Search found 1109 matches

by z3r0c00l
Fri Aug 17, 2018 9:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity 401(k) millionaires hits record high
Replies: 40
Views: 3284

Re: Fidelity 401(k) millionaires hits record high

Today's million is like having $475,000 in 1988. Not that I would ever look down on that amount, let alone a million in modern dollars. But it doesn't quite mean what it used to. In another few decades, anyone saving for the future should have a million accumulated pretty quickly. At some point bet...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Aug 17, 2018 8:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity 401(k) millionaires hits record high
Replies: 40
Views: 3284

Re: Fidelity 401(k) millionaires hits record high

Today's million is like having $475,000 in 1988. Not that I would ever look down on that amount, let alone a million in modern dollars. But it doesn't quite mean what it used to. In another few decades, anyone saving for the future should have a million accumulated pretty quickly. At some point betw...
by z3r0c00l
Thu Aug 09, 2018 6:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Have you rebalanced to bonds this year?
Replies: 25
Views: 2154

Re: Have you rebalanced to bonds this year?

Yes, thousands! Happy to do it, it is paying 3.15% now.
by z3r0c00l
Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:19 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Better investments than the stock market?
Replies: 13
Views: 2132

Re: Better investments than the stock market?

Yes without any snark you should know that earning money and saving money is more important, in most cases, than investing. Most of your efforts should be focused on earning more money and saving more of what you earn. Only after decades of savings will your annual investment returns occasionally ex...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Aug 07, 2018 6:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Age in Bonds" fails almost everyone
Replies: 217
Views: 12740

Re: "Age in Bonds" fails almost everyone

Age-10 works for me, as equally arbitrary as every other recommendation and tapering scheme. The value of any rule of thumb is simplicity and automatic IPS that a layperson can stick with. I doubt anything between 20% bonds for life and age in bonds will make that much of a difference in the long ru...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Aug 04, 2018 8:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Market Timing Bonds vs. Money Market with Rising Interest Rates
Replies: 27
Views: 2884

Re: Market Timing Bonds vs. Money Market with Rising Interest Rates

I honestly don't get it "at the Macro Level". When the Fed announces that we are finally raising rates (2016), is it not clear to everyone that we will most likely be in a 2-4 year window of increasing interest rates? I certainly wouldn't try to time individual hikes, but the business cycle is the ...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Aug 03, 2018 6:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Home is *just* outside flood zone - how much flood insurance do I buy?
Replies: 50
Views: 2826

Re: Home is *just* outside flood zone - how much flood insurance do I buy?

The flood risk was drastically underestimated in Texas, especially new construction near drainage systems and reservoirs which exacerbated the flooding due to bad design. Can you share information about the kind of land this was built on and how new the construction is? There might be records with t...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Jul 30, 2018 9:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So go the FAANG, so goes the market?
Replies: 41
Views: 4448

Re: So go the FAANG, so goes the market?

Some of these companies have an absurd valuation, Amazon in particular. However others, like Apple and Alphabet, are highly profitable. I might argue that they have a giant market cap for legitimate reasons.
by z3r0c00l
Sat Jul 28, 2018 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Facebook stock in freefall! (20% drop in 1-day)
Replies: 120
Views: 10741

Re: Facebook stock in freefall! (20% drop in 1-day)

I am old school and would rather invest in a company that “makes something”. Like rather invest in Tesla any day than an ad or service based company like Facebook. I remember ribbing colleagues who got in on FB their IPO and watched it drop from what they bought it at. I think it is up like 400% fr...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Jul 28, 2018 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Facebook stock in freefall! (20% drop in 1-day)
Replies: 120
Views: 10741

Re: Facebook stock in freefall! (20% drop in 1-day)

I am old school and would rather invest in a company that “makes something”. Like rather invest in Tesla any day than an ad or service based company like Facebook. I remember ribbing colleagues who got in on FB their IPO and watched it drop from what they bought it at. I think it is up like 400% fr...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Jul 28, 2018 9:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Bond Money, Flat Yield Curve, Rising Rates
Replies: 27
Views: 2220

Re: New Bond Money, Flat Yield Curve, Rising Rates

Trying to outhink trillions of dollars of smart money in the bond universe is a losing proposition. Even they seem to get it wrong much of the time. That's not to say short term bond funds or CDs are not a good alternative, they are quite suitable actually. However don't fool yourself into thinking ...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Jul 27, 2018 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Facebook stock in freefall! (20% drop in 1-day)
Replies: 120
Views: 10741

Re: Facebook stock in freefall! (20% drop in 1-day)

MotoTrojan wrote:
Fri Jul 27, 2018 10:49 am

Hmm as a casual user I’m shocked insta could be that much of the revenue generation.
It isn't yet, but with 1 billion monthly active users, and steady growth, it has potential.
by z3r0c00l
Fri Jul 27, 2018 5:58 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Allocation for 47 yo wanting to retire in 10 years
Replies: 19
Views: 2685

Re: Allocation for 47 yo wanting to retire in 10 years

I can't imagine living on $45,000 anywhere in the US in 2028, especially at an age where your medical costs will surely start going up. If inflation merely holds at 3% over that time, you are expecting to live on what is today in the low $30,000's. I would plan to work until early/mid 60's. You are ...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Jul 27, 2018 5:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Facebook stock in freefall! (20% drop in 1-day)
Replies: 120
Views: 10741

Re: Facebook stock in freefall! (20% drop in 1-day)

One out of every five humans uses Facebook each day.
by z3r0c00l
Fri Jul 27, 2018 4:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Facebook stock in freefall! (20% drop in 1-day)
Replies: 120
Views: 10741

Re: Facebook stock in freefall! (20% drop in 1-day)

Instagram was an incredible purchase at $1B and continues to thrive, It is now valued at $100 billion. Huh? The company Instagram was purchased by FB for 1 billion and they turned a 10,000% profit because it is currently valued at 100 billion. That explains a full 20% of the FB market cap. And thei...
by z3r0c00l
Thu Jul 26, 2018 7:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Facebook stock in freefall! (20% drop in 1-day)
Replies: 120
Views: 10741

Re: Facebook stock in freefall! (20% drop in 1-day)

Rick Rock wrote:
Thu Jul 26, 2018 7:37 pm
Instagram was an incredible purchase at $1B and continues to thrive,
It is now valued at $100 billion.
by z3r0c00l
Thu Jul 26, 2018 6:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Facebook stock in freefall! (20% drop in 1-day)
Replies: 120
Views: 10741

Re: Facebook stock in freefall! (20% drop in 1-day)

Facebook just reported 42% revenue growth to 13.2 billion. I'm not a fan but it certainly doesn't look like the end of the world. Exactly, as a company it is doing quite well. Maybe less quite well than expected. Share price was up 550% since IPO, 460% even with this drop. The PE ratio is abnormall...
by z3r0c00l
Thu Jul 26, 2018 3:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hold one stock 25 years
Replies: 68
Views: 6048

Re: Hold one stock 25 years

BRK makes sense because it is already something like a mutual fund, reasonably well diversified across a range of companies. I would select a company that is focused on the business of making profits and returning them to shareholders, not on global domination at any cost like Amazon. So that would ...
by z3r0c00l
Thu Jul 26, 2018 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FCA stock drops 15% following Marchionne's death: another argument against market cap weighting?
Replies: 45
Views: 3627

Re: FCA stock drops 15% following Marchionne's death: another argument against market cap weighting?

15% of 6% of 12% of my portfolio. And I suspect the drop is just temporary, the company will do what it was going to do all along, succeed or fail over the next few decades. Apple is the case against this fear, since no other company had such an outsize market cap with a corresponding cult of person...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Jul 09, 2018 5:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Article: Rich kids are counting on inheritance to pay for retirement
Replies: 31
Views: 4594

Re: Article: Rich kids are counting on inheritance to pay for retirement

I was already saving for the future at 16 so let's not say younger kids can't do the right thing. However it isn't that shocking to hear that wealthy kids, who were born in wealth like most wealthy Americans, are counting on inheriting that money later. They will mostly get an easy pathway to a pres...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Jul 09, 2018 5:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Street Smart bonds
Replies: 9
Views: 863

Re: Street Smart bonds

"Notes are a non-deposit investment product. Not FDIC insured. No guarantee. May lose value. StreetShares authorizes bank accounts by using a third party vendor, Plaid." They give precious little information about the fees or how the investment works. It looks like a P2P loan platform that takes adv...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Jul 07, 2018 9:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Trying to hit grand slam with small % portfolio?
Replies: 49
Views: 3390

Re: Trying to hit grand slam with small % portfolio?

DanMahowny wrote:
Sat Jul 07, 2018 3:52 pm
Grt2bOutdoors wrote:
Sat Jul 07, 2018 2:54 pm
DanMahowny wrote:
Sat Jul 07, 2018 2:44 pm
I took $70,000 and shorted TSLA stock
How’s that working out?
Good. Sold short at $355 and $365. TSLA closed at $308 yesterday.

On it's way to $0.
How quickly does it have to decline to counter the cost of borrowing shares?
by z3r0c00l
Tue Jul 03, 2018 6:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is now a good time to buy my way into a proper bond alloc?
Replies: 10
Views: 630

Re: Is now a good time to buy my way into a proper bond alloc?

Absolutely the right thing to do, and the right time is as soon as possible. I increase my bond holding percentage every 5 years by 5%. Recently bumped up the 401K after turning 35. If buying bonds was okay 5 years ago, it is better today. They are a better investment now than they were recently, a...
by z3r0c00l
Tue Jul 03, 2018 6:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is now a good time to buy my way into a proper bond alloc?
Replies: 10
Views: 630

Re: Is now a good time to buy my way into a proper bond alloc?

Absolutely the right thing to do, and the right time is as soon as possible. I increase my bond holding percentage every 5 years by 5%. Recently bumped up the 401K after turning 35. If buying bonds was okay 5 years ago, it is better today. They are a better investment now than they were recently, al...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Jul 02, 2018 8:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Expected returns for 80/20 stock bond for next 10 years.
Replies: 169
Views: 12643

Re: Expected returns for 80/20 stock bond for next 10 years.

I would put a bet down on the range between -50 and +100%. Wouldn't trust a prediction more specific than that.
by z3r0c00l
Mon Jul 02, 2018 7:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: bonds or bond funds?
Replies: 39
Views: 2386

Re: bonds or bond funds?

so my 401k contributions go into a stock fund. Since bond funds can lose money, I shy away from them. Just to be clear, you avoid bond funds because they sometimes lose a few percent per year and put all your money into stock funds which have lost 25% in one day on two occasions, and can easily dro...
by z3r0c00l
Mon Jul 02, 2018 6:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dumped my last stock
Replies: 11
Views: 2720

Re: Dumped my last stock

TSLA is great but this way, you can own all the car companies around the world. As long as the industry as a whole does well, you benefit. No need to pick horses since you are betting simply that some horses will make it to the finish line.
by z3r0c00l
Mon Jul 02, 2018 6:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do you own just 5% of anything?
Replies: 65
Views: 4933

Re: Do you own just 5% of anything?

Russell 2000 small cap, 5% of 401K which is less than 2.5% of total. Forced to combine a mix of market cap specific funds to approximate total US stock market and international. EM at 10% of 401K, for example.
by z3r0c00l
Mon Jul 02, 2018 6:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Hedge funds basically scams?
Replies: 36
Views: 3168

Re: Are Hedge funds basically scams?

It is no coincidence that Madoff used the idea of a hedge fund for cover. Hedge funds are where the wealthy go to feel like they are beating the market and the unsophisticated little guy through access to something special. It would be more infuriating if they were not ripping off people who are alr...
by z3r0c00l
Sun Jul 01, 2018 5:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Using the Total Bond Fund in a rising rate environment
Replies: 72
Views: 8819

Re: Using the Total Bond Fund in a rising rate environment

... because the fund buys and sells bonds. If a bond falls in price, the fund might sell that bond, and buy a new bond with a higher coupon rate at par. The new bond will thus pay more dividends, but will not rise back in price unless rates fall. Do bond fund managers know that holding a bond to ma...
by z3r0c00l
Sat Jun 30, 2018 9:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Using the Total Bond Fund in a rising rate environment
Replies: 72
Views: 8819

Re: Using the Total Bond Fund in a rising rate environment

The slightly depressed NAV will not go back up unless interest rates drop again. The increase in income should overcome this drop in NAV in time. A good review of the process linked below.

viewtopic.php?t=235345
by z3r0c00l
Sat Jun 30, 2018 7:30 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Feel like I'm sinking money into international
Replies: 100
Views: 11158

Re: Feel like I'm sinking money into international

The difference in performance is strong evidence in favor of holding international. If they did about the same, I would question the need for international. Keeping to global market cap is one of the few things keeping me okay with US stock valuations right now.
by z3r0c00l
Fri Jun 29, 2018 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Using the Total Bond Fund in a rising rate environment
Replies: 72
Views: 8819

Re: Using the Total Bond Fund in a rising rate environment

Just a quick reminder, but the worst ever DAY for US stocks was almost 10 times worse than the worst YEAR for this kind of bond fund. The volatility and risk is almost insignificant compared to stocks. The only real concern I have is bonds losing to unexpected, high inflation. And short bonds or CD...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Jun 29, 2018 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Using the Total Bond Fund in a rising rate environment
Replies: 72
Views: 8819

Re: Using the Total Bond Fund in a rising rate environment

Just a quick reminder, but the worst ever DAY for US stocks was almost 10 times worse than the worst YEAR for this kind of bond fund. The volatility and risk is almost insignificant compared to stocks. The only real concern I have is bonds losing to unexpected, high inflation. And short bonds or CDs...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Jun 29, 2018 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Using the Total Bond Fund in a rising rate environment
Replies: 72
Views: 8819

Re: Using the Total Bond Fund in a rising rate environment

"That is an absolute guarantee." Then I assume he is shorting long-term bonds? Yes rising interest rates may continue, I might even argue the odds are better than 50/50 of that. But it is not a guarantee at all. And the bond fund has already lost NAV, and is already paying more. It may not have bee...
by z3r0c00l
Wed Jun 27, 2018 5:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Keeping up with inflation
Replies: 24
Views: 1929

Re: Keeping up with inflation

I-bonds. Just about the only 100% safe investment that is guaranteed to keep pace, or nearly so, with inflation year in, year out. Liquid after 1 year, no penalty after 5. And they won't lose nominal value in the event of deflation either.
by z3r0c00l
Wed Jun 27, 2018 5:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I-Bond Logistics
Replies: 14
Views: 1875

Re: I-Bond Logistics

I also prefer tidy investing with fewer lots. Don't really feel that $1000 is worth the effort and so I just buy one $10,000 bond per year.
by z3r0c00l
Tue Jun 26, 2018 6:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing $1000 into VTSMX ETFs - Good Idea?
Replies: 21
Views: 1126

Re: Investing $1000 into VTSMX ETFs - Good Idea?

I personally wouldn't do any investing until I had enough to buy a mutual fund, e.g. $3000, to spare. The reason why is I like to keep a healthy emergency fund around. When first starting out, I built up a solid $12,000 in a CD and savings account before even thinking about investing.
by z3r0c00l
Sat Jun 23, 2018 8:15 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is this all investing is?
Replies: 38
Views: 3859

Re: Is this all investing is?

Travel to other parts of the country/world. It will change your outlook on life.
by z3r0c00l
Wed Jun 20, 2018 6:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bogleheads smarter than the bond market?
Replies: 40
Views: 4375

Re: Are Bogleheads smarter than the bond market?

Total bond now paying 3.12%, perfectly happy with that. Anyone pretending to know future rate changes is delusional. 5 year CDs are a valid alternative but hardly a free lunch and rather illiquid.
by z3r0c00l
Mon Jun 11, 2018 5:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dividend Buffer
Replies: 24
Views: 2350

Re: Dividend Buffer

SP500 dividend yield is actually below the rate of inflation. While that statement might be true, what matters is whether the rate of increase in dividends exceeds the rate of inflation. Historically speaking, it has. Though I haven't seen any studies, I would suspect the dividend growth rate is hi...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Jun 08, 2018 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dividend Buffer
Replies: 24
Views: 2350

Re: Dividend Buffer

Dividends have fallen considerably in the last few decades, due to some extent on tax policy that makes buybacks more attractive. SP500 dividend yield is actually below the rate of inflation. This withdrawal rate is so conservative that even a conservative like myself thinks you will deprive yoursel...
by z3r0c00l
Fri Jun 08, 2018 7:45 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Funds
Replies: 7
Views: 794

Re: Bond Funds

A quick and depressing reminder: you won't grow 3% after taxes and inflation. (2018 inflation likely to be around 2.6%.) If anything, expect to about break even after taxes and inflation. Low risk - low return is in effect here. A 5 year CD will give you 3% without volatility, an intermediate bond f...
by z3r0c00l
Tue May 29, 2018 10:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What do you guys do on the side?
Replies: 299
Views: 30702

Re: The Side Hustle

I work in online education on the graduate level in my field. Amounts to about an extra $1000 per month in a good year. Online education is great because you can contribute to it at any time when you are free, could be late at night, early mornings. And helping to shape the minds of the next generat...
by z3r0c00l
Wed May 23, 2018 7:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Typical interest rate earned by target date funds in retirement?
Replies: 28
Views: 2113

Re: Typical interest rate earned by target date funds in retirement?

Is there a common interest rate that people use once they enter retirement and begin drawing retirement? For instance, would a target date earn 3% interest once it reaches the target date (on average, over 30 years)? Interest isn't really the right term. You have price appreciation and dividends (w...
by z3r0c00l
Tue May 22, 2018 5:30 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Total Bond Market
Replies: 12
Views: 2027

Re: Total Bond Market

The fund becomes more attractive as the yield goes up. You pay a price in lower NAV if you hold during the change. The pros: Low volatility The cons: Low return I think assuming what bonds will do in the future is a losing game. What if interest rates settle out around this level and stay there for ...
by z3r0c00l
Sun May 20, 2018 9:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Re: done with Gmail
Replies: 114
Views: 12637

Re: done with Gmail

Been using Gmail almost from its first day, have a dozen accounts and they all work well, now easy to run them all tabbed as needed. Almost unlimited storage, free, simple, what more does one want? I use outlook for work through MS Office 360. It has the power options we need at a large company. Ano...
by z3r0c00l
Sun May 20, 2018 6:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sub-par options from employer 403b
Replies: 7
Views: 255

Re: Sub-par options from employer 403b

Not to pile on, but I would die for some of these in my 401K. They are 10x cheaper than any of my options. "Vanguard Institutional Index Fund Institutional Shares (VINIX)" is a remarkably cheap fund, institutional class, with a $5 million minimum for individuals. Whoever is picking these funds is ma...
by z3r0c00l
Sun May 20, 2018 6:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: $1,700,000 from family trust...
Replies: 83
Views: 10689

Re: $1,700,000 from family trust...

Congrats on the windfall! I would indeed suggest taking it slow at first, putting the money in a safe place while you decide how to us it. A safe place is a bank account, money market fund, etc. First, I would max out your 401K. Your tax bracket appears poised to go up. Paying down debt is absolutel...
by z3r0c00l
Wed May 16, 2018 7:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: YTD: VBTLX down 2.28%; VBILX down 2.99%; VTSAX down 0.23%
Replies: 106
Views: 11050

Re: YTD: VBTLX down 2.28%; VBILX down 2.99%; VTSAX down 0.23%

I would describe the last few months as "sideways." Boring yes, but nothing to worry about.