Search found 63 matches

by m_j_paquette
Sat Dec 31, 2011 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2011 Returns Thread
Replies: 137
Views: 12748

Re: 2011 Returns Thread

My portfolio is 55% stocks (with modest SCV tilt), 45% bonds (split between TIPS and intermediate term). I'm in withdrawal phase, so there's that drain. IRR for the year is 0.60%, sixty whole basis points. The good news was that interest, dividends and distributions almost covered the withdrawals fo...
by m_j_paquette
Sun Oct 02, 2011 3:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Bank of America going to survive?
Replies: 159
Views: 34502

Perhaps, but they'll do it without me. I don't own the stock, and I'm in the process of terminating my fee paying, er, banking relationship with them. After last week's fee preannouncements, some of the regional banks have put banners on their front pages indicating that they won't charge fees for d...
by m_j_paquette
Wed Sep 28, 2011 1:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: No alarm by Bogleheads over Grecian debt crisis?
Replies: 62
Views: 6586

I'm alarmed that I might have to do tax loss harvesting, AND rebalance my portfolio, all in the same year. I'm just not used to that sort of intense activity.
by m_j_paquette
Wed Sep 21, 2011 7:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [short trading] IMF: World economy in 'dangerous new phase'
Replies: 7
Views: 1093

Re: "IMF: World economy enters 'dangerous new phase'&am

But my trading portfolio which I started just before 2000 with $25K has done great - $275K as of today. That's it? Child's play my man... Child's play. I'm up to $430K on a $10,000 investment made in 2000. When you're ready to step up to the Big Leagues , give me a call. Heh. AAPL has been very goo...
by m_j_paquette
Wed Sep 07, 2011 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Securities transaction fee
Replies: 6
Views: 1252

Section 31 Transaction Fee

That's the SEC Section 31 transaction fee. The SEC levies this on exchanges and major self-regulatory organizations (FINRA)

More here: http://www.sec.gov/answers/sec31.htm

It's part of the cost of a stock transaction, so yes, it goes in as part of the commission in Quicken.
by m_j_paquette
Mon Feb 14, 2011 5:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller P/E above 24
Replies: 190
Views: 26333

I checked to see if I should rebalance my portfolio. Nope, nothing outside the bands today. I can hardy wait til I check again next year.
by m_j_paquette
Thu Jun 24, 2010 1:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Vanguard ETF's
Replies: 62
Views: 10132

SSSS wrote:So there's going to be a:

Vanguard S&P Sm-Cap 600 Val ETF

But there's already a:

Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF

.... help? :?


Just think of it as a handy new feature for tax loss harvesting. Similar enough, but not 'substantially identical.' :idea:
by m_j_paquette
Mon May 17, 2010 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's fraud policy
Replies: 89
Views: 14290

This hacking technique won't work cos the financial institution would just invalidate the security code the moment you execute a login. The security code can be made to only be used once. While you are correct that the security code can only be used once, you might have misunderstood the attack mec...
by m_j_paquette
Thu Mar 04, 2010 7:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Got Employee Stock Options? Grok's rule for when to exercise
Replies: 78
Views: 12341

Re: There is no law that prohibits hedging

Perhaps there is no such law. But my employer prohibits any employee from using any hedging strategy that profits from a fall in the company's stock price. I doubt this is only for "some rare companies". Yup. This seemed pretty common in Silicon Valley. My last employer referred explicitl...
by m_j_paquette
Tue Mar 02, 2010 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wall street is set to take you for another 20%
Replies: 40
Views: 6138

Re: Wall street is set to take you for another 20%

I bet he turns out to be right. Article here I don't know about that. The article wraps up with a fairly bizarre conclusion in the last two paragraphs. In fact, it's highly doubtful that you, your portfolio, your family or your America will make it past 2012, let alone into that comfortable retirem...
by m_j_paquette
Tue Feb 02, 2010 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Farrell: 20 debt bombs that will sink your retirement
Replies: 30
Views: 6364

Re: Farrell: 20 debt bombs that will sink your retirement

Remove all sharp objects from your reach before reading this commentary. Heh. And that's before allowing for asteroid strikes, the Mayan apocalypse, Doomsday, and cats and dogs living together. What's really funny is that this is the same guy who tracks and regularly writes about the fairly Boglehe...
by m_j_paquette
Thu Jan 21, 2010 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Entire portfolio is taxable - How best to handle long-term?
Replies: 56
Views: 7417

Did your BAC stop-loss execute today as planned? Hi Avalpert, Yes it went through about an hour ago. I also made the decision to sell Ford at 11.20 shortly after the stop loss on Bank of America occurred. Deleted my middle and best case scenario's out of spreadsheet just now. My options investing b...
by m_j_paquette
Mon Jan 11, 2010 5:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Last close, VBR up 93.8%?
Replies: 17
Views: 2666

Back in the Bad Old Days when I played with individual stocks, I followed Apple Inc (AAPL) closely. This is a large cap, high volume stock. Now, it turns out that there is a defunct oil company called Appell Pete, with a ticker APPL. Some wise guy with shares of this company kept a limit sell order ...
by m_j_paquette
Thu Dec 17, 2009 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can you pick losing stocks?
Replies: 16
Views: 2156

Can I pick losing stocks? Oh, yeah! Boy, can I pick them!

The problem is that I take long positions when i pick them. Like the cat says, "You're doing it wrong!". :lol:

I'll just stick with the index funds, thanks.
by m_j_paquette
Wed Nov 25, 2009 6:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fox Business - Bogleheads Guide to Retirement Planning
Replies: 109
Views: 13432

Re: Indexing vs. active

I love the sales process, as an outside observer. "Of course I will not offer any guarantee whatever related to a risk asset, the two concepts mentioned together is just silly. Whomever posed the question is playing with you, don't fall for it. What is vital to determine first is whether you wi...
by m_j_paquette
Wed Nov 25, 2009 3:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fox Business - Bogleheads Guide to Retirement Planning
Replies: 109
Views: 13432

Re: American fund annual report

Here is a link to an American fund...pg 2 has the disclaimer followed by performance on pg 3 m Yup. That's what I thought. Fund results shown in this report, unless otherwise indicated, are for Class A shares at net asset value. If a sales charge (maximum 5.75%) had been deducted, the results would...
by m_j_paquette
Thu Nov 05, 2009 6:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robert Prechter and Elliott Wave Theory
Replies: 6
Views: 2006

He's highly entertaining, particularly for fans of the near-future megadisaster novel. Recent forecasts call for new lows that are half of the March 2009 lows, bond market collapse, a Grand Supercycle collapse (100 years of bear market?), cats and dogs living together... Somebody must have broken a ...
by m_j_paquette
Tue Oct 20, 2009 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: From Paul B. Farrell at Marketwatch
Replies: 24
Views: 4192

(It's baaack!) I'm not entirely sure this sort of gloom and doom is worth worrying about. The End of the Financial World has been forecast a few times before. Paul Ferrell himself has done this. 2008: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/story/print?guid=FE3C1E3B-3D53-49C0-9DF3-FD94B0E4B9B3 2004: http:/...
by m_j_paquette
Sat Sep 19, 2009 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Prepare for Retirement
Replies: 7
Views: 1691

"Health care costs in retirement, like health care costs generally, continue to explode. The numbers are daunting. In a June 2009 report, The Employee Benefit Research Institute in Washington estimated that a 65-year-old couple retiring in 2009 would need $268,000 to $414,000 in savings to pay...
by m_j_paquette
Sun Aug 23, 2009 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Decumulation Phase
Replies: 138
Views: 59465

Otar on rebalancing

Did anyone notice the section on rebalancing? I got a kick out of his spin on the perennial Boglehead discussion. He appears to favor rebalancing in distribution once every four years, at the end of election years! It works for me. I've always thought that an infrequent rebalance would be better tha...
by m_j_paquette
Sun Aug 23, 2009 3:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Decumulation Phase
Replies: 138
Views: 59465

One of the more interesting bits in the book are the Warning Signs, signs at the start and during distribution that the portfolio (and retiree!) are heading for trouble. It reminds me of one of the other strategies I've seen discussed, that suggests a portfolio, after experiencing a strong downdraft...
by m_j_paquette
Fri Aug 21, 2009 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NYT: Rise of the Super-Rich Hits a Sobering Wall
Replies: 29
Views: 4231

Re: NYT: Rise of the Super-Rich Hits a Sobering Wall

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/21/business/economy/21inequality.html John McAfee's worth has fallen to about $4 million from a peak of about $100 million. This clearly looks like a diversification failure. A lesson to behold for every investor. Expensive real estate development in remote, fly-in lo...
by m_j_paquette
Wed Aug 05, 2009 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Annuity vs regular taxable account
Replies: 3
Views: 1176

I went through this drill several years back. The annuity lets investments grow without taxes on the returns while sheltered in the annuity, but all gains are taxed as ordinary income when they come out. [1] The taxable account can produce dividends and capital gains. These are taxed as they occur, ...
by m_j_paquette
Fri Jul 17, 2009 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 will hit 1500 in 2011-2012, according to JP Morg
Replies: 31
Views: 5950

JP Morgan?

It will fluctuate.
- J.P Morgan


J.P. Morgan's response when asked for his forecast of the stock market. I'd say it is about as accurate as reasonably possible. :)
by m_j_paquette
Mon Jul 13, 2009 11:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wells Fargo Bank Sues Itself
Replies: 10
Views: 2446

"This is just folks cranking out paperwork without conscious thought," said Anthony Sabino, a law professor at St. John's School of Law in New York City." It's not even unique. Wells Fargo has some internal... difficulties. I'm involved in a dispute between Wells Fargo Bank NA and We...
by m_j_paquette
Mon Jul 13, 2009 1:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: LMFOTP
Replies: 14
Views: 2341

GM Stock up 37% right now -- still available at the dollar store. No, that's GMGMQ, the stock for the defunct shell company. The gooroos finally halted it Friday afternoon. It should have been halted earlier in the week, or at the very least before the Friday open, but I suppose there were still po...
by m_j_paquette
Sat Jul 11, 2009 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: LMFOTP
Replies: 14
Views: 2341

A cautionary note...

Please remember that as of July 10, all good assets of the former General Motors (trading as GMGMQ) were sold to a new entity, Vehicle Acquisition Co., which will be renamed General Motors Co. The former General Motors (GMGMQ) is now Motor Liquidation Company. The "New GM" holding all good...
by m_j_paquette
Sun Jul 05, 2009 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Brinker sell signal??
Replies: 32
Views: 6720

Yes, I've heard that he's very Bogleheadish, and that he even has Jack Bogle on his show from time to time. And yet there's the Jekyll/Hyde aspect of his market timing calls. Guess that's how he makes his "real" money! Well, yes. If you're going to sell a newsletter, you've got to have co...
by m_j_paquette
Fri Jul 03, 2009 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Art Cashin: Why Stocks Will Rally This Week
Replies: 16
Views: 3608

NYSE was kept open an extra 15 minutes to address unspecified "system irregularities". Hmmm ... Hmmm indeed... "System irregularities" Someone have a slight order imbalance they needed to address? Now, you listen to me! I want trading reopened right now. Get those brokers back i...
by m_j_paquette
Mon Jun 22, 2009 4:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should Vanguard be able to protect its customers from Fraud?
Replies: 22
Views: 3872

Re: Should Vanguard be able to protect its customers from Fr

I got a call today from a guy saying he worked for Vanguard, we're on a recorded line and wanted to discuss some important things about my account. He said he wanted to verify that it was me that answered the phone and wanted to start asking personal questions. I turned it around on him and asked -...
by m_j_paquette
Wed Jun 17, 2009 9:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle: Investors Getting Killed In ETFs
Replies: 28
Views: 5219

I'm tempted to start a mutual fund that simply invests in VTI. Charge an expense ratio of 0.1% and I'll be set for life! Funny you should mention that. One of the options in my son's 401K is a mutual fund that invests entirely in QQQQ. There's a 1% load and a 0.75% expense for the fund, in addition...
by m_j_paquette
Thu Jun 04, 2009 9:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DOW 1,000,000?
Replies: 24
Views: 3683

Re: DOW 1,000,000?

However, if I am calculating things correctly 8750*1.0535^91=1,004,040. That looks like a perfectly cromulent calculation to me. Dow 1,000,000 in 2100. Hmmm... "Oh, hey, my kid wants me to pick up a Happy Meal for him on the way home. Can anyone spot me a $10,000 bill? I'll buy coffee tomorrow...
by m_j_paquette
Fri May 22, 2009 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Markets are Ready to Fall
Replies: 57
Views: 12984

Uh oh.

I rolled a 30d10. I think my portfolio is likely to be eaten by a grue. :shock:

Maybe I'll just stick it back in the file cabinet until next year...
by m_j_paquette
Wed May 13, 2009 10:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simplicity
Replies: 61
Views: 10011

Re: Could be perfect

20% Intermediate Term Bonds (VBIIX, VBILX) 20% Inflation Protected Securities (VIPSX, VAIPX) 33.6% Total Stock Market Index (VTSMX, VTSAX, VTI) 8.4% Small Cap Value (VISVX, VBR) 18% FTSE All-World Ex-US (VFWIX, VEU) Hi paquette: I think your proposed portfolio is excellent if you can the bond and s...
by m_j_paquette
Wed May 13, 2009 6:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simplicity
Replies: 61
Views: 10011

Well, heck, I'm pretty simple-minded, so here's what I came up with. I wanted to hold domestic and foreign equities, and thought a dollop of Small Cap Value might be nice. I read all those papers, lots of posts here, and looked at the charts over at Bob's place, and I figured for my retirement that ...
by m_j_paquette
Tue Mar 31, 2009 12:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Owner violated law, saved home from bushfire
Replies: 4
Views: 1553

Re: Owner violated law, saved home from bushfire

A family in Australia violated the law by bulldozing a firebreak around their home. After years in court, they get the last laugh. Their home is one of the few to survive a bushfire that leveled their neighborhood. Ah! So what you're really saying is that our asset allocation is like a firebreak, a...
by m_j_paquette
Thu Dec 11, 2008 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller's P/E10? waitaminutewaitaminute....
Replies: 27
Views: 4614

Re: Shiller's P/E10? waitaminutewaitaminute....

From that chart, P/E10=15 doesn't scream BUY to me. You will probably get average returns but only in the long run (30 years). I don't expect another PE bubble for another generation. And, curiously enough, P/E10 = 15 is about the average historical value for this number. P/E10=10 looks like a good...
by m_j_paquette
Wed Dec 10, 2008 10:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller's P/E10? waitaminutewaitaminute....
Replies: 27
Views: 4614

Re: Shiller's P/E10? waitaminutewaitaminute....

Robert Shiller, learned and respected academic, who notably called the hoIs PE10 7.5 really Shiller's 'safe' buy-in point, and otherwise, he would recommend against all equities? If so, it might be a loooong time waiting to hitch your wagon to the engine of business prosperity, if that's your plan,...
by m_j_paquette
Wed Dec 10, 2008 12:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Retirees Don't Need More Than 20% In Stocks
Replies: 53
Views: 9392

Re: Why Retirees Don't Need More Than 20% In Stocks

And of course one can get more than one annuity, using different companies. Same as one can do with FDIC-insured cash deposits. Go up to your state guarantee association limit for each company. Then you spread your risk of any one company going under. Note that the terms of the guarantees vary wild...
by m_j_paquette
Sat Nov 29, 2008 5:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nightmares for market timers
Replies: 234
Views: 41129

Accounting for taxes : Here are the results of incorporating taxes on the 17 liquidations of the 200 day moving average portfolio. A 15% tax on gains was used, with the assumption that all assets are held in a taxable account. Growth in $1 from 5/18/1966 to 10/31/2008 ...Buy-hold-rebalance............
by m_j_paquette
Sun Nov 23, 2008 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NetVest thread
Replies: 3
Views: 1488

Without commenting on the merits of the issue at hand, I would respectfully refer readers to the following complaint filed by the Securities Commissioner for the State of Maryland:

http://www.oag.state.md.us/Securities/ComplaintMel.pdf
by m_j_paquette
Sat Nov 22, 2008 12:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend projections?
Replies: 8
Views: 1842

Welcome to retirement. Equity dividend payments are an important part of our income. The portfolio is about 50-50. The bond/cd side pays about 4.5%, the stock side pays around 2.5%. So the total cash thrown off by the portfolio is around 3.5% which certainly does pay the bills. Since I'm retired, I...
by m_j_paquette
Sat Nov 22, 2008 12:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Apparently we're just not scared eough
Replies: 44
Views: 7072

ken250 wrote:People are still in Stage 1: Denial


I forget. Which stage is it again, where you find yourself curled up in fetal position under your desk, sucking your thumb and whimpering, with the room lit only by the baleful red glow of the Bloomberg terminal?


:shock:
by m_j_paquette
Fri Nov 14, 2008 4:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New GM CEO... Steve Jobs!
Replies: 13
Views: 2821

When and where can I get a computer like the Next Cube (I think) that has no fan? I hate the noise as we use our computers in our family room. My garage? The NeXT Cube had a fairly loud fan, actually. The flat little NeXTStation computers (pizza-box package that fit underneath the monitor) used a s...
by m_j_paquette
Fri Nov 14, 2008 4:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New GM CEO... Steve Jobs!
Replies: 13
Views: 2821

Well, it's an interesting idea, but Mr. Jobs actually has a bit of a support infrastructure and staff that he'd need to bring along. It might be easier to just ask him if Apple could buy GM out of their cash stash (GM market cap is 1.85B, and 45.16B in debt, Apple has no debt and cash on hand of 24....
by m_j_paquette
Thu Nov 06, 2008 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future Equity Rate of Return from Here
Replies: 48
Views: 8184

I'm exaggerating, but either you have to accept that 7% figure or come up with reason for ignoring it... some better reason than "if I accept it, my projections look lousy." Is it questionable to assume that this part of the economy can continue to grow at ~3 times the rate of everything ...
by m_j_paquette
Fri Oct 17, 2008 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time to re-think muni's as safety anchor?
Replies: 52
Views: 10739

There is a real possibility that higher than normal muni yields are a signal of higher than normal risk. I wouldn't ignore the danger. There may be some risk there but most of the current high yield appears to be due to asset liquidation into a relatively illiquid market. Unlike corporate bonds, mu...
by m_j_paquette
Thu Oct 16, 2008 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Continue buying Muni Fund- Larry?
Replies: 31
Views: 6750

Yes what is happening is massive liquidation forced by margin calls and collateral calls and hedge fund redemptions Do hedgies hold munis? I thought they were mostly a retail brokerage product. No, there are a bunch of hedge funds that arbitrage (play the interest rate differential) between munis a...
by m_j_paquette
Sun Sep 14, 2008 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your Personal Inflation Rate in Retirement
Replies: 15
Views: 2937

Heh. I used the Fidelity retirement planning tools as one of my 'can I retire yet' checks. The Poor Market 90% confidence model had me running out of cash when I was 98 after I send in my annual $350,000 health insurance premium. What type of inflation assumptions was that model making? If that $35...