Search found 2850 matches

by longinvest
Sun Jun 17, 2018 7:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do you sell after the emergency fund?
Replies: 25
Views: 1238

Re: What do you sell after the emergency fund?

KlangFool, Let's assume the following scenario, recession hits, and the stock market drops 50%. Then, you are unemployed. You used up your emergency fund. Now, you have to use your portfolio to feed your family. What do you sell next? I'll speak about what I do. So, just to be clear, I don't have an...
by longinvest
Sun Jun 17, 2018 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]
Replies: 174
Views: 9872

Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

livesoft wrote:
Sun Jun 17, 2018 11:58 am
^I would also suggest posting a benchmark return or performance for comparison. After all, if one gets 30%, but an index fund benchmark makes 40%, then that is not impressive.
Great idea! What benchmark do you suggest?
by longinvest
Sat Jun 16, 2018 8:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]
Replies: 174
Views: 9872

Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Important note: I don't endorse, in any way, the OP's portfolio and investing philosophy. I am providing the holdings and transactions spreadsheet to help verify the OP's claims using a forward test of his investing approach. I fully adhere to the Bogleheads investment philosophy and I'm a big fan ...
by longinvest
Sat Jun 16, 2018 7:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]
Replies: 174
Views: 9872

Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Investors wishing to track their own performance can download the spreadsheet from the wiki: Calculating personal returns Questions on using the spreadsheet can be asked in the support thread: A Returns Spreadsheet for Bogleheads Thank you for the links. The transactions and holdings spreadsheet I'...
by longinvest
Sat Jun 16, 2018 5:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]
Replies: 174
Views: 9872

Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Here's a screenshot of portfolio holdings as of June 16, 2018 (using Friday's closing prices extracted from Morningstar).

Image
by longinvest
Sat Jun 16, 2018 5:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]
Replies: 174
Views: 9872

Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Here's a screenshot of the initial contribution and buy transactions:

Image
by longinvest
Sat Jun 16, 2018 5:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]
Replies: 174
Views: 9872

Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

I've created a simple spreadsheet to keep track of total portfolio holdings from contributions, withdrawals, buy and sell transactions, distributions, and fees. Here's the link: mdp-holdings-and-transactions I understand that the OP will provide us with timely information in this thread to keep the ...
by longinvest
Sat Jun 16, 2018 5:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]
Replies: 174
Views: 9872

Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

- amount = shares - fund (as of 6/15/2018) $291,437.17 = 1,129.689 - VFIAX (Vanguard 500 Admiral) $32,675.52 = 655.214 - VQNPX (Vanguard Growth and Income) $5,837.29 = 244.034 - VWNDX (Vanguard Windsor Fund) $89,407.53 = 4896.360 - UNPIX (Profunds Ultra International Fund) $194,301.02 = 7205.005 - ...
by longinvest
Sun Jun 10, 2018 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]
Replies: 174
Views: 9872

Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Still waiting for the detailed list of securities in the initial portfolio.
by longinvest
Sun Jun 10, 2018 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]
Replies: 174
Views: 9872

Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Minimally, we'd need enough information to fill an unbiased and public Bogleheads-type return spreadsheet to calculate both money-weighted and time-weighted returns. In other words, the following rules must be rigorously followed: A new $0 hypothetical portfolio is started today, June 10, 2018. Eve...
by longinvest
Sun Jun 10, 2018 12:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are you including SS in your planning model? Are the benefits really that high?
Replies: 148
Views: 10968

Re: Are you including SS in your planning model? Are the benefits really that high?

From the point of view of a non American (Canadian) SS seems incredibly generous. Canada’s equivalent CPP tops out at about $1,500/ month. CPP is however well funded and not at risk for at least 50 years. I did not include CPP in any of my pre retirement analysis because it would not have been mate...
by longinvest
Sun Jun 10, 2018 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule
Replies: 159
Views: 17790

Re: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule

willthrill81 wrote:
Sun Jun 10, 2018 10:37 am
And of course, early retirees can likely reenter the workforce if they encounter a really poor sequence of returns with greater ease than someone in their 60s or 70s.
Is it a good idea to plan on reentering the workforce during a severe market downturn, most probably caused by a deep recession?
by longinvest
Sun Jun 10, 2018 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]
Replies: 174
Views: 9872

Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

^Sorry, trades cannot be published 24 hours late. They have to be published within a minute or two of execution, but preferably BEFORE execution. And day trading is most certainly allowed as long as orders are published in near real-time. Shorting and leveage is also allowed. No sane reader of this...
by longinvest
Sun Jun 10, 2018 10:09 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]
Replies: 174
Views: 9872

Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Minimally, we'd need enough information to fill an unbiased and public Bogleheads-type return spreadsheet to calculate both money-weighted and time-weighted returns. In other words, the following rules must be rigorously followed: A new $0 hypothetical portfolio is started today, June 10, 2018. Ever...
by longinvest
Sat Jun 09, 2018 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule
Replies: 159
Views: 17790

Re: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule

Marcopolo,
marcopolo wrote:
Sat Jun 09, 2018 3:19 pm
I played around with the spreadsheet a little bit. A question comes to mind.
Did my answers help?
by longinvest
Sat Jun 09, 2018 4:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule
Replies: 159
Views: 17790

Re: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule

The buyer pays an amount $X and gets a monthly payment $Y for life . Both $X and $Y are known at the time of purchase and written on the short and simple contract. There might be some "nominal dollar" uncertainty if $Y is indexed to the CPI-U, but this is only because the CPI-U-indexed value of $Y ...
by longinvest
Sat Jun 09, 2018 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule
Replies: 159
Views: 17790

Re: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule

Reading threads like this re-assures my belief that we need 'Bogleheads Annuity Solutions'. Everybody is concerned with running out of money, living past 100, etc. No one is shooting for the average scenario. That's where insurance comes in. Unfortunately, annuity providers have too many fees. 1- S...
by longinvest
Sat Jun 09, 2018 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule
Replies: 159
Views: 17790

Re: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule

Reading threads like this re-assures my belief that we need 'Bogleheads Annuity Solutions'. Everybody is concerned with running out of money, living past 100, etc. No one is shooting for the average scenario. That's where insurance comes in. Unfortunately, annuity providers have too many fees. 1- S...
by longinvest
Sat Jun 09, 2018 3:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule
Replies: 159
Views: 17790

Re: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule

Marcopolo, Having said that, I just entered (early) retirement recently, and while I have not formally adopted a VPW plan, I think my planned approach will actually end up being effectively close to what VPW would achieve. Start at 50/50 AA. Be flexible with withdrawals (our budget includes more tha...
by longinvest
Sat Jun 09, 2018 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Benjamin Graham's lesson on timing
Replies: 23
Views: 2731

Re: Benjamin Graham's lesson on timing

Graham also recommended that the default portfolio be 50/50 and that portfolio asset allocations for the most defensive and most enterprising investors should be between 25/75 and 75/25, he learned from his experience. "The Intelligent Investor" I don't know enough about timing to stray away from G...
by longinvest
Sat Jun 09, 2018 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are investment returns and why am i down money on it?
Replies: 5
Views: 858

Re: What are investment returns and why am i down money on it?

Our wiki's online Personal Return Spreadsheet can be used to calculate a portfolio return, taking into account monthly contributions and account balances. This portfolio return can then be compared to the benchmark's return over the same investment period.
by longinvest
Sat Jun 09, 2018 2:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rising Interest Rate Strategy
Replies: 35
Views: 4002

Re: Rising Interest Rate Strategy

Here's the take of our mentor, Jack Bogle, about a rising interest rate strategy: http://www.aaii.com/journal/article/achieving-greater-long-term-wealth-through-index-funds.touch (June 2014) CR (Charles Rotblut) : What about bond funds? A lot of our members are concerned about the direction of inter...
by longinvest
Sat Jun 09, 2018 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule
Replies: 159
Views: 17790

Re: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule

marcopolo wrote:
Sat Jun 09, 2018 11:57 am
By the way, why did the initial WR jump to 5.8% in this run compared to 4.4% before?
Because VPW adapts to the portfolio's asset allocation in addition to the age of the retiree. See the VPW table.
by longinvest
Sat Jun 09, 2018 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule
Replies: 159
Views: 17790

Re: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule

If VPW is giving you withdrawal amounts that are "too low" should the stock market drop 50%, then you probably don't have enough money to retire yet. Hmm. Is that really true? Isn't the whole idea of the various SWR studies an attempt to smooth out withdrawals so that you can have higher withdrawal...
by longinvest
Sat Jun 09, 2018 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule
Replies: 159
Views: 17790

Re: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule

Having said that, I just entered (early) retirement recently, and while I have not formally adopted a VPW plan, I think my planned approach will actually end up being effectively close to what VPW would achieve. Start at 50/50 AA. Be flexible with withdrawals (our budget includes more than 50% disc...
by longinvest
Sat Jun 09, 2018 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule
Replies: 159
Views: 17790

Re: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule

I have no pension Soc Sec is 18 years away SPIA are not very effective at age 52, especially COLA ones. All I have is my portfolio. Even if i set a portion of it aside in TIPS to provide steady income until SS, it is still a part of my portfolio. While I fully expect to be flexible with my spending...
by longinvest
Sat Jun 09, 2018 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule
Replies: 159
Views: 17790

Re: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule

What happened in the 2000 scenario when both SWR and VPW used the same 30/70 AA? Let me guess without using the spreadsheet: The SWR adopter got $40,000 withdrawal each year, from 2000 to 2018, for an average withdrawal of $40,000. Based on my previous post , the VPW adopter got withdrawals varying...
by longinvest
Sat Jun 09, 2018 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule
Replies: 159
Views: 17790

Re: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule

I think this is a bit comparing apples and oranges. I think this more showing the benefit of having a balanced portfolio, rather than the benefits (I assume there is some) to using VPW. What would have happened with the same "sensible" 30/70 AA for both withdrawal strategies? We're trying to test t...
by longinvest
Sat Jun 09, 2018 10:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule
Replies: 159
Views: 17790

Re: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule

Imagine a person retiring at the beginning of January 2000 at age 65 with a $1,000,000 portfolio. Having backtested SWR extensively with FireCalc and concluded that 100% stocks is the best for portfolio survival, and having heard Warren Buffett say that bonds are much riskier than stocks (reinforcin...
by longinvest
Fri Jun 08, 2018 4:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the cap-weighted AA?
Replies: 4
Views: 415

Re: What is the cap-weighted AA?

William Sharpe's World Bond/Stock Portfolio (WBS) is described in our wiki: World Bond/Stock Portfolio . Discussions about it can be found in forum topic: Bill Sharpe's preferred portfolio . This portfolio will soon be implementable using only two ETFs: Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (VT) Vanguard T...
by longinvest
Fri Jun 08, 2018 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule
Replies: 159
Views: 17790

Re: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule

On this beautiful Friday, it's sunny and warm, outside. Looking at the statistics of the past half-century, I know that it can get pretty cold out there. If I was to live my life like a mythical * 4% Safe withdrawal rate (SWR) adopter, I wouldn't go outside without my winter coat on, because that wa...
by longinvest
Thu Jun 07, 2018 8:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, you can diversify a market portfolio
Replies: 190
Views: 9282

Re: Yes, you can diversify a market portfolio

However, from 1926 through 2017, using the SBBI data sets, we did not see this. Substituting long-term for intermediate-term bonds in a 60/40 portfolio increased the standard deviation of the portfolio as a whole, also increased the return, and overall resulted in a virtually identical Sharpe ratio...
by longinvest
Thu Jun 07, 2018 8:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, you can diversify a market portfolio
Replies: 190
Views: 9282

Re: Yes, you can diversify a market portfolio

@nisiprius, I had to write a little side note about your comment. my personal view is that you might as well increase duration up to about intermediate term , for the reasons you mention--portfolio risk is so overwhelmingly dominated by equity. But when you are in the long-term space, you are starti...
by longinvest
Wed Jun 06, 2018 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Basic 30-year TIPS vs 30-Year Treasury Bond Question
Replies: 9
Views: 530

Re: Basic 30-year TIPS vs 30-Year Treasury Bond Question

Everytime I think I understand TIPS vs Treasuries, I confuse myself. ... Just to confirm: ... This makes the assumed "break even" point between the two bonds equal to 2.125%. This is based upon the market's assumption of future annual inflation over the next 30 years. I recognize that inflation is ...
by longinvest
Wed Jun 06, 2018 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds Question
Replies: 15
Views: 669

Re: Bonds Question

My brokerage shows me lots of such meaningless numbers (with percentages, along with them, just to confuse me even more). That's why I've developed a spreadsheet to figure out my personal returns. I've shared it and then improved it with the help of Bogleheads. You might be interested in it: Page in...
by longinvest
Wed Jun 06, 2018 9:07 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds Question
Replies: 15
Views: 669

Re: Bonds Question

OP here.... .Thanks for the replies..... To clarify/provide more info... in looking at the account for my Total Bond Fund: The quantity of shares is 3,483. The "cost per share": $10.95 Total Cost: $38,154. Market Value as of 6/4/2018: $36,267 Under Capital Gain/Loss-- Short Term -$47.59. Long-Term:...
by longinvest
Wed Jun 06, 2018 8:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds Question
Replies: 15
Views: 669

Re: Bonds Question

When investing into a bond fund (or, everytime one decides to leave his investment into a bond fund), one must always consider the fund's average duration . In the case of Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund Investor Shares (VBMFX), the average duration is approximately 6 years. One should be read...
by longinvest
Wed Jun 06, 2018 8:29 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds Question
Replies: 15
Views: 669

Re: Bonds Question

Many brokerages only show gains/losses on a price-only basis. This is misleading. It's true that $10,000 invested into Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund Investor Shares (VBMFX) 8 years ago would have shrunk to $9,886, if distributions were withdrawn from the portfolio , instead of being reinvest...
by longinvest
Tue Jun 05, 2018 7:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do bond funds lose value while CDs do not?
Replies: 31
Views: 3332

Re: Do bond funds lose value while CDs do not?

CD's do have one inherent advantage over both bonds and bond funds. If interest rates should rise substantially, you can redeem your CD's (not brokered CD's) and pay and EWP (early withdrawal penalty). There are two sides to this. CD's do have one inherent drawback relative to both bonds and bond f...
by longinvest
Mon Jun 04, 2018 7:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is it fine to have 100% of portfolio in VTSAX
Replies: 33
Views: 3104

Re: Is it fine to have 100% of portfolio in VTSAX

By having 100% VTSAX portfolio will avoid me yearly balancing and I can automate the money going to the brokerage account and forget about it . A better solution would be a one-fund portfolio. I would suggest: Vanguard Target Retirement 2055 Fund (VFFVX) which is targeted at people of age 29-33 and...
by longinvest
Sun Jun 03, 2018 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds in 401k or Roth? Doesn't matter
Replies: 11
Views: 850

Re: Bonds in 401k or Roth? Doesn't matter

No, by allocation across accounts (what our wiki calls a spread asset allocation ), I mean minimizing the number of holdings. For example, my portfolio contains 4 ETFs spread across 3 accounts, resulting into 6 holdings as 2 ETFs are spread across two accounts. I don't tax adjust. A mirrored asset ...
by longinvest
Sun Jun 03, 2018 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Location Gets REALLY Complex [Tax-ajusted asset allocation]
Replies: 21
Views: 2141

Re: Asset Location Gets REALLY Complex

Dear Marcopolo, This is exactly the right conclusion. It IS complicated and it DOESN'T matter much, at least at these low interest rates. Yes, I would say 0.2%-0.3% as the average benefit is close enough to 0% to ignore, especially since it just an average with no guarantee that you will get that be...
by longinvest
Sun Jun 03, 2018 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds in 401k or Roth? Doesn't matter
Replies: 11
Views: 850

Re: Bonds in 401k or Roth? Doesn't matter

Why not mirror the allocation in all accounts, instead? Or simply allocate across accounts but ignore tax adjustments, because it won't make a foreseeable significant difference? If by "allocating across all accounts" you mean "apply your asset allocation equally to all funds (401k, roth, etc)", th...
by longinvest
Sun Jun 03, 2018 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds in 401k or Roth? Doesn't matter
Replies: 11
Views: 850

Re: Bonds in 401k or Roth? Doesn't matter

Let me state it another way then: discount the 401k by your best estimate of the amount it will be taxed in retirement. If that's 0, fine. But you need to do this if you are going to be consistent. Why not mirror the allocation in all accounts, instead? Or simply allocate across accounts but ignore...
by longinvest
Sun Jun 03, 2018 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds in 401k or Roth? Doesn't matter
Replies: 11
Views: 850

Re: Bonds in 401k or Roth? Doesn't matter

Of course, you don't actually know what your retirement income tax is going to be - but it won't be 0 . We don't know this! In a private discussion with former forum member Cut-Throat (author of the famous Delay Social Security to age 70 and Spend more money at 62 post) he wrote: I have heard the c...
by longinvest
Sun Jun 03, 2018 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Location Gets REALLY Complex [Tax-ajusted asset allocation]
Replies: 21
Views: 2141

Re: Asset Location Gets REALLY Complex

This is exactly the right conclusion. It IS complicated and it DOESN'T matter much, at least at these low interest rates. Yes, I would say 0.2%-0.3% as the average benefit is close enough to 0% to ignore, especially since it just an average with no guarantee that you will get that benefit. I wonder...
by longinvest
Sun Jun 03, 2018 9:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Location Gets REALLY Complex [Tax-ajusted asset allocation]
Replies: 21
Views: 2141

Re: Asset Location Gets REALLY Complex

This is exactly the right conclusion. It IS complicated and it DOESN'T matter much, at least at these low interest rates. Yes, I would say 0.2%-0.3% as the average benefit is close enough to 0% to ignore, especially since it just an average with no guarantee that you will get that benefit. It's sma...
by longinvest
Sat Jun 02, 2018 8:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Location Gets REALLY Complex [Tax-ajusted asset allocation]
Replies: 21
Views: 2141

Re: Asset Location Gets REALLY Complex

I think what is perhaps more relevant is how much you take out from what account and when. This has impact on your after-tax dollars which is of course what you have to live on Predicting the future size of one's IRA account to predict Required Minimum Distributions (RMD) amounts is difficult (mayb...
by longinvest
Sat Jun 02, 2018 8:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Location Gets REALLY Complex [Tax-ajusted asset allocation]
Replies: 21
Views: 2141

Re: Asset Location Gets REALLY Complex

To a significant extent I have given portfolio efficiency priority over cost minimization, and those costs include advisor fees, expense ratios, and taxes. I've also decided to put the priority on cost minimization; the Cost Matters Hypothesis (CMH) of our mentor John Bogle. It's Taylor's arguments...
by longinvest
Sat Jun 02, 2018 6:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Location Gets REALLY Complex [Tax-ajusted asset allocation]
Replies: 21
Views: 2141

Asset Location Gets REALLY Complex [Tax-ajusted asset allocation]

A few investors tax-adjust their asset allocation when optimizing the location of their assets. Our wiki has two related articles: wiki: Tax-adjusted asset allocation and wiki: Tax-efficient fund placement . Here's a link to a recent blog entry authored by a Canadian blogger that sheds an interestin...