Search found 3772 matches

by z3r0c00l
Thu Mar 28, 2024 7:47 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on Dave Ramsey's Investments
Replies: 12
Views: 938

Re: Thoughts on Dave Ramsey's Investments

Sub-optimal and needlessly complex, befitting a person who has to show that he adds value through advice, but really not that bad. People could do a lot worse than what he is suggesting, and people in his position have given much worse advice. 25% gold, 25% US, 25% Ex US, 25% cash... there are endless combos like this. No one is going to be super unhappy with any of them, even though a single stock and single bond mutual fund most likely going to be cheaper, simpler, and all that one needs. My biggest complaint about growth, value, dividend appreciation, socially responsible, emerging, developed, and sectors is that they are all pretty poorly defined. I don't know that these groups actually exist in nature, and feel as if people are making ...
by z3r0c00l
Thu Mar 28, 2024 7:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boeing (BA) stock: at some point it has to be a bargain
Replies: 197
Views: 19559

Re: Boeing (BA) stock: at some point it has to be a bargain

anagram wrote: Thu Mar 28, 2024 12:09 am
BernardShakey wrote: Thu Mar 28, 2024 12:05 am
z3r0c00l wrote: Wed Mar 27, 2024 4:00 pm
BernardShakey wrote: Wed Mar 27, 2024 12:19 pm
z3r0c00l wrote: Wed Mar 27, 2024 10:52 am Oh for sure it could just go to zero, lots of big stocks have. Stocks that keep falling are never a good deal. They sell barely profitable, wildly expensive and complex products to an industry that is essential, but also barely profitable.
Boeing is up nearly 50% since May 2022. Up and down across that period, obviously, but still up significantly from mid-2022.
Tell me where it will be in 2032, that would be more interesting : )
$406.40 :D
$0.00 after bankruptcy.
Aaaaaand this is why I wouldn't hold more of this stock than the index indicates.
by z3r0c00l
Wed Mar 27, 2024 6:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How would you change my 401k?
Replies: 46
Views: 1672

Re: Starting to regret hiring Facet

rich126 wrote: Wed Mar 27, 2024 6:13 pm
If you are young put it all in VIIIX. If older then add in the VBTIX bond fund.
This is all that needs to be said on the topic. Imagine paying someone when you just had to pick the cheapest stock fund and cheapest bond fund by reading a list of expenses! Lessons learned, you will move on smarter and stronger from here. Many of us did something similar early on.
by z3r0c00l
Wed Mar 27, 2024 4:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boeing (BA) stock: at some point it has to be a bargain
Replies: 197
Views: 19559

Re: Boeing (BA) stock: at some point it has to be a bargain

BernardShakey wrote: Wed Mar 27, 2024 12:19 pm
z3r0c00l wrote: Wed Mar 27, 2024 10:52 am Oh for sure it could just go to zero, lots of big stocks have. Stocks that keep falling are never a good deal. They sell barely profitable, wildly expensive and complex products to an industry that is essential, but also barely profitable.
Boeing is up nearly 50% since May 2022. Up and down across that period, obviously, but still up significantly from mid-2022.
Tell me where it will be in 2032, that would be more interesting : )
by z3r0c00l
Wed Mar 27, 2024 10:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boeing (BA) stock: at some point it has to be a bargain
Replies: 197
Views: 19559

Re: Boeing (BA) stock: at some point it has to be a bargain

Oh for sure it could just go to zero, lots of big stocks have. Stocks that keep falling are never a good deal. They sell barely profitable, wildly expensive and complex products to an industry that is essential, but also barely profitable.
by z3r0c00l
Tue Mar 26, 2024 7:38 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Advice for 29 year old daughter
Replies: 32
Views: 2806

Re: Advice for 29 year old daughter

Live in or sell the condo when its time to leave home. Max out the 401K which is feasible on 80K outside of a horrendous cost of living area. I recommend 20% bonds increasing every 5 years by 5% until she hits 50/50 around age 60. Depends entirely on individual circumstances, financial condition, SWAN factors, etc. I'm in low to mid 70s across the board: age, % equities, % of equities in US, which I view as a conservative allocation for our situation. Honestly I think it is worse than all that, there is no correct answer to asset allocation. You just look at past performance and go with your gut. I'm not sure I'm following you. How is past performance relevant to AA? And aren't there many individual, but rational, considerations other than...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Mar 26, 2024 4:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Advice for 29 year old daughter
Replies: 32
Views: 2806

Re: Advice for 29 year old daughter

Rocinante Rider wrote: Tue Mar 26, 2024 3:26 pm
z3r0c00l wrote: Tue Mar 26, 2024 3:06 pm Live in or sell the condo when its time to leave home. Max out the 401K which is feasible on 80K outside of a horrendous cost of living area. I recommend 20% bonds increasing every 5 years by 5% until she hits 50/50 around age 60.
Depends entirely on individual circumstances, financial condition, SWAN factors, etc. I'm in low to mid 70s across the board: age, % equities, % of equities in US, which I view as a conservative allocation for our situation.
Honestly I think it is worse than all that, there is no correct answer to asset allocation. You just look at past performance and go with your gut.
by z3r0c00l
Tue Mar 26, 2024 3:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Advice for 29 year old daughter
Replies: 32
Views: 2806

Re: Advice for 29 year old daughter

Live in or sell the condo when its time to leave home. Max out the 401K which is feasible on 80K outside of a horrendous cost of living area. I recommend 20% bonds increasing every 5 years by 5% until she hits 50/50 around age 60.
by z3r0c00l
Tue Mar 26, 2024 9:21 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Those complimentary dinners for retirees by investment advisors
Replies: 137
Views: 10181

Re: Those complimentary dinners for retirees by investment advisors

Free dinner simply isn't enough for me. $200 gift card I would gladly go, do surveys for $10 already : )
by z3r0c00l
Tue Mar 26, 2024 8:56 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Those complimentary dinners for retirees by investment advisors
Replies: 137
Views: 10181

Re: Those complimentary dinners for retirees by investment advisors

I wouldn't do it, there is a non-zero risk that you will get talked into something.
by z3r0c00l
Tue Mar 26, 2024 6:48 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How quickly can I liquidate a mutual fund at Vanguard to my linked bank account?
Replies: 9
Views: 1269

Re: How quickly can I liquidate a mutual fund at Vanguard to my linked bank account?

I allow 3 contiguous business days to be on the safe side. 1 day = .015% interest on my Vanguard cash isn't worth a risk of overdraft fees or some other problem, especially on tax day. On $10,000 that is $1.48 for the extra day.
by z3r0c00l
Sun Mar 24, 2024 10:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VTIAX expense increase: why?
Replies: 16
Views: 2034

Re: VTIAX expense increase: why?

I bet wages went up 10-15% over the past few years across the board. Would that be a possible reason?
by z3r0c00l
Sun Mar 24, 2024 5:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I really really afford a 3 million mortgage?
Replies: 104
Views: 9011

Re: Can I really really afford a 3 million mortgage?

I mean, I'll go ahead and ask it: where are town homes $3 million? Even by the standards of VHCOL that's bananas. If you're in medicine, there have to be other options, even in normal VHCOL places. It does seem crazy (to me) to make $1M/year and feel stretched on a mortgage, especially given how many very, very, (very) nice places are less expensive. New York, London, Paris... VHCOL = you can drop $30 million+ on a townhouse in the right area. $3 million gets you a nice but by no means exceptional brownstone in Park Slope. A bigger place in Brooklyn Heights or worse, the West Village, will run you 2-3x that price easily. The median price per square foot in Manhattan is about $1,600. I am not sure you realize what VHCOL actually entails. Bu...
by z3r0c00l
Sun Mar 24, 2024 7:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I really really afford a 3 million mortgage?
Replies: 104
Views: 9011

Re: Can I really really afford a 3 million mortgage?

SmallSaver wrote: Sat Mar 23, 2024 8:23 pm I mean, I'll go ahead and ask it: where are town homes $3 million? Even by the standards of VHCOL that's bananas. If you're in medicine, there have to be other options, even in normal VHCOL places. It does seem crazy (to me) to make $1M/year and feel stretched on a mortgage, especially given how many very, very, (very) nice places are less expensive.
New York, London, Paris... VHCOL = you can drop $30 million+ on a townhouse in the right area. $3 million gets you a nice but by no means exceptional brownstone in Park Slope. A bigger place in Brooklyn Heights or worse, the West Village, will run you 2-3x that price easily. The median price per square foot in Manhattan is about $1,600. I am not sure you realize what VHCOL actually entails.
by z3r0c00l
Thu Mar 21, 2024 7:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dangers of excessive optimism?
Replies: 86
Views: 6677

Re: Dangers of excessive optimism?

There is a lot more green than than blue in this chart. So I can see where optimism could hurt folks these days. We are due for a grey period. https://static.helpjuice.com/helpjuice_production/uploads/upload/image/3894/direct/1529528640819-Bull%20v%20Bear.png The time since 2009 hasn't been all rainbows and unicorns. https://www.advisorperspectives.com/images/content_image/data/cd/cdc24824dfea6095aec56f0fb2768c2f.png Are we due? There was a bear market not too long ago, not sure how the top chart is calling what we are in an 8-year run in light of that. (24% decline from December 2021 through October 2022 as nicely seen on the 2nd chart.) Seems like we hit a grey patch, US stocks have basically gone sideways from late 2021 through early th...
by z3r0c00l
Thu Mar 21, 2024 6:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dangers of excessive optimism?
Replies: 86
Views: 6677

Re: Dangers of excessive optimism?

meadowrue wrote: Wed Mar 20, 2024 2:21 pm It’s easy to believe that markets only go up when, well, they’re only going up!
The market has gone up to date, since we are at an all time high. Over long spans of time it has also, only gone up. Can't promise that in the future but there is good reason to think it will continue. We don't know the path it will take, but I have every confidence stocks will be higher in 2040 than today.
by z3r0c00l
Wed Mar 20, 2024 7:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Equiy Indexed Annuity using retirement money
Replies: 28
Views: 1903

Re: Equiy Indexed Annuity using retirement money

Time to drop that advisor, they are acting in their best interest, and not yours, and you are paying them to do so.

Yes they have an incentive to sell annuities, life insurance, and other products. They get what most industries would call kickbacks, but here it is called a commission. Up to 10% goes to the broker.

Yes, you are absolutely better off just putting everything into a set of low-cost index mutual funds.
by z3r0c00l
Wed Mar 20, 2024 6:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are TIPS funds useless?
Replies: 25
Views: 4225

Re: Are TIPS funds useless?

If you want your bonds to never go down, or specifically not to go down when inflation and rates go up, consider I bonds instead.
by z3r0c00l
Tue Mar 19, 2024 6:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Genius of the Financial Industry
Replies: 44
Views: 3034

Re: Genius of the Financial Industry

buddy wait till you learn about taxes... Right, because they just pay for the Army, Navy, Air Force, highways, power lines, clean drinking water, social security, NIH, police, justice system, prisons, NASA, free public schooling, inexpensive state schools, national parks, local parks and waterways, bridges, tunnels, dams, reservoirs, libraries, roads... don't get much back there. :oops: Anyway, I would argue we the stock investors are in a very similar position. You own, I presume, stocks like Apple. Do you ever give much care to the quality or price of the products Apple sells on your behalf? How about the poor people in Asia who make the products? These companies sell the most profitable product they can without losing business. Thanks t...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Mar 18, 2024 5:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Can I retire with $1.75M at age 43?
Replies: 169
Views: 12555

Re: Can I retire with $1.75M at age 43?

$35,000 in 1994 turned into $44,575 in 2004, $56,206 in 2014, and $74,291 today. This is one reason why I don't think you have enough, specifically you have too many unknowns about future spending to plan 40 years out. What if stocks are down 50% for a while? What about medical emergencies, legal troubles, etc? What if your housing costs double? I do appreciate the idea of early retirement, and hope to retire at 55 with a comparable amount of net worth as you but with a substantial pension to boot. But that's a 30 year horizon with pension and healthcare for life, here you are describing more of a 40 year horizon and it isn't clear what income you have beyond the $1.75. Think this job sucks? Imagine being 67, in poor health, and having to ...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Mar 18, 2024 7:02 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Can I retire with $1.75M at age 43?
Replies: 169
Views: 12555

Re: Can I retire with $1.75M at age 43?

$35,000 in 1994 turned into $44,575 in 2004, $56,206 in 2014, and $74,291 today. This is one reason why I don't think you have enough, specifically you have too many unknowns about future spending to plan 40 years out. What if stocks are down 50% for a while? What about medical emergencies, legal troubles, etc? What if your housing costs double? I do appreciate the idea of early retirement, and hope to retire at 55 with a comparable amount of net worth as you but with a substantial pension to boot. But that's a 30 year horizon with pension and healthcare for life, here you are describing more of a 40 year horizon and it isn't clear what income you have beyond the $1.75. Think this job sucks? Imagine being 67, in poor health, and having to g...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Mar 16, 2024 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Announces CEO Retirement and Appointment of President
Replies: 372
Views: 36446

Re: Vanguard Announces CEO Retirement and Appointment of President

billaster wrote: Sat Mar 16, 2024 10:00 am
CRC_Volunteer wrote: Fri Mar 15, 2024 11:40 pm I would like to go back to a time when Flagship status meant something...
Flagship status meant something when expense ratios were much higher. Today a $1 million account might mean a lot to you but to Vanguard it amounts to around $400 a year. A lot of people spend more than that at Starbucks. It hardly makes you a special customer.
Don't they also make money lending shares?
by z3r0c00l
Sat Mar 16, 2024 9:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Great news! No more [fixed real estate] agent commission
Replies: 238
Views: 22604

Re: Great news! No more agent commission

barnaclebob wrote: Fri Mar 15, 2024 10:02 am
RJC wrote: Fri Mar 15, 2024 9:59 am Got this from another article:
4. About one million real estate agents could leave the profession.
Are there even 1 million real estate agents? 1 in 300 people?
There are quite a few jobs in this country that would be obsolete overnight, think of all the tax prep companies which would immediately disappear if US taxes worked like other developed countries. Glad to have middle-men out of the picture whenever possible. As a renter, I only consider no-broker fee apartments. There are about 2 million realtors in the US right now.
by z3r0c00l
Mon Mar 11, 2024 6:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Embracing Principles [during the dot-com bubble and tech surges?]
Replies: 43
Views: 4199

Re: Embracing Principles Amidst Bitcoin and Nvidia's Surge?

I don't rethink the lotto after someone wins the lotto. Yes it is annoying to see people get lucky through zero skill, and then pretend that they knew all along it was a sure thing. Here's how this game would go: I get the nerve up to put a significant fraction of my money on the line and buy Nvidia. It goes up! Do I sell at 10%, 15%, 20%? How long do you hold and when do you sell? If you sell too soon and it keeps going up, do you buy back in or stay out and regret staying out? After those regrets build up and you finally buy back in, then it goes down, do you sell at a loss and give up? Or do you ride it out? Now it is going back up again! Do you sell at 10%? 20%? 30%? This game isn't fun, don't play it. Gamble with folding money, not you...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Mar 09, 2024 2:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I have a couple questions for home savings and would love advice!
Replies: 10
Views: 913

Re: I have a couple questions for home savings and would love advice!

This is relevant to a thought I had in another thread, where one asks about a money market fund. I think you are unlikely to beat a money market fund (offering about 5.3% right now) over the next 12 months with zero volatility. Not sure how a ladder works for money you need in about a year, instead a 52 week bill would work, or a 12 month CD. But those all pay considerably less than the money market.

If I misunderstand your meaning and the money isn't needed in 1 year, then a bond ladder, bond fund, and CD ladder are all solid options. High yield savings account should also be a bit sticky if interest rates drop too, so it will be decent for a while. Graph showing what I mean by sticky: https://i.imgur.com/xGkaNHq.png
by z3r0c00l
Sat Mar 09, 2024 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Money Market or VUSXX
Replies: 18
Views: 1861

Re: Money Market or VUSXX

5.41% compound yield, hard to beat that these days. It will almost certainly be the best zero-volatility investment over the next 6-12 months. After that point, hard to say what happens. I use VMFXX, very similar, for my cash. In fact at these interest rates I am squeezing every penny to get more into the fund as early as possible.
by z3r0c00l
Sat Mar 09, 2024 8:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Vanguard so bullish on international exposure in their all-in-one funds?
Replies: 77
Views: 6906

Re: Why is Vanguard so bullish on international exposure in their all-in-one funds?

Because they seem to be convinced of the same concept that this forum is founded upon: no one can pick stocks be it in a sector, a state, a dividend yield, or a country. Since active management and picking stocks does not work, the only answer is to hold a diversified sampling of the entire market. You can't tell me which country/sector will perform the best and which the worst in the year ahead. So I will own all of the countries and sectors in the proportion that $110 trillion dollars has decided the money should be divvied up. (More than 2x the value of all US real estate, by the way.) That's what Vanguard is angling at, because of the philosophy of one person, after whom this forum is named. The connection there seems pretty obvious. R...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Mar 09, 2024 8:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Vanguard so bullish on international exposure in their all-in-one funds?
Replies: 77
Views: 6906

Re: Why is Vanguard so bullish on international exposure in their all-in-one funds?

Long-term investors who followed Jack’s advice read comments like this and laugh all the way to the bank. And those who gambled everything on a single stock will laugh at Jack's advice all the way to the bank too. That makes them lucky, not right. BTW, good job picking a starting point that best illustrates your view. Show us 1968 - 1989 or 2000 - 2007 next time. Or better yet, hand draw me a graph of what you think will happen from 2024 - 2037 when I plan to retire. The absurdity of that exercise underscores why I won't put everything in on one country, even if it happens to be the country I love best. I already have an outsize exposure to the US economy through work, taxes, currency, social security, and any number of other ways. And of ...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Mar 09, 2024 7:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Vanguard so bullish on international exposure in their all-in-one funds?
Replies: 77
Views: 6906

Re: Why is Vanguard so bullish on international exposure in their all-in-one funds?

The argument that in theory one should own the world capitalization makes sense. On the other hand at some point there needs to be a coherent explanation for why US stocks have delivered so drastically much more return than rest of the world stocks over the last 25 years at least. If that explanation is some kind of pure chance then it would help for that to include some statistical expectation for what the time frequency might be for that to change. You wouldn't necessarily be making this statement in 1989 or 2007 when there was widespread hysteria about how international was taking over. Then, it was Japan taking over the world and BRICs, respectively. The US has outperformed for many reasons, I think primarily among them that we have be...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Mar 09, 2024 6:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Vanguard so bullish on international exposure in their all-in-one funds?
Replies: 77
Views: 6906

Re: Why is Vanguard so bullish on international exposure in their all-in-one funds?

Because they seem to be convinced of the same concept that this forum is founded upon: no one can pick stocks be it in a sector, a state, a dividend yield, or a country. Since active management and picking stocks does not work, the only answer is to hold a diversified sampling of the entire market. You can't tell me which country/sector will perform the best and which the worst in the year ahead. So I will own all of the countries and sectors in the proportion that $110 trillion dollars has decided the money should be divvied up. (More than 2x the value of all US real estate, by the way.) That's what Vanguard is angling at, because of the philosophy of one person, after whom this forum is named. The connection there seems pretty obvious. R...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Mar 08, 2024 2:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Vanguard so bullish on international exposure in their all-in-one funds?
Replies: 77
Views: 6906

Re: Why is Vanguard so bullish on international exposure in their all-in-one funds?

Because they seem to be convinced of the same concept that this forum is founded upon: no one can pick stocks be it in a sector, a state, a dividend yield, or a country. Since active management and picking stocks does not work, the only answer is to hold a diversified sampling of the entire market. You can't tell me which country/sector will perform the best and which the worst in the year ahead. So I will own all of the countries and sectors in the proportion that $110 trillion dollars has decided the money should be divvied up. (More than 2x the value of all US real estate, by the way.) That's what Vanguard is angling at, because of the philosophy of one person, after whom this forum is named. The connection there seems pretty obvious. R...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Mar 08, 2024 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Vanguard so bullish on international exposure in their all-in-one funds?
Replies: 77
Views: 6906

Re: Why is Vanguard so bullish on international exposure in their all-in-one funds?

Because they seem to be convinced of the same concept that this forum is founded upon: no one can pick stocks be it in a sector, a state, a dividend yield, or a country. Since active management and picking stocks does not work, the only answer is to hold a diversified sampling of the entire market. You can't tell me which country/sector will perform the best and which the worst in the year ahead. So I will own all of the countries and sectors in the proportion that $110 trillion dollars has decided the money should be divvied up. (More than 2x the value of all US real estate, by the way.) That's what Vanguard is angling at, because of the philosophy of one person, after whom this forum is named. The connection there seems pretty obvious. Ha...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Mar 08, 2024 9:24 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 16 yr old - how can I best take on high risk?
Replies: 65
Views: 5610

Re: 16 yr old - how can I best take on high risk?

If looking for high risk, how about 100% Tesla or Nvidia? Those are/were good examples of high Beta stocks. That's a good way to wind up with nothing in 20-30 years. Most companies simply don't last that long. Putting all your money in a single stock for decades is approaching the risk of putting it all on black at a casino . Could literally ruin your financial life. (Average lifespan of a SP500 company around 20 years.) Recommend 100% VT for your investments. Of course what you do for a living and how much you save is far more important, so focus on your education and skillset now, and your health as it is pointless to be rich without health. I know plenty of millionaires who can't do anything fun with their money because their health is ...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Mar 08, 2024 8:21 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I bonds selling
Replies: 26
Views: 3871

Re: I bonds selling

Unless you can get 10% of your net worth or more in there, I wouldn't bother personally. A big advocate for simplifying your finances.
by z3r0c00l
Fri Mar 08, 2024 6:18 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 16 yr old - how can I best take on high risk?
Replies: 65
Views: 5610

Re: 16 yr old - how can I best take on high risk?

If looking for high risk, how about 100% Tesla or Nvidia? Those are/were good examples of high Beta stocks. That's a good way to wind up with nothing in 20-30 years. Most companies simply don't last that long. Putting all your money in a single stock for decades is approaching the risk of putting it all on black at a casino. Could literally ruin your financial life. (Average lifespan of a SP500 company around 20 years.) Recommend 100% VT for your investments. Of course what you do for a living and how much you save is far more important, so focus on your education and skillset now, and your health as it is pointless to be rich without health. I know plenty of millionaires who can't do anything fun with their money because their health is r...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Mar 05, 2024 7:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I retire?
Replies: 41
Views: 4827

Re: Can I retire?

texasdiver wrote: Mon Mar 04, 2024 7:18 pm
You know the answer. Why are you asking us?
Either a "humble brag" or a fear of retirement/spending down the nest egg. Psychological problem, not financial.
by z3r0c00l
Tue Mar 05, 2024 11:58 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity Calls from "Palumbo Wealth Management Team"
Replies: 37
Views: 3617

Re: Fidelity Calls from "Palumbo Wealth Management Team"

rkhusky wrote: Tue Mar 05, 2024 10:19 am My wife just got an inherited IRA. Less than a week after it was established at Fidelity, she got a call from a Fidelity salesman. The account is now at Vanguard (bit of Feb dividends being mopped up and due to be transferred today).
This is proceeds from an inherited IRA. My parents like the idea of splitting across two firms so about half at Vanguard, half at Fidelity. Will follow this helpful advice and try the do-not-call request in tandem with making sure this was a legit call. I believe the person was legit in so far as they knew the size of the account and how it was invested, the fidelity looking emails and phone numbers, and pictures of staff that I can find online at Fidelity. So more annoying than a scam.
by z3r0c00l
Tue Mar 05, 2024 7:00 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity Calls from "Palumbo Wealth Management Team"
Replies: 37
Views: 3617

Fidelity Calls from "Palumbo Wealth Management Team"

My parents keep getting unsolicited calls from the "Palumbo Wealth Management Team" which claims to be from Fidelity. (My parents have an account there.) They are, no surprise, trying to push annuities and life insurance using the typical graph and chart routine. My concerns are two fold: First, is it possible to get Fidelity to stop the high pressure sales calls? My parents have already said no to these products multiple times over the past few years. I am a bit concerned that given enough time and pressure, my parents could get talked into an annuity which they did many years ago, to considerable regret. (It took a decade to unwind the last annuity due to the fee structure and tax implications.) Or is it like Verizon where I wil...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Mar 04, 2024 6:26 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Good or bad time to invest in S&P 500 for Roth IRA?
Replies: 30
Views: 4021

Re: Good or bad time to invest in S&P 500 for Roth IRA?

I put more than half of my bi-monthly 401K contributions into stocks, and will continue doing so for the next 15 years. Set it and forget it, check back in 10-20 years and you are almost certainly going to be happy. You are not buying stocks to gamble that the price might go up, you are buying stocks because corporations make money, like a lot of money, and that is why the stocks will very likely continue to go up. To date, they always have.
by z3r0c00l
Sun Mar 03, 2024 6:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are We in a Stock Market Bubble? (Ray Dalio)
Replies: 132
Views: 15800

Re: Are We in a Stock Market Bubble? (Ray Dalio)

Elysium wrote: Sat Mar 02, 2024 7:19 pm the stature of then Fed chair Alan Greenspan... or Warren Buffett
They don't know either, especially Greenspan. Not sure why everyone still thinks he was brilliant, the guy seems to have missed everything from bubbles to the roots of the Great Recession.
by z3r0c00l
Sat Mar 02, 2024 6:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are We in a Stock Market Bubble? (Ray Dalio)
Replies: 132
Views: 15800

Re: Are We in a Stock Market Bubble? (Ray Dalio)

P/E of 28 is lofty, but well short of the 36 hit in December 2020 which was the popping of the everything bubble, a rather modest crash in hindsight. If we hit 35 I would say things are overvalued and ripe for a correction but that is nothing to worry about. I don't mind passing back through 4,800 on the way to 10,000+.
by z3r0c00l
Sat Mar 02, 2024 4:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Invest cash when interest goes down
Replies: 52
Views: 5392

Re: Invest cash when interest goes down

For many years I had it at Ally high yield savings, would go back if it approaches or exceeds the yield. Right now offering 4.35% I think, that's a significant difference in my world. Losing out on $500 a year on $50,000, plus the lifetime interest on that $500 even if it is only one more year of current, arguably abnormal conditions.
by z3r0c00l
Wed Feb 28, 2024 5:52 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VUSXX
Replies: 17
Views: 2836

Re: VUSXX

I use this fund, would take it one step further and argue you are unlikely to find anything significantly better if you need the liquidity without any volatility. Sadly its current place near the top of the heap is an aberration and could end by the end of the year if interest rates drop.
by z3r0c00l
Tue Feb 27, 2024 5:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any Ideas on Future CD Rates?
Replies: 7
Views: 1940

Re: Any Ideas on Future CD Rates?

Billions (maybe trillions?) of dollars in smart money are betting on this question. No one here can give you a satisfactory answer beyond what the market has decided. And the market is almost always wrong on interest rates anyway.

I take some solace in the fact that it really doesn't matter that much, and you can also consider splitting the difference between two reasonable options. I would be happy with an intermediate bond fund, 5-year CD ladder, 5 year CD, 3-10 year treasury bonds. SPAXX is a great options right now, but that may not last. It normally underperforms these other options, and that makes sense since zero volatility and complete liquidity normally comes at the cost of less interest.
by z3r0c00l
Sun Feb 25, 2024 9:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bad idea to get a CD with a "troubled" bank?
Replies: 6
Views: 1230

Re: Bad idea to get a CD with a "troubled" bank?

nisiprius wrote: Sun Feb 25, 2024 9:44 pm Where exactly did you read about this?

A web search turned up a CNBC article, [url=https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/16/you-won ... rates.html]
The article also shows the ticker for NY Community Bancorp too, poor guys have gone sideways for the past 24 years in their stock.
by z3r0c00l
Sun Feb 25, 2024 6:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Could I-bonds really return >10% in hyperinflation scenarios
Replies: 52
Views: 8086

Re: Could I-bonds really return >10% in hyperinflation scenarios

The US Govt was paying over 15% on 10 year treasuries in living memory, why would a tiny product like I bonds be an issue?

Or do you mean 50+ percent per year? In those scenarios, a default and currency reset is quite likely, not to mention bigger economic and societal problems. Then you might want to have a stash of gold coins somewhere or own land.

Look to Argentina which has defaulted so many times and is once again clocking around 100 percent inflation. Thankfully a country doesn't have to collapse even if its economy does. But if things get really bad, no government product will save you because the government itself, at least vis-a-vis economic matters, is failing.
by z3r0c00l
Sat Feb 24, 2024 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Berkshire Hathaway annual letter is out
Replies: 41
Views: 7335

Re: Berkshire Hathaway annual letter is out

Stinky wrote: Sat Feb 24, 2024 1:04 pm
I believe that the days of "huge outperformance" are gone for Berkshire.
And again in humility and honesty, Buffett says this openly, and he advises people to just buy the SP500.

Do I think his investments in Japan of about $6 billion directly impacted the price of an index worth over $6 trillion? 1/1000th of the market cap, so probably not. But could he sway the perception for other investors enough? Quite possibly.
by z3r0c00l
Sat Feb 24, 2024 10:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Berkshire Hathaway annual letter is out
Replies: 41
Views: 7335

Re: Berkshire Hathaway annual letter is out

Humble, honest, informative... this guy is the real deal. And a great year for BRK.A (well ahead of SP500 year to date, 1 year, and 5 year spans.) BRK.A returned 500x since 1984 compared to SP500 returning 30X before dividends, remarkably steady too. The pivot to Japan seems well timed, or perhaps even a factor in Japan doing well over the past year.
by z3r0c00l
Sat Feb 24, 2024 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Japan’s Nikkei 225 briefly crosses 30,000 for first time in more than three decades
Replies: 60
Views: 7436

Re: Japan’s Nikkei 225 briefly crosses 30,000 for first time in more than three decades

nisiprius wrote: Thu Feb 22, 2024 9:54 am Odd that there was no anguished panic in the US media about the Nikkei beating the Dow.
It will be a fascinating race to watch now that both are neck and neck. Dow was at 2,700 last time the N225 was this high! (Winter 1989.) Amazing how the "yellow scare" of the late 80's, as typified by the book and movie Rising Sun, so rapidly reversed and the US economic miracle kept going for decades.
by z3r0c00l
Thu Feb 22, 2024 6:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Japan’s Nikkei 225 briefly crosses 30,000 for first time in more than three decades
Replies: 60
Views: 7436

Re: Japan’s Nikkei 225 briefly crosses 30,000 for first time in more than three decades

Sorry to revive such an old thread, but maybe worth noting that the N225 has now hit an all time high and is a good day or two away from 40,000.

Of course far short of the inflation adjusted level of 1989, but nevertheless a nice milestone and incredible year for the Japanese stock market.

Also something of a head scratcher, how can public perception of a stock market change so abruptly, and why? And for that matter, why are all of the world's stock markets apparently up a healthy amount today including US futures? Is it just the NVDA news from yesterday?