Search found 693 matches

by schwarm
Mon Apr 11, 2016 9:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question about an individual stock
Replies: 8
Views: 823

Re: Question about an individual stock

Thanks Taylor.

My first thought is to go ahead and sell even if I have to bite the bullet and pay capital gains taxes.
The responses here seem to confirm my inclination.
by schwarm
Sun Apr 10, 2016 10:52 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question about an individual stock
Replies: 8
Views: 823

Re: Question about an individual stock

Thanks for the replies everyone. I bit more information: the company is publicly traded, and right now is about 5% of our total liquid funds, so I am not too concerned about lack of diversification. We will realize capital gains, but I will offset that at least somewhat by maxing out 401k contributi...
by schwarm
Sun Apr 10, 2016 8:49 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question about an individual stock
Replies: 8
Views: 823

Question about an individual stock

First off, my wife and I have most of our portfolio in diversified, low cost index (or nearly index) funds. I realize this forum is not about individual stock picking, but a quick search of the internet didn't really help me so it thought I would ask here. Years ago she bought some company stock ove...
by schwarm
Sun Oct 11, 2015 8:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Low Interest Rates the New Normal?
Replies: 29
Views: 4492

Re: Are Low Interest Rates the New Normal?

I wonder if lower interest rates also depend on capital to output. As capital stock has increased, cost has gone down.
by schwarm
Fri Jul 11, 2014 8:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What ONE investing book or article for skeptical sibling?
Replies: 30
Views: 3605

Re: What ONE investing book or article for skeptical sibling

The one book I had my wife read to get a general idea of the how and why of my management of our portfolio was Random Walk Guide to Investing by Malkiel. It's fairly short, easy to read, and has a lot of the key basic concepts of passive investing.
by schwarm
Tue Jun 24, 2014 6:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cost of car compared to Gross Income
Replies: 138
Views: 14092

Re: Cost of car compared to Gross Income

Going from car lease to car lease is the modern equivalent of indentured servitude If you have mortgage debt when you are over 55, car debt when you are over 45 or credit card debt when you are over 35, you are a financial failure.....Gordon No credit card debt over 35, agree. Car debt over 45 - wh...
by schwarm
Tue Jun 24, 2014 5:49 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cost of car compared to Gross Income
Replies: 138
Views: 14092

Re: Cost of car compared to Gross Income

I feel like a lot of people here are living in a bit of a dreamland based on some of the comments above.. $30k for the average car? That might be true in some places in the US, but definitely not typical. I guess it depends on how you take that statistic though. Report: Average price of new car hit...
by schwarm
Sat Jun 21, 2014 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% inflation-adjusted withdrawal over various periods
Replies: 11
Views: 1233

Re: 4% inflation-adjusted withdrawal over various periods

His "Harry Browne" portfolio includes a 25% precious metals stock fund, which is very different than 25% in actual precious metals, which is what I think most PP adherents would hold.
To me this is a winner chosen after the fact.
by schwarm
Fri Jun 20, 2014 10:47 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cost of car compared to Gross Income
Replies: 138
Views: 14092

Re: Cost of car compared to Gross Income

I feel like a lot of people here are living in a bit of a dreamland based on some of the comments above.. $30k for the average car? That might be true in some places in the US, but definitely not typical. I guess it depends on how you take that statistic though. Report: Average price of new car hit...
by schwarm
Tue Nov 05, 2013 4:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Obamacare, increased health costs, disappearing 401k?
Replies: 41
Views: 4869

Re: Obamacare, increased health costs, disappearing 401k?

Garco wrote:No cost changes for me, since my company covers it all via Blue Cross.


No changes where I work, other than a surcharge for smokers. I believe we are self insured with BC/BS administering the program.
by schwarm
Sat Aug 03, 2013 2:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New Honda Accord v/s CPO BMW 328i
Replies: 88
Views: 20205

Re: New Honda Accord v/s CPO BMW 328i

If you are looking at the Accord, you might want to wait until 2014 as 2013 was the first year of the redesign.
Also, this generation has a CVT transmission for the 4 cylinder automatics, and supposedly gets better mileage than earlier 4 cylinder Accords.
by schwarm
Wed Jul 03, 2013 7:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do you wish you had learned sooner?
Replies: 104
Views: 16700

Re: What do you wish you had learned sooner?

Fallible wrote:
shmidds wrote:Patience

:thumbsup

I agree with this also. Perspective also helps.
These are things that are often in short supply with the young in inexperienced.
by schwarm
Wed Jul 03, 2013 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (June 2013)
Replies: 9
Views: 1710

Re: madsinger monthly report (June 2013)

Bottom line, US stocks have done very well the first half of the year, and not much else.

If you have a portfolio that is 30/30/20/20 US/Int/IT/TIPS, you probably saw less than 2% for the first half of '13.
Most of the portfolios above are lean on Int stock and TIPS.
by schwarm
Mon Jun 10, 2013 10:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Lets get rid of car dealerships
Replies: 58
Views: 5960

Re: Lets get rid of car dealerships

Forget car dealerships. Let's get away with real estate agents. That's a far more egregious situation of not getting value for the money spent imo! Agreed. The internet has taken a lot of the hassle out of buying a new car. Dealers have to compete with each other and give their best price. Not ever...
by schwarm
Mon Jun 10, 2013 9:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trying to Advise Friends and Family About Investing
Replies: 26
Views: 3368

Re: Trying to Advise Friends and Family About Investing

I think many people have trouble believing in how easy it is and the "if it sounds too good to be true" alarms start ringing. They assume that we must be missing some piece of the puzzle. The passive strategy is fairly simple to execute (or very simple if you buy a TR fund), but the think...
by schwarm
Wed May 29, 2013 7:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Ownership Hits Record Low.. (link)
Replies: 30
Views: 3816

Re: Stock Ownership Hits Record Low.. (link)

Sidney wrote:I suspect that some people got out because they had to.


Yeah, if you don't have at least an emergency fund's worth of liquid assets, the point is moot.
I wonder how much the percentage owning stocks has changed for those who have the assets to do so.
by schwarm
Wed Mar 06, 2013 9:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Debunking the Myth of the 8% Return"
Replies: 61
Views: 5977

Re: "Debunking the Myth of the 8% Return"

So if the average investor is hit with the likely-hood of a diversified portfolio returning 2-3% real, do they: 1) lower their expectations of wealth accumulation and change nothing else, 2) save more, 3) take more risk, or 4) give up on investing and consume more now? I'm guessing very few would ch...
by schwarm
Wed Mar 06, 2013 8:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Capital Gains Tax?
Replies: 2
Views: 460

Re: Capital Gains Tax?

Also depends on whether you have enough deductions to itemize.
by schwarm
Sun Mar 03, 2013 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 50 Unfortunate Truths About Investing
Replies: 27
Views: 5004

Re: 50 Unfortunate Truths About Investing

50 Unfortunate truths, Motley Fool - Business Insider I think I've heard these before somewhere.... Oh, yeah, here. http://www.businessinsider.com/50-unfortunate-truths-about-investing-2012-11 Thanks, Paul. 17. Most of what is taught about investing in school is theoretical nonsense. There are very...
by schwarm
Wed Feb 13, 2013 7:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Tale of Two countries, Greece and Japan
Replies: 19
Views: 1678

Re: A Tale of Two countries, Greece and Japan

One difference between the US and Greece that is bigger than any difference between the US and Japan is that we control or own currency, Greece does not.
by schwarm
Fri Feb 01, 2013 8:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond fund tanks
Replies: 63
Views: 10113

Re: Total Bond fund tanks

If interest rate rose 5% quickly I think the panic/fear factors would probably affect behavior more than just the bond fund duration. The stock market would probably take a big hit and fear/panic may drive people into bonds/bond funds -- most likely Treasuries. But some might go into Total bond - t...
by schwarm
Wed Oct 17, 2012 6:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harry Browne’s Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 130
Views: 18704

Re: Harry Browne’s Permanent Portfolio

deci02 wrote:Bill Bernstein's take.

http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/0adhoc/harry.htm



He also wrote the most popular review of the book on Amazon.com

http://www.amazon.com/The-Permanent-Por ... 1118288254

edit - doh! Bernstein already posted this ITT.
by schwarm
Wed Mar 21, 2012 7:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett gains ground in hedge fund bet
Replies: 26
Views: 3593

Re: Buffett gains ground in hedge fund bet

Thanks for the update.
by schwarm
Sun Feb 12, 2012 9:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Grouping Americans by saving/investing habits
Replies: 51
Views: 3409

Re: Grouping Americans by saving/investing habits

Pennstateclj1 wrote:
grap0013 wrote: I think Bogleheads(or people who believe in or apply similar principles) are <1% of the general population.


New group idea- "We are the <1%!" T-shirt order forms forthcoming.


A suggestion: don't wear it near an occupy protest.
by schwarm
Sun Feb 12, 2012 9:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Grouping Americans by saving/investing habits
Replies: 51
Views: 3409

Re: Grouping Americans by saving/investing habits

I'm guessing the number of Bogleheads is far less than 5%, but there is some fraction of people who could be "converted" - people who have some decent fraction of net worth in a 401K and/or IRA, have read some basics on asset allocation, but don't understand the loser's game of active inve...
by schwarm
Sun Jan 29, 2012 2:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 401(k) contributions for 2012
Replies: 11
Views: 1255

Re: 401(k) contributions for 2012

Deductible + Roth contributions must be less than $17,000 If by deductible you mean 401(k) contributions, I don't think this is true. So you could put $17K in a 401(k) and $5k in a Roth in 2012. Roth 401(k), not Roth IRA. The limit for employee elective deferrals and employee designated Roth contri...
by schwarm
Sun Jan 29, 2012 10:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 401(k) contributions for 2012
Replies: 11
Views: 1255

Re: 401(k) contributions for 2012

Deductible + Roth contributions must be less than $17,000 If by deductible you mean 401(k) contributions, I don't think this is true. Having an employer based retirement plan can affect deductability of traditional IRA contributions (depending on MAGI), but I don't think it has any effect on Roth c...
by schwarm
Sun Jan 22, 2012 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should You Calculate Your Rate of Return!? NO!
Replies: 95
Views: 7074

Re: Should You Calculate Your Rate of Return!? NO!

So what if you hire someone to manage your portfolio? Should you expect them to periodically review the rate of return?
by schwarm
Thu Jan 19, 2012 6:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation
Replies: 26
Views: 1744

Re: Inflation

One advantage to moderate inflation is that you can adjust relative compensation over time without as much blowback. While getting a small or no raise with moderate inflation is disappointing, getting a pay cut in any circumstances is demoralizing. With inflation, over time you can effectively cut p...
by schwarm
Tue Jan 17, 2012 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: my list of "sure things' to follow for 2012
Replies: 21
Views: 2415

Re: my list of "sure things' to follow for 2012

Inflation was predicted to be high, but overall was moderate (3-4%) mostly driven by increasing energy costs.
JMO, but increased oil costs were mostly due to world supply/demand and not due to US gov't activities.
by schwarm
Sat Jan 14, 2012 8:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will There Ever Be Another 1990s?
Replies: 32
Views: 2694

Re: Will There Ever Be Another 1990s?

If "reversion to the mean" applies to long term stock market returns, there's a strong probability that future decades will be much more favorable than the previous decade — though perhaps not as good as the 1990's. For an historical perspective on just how wretched the last decade has be...
by schwarm
Sat Jan 14, 2012 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will There Ever Be Another 1990s?
Replies: 32
Views: 2694

Re: Will There Ever Be Another 1990s?

and then the 30's and 40's followed the 20's....

Don't most who follow these things think we are in a secular bear market, not likely to end for a while?

But who knows - I invest conservatively enough that I don't need another 90's to sleep well at night.
by schwarm
Tue Jan 10, 2012 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting probability problem
Replies: 325
Views: 13502

Re: Interesting probability problem

Yes, I'm thinking Schwarm should probably get the Platinum Medal for most elegant exposition... Grrr. I'm getting a bit annoyed now. http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=88536&p=1272362#p1272362 or the earlier hint http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=885...
by schwarm
Tue Jan 10, 2012 6:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting probability problem
Replies: 325
Views: 13502

Re: Interesting probability problem

... You have to think about not only how many aces there are in a deck, but the different ways that you can hold those aces and combinations of them in your hand. No suit information 1: You can hold one ace in 4 different ways (S,D,H,C) 2: You can hold two aces in 6 different ways. (SD,SH,SC,DH,DC,...
by schwarm
Tue Jan 10, 2012 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting probability problem
Replies: 325
Views: 13502

Re: Interesting probability problem

... You have to think about not only how many aces there are in a deck, but the different ways that you can hold those aces and combinations of them in your hand. No suit information 1: You can hold one ace in 4 different ways (S,D,H,C) 2: You can hold two aces in 6 different ways. (SD,SH,SC,DH,DC,...
by schwarm
Mon Jan 09, 2012 6:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting probability problem
Replies: 325
Views: 13502

Re: Interesting probability problem

and, from another discussion on the web: Here's a simplified version of the problem. Say there are three cards left in the deck: the ace of hearts, the ace of spades, and the two of diamonds. Your opponent is holding two of them. There are three possible hands, one of which is two aces, so the chan...
by schwarm
Mon Jan 09, 2012 5:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting probability problem
Replies: 325
Views: 13502

Re: Interesting probability problem

The way the question is worded is a bit ambiguous - are A and B the probability of having exactly one more ace or at least one more ace?
by schwarm
Mon Jan 09, 2012 4:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Everyone beats the market - just ask them!
Replies: 20
Views: 2439

Re: Everyone beats the market - just ask them!

The title to this post reminds me of the time when I heard one of the hourly employees where I work talking to his manager. The manager was bragging about his latest success at the local casino. The hourly employee replied (I'm paraphrasing) "You know, I'm the only person I know who goes to the...
by schwarm
Mon Jan 09, 2012 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Performance: 3 fund portfolio vs. slice and dice
Replies: 3
Views: 947

Re: Performance: 3 fund portfolio vs. slice and dice

-It looks like the simple portfolio with int treasuries did the best, but the simple portfolio with BND did not beat slice and dice. -Did you rebalance, and if so how? - I can't look it up right now, but is the duration on IEF more than VG's int treasury fund? The recent returns seem to indicate this.
by schwarm
Sun Jan 01, 2012 6:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2011 Returns Thread
Replies: 137
Views: 12751

Re: 2011 Returns Thread

-1.0% for "retirement" funds. About 60/40 stocks/bonds with about 50% stocks in international funds.
2.1% overall return with most non-retirement assets in bond funds.
by schwarm
Sat Dec 24, 2011 6:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: KISS - of death?
Replies: 18
Views: 2663

Re: KISS - of death?

With regard to tracking error, I think this year will test those (like me) who have a substantial portion of equity investments in international funds. I suspect that I will under-perform compared to most 60/40 portfolios because I have about half of my equity investments in international funds. The...
by schwarm
Sat Aug 27, 2011 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Minimizing fat tail risk w/ lower equity allocation - myth?
Replies: 110
Views: 14592

Re: ddb

I must admit, I'm thoroughly taken aback by this rebalancing idea of yours. Definitely never heard of such a thing. - DDB I read a personal finance book recently - "Your Money Ratios" by Charles Ferrell who advocates a similar investment strategy. I believe he recommended 50% investment i...
by schwarm
Wed Aug 24, 2011 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: larry swedroe article: statistical signficance of results?
Replies: 54
Views: 7473

Re: larry swedroe article: statistical signficance of result

DonSmith wrote:Investing doesn't require a 95% confidence interval. Say the chance of Portfolio 6 beating Portfolio 1 is 67%. Which would you invest in?


I would also want to know the chance of each of these portfolios to reach my goals before making the decision.
by schwarm
Sun Aug 21, 2011 5:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Arguing with a Grantham Disciple
Replies: 12
Views: 1737

From the graph above, its looks like his out-performance was largely due to being over-weighted in EM in the middle of the last decade.

The disclaimer reads: "Hypothetical performance is developed with the benefit of hindsight...." :roll:
by schwarm
Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ormand vs Index Funds
Replies: 26
Views: 3567

Sad thing is her show has millions of viewers and Bogleheads have, I just now counted, currently 17 viewing. Do guests show up? If not maybe there are a couple more. JW I sometimes watch it with my wife... she sometimes covers topics that are relevant to us and it provides us an opportunity to disc...
by schwarm
Sun Aug 14, 2011 5:49 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Grandson of BCS
Replies: 487
Views: 39491

This just in: Texas A&M is not being invited to join the SEC at the present time. m I think technically, A&M has to apply for admission first, they do not officially get invited. U Texas is already threatening lawsuits against the SEC, so they (the SEC) doesn't want to look like the initiat...
by schwarm
Sun Aug 14, 2011 5:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Grandson of BCS
Replies: 487
Views: 39491

I can't see Florida wanting to let FSU into the SEC. I think Florida doesn't want the Seminole program to have the extra money SEC membership would bring, so I think FSU is a long shot, as are Ga. Tech and Clemson for the same reason. Georgia wants to keep Ga. Tech poor and S. Carolina would like t...
by schwarm
Sun Aug 14, 2011 3:36 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Grandson of BCS
Replies: 487
Views: 39491

I can't see FSU wanting to jump ship. They have a pretty good thing going on in the ACC. They're in the easier of the two divisions so their chances of going undefeated every year are much higher than if they joined the SEC. Same with Clemson, really. I could see West Virginia and Mizzou before any...
by schwarm
Sun Aug 14, 2011 11:52 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Grandson of BCS
Replies: 487
Views: 39491

Gatorman, Are you hearing the same rumors about the SEC adding a couple teams ? I've read perhaps Clemson and ( the hated ) FSU in the east with Texas A & M added to the west for a total of 14 teams. The rumor about A & M seems most legit. A&M was considering the SEC last year when UT w...