Search found 1162 matches

by z3r0c00l
Mon Oct 22, 2018 8:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shouldn't Fridays be higher than average due to 401k contributions?
Replies: 36
Views: 1900

Re: Shouldn't Fridays be higher than average due to 401k contributions?

It seems to me most of the daily noise in the stock market is the result of speculation and high frequency or day trading. It is a necessary evil perhaps, however somewhat of a distraction of the business of owning stocks for most of us. Doubt that 401Ks have the volume or regularity to move the nee...
by z3r0c00l
Sun Oct 21, 2018 8:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Quitting w/o notice
Replies: 124
Views: 6939

Re: Quitting w/o notice

Think of the reverse situation: if they wanted to get rid of you, they will do it on the spot, with a security escort. My company gave us a month's warning before layoffs were to take effect. I know that is rare, but that kind of thing helps with employee loyalty. No one stole anything or spoke to ...
by z3r0c00l
Sun Oct 21, 2018 8:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Quitting w/o notice
Replies: 124
Views: 6939

Re: Quitting w/o notice

Think of the reverse situation: if they wanted to get rid of you, they will do it on the spot, with a security escort. My company gave us a month's warning before layoffs were to take effect. I know that is rare, but that kind of thing helps with employee loyalty. No one stole anything or spoke to ...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Oct 20, 2018 10:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond Market Fund - interest rates rising!
Replies: 116
Views: 10798

Re: Total Bond Market Fund - interest rates rising!

After listening to the discussion on the board here for some time, I went with an allocation to TBM in the spring of 2016, two and half years ago. My average buy-in price was 10.86. The current TBM price is 10.26. That is a NAV loss of 5.5% in 2.5 years, for a supposedly safe investment. How do you...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Oct 20, 2018 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Heavy Loss in Stable Value Fund of 401k investments
Replies: 31
Views: 3687

Re: Heavy Loss in Stable Value Fund of 401k investments

Yikes, glad I selected the intermediate bond fund instead. The stable value fund in our 401K (Galliard Capital, iirc) has the highest er of any option, over .5%, and is so complex as to be basically opaque to an outsider like me. If I don't understand how it works, I generally avoid it. By compariso...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Oct 20, 2018 10:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are bonds the Maginot Line of Modern Investing?
Replies: 42
Views: 3626

Re: Are bonds the Maginot Line of Modern Investing?

In the 1940's and early 1950's, cash and short-term bonds were slaughtered. All fixed income securities were slaughtered due to the government not allowing yields to go up to reflect ongoing high inflation. Gold ownership was illegal. There were no obvious shelters, people having been just burned b...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Oct 20, 2018 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: “The Worst Kind of Bear Market”
Replies: 23
Views: 4461

Re: “The Worst Kind of Bear Market”

Magnitude matters too. A slow, creeping decline of 10% real per decade is still preferable to the ability of stocks to drop 20% in one day, and 90% in a year or two. I would hate to sell bonds that were down 10%, but imagine if stocks were down 90% and you also lose your job 5 years from retirement,...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Oct 19, 2018 3:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bad time to invest in govt bonds?
Replies: 20
Views: 2574

Re: Bad time to invest in govt bonds?

The issue is, they can't actually predict this. Preemption and trillions of dollars of smart money, along with stochastic economic and political events, prevent anyone from predicting the future of interest rates across the bond market. It seems reasonable to expect interest rates to keep going up ...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Oct 19, 2018 2:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bad time to invest in govt bonds?
Replies: 20
Views: 2574

Re: Bad time to invest in govt bonds?

Sounds like a strong prediction that interest rates will indeed rise? That was the point of this thread. It seems like people are highly confident that interest rates will continue to rise (or at least the probability sits in that favor), so I was wondering how my investment strategy change in lieu...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Oct 19, 2018 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond Market Fund - interest rates rising!
Replies: 116
Views: 10798

Re: Total Bond Market Fund - interest rates rising!

Long CDs won out over this small time period, however that says nothing about what will happen over the next few years. Total bond now paying %3.something and could easily have a few percent cap gains if interest rates go back down in a recession. It is still a question of liquidity and flexibility ...
by z3r0c00l
Thu Oct 18, 2018 6:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: StreetShares bonds
Replies: 23
Views: 1874

Re: Street Smart bonds

How does a company targeting vets or other financially vulnerable groups make you feel better? This is the same as all the gold coin offers going to one side of the political aisle, they are just targeting people who have signaled that they are credulous or vulnerable. The same for payday loans and...
by z3r0c00l
Wed Oct 17, 2018 6:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: StreetShares bonds
Replies: 23
Views: 1874

Re: Street Smart bonds

How does a company targeting vets or other financially vulnerable groups make you feel better? This is the same as all the gold coin offers going to one side of the political aisle, they are just targeting people who have signaled that they are credulous or vulnerable. The same for payday loans and ...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Oct 13, 2018 10:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New 401k confusion with market
Replies: 19
Views: 1518

Re: New 401k confusion with market

Not many people making money this year and if they are, they are probably taking on risks that will cost them more in future years. It feels crummy, but one must get used to this feeling. You surely knew that stocks and bonds can go down sometimes, I presume. Well this year, they have gone down a bit.
by z3r0c00l
Sat Oct 13, 2018 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rebalance to bonds in 401k (timing)
Replies: 3
Views: 279

Re: Rebalance to bonds in 401k (timing)

I re-balance if things are off by more than 5%. Anything less than that doesn't seem statistically significant, if you will. I doubt even 10% variations make a huge difference in the behavior of a portfolio all that much. New money will go into the area that is short, of course, but I make no specia...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Oct 12, 2018 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: anybody sell I Bonds to buy something else?
Replies: 38
Views: 3469

Re: anybody sell I Bonds to buy something else?

Not yet, they are the bulk of my emergency fund too and now also serving as part of savings to buy a home. (The worst i-bonds over 5 years old will get pushed out when buying a home.) It may be that you can better CD rates now, but you can't get the inflation protection guarantee elsewhere.
by z3r0c00l
Fri Oct 12, 2018 8:00 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: “$1000/month job is worth $300k in retirement funds” // What are some retirement jobs you would actually enjoy doing?
Replies: 103
Views: 9623

Re: “$1000/month job is worth $300k in retirement funds” // What are some retirement jobs you would actually enjoy doing

Rather than try to drop into a new job at 55-65, which is more difficult than some might think (to just become a teacher suddenly, for example, as if it were the kind of job just anyone can do on a whim), I suggest cultivating a healthy set of side jobs and consulting opportunities while you are sti...
by z3r0c00l
Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Budget Coffee
Replies: 51
Views: 3133

Re: Budget Coffee

I tend to like light roasts and spend ~$16 / lb whole beans but got some New England Coffee the other day at about $6 / lb and didn't think it was all that bad. I'll probably stick with the local higher end stuff but am curious to try more of the cheap stuff. What do you all like for coffee say und...
by z3r0c00l
Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The benefits of international diversification - NOT: Hulbert
Replies: 80
Views: 5226

Re: The benefits of international diversification - NOT: Hulbert

I go back and forth on international diversification. I started out with none then read Bernstein’s books and decided to allocate 20% to it. While looking in my 401(k) one share of S&P 500 is roughly $160 a share and in my wifes 403(b) one share of S&P 500 (VIIIX) was $250 a share. Meanwhile my int...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When to buy some form of US bonds?
Replies: 6
Views: 996

Re: When to buy some form of US bonds?

Timing the bond market is such a laughable concept, what exactly do you know that governments and corporations with $1 trillion worth of them don't? And by the way, few of them expected the relatively sudden price drop last week. We can only speak in past tense here. It is perhaps a bit better time ...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Oct 08, 2018 5:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market decline in 2019 ?
Replies: 73
Views: 6483

Re: Market decline in 2019 ?

markcoop wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:12 pm
I just don't know how to do know when the valuation is high enough or low enough.
No one does and that is the crux of this issue, you simply cannot predict the next 10 years of the stock market. The case for predicting 20-30 years is much stronger but still not a lock.
by z3r0c00l
Mon Oct 08, 2018 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why 401k does not have option to invest in Govt Bonds
Replies: 16
Views: 646

Re: Why 401k does not have option to invest in Govt Bonds

Yes US Treasuries. When I look at investment options I see options like Vanguard Total Bond Index etc. In the description it says, the fund invests in 80% rated bonds and may invest 20% in unrated bonds. I am all for having more 401K choices, since I don't have a ton in mine. However since your 401...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Oct 06, 2018 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bump Rate CD decisions
Replies: 3
Views: 408

Re: Bump Rate CD decisions

I would, no promise they will increase it again. 3.15 is good for 3 years.
by z3r0c00l
Sat Oct 06, 2018 1:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Plan For Depleting Your Investments If No Heirs?
Replies: 39
Views: 4677

Re: Plan For Depleting Your Investments If No Heirs?

Plan to leave excess to non-profits when I die.
by z3r0c00l
Sat Oct 06, 2018 8:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I sell my rental properties?
Replies: 6
Views: 753

Re: Should I sell my rental properties?

I don't think the income in these two markets seems worth the cost of keeping the properties. I don't see insurance and other expenses, and already you are just breaking even against mortgage, I presume before taxes. It just doesn't strike me as a useful source of income if the homes more or less on...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Oct 06, 2018 8:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Fund TTM data interpretation
Replies: 4
Views: 327

Re: Bond Fund TTM data interpretation

Past 12 months I see a decline in NAV of 4.74% (10.77 to 10.26) in the chart. Looks like you are pretty much on target here, our dates are off a bit though. It seems like overall performance is mostly a combination of NAV change and income. A pretty serious decline in one year for this fund. It is n...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Oct 05, 2018 9:11 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Move out of bonds into CDs?
Replies: 2
Views: 552

Re: Move out of bonds into CDs?

The interest rates JUST jumped and the bond funds dropped an amount that, for them, was pretty significant. This would be a strange time to sell them since they are a significantly better deal today than when you purchased them. I doubt there are any winning strategies for timing securities, but if ...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Oct 05, 2018 8:25 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My company does not offer 401k match, should I forego contributing to it?
Replies: 13
Views: 1185

Re: My company does not offer 401k match, should I forego contributing to it?

Whatever you save in taxes, be it 12% or 28%, will earn money for decades. It is worth it without the match. In addition, many 401Ks offer cheap loans and the money is protected from bankruptcy and civil judgments.
by z3r0c00l
Thu Oct 04, 2018 12:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Long or medium bonds
Replies: 88
Views: 5551

Re: Long or medium bonds

Long just doesn't make sense right now... I've been hearing that for so long it's getting old, I've been hearing about the so called bond apocalypse due to rising interest rates for so many years I've started to tune out. It hasn't happened yet, meanwhile long term bonds continue to outperform. EDV...
by z3r0c00l
Wed Oct 03, 2018 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Long or medium bonds
Replies: 88
Views: 5551

Re: Long or medium bonds

5 year pays 2.95% and 30 year pays 3.22%. Seems like a no-brainer with the curve basically flat. Many advocate for bonds because they sometimes zig when stocks zag. In that case, going long makes sense. However the real reason for bonds is their every-day low volatility, in good times and bad. In th...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Oct 02, 2018 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Barron's Making the Case for Gold
Replies: 122
Views: 8749

Re: Barron's Making the Case for Gold

Why gold rather than platinum or silver? The latter two have declined precipitously the past few years. Heck, platinum is cheaper than gold right now, I can't recall when that was the case before. Just listen to commercials on AM talk radio or watch commercials on Fox News and you'll understand why...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Oct 02, 2018 9:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Barron's Making the Case for Gold
Replies: 122
Views: 8749

Re: Barron's Making the Case for Gold

Why gold rather than platinum or silver? The latter two have declined precipitously the past few years. Heck, platinum is cheaper than gold right now, I can't recall when that was the case before. In the event, my opinion on gold is best explained by Buffet (short version): “You could take all the g...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Oct 02, 2018 7:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why won't the US markets average 0-2% (or 10-20%) real returns for a few decades?
Replies: 20
Views: 2790

Re: Why won't the US markets average 0-2% (or 10-20%) real returns for a few decades?

The markets cannot be predicted, although past performance is all we have to go on. The next few decades could have lower returns. If there is a secular shift in the future, it could be because of changing demographics in the developed world.
by z3r0c00l
Mon Oct 01, 2018 8:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My biggest mistake - market timing
Replies: 62
Views: 8994

Re: My biggest mistake - market timing

Actually made the mistake twice; pulling out, and now struggling to invest again due to "all time highs" which occur most years.

Consider that you may not have the grit for investing in stocks. There is no harm in that, you may just have to save a bit more or work a bit longer.
by z3r0c00l
Fri Sep 28, 2018 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: understanding how bond funds make or lose money
Replies: 5
Views: 760

Re: understanding how bond funds make or lose money

Reasonable enough, however I would note that a 25% loss of NAV in a moderate bond fund is almost unheard of. More realistic would be what we have just gone through, a flat year or 1 or 2% drop in NAV. The real risk in bonds is harder to see while it happens: their failure to keep pace with inflation...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Sep 28, 2018 8:25 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to do with cash in the short term?
Replies: 36
Views: 3002

Re: What to do with cash in the short term?

+1 vote for a CD but I want to manage your expectations. Given the current and projected near future inflation rates, a 2 year CD will basically keep you on pace with inflation, and certainly no more after taxes. That's all you can hope for safely. A 2 year Treasury Note is offering a bit more but I...
by z3r0c00l
Thu Sep 27, 2018 9:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lobbying for a bond index fund in employer 401K, approach?
Replies: 9
Views: 851

Re: Lobbying for a bond index fund in employer 401K, approach?

Principal Global Multi-Strategy Fund Institutional Class Shares (PSMIX) 2.25% Wow what a stinker, and it has only 750 million under management now and the ER will keep going up as that number drops. I'd like to find out who is getting kickbacks to include this option, or how they made the choice. T...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Sep 24, 2018 5:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in the Rare Opportunity
Replies: 59
Views: 4548

Re: Investing in the Rare Opportunity

Note that a person with a few million and a good job already isn't exactly wasting their life... you can live a very nice life while continuing to work. Balance!
by z3r0c00l
Mon Sep 24, 2018 6:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in the Rare Opportunity
Replies: 59
Views: 4548

Re: Investing in the Rare Opportunity

If I already had 2 M at 40, I would certainly gamble for the bigger payout in a few years. If it went IPO you could be fabulously wealthy a few years later. That is worth it imho since you already have 2M safe and secure.
by z3r0c00l
Sun Sep 23, 2018 9:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: NYC weekend house: your experiences?
Replies: 18
Views: 2786

Re: NYC weekend house: your experiences?

Most important part of my life as a child, the ability to spend time in the country while growing up in the city. If you can afford it, the only question is where to get the country home. Are you more a woods and lake type or a ocean type? : ) Long Island and NJ both good picks imho.
by z3r0c00l
Sun Sep 23, 2018 8:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity: REIT funds
Replies: 8
Views: 1117

Re: Fidelity: REIT funds

REITs are real estate like gold mining stocks are gold. Correlated for sure, but not the same thing. I wouldn't consider it an investment in real estate, just a focus on a specific kind of stock.
by z3r0c00l
Sun Sep 23, 2018 6:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I-savings bonds: To do or not to do
Replies: 10
Views: 1563

Re: I-savings bonds: To do or not to do

Yes I personally prefer these to CDs as long as $10,000 a year is sufficient to meet your needs. It meets my needs for this kind of safe investment (3rd tier emergency fund) so I buy them each year to keep the right ratio with stocks. It resembles a 5 year, infinite raise-your-rate CD in my mind. .3...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Sep 17, 2018 5:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Advisor suggesting 7 Bond funds for my 40%
Replies: 44
Views: 5372

Re: Vanguard Advisor suggesting 7 Bond funds for my 40%

hulburt1 wrote:
Sun Sep 16, 2018 11:02 pm
Why bonds. In the last 10 years what would you have made. I'm 5% mm and 95% in stocks In the last 10 years I'm up 15% per year.
Why would a 10 year bull market be a useful time frame for deciding why bonds? Bonds: because the market doesn't always go up for 10 years.
by z3r0c00l
Sun Sep 16, 2018 7:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does cash at Ally count in my asset allocation?
Replies: 22
Views: 1971

Re: Does cash at Ally count in my asset allocation?

I don't count my emergency fund as part of the AA. It becomes relatively small compared to your total life savings in most cases.
by z3r0c00l
Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Employer won't Match 401k. Why?
Replies: 52
Views: 5584

Re: Employer won't Match 401k. Why?

My company (large but non-profit) got rid of our 401K match a few years back, in exchange for not weakening the pension terms. That was a strong push by the union, for obvious reasons, but was a real disappointment to people like me with the discipline to save. Clearly it would be much cheaper to dr...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Sep 15, 2018 9:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Side Hustle Options/Suggestions.
Replies: 99
Views: 10200

Re: Side Hustle Options/Suggestions.

I buy items at yard sales and thrift stores and resell them online. It does require book keeping but it's enough money that it's changed our lives completely. How is that these days?? Still going strong? This was great money back in early 2000s. I stopped doing after a graduated college and started...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Sep 14, 2018 8:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Job burnout - Keep grinding or change?
Replies: 62
Views: 6689

Re: Job burnout - Keep grinding or change?

This is one of the best job hunting environments in a generation, so it would be a good time to search for another, perhaps better paying, perhaps more enjoyable position. I completely agree with finding a balance and being able to enjoy life before it is too late. I plan to retire or at least mostl...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Sep 10, 2018 6:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Commodities have never been cheaper - time to buy?
Replies: 46
Views: 5140

Re: Commodities have never been cheaper - time to buy?

What if they are cheaper because they are bad investments and there is a surplus that is growing despite a roaring US economy and middling international recovery?
by z3r0c00l
Sun Sep 09, 2018 6:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Bull Markets Are Dangerous
Replies: 152
Views: 19167

Re: Why Bull Markets Are Dangerous

That kind of everyday euphoria was pretty apparent in bitcoin last year. Still have not seen it in stocks just yet.
by z3r0c00l
Sat Sep 08, 2018 8:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: windfall
Replies: 22
Views: 2027

Re: windfall

A pay cut in a few years seems fine to me, I would max out that 401K at a minimum, and start contributing catch up funds once you can legally do so at 50. Agree that it is peculiar to make 220K a year and only have a few hundred K saved by now but hey, you have a home mostly paid off so that should ...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Aug 24, 2018 9:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Include Bonds in Portfolio?
Replies: 19
Views: 1987

Re: Include Bonds in Portfolio?

I’m 32 and used to be 90/10, but I got rid of my bonds last week. Here are my reasons: 1. Not much difference between 10% bonds and 0% bonds. If the next crash comes it’s gonna hurt either way. Might as well put that 10% to work. 2. If you are patient the market always comes back. 3. If bonds ever ...