advanced VPW sheet (click on images to enlarge them): https://drive.google.com/uc?export=download&id=1_dCUbi...
by longinvest
Mon Aug 13, 2018 1:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW-adv) for Advanced Users
Replies: 36
Views: 3755

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW-adv) for Advanced Users

Should the amount entered in Cell B8 be the amount an 80 year old would receive now, upon purchasing a $100,000 non-COLA SPIA? Or would it be the amount received at age 80 after purchasing one now (at age 60)? It's a Single-Premium Immediate Annuity (SPIA), so it's the amount an 80-year old would r...
by longinvest
Mon Aug 13, 2018 1:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW-adv) for Advanced Users
Replies: 36
Views: 3755

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW-adv) for Advanced Users

Why does it make the assumption that retirees will opt for an annuity at age 80? The new version of the spreadsheet is much softer in suggesting annuitization at 80. Instead, it estimates the impact of not annuitizing and continuing to apply VPW. Calculations, above age 80, continue to apply VPW on...
by longinvest
Mon Aug 13, 2018 1:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW-adv) for Advanced Users
Replies: 36
Views: 3755

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW-adv) for Advanced Users

GAAP, Minor thought for the future: you might want to add more pensions in the mix. I have a non-indexed pension, plus social security. My wife has two indexed pensions plus social security. I know couples where each have more than one indexed pension plus social security -- fairly common with gover...
by longinvest
Mon Aug 13, 2018 1:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW-adv) for Advanced Users
Replies: 36
Views: 3755

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW-adv) for Advanced Users

Siamond, Seems that you provided a good illustration of the methodology in this post. This essentially boils down to a net present value computation of the gap and a corresponding extra withdrawal, if I am not mistaken. ... Not exactly. While the simplicity of present value computations is very attr...
by longinvest
Mon Aug 13, 2018 1:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW-adv) for Advanced Users
Replies: 36
Views: 3755

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW-adv) for Advanced Users

I have uploaded version 2.0 of the spreadsheet. It is available online and to download from the links in the first post . Main changes: The master spreadsheet has been migrated to LibreOffice Calc. As a result, there are now three versions for user convenience: one online version (Google Sheets) and...
by longinvest
Sat Jul 21, 2018 12:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW-adv) for Advanced Users
Replies: 36
Views: 3755

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW-adv) for Advanced Users

I'll get it done, hopefully soon, but I don't want to promise a specific date and break my promise again. No big deal, in all fairness, making a duplicate copy of the Google Sheet is good enough to play around, this is a small spreadsheet. Could you please spend a little bit of time explaining the ...
by longinvest
Sat Jul 21, 2018 11:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A different take on retirement income: time segmentation
Replies: 179
Views: 12168

Re: A different take on retirement income: time segmentation

This strategy does not specify which withdrawal method to use for the ESP or DSP, only that they be more conservative with funds needed to cover essential spending than funds needed for discretionary spending. I see two orthogonal issues: planning for a desired lifelong stable income for essential ...
by longinvest
Sat Jul 21, 2018 10:32 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW-adv) for Advanced Users
Replies: 36
Views: 3755

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW-adv) for Advanced Users

That's annoying. I guess I'll have to do as I did with my other spreadsheets: develop the master copy with LibreOffice Calc and then export it to Google Sheets and Microsoft Excel. I'll try to do that next weekend. Hey longinvest, the download option from Google Sheet still seems to have issues (th...
by longinvest
Sat Jul 21, 2018 1:32 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A different take on retirement income: time segmentation
Replies: 179
Views: 12168

Re: A different take on retirement income: time segmentation

Willthrill81, I've provided a link to a thread presenting a spreadsheet that combines various calculations (and pensions) into a cohesive and robust retirement plan. Here's the quote: A more comprehensive and somewhat simpler * approach is presented in the thread Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW-...
by longinvest
Sat Jul 21, 2018 1:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A different take on retirement income: time segmentation
Replies: 179
Views: 12168

Re: A different take on retirement income: time segmentation

You'll note that I said "primarily." But with regard to VPW, the percentage withdrawals increase as retirees' age. Depending on how their portfolio performs, this could easily (likely in younger years) lead to larger withdrawals in real dollars over time. But the research is clear that two-thirds o...
by longinvest
Fri Jul 20, 2018 10:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A different take on retirement income: time segmentation
Replies: 179
Views: 12168

Re: A different take on retirement income: time segmentation

Willthrill81, Another problem not mentioned nearly as often is that while most of the traditional withdrawal strategies assume relatively fixed income needs from the point of retirement until death, this is not supported by real world data . Approximately two-thirds of retirees report that their spe...
by longinvest
Fri Jul 20, 2018 8:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 763
Views: 248647

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

Question: On the "Table" tab of the VPW document, the Long-Term Real Growth Trends is set to 5.0% for stocks and 1.8% for bonds, and there is a note that this is based on data from Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2016. When I look at the Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Year...
by longinvest
Sat Jun 30, 2018 9:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robert Merton on NewRetirement Podcast
Replies: 46
Views: 4961

Re: Robert Merton on NewRetirement Podcast

A bit of history. Long-Term Capital Management - Wikipedia LTCM was founded in 1994 by John W. Meriwether, the former vice-chairman and head of bond trading at Salomon Brothers. Members of LTCM's board of directors included Myron S. Scholes and Robert C. Merton , who shared the 1997 Nobel Memorial P...
by longinvest
Sat Jun 30, 2018 1:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equity Risk Premium over Two Centuries, 1825-2017
Replies: 27
Views: 2626

Re: Equity Risk Premium over Two Centuries, 1825-2017

Astute readers might have noticed that between 1968 and 2018, there were 50 years, yet the average duration of long-term government bonds usually oscillates between 15 and 20 years.
by longinvest
Sat Jun 30, 2018 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equity Risk Premium over Two Centuries, 1825-2017
Replies: 27
Views: 2626

Re: Equity Risk Premium over Two Centuries, 1825-2017

But once again, one needs to focus on the variance. While their world index average ERP over bonds in the 20th century was 4.6% CAGR, the standard deviation was 4.8%! According to the Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2018, Summary Edition , page 37, the equity premium relative to lo...
by longinvest
Sat Jun 30, 2018 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is warren buffet okay with no owning any bonds?
Replies: 48
Views: 4672

Re: Why is warren buffet okay with no owning any bonds?

No, I made a comment that applies to holding nominal bonds or bond funds in a mixed portfolio. I know and you know that the TIPS ladder LMP is a different case. But the comment here is about Buffett and we can't even figure out what he really means about assets at the simplest level, let alone with...
by longinvest
Sat Jun 30, 2018 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is warren buffet okay with no owning any bonds?
Replies: 48
Views: 4672

Re: Why is warren buffet okay with no owning any bonds?

Dear Dbr, I think it’s because he hasn’t done enough backtesting with FIRECalc. :sharebeer Actually one sure fire way to fail a portfolio in retirement is to not have enough in stocks and too much in bonds. 100% stocks is not a sure fire failure in FireCalc or any other calculator. This is not advic...
by longinvest
Fri Jun 29, 2018 6:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three-Fund Portfolio
Replies: 2222
Views: 1386221

Re: The Three-Fund Portfolio

Grandpadan, Hi, I am a newbie. Just want to know if this 3-fund portfolio still applies in today's market in general? I also want to know when is the best time purchased these funds? With the market high, should i wait till the market goes down first before purchasing these mutual funds? Welcome to ...
by longinvest
Fri Jun 29, 2018 7:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: YOUR rate of return
Replies: 15
Views: 1964

Re: YOUR rate of return

To compare with an index, one must use time-weighted portfolio returns, not money-weighted investor returns! For more information, see wiki: Calculating personal returns . Our wiki provides a convenient spreadsheet which calculates portfolio returns which can be easily compared with a benchmark, as ...
by longinvest
Mon Jun 25, 2018 8:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Long Term Factors
Replies: 27
Views: 2163

Re: Larry Swedroe: Long Term Factors

Warning to new members: Our forums allows discussions about the latest fads of the industry. But, when reading such threads, it is important to keep in mind author William Bernstein's words: To summarize, you are engaged in a life-and-death struggle with the financial services industry. Every dolla...
by longinvest
Mon Jun 25, 2018 8:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three-Fund Portfolio
Replies: 2222
Views: 1386221

Re: The Three-Fund Portfolio

I ordered the book and look forward to it. I wonder how tax-free bonds are treated/suggested. The Three Fund Portfolio, as often referred to here, seems to ignore large taxable portfolios. These, I think, would probably be better served by a tax-free muni bond fund rather than Vanguard Total Bond M...
by longinvest
Mon Jun 25, 2018 7:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: As time goes on, will total market investing become more perfect, and tilting strategies less?
Replies: 18
Views: 1529

Re: As time goes on, will total market investing become more perfect, and tilting strategies less?

Justin, What I'm asking is, there's a lot of people who still like to tilt and invest using factors. Will all this eventually go away due to everything being figured out due to computers, information, and data....or will there always be some edge where people think they'll be able to beat the market...
by longinvest
Sun Jun 24, 2018 7:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Low Bond Duration
Replies: 11
Views: 1078

Re: Low Bond Duration

Higher interest rates are not always good for bonds. As with everything it depends. I am old enough to have lived through the 70's. A gradual rise in rates due to an improving economy may be good for bonds over the long term but a more rapid rise in rates due to inflation is a disaster for bonds. M...
by longinvest
Sun Jun 24, 2018 6:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Low Bond Duration
Replies: 11
Views: 1078

Re: Low Bond Duration

Bob Brinker, a financial radio talk host, prefers low duration funds as opposed to let's say Vanguard Total Bond fund whose duration is around 6. His reasoning is that interest rates are and will continue to rise which will negatively effect principal. Any thoughts. Here's the opinion of our mentor...
by longinvest
Sun Jun 24, 2018 5:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small company effect is overstated due to flawed dataset
Replies: 12
Views: 1706

Re: Small company effect is overstated due to flawed dataset

If the "Small Company Effect" and "premium" are really robust, they should work in Canada too. Let's look: Source: Portfolio Visualizer Portfolio 1 ( blue ): iShares Core S&P/TSX Capped Composite Index ETF (XIC) Portfolio 2 ( red ): iShares S&P/TSX SmallCap Index ETF (XCS) The time period was automa...
by longinvest
Sun Jun 24, 2018 5:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hidden Index Bubble - I'd love to hear some thoughts!
Replies: 27
Views: 2229

Re: Hidden Index Bubble - I'd love to hear some thoughts!

Saw this article this morning and I'd love to hear some responses! https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/06/24/the-hidden-index-bubble.aspx Instead of listening to the noise spread by the fool.com website, I would consider the wise words of Taylor Larimore, author and co-founder of this forum, in thi...
by longinvest
Sun Jun 24, 2018 4:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a point of "Peak Passive" with index funds?
Replies: 12
Views: 1221

Re: Is there a point of "Peak Passive" with index funds?

Dear Noob0707, 2. A passively managed fund that adheres to a specific index (such as VFINX tracking the S&P 500) has to hold stock in the 500 largest companies in the US equities market. Therefore everyone knows its purchase decisions. What if outside investors buy up a company's stock immediately a...
by longinvest
Fri Jun 22, 2018 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: How To Use Benchmarks
Replies: 6
Views: 567

Re: Larry Swedroe: How To Use Benchmarks

Here are the exact words of the New York Times article, again: For illustration purposes, [Larry Swedroe] points people to the S.& P. 500 index, which returned about 10 percent annually between 1970 and 2010. If you wanted to gin up a portfolio to match closely (at 9.8 percent) that performance with...
by longinvest
Fri Jun 22, 2018 9:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: How To Use Benchmarks
Replies: 6
Views: 567

Re: Larry Swedroe: How To Use Benchmarks

Dear Dave, Thank you for providing an opportunity to discuss the Larry Swedroe's own endorsed misuse of benchmarks to promote active investing (which he calls "factor investing"). Here's the context. On December 23, 2011, Ron Lieber made the Larry Portfolio known to the wide public with his " Taking...
by longinvest
Fri Jun 22, 2018 7:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is technology the reason for low inflation?
Replies: 57
Views: 3394

Re: Is technology the reason for low inflation?

Valuethinker, Effectively, in this speech ( 25 Years of Inflation Targets: Certainty for Uncertain Times ), the Governor of the Bank of Canada says " It was quite a blow to the economics profession when, in 1982, then-Governor Gerald Bouey famously dropped the bombshell that we would no longer targe...
by longinvest
Fri Jun 22, 2018 7:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Books For Learning?
Replies: 11
Views: 1146

Re: Best Books For Learning?

Here's an awesome new book to learn about investing and risk: The Bogleheads' Guide to the Three-Fund Portfolio : How a Simple Portfolio of Three Total Market Index Funds Outperforms Most Investors with Less Risk , Taylor Larimore, 2018. Using the above Amazon link will result in a small referral fe...
by longinvest
Fri Jun 22, 2018 6:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three-Fund Portfolio
Replies: 2222
Views: 1386221

Re: The Three-Fund Portfolio

I bought the electronic version of Taylor Larimore's new book The Bogleheads' Guide to the Three-Fund Portfolio yesterday.

Thank you, Taylor!

I highly recommend this book to readers of this thread!
by longinvest
Fri Jun 22, 2018 6:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor Investing Makes Someone Money, But Maybe Not You
Replies: 126
Views: 9286

Re: Factor Investing Makes Someone Money, But Maybe Not You

“Factor investing” is often discussed as if exposure to the market is not a risk factor, while it is the largest of those in the Fama-French article. Everyone who holds an equity market portfolio does “factor investing”, having exposure to a single risk factor. So factor investing can be very simpl...
by longinvest
Thu Jun 21, 2018 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is technology the reason for low inflation?
Replies: 57
Views: 3394

Re: Is technology the reason for low inflation?

I don't think that technology anything to do with inflation. Monetary policy, on the other hand, has a significant impact. For instance, Canada’s monetary policy framework consists of two key components that work together: an inflation-control target which is 2%, the midpoint of a 1 to 3 per cent ta...
by longinvest
Thu Jun 21, 2018 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does an IPS really need to be 5 pages long to be valuable?
Replies: 64
Views: 3547

Re: Does an IPS really need to be 5 pages long to be valuable?

Taylor Larimore wrote:
Thu Jun 21, 2018 11:06 am
I do not have an IPS (Investment Policy Statement). With only three broad market index funds, plus a "stay-the-course" philosophy, I found an IPS to be an unnecessary waste of time.
Our lives are frittered away with detail. Simplify. Simplify. -- Henry David Thoreau
Thanks!
by longinvest
Tue Jun 19, 2018 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]
Replies: 198
Views: 12492

Re: I feel like selling my 3 fund

OK. We've got your posts on this thread to attest of a possible significant cash drag. I'll link to it when the other thread is unlocked due to portfolio changes.
by longinvest
Tue Jun 19, 2018 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]
Replies: 198
Views: 12492

Re: I feel like selling my 3 fund

Returns are calculated on investment assets, not on total assets. We don't need to account for your net worth. But, we need to account for all money available to invest. This includes the extra $1M you told the OP of this thread you're " not willing to put in the markets now ". What is an "investme...
by longinvest
Tue Jun 19, 2018 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]
Replies: 198
Views: 12492

Re: I feel like selling my 3 fund

Returns are calculated on investment assets, not net worth. We don't need to account for your net worth. But, we need to account for all money available to invest. This includes the extra $1M you told the OP of this thread you're "not willing to put in the markets now".
by longinvest
Tue Jun 19, 2018 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]
Replies: 198
Views: 12492

Re: I feel like selling my 3 fund

OP, I have over $1M in savings accounts that I am not willing to put in the markets now for the same reasons you noted. Wait, in your other thread that got locked you said: $277,270.87 Cash for Investing Now it's over a million? This is why no one believes you in the other thread. $277k in 401(k)/I...
by longinvest
Tue Jun 19, 2018 8:25 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]
Replies: 198
Views: 12492

Re: I feel like selling my 3 fund

OP, I have over $1M in savings accounts that I am not willing to put in the markets now for the same reasons you noted. Wait, in your other thread that got locked you said: $277,270.87 Cash for Investing Now it's over a million? This is why no one believes you in the other thread. $277k in 401(k)/I...
by longinvest
Sun Jun 17, 2018 7:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do you sell after the emergency fund?
Replies: 25
Views: 1624

Re: What do you sell after the emergency fund?

KlangFool, Let's assume the following scenario, recession hits, and the stock market drops 50%. Then, you are unemployed. You used up your emergency fund. Now, you have to use your portfolio to feed your family. What do you sell next? I'll speak about what I do. So, just to be clear, I don't have an...
by longinvest
Sun Jun 17, 2018 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]
Replies: 198
Views: 12492

Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

livesoft wrote:
Sun Jun 17, 2018 11:58 am
^I would also suggest posting a benchmark return or performance for comparison. After all, if one gets 30%, but an index fund benchmark makes 40%, then that is not impressive.
Great idea! What benchmark do you suggest?
by longinvest
Sat Jun 16, 2018 8:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]
Replies: 198
Views: 12492

Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Important note: I don't endorse, in any way, the OP's portfolio and investing philosophy. I am providing the holdings and transactions spreadsheet to help verify the OP's claims using a forward test of his investing approach. I fully adhere to the Bogleheads investment philosophy and I'm a big fan ...
by longinvest
Sat Jun 16, 2018 7:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]
Replies: 198
Views: 12492

Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Investors wishing to track their own performance can download the spreadsheet from the wiki: Calculating personal returns Questions on using the spreadsheet can be asked in the support thread: A Returns Spreadsheet for Bogleheads Thank you for the links. The transactions and holdings spreadsheet I'...
by longinvest
Sat Jun 16, 2018 5:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]
Replies: 198
Views: 12492

Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Here's a screenshot of portfolio holdings as of June 16, 2018 (using Friday's closing prices extracted from Morningstar).

Image
by longinvest
Sat Jun 16, 2018 5:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]
Replies: 198
Views: 12492

Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Here's a screenshot of the initial contribution and buy transactions:

Image
by longinvest
Sat Jun 16, 2018 5:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]
Replies: 198
Views: 12492

Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

I've created a simple spreadsheet to keep track of total portfolio holdings from contributions, withdrawals, buy and sell transactions, distributions, and fees. Here's the link: mdp-holdings-and-transactions I understand that the OP will provide us with timely information in this thread to keep the ...
by longinvest
Sat Jun 16, 2018 5:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]
Replies: 198
Views: 12492

Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

- amount = shares - fund (as of 6/15/2018) $291,437.17 = 1,129.689 - VFIAX (Vanguard 500 Admiral) $32,675.52 = 655.214 - VQNPX (Vanguard Growth and Income) $5,837.29 = 244.034 - VWNDX (Vanguard Windsor Fund) $89,407.53 = 4896.360 - UNPIX (Profunds Ultra International Fund) $194,301.02 = 7205.005 - ...