Search found 805 matches
- Thu Feb 01, 2024 6:02 pm
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: How can I tell if Solar Panels are working effectively?
- Replies: 21
- Views: 1892
Re: How can I tell if Solar Panels are working effectively?
I think my reduction in net generation is due to increased electricity use. I didn't previously understand that your home will use electricity generated by your solar panels and then any excess will be sent to the electrical grid (SCE). I had thought that you just send your solar powered electricity directly to the grid, and then you just pulled the power you need. I did not understand that you actually use some of that solar power you are generating before sending any excess back to the grid. So the reason my summer month net generation showed so low on my SCE statements is that I was using a ton of it and only had a small amount to send back to the grid. I think we are using a lot more energy now than we did in 2021. Next step is to figur...
- Thu Feb 01, 2024 1:31 pm
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: How can I tell if Solar Panels are working effectively?
- Replies: 21
- Views: 1892
Re: How can I tell if Solar Panels are working effectively?
Yes, I remember that. I am in Temecula. Was 2021 a great year for solar energy?cadreamer2015 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 01, 2024 1:24 pm Our solar panels generated ~8% less in 2023 than in 2022. Early 2023 was very wet - we finally broke the drought. I’m in San Diego county.
Also - I'm seeing a severe degradation in generation during July and August. I know some of that is supposed to be due to heat causing poorer solar performance, but is there something with how Southern California Edison accepts energy credits that reduces the amount? Some kind of cap?
- Thu Feb 01, 2024 12:47 pm
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: How can I tell if Solar Panels are working effectively?
- Replies: 21
- Views: 1892
Re: How can I tell if Solar Panels are working effectively?
They were on the house when we bought it in 2020. I think they were probably about 3 years old at that time.
If I could just find some kind of historical weather information on cloud cover or available sunlight for my area then I could graph that out and see if there is a correlation to the solar generation of each month/year.
If I could just find some kind of historical weather information on cloud cover or available sunlight for my area then I could graph that out and see if there is a correlation to the solar generation of each month/year.
- Thu Feb 01, 2024 12:30 pm
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: How can I tell if Solar Panels are working effectively?
- Replies: 21
- Views: 1892
How can I tell if Solar Panels are working effectively?
I have noticed a drop in generation from 2021, but i am thinking it could be just due to yearly differences in sunlight. I live in Southern California. Is there a website or app that shows the sunlight amount per month per year that I could use to help analyze this?
- Wed Nov 29, 2023 10:25 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: If VTI or SPY fell by 65-70% and stayed there, would any other investment work?
- Replies: 17
- Views: 2555
Re: If VTI or SPY fell by 65-70% and stayed there, would any other investment work?
Highly desired job skills & productive assets. They can provide income and reduce expenses in tough times while others are out of work and paying for services and lodging.
- Wed Nov 29, 2023 10:18 am
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Fitness assessment questions to ask myself and/or providers
- Replies: 29
- Views: 2850
Re: Fitness assessment questions to ask myself and/or providers
There are a lot of naysayers, but Crossfit is the best bang-for-your-buck and time. It improves your mobility, cardio, strength, gymnastic skills, etc. in a high intensity 45 min (other 15 is usually talking and prepping). Being part of a group keeps you motivated and coming back. If you can get someone to come with you, that's even more effective. The biggest thing I've learned about being successful at Crossfit at age 47, is that you have to de-emphasize maxing out your weights and instead focus on form and mobility while also pushing your cardio endurance. Trying to max out weight and strength will just lead to injury when you are tired and trying to get through a WOD. Strenght will come over time, but you just need to be patient and avo...
- Wed Nov 29, 2023 10:11 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Which budget app has these specific Mint features?
- Replies: 3
- Views: 871
Re: Which budget app has these specific Mint features?
I just started using YNAB about a month ago, and I believe it has all the features you are looking for. It has a little different approach than Mint, but after using it a month I believe it is superior to Mint in the way it motivates changes in spending behaviors based on the budget method.
I am responsible for setting up and categorizing transactions, and my wife is in charge of dealing with overspending re-allocations and assigning money. This helps keep her involved and making decisions about her spending without me having to nag.
I am responsible for setting up and categorizing transactions, and my wife is in charge of dealing with overspending re-allocations and assigning money. This helps keep her involved and making decisions about her spending without me having to nag.
- Fri Mar 31, 2023 3:50 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Set It and Forget It, or ……
- Replies: 32
- Views: 3529
Re: Set It and Forget It, or ……
You should construct your portfolio based on the function of each asset to the overall purpose of your portfolio. Assets perform differently in different economic situations. If you hold onto your total bond fund it will recover some of the capital lost through interest yield gains over time. So the short term loss of a declining bond fund price should be mitigated over time with the increased yield. I see bond funds as more of a "ballast" to a portfolio that provides some steadiness for your portfolio while equities and other more risky assets are there to generate higher returns. The bonds are there for ballast during the difficult times like the last 2 years, however bonds also have dropped in price which is abnormal. However, ...
- Fri Mar 31, 2023 3:39 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Is a CD a CD anymore?
- Replies: 76
- Views: 8916
Re: Is a CD a CD anymore?
The utility of the CD for the OP is distinct from the market valuation of the CD. However, the value of the interest being generated by the CD is relative to the cost of goods and services in the market. Most likely, if newer CDs are generating higher levels of interest, then the overall costs of goods and services in the economy has inflated. Therefore the value of the interest being generated by the CD is less in relation to the available goods and services.
- Tue Mar 28, 2023 1:48 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: “Stop Playing”..What Does This Really Mean?
- Replies: 98
- Views: 12323
Re: “Stop Playing”..What Does This Really Mean?
Have as many assets and productive skills that will ensure your well-being even in the event of a financial crisis or unemployment. House Paid off Cars Paid off and relatively new Solar electricity Dependable water sources Dependable food sources Marketable skills that can be traded for good, services, or money Health Good relationships with those who care about you Newish appliances with any years left of use Insurance Enough cash equivalents for several months of expenses Income to pay off any expenses each month - whether that income is from labor, rent, dividends, interest, social security, etc. I might be missing some things, but you get the idea. Any financial assets beyond this is icing. I would not sit on a pile of cash or investmen...
- Mon Mar 13, 2023 1:16 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]
- Replies: 2482
- Views: 212037
Re: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]
Seems good. But I also think there are no free lunches. What are the ramifications of these actions? Reduced risk of financial assets and thus greater prices and higher PE ratios as compared to previous eras? Does upward mobility of the have nots get tougher as the price of assets is out of reach?nisiprius wrote: ↑Mon Mar 13, 2023 1:11 pm I don't want the FDIC and the Fed to operate by mechanical rules. Both of them are charged with preventing, containing, and mitigating crises, all of which are unique and arise from non-recurring circumstances. It's appropriate for them to have broad discretion and to use it.
- Mon Mar 13, 2023 12:54 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: What does "won the game stop playing" mean in practice?
- Replies: 250
- Views: 38838
Re: What does "won the game stop playing" mean in practice?
Winning the game and stop playing - not sure one can do that anymore. Money as a medium of exchange is less and less stable IMHO. I'm starting to think of my "wealth" in terms of productive assets and equipment (true 'capital') rather than in dollars or any other medium of exchange. Dollars and other denominations measure the value of our assets, but when the measures are manipulated and unstable, it is hard to use them to determine your wealth. A better way of looking at it might be, do I have everything I need to live and thrive despite what is happening in the markets? Enough land to raise vegetables and chickens? LOL, well, we still have specialization and so not all would need to farm :) I'm just thinking in terms of transfo...
- Mon Mar 13, 2023 12:47 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: What does "won the game stop playing" mean in practice?
- Replies: 250
- Views: 38838
Re: What does "won the game stop playing" mean in practice?
Winning the game and stop playing - not sure one can do that anymore. Money as a medium of exchange is less and less stable IMHO. I'm starting to think of my "wealth" in terms of productive assets and equipment (true 'capital') rather than in dollars or any other medium of exchange. Dollars and other denominations measure the value of our assets, but when the measures are manipulated and unstable, it is hard to use them to determine your wealth. A better way of looking at it might be, do I have everything I need to live and thrive despite what is happening in the markets?
- Mon Mar 13, 2023 12:30 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]
- Replies: 2482
- Views: 212037
Re: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]
There are no limits to the creation of money to prevent institutional or bank failure. There will therefore be no significant deflationary events. Inflation is the lone limiter of money creation and government spending. Technocratic MMT is the de facto system replacing the older system.
When constructing a portfolio, I used to be sure to add assets that would be more beneficial as "insurance" against depressions or financial crisis. But now I just don't see that as happening due to the power of the Fed and treasury. Instead I recommend holding equities and assets rather than debt obligations like bonds, etc.
- Mon Mar 13, 2023 11:16 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]
- Replies: 2482
- Views: 212037
Re: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]
The power of the Fed and Treasury is amazing. They can basically do whatever they want. They can backstop anything without a vote. The future will have significant inflation for sure!
FWIW - I am not condemning or supporting their actions. I'm just amazed.
FWIW - I am not condemning or supporting their actions. I'm just amazed.
- Mon Mar 13, 2023 10:59 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]
- Replies: 2482
- Views: 212037
Re: [Silicon Valley Bank fails, FDIC takes over]
New update 6:15pm ET Sunday from the Fed: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20230312a.htm "creation of a new Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP), offering loans of up to one year in length to banks, savings associations, credit unions, and other eligible depository institutions pledging U.S. Treasuries, agency debt and mortgage-backed securities, and other qualifying assets as collateral. These assets will be valued at par." "to enable the FDIC to complete its resolution of Silicon Valley Bank in a manner that fully protects all depositors, both insured and uninsured" :sharebeer BUT it’s not a bailout…. ??? I don’t understand Government. Deleted. I found additional info that removed most of my...
- Mon Mar 13, 2023 10:52 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]
- Replies: 2482
- Views: 212037
Re: Regulators close New York’s Signature Bank, citing systemic risk!!
Customer withdrawals forced them to sell these long treasuries to meet capitalization requirements. That triggered realizing losses (current market value is less than bond par value). So as more customers withdraw funds they have to sell more bonds at a loss and this accelerates as people run on the bank.
- Mon Mar 13, 2023 10:16 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]
- Replies: 2482
- Views: 212037
Re: [Bank failure discussion mega-thread]
Bank runs in the age of social media and the ability to instantly initiate bank transfers between institutions. Wow. Buckle up. These last few years of social media induced panic episodes is makin me very concerned about what is about to happen.
- Sat Nov 26, 2022 8:40 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: CA 529 Distributions taxed at state level? Penalty?
- Replies: 8
- Views: 1238
Re: CA 529 Distributions taxed at state level? Penalty?
Thank you! It’s too bad CA hasn’t adjusted their qualified expenses to include K-12.
- Fri Nov 25, 2022 11:19 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: CA 529 Distributions taxed at state level? Penalty?
- Replies: 8
- Views: 1238
Re: CA 529 Distributions taxed at state level? Penalty?
But does CA consider K-12 private school as a “qualified” education expense? That’s the question I am trying to get answered.
- Fri Nov 25, 2022 4:59 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: CA 529 Distributions taxed at state level? Penalty?
- Replies: 8
- Views: 1238
Re: CA 529 Distributions taxed at state level? Penalty?
Anyone have an answer?
- Thu Nov 24, 2022 7:41 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: CA 529 Distributions taxed at state level? Penalty?
- Replies: 8
- Views: 1238
CA 529 Distributions taxed at state level? Penalty?
I know that qualified K-12 529 distributions are not taxed or penalized at the Federal level. As of a few years ago, California did tax and penalize these distributions. Does anyone know if the law or rules in CA have changed to allow tax and penalty free distributions of qualified K-12 expenses?
- Thu Oct 13, 2022 4:30 pm
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: San Diego recommendations
- Replies: 15
- Views: 1419
Re: San Diego recommendations
I can personally testify the following are all fantastic for families.
San Diego Zoo
Legoland
Safari Park - San Diego Zoo
Balboa Park museums area
Sea World
Old Town - kids eat free at Casa Guadalajara
Hotel Coronado and Coronado area - rent some bikes, awesome toy store there too
Cabrillo National Monument
La Jolla - the Sunny Jim cave & store
La Jolla beaches and walkways and tide pools
Oceanside surf lessons/ beach
Harbor cruise
San Diego Zoo
Legoland
Safari Park - San Diego Zoo
Balboa Park museums area
Sea World
Old Town - kids eat free at Casa Guadalajara
Hotel Coronado and Coronado area - rent some bikes, awesome toy store there too
Cabrillo National Monument
La Jolla - the Sunny Jim cave & store
La Jolla beaches and walkways and tide pools
Oceanside surf lessons/ beach
Harbor cruise
- Tue Oct 04, 2022 8:58 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: If things are so bad, how come the market is up 900 points today?
- Replies: 141
- Views: 15321
Re: If things are so bad, how come the market is up 900 points today?
The stock market is making bets based on the perceived future actions of the Fed. If economic or financial news is bad, that means the Fed is getting closer to stopping the monetary tightening. And vice versa. If labor news is good (less unemployment) that means the Fed needs to tighten more to fight inflation. FOMO traders want to jump in before the next Fed induced bubble. Government and central bank interventions have distorted the economic and financial price signals. It's kind of perverse, but it is what it is.
- Sun Oct 02, 2022 6:44 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: 529 distribution: question about unique situation
- Replies: 10
- Views: 1276
Re: 529 distribution: question about unique situation
Great answer, thank you! If my stepson’s father paid some of his rent, does that subtract from the allowable off campus room and board money that I can disburse from the 529? Or is that totally separate and has no bearing on the amount I can disburse from the 529? You don't have to directly pay education expenses with the distributions: The designated beneficiary generally doesn't have to include in income any earnings distributed from a QTP if the total distribution is less than or equal to adjusted qualified education expenses Note how you only have to compare the distributions to the expenses, not actually pay the expenses with the distributions. If my stepsons father used his 529 account with my stepson as the beneficiary, and I also d...
- Fri Sep 30, 2022 8:38 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: 529 distribution: question about unique situation
- Replies: 10
- Views: 1276
Re: 529 distribution: question about unique situation
Great answer, thank you!
If my stepson’s father paid some of his rent, does that subtract from the allowable off campus room and board money that I can disburse from the 529? Or is that totally separate and has no bearing on the amount I can disburse from the 529?
If my stepson’s father paid some of his rent, does that subtract from the allowable off campus room and board money that I can disburse from the 529? Or is that totally separate and has no bearing on the amount I can disburse from the 529?
- Fri Sep 30, 2022 3:55 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: 529 distribution: question about unique situation
- Replies: 10
- Views: 1276
529 distribution: question about unique situation
Thanks to the upcoming loan forgiveness, my stepson's federal student loan is going to be forgiven.
He has another "loan" that he received from his grandfather on his father's side. He want us to pay off that loan with our 529 funds since the federal loan is being forgiven. Is this allowed? My initial thought is that this would not be eligible for a 529 distribution since this is a person and not an institution that loaned the money for his tuition.
He has another "loan" that he received from his grandfather on his father's side. He want us to pay off that loan with our 529 funds since the federal loan is being forgiven. Is this allowed? My initial thought is that this would not be eligible for a 529 distribution since this is a person and not an institution that loaned the money for his tuition.
- Fri Sep 30, 2022 1:55 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Is "Stay The Course" dead?
- Replies: 416
- Views: 48088
Re: Is "Stay The Course" dead?
And yet the S&P500 is up 41.65% over the last 5 years.
https://www.google.com/search?q=s%26p+5 ... e&ie=UTF-8
https://www.google.com/search?q=s%26p+5 ... e&ie=UTF-8
- Fri Jul 29, 2022 4:40 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Are Current Rates On Bonds Telling Us Something?
- Replies: 41
- Views: 5795
Re: Are Current Rates On Bonds Telling Us Something?
Capital investors think that in the short term we have interest rate risk, but in the long term they think interest rates will stay flat or decline. Capital needs to go somewhere, and the safest place to go is longer term US treasuries.Van wrote: ↑Fri Jul 29, 2022 4:29 pm It just seems to me that if I'm going to give my money to someone for 5 years or 10 years or more, I should get a much higher return for tying my money up for a longer period of time than if I only give them the money for 1 year. Think about inflation, and is there not something called the time value of money? Perhaps I'm just naive and just don't understand how bonds and loaning money works. Highly possible.
- Thu Jul 21, 2022 10:17 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: What 3 things have you done to anticipate the recession?
- Replies: 164
- Views: 23668
Re: What 3 things have you done to anticipate the recession?
1. Took a job role that is "anti-fragile" in that it gets more desirable during recessions
2. Established backup: Set aside some savings, several credit cards, enough Bonds and fixed income in my retirement accounts that I can pull on as a last resort
3. Came to an agreement with my wife that we never sell assets during a crash or bear market
2. Established backup: Set aside some savings, several credit cards, enough Bonds and fixed income in my retirement accounts that I can pull on as a last resort
3. Came to an agreement with my wife that we never sell assets during a crash or bear market
- Mon Jul 18, 2022 5:03 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: How can I take advantage of the strong dollar to build wealth?
- Replies: 9
- Views: 1767
Re: How can I take advantage of the strong dollar to build wealth?
As with all investing, it is hard to know the future
So now might be a great time to invest in an international index due to the stronger dollar. But if the dollar continues to strengthen it might not be a good time to invest I would just buy some international if your building your portfolio and you want more international exposure. I wouldn't look at it as a market timing move, but rather a decent entry point into building out your long term portfolio.
So now might be a great time to invest in an international index due to the stronger dollar. But if the dollar continues to strengthen it might not be a good time to invest I would just buy some international if your building your portfolio and you want more international exposure. I wouldn't look at it as a market timing move, but rather a decent entry point into building out your long term portfolio.
- Sat Jul 16, 2022 11:11 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Commodities never belonged in your portfolio
- Replies: 253
- Views: 21846
Re: Commodities never belonged in your portfolio
You buy and hold them as portfolio diversifiers. While stocks cratered oil and commodities skyrocketed. Now they are coming down some, but something else will go up. Personally I think it’s a great time to own everything lol.
- Wed Jul 13, 2022 1:38 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: one euro = one dollar what does this mean
- Replies: 61
- Views: 5524
Re: one euro = one dollar what does this mean
People seem to care but I have no idea, so I am asking. What's happening with the yen and the euro sounds like dollar milkshake theory in action. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2qTOWuL7Zco It definitely means more pain for the eurozone which is likely to be reflected in their stock market. The presentation is from 3 years ago. The presenter is active on twitter. https://twitter.com/SantiagoAuFund He has been taking the opposite bet of Peter Schiff who says the $ will fall. I've thought a little bit about this milkshake theory, and the part I don't think it accounts for is that non-US businesses that export to the US will be able to charge a higher price for their goods and services because of the stronger dollar of the US consumer. That s...
- Wed Jul 13, 2022 1:33 pm
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Any good areas in southern/coastal CA for a hobby farm?
- Replies: 12
- Views: 1632
Re: Any good areas in southern/coastal CA for a hobby farm?
Not cheap, but these homes have a bit of acreage for a small farm. It's very nice.
https://www.lacresta.com/
Or you could consider growing grapes in the Temecula California wine country. Again, not cheap, but nice.
https://www.lacresta.com/
Or you could consider growing grapes in the Temecula California wine country. Again, not cheap, but nice.
- Wed Jul 13, 2022 1:29 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Mortgage as a negative bond...Don't pay down mortgage early...House is not a bond
- Replies: 238
- Views: 23019
Re: Mortgage negative bond...Don't pay down mortgage early...House is not a bond
I really enjoyed and agreed with this response. Well said Invest4!invest4 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 13, 2022 1:00 pm
Based upon the information you have provided:
* Pay your mortgage per schedule
- Provides liquidity / options
- Hedge against inflation
- Offers leverage to enable further investment
During the accumulation phase, I believe it is advantageous to have a mortgage for the reasons above and pay it back with inflated dollars.
For myself...in particular....
- Mon Jul 11, 2022 4:16 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Mortgage as a negative bond...Don't pay down mortgage early...House is not a bond
- Replies: 238
- Views: 23019
Re: Mortgage negative bond...Don't pay down mortgage early...House is not a bond
Mortgages are leveraged. Let’s say you don’t prepay any of it. Then when it comes time to sell, you’re swapping a low rate for a high rate on a much larger debt then if you had prepaid down some of it. Now, you could have invested that money, but other than bonds held to maturity, there is no guarantee of a future return that exceeds your mortgage rate. Now, once treasuries yield get high enough to be greater than your mortgage rate after taxes, then the decision is more simple. But you have to perfectly time the bond duration to when you expect to sell at some point in the future. Mortgages don't have margin calls, so it is different. You also need to factor in interest tax deductions. So the "guaranteed" return doesn't need to ...
- Mon Jul 11, 2022 1:26 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: I'm not sure why stock market will continue to go up
- Replies: 154
- Views: 16885
Re: I'm not sure why stock market will continue to go up
Oh it will go up. We just don't know if it will nominally exceed the rate of inflation.jebmke wrote: ↑Mon Jul 11, 2022 8:03 amTime for a soft or hard re-balance?livesoft wrote: ↑Mon Jul 11, 2022 8:00 amWe need lots more posts and posters like the above. I'm starting to smell Capitulation in the streets.halivingston wrote: ↑Sun Jul 10, 2022 9:41 pm I'm becoming very skeptical of the stock market. Instead of throwing theories at me, please try to argue/discuss why I'm wrong.
- Mon Jul 11, 2022 1:24 pm
- Forum: Non-US Investing
- Topic: Sell investments to refill the emergency fund?
- Replies: 35
- Views: 3652
Re: Sell investments to refill the emergency fund?
You could also get a 0% intro APR credit card for like 12 months. Then you could put current expenses on that credit card and defer paying it off until near the 12 month mark. That saved cash could be used to fill your emergency fund. If you are unable to pay back the credit card, you could always tap into the emergency fund. But hopefully you can payoff the credit card using cash flow during months 6-12.
So months 1-6: put expenses on credit card and use cash to fill emergency fund
Months 6-12: pay off credit card with cash flow
The problem with waiting to get the 0% APR credit card in the event of an emergency, is that if you lose your job or something you might not be eligible for the credit card.
So months 1-6: put expenses on credit card and use cash to fill emergency fund
Months 6-12: pay off credit card with cash flow
The problem with waiting to get the 0% APR credit card in the event of an emergency, is that if you lose your job or something you might not be eligible for the credit card.
- Mon Jul 11, 2022 1:08 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Mortgage as a negative bond...Don't pay down mortgage early...House is not a bond
- Replies: 238
- Views: 23019
Re: Mortgage negative bond...Don't pay down mortgage early...House is not a bond
I'm definitely not an expert in this, but it seems to me that if you have a low fixed mortgage you should defer as much to paying off the mortgage as long as possible so as to pay it back with less valuable future dollars. That's if you expect inflation to run higher than average over the next decade or infinitum. If you anticipate a deflationary or low inflation future, then possibly paying off the mortgage early makes sense. With the central bank fiat currency system with massive government deb obligations we have in place, I am betting on high average future inflation. I fully expect that in 20 years my fixed mortgage payment is going to seem like a joke. You’re assuming you’ll be in the same home for twenty years. True. I am. But if I ...
- Mon Jul 11, 2022 12:51 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Mortgage as a negative bond...Don't pay down mortgage early...House is not a bond
- Replies: 238
- Views: 23019
Re: Mortgage negative bond...Don't pay down mortgage early...House is not a bond
I'm definitely not an expert in this, but it seems to me that if you have a low fixed mortgage you should defer as much to paying off the mortgage as long as possible so as to pay it back with less valuable future dollars. That's if you expect inflation to run higher than average over the next decade or infinitum. If you anticipate a deflationary or low inflation future, then possibly paying off the mortgage early makes sense. With the central bank fiat currency system with massive government deb obligations we have in place, I am betting on high average future inflation.
I fully expect that in 20 years my fixed mortgage payment is going to seem like a joke.
I fully expect that in 20 years my fixed mortgage payment is going to seem like a joke.
- Thu Jul 07, 2022 4:10 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Strong Dollar vs. foreign currencies
- Replies: 24
- Views: 2534
Re: Strong Dollar vs. foreign currencies
... What's unique about the US is probably oil being priced in USD. Higher energy prices means a higher demand for USD. Turkey has rates of 14% but is not attract to invest and the currency is dropping hard. So higher rates and a strengthening currency make the USD attractive. In terms of global stability, the yen used to be a haven. However, the difference in rates and probably the effect of oil are not making it a haven today. The euro is certainly lower on stability concerns but that doesn't explain the SHARP loss in the yen. It's due to rate differentials meaning a higher yield and the USD strength likely related to demand for the currency to buy energy. This is my guess and what I've read at least. Good point about the rising cost of ...
- Thu Jul 07, 2022 4:04 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: in shock over loss of money in 403(b)
- Replies: 131
- Views: 16867
Re: in shock over loss of money in 403(b)
Do you own a home? If so, look at the increase in your equity and compare that to the $22K loss.
It's important to diversify.
It's important to diversify.
- Thu Jul 07, 2022 3:23 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Strong Dollar vs. foreign currencies
- Replies: 24
- Views: 2534
Re: Strong Dollar vs. foreign currencies
Looks like some of the European interest rates are somewhat comparable to the current US 10-yr of 3%. I think the European countries higher than 3% are riskier and thus providing a higher yield (Italy & Greece).
Japan is .256%
Japan is .256%
- Thu Jul 07, 2022 3:07 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Strong Dollar vs. foreign currencies
- Replies: 24
- Views: 2534
Re: Strong Dollar vs. foreign currencies
Perhaps it is simply that the inflation here, while not so great, is not so bad as the inflation elsewhere. Yea, I am thinking this simple explanation is perhaps the best. Even though US interest rates are low, they are still the best option in the developed world. And people need to stash their cash somewhere. So inflation will continue to cause Real (not nominal) losses in bonds, but the losses for US bonds are not as bad as Real losses in foreign bonds. Domestically (US), a stronger dollar will mean greater purchasing power for imports, and will thus damper some of the CPI rise, which means US dollars will flow out form US consumers to foreign country exporters. And then those foreign countries send it back to buy our bonds and financia...
- Thu Jul 07, 2022 2:57 pm
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Help…Mosquito Madness! Summer is Here.
- Replies: 62
- Views: 6458
Re: Help…Mosquito Madness! Summer is Here.
Humidity, mosquitoes and gnats bugged me a lot when I lived in Missouri, so I moved to SOCAL. It's not the cheapest option, but it worked.
- Wed Jul 06, 2022 4:58 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Strong Dollar vs. foreign currencies
- Replies: 24
- Views: 2534
Re: Strong Dollar vs. foreign currencies
Resources, labor, land, housing. Real stuff.
- Wed Jul 06, 2022 3:42 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Strong Dollar vs. foreign currencies
- Replies: 24
- Views: 2534
Strong Dollar vs. foreign currencies
It seems like the dollar is strengthening compared to foreign currencies, but weakening compared to physical assets. I'm trying to wrap my mind around this phenomenon. Perhaps other currencies have devalued and so cash holders in those countries are swapping their currencies for US Dollars? What's going on? And most importantly, how does a strong dollar vs. DXY but weak dollar vs. physical assets mean for our investing?
Thoughts on this?
Thoughts on this?
- Tue Jun 21, 2022 11:08 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Bonds don't seem to hedge against downturns anymore
- Replies: 153
- Views: 17470
Re: Bonds don't seem to hedge against downturns anymore
If you hold on to your bonds they will recover their lost value through the increased yield that is the corresponding component of the fall in their price. The crucial piece missing in that equation, is that if the increased yield , combined with the fall in value, does not keep up with inflation you can still wind up with a large real loss though, correct? And interest rates often rise in times of rising inflation, resulting in falling bond values. That is why many people who want to focus on mitigating risk invest in inflation-protected bonds despite the compromise in yield. That could definitely happen - continued rising rates. Or it might not. Who really can predict? Anyways, bonds for me are more of a deflationary shock absorber; they...
- Mon Jun 20, 2022 8:07 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Bonds don't seem to hedge against downturns anymore
- Replies: 153
- Views: 17470
Re: Bonds don't seem to hedge against downturns anymore
If you hold on to your bonds they will recover their lost value through the increased yield that is the corresponding component of the fall in their price. You have to hold them to maturity, or in the case of a bond fund, to the “duration” of the bond fund.
Stocks have traditionally recovered, but we have no guarantee like we do with bonds.
Stocks have traditionally recovered, but we have no guarantee like we do with bonds.
- Fri Jun 10, 2022 12:25 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Here's how some inflation "hedges" have done so far this year
- Replies: 52
- Views: 5672
Re: Here's how some inflation "hedges" have done so far this year
DBC +45.2% YTD
My House: +15% YTD
Fixed Mortgage: 2.75%
Wage Increase: +4% merit, expecting at least 5% for next year based on company budget plans
Automobiles and RV have gone up in value, as has all furniture and other physical useful items
My House: +15% YTD
Fixed Mortgage: 2.75%
Wage Increase: +4% merit, expecting at least 5% for next year based on company budget plans
Automobiles and RV have gone up in value, as has all furniture and other physical useful items