Search found 1090 matches

by z3r0c00l
Mon Jul 09, 2018 5:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Article: Rich kids are counting on inheritance to pay for retirement
Replies: 31
Views: 4492

Re: Article: Rich kids are counting on inheritance to pay for retirement

I was already saving for the future at 16 so let's not say younger kids can't do the right thing. However it isn't that shocking to hear that wealthy kids, who were born in wealth like most wealthy Americans, are counting on inheriting that money later. They will mostly get an easy pathway to a pres...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Jul 09, 2018 5:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Street Smart bonds
Replies: 9
Views: 793

Re: Street Smart bonds

"Notes are a non-deposit investment product. Not FDIC insured. No guarantee. May lose value. StreetShares authorizes bank accounts by using a third party vendor, Plaid." They give precious little information about the fees or how the investment works. It looks like a P2P loan platform that takes adv...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Jul 07, 2018 9:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Trying to hit grand slam with small % portfolio?
Replies: 49
Views: 3225

Re: Trying to hit grand slam with small % portfolio?

DanMahowny wrote:
Sat Jul 07, 2018 3:52 pm
Grt2bOutdoors wrote:
Sat Jul 07, 2018 2:54 pm
DanMahowny wrote:
Sat Jul 07, 2018 2:44 pm
I took $70,000 and shorted TSLA stock
How’s that working out?
Good. Sold short at $355 and $365. TSLA closed at $308 yesterday.

On it's way to $0.
How quickly does it have to decline to counter the cost of borrowing shares?
by z3r0c00l
Tue Jul 03, 2018 6:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is now a good time to buy my way into a proper bond alloc?
Replies: 10
Views: 589

Re: Is now a good time to buy my way into a proper bond alloc?

Absolutely the right thing to do, and the right time is as soon as possible. I increase my bond holding percentage every 5 years by 5%. Recently bumped up the 401K after turning 35. If buying bonds was okay 5 years ago, it is better today. They are a better investment now than they were recently, a...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Jul 03, 2018 6:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is now a good time to buy my way into a proper bond alloc?
Replies: 10
Views: 589

Re: Is now a good time to buy my way into a proper bond alloc?

Absolutely the right thing to do, and the right time is as soon as possible. I increase my bond holding percentage every 5 years by 5%. Recently bumped up the 401K after turning 35. If buying bonds was okay 5 years ago, it is better today. They are a better investment now than they were recently, al...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Jul 02, 2018 8:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Expected returns for 80/20 stock bond for next 10 years.
Replies: 169
Views: 12069

Re: Expected returns for 80/20 stock bond for next 10 years.

I would put a bet down on the range between -50 and +100%. Wouldn't trust a prediction more specific than that.
by z3r0c00l
Mon Jul 02, 2018 7:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: bonds or bond funds?
Replies: 39
Views: 2254

Re: bonds or bond funds?

so my 401k contributions go into a stock fund. Since bond funds can lose money, I shy away from them. Just to be clear, you avoid bond funds because they sometimes lose a few percent per year and put all your money into stock funds which have lost 25% in one day on two occasions, and can easily dro...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Jul 02, 2018 6:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dumped my last stock
Replies: 11
Views: 2687

Re: Dumped my last stock

TSLA is great but this way, you can own all the car companies around the world. As long as the industry as a whole does well, you benefit. No need to pick horses since you are betting simply that some horses will make it to the finish line.
by z3r0c00l
Mon Jul 02, 2018 6:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do you own just 5% of anything?
Replies: 65
Views: 4720

Re: Do you own just 5% of anything?

Russell 2000 small cap, 5% of 401K which is less than 2.5% of total. Forced to combine a mix of market cap specific funds to approximate total US stock market and international. EM at 10% of 401K, for example.
by z3r0c00l
Mon Jul 02, 2018 6:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Hedge funds basically scams?
Replies: 36
Views: 3078

Re: Are Hedge funds basically scams?

It is no coincidence that Madoff used the idea of a hedge fund for cover. Hedge funds are where the wealthy go to feel like they are beating the market and the unsophisticated little guy through access to something special. It would be more infuriating if they were not ripping off people who are alr...
by z3r0c00l
Sun Jul 01, 2018 5:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Using the Total Bond Fund in a rising rate environment
Replies: 72
Views: 8627

Re: Using the Total Bond Fund in a rising rate environment

... because the fund buys and sells bonds. If a bond falls in price, the fund might sell that bond, and buy a new bond with a higher coupon rate at par. The new bond will thus pay more dividends, but will not rise back in price unless rates fall. Do bond fund managers know that holding a bond to ma...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Jun 30, 2018 9:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Using the Total Bond Fund in a rising rate environment
Replies: 72
Views: 8627

Re: Using the Total Bond Fund in a rising rate environment

The slightly depressed NAV will not go back up unless interest rates drop again. The increase in income should overcome this drop in NAV in time. A good review of the process linked below.

viewtopic.php?t=235345
by z3r0c00l
Sat Jun 30, 2018 7:30 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Feel like I'm sinking money into international
Replies: 100
Views: 10763

Re: Feel like I'm sinking money into international

The difference in performance is strong evidence in favor of holding international. If they did about the same, I would question the need for international. Keeping to global market cap is one of the few things keeping me okay with US stock valuations right now.
by z3r0c00l
Fri Jun 29, 2018 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Using the Total Bond Fund in a rising rate environment
Replies: 72
Views: 8627

Re: Using the Total Bond Fund in a rising rate environment

Just a quick reminder, but the worst ever DAY for US stocks was almost 10 times worse than the worst YEAR for this kind of bond fund. The volatility and risk is almost insignificant compared to stocks. The only real concern I have is bonds losing to unexpected, high inflation. And short bonds or CD...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Jun 29, 2018 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Using the Total Bond Fund in a rising rate environment
Replies: 72
Views: 8627

Re: Using the Total Bond Fund in a rising rate environment

Just a quick reminder, but the worst ever DAY for US stocks was almost 10 times worse than the worst YEAR for this kind of bond fund. The volatility and risk is almost insignificant compared to stocks. The only real concern I have is bonds losing to unexpected, high inflation. And short bonds or CDs...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Jun 29, 2018 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Using the Total Bond Fund in a rising rate environment
Replies: 72
Views: 8627

Re: Using the Total Bond Fund in a rising rate environment

"That is an absolute guarantee." Then I assume he is shorting long-term bonds? Yes rising interest rates may continue, I might even argue the odds are better than 50/50 of that. But it is not a guarantee at all. And the bond fund has already lost NAV, and is already paying more. It may not have bee...
by z3r0c00l
Wed Jun 27, 2018 5:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Keeping up with inflation
Replies: 24
Views: 1850

Re: Keeping up with inflation

I-bonds. Just about the only 100% safe investment that is guaranteed to keep pace, or nearly so, with inflation year in, year out. Liquid after 1 year, no penalty after 5. And they won't lose nominal value in the event of deflation either.
by z3r0c00l
Wed Jun 27, 2018 5:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I-Bond Logistics
Replies: 14
Views: 1829

Re: I-Bond Logistics

I also prefer tidy investing with fewer lots. Don't really feel that $1000 is worth the effort and so I just buy one $10,000 bond per year.
by z3r0c00l
Tue Jun 26, 2018 6:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing $1000 into VTSMX ETFs - Good Idea?
Replies: 21
Views: 1055

Re: Investing $1000 into VTSMX ETFs - Good Idea?

I personally wouldn't do any investing until I had enough to buy a mutual fund, e.g. $3000, to spare. The reason why is I like to keep a healthy emergency fund around. When first starting out, I built up a solid $12,000 in a CD and savings account before even thinking about investing.
by z3r0c00l
Sat Jun 23, 2018 8:15 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is this all investing is?
Replies: 38
Views: 3771

Re: Is this all investing is?

Travel to other parts of the country/world. It will change your outlook on life.
by z3r0c00l
Wed Jun 20, 2018 6:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bogleheads smarter than the bond market?
Replies: 40
Views: 4321

Re: Are Bogleheads smarter than the bond market?

Total bond now paying 3.12%, perfectly happy with that. Anyone pretending to know future rate changes is delusional. 5 year CDs are a valid alternative but hardly a free lunch and rather illiquid.
by z3r0c00l
Mon Jun 11, 2018 5:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dividend Buffer
Replies: 24
Views: 2310

Re: Dividend Buffer

SP500 dividend yield is actually below the rate of inflation. While that statement might be true, what matters is whether the rate of increase in dividends exceeds the rate of inflation. Historically speaking, it has. Though I haven't seen any studies, I would suspect the dividend growth rate is hi...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Jun 08, 2018 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dividend Buffer
Replies: 24
Views: 2310

Re: Dividend Buffer

Dividends have fallen considerably in the last few decades, due to some extent on tax policy that makes buybacks more attractive. SP500 dividend yield is actually below the rate of inflation. This withdrawal rate is so conservative that even a conservative like myself thinks you will deprive yoursel...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Jun 08, 2018 7:45 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Funds
Replies: 7
Views: 790

Re: Bond Funds

A quick and depressing reminder: you won't grow 3% after taxes and inflation. (2018 inflation likely to be around 2.6%.) If anything, expect to about break even after taxes and inflation. Low risk - low return is in effect here. A 5 year CD will give you 3% without volatility, an intermediate bond f...
by z3r0c00l
Tue May 29, 2018 10:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What do you guys do on the side?
Replies: 299
Views: 30081

Re: The Side Hustle

I work in online education on the graduate level in my field. Amounts to about an extra $1000 per month in a good year. Online education is great because you can contribute to it at any time when you are free, could be late at night, early mornings. And helping to shape the minds of the next generat...
by z3r0c00l
Wed May 23, 2018 7:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Typical interest rate earned by target date funds in retirement?
Replies: 28
Views: 2071

Re: Typical interest rate earned by target date funds in retirement?

Is there a common interest rate that people use once they enter retirement and begin drawing retirement? For instance, would a target date earn 3% interest once it reaches the target date (on average, over 30 years)? Interest isn't really the right term. You have price appreciation and dividends (w...
by z3r0c00l
Tue May 22, 2018 5:30 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Total Bond Market
Replies: 12
Views: 1990

Re: Total Bond Market

The fund becomes more attractive as the yield goes up. You pay a price in lower NAV if you hold during the change. The pros: Low volatility The cons: Low return I think assuming what bonds will do in the future is a losing game. What if interest rates settle out around this level and stay there for ...
by z3r0c00l
Sun May 20, 2018 9:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Re: done with Gmail
Replies: 114
Views: 12378

Re: done with Gmail

Been using Gmail almost from its first day, have a dozen accounts and they all work well, now easy to run them all tabbed as needed. Almost unlimited storage, free, simple, what more does one want? I use outlook for work through MS Office 360. It has the power options we need at a large company. Ano...
by z3r0c00l
Sun May 20, 2018 6:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sub-par options from employer 403b
Replies: 7
Views: 239

Re: Sub-par options from employer 403b

Not to pile on, but I would die for some of these in my 401K. They are 10x cheaper than any of my options. "Vanguard Institutional Index Fund Institutional Shares (VINIX)" is a remarkably cheap fund, institutional class, with a $5 million minimum for individuals. Whoever is picking these funds is ma...
by z3r0c00l
Sun May 20, 2018 6:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: $1,700,000 from family trust...
Replies: 83
Views: 10461

Re: $1,700,000 from family trust...

Congrats on the windfall! I would indeed suggest taking it slow at first, putting the money in a safe place while you decide how to us it. A safe place is a bank account, money market fund, etc. First, I would max out your 401K. Your tax bracket appears poised to go up. Paying down debt is absolutel...
by z3r0c00l
Wed May 16, 2018 7:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: YTD: VBTLX down 2.28%; VBILX down 2.99%; VTSAX down 0.23%
Replies: 106
Views: 10670

Re: YTD: VBTLX down 2.28%; VBILX down 2.99%; VTSAX down 0.23%

I would describe the last few months as "sideways." Boring yes, but nothing to worry about.
by z3r0c00l
Wed May 16, 2018 6:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Friend says "Stock market will crash, invest in silver" - thoughts?
Replies: 127
Views: 8477

Re: Friend says "Stock market will crash, invest in silver" - thoughts?

“Today the world’s gold stock is about 170,000 metric tons. If all of this gold were melded together, it would form a cube of about 68 feet per side. (Picture it fitting comfortably within a baseball infield.) At $1,750 per ounce – gold’s price as I write this – its value would be $9.6 trillion. Cal...
by z3r0c00l
Tue May 15, 2018 6:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good idea investing now in long term funds?
Replies: 57
Views: 4422

Re: Good idea investing now in long term funds?

The yield curve is getting so flat, you are minimally rewarded for even going to intermediate-term bonds, let alone long. I go intermediate, 6 years, for the slightly more than 3% yield but would never go to 10 or 20 years for a few bp more. Having said this, I wouldn't make assumptions about future...
by z3r0c00l
Tue May 15, 2018 6:09 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How can I clear $40-60,000/yr with $1,000,000 cash... Low Risk?
Replies: 71
Views: 10872

Re: How can I clear $40-60,000/yr with $1,000,000 cash... Low Risk?

Everyone touting a bond fund or CD should note that the OP wanted 4 - 5% after tax. Inflation is important to consider too, since inflation is working its way steadily to 3%. The only decent shot at reliably making these returns after tax would be to invest in a mix of stocks and bonds, mostly stock...
by z3r0c00l
Mon May 14, 2018 6:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I decrease my international exposure?
Replies: 8
Views: 971

Re: Should I decrease my international exposure?

Going 100% total U.S gives even higher returns however I am am hesitant to go this route just yet. They just switch back and forth every few years in performance. That is a good argument for owning both, and is the same as the argument in favor of owning the whole US market rather than picking thos...
by z3r0c00l
Sat May 12, 2018 10:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with I bond redemptions
Replies: 1
Views: 417

Re: Help with I bond redemptions

This only makes sense if you plan to pass in the near future. If not, the bonds should be held as long as they serve the purpose you initially got them for. Treasury direct is not so bad that people need to anticipate their own death to avoid dealing with it.
by z3r0c00l
Sat May 12, 2018 8:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond - SEC yield breaks 3%
Replies: 104
Views: 12851

Re: Total Bond - SEC yield breaks 3%

I didn’t state that CDs are mostly defeating inflation (though your claim otherwise is unsubstantiated); I said that it is happening currently. I did not say a EWP was a benefit, obviously the word penalty is present. It’s unfortunate you read me as saying that. What I did say is that it has a bene...
by z3r0c00l
Fri May 11, 2018 7:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond - SEC yield breaks 3%
Replies: 104
Views: 12851

Re: Total Bond - SEC yield breaks 3%

Wrong. My point is that such arguments are fatally flawed if they do not accurately account for the beneficial effects on interest rate risk of the EWP present in many direct CDs. I also corrected some important inaccuracies about the higher yield of the total bond fund relative to CDs; the yield p...
by z3r0c00l
Thu May 10, 2018 7:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: move out of bonds into money market and online savings
Replies: 19
Views: 2789

Re: move out of bonds into money market and online savings

If bonds were attractive when you bought them during the past few years, they are more attractive now. And significantly so in some cases. My monthly bond dividends have almost doubled.

By the way, a balanced bond fund is now down, year to date, about what stocks lose in a single not so great day.
by z3r0c00l
Thu May 10, 2018 7:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond - SEC yield breaks 3%
Replies: 104
Views: 12851

Re: Total Bond - SEC yield breaks 3%

Does this mean that I get 3% dividend if I put money in this fund? ie is it like I get a 3% dividend , just like a cd but better .... but caveat that my principal might go down? This always confuses me ie ... is the yield shown ie 3.00% here .. a genuine firm figure that I can bet the farm on? Not ...
by z3r0c00l
Mon May 07, 2018 7:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond - SEC yield breaks 3%
Replies: 104
Views: 12851

Re: Total Bond - SEC yield breaks 3%

Does this mean that I get 3% dividend if I put money in this fund? ie is it like I get a 3% dividend , just like a cd but better .... but caveat that my principal might go down? This always confuses me ie ... is the yield shown ie 3.00% here .. a genuine firm figure that I can bet the farm on? Not ...
by z3r0c00l
Mon May 07, 2018 6:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Factors Suggesting One Should Buy SPIA
Replies: 90
Views: 6987

Re: Factors Suggesting One Should Buy SPIA

My biggest reason for not planning on using an annuity is a strong pension starting at 55 which, with SS later in life, should cover most expenses. These monthly checks will cover everyday expenses, with 401k and other savings serving to pay for all the good things in retirement.
by z3r0c00l
Fri May 04, 2018 7:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Starting to smell like buying season?
Replies: 55
Views: 6737

Re: Starting to smell like buying season?

greg24 wrote:
Thu May 03, 2018 10:28 am
Still at historically high PE10.

Image
Back down to Black Tuesday levels? Sounds good to me.
by z3r0c00l
Thu May 03, 2018 6:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffet Empire in One Giant Chart
Replies: 11
Views: 3000

Re: Warren Buffet Empire in One Giant Chart

What would a powerful scientist even look like? Edison. He has a lab, hires other scientists to work in his lab (Tesla) Edison was not a research scientist, an inventor and businessman better describes it. He was more like Steve Jobs, to pick a contemporary example. The most powerful and prolific s...
by z3r0c00l
Wed May 02, 2018 6:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffet Empire in One Giant Chart
Replies: 11
Views: 3000

Re: Warren Buffet Empire in One Giant Chart

Is it troubling that a "capital allocator" has so much more power than scientists and engineers Who goes into those fields for power? Science and engineering as a whole wield vast power over civilization, few of those companies would even exist without them, but individuals who seek power need to b...
by z3r0c00l
Tue May 01, 2018 6:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I-bond fixed rate = 0.3%
Replies: 62
Views: 7670

Re: I-bond fixed rate = 0.3%

All those suckers who bought at 0.1% can hang their heads now. :twisted: Does the Treasury disclose how they determine fixed rate? Would love to do a quick interview with the person or team who set this rate to determine what their goals are for the program and what they are seeking, such as a mini...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Apr 27, 2018 8:01 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [Ally online savings now at 1.75%]
Replies: 210
Views: 32173

Re: Ally online savings now at 1.45%

Far better than Chase and Citi, but still lagging inflation significantly.
by z3r0c00l
Wed Apr 25, 2018 7:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unprecedented Event
Replies: 67
Views: 9375

Re: Unprecedented Event

Event like: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_electromagnetic_pulse The US EMP Commission published a rather depressing paper on the affect of a EMP event. I find the scary part is that there wouldn't be a need for mass use of nuclear weapons. And very little physical damage, other than our t...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Apr 24, 2018 8:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Salary Negotiation gone sour
Replies: 98
Views: 10534

Re: Salary Negotiation gone sour

By the way, I got the idea that compromise means what I said it means probably from learning the definition as a child. Gordon Gekko notwithstanding, the word has not substantially changed in meaning. Definition of compromise (Webster - emphasis mine) 1 a : settlement of differences by arbitration ...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Apr 24, 2018 5:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Salary Negotiation gone sour
Replies: 98
Views: 10534

Re: Salary Negotiation gone sour

By the way, I got the idea that compromise means what I said it means probably from learning the definition as a child. Gordon Gekko notwithstanding, the word has not substantially changed in meaning. Definition of compromise (Webster - emphasis mine) 1 a : settlement of differences by arbitration ...