Search found 1069 matches

by z3r0c00l
Mon Jun 11, 2018 5:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dividend Buffer
Replies: 24
Views: 2239

Re: Dividend Buffer

SP500 dividend yield is actually below the rate of inflation. While that statement might be true, what matters is whether the rate of increase in dividends exceeds the rate of inflation. Historically speaking, it has. Though I haven't seen any studies, I would suspect the dividend growth rate is hi...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Jun 08, 2018 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dividend Buffer
Replies: 24
Views: 2239

Re: Dividend Buffer

Dividends have fallen considerably in the last few decades, due to some extent on tax policy that makes buybacks more attractive. SP500 dividend yield is actually below the rate of inflation. This withdrawal rate is so conservative that even a conservative like myself thinks you will deprive yoursel...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Jun 08, 2018 7:45 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Funds
Replies: 7
Views: 765

Re: Bond Funds

A quick and depressing reminder: you won't grow 3% after taxes and inflation. (2018 inflation likely to be around 2.6%.) If anything, expect to about break even after taxes and inflation. Low risk - low return is in effect here. A 5 year CD will give you 3% without volatility, an intermediate bond f...
by z3r0c00l
Tue May 29, 2018 10:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The Side Hustle
Replies: 65
Views: 8162

Re: The Side Hustle

I work in online education on the graduate level in my field. Amounts to about an extra $1000 per month in a good year. Online education is great because you can contribute to it at any time when you are free, could be late at night, early mornings. And helping to shape the minds of the next generat...
by z3r0c00l
Wed May 23, 2018 7:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Typical interest rate earned by target date funds in retirement?
Replies: 28
Views: 2030

Re: Typical interest rate earned by target date funds in retirement?

Is there a common interest rate that people use once they enter retirement and begin drawing retirement? For instance, would a target date earn 3% interest once it reaches the target date (on average, over 30 years)? Interest isn't really the right term. You have price appreciation and dividends (w...
by z3r0c00l
Tue May 22, 2018 5:30 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Total Bond Market
Replies: 12
Views: 1957

Re: Total Bond Market

The fund becomes more attractive as the yield goes up. You pay a price in lower NAV if you hold during the change. The pros: Low volatility The cons: Low return I think assuming what bonds will do in the future is a losing game. What if interest rates settle out around this level and stay there for ...
by z3r0c00l
Sun May 20, 2018 9:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Re: done with Gmail
Replies: 114
Views: 12194

Re: done with Gmail

Been using Gmail almost from its first day, have a dozen accounts and they all work well, now easy to run them all tabbed as needed. Almost unlimited storage, free, simple, what more does one want? I use outlook for work through MS Office 360. It has the power options we need at a large company. Ano...
by z3r0c00l
Sun May 20, 2018 6:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sub-par options from employer 403b
Replies: 7
Views: 223

Re: Sub-par options from employer 403b

Not to pile on, but I would die for some of these in my 401K. They are 10x cheaper than any of my options. "Vanguard Institutional Index Fund Institutional Shares (VINIX)" is a remarkably cheap fund, institutional class, with a $5 million minimum for individuals. Whoever is picking these funds is ma...
by z3r0c00l
Sun May 20, 2018 6:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: $1,700,000 from family trust...
Replies: 59
Views: 8193

Re: $1,700,000 from family trust...

Congrats on the windfall! I would indeed suggest taking it slow at first, putting the money in a safe place while you decide how to us it. A safe place is a bank account, money market fund, etc. First, I would max out your 401K. Your tax bracket appears poised to go up. Paying down debt is absolutel...
by z3r0c00l
Wed May 16, 2018 7:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: YTD: VBTLX down 2.28%; VBILX down 2.99%; VTSAX down 0.23%
Replies: 106
Views: 10449

Re: YTD: VBTLX down 2.28%; VBILX down 2.99%; VTSAX down 0.23%

I would describe the last few months as "sideways." Boring yes, but nothing to worry about.
by z3r0c00l
Wed May 16, 2018 6:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Friend says "Stock market will crash, invest in silver" - thoughts?
Replies: 127
Views: 8138

Re: Friend says "Stock market will crash, invest in silver" - thoughts?

“Today the world’s gold stock is about 170,000 metric tons. If all of this gold were melded together, it would form a cube of about 68 feet per side. (Picture it fitting comfortably within a baseball infield.) At $1,750 per ounce – gold’s price as I write this – its value would be $9.6 trillion. Cal...
by z3r0c00l
Tue May 15, 2018 6:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good idea investing now in long term funds?
Replies: 57
Views: 4314

Re: Good idea investing now in long term funds?

The yield curve is getting so flat, you are minimally rewarded for even going to intermediate-term bonds, let alone long. I go intermediate, 6 years, for the slightly more than 3% yield but would never go to 10 or 20 years for a few bp more. Having said this, I wouldn't make assumptions about future...
by z3r0c00l
Tue May 15, 2018 6:09 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How can I clear $40-60,000/yr with $1,000,000 cash... Low Risk?
Replies: 71
Views: 10765

Re: How can I clear $40-60,000/yr with $1,000,000 cash... Low Risk?

Everyone touting a bond fund or CD should note that the OP wanted 4 - 5% after tax. Inflation is important to consider too, since inflation is working its way steadily to 3%. The only decent shot at reliably making these returns after tax would be to invest in a mix of stocks and bonds, mostly stock...
by z3r0c00l
Mon May 14, 2018 6:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I decrease my international exposure?
Replies: 8
Views: 945

Re: Should I decrease my international exposure?

Going 100% total U.S gives even higher returns however I am am hesitant to go this route just yet. They just switch back and forth every few years in performance. That is a good argument for owning both, and is the same as the argument in favor of owning the whole US market rather than picking thos...
by z3r0c00l
Sat May 12, 2018 10:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with I bond redemptions
Replies: 1
Views: 411

Re: Help with I bond redemptions

This only makes sense if you plan to pass in the near future. If not, the bonds should be held as long as they serve the purpose you initially got them for. Treasury direct is not so bad that people need to anticipate their own death to avoid dealing with it.
by z3r0c00l
Sat May 12, 2018 8:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond - SEC yield breaks 3%
Replies: 104
Views: 12628

Re: Total Bond - SEC yield breaks 3%

I didn’t state that CDs are mostly defeating inflation (though your claim otherwise is unsubstantiated); I said that it is happening currently. I did not say a EWP was a benefit, obviously the word penalty is present. It’s unfortunate you read me as saying that. What I did say is that it has a bene...
by z3r0c00l
Fri May 11, 2018 7:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond - SEC yield breaks 3%
Replies: 104
Views: 12628

Re: Total Bond - SEC yield breaks 3%

Wrong. My point is that such arguments are fatally flawed if they do not accurately account for the beneficial effects on interest rate risk of the EWP present in many direct CDs. I also corrected some important inaccuracies about the higher yield of the total bond fund relative to CDs; the yield p...
by z3r0c00l
Thu May 10, 2018 7:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: move out of bonds into money market and online savings
Replies: 19
Views: 2715

Re: move out of bonds into money market and online savings

If bonds were attractive when you bought them during the past few years, they are more attractive now. And significantly so in some cases. My monthly bond dividends have almost doubled.

By the way, a balanced bond fund is now down, year to date, about what stocks lose in a single not so great day.
by z3r0c00l
Thu May 10, 2018 7:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond - SEC yield breaks 3%
Replies: 104
Views: 12628

Re: Total Bond - SEC yield breaks 3%

Does this mean that I get 3% dividend if I put money in this fund? ie is it like I get a 3% dividend , just like a cd but better .... but caveat that my principal might go down? This always confuses me ie ... is the yield shown ie 3.00% here .. a genuine firm figure that I can bet the farm on? Not ...
by z3r0c00l
Mon May 07, 2018 7:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond - SEC yield breaks 3%
Replies: 104
Views: 12628

Re: Total Bond - SEC yield breaks 3%

Does this mean that I get 3% dividend if I put money in this fund? ie is it like I get a 3% dividend , just like a cd but better .... but caveat that my principal might go down? This always confuses me ie ... is the yield shown ie 3.00% here .. a genuine firm figure that I can bet the farm on? Not ...
by z3r0c00l
Mon May 07, 2018 6:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Factors Suggesting One Should Buy SPIA
Replies: 90
Views: 6813

Re: Factors Suggesting One Should Buy SPIA

My biggest reason for not planning on using an annuity is a strong pension starting at 55 which, with SS later in life, should cover most expenses. These monthly checks will cover everyday expenses, with 401k and other savings serving to pay for all the good things in retirement.
by z3r0c00l
Fri May 04, 2018 7:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Starting to smell like buying season?
Replies: 55
Views: 6566

Re: Starting to smell like buying season?

greg24 wrote:
Thu May 03, 2018 10:28 am
Still at historically high PE10.

Image
Back down to Black Tuesday levels? Sounds good to me.
by z3r0c00l
Thu May 03, 2018 6:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffet Empire in One Giant Chart
Replies: 11
Views: 2952

Re: Warren Buffet Empire in One Giant Chart

What would a powerful scientist even look like? Edison. He has a lab, hires other scientists to work in his lab (Tesla) Edison was not a research scientist, an inventor and businessman better describes it. He was more like Steve Jobs, to pick a contemporary example. The most powerful and prolific s...
by z3r0c00l
Wed May 02, 2018 6:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffet Empire in One Giant Chart
Replies: 11
Views: 2952

Re: Warren Buffet Empire in One Giant Chart

Is it troubling that a "capital allocator" has so much more power than scientists and engineers Who goes into those fields for power? Science and engineering as a whole wield vast power over civilization, few of those companies would even exist without them, but individuals who seek power need to b...
by z3r0c00l
Tue May 01, 2018 6:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I-bond fixed rate = 0.3%
Replies: 62
Views: 7369

Re: I-bond fixed rate = 0.3%

All those suckers who bought at 0.1% can hang their heads now. :twisted: Does the Treasury disclose how they determine fixed rate? Would love to do a quick interview with the person or team who set this rate to determine what their goals are for the program and what they are seeking, such as a mini...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Apr 27, 2018 8:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ally online savings now at 1.60%
Replies: 180
Views: 29229

Re: Ally online savings now at 1.45%

Far better than Chase and Citi, but still lagging inflation significantly.
by z3r0c00l
Wed Apr 25, 2018 7:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unprecedented Event
Replies: 67
Views: 9183

Re: Unprecedented Event

Event like: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_electromagnetic_pulse The US EMP Commission published a rather depressing paper on the affect of a EMP event. I find the scary part is that there wouldn't be a need for mass use of nuclear weapons. And very little physical damage, other than our t...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Apr 24, 2018 8:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Salary Negotiation gone sour
Replies: 98
Views: 10286

Re: Salary Negotiation gone sour

By the way, I got the idea that compromise means what I said it means probably from learning the definition as a child. Gordon Gekko notwithstanding, the word has not substantially changed in meaning. Definition of compromise (Webster - emphasis mine) 1 a : settlement of differences by arbitration ...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Apr 24, 2018 5:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Salary Negotiation gone sour
Replies: 98
Views: 10286

Re: Salary Negotiation gone sour

By the way, I got the idea that compromise means what I said it means probably from learning the definition as a child. Gordon Gekko notwithstanding, the word has not substantially changed in meaning. Definition of compromise (Webster - emphasis mine) 1 a : settlement of differences by arbitration ...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Apr 24, 2018 6:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Salary Negotiation gone sour
Replies: 98
Views: 10286

Re: Salary Negotiation gone sour

It comes from evolutionary biology where social primates are finely attuned to fairness and compromise. A compromise is meeting about half-way, where each side gives about the same amount, meeting in the middle. There is something magical about that. All other options have one side sacrificing more...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Apr 23, 2018 9:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Salary Negotiation gone sour
Replies: 98
Views: 10286

Re: Salary Negotiation gone sour

I would have said "no thank you" when they came back with 85 and 15, they didn't signal a strong enough willingness to meet you half way. You had been offered much higher salaries to start and they kept dropping it. Who knows how the recruiter was playing both sides so I wouldn't assume the company...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Apr 23, 2018 5:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Spreading Bond Safety to Taxable [Portfolio help]
Replies: 14
Views: 1351

Re: Spreading Bond Safety to Taxable [Portfolio help]

Depends on how conservative you want to be. In theory you could sell bonds in your 401K, exchanging them for stocks there, and then sell stocks in taxable, if you need the money promptly. Of course that "Kansas City Shuffle" doesn't help me sleep well at night so I keep some bonds in taxable too. Th...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Apr 23, 2018 5:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Salary Negotiation gone sour
Replies: 98
Views: 10286

Re: Salary Negotiation gone sour

"Two business days later I got the answer that they could do 85k and 15% bonus target. Again the base was not enough so I countered with 88k at 12.5% bonus." I would have said "no thank you" when they came back with 85 and 15, they didn't signal a strong enough willingness to meet you half way. You ...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Apr 20, 2018 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why am I even holding BND? It has only been losing me money.
Replies: 62
Views: 8992

Re: Why am I even holding BND? It has only been losing me money.

So is it the right time now to buy bonds since rates are high already and bond funds prices have gone down? The right time to buy bonds is when your investment plan calls for them. You are really asking: "Is it right to time bonds?" And the answer is no, you are not equipped to predict the future i...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Apr 20, 2018 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone invest in I Bonds and why?
Replies: 44
Views: 5915

Re: Anyone invest in I Bonds and why?

Absolutely, $10,000 a year every November. Will continue to do it as long as needed. These bonds offer something that no bond fund or CD can in exchange for a minor 1 year lockout.
by z3r0c00l
Tue Apr 17, 2018 6:41 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to do with gifted individual losers and gainers?
Replies: 14
Views: 982

Re: What to do with gifted individual losers and gainers?

I would sell them all, perhaps over two tax years if the tax bill is going to be overwhelming. The loss on a few stocks could help counteract the capital gains on others, however I bet you made a very good return over all.
by z3r0c00l
Mon Apr 16, 2018 11:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cash instead of bonds?
Replies: 59
Views: 7295

Re: Cash instead of bonds?

I am confused. I just logged into my account, and the Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund Admiral Shares - VBTLX is showing me the fund average annual returns for 1 year as 1.11%. The Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund - VMMXX is showing the fund average annual returns for 1 year as 1.20%. What am ...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Apr 14, 2018 8:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle on stock turbulence: ‘never seen a market this volatile to this extent in my career’
Replies: 88
Views: 12848

Re: Bogle on stock turbulence: ‘never seen a market this volatile to this extent in my career’

For instance, consider how growth/inflation has affected the point totals of a market swing: 750 points in the 70s would be a day for the history books, today it would make sense as a monthly or weekly occurrence at the same standard deviation. That's a big part of it in the media anyway, they keep...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Apr 13, 2018 8:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Ditched bond fund for money market. Thoughts?
Replies: 40
Views: 4272

Re: Ditched bond fund for money market. Thoughts?

5 year CD or I bonds, absolutely, they are competitive without the volatility. But Total Bond is offering ca. 2.95%! Going to cash will cost you after inflation, which is likely also to increase in the years to come.

You had me at set it and forget it!
by z3r0c00l
Fri Apr 13, 2018 6:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it time to dump high yield savings for prime money market?
Replies: 128
Views: 19905

Re: Is it time to dump high yield savings for prime money market?

Easier to have short term cash linked directly to credit cards and direct deposit from work! If it was worth $50 per month or something, sure I'd do it. But this might earn me a dollar or two per month more.
by z3r0c00l
Fri Apr 13, 2018 6:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How often is the daily change in stock index due to just one or two stocks?
Replies: 2
Views: 282

Re: How often is the daily change in stock index due to just one or two stocks?

A big issue with such an index is that it can be highly skewed (and move out of lockstep with the broader market, represented well by the S&P 500 for example) if one giant stock makes a major move. It is also true that stocks are correlated in daily moves, usually moving up or down in unison. Theref...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Apr 13, 2018 10:32 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buy I-Bonds before May 1 or After?
Replies: 16
Views: 1907

Re: Buy I-Bonds before May 1 or After?

Made the choice years ago to buy in November each year. That continues because I don't want to put $10,000 in before the last year's $10,000 becomes liquid. The whole process is basically on auto-pilot, although I would be sad if the .1% fixed went back to zero.
by z3r0c00l
Fri Apr 13, 2018 10:28 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How Far is too Far, Commuting?
Replies: 211
Views: 12822

Re: Work Commute: How far is too far?

Mass transit vs driving is a big deal for me, since one can do work or sleep on the train. Here in NYC lots of us do 60 minutes each way, but that time is potentially useful. (And it is fairly cheap compared to driving and gas.) If I had to drive more than 45 minutes, I would start to consider eithe...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Apr 13, 2018 8:04 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why am I even holding BND? It has only been losing me money.
Replies: 62
Views: 8992

Re: Why am I even holding BND? It has only been losing me money.

You probably lost thousands in stocks since the high point in January. Meanwhile, the bond fund monthly dividends are up ca. 15%. It cost you to get here, but the bonds are now paying more and will catch up in due time. A 2.95% yield isn't so bad.
by z3r0c00l
Sat Apr 07, 2018 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can Big Tech Stocks Grow Without Limits?
Replies: 38
Views: 3178

Re: Can Big Tech Stocks Grow Without Limits?

As I say, apparently they really believe there are no limits, literally none . Try it sometime. Try to get an economist to agree that the earth cannot support a population of, say, 1 quadrillion. (0.5 square meters of earth's surface per person... seems do-able, yes?) (So, make that 1 quintillion)....
by z3r0c00l
Fri Apr 06, 2018 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle on stock turbulence: ‘never seen a market this volatile to this extent in my career’
Replies: 88
Views: 12848

Re: Mr. Bogle on recent volatility

Strange, it just looks like a lot of vacillation between 2650 and 2550, a bunch of 1-3% daily changes. Seems fairly normal for stocks and much less severe than 2008/2009. If anything, it was the run from November 2016 - January 2018 that was strange and frankly unnerving.
by z3r0c00l
Mon Apr 02, 2018 9:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Are Your Thoughts On The Recent Bitcoin Bust? Is It Apart of the Boom/Bust Cycle or Is The CryptoCurrency Finished?
Replies: 129
Views: 10195

Re: What Are Your Thoughts On The Recent Bitcoin Bust? Is It Apart of the Boom/Bust Cycle or Is The CryptoCurrency Finis

Bitcoin mining is environmentally destructive .... Did the online articles that you regurgitated this opinion from enumerate the amount of energy and "environmentally destructive" behavior that goes into maintianing our current financial system? Hint: Those massive 24/7 air-conditioned data centers...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Mar 30, 2018 8:01 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Cryptos- "Bear" with me here
Replies: 31
Views: 2586

Re: Cryptos- "Bear" with me here

Could always trade that bitcoin for a Semper Agustus.
by z3r0c00l
Wed Mar 28, 2018 7:25 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where do I invest TODAY?
Replies: 10
Views: 1361

Re: Where do I invest TODAY?

10 years from retirement? I don't think $2000 matters that much at this stage. I would put it in stocks and then just put the next $2000 where needed to balance. In a pinch, you could split it up evenly among the three choices.