Search found 929 matches

by Boglegrappler
Fri Dec 15, 2017 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The 9.1 billion shares mystery of Googles IPO
Replies: 10
Views: 1780

Re: The 9.1 billion shares mystery of Googles IPO

Use the 424b prospectus that has the final numbers. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1288776/000119312504143377/d424b4.htm Authorized shares are simply authorized. Market capitalizations are calculated using shares issued and outstanding. Any analysis of the Google IPO needs to be informed by...
by Boglegrappler
Thu Dec 14, 2017 8:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Moods of the U.S. Stock Market, 1990-2017
Replies: 30
Views: 2098

Re: Moods of the U.S. Stock Market, 1990-2017

The problem with that narrative is that multiple expansion can indeed happen from "mood swing" enthusiasm that overestimates the future growth rate, only to be brought back to earth. But....the exact same multiple also expands if the overall rate of return declines (as evidenced by current interest ...
by Boglegrappler
Thu Dec 14, 2017 2:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Hire CPA or file my own taxes?
Replies: 12
Views: 970

Re: Hire CPA or file my own taxes?

I've always done my own taxes. It seems to me that the biggest pain in the butt of doing them is assembling the information, which you have to do anyway even if you use a CPA or outside preparer. There have been times when I've made errors and cost myself in penalties (once...simply missed a 1099 in...
by Boglegrappler
Thu Dec 07, 2017 10:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle Is Worried About U.S. Pensions
Replies: 85
Views: 8296

Re: Jack Bogle Is Worried About U.S. Pensions

I'm not saying he's wrong. I'm saying that there is a cost to being too conservative, although it isn't generally as big a cost as being too liberal with one's assumptions.
That last sentence qualifies as gospel. :)
by Boglegrappler
Thu Dec 07, 2017 8:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle Is Worried About U.S. Pensions
Replies: 85
Views: 8296

Re: Jack Bogle Is Worried About U.S. Pensions

Bogle is making a very important point. In calculating pension obligations, and funding percentages, an assumption (forecast) is made of the rate of return on the existing investment portfolio that is a large part of determining whether the pension is currently over or (usually) underfunded, and to ...
by Boglegrappler
Thu Dec 07, 2017 2:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What do Bogleheads say when they don't want to spend money?
Replies: 103
Views: 5503

Re: What do Bogleheads say when they don't want to spend money?

You just say that it doesn't have enough value to you to justify the purchase. That's the truth. We can afford plenty of things that we choose not to buy. I'll make a side comment and say that as I've aged, I see frugality as potentially part of a controlling personality syndrome. Sometimes the frug...
by Boglegrappler
Tue Dec 05, 2017 2:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I sell some of my Berkshire stock
Replies: 31
Views: 2809

Re: Should I sell some of my Berkshire stock

I'm assuming that that graph is only applicable if both investments are held in a non-taxable account. Right?

In a taxable account the index fund dividends would require tax payments to be made, which would lower the rate of return shown.
by Boglegrappler
Wed Nov 29, 2017 7:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: quiet natural gas generators
Replies: 38
Views: 2167

Re: quiet natural gas generators

The 20-40kw generators running on propane or natural gas will make noise at about the level of a pickup truck idling. Its not that quiet if you're 15 feet away with the windows open, but if you're in a neighborhood where house spacing is is decently far, it won't be something that bothers your neigh...
by Boglegrappler
Sun Nov 19, 2017 10:28 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The valet smashed my Tesla into a brick wall!
Replies: 108
Views: 12995

Re: The valet smashed my Tesla into a brick wall!

Things are in the saddle,
And ride mankind.

- Emerson
I'm thankful to have been born some place where we have things to worry about being in the saddle. :)
by Boglegrappler
Fri Nov 17, 2017 10:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Goldman Sachs mulls the death of the value factor
Replies: 18
Views: 2144

Re: Goldman Sachs mulls the death of the value factor

And that is exactly what happened. Actually the market took off when the Fed decided that the cure was worse than the disease, and dropped rates several times in August 1982. It unleashed a housing inflation and other price increases that were truly impressive. It took imo, another 25 years or more...
by Boglegrappler
Mon Nov 13, 2017 11:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Long term capital gains tax - effective tax is higher than 15%
Replies: 15
Views: 1169

Re: Long term capital gains tax - effective tax is higher than 15%

Not sure why it wouldn't be accurate for your tax bracket, but the top gains rate for upper income tax payers is 20%, with the possibility of paying an additional 3.8% on net investment income, which comes out suspiciously close to your 24% rate on your calculator.
by Boglegrappler
Mon Nov 13, 2017 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GE and the myth of "safe blue-chip stocks"
Replies: 73
Views: 7727

Re: GE and the myth of "safe blue-chip stocks"

I own some GE, and they've announced that they're going to drop the dividend in half. It's not a big deal since its a small part of my portfolio. Plus you could see that possibility coming since the market was pricing the stock so that the previous dividend was creating a high 4% ish yield. In this ...
by Boglegrappler
Fri Nov 10, 2017 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to invest my settlement
Replies: 16
Views: 1678

Re: How to invest my settlement

I know several people who either got large settlements or won large judgements. Except for one guy, every one of them managed to spend all of the money within five years. Most with a year. This is regrettably typical. The amount you're talking about, while impressive in one sense, isn't all that mu...
by Boglegrappler
Fri Nov 10, 2017 1:29 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Home backup generator experiences
Replies: 51
Views: 2855

Re: Home backup generator experiences

A 20KW propane generator runs at 3.44 gallons per hour at full load and at a bit over 2 gph at less than half load.
The load on the generator makes quite a difference. Most of the time, I'm guessing that the loads on these aren't even near half, as long as its not July and 90 degrees.
by Boglegrappler
Fri Nov 10, 2017 12:28 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Home backup generator experiences
Replies: 51
Views: 2855

Re: Home backup generator experiences

We have a 400 gallon tank. My days of running capacity number are computed using empirical data from the long outage we had. A 300 gallon full tank of propane and a 20k generator will run for quite a long time. Just as a note, although there is no way to disguise the fact that you have a generator, ...
by Boglegrappler
Thu Nov 09, 2017 3:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Home backup generator experiences
Replies: 51
Views: 2855

Re: Home backup generator experiences

I've had two large generators...a Cummins Onan 30kw and a Kohler 37kw. Both propane. Each had its tweaks to being with. The Cummins had the control board fry because of a surge from a lightning strike in the area (not direct), but was ok after that. The Kohler kept throwing a low coolant fault that ...
by Boglegrappler
Thu Nov 09, 2017 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has “Dividend Yield” Become Globally Obsolete?
Replies: 35
Views: 2277

Re: Has “Dividend Yield” Become Globally Obsolete?

Share buybacks should only occur when COMPETENT boards/management deem their shares are trading below well below "intrinsic value", as per Warren Buffett (and every sane person on the planet!). Very important. Some of the ideas noted here should be tempered by noting that they actually could be neg...
by Boglegrappler
Wed Nov 08, 2017 3:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What's the most "interesting" job in corporate finance?
Replies: 20
Views: 2001

Re: What's the most "interesting" job in corporate finance?

Last point, the importance of high moral character cannot be overstated. This is another area where some ambitious people fall short. Buffett has noted that the most important traits employees can have are intelligence, energy, and high moral character. But he notes that high moral character is the...
by Boglegrappler
Sun Nov 05, 2017 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment Books & Your Library
Replies: 36
Views: 2665

Re: Investment Books & Your Library

The anthologies by Charles Ellis of Greenwich Associates titled Classics, and Classics II are collections of articles about investing and investing history. Even if you are a bogle head and think you don't need to understand a lot more than that, thoughtful readers will find the articles interesting.
by Boglegrappler
Tue Oct 24, 2017 12:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Attempted theft of bank funds via identity theft
Replies: 19
Views: 2635

Re: Attempted theft of bank funds via identity theft

If they went to the trouble to do this, why would they allow the Barclays bank to have the actual real address? That turned out to be flaw #1 in the plan.

There must be a reason they couldn't get around that.
by Boglegrappler
Mon Oct 23, 2017 5:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Honda Accord LX with no transmissin dipstick
Replies: 31
Views: 2565

Re: Honda Accord LX with no transmissin dipstick

Welcome to the 21st century.

I learned about this some years ago when I was trying to instruct my kids on how to check the oil and transmission fluid. No transmission dipstick. I think that was on an 07 model, and it might have started before that.
by Boglegrappler
Mon Oct 23, 2017 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Why Do Hedge Funds Exist?
Replies: 10
Views: 1374

Re: Larry Swedroe: Why Do Hedge Funds Exist?

Hedge funds exist because they offer the hope of beating the market. Some have done it. Of course, if no one hoped to beat the market, it wouldn't matter. But the world is full of investors who seriously desire to beat the market. Among them are many of the largest, ostensibly smartest, investing in...
by Boglegrappler
Sat Oct 21, 2017 6:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do I need bonds? (I'm 30)
Replies: 70
Views: 6773

Re: Why do I need bonds? (I'm 30)

I think most of the advice is pretty good. The real issue, to me, is whether you can stay the course when faced with a sharp downturn. The past years since early 2009 truly do not give you the correct feel for the reality of a crash and crisis. Plus, not every recession has a crash that bounces with...
by Boglegrappler
Thu Oct 19, 2017 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett Books
Replies: 22
Views: 2231

Re: Warren Buffett Books

I'd recommend to people just to read all of his letters, which are available online in simple format from 1977 on. You'll learn more from them than from reading what writers think about him, although it will be a bit less entertaining. Getting to the nub of his approach takes some repetition (in ter...
by Boglegrappler
Wed Oct 18, 2017 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: If someone held a gun to your head, and force u to gamble whether the S&P 500 will rise or fall tomorrow, what do u say?
Replies: 45
Views: 2522

Re: If someone held a gun to your head, and force u to gamble whether the S&P 500 will rise or fall tomorrow, what do u

It's worth repeating something a smart guy once said to me years ago: If it weren't for some short-term, and intermediate term fluctuations, every day would be a new record for the indexes.

If you absolutely had to make a wager on tomorrow, you bet on an increase.
by Boglegrappler
Tue Oct 17, 2017 6:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social Security Death Benefits
Replies: 5
Views: 821

Re: Social Security Death Benefits

You may be correct about that. It seems that the file and suspend strategy of triggering minor child benefits may have been eliminated in the 2015 changes, although I'm not sure. Its such a rare situation that not much is written about it. It is possible to start your own benefits and to trigger min...
by Boglegrappler
Mon Oct 16, 2017 9:29 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: UTMA accounts
Replies: 17
Views: 685

Re: UTMA accounts

I'm not sure of the benefit of the UTMA UGMA accounts for most people. It seems to me that the biggest advantage is if you were expecting to be subject to estate taxes, you can get 14k (28k for a married couple) to each of your children annually and it will be out of your estate if you happen to die...
by Boglegrappler
Mon Oct 16, 2017 7:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social Security Death Benefits
Replies: 5
Views: 821

Re: Social Security Death Benefits

Although this might not be the best thread for noting this point, parents who are at the social security eligible age and who still have children under age 18 can file and suspend (I believe) and have the children collect benefits as a minor child until the child turns 18. This is not a very prevale...
by Boglegrappler
Sun Oct 15, 2017 9:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [Social Security announces 2.0% benefit increase for 2018]
Replies: 26
Views: 3503

Re: [Social Security announces 2.0% benefit increase for 2018]

Just as an aside Medicare Premiums are also taxable for those with enough MAGI to make them so. (I send 25% of my GROSS SS Benefits back to the government each year). I'm not understanding this comment. Medicare premiums are something you pay. They're not income to you. They are not "taxable". Howe...
by Boglegrappler
Sun Oct 15, 2017 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Little as possible for govt
Replies: 9
Views: 1429

Re: Little as possible for govt

If I understand your situation correctly, it seems that you would be able to roll a lump sum distribution into an IRA account, either directly from trustee to trustee, or within 60 days if distributed to you. See the Tax Issues section of this page. https://www.nceo.org/articles/esop-participant-dis...
by Boglegrappler
Sun Oct 15, 2017 8:07 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Negotiating for a new car purchase
Replies: 86
Views: 7046

Re: Negotiating for a new car purchase

I've had success doing the following. 1. Use autotrader and Cars.com to see how prevalent the car you want is in dealer inventories in your region. You will also be able to learn how many dealers will discount from the sticker, and to what degree. I find this very useful to get an idea of what kind ...
by Boglegrappler
Sat Oct 14, 2017 11:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [Social Security announces 2.0% benefit increase for 2018]
Replies: 26
Views: 3503

Re: [Social Security announces 2.0% benefit increase for 2018]

Apparently 95% of SS/Medicare recipients are in the base Hold Harmless tier. So if healthcare costs related to Medicare increased more than 2% last year, the entire amount above the SS increase gets apportioned across the 5% in higher Medicare tiers. Last year that was going to happen and it got "f...
by Boglegrappler
Fri Oct 13, 2017 9:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Voluntary Corporate Action Tendered Offer Wal-Mart questions
Replies: 8
Views: 676

Re: Voluntary Corporate Action Tendered Offer Wal-Mart questions

I've only looked at it quickly, but I think you may not be reading the offer correctly. Its offering a price calculated to bring a yield to maturity of of 50 basis points over a "reference" US treasury bill, which matures 12 years after your bond (a generous reference benchmark). That price plus the...
by Boglegrappler
Thu Oct 12, 2017 1:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is the process for liquidating inherited individual stocks?
Replies: 17
Views: 1264

Re: What is the process for liquidating inherited individual stocks?

We are aware of the WF fraud schemes. We have no idea yet whether our relative had any phantom accounts fraudulently created in his name to get more commissions for WF sales agents. It doesn’t seem like we could trust WF to research this. Has anyone with WF encountered any problems with their broke...
by Boglegrappler
Mon Oct 09, 2017 2:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends growing at higher rates than inflation?
Replies: 9
Views: 850

Re: Dividends growing at higher rates than inflation?

Some of my dividends have been growing pretty well over the past seven or eight years. One of the things to be aware of is that dividends cannot grow faster than earnings grow, in the long run. Take a look at your companies and see if they are paying out a higher and higher share of earnings per sha...
by Boglegrappler
Fri Oct 06, 2017 8:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Sell or keep shares of a private company?
Replies: 39
Views: 2416

Re: Sell or keep shares of a private company?

If you can't stand the idea of passing up the cash, I'd urge you to sell only half of your stake. My guess is that your buyer would balk at that. But the fact that you have an offer has "informational content". Someone with investment expertise believes your shares are worth at least what they've of...
by Boglegrappler
Thu Sep 28, 2017 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Share buybacks vs Dividends
Replies: 102
Views: 5133

Re: Share buybacks vs Dividends

For those interested in a fairly simply, common sense discussion of these issues, see Buffett's letter from 2012, pages 19-21. Its a pretty good summary of the considerations around decisions to pay dividends, or buyback shares, or neither. http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2012ltr.pdf Among ...
by Boglegrappler
Mon Sep 25, 2017 6:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What's the purpose of having a child's name on a deed?
Replies: 43
Views: 3704

Re: What's the purpose of having a child's name on a deed?

PA has an inheritance tax that amounts to 4.5% on transfers to direct descendants. The rate for transfers to siblings is much higher. If the property is jointly owned, and has been jointly owned for the year before (to prevent transfers just prior to deaths), then the co-owned portion is not subject...
by Boglegrappler
Thu Sep 21, 2017 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Warren Buffett and Bond Funds
Replies: 33
Views: 3189

Re: Warren Buffett and Bond Funds

You're missing what you may come to understand if you read pages 17-19 of Buffett's letter to shareholders in 2011. He sees the long term returns on fixed income as likely being negative to zero, as a summation.

http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2011ltr.pdf
by Boglegrappler
Thu Sep 21, 2017 9:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I won the Lottery. Need sound advice.
Replies: 220
Views: 25414

Re: I won the Lottery. Need sound advice.

And let me throw some water on your post. You don't have that much money. I'll reiterate this, (not having read the intervening posts). If you put the whole amount in an SP500 index fund, it will produce a dividend yield of about 1.9% pretax. That's 22,800 annually, before taxes. Its the equivalent...
by Boglegrappler
Thu Sep 21, 2017 8:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any "average Joe" here actually make out well with individual stocks?
Replies: 108
Views: 13182

Re: Any "average Joe" here actually make out well with individual stocks?

t wouldn't be surprising to find folks who've done well the last few years through stock-picking. Anyone who's bought into the "growth" stories - companies like Amazon, Netflix, Tesla - would have had many chances to outperform the U.S. stock index. Everyone's a stock-picking genius when the broad ...
by Boglegrappler
Wed Sep 20, 2017 10:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any "average Joe" here actually make out well with individual stocks?
Replies: 108
Views: 13182

Re: Any "average Joe" here actually make out well with individual stocks?

We’ve done fairly well with individual stocks, but we own well over 30. Plus we aren’t average joes in terms of experience, having worked in the financial businesss for a long time, and seen a lot. We’re a bit ahead of the sp500 over last ten years, but it varies a /bit depending on what quarter yo ...
by Boglegrappler
Sun Sep 17, 2017 3:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What am I missing, Bogle/Buffet investment philosophy
Replies: 19
Views: 2095

Re: What am I missing, Bogle/Buffet investment philosophy

Not sure where this philosophy is codified, but Buffett has warned adamantly against long-term investors having too much invested in fixed income. See pages 17-19 below. Note that he uses "currency based investments" as his term for the broad category to include fixed income. http://www.berkshirehat...
by Boglegrappler
Wed Aug 30, 2017 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Relative angry I will not co-sign
Replies: 90
Views: 8709

Re: Relative angry I will not co-sign

Banks and other credit extenders make plenty of loans today to people who ought not be loaned money in the first place. Requiring a co-signer is a sign that this person shouldn't be receiving additional credit. The post above that notes that the relationship will be damaged whether or not you make t...
by Boglegrappler
Fri Aug 18, 2017 1:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Powerball - $510 million?
Replies: 64
Views: 5059

Re: Powerball - $510 million?

You always should take the lump sum. I don't believe lottery annuities are full faith and credit of the states and even if they were, its better not to depend on entities where they could decide to, or have to, default. Buying tickets makes decent sense to me, in moderation. I had a finance prof who...
by Boglegrappler
Mon Aug 07, 2017 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Seems like both Stocks and bonds have equal risk now...
Replies: 26
Views: 3433

Re: Seems like both Stocks and bonds have equal risk now...

For younger investors, and older ones who have more than a 10 year horizon, read pages 17-19 of
http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/2011ar/2011ar.pdf

Risk has more than one definition.
by Boglegrappler
Mon Jul 17, 2017 9:45 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Personal Finance Milestone: 20 Times Annual Expense
Replies: 95
Views: 9846

Re: Personal Finance Milestone: 20 Times Annual Expense

Boglegrappler, <<Being able to save half of your after-tax pay requires either stunning austerity, or a rather high income.>> Or, none of the above. I came from a country/culture where the average gross rate for the whole country is 30+%. It is how we live. It is part of our culture. And, that is n...
by Boglegrappler
Sun Jul 16, 2017 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Personal Finance Milestone: 20 Times Annual Expense
Replies: 95
Views: 9846

Re: Personal Finance Milestone: 20 Times Annual Expense

Not happy about uttering a discouraging word here, but........ Being able to save half of your after-tax pay requires either stunning austerity, or a rather high income. It does, however, put you in a position to be independent and also to live from your assets income rather than consuming it and wo...
by Boglegrappler
Thu Jul 13, 2017 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffet's Top 10 Letters?
Replies: 2
Views: 624

Re: Buffet's Top 10 Letters?

Read pages 17-19 of the 2011 letter. Read it repeatedly over time, and focus on the next to last paragraph if you want to get a veiled glimpse into what Buffett thinks might happen in the future. Keep in mind that he takes decades long views of things. The 2012 letter has a good discussion of divide...