Search found 1393 matches

by dziuniek
Tue Feb 06, 2024 9:58 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Are any BH's not wealthy?
Replies: 165
Views: 25661

Re: Are any BH's not wealthy?

Yea, me.
by dziuniek
Tue Jan 16, 2024 6:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14343
Views: 1971035

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Impatience wrote: Sun Jan 14, 2024 11:24 pm
Wiggums wrote: Sun Jan 14, 2024 11:15 am There's a lesson here, and it's one that shows up over and over again in different forms: don't rely on backtesting and ending up fighting 'the last war.' Build a diversified portfolio to weather various circumstances.

Where is hedgefundie? Is the excellent adventure over?
I doubt it. He started early enough that he’s surely still up vs. an unlevered strategy. I timed it terribly and I’m pretty much break even. The strategy has not even remotely been invalidated, though I think a lot of folks have switched to using futures to implement it.
Break-even sounds pretty good to me. Still down quite a bit here :)

Time will tell.
by dziuniek
Sun Jan 14, 2024 12:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Where to invest for income
Replies: 17
Views: 3106

Re: Where to invest for income

Since you seem very risk averse...

TIPS ladder, I guess.
by dziuniek
Sat Jan 06, 2024 4:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: gougou's shareholder yield strategy
Replies: 142
Views: 18586

Re: gougou's shareholder yield strategy

I believe Meb Faber has an ETf for something like this.

SYLD

https://www.cambriafunds.com/syld
by dziuniek
Tue Jan 02, 2024 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "These will be the best 10 stocks in 2023, analysts say"
Replies: 120
Views: 22729

Re: "These will be the best 10 stocks in 2023, analysts say"

Jack FFR1846 wrote: Wed Dec 21, 2022 10:10 am
z3r0c00l wrote: Wed Dec 21, 2022 5:18 am Why would they bother listing anything other than the best 1 stock of 2023? Just buy it on leverage and retire early. My prediction is Tesla going to a PE of 22, implied downside 50%, and DISH will be delisted in a few years.
I'll predict that China will nationalize Tesla's China factory and continue producing cars, selling to whatever countries will take them. Their CEO will continue to prioritize trolling the world over focusing on making the business successful. 2023 stock price will go down 48%.
I predict the same thing, but the stock will be up 48%. :beer
by dziuniek
Sun Dec 31, 2023 10:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: TurboTax 2023 offer
Replies: 282
Views: 50657

Re: TurboTax 2023 offer

by dziuniek
Sun Dec 31, 2023 8:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Share your net worth progression
Replies: 4273
Views: 1072358

Re: Share your net worth progression

saagar_is_cool wrote: Sat Dec 30, 2023 9:00 pm How are you all figuring out how much is savings vs. investment growth. Between 401(k) contributions, DCA, tax loss harvesting and investing additional amount when available, I don't see an easy way to calculate actual contributions vs. investment returns even from a Mint exported sheet of the full year transactions list.
Statements.
by dziuniek
Sat Dec 30, 2023 1:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Share your net worth progression
Replies: 4273
Views: 1072358

Re: Share your net worth progression

Age Year Net-Worth (Stonks, Home Equity) 26 2011 YE $ (20,000.00) BS Accounting - student loans. 27 2012 YE $ (10,000.00) First "big boy job" 28 2013 YE $ (40,000.00) Married. Bought house. Started MSAT. More student loans. Combined student loans $113k! (ouch) 29 2014 YE $ (15,000.00) Finished MSAT. Started MBA. 30 2015 YE $ 26,500.00 Finally Positive net worth. Kiddo 1 arrives. Finished MBA. 31 2016 YE $ 94,000.00 Wife new job, more $. 32 2017 YE $ 147,500.00 Sold house & bought new construction (ouch x2), paid off 2 cars, 1 to go. $43k left on student loans! 33 2018 YE $ 182,500.00 New State job. Kiddo 2 arrives.$35k left on student loans. 34 2019 YE $ 248,000.00 2 kids in daycare (ouch). $28k in student loans left. Wifu has...
by dziuniek
Tue Dec 26, 2023 10:22 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Streaming of CFP Playoffs
Replies: 20
Views: 3131

Re: Streaming of CFP Playoffs

Leesbro63 wrote: Sun Dec 24, 2023 2:13 pm And to think I thought Certified Financial Planners started a tournament of financial plans!
I'd tune in for those!
by dziuniek
Tue Dec 26, 2023 9:45 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is Solar Worth It?
Replies: 193
Views: 45561

Re: Is Solar Worth It?

And as a price sanity check - please check Tesla's online pricing as well.

I've found them to often be $10k cheaper than competition.
by dziuniek
Tue Dec 26, 2023 8:15 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Share your net worth progression
Replies: 4273
Views: 1072358

Re: Share your net worth progression

Estudasses wrote: Mon Dec 18, 2023 12:14 pm
Estudasses wrote: Mon Jan 02, 2023 4:13 pm
Estudasses wrote: Wed Dec 15, 2021 4:00 pm
Estudasses wrote: Fri Dec 11, 2020 4:47 pm Jan, 2017: 3k (finished college, aged 22)
Jan, 2019: 12k (finished grad school, started job in tech)
Jan, 2020: 60k
Jan, 2021: 180k (first promotion)
Jan, 2022: 380k
Jan, 2023: 650k (got married)
Jan, 2024: ~1M (second promotion)
We have a time traveler in our midst. :beer
by dziuniek
Mon Dec 11, 2023 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing 100% into TQQQ
Replies: 231
Views: 36291

Re: Investing 100% into TQQQ

It's as if someone missed the hedgefundie adventure....
by dziuniek
Mon Dec 11, 2023 12:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much are you down\up from the top set in 2021?
Replies: 79
Views: 11946

Re: How much are you down\up from the top set in 2021?

+15% ... mostly contributions methinks.
by dziuniek
Sat Dec 02, 2023 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 5249
Views: 900148

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

+22% (with contributions that is)
by dziuniek
Sat Dec 02, 2023 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14343
Views: 1971035

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

corpgator wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2023 7:29 pm Had to have been one of the best months ever for the strategy.
It was, yup.
by dziuniek
Tue Nov 28, 2023 7:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What non-index fund investment made you a lot of money?
Replies: 141
Views: 26486

Re: What non-index fund investment made you a lot of money?

November 2020 REFI rate lock at 2.375% 30yr fixed rate mortgage. :)
The Company naturally dragged their feet and I closed it in April 2021 or so.

Better lucky than smart, I guess!
by dziuniek
Fri Nov 24, 2023 4:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14343
Views: 1971035

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

In case anyone missed it...

TMF will be doing a reverse split.
by dziuniek
Thu Sep 07, 2023 7:52 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: lump sum conversion of defined benefit plan
Replies: 35
Views: 2347

Re: lump sum conversion of defined benefit plan

I'd keep the pension just to have a variety of different income streams.

I'd keep the pension, you have plenty of other assets. (saying that without knowing your expenses in retirement)

Do you want to leave a legacy? Is that a consideration?
by dziuniek
Thu Sep 07, 2023 7:48 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tesla Model X price drop: thoughts?
Replies: 102
Views: 10036

Re: Tesla Model X price drop: thoughts?

Tesla - most recalls from car brands.

I like them, but not ready to purchase one yet.
by dziuniek
Wed Sep 06, 2023 7:21 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: trade in a 3 year old mazda cx-5?
Replies: 38
Views: 3507

Re: trade in a 3 year old mazda cx-5?

catlady wrote: Mon Sep 04, 2023 7:55 am
dziuniek wrote: Thu Jul 20, 2023 8:16 am
Have 2018 CX-9 and the infotainment is sort of grabage.
No apple car play or android auto yet.
We took ours to the Mazda dealer in 2019 and they installed the AirPlay module for around $500.
That's good to know. Thanks, will look into it.
by dziuniek
Fri Aug 18, 2023 10:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14343
Views: 1971035

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Still in it albeit I'm at:

55% UPRO
15% TMF
15% EDV
15% cash* (currently FDRXX)
by dziuniek
Fri Aug 18, 2023 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14343
Views: 1971035

Re: Can someone please summarize HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure?

Portfolios like 60/40 aren't optimum in the MPT framework, because the portfolio's characteristics are dominated by stocks and the bonds don't get a chance to perform much of their diversification function. The solution to that is to cut the stock allocation and move to a bond-heavy portfolio. That has the effect of improving risk-adjusted return, but it also has the effect of reducing return itself. So the second step is to counteract that and bring it back to the same return by using leverage. Thanks nisiprius. Where can I read more about this? Are these risk parity portfolios? Unfortunately, the phrase "risk parity" isn't well defined. It is a phrase that was created by Edward Qian, of PanAgora Asset Management, to describe th...
by dziuniek
Thu Jul 20, 2023 1:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are we buying too much house?
Replies: 216
Views: 17536

Re: Are we buying too much house?

Sure you guys can afford it.

Personally, I would just wait to pay off my other debts or save up enough to pay them off. (aka cash in bank/hysa/cd/i-bonds/etc)

It would make me feel safer about the purchase.

Shouldn't take you guys all that long... few/several months? Not that long considering a home purchase is likely the biggest transaction most people make.
by dziuniek
Thu Jul 20, 2023 11:15 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Intl. airline ticket prices... why so expensive / strategies for finding discounts?
Replies: 67
Views: 8161

Re: Intl. airline ticket prices... why so expensive / strategies for finding discounts?

I see 1 stop denver to dublin for $561 roundtrip. (economy)

United/Lufthansa -> Sep 14-21.

Then get a cheap local flight?
by dziuniek
Thu Jul 20, 2023 8:17 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: If retired early, what do you tell people you do?
Replies: 338
Views: 29785

Re: If retired early, what do you tell people you do?

If that moment ever arrives - portfolio manager.
by dziuniek
Thu Jul 20, 2023 8:16 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: trade in a 3 year old mazda cx-5?
Replies: 38
Views: 3507

Re: trade in a 3 year old mazda cx-5?

I recently purchased a 2023 CX-5 and moved our 2018 CX-5 to our second home in another state. The "Infotainment" system is certainly much improved since 2018, with a bigger screen and Car Play and Android Auto. The 2024 Infotainment will be even better, as I understand it, with wireless CarPlay. I can't point to anything specific, but the newer car just drives better, with refined handling, steering, braking, etc. - basically overall feel. Of course, my older car is 5 years old. Overall, I don't think there have been fundamental changes in styling, safety, powertrains, etc., over the past three years. Whether the new features, manufacturer's warranty, and fresh color are worth $9,000 - only you can answer that. This. Have 2018 CX...
by dziuniek
Fri Nov 18, 2022 1:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Dream Car Porsche - Should I buy it ?
Replies: 388
Views: 46033

Re: Dream Car Porsche - Should I buy it ?

Absolutely. YOLO.
by dziuniek
Mon Oct 24, 2022 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long Treasuries down 55%. Time to bottom fish?
Replies: 416
Views: 52064

Re: Long Treasuries down almost 50%. Time to bottom fish?

In both of these scenarios you are speculating about the future path of rates / asset prices. The 30yr currently guarantees 4.30% regardless of where rates go in the future. If you plan to hold the bond to maturity you do not need to form an opinion about the Fed or future rates or future economic conditions. The fact that the market is pricing the 1yr at a higher yield than the 30yr tells us that the market views short term rates as more risky than long term That is all true, but have you considered how old you'd be at maturity? That's a long long time to have to keep holding to ensure being made whole and then some. Not a problem if you're planning on living forever. Also, in which case, may i offer you some triple levered long term trea...
by dziuniek
Wed Oct 19, 2022 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14343
Views: 1971035

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Tamalak wrote: Wed Oct 19, 2022 10:20 am
Jags4186 wrote: Wed Oct 19, 2022 10:01 am
Marseille07 wrote: Wed Oct 19, 2022 9:56 am
Tamalak wrote: Wed Oct 19, 2022 8:12 am COVID crash is when this strategy first really tempted me, yeah. I guess the big weakness here is the difficulty of backtesting due to the youth of UPRO and TMF. Especially as the last time inflation was bad was FOURTY years ago!
Buddy, people have posted numerous simulations through the 70s. It would have gone -70% was already known, or at least some posters including myself knew that.
There's a difference between knowing it and living it.
This. The last time inflation was an actual problem was before I was born. This is uncharted for me.
Have we hit the max 70s drawdown numbers yet?
Seems like pain could be worse this time around - only because we could be far from done... who knows.
by dziuniek
Tue Jul 26, 2022 7:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 3.8% 139k business building loan payoff faster?
Replies: 7
Views: 617

Re: 3.8% 139k business building loan payoff faster?

The rate is under 4%.
It's cheap at least these days.

You've a really good savings rate anyways. Where would the extra money go after you pay-off the loan?
If you're going to blow the extra cashflow on toys, then maybe paying the loan monthly is a better idea.

Further, is the building loan personally guaranteed?
I'm just thinking about worst-case here...

I'd rather have my house paid off than the business building if the business goes the way of the dodo.
(Even though the the house loan is a lower rate).
by dziuniek
Tue Jun 14, 2022 12:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: TX electricity rates
Replies: 88
Views: 9643

Re: TX electricity rates

Come to CT - we're paying about 27 cents per kW. That roughly 12 cents to generation and 15 cents to deliver and maintain the grid. We have a large nuclear plant (Millstone) but I believe that goes elsewhere. Doesn't go elsewhere - well, in part, I think. I think burning gas is about 55% of electricity generation in CT. Renewables, hydro & wind are about 20% together. Electric power is anonymous once it's fed into the grid. So you can really only talk about aggregates - CT as an exporter or importer of electricity. I suspect it is a net importer. And that power is (expensively) generated with natural gas. In practice, to use the Ontario example (50-60% nuclear, 20-30% hydro electric). At times of peak runoff (Spring) and low demand (Sp...
by dziuniek
Fri Jun 10, 2022 6:25 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: TX electricity rates
Replies: 88
Views: 9643

Re: TX electricity rates

pshonore wrote: Thu Jun 09, 2022 4:48 pm Come to CT - we're paying about 27 cents per kW. That roughly 12 cents to generation and 15 cents to deliver and maintain the grid. We have a large nuclear plant (Millstone) but I believe that goes elsewhere.
Doesn't go elsewhere - well, in part, I think.

I think burning gas is about 55% of electricity generation in CT.

Renewables, hydro & wind are about 20% together.
by dziuniek
Wed May 25, 2022 5:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Using a target fund as a bond element
Replies: 8
Views: 810

Re: Using a target fund as a bond element

I mean just use your wanted allocation to drive the decision combined with ER.

Either can achieve the effect you want.

Unless you want to be 100% fixed income, in which case, there's one answer.
by dziuniek
Wed May 25, 2022 7:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A -20% correction sometimes IS followed by a recovery. Sometimes not. You just don't know.
Replies: 57
Views: 11068

Re: A -20% correction sometimes IS followed by a recovery. Sometimes not. You just don't know.

richard.h.gao wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 1:01 am
UpsetRaptor wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 8:47 pm This is not a prediction by any means, but it feels like all it'd take is one inflation reading to come in unexpectedly low, or one JPow statement that the Fed would be willing to let off the brakes to avoid a clear recession, and we could very well have a 5%+ pop in a day.
In other words, the stock market is controlled by the fed more than anything else.
Buying index funds is going for a ride anyways. :sharebeer
by dziuniek
Tue May 24, 2022 11:15 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tires for 16 year old car
Replies: 125
Views: 9229

Re: Tires for 16 year old car

I'm seeing 4 cheapest tires at walmart for 2006 honda accord 17in.... -> $310. + install. install si $15/tire... so.... much less than 600.
by dziuniek
Thu May 19, 2022 6:46 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Stone patio really costs $15K?
Replies: 78
Views: 12147

Re: Stone patio really costs $15K?

We built a patio with a similar fire pit and a bench in 2020.
Out patio was 20 X 30 feet so sizeable plus a sidewalk to the front of the house (narrow but still).

I paid either 15.5 or 16.k (can't remember which).

This was in Connecticut. Get another quote, seems high, but so does everything else in the last 2 years....
by dziuniek
Mon Apr 25, 2022 6:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14343
Views: 1971035

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Holding TMF right now feels like fighting the FED... :twisted:
by dziuniek
Fri Apr 01, 2022 8:26 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How Often Do You Measure Your Net Worth?
Replies: 229
Views: 19363

Re: How Often Do You Measure Your Net Worth?

I look every so often, as most of accounts are hooked up to mint dot com.

That being said, my spreadsheet is on a quarterly basis - as all accounts do not auto rebalance.
Knowing what's in each account helps me rebalance quarterly.
by dziuniek
Sun Mar 27, 2022 3:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond interest rates to 1970s levels?
Replies: 19
Views: 3427

Re: Bond interest rates to 1970s levels?

At some point when the rates rise too high, it is going to cause a recession. And recession curbs the demand and tends to bring the inflation down. Just to amplify this point, it's worth looking at the historical relationship between inflationary spikes and recessions. Inflationary spikes certainly haven't been the cause for every recession in the past — however, most every inflationary spike since the 1940s has only been alleviated by a recession (chart below). https://i.imgur.com/2pXdAc8.png NOTE: Recession periods are in gray. Source: Ben Carlson Plus, it's generally understood that the runaway, double-digit inflation of the 1970s was as much due to a clear policy failure by the Fed (i.e., deciding to concentrate on full employment and ...
by dziuniek
Fri Mar 25, 2022 9:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14343
Views: 1971035

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

perfectuncertainty wrote: Thu Mar 24, 2022 10:42 am I'll go out on a limb here. There is so much pessimism that it's time to look a the market without the filters of the news...

My call for SPX is 4,820.
For UPRO it is 75.40
For TMF it is 25.70.
For when? :)
by dziuniek
Tue Mar 22, 2022 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14343
Views: 1971035

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Market timing the yield curve is a slippery slope. But what you mention seems like a special case of the general concept of "carry investing on the yield curve". You can google and read the papers. Thanks, I'll take a look. Bonds are a little different from stocks in a few regards, so market timing them is a little more reasonable. The rationale the hosts gave was that the bond market is telling you whether or not you will be compensated for taking duration risk. If the yield curve is flat, you're taking a lot more risk investing in LTTs without the reward. That's not true. The yield curve is flat when rates are expected to fall. This can be an advantageous time to own LTT. Yup. Remember folks, every rate hiking cycle ends in a r...
by dziuniek
Sun Mar 20, 2022 8:56 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Share your net worth progression
Replies: 4273
Views: 1072358

Re: Share your net worth progression

late* Annual Update:

Age Year Net-Worth
26 2011 $(20,000)
27 2012 $(10,000)
28 2013 $(40,000)
29 2014 $(15,000)
30 2015 $26,500
31 2016 $94,000
32 2017 $147,500
33 2018 $182,500
34 2019 $248,000
35 2020 $349,000 - updated, was wrong, forgot an account.
36 2021 $515,000 - wowzaaa.
37 2022 $490,000 YTD - not a great start! :D (3.20.22)
by dziuniek
Sun Mar 20, 2022 7:29 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying $20 to E-File State Return
Replies: 183
Views: 30517

Re: Paying $20 to E-File State Return

Lol, I always print my state. Thoguh I think my state is getting desperate this year - they actually mailed a postcard sating you can file online ;D
by dziuniek
Sat Mar 19, 2022 5:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why 20 year US treasury is yielding more than 30?
Replies: 32
Views: 4537

Re: Why 20 year US treasury is yielding more than 30?

Personally more worried about 3s paying more than 5s as of Friday.
by dziuniek
Fri Mar 18, 2022 12:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What are you not purchasing due to inflation?
Replies: 284
Views: 25589

Re: What are you not purchasing due to inflation?

Not much really.

Maybe no more long-term bonds. :twisted:

There's still enough slack in the budget to keep things going as they have been. Though that could change if high inflation persists. "Crossies" that it does not.
lbs
I am eating less, but that's because I've got the covid-15 in 2020.... another 15 in 2021 too.... so it's about time I took care of that :)
by dziuniek
Thu Mar 17, 2022 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 2259
Views: 266979

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

Lee_WSP wrote: Sun Sep 15, 2019 11:06 am The problem of being time rich & resource poor when young and time poor, but resource rich when near death is a real problem, but I'm not sure what the solution is.
This one is easy. Lottery. :sharebeer