Search found 135 matches

by HanSolo
Sat Aug 29, 2020 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Winklevoss: The Case for $500,000 Bitcoin
Replies: 349
Views: 23787

Re: Winklevoss: The Case for $500,000 Bitcoin

Why would anyone consider bitcoin to be a "store of value" when nothing in Satoshi Nakamoto's paper says that that was a design goal? I think the answer to this question is a combination of: (a) Nakamoto's paper appears to say or imply that bitcoin is money, (b) money is commonly understo...
by HanSolo
Thu May 28, 2020 7:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe’s Bond Advice - no total bond index
Replies: 195
Views: 17548

Re: Swedroe’s Bond Advice - no total bond index

I believe Bogle wished there was more MBS’s in TBM, I recall Mr. Bogle expressing the opposite (see, for example, the wiki article on "Mortgage-backed security"). Larry specifically says he does not recommend the total bond fund. Instead he suggests treasuries only, short mostly with some...
by HanSolo
Wed May 27, 2020 12:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 10246
Views: 814069

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Regarding my earlier post: ... being the savvy market timer that I am (cough, cough), I decided to become a "dip buyer" below 2800. And that could be the signal that 2800 is a permanent floor now. You read it here first! Starting April 24, 2020, the S&P has closed above 2800 every day....
by HanSolo
Wed May 06, 2020 4:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20708
Views: 2830145

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

At no point have I said I “must” be right. Nice straw man. Wrong. I was responding to your stated position (I took the liberty of assuming "you" means you, and "need to" means "must"): Early in the race I can maybe make it up since less money is at risk. Later in the r...
by HanSolo
Sun May 03, 2020 10:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20708
Views: 2830145

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

What I'm talking about doesn't deviate from buy and hold very much because it isn't the kind of timing that reacts very often to the market trying to "beat the market" for higher gains all the time but rather attempt to avoid eating an extraordinarily huge loss that doesn't happen often v...
by HanSolo
Sat May 02, 2020 9:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20708
Views: 2830145

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Glad to see we finally have a consensus around here! So that settles it. The market is going down. Right? (snip...) If Bogleheads ever reach a total consensus on ANYTHING, it will be a first. For me, watching the stock market movement is kind of like watching a roulette wheel spin. Sometimes you hi...
by HanSolo
Sat May 02, 2020 8:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20708
Views: 2830145

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Glad to see we finally have a consensus around here! So that settles it. The market is going down. Right? (snip...) If Bogleheads ever reach a total consensus on ANYTHING, it will be a first. For me, watching the stock market movement is kind of like watching a roulette wheel spin. Sometimes you hi...
by HanSolo
Sat May 02, 2020 6:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20708
Views: 2830145

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Glad to see we finally have a consensus around here! So that settles it. The market is going down. Right? A little more bad news and maybe we can get back to our regularly scheduled market crash. Bear market rally has probably topped out, Judging by the futures looks like selling at the end of April...
by HanSolo
Thu Apr 30, 2020 5:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 10246
Views: 814069

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Sweden has been open throughout and has done better than Italy and Spain, That's not saying much. Sweden is in the top 15% of countries in terms of cases per 1M population, and in the top 10% (possibly top 5%) of countries in terms of deaths per 1M population (higher death rate than USA). Not exact...
by HanSolo
Thu Apr 30, 2020 3:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best way to transfer money between Vanguard, Fidelity, and Schwab
Replies: 5
Views: 651

Re: Best way to transfer money between Vanguard, Fidelity, and Schwab

mhalley wrote: Thu Apr 30, 2020 12:33 am Perhaps a similar solution could be done at Schwab.
Yes. If you have a checking account at Schwab, then in your Vanguard account, follow the procedure to link a bank account, and fill in your Schwab bank account details there.
by HanSolo
Thu Apr 30, 2020 2:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What explains the continued rise in equities?
Replies: 167
Views: 13267

Re: What explains the continued rise in equities?

The market hates bad news less than it hates uncertainty. April hasn't brought much bad news that wasn't already on the table in March. "Who can explain it? Who can tell you why? Fools give you reasons; wise men never try." --Oscar Hammerstein, "Some Enchanted Evening," from Sout...
by HanSolo
Mon Apr 27, 2020 3:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Taleb Says Portfolios to ‘Blow Up’ Without Tail Hedges
Replies: 43
Views: 4712

Re: Taleb Says Portfolios to ‘Blow Up’ Without Tail Hedges

There is a problem with that strategy as it relies on government being fair with CPI adjustments and not playing games with it. Recent-ish example: https://www.reuters.com/article/argentina-economy-cpi/new-argentine-cpi-to-adjust-inflation-linked-bonds-report-idUSN1820667020110418 The above article...
by HanSolo
Sat Apr 25, 2020 1:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 10246
Views: 814069

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Stocks will finish the day negative after the Gilead news - disaster for the greedy bulls! SPX not worth buying above 2,000. While I agree with the 2000 statement, the Fed has created a backstop for stocks. If you see the market as overvalued due to Fed support, you might have to stay out of stocks...
by HanSolo
Fri Apr 24, 2020 3:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.
Replies: 151
Views: 15221

Re: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.

... in real world I live in, there isn't even a hint of current or delayed deflation on the horizon, quite the opposite. Let's take a look. (snip...) Can some real person respond and let me know where and how one has to live to experience "deflation everywhere"? Good question. There have ...
by HanSolo
Fri Apr 24, 2020 2:36 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: VUSD vs VWRD [Vanguard S&P 500 vs. FTSE All World] [Hong Kong]
Replies: 10
Views: 897

Re: VUSD vs VWRD [Vanguard S&P 500 vs. FTSE All World] [Hong Kong]

Yes, there is no with holding tax treatment between US and HK, so the fund has to pay 30% with holding tax for US stocks; vs for Irish funds (VUSD) the tax rate is 15%. Plus 3140 only gives out ~1.1% dividend, vs VUSD or VOO gives ~2.2% This is unclear... you said "no withholding tax treatment...
by HanSolo
Fri Apr 24, 2020 1:30 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: VUSD vs VWRD [Vanguard S&P 500 vs. FTSE All World] [Hong Kong]
Replies: 10
Views: 897

Re: VUSD vs VWRD [Vanguard S&P 500 vs. FTSE All World] [Hong Kong]

Vanguard has an S&P 500 fund that trades in HK (ticker is 3140, 83140, or 9140, depending on what currency you use to invest).

Expense ratio is 0.18%.

I don't know what the advantage is over VUSD. Maybe tax treatment?
by HanSolo
Tue Apr 21, 2020 8:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: getting deposit from US pension internationally
Replies: 4
Views: 430

Re: getting deposit from US pension internationally

I'm not sure this will work, but you might try calling Schwab (international.schwab.com). I'm guessing that if you open an account that includes checking, you'll get a US-based routing number, which may be all you need to receive the direct deposits. Another advantage of Schwab is they reimburse ATM...
by HanSolo
Mon Apr 20, 2020 10:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.
Replies: 151
Views: 15221

Re: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.

Can someone please tell me when I can expect my property taxes, homeowners insurance, health insurance, healthcare bills, car insurance, and college bills to deflate? I have seen significant inflation over the last 12 months, ranging from 5% to 30% depending on item. And I shop around! Deflation is...
by HanSolo
Mon Apr 20, 2020 2:26 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I'm out [of the market]
Replies: 109
Views: 12172

Re: I'm out [of the market]

Another topic were the OP went AWOL. Correct. But I'll chime in anyway. - If you want total protection, take those monies and spread them out over 10 FDIC Insured Financial Institutions or NCUA Insured Credit Unions. A Short-Term Treasury fund would be pretty safe too, I think. If it were me, and t...
by HanSolo
Sun Apr 19, 2020 11:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Munger/Buffett on riding out the storm
Replies: 76
Views: 10843

Re: Munger/Buffett on riding out the storm

Sound like he thinks this time it might be different. That's my interpretation of his comments as well. I don't remember Buffett or Munger ever saying before they were reluctant to buy when there was blood in the streets or when others were fearful. What's different this time is that people are tal...
by HanSolo
Sun Apr 19, 2020 11:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does "Quantitative Easing" Lead to Higher Inflation?
Replies: 87
Views: 6174

Re: Does "Quantitative Easing" Lead to Higher Inflation?

Our greatest virtue as a country is that we are the least dirty shirt in the laundry hamper. It would be interesting if "dirty" could be quantified. Perhaps one way is debt-to-GDP ratio. On that score, the US is dirtier (having a higher ratio) than most other countries ( https://worldpopu...
by HanSolo
Sat Apr 18, 2020 3:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Coronavirus Movie Suggestions
Replies: 104
Views: 7264

Re: Coronavirus Movie Suggestions

A Boy and His Dog (1975), starring a young Don Johnson (Miami Vice, Nash Bridges). "A young man and his telepathic dog wander a post-apocalyptic wasteland." Also, Logan's Run (1976). "An idyllic science fiction future has one major drawback: life must end at the age of thirty." L...
by HanSolo
Mon Apr 13, 2020 1:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's behind huge layoffs at unicorns?
Replies: 81
Views: 7976

Re: What's behind huge layoffs at unicorns?

how can only a few weeks of business slump and gloomy forecasts for next few quarters compel these "valuable" companies to cut themselves in half? When I worked in the corporate sector, I got the impression that some companies use downturns as an excuse to selectively get rid of staff tha...
by HanSolo
Mon Apr 13, 2020 12:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Citi website
Replies: 22
Views: 1634

Re: Citi website

They changed their login page address. If you go to the one you have always gone to it gives this message. Go to online.citi.com (I think this is it, sorry on my mobile) and it works Bzzzt, wrong answer. I just tried it, same result. As I explained above, if they don't like your IP, the login fails.
by HanSolo
Sun Apr 12, 2020 7:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Conservative investor - Dividend Index Fund
Replies: 21
Views: 2131

Re: Conservative investor - Dividend Index Fund

I'm under the impression that dividend paying stocks are usually bigger companies which are kind of stable. That's what I thought too. Then this bear market proved me wrong. What we've seen this year so far, at especially at the market lows, is that a lot of the dividend funds and value funds dropp...
by HanSolo
Sun Apr 12, 2020 7:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Citi website
Replies: 22
Views: 1634

Re: Citi website

Former Citi employee of years ago. Ever since they merged with Travelers to become Citigroup, and their MIT educated CEO John Reed was forced out, it has been all downhill for them. (details skipped...) This is a bank that has gone downhill, technologically, and now you can't speak to a human since...
by HanSolo
Sat Apr 11, 2020 10:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Modern Monetary Theory
Replies: 97
Views: 7013

Re: Modern Monetary Theory

Remember relativity in Physics? If you are in an 80 mile/hr car, and another car is driving alongside at 80 mile/hr as well, it would feel as if you are standing still if you use that other car as reference of motion. It's been a long time since I studied physics, but I thought the above phenomenon...
by HanSolo
Sat Apr 11, 2020 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Total Bond and not Treasuries?
Replies: 167
Views: 16687

Re: Why Total Bond and not Treasuries?

Mr. Bogle was heard to say that TBM had the problem of having too much in Treasuries, Can anyone provide a reference to where Bogle said that? I do recall a quote of him saying TBM was too heavy in GNMAs, which are Federally-backed, but those aren't Treasuries. And that leads me to wonder, those wh...
by HanSolo
Sat Apr 11, 2020 1:03 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Probability question
Replies: 26
Views: 2901

Re: Probability question

mega317 wrote: Sat Apr 11, 2020 12:29 am But the probability of getting any other pick besides #1 isn't (11/12)^3.
Are you talking about the probability of failing, in all 3 years, to draw #1?

Or the probability of failing, at least once during the 3 years, to draw #1?
by HanSolo
Thu Apr 09, 2020 10:38 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Complete amateur with advisor problems
Replies: 21
Views: 1906

Re: Complete amateur with advisor problems

I know it’s untidy and a mess and I wish I knew more which is one of the reasons I went to a financial planner I might ask Vanguard for assistance in tidying this up and consolidations some accounts Thoughts? I think you're on the right track. A good starting point for learning more (especially to ...
by HanSolo
Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:57 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: All in one vs Separate fund
Replies: 60
Views: 3612

Re: All in one vs Separate fund

Thank you for all the replies. Before all your help, I bought $10,000 worth of lifestrategy mod growth fund. It has grown to about $10,300. As discussed above, going forward I am going to invest in ETFs instead. Should I sell the lifestrategy funds and buy $10,300 worth of ETFs asap (same portfolio...
by HanSolo
Sun Apr 05, 2020 6:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: So what are you cooking
Replies: 325
Views: 24437

Re: So what are you cooking

I don't know how to cook, and I live in a hotel. So, no cooking here.

I go out for food. Many restaurants are closed, but some still have take-out. Grocery stores and 7-11 have some prepared foods and microwave meals.

Just wanted to make sure an alternate view is represented. Cheers....
by HanSolo
Fri Apr 03, 2020 11:06 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Best 5-10yr Investments?
Replies: 5
Views: 619

Re: Best 5-10yr Investments?

I think this is what conservatively-positioned balanced funds are for, e.g., earlier-dated Target Retirement funds (including Target Retirement Income), LifeStrategy Income, LifeStrategy Conservative Growth, Wellesley Income, or Global Wellesley Income. If you want to be more aggressive, then look a...
by HanSolo
Wed Apr 01, 2020 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your age/AA during this crisis?
Replies: 138
Views: 6787

Re: What is your age/AA during this crisis?

I think I’m looking to see just how much of a scaredy cat I’ve become. I'm the scaredy cat (or was, anyway). I was scared of the valuation levels. As I wrote last year: I've been doing "scaredy-cat" asset allocation (being grossly underexposed to equities for a long time due to a persiste...
by HanSolo
Tue Mar 31, 2020 9:22 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tipping in new reality?
Replies: 80
Views: 4821

Re: Tipping in new reality?

Anybody providing a service/product right now that has skin in the game and also could potentially see their income dry up tomorrow; mail carriers (no), FedEx guy (no), grocery store cashier (maybe), bus driver (no), pick up/delivery at locally restaurant (yes). FedEx never has staff reductions? I ...
by HanSolo
Tue Mar 31, 2020 8:31 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tipping in new reality?
Replies: 80
Views: 4821

Re: Tipping in new reality?

Right now I am tipping pretty heavily across the board (minimum 30%). Is there anyone not included in "across the board"? Someone mentioned mail carriers. Do you tip them, and the FedEx guy, and the grocery store cashier, and the bus driver? (I don't, but that's just me, I guess.) I'm not...
by HanSolo
Mon Mar 30, 2020 11:32 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is the coronavirus stay-at-home experience a preview of retirement life?
Replies: 61
Views: 4401

Re: Is the coronavirus stay-at-home experience a preview of retirement life?

You misunderstood me. I agree with you, actually. Isolation is a problem which is not easy to solve in old age, which is one of the reasons I don't believe in retiring unless you really have to, or you really hate your profession. Yes, I re-read it and got your meaning, and edited my post. Again, j...
by HanSolo
Mon Mar 30, 2020 11:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is the coronavirus stay-at-home experience a preview of retirement life?
Replies: 61
Views: 4401

Re: Is the coronavirus stay-at-home experience a preview of retirement life?

He should get a job and have kids while retired? Can you really make those changes? :wink: As they say, getting old is not for the faint of heart. Yes, changing one's life structure after retirement may be challenging. You've isolated yourself. If you wish you had some of those kinds of things goin...
by HanSolo
Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me understand this market--or How can S&P be 2600 today?
Replies: 109
Views: 9538

Re: Help me understand this market--or How can S&P be 2600 today?

Given that the monetary injections get more massive with each crisis, we can easily image that, as long as the trend continues, we'll see the above numbers happen during this century. Indeed. If you project 3% real GDP growth and 2% inflation out for the rest of the century, then US GDP will be aro...
by HanSolo
Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:39 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is the coronavirus stay-at-home experience a preview of retirement life?
Replies: 61
Views: 4401

Re: Is the coronavirus stay-at-home experience a preview of retirement life?

Glockenspiel wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:18 pm I hope I’m not working remotely while also taking care of 2 young kids at the same time, while I’m retired!
Be careful what you wish for. Later on, if you're retired and isolated, you might wish you had some of those kinds of things going on.
by HanSolo
Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:15 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is the coronavirus stay-at-home experience a preview of retirement life?
Replies: 61
Views: 4401

Re: Is the coronavirus stay-at-home experience a preview of retirement life?

Is this a preview of retirement life? Yes, or so I have found. As a retired person, I've been more or less a recluse, and the current situation isn't much different for me. Is that due to need, or desire? You never gather with groups of friends? Never eat in restaurants? Never go to a movie or play...
by HanSolo
Mon Mar 30, 2020 5:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me understand this market--or How can S&P be 2600 today?
Replies: 109
Views: 9538

Re: Help me understand this market--or How can S&P be 2600 today?

The market is recovering from its initial shock, and expects (rightly, apparently) that the Plunge Protection Team will spend whatever it takes to minimize additional losses. The above seems as good an answer as any to the OP's question. One should also realize that, at 2600, the market has only go...
by HanSolo
Mon Mar 30, 2020 5:04 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is the coronavirus stay-at-home experience a preview of retirement life?
Replies: 61
Views: 4401

Re: Is the coronavirus stay-at-home experience a preview of retirement life?

Is this a preview of retirement life? Yes, or so I have found. As a retired person, I've been more or less a recluse, and the current situation isn't much different for me. It's not that I want to be isolated, I've just found that people are usually "too busy." It's OK for me, because I'm...
by HanSolo
Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:38 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why did some asserts with stand market drop?
Replies: 6
Views: 679

Re: Why did some asserts with stand market drop?

Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond (VCSH) Sometimes different things happen during different "flight to quality" episodes (for example, gold going up, or down, or whipsaw like over the past few weeks). VCSH, during the past couple weeks, was a lot more volatile than VGSH, and that's becau...
by HanSolo
Sun Mar 29, 2020 7:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I thought I had it all figured out....advice please
Replies: 42
Views: 5437

Re: I thought I had it all figured out....advice please

Any advice? This one's pretty good: 100% Lifestrategy Moderate Growth ... then go back on that bike ride. Personally, I decided on Balanced Index (VBIAX). Three-fund is also good, if you don't mind rebalancing (and do it faithfully, according to your plan). Any of the above will cut out all the iss...
by HanSolo
Sun Mar 29, 2020 7:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why did some asserts with stand market drop?
Replies: 6
Views: 679

Re: Why did some asserts with stand market drop?

RIMDBogle wrote: Sun Mar 29, 2020 4:23 pm Curious to know what iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF ( IEF ) .

I find this ETF did not suffer much in this market meltdown.

What are the other ETF/Fund/Stocks fall in this category?
Look up "flight to quality". That will explain a lot.
by HanSolo
Sun Mar 29, 2020 7:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Top 5 choices for 1-fund portfolio
Replies: 8
Views: 953

Re: Top 5 choices for 1-fund portfolio

If you could only have a 1 fund portfolio what would your personal top 5 choices be to make your final decision from? I commented on that in the other "One-Fund" thread: Admittedly, I'm a slice-and-dicer, but I want to keep things as simple as possible in taxable (as few transactions as p...
by HanSolo
Sun Mar 29, 2020 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where Is The SP 500 Future
Replies: 32
Views: 3160

Re: Where Is The SP 500 Future

MoneyMarathon wrote: Sun Mar 29, 2020 4:59 pm Let's say 20,000.
I don't mind saying S&P reaching 40,000 by 2060 (considering my "doubling every decade" projection).

See you there.
by HanSolo
Sun Mar 29, 2020 6:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: There Is No Gold
Replies: 160
Views: 12663

Re: There Is No Gold

1) The U.S. Fed may have a mandate regarding inflation, but that is not a universal condition placed on entities that issue currency. That's going pretty far afield of the original point. 2) Venezuela was just an example of a currency for which price stability is not expected. Correct. Which is why...
by HanSolo
Sun Mar 29, 2020 4:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where Is The SP 500 Future
Replies: 32
Views: 3160

Re: Where Is The SP 500 Future

That doesn’t double every decade You're right. I was thinking about 2040 for some reason (maybe because 2040 is more likely to be within my lifetime). Well, I'll still give my guesstimate that the index number will roughly double every decade, somehow or another, i.e., we might see 10,000 by 2040. ...