Search found 1150 matches

by z3r0c00l
Sat Oct 13, 2018 10:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New 401k confusion with market
Replies: 19
Views: 1461

Re: New 401k confusion with market

Not many people making money this year and if they are, they are probably taking on risks that will cost them more in future years. It feels crummy, but one must get used to this feeling. You surely knew that stocks and bonds can go down sometimes, I presume. Well this year, they have gone down a bit.
by z3r0c00l
Sat Oct 13, 2018 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rebalance to bonds in 401k (timing)
Replies: 3
Views: 264

Re: Rebalance to bonds in 401k (timing)

I re-balance if things are off by more than 5%. Anything less than that doesn't seem statistically significant, if you will. I doubt even 10% variations make a huge difference in the behavior of a portfolio all that much. New money will go into the area that is short, of course, but I make no specia...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Oct 12, 2018 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: anybody sell I Bonds to buy something else?
Replies: 33
Views: 2620

Re: anybody sell I Bonds to buy something else?

Not yet, they are the bulk of my emergency fund too and now also serving as part of savings to buy a home. (The worst i-bonds over 5 years old will get pushed out when buying a home.) It may be that you can better CD rates now, but you can't get the inflation protection guarantee elsewhere.
by z3r0c00l
Fri Oct 12, 2018 8:00 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: “$1000/month job is worth $300k in retirement funds” // What are some retirement jobs you would actually enjoy doing?
Replies: 103
Views: 9307

Re: “$1000/month job is worth $300k in retirement funds” // What are some retirement jobs you would actually enjoy doing

Rather than try to drop into a new job at 55-65, which is more difficult than some might think (to just become a teacher suddenly, for example, as if it were the kind of job just anyone can do on a whim), I suggest cultivating a healthy set of side jobs and consulting opportunities while you are sti...
by z3r0c00l
Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Budget Coffee
Replies: 51
Views: 3063

Re: Budget Coffee

I tend to like light roasts and spend ~$16 / lb whole beans but got some New England Coffee the other day at about $6 / lb and didn't think it was all that bad. I'll probably stick with the local higher end stuff but am curious to try more of the cheap stuff. What do you all like for coffee say und...
by z3r0c00l
Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The benefits of international diversification - NOT: Hulbert
Replies: 80
Views: 5103

Re: The benefits of international diversification - NOT: Hulbert

I go back and forth on international diversification. I started out with none then read Bernstein’s books and decided to allocate 20% to it. While looking in my 401(k) one share of S&P 500 is roughly $160 a share and in my wifes 403(b) one share of S&P 500 (VIIIX) was $250 a share. Meanwhile my int...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When to buy some form of US bonds?
Replies: 6
Views: 972

Re: When to buy some form of US bonds?

Timing the bond market is such a laughable concept, what exactly do you know that governments and corporations with $1 trillion worth of them don't? And by the way, few of them expected the relatively sudden price drop last week. We can only speak in past tense here. It is perhaps a bit better time ...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Oct 08, 2018 5:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market decline in 2019 ?
Replies: 73
Views: 6363

Re: Market decline in 2019 ?

markcoop wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:12 pm
I just don't know how to do know when the valuation is high enough or low enough.
No one does and that is the crux of this issue, you simply cannot predict the next 10 years of the stock market. The case for predicting 20-30 years is much stronger but still not a lock.
by z3r0c00l
Mon Oct 08, 2018 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why 401k does not have option to invest in Govt Bonds
Replies: 16
Views: 623

Re: Why 401k does not have option to invest in Govt Bonds

Yes US Treasuries. When I look at investment options I see options like Vanguard Total Bond Index etc. In the description it says, the fund invests in 80% rated bonds and may invest 20% in unrated bonds. I am all for having more 401K choices, since I don't have a ton in mine. However since your 401...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Oct 06, 2018 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bump Rate CD decisions
Replies: 3
Views: 407

Re: Bump Rate CD decisions

I would, no promise they will increase it again. 3.15 is good for 3 years.
by z3r0c00l
Sat Oct 06, 2018 1:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Plan For Depleting Your Investments If No Heirs?
Replies: 39
Views: 4627

Re: Plan For Depleting Your Investments If No Heirs?

Plan to leave excess to non-profits when I die.
by z3r0c00l
Sat Oct 06, 2018 8:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I sell my rental properties?
Replies: 6
Views: 745

Re: Should I sell my rental properties?

I don't think the income in these two markets seems worth the cost of keeping the properties. I don't see insurance and other expenses, and already you are just breaking even against mortgage, I presume before taxes. It just doesn't strike me as a useful source of income if the homes more or less on...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Oct 06, 2018 8:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Fund TTM data interpretation
Replies: 4
Views: 321

Re: Bond Fund TTM data interpretation

Past 12 months I see a decline in NAV of 4.74% (10.77 to 10.26) in the chart. Looks like you are pretty much on target here, our dates are off a bit though. It seems like overall performance is mostly a combination of NAV change and income. A pretty serious decline in one year for this fund. It is n...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Oct 05, 2018 9:11 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Move out of bonds into CDs?
Replies: 2
Views: 550

Re: Move out of bonds into CDs?

The interest rates JUST jumped and the bond funds dropped an amount that, for them, was pretty significant. This would be a strange time to sell them since they are a significantly better deal today than when you purchased them. I doubt there are any winning strategies for timing securities, but if ...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Oct 05, 2018 8:25 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My company does not offer 401k match, should I forego contributing to it?
Replies: 13
Views: 1179

Re: My company does not offer 401k match, should I forego contributing to it?

Whatever you save in taxes, be it 12% or 28%, will earn money for decades. It is worth it without the match. In addition, many 401Ks offer cheap loans and the money is protected from bankruptcy and civil judgments.
by z3r0c00l
Thu Oct 04, 2018 12:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Long or medium bonds
Replies: 88
Views: 5458

Re: Long or medium bonds

Long just doesn't make sense right now... I've been hearing that for so long it's getting old, I've been hearing about the so called bond apocalypse due to rising interest rates for so many years I've started to tune out. It hasn't happened yet, meanwhile long term bonds continue to outperform. EDV...
by z3r0c00l
Wed Oct 03, 2018 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Long or medium bonds
Replies: 88
Views: 5458

Re: Long or medium bonds

5 year pays 2.95% and 30 year pays 3.22%. Seems like a no-brainer with the curve basically flat. Many advocate for bonds because they sometimes zig when stocks zag. In that case, going long makes sense. However the real reason for bonds is their every-day low volatility, in good times and bad. In th...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Oct 02, 2018 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Barron's Making the Case for Gold
Replies: 111
Views: 7622

Re: Barron's Making the Case for Gold

Why gold rather than platinum or silver? The latter two have declined precipitously the past few years. Heck, platinum is cheaper than gold right now, I can't recall when that was the case before. Just listen to commercials on AM talk radio or watch commercials on Fox News and you'll understand why...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Oct 02, 2018 9:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Barron's Making the Case for Gold
Replies: 111
Views: 7622

Re: Barron's Making the Case for Gold

Why gold rather than platinum or silver? The latter two have declined precipitously the past few years. Heck, platinum is cheaper than gold right now, I can't recall when that was the case before. In the event, my opinion on gold is best explained by Buffet (short version): “You could take all the g...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Oct 02, 2018 7:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why won't the US markets average 0-2% (or 10-20%) real returns for a few decades?
Replies: 20
Views: 2770

Re: Why won't the US markets average 0-2% (or 10-20%) real returns for a few decades?

The markets cannot be predicted, although past performance is all we have to go on. The next few decades could have lower returns. If there is a secular shift in the future, it could be because of changing demographics in the developed world.
by z3r0c00l
Mon Oct 01, 2018 8:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My biggest mistake - market timing
Replies: 60
Views: 8002

Re: My biggest mistake - market timing

Actually made the mistake twice; pulling out, and now struggling to invest again due to "all time highs" which occur most years.

Consider that you may not have the grit for investing in stocks. There is no harm in that, you may just have to save a bit more or work a bit longer.
by z3r0c00l
Fri Sep 28, 2018 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: understanding how bond funds make or lose money
Replies: 5
Views: 750

Re: understanding how bond funds make or lose money

Reasonable enough, however I would note that a 25% loss of NAV in a moderate bond fund is almost unheard of. More realistic would be what we have just gone through, a flat year or 1 or 2% drop in NAV. The real risk in bonds is harder to see while it happens: their failure to keep pace with inflation...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Sep 28, 2018 8:25 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to do with cash in the short term?
Replies: 36
Views: 2949

Re: What to do with cash in the short term?

+1 vote for a CD but I want to manage your expectations. Given the current and projected near future inflation rates, a 2 year CD will basically keep you on pace with inflation, and certainly no more after taxes. That's all you can hope for safely. A 2 year Treasury Note is offering a bit more but I...
by z3r0c00l
Thu Sep 27, 2018 9:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lobbying for a bond index fund in employer 401K, approach?
Replies: 9
Views: 833

Re: Lobbying for a bond index fund in employer 401K, approach?

Principal Global Multi-Strategy Fund Institutional Class Shares (PSMIX) 2.25% Wow what a stinker, and it has only 750 million under management now and the ER will keep going up as that number drops. I'd like to find out who is getting kickbacks to include this option, or how they made the choice. T...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Sep 24, 2018 5:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in the Rare Opportunity
Replies: 59
Views: 4480

Re: Investing in the Rare Opportunity

Note that a person with a few million and a good job already isn't exactly wasting their life... you can live a very nice life while continuing to work. Balance!
by z3r0c00l
Mon Sep 24, 2018 6:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in the Rare Opportunity
Replies: 59
Views: 4480

Re: Investing in the Rare Opportunity

If I already had 2 M at 40, I would certainly gamble for the bigger payout in a few years. If it went IPO you could be fabulously wealthy a few years later. That is worth it imho since you already have 2M safe and secure.
by z3r0c00l
Sun Sep 23, 2018 9:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: NYC weekend house: your experiences?
Replies: 18
Views: 2764

Re: NYC weekend house: your experiences?

Most important part of my life as a child, the ability to spend time in the country while growing up in the city. If you can afford it, the only question is where to get the country home. Are you more a woods and lake type or a ocean type? : ) Long Island and NJ both good picks imho.
by z3r0c00l
Sun Sep 23, 2018 8:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity: REIT funds
Replies: 8
Views: 1106

Re: Fidelity: REIT funds

REITs are real estate like gold mining stocks are gold. Correlated for sure, but not the same thing. I wouldn't consider it an investment in real estate, just a focus on a specific kind of stock.
by z3r0c00l
Sun Sep 23, 2018 6:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I-savings bonds: To do or not to do
Replies: 10
Views: 1539

Re: I-savings bonds: To do or not to do

Yes I personally prefer these to CDs as long as $10,000 a year is sufficient to meet your needs. It meets my needs for this kind of safe investment (3rd tier emergency fund) so I buy them each year to keep the right ratio with stocks. It resembles a 5 year, infinite raise-your-rate CD in my mind. .3...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Sep 17, 2018 5:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Advisor suggesting 7 Bond funds for my 40%
Replies: 44
Views: 5311

Re: Vanguard Advisor suggesting 7 Bond funds for my 40%

hulburt1 wrote:
Sun Sep 16, 2018 11:02 pm
Why bonds. In the last 10 years what would you have made. I'm 5% mm and 95% in stocks In the last 10 years I'm up 15% per year.
Why would a 10 year bull market be a useful time frame for deciding why bonds? Bonds: because the market doesn't always go up for 10 years.
by z3r0c00l
Sun Sep 16, 2018 7:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does cash at Ally count in my asset allocation?
Replies: 22
Views: 1944

Re: Does cash at Ally count in my asset allocation?

I don't count my emergency fund as part of the AA. It becomes relatively small compared to your total life savings in most cases.
by z3r0c00l
Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Employer won't Match 401k. Why?
Replies: 52
Views: 5520

Re: Employer won't Match 401k. Why?

My company (large but non-profit) got rid of our 401K match a few years back, in exchange for not weakening the pension terms. That was a strong push by the union, for obvious reasons, but was a real disappointment to people like me with the discipline to save. Clearly it would be much cheaper to dr...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Sep 15, 2018 9:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Side Hustle Options/Suggestions.
Replies: 99
Views: 10145

Re: Side Hustle Options/Suggestions.

I buy items at yard sales and thrift stores and resell them online. It does require book keeping but it's enough money that it's changed our lives completely. How is that these days?? Still going strong? This was great money back in early 2000s. I stopped doing after a graduated college and started...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Sep 14, 2018 8:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Job burnout - Keep grinding or change?
Replies: 62
Views: 6657

Re: Job burnout - Keep grinding or change?

This is one of the best job hunting environments in a generation, so it would be a good time to search for another, perhaps better paying, perhaps more enjoyable position. I completely agree with finding a balance and being able to enjoy life before it is too late. I plan to retire or at least mostl...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Sep 10, 2018 6:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Commodities have never been cheaper - time to buy?
Replies: 46
Views: 5121

Re: Commodities have never been cheaper - time to buy?

What if they are cheaper because they are bad investments and there is a surplus that is growing despite a roaring US economy and middling international recovery?
by z3r0c00l
Sun Sep 09, 2018 6:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Bull Markets Are Dangerous
Replies: 152
Views: 18659

Re: Why Bull Markets Are Dangerous

That kind of everyday euphoria was pretty apparent in bitcoin last year. Still have not seen it in stocks just yet.
by z3r0c00l
Sat Sep 08, 2018 8:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: windfall
Replies: 22
Views: 2018

Re: windfall

A pay cut in a few years seems fine to me, I would max out that 401K at a minimum, and start contributing catch up funds once you can legally do so at 50. Agree that it is peculiar to make 220K a year and only have a few hundred K saved by now but hey, you have a home mostly paid off so that should ...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Aug 24, 2018 9:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Include Bonds in Portfolio?
Replies: 19
Views: 1981

Re: Include Bonds in Portfolio?

I’m 32 and used to be 90/10, but I got rid of my bonds last week. Here are my reasons: 1. Not much difference between 10% bonds and 0% bonds. If the next crash comes it’s gonna hurt either way. Might as well put that 10% to work. 2. If you are patient the market always comes back. 3. If bonds ever ...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Aug 21, 2018 6:16 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Union at Fed job
Replies: 20
Views: 1968

Re: Union at Fed job

Across several industries, and in my life as a customer and citizen, every single ongoing relationship I have had with unions and union employees have been poor. The employees are seemingly forced to greatly reduce their responsiveness and output by the union, or perhaps they always wanted to do tha...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Aug 20, 2018 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 1-2 year high growth mutual fund
Replies: 3
Views: 315

Re: 1-2 year high growth mutual fund

1-2 year CDs or a 2 year Treasury Note. Not much else out there.
by z3r0c00l
Fri Aug 17, 2018 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity 401(k) millionaires hits record high
Replies: 48
Views: 5744

Re: Fidelity 401(k) millionaires hits record high

Defining middle class as the average is a mistake in a country where the majority are poor or lower income. We could go with income, however this discussion is about net worth. Living paycheck-to-paycheck on $50,000 a year might put you in the middle class by income. But in a discussion of wealth, a...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Aug 17, 2018 9:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity 401(k) millionaires hits record high
Replies: 48
Views: 5744

Re: Fidelity 401(k) millionaires hits record high

Today's million is like having $475,000 in 1988. Not that I would ever look down on that amount, let alone a million in modern dollars. But it doesn't quite mean what it used to. In another few decades, anyone saving for the future should have a million accumulated pretty quickly. At some point bet...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Aug 17, 2018 8:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity 401(k) millionaires hits record high
Replies: 48
Views: 5744

Re: Fidelity 401(k) millionaires hits record high

Today's million is like having $475,000 in 1988. Not that I would ever look down on that amount, let alone a million in modern dollars. But it doesn't quite mean what it used to. In another few decades, anyone saving for the future should have a million accumulated pretty quickly. At some point betw...
by z3r0c00l
Thu Aug 09, 2018 6:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Have you rebalanced to bonds this year?
Replies: 25
Views: 2289

Re: Have you rebalanced to bonds this year?

Yes, thousands! Happy to do it, it is paying 3.15% now.
by z3r0c00l
Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:19 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Better investments than the stock market?
Replies: 13
Views: 2352

Re: Better investments than the stock market?

Yes without any snark you should know that earning money and saving money is more important, in most cases, than investing. Most of your efforts should be focused on earning more money and saving more of what you earn. Only after decades of savings will your annual investment returns occasionally ex...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Aug 07, 2018 6:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Age in Bonds" fails almost everyone
Replies: 217
Views: 13835

Re: "Age in Bonds" fails almost everyone

Age-10 works for me, as equally arbitrary as every other recommendation and tapering scheme. The value of any rule of thumb is simplicity and automatic IPS that a layperson can stick with. I doubt anything between 20% bonds for life and age in bonds will make that much of a difference in the long ru...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Aug 04, 2018 8:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Market Timing Bonds vs. Money Market with Rising Interest Rates
Replies: 27
Views: 3108

Re: Market Timing Bonds vs. Money Market with Rising Interest Rates

I honestly don't get it "at the Macro Level". When the Fed announces that we are finally raising rates (2016), is it not clear to everyone that we will most likely be in a 2-4 year window of increasing interest rates? I certainly wouldn't try to time individual hikes, but the business cycle is the ...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Aug 03, 2018 6:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Home is *just* outside flood zone - how much flood insurance do I buy?
Replies: 50
Views: 3074

Re: Home is *just* outside flood zone - how much flood insurance do I buy?

The flood risk was drastically underestimated in Texas, especially new construction near drainage systems and reservoirs which exacerbated the flooding due to bad design. Can you share information about the kind of land this was built on and how new the construction is? There might be records with t...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Jul 30, 2018 9:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So go the FAANG, so goes the market?
Replies: 41
Views: 4661

Re: So go the FAANG, so goes the market?

Some of these companies have an absurd valuation, Amazon in particular. However others, like Apple and Alphabet, are highly profitable. I might argue that they have a giant market cap for legitimate reasons.
by z3r0c00l
Sat Jul 28, 2018 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Facebook stock in freefall! (20% drop in 1-day)
Replies: 120
Views: 11233

Re: Facebook stock in freefall! (20% drop in 1-day)

I am old school and would rather invest in a company that “makes something”. Like rather invest in Tesla any day than an ad or service based company like Facebook. I remember ribbing colleagues who got in on FB their IPO and watched it drop from what they bought it at. I think it is up like 400% fr...